Mandatum Oyj

OMXH:MANTA

Earnings Call Analysis

Mandatum Q1 2024: Strong Growth and Solid Financials

Mandatum’s Q1 2024 demonstrated remarkable financial performance with a 47% spike in profit before tax to EUR 47 million. Earnings per share rose by 60% to EUR 0.08, driven by an uptick in net finance results. Client assets under management surged by 16% to EUR 12.5 billion, benefiting from a net flow of EUR 246 million. Institutional & Wealth Management led the growth with a 13.2% increase. The solvency ratio stood robust at 216.5%, comfortably above the long-term target. The company’s disciplined pricing and strong sales activities were key contributors to this success.

Strong Start to 2024

Mandatum began 2024 with impressive financial results, highlighted by a 47% increase in profit before tax, totaling EUR 47 million. Earnings per share also rose significantly, soaring by 60% to EUR 0.08. The overall performance signals a robust operational environment and effective management. The cost to income ratio showed slight improvement to 65%, while the return on equity was 9.3%, indicating efficient capital utilization.

Fee Income and Asset Growth

The company's fee income rose by 9% to EUR 15 million, driven mainly by a remarkable 16% year-on-year growth in assets under management, which expanded to EUR 12.5 billion. Notably, when adjusting for a one-off gain in the previous year's comparison, the fee result would reflect a more robust 18% increase. The asset management fee result saw a robust year-on-year growth of 22%, underscoring Mandatum's effectiveness in increasing client assets.

Market Conditions and Strategic Positioning

Mandatum's market positioning remains strong, with a solid solvency ratio standing at 216.5% (adjusted for dividend accrual). The company is focusing on higher returns and managing risks effectively amid market fluctuations. There was a noted decrease in equity weight in their with-profit portfolio, reflecting a strategic shift towards cash conservation and investment-grade credits, which is impacting the mark-to-market yield.

Organic Capital Generation and Net Flows

Organic capital generation amounted to EUR 69 million during the quarter, showcasing the company's strong financial health. The net flow reached EUR 246 million, surpassing the company's medium-term target of 5% of assets under management, with actual growth reflecting an annualized 8%. This outperformance signifies positive market sentiment and client satisfaction, which remains high across all segments.

Future Guidance and Expectations

Looking ahead, Mandatum aims to sustain its growth trajectory through disciplined pricing and improved asset management strategies. The company is cautious regarding potential share buybacks or special dividends until its non-core assets are optimally managed. Management is set to evaluate M&A opportunities that clearly demonstrate shareholder value addition while maintaining a conservative approach to debt.

Investment Strategy and Market Sentiment

The focus on institutional and wealth management continues to drive growth, with especially noted success from international institutions. The company emphasized a strong correlation between its product offerings and current market conditions, showing resilience and adaptability in a dynamic investment landscape. With plans to carefully manage their non-core assets like Saxo and Enento, Mandatum is positioning itself for long-term strategic success.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Lotta Borgström, executive]

Good afternoon, and welcome to Mandatum's Q1 audiocast. My name is Lotta Borgström, I'm in charge of Investor Relations at Mandatum, and I am pleased to be joined by our CEO, Petri Niemisvirta; our new CFO, Matti Ahokas; as well as the CEO for Mandatum Life Insurance Company, also the former CFO, Jukka Kurki.

During this audiocast, Petri Niemisvirta and Matti Ahokas will initially walk you through the highlights and key developments of today's report. After which, we'll take the Q&A where you have the possibility to dial in for any questions. Also, please don't hesitate to contact us at Investor Relations should you have any further questions.

With these remarks, I hand over to you, Petri. Please go ahead.

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

Thank you, Lotta, and welcome, everyone, to Mandatum's Q1 results presentation. Let me start with our Q1 numbers. After which, I will dive deeper into our business. Matti will continue more closely with the result in his presentation.

