Musti Group Oyj
OMXH:MUSTI
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Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Musti Group Oyj
Musti Group has been trailblazing through its third quarter with vigor, exhibiting resilience and agility in an ambiguous economic landscape. CEO David Ronnberg and CFO Toni Rannikko presented a compelling narrative of growth, showcasing a robust 15.6% net sales increase in local currency, translating into an 8.2% rise in euros. An especially commendable like-for-like growth of 10.2% outpaced the preceding three quarters' 8.3%, signaling a positive momentum. Adjusted EBITDA ascended by 10.9% to reach EUR 17.3 million, while loyalty membership also saw an 8% surge, highlighting the brand's strengthening rapport with consumers.
Musti Group's strategic initiatives in end-to-end supply chain optimization and logistics restructuring bore fruit with a record cash flow of EUR 22 million, a jaw-dropping 57% increase over the last year. Executives took pride in the firm's improved cost control and scalability, which alongside sales growth, propelled profitability. Adjusted EBITDA margin inched higher from 16.3% to 16.7%, while EBITA climbed to EUR 9.5 million, 14.4% higher than the previous year, notwithstanding foreign exchange headwinds.
The food category, representing over 50% of sales, demonstrated remarkable stability with 15% to 20% growth. Conversely, the higher-than-usual previous year comparisons, compounded with fluctuations in discretionary and consumable goods, temporarily dampened growth in these segments. Nonetheless, the company's projections were optimistic, anticipating a bounce-back as they encounter easier comparisons and resume proactive category management.
Musti Group's online verticals continue to thrive, defying the stagnation seen elsewhere with a robust 20% growth in the quarter and prospects for continued expansion. The company is setting its sights on gaining more market share, particularly in Norway and Finland, by intensifying its efforts and seizing opportunities presented by competitors' lesser focus in these regions. Online profitability remained consistent with the overall business, dispelling any notions of channel discrepancies.
Financially, the company stands well-capitalized with a net debt to last 12 months EBITDA adjusted ratio of 2.1, well below the targeted ceiling. Additionally, Musti Group secured the acquisition of Premium Pet Food Finland, deepening their foray into self-produced goods. Gross margins have shown resilience and are forecasted to recover to the previous year's standards.
Challenges stemming from foreign exchange rates, notably impacting Norway and Sweden's performance, have been addressed through operational efficiency and scale. Musti Group's proximity to both new and legacy consumer trends, combined with a stabilization in discretionary spending, positions it favorably for upcoming quarters.
The company looks to enhance its proprietary food production, aiming to boost its self-manufactured share from the current 25-28% to an ambitious 70%. The strategy underscores a commitment to sovereignty over quality and supply chain. Additionally, with an eye on international expansion, Musti Group is exploring opportunities beyond their established triad of markets, envisaging an omnichannel offering fortified by a vigorous online presence.
In sum, Musti Group is poised to capitalize on its operational strengths, strategic market positioning, and financial prudence. As they continue to navigate market volatility, their established trajectory of growth and market share acquisition offers a narrate of optimism for investors and stakeholders alike.
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Hi, everyone, and welcome to the Musti Q3 presentation. My name is David Ronnberg. I'm CEO for the company. And with us, we also have Toni Rannikko, that is CFO. We will go through the presentation, starting now.
We can see that our double-digit like-for-like with increasing EBITA margin has been very, very strong for the quarter. And I'm extremely proud of what Musti has achieved during our third quarter period. Net sales increased with 15.6% in local currency and 8.2% in euro. Like-for-like increased with 10.2%, and last 3 quarters, we increased 8.3%. So we have a good trend. Our adjusted EBITDA was EUR 17.3 million, an increase with 10.9%. And we also increased our loyalty members with 8%.
Something that we're extremely proud about is, of course, our cash flow. We've been working a lot with our end-to-end supply chain and also our logistics in Eskilstuna, and this is now bearing fruit. So our cash flow was a record and came in at EUR 22 million, which was actually an increase versus last year with 57%.
