Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc

NYSE:XHR

Earnings Call Analysis

Positive Group Business Outlook Amid Renovation Impacts

This quarter, the company's performance met expectations, with a net loss of $8.5 million, adjusted EBITDA of $46.3 million and adjusted FFO per share at $0.26. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) saw a marginal increase, rising by 0.4% to $158.48, alongside occupancy improvement. However, daily rates slightly decreased by 0.6%. Significant renovations at three key properties, including the completion of the Kimpton Hotel Monaco Salt Lake City and the ongoing transformation of Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, had a notable impact on results; excluding Scottsdale, RevPAR increased 4%. The bright spot, group room revenue, is ahead by 16% for the full year 2023 and EBITDA declined by 7.9%. The company maintains a strong leverage position of 4.7x net debt to EBITDA, with fixed interest rates and an undrawn line of credit.

Stable Performance Aligned with Expectations Emphasizes Recovery and Renovation Impact

The company entered the third quarter with results meeting their forecasts, as demand gradually returns to pre-pandemic patterns, highlighted by the recovery of business transient and group segments. Renovation projects at three key properties impacted the financials but are wrapping up, with two completed and the Hyatt Regency Scottsdale's transformation ongoing. RevPAR slightly increased by 0.4%, with a notable 70 basis point rise in occupancy and a marginal 0.6% drop in average daily rates (ADRs). Excluding the under-renovation Scottsdale property, the revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose by 4%, indicating the significant influence this renovation has on current and near-term performance.

Renovation Disruption Counterbalanced by Positive Trends in Key Markets

Significant renovations in Salt Lake City and Orlando, alongside Scottsdale, have challenged the quarter's revenue potential. However, markets with strong RevPAR growth, including Houston, Dallas, Portland, and Nashville, experienced double-digit increases, signaling robust business and group demand in these areas. Notably, group room revenue grew over 3%, driven by rising business at group-centric hotels. The business transient sector showed improvement as well, despite a slight decline in weekend occupancy.

Competitive Edge Maintained with Strong Position in Texas Market and Substantial Investment in Houston Properties

The market showcases favorable supply and demand dynamics, particularly in Texas, deemed a high-growth state with consistent business developments at all locations. Minimal expected supply growth through 2025 bolsters this advantage. The company has notably invested approximately $50 million into renovations and upgrades at their Houston hotels, with an average investment basis reflecting attractive valuations fostered by their strategic locations.

Scottsdale Renovation in Line with Projections but Impacts Short-Term Results

The Scottsdale renovation continues as planned, both in terms of schedule and cost, but has notably influenced the company's results. Yet, this impacts align with initial expectations and is forecasted to significantly contribute to portfolio earnings growth in the long term.

Revenue and Earnings Guidance Adjusted for 2023 With Group Room Revenue and FFO Taking the Spotlight

For the rest of 2023, the company anticipates a 4.5% RevPAR growth midpoint, a 50 basis point decrease informed by subdued leisure demand on weekends and slower, albeit progressing, improvement in business transient demand. Specifically, excluding Scottsdale, group room revenue for 2023 is already about 16% ahead compared to last year, showing promise for future quarters. Moreover, funds from operations (FFO) per share is expected around $1.51 at the midpoint, slightly elevated due to recent stock buybacks. Looking forward, the firm refrains from providing concrete 2024 guidance until the fourth quarter, yet offers a glimpse of optimistic group and corporate rate trends for the forthcoming year.

Predicted EBITDA Influenced by Scottsdale Project and Anticipated Margins

The ongoing Scottsdale project prompts an anticipated $12 million EBITDA impact spread across the upcoming year, with the heaviest burden in the second quarter. Assumingly, less disruption will occur next year compared to 2023, but the Scottsdale property is expected to generate less EBITDA than in its exceptionally strong early 2023 performance due to high leisure and group demand, including benefits from the Super Bowl. EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter are foreseen to dip by approximately 200 basis points compared to last year; however, excluding Scottsdale, margins should remain relatively stable or show mild improvement.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Charlie and I'll be coordinating the call today. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand over to our host, Amanda Bryant, Vice President of Finance, to begin. Amanda, please go ahead.

[Amanda Bryant, executive]

Thank you, Charlie, and welcome to Xenia Hotels & Resorts Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. I'm here with Marcel Verbaas, our Chair and Chief Executive Officer; Barry Bloom, our President and Chief Operating Officer; and Atish Shah, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Marcel will begin with a discussion on our performance. Barry will follow with more details on operating trends and capital expenditure projects. And Atish will conclude today's remarks on our balance sheet and outlook. We will then open the call for Q&A.

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that certain statements made on this call are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as described in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings, and could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by our comments.

Forward-looking statements in the earnings release that we issued yesterday, along with the comments on this call, are made only as of today, November 1, 2023, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update any of these forward-looking statements as actual events unfold. You can find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to net loss and definitions of certain items referred to in our remarks in the earnings release, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

The third quarter 2023 property level information we will be speaking about today is on a same-property basis for all 32 hotels unless specified otherwise. An archive of this call will be available on our website for 90 days. I will now turn it over to Marcel to get started.