Mandatum's first quarter was good in many ways. The profit before taxes increased by almost 50%, mostly due to increase in net finance result. Also, the fee result increased by 9%, mainly as a result of the increase in client assets and indicating steady performance in our capital-light business areas, such as institutional wealth management.

The net flow during the quarter amounted to EUR 246 million and contributed to the clients' assets under management that increased by 16% to EUR 12.5 billion. All this being achievements, I'm very pleased with.

Mandatum's solvency position continued to be solid. The solvency ratio was 216.5% adjusted for dividend accrual. Also, we succeeded in the organic capital generation during the quarter.

Client assets under management increased by 5% during the first quarter, reaching EUR 12.5 billion. The growth rates in all segments were even and showed steady growth even if the client and asset mix varied a lot between the segments.

One of our most important financial target is the annual net flow. In medium term, Mandatum aims for a net flow of 5% of the client assets under management. The net flow of almost EUR 250 million during the quarter equals annualized more than 8% of our assets under management, which is well above the target.

I'm also content with the fact that all our segments reached positive net flow during the first quarter, led by our fastest-growing area, Institutional & Wealth management, with a 13.2% growth.

A really good sales activity contributed to the strong inflow and the client outflow remained low, partly due to the consistently high level of customer satisfaction. The positive market movements contribution to the increase in client assets under management was EUR 369 million.

All in all, we haven't seen any softening in the market and product mix and our product offering is working very well in the current market environment.

The growth engine in our strategy is the Institutional & Wealth management business. The highest growth in asset under management as well as in the net flow came from the Institutional & Wealth management business.

Within that business area, all client segments grew. The biggest growth in assets under management came from the subsegment international institutions. The modest growth in the subsegment, Private Wealth management, is explained by some large accounts being transferred to the subsegment ultra-high net worth.

Then over to the different product areas. Mandatum's core competence is within credit products where the growth was strongest, 11%. The mark-to-market yields in our credit and fixed income products were still at a high level and the good performance give additional support to our sales. I'm also happy that the positive trend within our allocation products continued within -- with strong growth numbers during the Q1.

The fee income was up 10%, supported by increase in assets under management and stable fee margin levels. Despite the fact that most of our sales was related to credit and fixed income type of products, our fee income margin remained at the same level, meaning that we have had a good discipline in our pricing, which is also one of our final share targets.

And now over to you, Matti.

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Thank you very much, Petri. Good afternoon. Let me touch a bit on the financial highlights of the quarter. Our profit before tax has increased by 47% to EUR 47 million, and earnings per share increased by 60% to EUR 0.08. Our cost to income ratio improved slightly to 65% and our return on equity to 9.3% in the quarter.

So let's look at some of the result components. Firstly, our fee result increased by 9% to EUR 15 million compared to the first quarter of 2023. The main reason for this was a 16% year-on-year growth in assets under management and a clearly positive net flow, and Petri already explained some of the key drivers behind this.

It's worth noting that the comparison figure for the fee result in Q1 '23 included a one-off gain. Actually, a CSM loss component recovery of EUR 1.2 million. And adjusting for this, the fee result would have increased by 18%, so more in line with the assets under management growth. Actually, our asset management fee result increased by 22% year-on-year.

Our net finance results more than doubled to EUR 30 million compared to the first quarter of '23. I'll come back to the details of this a bit later.

And then the result related to risk policies was slightly down to a lower CSM release, but this is a small item and can vary between quarters.

So going over to the net finance result. As you know, this includes mainly the net investment results for the with-profit business. In the first quarter, the net finance results stood at EUR 29.9 million. This translates to an investment return of 0.9% compared to 1.8% in the first quarter of '23. Note that the first quarter last year was affected by the very positive equity market returns but also a very good fixed income returns.

Our fixed income asset return was 1.1% in the quarter. This is actually slightly below the expected return of the portfolio. And the main reasons for this was mainly the higher share of cash in the portfolio as well as some negative mark-to-market changes from higher rates.