If we look at the blue bubbles there, year-to-date, we are showing a good trend in most of our KPIs. Sales, EUR 315.4 million, an increase with 14.7% in local currency. Our adjusted EBITDA, EUR 53 million, which is an increase by 8%. And also, as we know, we have a huge FX impact the last 9 months or 12 months. So from a sales perspective, we actually had a -- we had a headwind with 6% on sales. So if we adjust for that, we end up at EUR 332 million instead of the EUR 315 million, if we have FX adjusted year-to-date. And if we look at EBITDA, it's actually EUR 4 million. So instead of EUR 53 million that we had in the period, we are EUR 57 million, FX-adjusted.
So company performing well on most of these KPIs that we're going through. So let's look through the third quarter more in detail. As I said, strong like-for-like and increased profitability in the quarter. Net sales, 8.2% growth, ended up at EUR 103.3 million. Local currency, that is 15% -- 15.6% growth, so stable and good growth in all markets.
Like-for-like, also strong, over 10%, came in at last year, 8.3%. So we are seeing higher growth in food than in other categories as before. Group adjusted EBITDA increased with 10.9% to EUR 17.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.7% versus 16.3%. So we also saw an uplift also there. We see this increased profitability due to, of course, growth. And now we're also seeing the scalability and cost control in the company that we've been working with for a long time.
In the EBITA, that came in at EUR 9.5 million. We see an increase with 14.4%. Here, we have an FX effect, negative impact of EUR 0.8 million. And on the EBITA, it was about EUR 1 million. Number of loyal customers grew 8%, so now we have 1.52 million customers approximately. And if you look at all the loyal customers, including the registered customers in our online verticals, it's about 1.85 million customers. And as I said before, cash flow was a very positive number, coming in at EUR 22.1 million.
We can move on and look more into our sales categories. So we look at the food and the consumables and discretionary products. We can see that food is overall, extremely stable. We can see that discretionary and consumables are swinging a bit more. We see also that we have been meeting higher comps last third quarter, especially in consumables and discretionary. So that's why the growth has been coming down in those categories. Promising is that food that stands for more than 50% is stable and going upwards, showing 15% to 20% growth.
And also, we can see that even though we have been a bit slower on the discretionary, which is the most impacted category in this tough environment that we're seeing now, the category has been growing with 5% or more the last 12 months. But these kind of swings occurs. And the last third quarter, we had clearance actions. And looking forward, we will see that this will bounce back when we're meeting easier comps and also continue our good work in these categories. And food, as you can see, was 57% of sales in the quarter.
So let's look more into our online sales. Online continues to have a stable growth. Online sales in a lot of other businesses has been coming down, but we are seeing the opposite. If we look at the right diagram, you can see that we have had 20% growth in the quarter. The last 3 quarters, we've been between about 16% to 20% growth, maybe with an average of 18%. So a good momentum.
We are meeting -- after the COVID period, we have seen stable double-digit growth. And that's building on top of those high-growth quarters. We believe that this will continue going forward. We also see that we have more to gain here, especially in Norway and Finland, where we're going to push even harder going forward. We believe that we can take even more market share from our competitors in these 2 countries. And we are also doing a lot of things to gain market share more in Sweden and Norway. So that will continue going forward.
So let's look more into the sales. Yes, we had a strong sales in the quarter. As I said, we ended up at EUR 103.3 million. If we look at FX neutral growth, it was 15.6. If we look at the countries for the third quarter. Finland had 15% growth, very strong trend last 6 months. We had good growth in stores and very strong online. Sweden had 12% growth in local currency. Good growth in stores and online. Norway had 27% growth in local currency, very strong growth in stores and online.
We know that we can do more from an online perspective in Sweden, Norway, as I said, and that we will push going forward. Online share of sales came in at 23.5% versus last year at 22.6%. So we saw a bit of an uplift of the share of sales in online. CAGR year-to-date sales growth, 2020 to 2023 has been steady at 15%, as you see in the middle chart. If you look at the rolling 12 months, that came in at EUR 417 million. If we FX adjust it, we are at EUR 435 million now. And per segment, as before, Finland still has the biggest share of 45.9%.