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

Thanks, Amanda, and good morning, everyone. Overall results in the third quarter were in line with our expectations. Our demand segmentation mix continues to revert towards pre-pandemic levels as business transient and group demand continues to recover. A couple of important renovation projects have essentially wrapped up, and the transformation of Hyatt Regency Scottsdale Resort & Spa at Gainey Ranch is well underway. And our recently acquired hotels, W Nashville and Hyatt Regency Portland at the Oregon Convention Center, reported a solid quarter of earnings contribution as they were among our top-performing assets during the third quarter.

For the quarter, we reported a net loss of $8.5 million. Adjusted EBITDAre was $46.3 million and adjusted FFO per share was $0.26. Same-property RevPAR in the quarter was $158.48, a 0.4% increase as compared to the third quarter of 2022. Occupancy increased 70 basis points, while average daily rates decreased 0.6%.

Our results were meaningfully impacted by 3 of our properties undergoing significant renovations in the quarter. This included the comprehensive renovation at the Kimpton Hotel Monaco Salt Lake City, the guestrooms renovation at Grand Bohemian Hotel Orlando and the transformative renovation at Hyatt Regency Scottsdale. As Barry will discuss in more detail in his remarks, the Salt Lake City renovation has now been completed. The Orlando project will be completed in the next several days, and the Scottsdale project is progressing as planned.

Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, RevPAR increased 4% as compared to the third quarter of 2022. Highlighting the impact this project had on our results in the third quarter and will continue to have in the near term. As compared to the third quarter of 2019, for the 29 hotels we currently own that were open at that time, excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, RevPAR was down 1.1% in the third quarter. For these 29 hotels, occupancy was roughly 11 points below 2019, while ADR was up 14.3%. While expense growth continues to put pressure on bottom line results in the lodging industry, margin contraction for our portfolio moderated at the third quarter, as hotel EBITDA margin on a same-property basis declined by 169 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022, which was in line with our expectations.

Excluding Scottsdale, margins contracted just 60 basis points, which is a significant improvement compared to the second quarter margin decline. Recall that property level expenses in the third quarter of last year started normalizing as many of our properties filled open positions and resumed services as the year progresses.

Turning to our individual markets. In the third quarter, the strongest RevPAR growth occurred in several markets that are more dependent on business transient and group demand. Houston, Dallas, Portland and Nashville, reported double-digit RevPAR growth while Pittsburgh and San Francisco experienced high single-digit RevPAR growth.

Due to renovation disruption, Phoenix and Salt Lake City were our 2 weakest RevPAR markets in the quarter. While several leisure-oriented markets, including Napa and Savannah experienced mid-teen percentage RevPAR declines. We are clearly seeing signs of leisure demand normalizing from its historically high post dynamic levels, both within our portfolio and in overall industry data. However, our portfolio has always benefited from a balanced mix of group business transient and leisure demand. And we are continuing to see the gradual shift back to our pre-pandemic segmentation mix.

Group business remains a bright spot. Group room revenue in the third quarter was up a little over 3% over the third quarter of 2022. And excluding Scottsdale in both periods, our group room revenue was up about 9%. We continue to see meaningful improvements in group business at our important group-oriented hotels in Orlando, Portland, Atlanta and Dallas. By way of reminder, we estimate that group has historically been about 1/3 of our overall business mix.

Group revenue pace for full year 2023 is up about 13% versus last year for our same-property portfolio and up about 16%, if we exclude Scottsdale where the meeting space is now mostly unavailable. Group ADR for full year 2023 is up about 4%, again, excluding Scottsdale. Atish will provide an early look into our 2024 group base during his remarks. Business transient demand continued to improve during the third quarter. Overall, occupancy improved on Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays as compared to the third quarter of 2022, while weekend occupancy was down slightly as compared to the same quarter last year.

2 of our 4 strongest RevPAR growth markets reflected results from our most recent acquisitions, Hyatt Regency Portland at the Oregon Convention Center and W Nashville. With RevPAR increasing by 26.8% and 17.3%, respectively, at these hotels for the quarter. Both properties are benefiting from significant growth in group business as they continue on their path towards stabilization.

For 2023, group room revenue on the books at both properties has increased more than 40% over 2022 levels, driven by solid increases in room nights. Business transient production is also driving growth as both properties increased volumes with important corporate accounts in recent months. Our other top-performing markets for the quarter were both located in Texas, where the Houston and Dallas markets reported third quarter RevPAR growth of 25.2% and 14.2%, respectively. Our hotels in these markets not only drove outstanding third quarter results, but they are also well positioned to capture additional growth in the coming years because of favorable market dynamics and important capital investments made in recent years.

Overall market fundamentals reflect a favorable supply and demand backdrop. Texas continues to be a high-growth state, both in terms of population growth and business incubations at every locations. Supply growth through 2025 in our specific submarkets is also benign. The Dallas CBD submarket is expected to peak at 2.3%, the Houston North Woodlands submarket at 2.7% and the Houston Galleria submarket is expected to see no new supply over the next 2 years.