Our listed equities returned 2.6% in the quarter and other investments, 0.2% to 0.5%. I think it's worth noting that we have continued to decrease the equity weight in the with-profit portfolio also during this quarter, and this has also had an impact on the returns.

In addition, changes in the value of our stake in Enento had a EUR 4 million negative impact in the quarter. This was actually positive in the fourth quarter. And finally also, our private equity investment returns were very low in the quarter.

If we then turn to the cost of liabilities, they decreased to EUR 6 million compared to EUR 58 million in the comparison quarter. The main reason for this was the around 10 basis point higher discount rate that decreased finance costs of insurance liabilities by a total of EUR 13 million. During the same period last year, the decreased discount rate had actually a negative effect of EUR 41 million on the finance cost. Unwinding costs were EUR 19 million, so roughly at the same level as the previous year.

If we then look at our solvency ratio, our Solvency II ratio was 221% at the minimum in the first quarter and at 216% when you adjust for the dividend accrual, which is the new thing we show on this slide.

Note that the regulatory symmetrical adjustment for equities was increased by 4 percentage points. So the SCR for listed equities increased to 44% in Q1, and this actually had a negative impact of 5 percentage points on the solvency ratio. So adjusted for that, it was unchanged quarter-on-quarter. All in all, the solvency ratio remains comfortably above the 170% to 200% long-term target range.

Our organic capital generation, which we use as a KPI, was EUR 69 million during the quarter, supported by a continued reduction in the SCR and a capital release in the with-profit book.

Back to you, Petri, for some closing remarks.

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

Thank you, Matti. So to conclude, I'm very pleased with our Q1 results. We had a good start to the year 2024, and we performed in line with our financial targets. Our core competencies are valid in the current business and market environment, and we have laid excellent groundwork for year 2024.

This was all from my part. Now let's move on to questions and answers. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Hans Rettedal Christiansen from Danske Bank.

[Hans Rettedal Christiansen, analyst]

I just had a couple of questions. Firstly, starting on the AUM side and specifically on the retail AUM. You've had quite good growth now over the 2 quarters. And I was just wondering sort of what the underlying drivers of this? And if it's perhaps the Danske agreement that is sort of working better than it has been over the past couple of years or if there's anything else to keep in mind there?

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

This is Petri Niemisvirta here answering. Yes, yes, I'm happy with the process of what we have seen in the Danske cooperation as well. There are no one silver bullet or one explanation for a good process, but let me put some of them. I guess one thing is that, as you mentioned, that new agreement in last autumn and process we have done together with Danske and the cooperation in, let's say, new start and in different mood and extremely good cooperation and feelings between each other has affected so that there is now really clear, which is on both sides, to increase the business and grow the business. And I guess also the Danske is more on growth mood in Finnish banking, and Finnish banking business in all areas, which is affecting positively to our business as well.

So a lot of good changes, not, no special changes in products and so on, but it's improving products, improving the business and the cooperation. There's a lot of smaller things which are now affecting a very positive way.

[Hans Rettedal Christiansen, analyst]

Okay. That's very clear. And then I was also wondering on the mark-to-market yield that you gave in the presentation, which now stands at 5.3%, down from 5.7% in sort of moving in the opposite direction that I would have assumed, given the slight increase in rates over the quarter. And I assume that's because you're shifting into more investment-grade credit.

So I was just wondering what sort of normalized level perhaps we could think about once you're done with this to ongoing shift in the investment allocation?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Yes. Thanks for the question. As pointed out in the with-profit portfolio, we are in the kind of cash conservation mode, basically due to internal dividend payouts planned later on in the year. So that is impacting the asset allocation. We have a clearly higher share of cash than previously in the portfolio. But in general, you should expect a slight increase of that. This is more of a tactical allocation and based on the internal dividends.

Jukka, anything from the Life side that one should kind of think about here?