So let's look more into our like-for-like. Strong growth of 16% in local currency, as I said, and strong like-for-like, double-digit, 10.2%. FX has been impacting this revenue, of course, as before. It has been increasing. So in the quarter, it was 7%. Last quarter was 5% impact. Sweden has been impacted with 11%, and Norway, 20% in the quarter. When we look at the like-for-like, it has been even stronger actually than the growth if we look at the trends. So like-for-like, 10.2%, last quarter, 8.3%. So we see an uplift. We can also see that since Q3 2022, we've seen a stable upgoing like-for-like trend. And now we are at 10%, 11% the last 2 quarters. This is promising, of course, going forward.
So let's look at our gross margin development. Our gross margin and our O&E is in a stable part. We can see that Musti's gross margin decreased a bit from 46.4% to 45.7%. We should also remember that we're meeting quite high comps. We have a negative impact from the FX exchange rate, SEK and NOK into euro that is impacting this. But also the positive thing here is that we're seeing that the deviation in gross margin versus last year is shrinking.
This was actually -- if you look at the trend perspective this year versus last year in gross margin development deviation, we see that the trend is going the positive way. And we believe that next quarter, we will be able to reach last year's gross margin. We're also meeting easier comps. This is, of course, driven through our great work with campaigning. And also, of course, our O&E percentage of sales. As you can see on the right side, that has been very stable versus last year and also the last 12 months.
So with this, I will hand over to Toni that will go through the profitability.
Thank you, David, and hi, everybody. My name is Toni Rannikko, CFO, Musti Group. So during the quarter, we managed to increase both our EBITA and our EBITDA margin. We feel that this was a really good achievement in this market, and also noting that there was a quite high impact negatively from the SEK and NOK during the quarter, totaling almost into a EUR 1 million level. Reasons behind the good performance in the profitability was a good traffic in our stores and online, integrating our new production factory, price increases where we mitigated inflation and especially, tight cost control that we have been working a long time already.
Coming back to the production integration. So if you look at the group functions cost compared to net sales, it improved from the last year. But in the accounting, we handled the production facility, same way as our central warehouse. So the direct and overhead cost there is part of the group functions. So this integration of Premium Pet Food Finland into Musti Group with 100% increased the group functions cost with roughly EUR 1 million during the quarter. Net, it is, of course, positive -- slightly positive. And also notable that during the first month of the quarter, we could only recognize the cost and top line in the company, but not the profitability yet.
So in the quarter 4, Premium Pet Food Finland, part of Musti Group has been firing with all the cylinders throughout the quarter.
If we move forward, looking at the segments. So first, Finland, great performance from team Finland increasing net sales with over 15% due to kind of a strong growth both in online and stores and good traffic in these both channels. Price increases and the acquisition of Premium Pet Food Finland as well contributed into this one. But still, really strong like-for-like growth, over 11%. And good performance in the profitability over the time.
So in the history, Finland records have been around 24% on EBITA. And then we have adjusted a bit on the hours in the stores and how we run the country and promise to you that we will climb back to around 22% profitability level. So we are delivering on that plan steadily.
Next one is Sweden. We can see the heavy hit on the SEK in Sweden performance, but in local currencies and like-for-like, really good performance from Sweden. A bit of a down on the profitability, but this was caused mainly or solely due to the FX exchanges. We opened 2 new stores or acquired 2 new franchise stores during the quarter in Sweden and are soon to be completed with the franchise acquisitions.
Then moving to Norway, getting the toughest beating during the quarter on the exchange rate, 20% hit, like David mentioned there on the previous slides. We have been able to mitigate the inflation part on the price increases, but not this massive FX hit felt by Norway. Adjusted EBITA decreased in Norway as well only due to the FX rate. Adjusted EBITA margin being now 13.6%, and we opened 2 new stores in Norway.
