XPO Logistics Inc
NYSE:XPO
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one XPO stock under the Base Case scenario is 117.63 USD. Compared to the current market price of 148.97 USD, XPO Logistics Inc is Overvalued by 21%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
XPO Logistics Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
XPO Logistics Inc
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XPO Logistics Inc. has emerged as a crucial player in the global logistics landscape, providing innovative supply chain solutions designed to meet the ever-evolving demands of modern commerce. Founded in 1989, the company has rapidly expanded its reach and capabilities through strategic acquisitions and organic growth. With a robust portfolio that includes transportation, last-mile delivery, and contract logistics, XPO is well-positioned to serve diverse industries ranging from e-commerce and automotive to healthcare and food services. By leveraging advanced technologies, such as machine learning and automated systems, the company enhances operational efficiency and offers its clients compet...
XPO Logistics Inc. has emerged as a crucial player in the global logistics landscape, providing innovative supply chain solutions designed to meet the ever-evolving demands of modern commerce. Founded in 1989, the company has rapidly expanded its reach and capabilities through strategic acquisitions and organic growth. With a robust portfolio that includes transportation, last-mile delivery, and contract logistics, XPO is well-positioned to serve diverse industries ranging from e-commerce and automotive to healthcare and food services. By leveraging advanced technologies, such as machine learning and automated systems, the company enhances operational efficiency and offers its clients competitive advantages in a fast-paced market.
For investors, XPO Logistics represents a unique opportunity, combining strong financial fundamentals with a commitment to growth and sustainability. The company has consistently delivered solid revenue growth, driven by the increasing demand for logistics solutions in an interconnected global economy. Additionally, XPO's focus on innovation not only improves service quality but also positions it to capture market share in sectors that are becoming increasingly reliant on sophisticated supply chain strategies. As companies prioritize efficiency and adaptability, XPO’s ability to offer tailored logistics solutions will be vital, promising a potentially lucrative investment for those looking to tap into the future of transportation and logistics.
XPO Logistics Inc. operates in several core business segments, each contributing to its overall logistics and transportation services. The primary segments are:
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Transportation: This segment includes a wide range of freight transportation services, covering:
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Truckload and Less-than-Truckload (LTL): XPO provides both full truckload and less-than-truckload services, facilitating the movement of goods across long distances. Their LTL service is notable for its network efficiencies and advanced technology for tracking shipments.
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Last Mile: This service caters to residential delivery of goods, particularly heavy goods that require special handling and setup, often involving a two-person delivery team.
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Brokerage: XPO operates a freight brokerage platform that connects shippers with carriers, leveraging technology to optimize load capacity and costs.
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Logistics: This segment focuses on supply chain management and includes services such as:
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Contract Logistics: Managing entire logistics operations for customers, including warehousing, distribution, and inventory management.
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Warehouse Management: Offering storage solutions with a focus on optimizing inventory flow and reducing supply chain costs through advanced automation and technology.
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Global Forwarding: This segment encompasses the international movement of goods and includes:
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Air Freight: Providing time-sensitive transportation of goods via air, often catering to industries requiring expedited deliveries.
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Ocean Freight: Facilitating the shipment of goods via shipping vessels, navigating complex international regulations and routes.
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Technology and Innovation: While not a separate business segment per se, XPO emphasizes the integration of technology across its operations. This includes advanced analytics, artificial intelligence, and proprietary software solutions that enhance supply chain efficiency, visibility, and decision-making.
XPO Logistics aims to leverage its comprehensive service offerings, technology-driven solutions, and global reach to provide value to its customers in various industries.
XPO Logistics Inc boasts several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from rivals in the logistics and transportation sector:
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Diversified Service Offerings: XPO Logistics provides a wide range of services, including freight brokerage, last-mile delivery, contract logistics, and supply chain optimization. This diversification allows the company to cater to various industry needs and reduces reliance on any single revenue stream.
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Technology-Driven Solutions: The company has invested heavily in technology, utilizing advanced analytics and proprietary software solutions to optimize logistics and supply chain operations. Its XPO Smart suite helps track shipments, streamline processes, and enhance overall efficiency, giving it a competitive edge in operational excellence.
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Global Network and Scale: XPO operates a large and integrated network of transportation and logistics facilities across multiple countries. This extensive footprint enables better service coverage, more efficient routing, and the ability to handle large volumes, which can be a significant barrier to entry for new competitors.
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Strong Customer Relationships: The company has built long-term partnerships with a diverse customer base, including major retailers and manufacturers. These relationships are often supported by customized solutions, fostering loyalty and encouraging repeat business.
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Focus on Sustainability: XPO Logistics has made strides in enhancing its environmental sustainability practices, which can be a differentiating factor as consumers and businesses increasingly prioritize eco-friendly operations. Their initiatives in reducing carbon footprint can attract environmentally conscious clients.
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Skilled Workforce and Expertise: With a deep pool of logistics and supply chain professionals, XPO benefits from a knowledgeable workforce. This expertise is vital in implementing complex logistics solutions and improving service delivery.
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Acquisition Strategy: XPO has a history of strategic acquisitions that enhance its capabilities and market position. These acquisitions often come with established customer bases and operational synergies, enabling rapid growth and improved service offerings.