[Jukka Kurki, executive]

Well, you're right that we are preparing to pay dividends at the end of this year and also, as we have not made any decisions related to Tier 2 loan, which is first call rate is coming. We're also preparing possibly for that when it comes to increasing our cash position. And yes, you are right that we have continued this transfer from high yield to investment grade. All this has impact on the mark-to-market yield.

[Hans Rettedal Christiansen, analyst]

Okay. And then just finally for me on the sort of noncore assets that you hold. There's been some speculation in the press over the past, over Q1. Are you able to sort of comment anything around your plans or thoughts and what is going on in Saxo Bank and Enento?

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

We have nothing new to comment, really. As we have stated before, we are managing those assets for value and those assets are not strategic for us. So once the valuation and the time is right, we will do our decision. So short answer, no any new to add to what we have previously said.

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Hans, the announcement earlier today, we sent out about the financing of the deal, which has slightly changed partly due to that. It has dragged on a lot longer than previously thought. So that is maybe the news.

[Operator]

The next question comes from [ Andi Sori from OP Markets ].

[Unknown Analyst]

It's Andi here. A few questions from my side. Firstly, if you look at the fee result compared to Q4, assets under management increased by 5%, fee result, 13%. You have made a lot of investments to future growth in the past, but perhaps the cost base is becoming more and more stable. So is this kind of operative leverage that we should expect going forward?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Yes, Andi. It's Matti here. Well, first of all, I think it's important to note that you're absolutely correct that we are seeing kind of leverage on the cost base in a sense where our assets are growing and their income is growing faster than costs, but nothing special to notice on that side. I think it's proof that the leverage in the business is working.

[Unknown Analyst]

So this is perhaps a good proxy for the future?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Well, the only thing we've obviously said is that we expect that the fee result will grow and the assets under management will grow. So you need to do your own math on the situation. And as we've shown also, our margins are stable. So all in all, I think this is the kind of situation one should be looking at.

[Unknown Analyst]

That's clear. Secondly, in the statement today, you said that you acquired Saxo using bank loans instead of the loan that Sampo offered you, which seems -- which means to me that the terms must be significantly better. Could you open up the price and term of the bank loans that you are taking?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Well, we won't go into the details of the transaction as such. But remember, this deal was actually set up a long time ago, and it was a kind of backstop in terms of the financing, if needed. And of course, the other thing is that this has dragged on a lot longer than planned because of the regulatory approvals have taken so much time. So actually also, we need less financing from the holding company. And this was also very favorable terms. So I think that's what we should say about this. But the terms are favorable in our opinion.

[Operator]

Next question comes from Ulrik Zürcher from Nordea.

[Ulrik Zürcher, analyst]

Nice to see you up and running, Matti. I guess two questions, if I may. First one, I was wondering if it's anything new on or when we should expect you to start refinancing the Tier 2 bond?

And the second question, like a follow up a little bit on [indiscernible] you report cost/income ratio has moving average for 12 months, looks like 65%, very stable. But I think you report 58% in this quarter, but it's a 12-month moving average because [indiscernible] really look at for?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Ulrik, firstly, on the Tier 2, you're absolutely correct. We have a EUR 250 million Tier 2 bond coming up for refi, for call in October. And typically, most companies do refinance this. And we're probably going to do the same thing, but we haven't made any decisions on the topic yet. We still have time on that, but that's actually the norm, as you say it.

And then you're absolutely correct. We've kind of changed the cost/income ratio to 12-month rolling average. We believe it gives you a better picture altogether on the situation, but it is true that the leverage has improved. Of course, one of the big driver here is that if you look at the AUM growth, it was 16% year-on-year, but 5% quarter-on-quarter, which is higher annualized 20%, as you know. So that, of course, is helping there a bit. But we have a strong focus on costs internally and also strong focus on disciplined pricing.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Jaakko Tyrvainen from SEB.