Then if we move to the financial position. David already mentioned, we were managing -- managed to put together a record cash flow. And the reason behind this are long-term work with our end-to-end supply chain. So already over a year ago, together with McKinsey, we created a plan, and now our teams have been executing that excellently. And this is now resulting in strong cash flow during the quarter, and we can see the trend continuing as well further.
Net debt increased a bit during the quarter. Reason there was the acquisition of Premium Pet Food Finland, which had a depth of around EUR 10 million. So that was the only change here. So net debt splitted into the loans, and lease liabilities are pretty much half and half. We are still well below our target, with the last 12 months EBITDA adjusted to net debt was 2.1 multiple. We have good cash position at the end of the quarter, and investments roughly on the last year level in our expansion plan.
On the next page, we have our long-term targets. They remain unchanged, and only a small notice to a dividend policy. So Musti pays dividend in 2 portions during the year, and now the second portion of this fiscal is executed on 29th of this month. So through this, I hand over back to David and the summary of presentation.
Thank you, Toni. So I think the summary is stable performance. We can see there on the charts that if we start from a top-line perspective, Q3 over 4 years, 2020 to 2023, we have been growing with 15%. We've seen that the gross margin has been increasing a lot, as you see there in the line, and then it was coming down a bit. We see that we're going to meet easier comps. So we believe that will continue going upwards.
If we then look at the cost side, scalability, the warehouse, we've seen that, that is going into our favor now. We have good performance there. So the EBITDA and the EBITA is growing well, 16% on the EBITDA and 14% as you see on the EBITA, both the percentage EBITDA and the percentage EBITA margins are now starting to go upwards the right way. We have been showing that we had a record cash flow in the quarter, EUR 22 million, last 12 months is EUR 64 million. If we have been looking at the EBITDA, last 12 months is EUR 72 million. If we adjust for FX, it's about EUR 76 million. And we are on track on our long-term financial targets.
So a very stable performance in the quarter and also the last 9 months. So good performance from our side, and we're happy with the report. So with that, I would like to hand over to Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Svante Krokfors from Nordea.
I have a number of questions. A couple of questions, take them one by one. First, regarding the like-for-like growth, price increases and volume growth. So the like-for-like was 10% and price increases 10%, indicating flat volumes. Could you elaborate a bit on the volumes in the different categories, food, consumables and discretionary? And also on the price increases in -- is there -- I guess, there is bigger price increases in food than in other segments?
Exactly. Then we have seen -- we have done a bit more price increases in food. We've seen that other competitors like groceries, et cetera, has been increasing their prices more than we have still, and we have increased the prices more in food than the other categories. Overall, like-for-like, 10%. As you said, with 10% price increases shows that the traffic and the footfall has been more or less flat in the quarter. So we have been working with -- and also, we've been slowing down with opening stores, which, of course, also have an impact on that part. But it's also a planned -- it's planned and also part of the strategy.
And then on gross margin, the dip there. Clearly, FX is the biggest explanation there, but you also mentioned sales mix. Is it bigger from product mix than from channel mix, your online share include at least...
Yes, it is. Last year, we had a bit of a clearance in the categories, discretionary and consumables that we're meeting. The good thing is that the deviation versus last year is actually now the smallest deviation for a long while in the last quarters. And we believe that from a trend-wise perspective, we believe that the gross margin now will come up to last year levels.
And what trends do you see in supplier prices currently?
Yes, I can hand over to you, Toni.
Yes, we can clearly see that the inflation pressure is coming down. Looking at the kind of macro data, so the last 3 months, inflation starts to be on a 1% level, and last month, inflation close to 0%. And we can also see this in -- in the real life, that there is not so much pressure on the price increases from the suppliers anymore.
Then on the competitive landscape. Looking at Finland, one of your competitors seems to be in quite severe financial troubles. I think they have filed for bankruptcy, if I haven't mistaken. Could you comment a bit on that impact on you? And also regarding the online side, you said that in Finland and Norway, you believe that you can continue to increase market share. Does that mean that, for example, zooplus to mention, 1 is not focusing so much on the Nordics currently?