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Innovation Culture: The company's commitment to innovation is evident in its continuous upgrades to technology and processes. Innovation programs, combined with employee training and development, keep the workforce adaptable and ahead of industry changes.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, XPO Logistics Inc positions itself to outperform rivals and maintain a strong standing in the increasingly competitive logistics industry.
XPO Logistics Inc. faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which can be categorized into various areas:
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Economic and Market Risks:
- Recession Risks: A potential economic downturn can reduce demand for logistics services as businesses may cut back on inventory and transportation needs.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing supply chain issues, exacerbated by global events such as pandemics or geopolitical tensions, can impact service delivery and costs.
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Regulatory Risks:
- Labor Regulations: Changes in labor laws or regulations related to workforce management, minimum wage increases, and unionization efforts could affect operational costs and productivity.
- Environmental Regulations: Increasingly stringent environmental regulations could impose additional costs or necessitate changes in operations to reduce carbon footprints.
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Competitive Pressures:
- Market Competition: The logistics sector is highly competitive, with numerous players. Competition from other logistics providers or alternative transportation methods could pressure pricing and margins.
- Technological Advancements: Competitors utilizing advanced technologies (like AI, automation, and robotics) may offer superior efficiency and service levels, posing a risk to XPO’s market position.
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Technological Risks:
- Cybersecurity Threats: As logistics companies increasingly rely on technology, they become more vulnerable to cyberattacks, which can disrupt operations and compromise sensitive data.
- Adaptation to New Technologies: The need to continuously invest in and adapt to new technology to remain competitive presents a constant challenge.
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Operational Challenges:
- Labor Shortages: The logistics industry often faces labor shortages, particularly for drivers and warehouse workers, impacting service levels and operational efficiency.
- Fleet Management: Managing and maintaining a fleet of vehicles, amidst rising transportation costs and regulatory requirements, presents ongoing operational challenges.
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Geopolitical Risks:
- Trade Policies: Changes in trade policies, tariffs, and international relations can significantly impact logistics operations and costs, particularly for a company with global reach like XPO.
- Political Instability: Operations in regions with political instability can create risks related to supply chain disruptions and increased costs.
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Financial Risks:
- Cost Inflation: Rising costs for fuel, labor, and materials can squeeze margins and impact profitability if those costs cannot be passed on to customers.
- Debt Levels: High levels of debt can limit financial flexibility and pose risks in a tightening credit environment.
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Customer Diversification:
- Reliance on Key Customers: A heavy reliance on a limited number of key customers can pose risks if those customers reduce their logistics spending or seek competitors.
Addressing these risks and challenges effectively requires strategic planning, resource allocation, and a proactive approach to both operational efficiencies and technology adoption.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
XPO Logistics Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
XPO Logistics Inc
Current Assets | 1.7B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 378m |
Receivables | 1.1B |
Other Current Assets | 212m |
Non-Current Assets | 6.3B |
PP&E | 4.1B |
Intangibles | 1.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 265m |
Current Liabilities | 1.6B |
Accounts Payable | 445m |
Accrued Liabilities | 939m |
Other Current Liabilities | 179m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 4.7B |
Long-Term Debt | 3.3B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.4B |
Earnings Waterfall
XPO Logistics Inc
Revenue
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8.1B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-3.3B
USD
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Gross Profit
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4.8B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-4B
USD
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Operating Income
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708m
USD
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Other Expenses
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-338m
USD
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Net Income
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370m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
XPO Logistics Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In the third quarter, the company reported a 4% increase in revenue to $2.1 billion, aided by a 20% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $333 million. Key drivers included a 6.7% increase in yield and a 200 basis point improvement in operating ratio, reaching 84.2%. Costs were significantly controlled, notably achieving a 40% reduction in outsourced transportation expenses. Cash flow from operations totaled $264 million, with a robust liquidity position of $934 million. For 2024, the company aims for a 150 to 250 basis point improvement in operating ratio, expecting favorable pricing trends in a recovering market.
What is Earnings Call?
XPO Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
XPO Logistics Inc's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
XPO Logistics Inc's profitability score is 58/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
XPO Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
XPO Logistics Inc's solvency score is 44/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
XPO Logistics Inc's solvency score is 44/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
XPO Price Targets Summary
XPO Logistics Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for XPO is 150.51 USD with a low forecast of 85.85 USD and a high forecast of 187.95 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for XPO is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
XPO Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
XPO Logistics, Inc. engages in the provision of freight transportation services. The company is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut and currently employs 42,000 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2004-05-12. The firm uses its technology, including the XPO Connect automated freight marketplace, to move goods through its customers’ supply chains, primarily by providing less-than-truckload (LTL) and truck brokerage services. The firm has two reportable segments: North American LTL, and Brokerage and Other Services. The North American LTL segment provides its customers with geographic density and day-definite regional, inter-regional and transcontinental LTL freight services. Its services include cross-border United States service to and from Mexico and Canada, as well as intra-Canada service. The Brokerage and Other Services segment includes last mile logistics for heavy goods sold through e-commerce, omnichannel retail and direct-to-consumer channels. The company also includes non-core brokered freight transportation modes, as well as its European transportation offerings.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one XPO stock under the Base Case scenario is 117.63 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 148.97 USD, XPO Logistics Inc is Overvalued by 21%.