[Jaakko Tyrväinen, analyst]

It's Jaakko from SEB. I would like to repeat on the equity gains you made in the with-profit portfolio. Could you remind us how the equity portfolio there between -- split between the geographies? Have you opened up that?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Jaakko, it's Matti here. You're absolutely correct. If you look at our portfolio, first of all, this is a run-off legacy portfolio, as you know. It's part of the with-profit book. We've decreased, we've continued to decrease the equity weight. Historically, it was very high, and now we have kind of decreased it to a level of 7% altogether from around 9% in the beginning of the year. So there's a kind of derisking process still ongoing here.

Then, of course, the other factor which is important note, which is in the net finance result not part of the with-profit portfolio is Enento stake, which was EUR 4 million negative in the quarter, EUR 6 million positive in Q4. And you can say actually that this is not an index portfolio, you should kind of track international indices with altogether. We have no U.S. equities, it's a very Finnish-focused portfolio altogether. But I think I'll leave it there for the details. But I think the main point that we want to make is that you should not look at S&P 500 as a proxy for our equity returns here.

[Jaakko Tyrväinen, analyst]

Okay. But if I look at the Finnish equity indexes performance during the first quarter, you clearly beat those indexes. So you have some international equity there as well.

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Yes, we do. There are some European equities there. But I think the main point we're trying to make here is that this is a run-off portfolio in a sense and a derisking mode is still continuing. So that is the issue I'm trying to make.

[Jaakko Tyrväinen, analyst]

I understand. Then on the net flows during Q1, it was a pretty nice level you showed there, but still down year-over-year so that the Q1 is seasonally the strongest quarter, at least by looking at the past few years, it has been. But perhaps a follow-up here, is it safe to expect similar but then in net flows seen last year going towards the coming quarters?

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

Yes, it was down compared to last year, Q1. But still, we are happy with the level of our sales and outflow as well. Our business and especially our customer segments are so that it varies quite a lot between the months and also a little bit with the quarters. So there are seasonality in our business because summer is coming and what we have -- what we have seen in the past and the months are not the same. But our aim is to grow net positive every month and every quarter. But the seasonality, what we have seen in the past is, I guess, it's quite obvious. It will be still there.

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Maybe also worth noting is that Q1 last year was by far the highest ever. So the comparisons are a bit, I would say, maybe unfair in that respect.

[Jaakko Tyrväinen, analyst]

Okay. Good, good. Then looking at the international assets under management. It increased nice during the quarter. Could you talk a bit on the recent progress and plans going forward in terms of the international business?

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

Yes. As you mentioned, we are quite happy with the process, what we saw during the Q1 in Sweden and Denmark, positive net flow and also the higher asset under management. We are putting, of course, a lot of efforts on thinking how we can speed up the growth in those areas, but nothing special to mention at this point. So we continue with the plan we have at this point and at the existing structure, what we have.

[Jaakko Tyrväinen, analyst]

Okay. Then finally, a bit technical question on solvency. How big was this similar adjustment impact on the SCR during the quarter?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Did you mean in percentage points or euros?

[Jaakko Tyrväinen, analyst]

In euros, please?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

It was EUR 40 million roughly.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Michele Ballatore from KBW.

[Michele Ballatore, analyst]

Yes. So two questions. So the first question is about capital management. I mean, obviously, I mean your solvency is above the target, your target. And when should we expect some updates in terms of if you want to do share buybacks or special dividend or whatever in terms of if there is a timing, where we can expect some decisions in that regard?

And the second question is about, if you can remind us in terms of M&A what kind of approach you will take? What kind of target you have in mind when it comes to M&A?

And then sorry, there is a third question on the leverage. I mean, the [indiscernible] leverage does not include the loan that you're taking now to finance the acquisition of Saxo, if I'm correct. So can you give us an update there?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

I start with the last question, Michele. You're absolutely correct. It does not include it. So the leverage is not an issue in our case, basically, and also there's no restricting factor in that respect from a leverage ratio point of view. We're at 15% on a leverage ratio, which is a very low figure.