Exactly. So I think in Finland, it shows that the kind of a concept that we're having is still working extremely well and taking market share, and we've done this for a long time. And now -- and now the last kind of a specialist chain, a smaller one, is having problems, which will have a positive impact, of course for us because, yes, less competition. And we are also looking in to actually take over some of the stores. So that will go.
So zooplus feels that they are focusing more in other geographical areas. They still are, of course, operating and so on, but they are not pushing as hard that they may be done in earlier years. We believe that we're going to take more market share in Sweden and Norway. There are still some -- if you take out the competitors in the groceries, there are still some smaller chains that we now are going to push harder against. And I think with the growth that we're seeing now, we are clearly taking market share, and we will also push even harder in those geographical areas.
And then on the cost side, your personnel cost as percentage of sales came down quite significantly. I guess this is -- has mainly to do with the operating leverage. But is this kind of a level that we should assume now going forward also in absolute terms?
Yes, I think we have achieved quite a lot on that and start to be on the levels that we feel are sustainable, but still, there is I think, room to improve still on the future as well.
I think also what we mentioned 2 quarters before and also last quarter was that we have done -- we have done -- we have initiated projects and done changes in a slow way instead of doing quick changes that can have an impact on sales, et cetera. So -- and now, the last 2 months, I would say, we're clearly seeing this cost coming down. But from a trend perspective, we believe that can continue a bit more.
Thanks. And any change in your outlook for the J curve of new stores?
No. No. Performing well.
The next question comes from Adela Dashian from Jefferies.
Yes. Good morning. A couple of questions from me. The first one relates to your comment about wanting to expand your online presence. And I know we touched a bit on the competitive landscape there with the previous questions just asked. But could you talk a bit more about what your strategy entails here? Will you expand your presence through M&A? Can you do it organically? And then on top of that, should we view competition as being more intensified online in relation to your physical stores? Do you meet the same type of peers there? Or is there a different behavior that could either prove to be an opportunity or a challenge for you going forward?
So this is -- everything that we're looking into is organic in Sweden and Norway when we're talking about the online that we're going to extend the pressure into Sweden and Norway. We're still opening stores, et cetera. So it's nothing else with that strategy, but we're seeing that our online verticals can grow faster than earlier, and there are things that we are working with clear -- only organically, so no M&As in that part for taking more market share in those 2 countries.
And the reason why we believe it so much is that we're seeing very, very good trends before we actually have pushed the marketing to levels that we believe is in a peak and there are more to do there.
We've been working with the offering. We've been working with shipments. We've been working with the supply chain, et cetera. So I think now, we are ready to push even harder, and that will have an impact in Sweden and Norway on the competitors for sure. And it doesn't really -- it doesn't really only impact the online competitors. It's all the competitors that drive stores only or online.
Yes. That makes sense. And please do remind me. You previously said that there isn't a big difference between your profitability prospects online versus physical? Or is there one?
Exactly. So especially when we look at the omni online, not to be too detailed, but when we have the online sales that has the same products and same O&E share, it's channel-agnostic from a profitability perspective.
Yes. Got it. And then your comment about the inflationary pressures coming down and that being positive, a positive tailwind for you going forward. What are you doing on your price increases? Should we expect the same type of pace of price increases in the second half of the year? Or are you also, I guess, stabilizing your initiatives there?
Yes, that's a good question. I think currently, we are bit of on a pause with the price increases, and then we evaluate what we do on the food side more in the near future. But -- we can then enjoy kind of this bit calmer environment at the moment with the price increases coming from the supplier. So that's true.
Great. And then finally, you previously in the year touched briefly about your expansionary ambitions when it comes to going into new markets outside of Nordics. Is that still something that is in your near-term forecast? Or are we pushing those initiatives to the future?
No, I think being able to show these nice numbers and the stableness that we have in the company, I think we are more ready now than we were 9 months ago or 12 months ago when inflation was hitting us more. And now we see this stable company can take the next step outside the 3 countries. So we are currently looking into it.
And from that perspective, does the competitive landscape differ too much from what you're facing in your legacy markets?