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

Yes. And Petri Niemisvirta here, also answering the first two questions, starting with the first one, is solvency ratio and possible dividends and higher dividends. As we have stated before, we are cautious and conservative when we are looking at our balance sheet and our solvency ratio. Still of course, in the long run, this is not explanation anymore. But still, we are quite new listed entity, not part of the Sampo anymore.

So we have decided to be very conservative with our balance sheet in the beginning. And of course, our solvency situation is also quite much related to our Saxo ownings and Enento ownings. So of course, if those assets, as we have said, we manage those for value, move way, so then the situation will be different at that point.

And the next question about M&A, as well, we have said that we are very conservative on that side, too. So we only look at very carefully those assets that we can clearly see that they added shareholder value and must be something, which will speed up our growth and creates more scalability or gives us more distribution. If we can find of those kind of issues and clearly see that they at a shareholder value, then we are ready to think about those. Of course, we are examining and looking at all the options around our business areas and the geographical areas we are doing our business.

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Maybe one I could add here as well. The fact that, as you saw from the regulatory approval from the -- for us buying Saxo took quite a long time. So these things take fairly, typically, quite a long time to be closed and finalized. And it's not -- it's only next week when we have our AGM, and we are paying out EUR 166 million in dividends. So that is also happening as we speak altogether.

[Michele Ballatore, analyst]

Okay. So just two follow-ups. So can we exclude completely any additional capital return before the noncore assets are in some [indiscernible], let's say?

[Petri Niemisvirta, executive]

Yes. It's -- let's say, never say never. Our capital structure is, of course, a key driver how we look at our balance sheet. But it is, of course, we have to remember that Saxo and other noncore assets are a big part of our equity risk part. And so we are very conservative with that. And so but we tied with our plan that we will distribute this EUR 500 million in 3 years and the 1/3 of that, we'll finalize in a week now.

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

And a major factor, of course, in place that we need also the liquidity from -- to pay out any extras, whenever that time may be.

[Lotta Borgström, executive]

Yes. Then we have a couple of questions coming from Kasper Mellas at Inderes.

First question, what lies behind the other investment return for the group, that was minus EUR 0.9 million in the quarter?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

I guess you're referring to the segmental information altogether. So the main reason behind that was the Enento, Enento mark-to-market change in the quarter. We had some positive investment returns, otherwise there as well, but that was the main driver behind it.

[Lotta Borgström, executive]

And then over to next question. Is EUR 5 million a fair assumption for normalized rate for group costs? And did you have any cost related one-offs during the quarter?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

I assume that this is also related to the segmental information. I think, first of all, a word of kind of caution here when looking at these figures, as we've changed some of the kind of customer allocations compared to last year. And so the figures are not entirely comparable altogether as that, and the EUR 5 million also includes the interest cost on the Tier 2. So -- but overall, there is nothing special behind it. But I would actually rather look at the kind of condensed P&L rather than the segmental one when doing the estimates altogether.

[Lotta Borgström, executive]

And then the last question from Kasper Mellas. Did you have any one-offs in the fee result? And what did the fee result for retail clients -- sorry, why did the fee result for retail clients increased so much from the comparison period? And I think he's referring to the other results from investments and asset management services.

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Yes. Again, I think this is based on the segmental information. So as I said, don't look at the comparison to last year. We've done some allocation changes between these, and so the figures are not entirely comparable to last year. This is the first Q1 we report as a listed company. So bear with us here. No kind of extraordinary performance fees on the fee line.

[Lotta Borgström, executive]

Mellas also asks, if EUR 8 billion is a sustainable run rate for the group, but I think the same explanation goes for that?

[Matti Ahokas, executive]

Yes. And if this is referring to the investment fee result, obviously, what we've said is that we expect that our assets under management in the capital-light business should grow. So if that happens, then also this item should grow.

[Lotta Borgström, executive]

Okay. That was all for today. Thank you for joining us, and have a good rest of the week. Goodbye.