I think all the 3 markets that we operate today differs between each other a bit. So I think we just need to find the perfect tailored concept and mitigate a bit into these new markets that we look into. But it will clearly be an omni offering with strong online presence.
The next question comes from Calle Loikkanen from Danske Bank.
I have 2 questions actually related to Norway. First of all, how did margins in Norway develop in local currency in the quarter?
Right. Do you have that, Toni?
In the local currencies, I recall the development was positive in Norway as well.
Okay. Okay. That's good to hear. And then perhaps going forward, looking at Q4 and perhaps the next couple of quarters as well, and again, staying on Norway. The EBITA margin in Norway is down year-to-date, some 3.6 percentage points. Do you think that the margins in Q4 and in the next quarters will be under similar kind of pressure or say, magnitude of pressure that we've seen year-to-date? Or are there any reasons why margins could be down less than that in Norway?
It's not about the currency, and it's still getting a beating. So at the moment, it doesn't look sort of easier in the near future for Norway, unfortunately.
Yes. Okay. Okay. That's clear. And then perhaps on Sweden, I mean the currency impact in Sweden as well, quite tough. But I guess, is it fair to assume that the kind of J curve that you've been talking about, that has kind of mitigated the impact in margins from the FX in third quarter? Is that the right way to think about it?
To some extent, and then operational efficiency and scalability and how we have been running Sweden kind of having a lot more stores than Norway and how to leverage that platform. So that has helped as well. But of course, the J curves are part of that cocktail.
The next question comes from Maria Wikstrom from SEB.
Yes. I think most of my questions have been already answered, but I still have a few which -- the first one is -- I mean, touching on the trends if we look at the consumables and discretionary. So food, of course, I mean, for the quarter was doing great. But the growth rates were coming down on both consumables and discretionary. So would you say that this is more -- just more the impact of a higher comps for these segments? Or do we see like some changes in the consumer purchasing habits, which would result that we are going to see weaker trends also in the next quarter?
No, we're meeting higher comps. That's the main reason. And then we also had some availability issues in some of the consumables in the quarter. But this is bouncing back. Of course, discretionary is on a lower pace than earlier years. That we know. But it's still growing. But I think what we've seen in this quarter is mainly driven through the high comps. So we will see a bounce back in the current quarter.
And maybe continuing from there, what have you -- have you seen any changes in the consumer purchasing habits now in July and then early August? I mean, some of the retailers in Finland have said that, I mean, it has basically maybe lifted a little bit better for July or August. Or do you see any changes. I mean, what comes to the upcoming Q4 versus the now the report in Q3?
Yes. So I think our performance shows a stable trend going upwards, which means that July and August looks, from a trend perspective, a bit better than Q3.
Perfect. And then, I mean, finally, if you could a little bit help me to basically incorporate the impact of the acquisition of Premium Pet Food that like -- what is the trajectory, how you will increase -- I mean, purchasing from your own factory to your own and exclusive, I mean, brand portfolio? So if you can repeat that, how much currently from the O&E is coming from the Premium Pet Food factory, and then how much you expected it within 1 or 2 years to come?
Yes, maybe I can take that. So currently, I think we are somewhere around 25% to 28% of our own food in production in that factory. And during next couple of years, the plan is to push that into -- up to 70% share own production.
Perfect. And then my final question would be, as you speak with a lot of the breeders across the Nordics and what's the currently -- I mean, what's your feeling that what are people's willingness to take new puppies?
No changes, we would say, same as before. The good thing is that we're starting to meet these comps now. And also the kind of a COVID peak is starting to fade away when we're meeting those comps. So we're back to stable numbers, I would say. And also important is that the number of puppies we're getting into our system of all the puppies out there is still on a very, very high level, plus 50% -- 55%, 60%.
There are no more questions at this time. So I hand the conference back to the speakers for any closing comments.
Okay. Thanks, everyone, for listening. I think we are proud of the report. We have good trends. And it's obvious that we are gaining and taking market share. We will try to push harder going forward. Thanks very much. Bye-bye.