In terms of earnings contribution, our Houston properties peaked in 2015 and since that time, have successfully broadened their base of business and reduced reliance on city-wide conventions. We also invested a significant amount of capital into our 3 Houston hotels, leading up to and through the pandemic. The 2 [indiscernible] received about $50 million in capital, mostly by renovating and upgrading [indiscernible] areas.

And in 2020 and 2022, we invested approximately $12 million in additional capital expenditures at Marriott Woodlands, primarily on significant improvements to guest rooms and guest bathrooms. We are pleased to see the benefits of these investments as the market continues its recovery from the pandemic and as economic activity in the region continues to improve. And despite the significant capital expenditures we have made into these hotels during our ownership period, our overall investment basis of approximately $360,000 per key on average for the 3 hotels remains attractive, especially given their excellent locations, high-quality and extensive meeting facilities and supporting amenities,

I would now like to turn to our Scottsdale project. As I mentioned earlier, this transformational renovation is progressing as planned from a schedule and cost perspective. While the disruption to our short-term results are significant, this disruption also continues to be in line with our expectations. As we anticipated, demand in the Phoenix Scottsdale market has softened a bit this year, particularly after a very strong first quarter that was aided by the Super Bowl in early February. The market is experiencing similar signs of moderating leisure demand that we are witnessing in other markets.

As we indicated when we initially announced this transformational renovation, our strategy revolves around further optimizing the demand segmentation mix at the resort and being able to drive greater and higher rate of group business. We also are aiming to create an upgraded experience that will allow the resort to compete more effectively within its luxury competitive set for a higher rate of corporate transient and leisure demand.

This competitive set includes a number of resorts that have also received significant capital investments in recent years. The expansion of our meeting space, the significant upgrades through our pool complex, the relaunching and revitalization of our food and beverage amenities, the substantial investment in our upgraded rooms products and the ultimate up branding into a Grand Hyatt Resort are all important components of this transformation.

When we initially discussed this project, we indicated that we believe that the record 2022 results at the resorts were driven by an unusually high level of post-pandemic domestic leisure demand as well as expenses that were well below normalized levels. We also spoke about viewing 2019 as a more normalized year, both from a demand segmentation perspective and earnings base for the property. Given the resort's aging facilities and an expected normalization of leisure demand in the U.S. overall and the Phoenix-Scottsdale market in particular, we completed an extensive analysis of long-term supply and demand trends, the competitive landscape and the challenges and opportunities that the resort presented.

Everything we are seeing in the market this year has further increased our confidence in the decision we made to commence this transformational renovation and up-branding to a Grand Hyatt from both a scope and a timing perspective. The Phoenix-Scottsdale market continues to be very attractive for all segments of hotel demand, which will be bolstered by the expected economic and population growth in the markets in the years and decades ahead. With the well located and upgraded and expanded Grand Hyatt Resort, we believe we will be able to compete very effectively in the Scottsdale luxury resort market. And as a result, we expect the resort to grow earnings significantly over both the 2019 pre-pandemic peak year and the outsized leisure-driven results we achieved in 2022.

As a reminder, we have a relatively low investment basis in the resort, and we will continue to do so after making this approximately $110 million additional investment. Our anticipated gross investment basis of less than $700,000 per key upon completion of the project is especially attractive when compared to recent sales of comparable resorts. We remain extremely excited about the resort's future and continue to believe strongly that this project will be a meaningful driver for portfolio earnings growth in the years ahead.

Despite a lot of economic and geopolitical uncertainty right now, the year has unfolded largely as expected as it relates to our portfolio performance. While we have been impacted by substantial renovation disruption as anticipated, we are optimistic that our continued investments in the portfolio will drive attractive returns.

Atish will provide additional details regarding our revised full year 2023 outlook. We have slightly lowered the midpoint of our projected adjusted EBITDAre range to reflect the recent demand trends. However, we continue to believe that our portfolio is well positioned to outperform in the years ahead given its high quality, excellent locations, diversity of demand mix and recent and ongoing capital investments.

I will now turn the call over to Barry as he will provide more detail on our portfolio's performance and an update on our capital expenditure projects.

[Barry Bloom, executive]

Thank you, Marcel, and good morning, everyone. As Marcel indicated in his remarks, the leading market in terms of RevPAR growth in the quarter include many of our hotels that cater to group and business transient customers, supporting our view that the recovery has extended beyond these [indiscernible] properties. As expected, results in the third quarter reflected renovation impact along with challenging year-ago growth comparisons.

The quarter began with occupancy of 63.7% in July with an ADR of $245.01, resulting in RevPAR of $156.12, a 1.2% increase compared to July 2022. August occupancy was $62.6, with an ADR of $237.23, results in RevPAR of $148.54, a 2.1% increase compared to 2022. The strongest month of the quarter as expected, was September with occupancy of 65% and an ADR of $263.51, resulting in RevPAR of $171.18. However, this represented a 1.9% decline to September 2022. Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, same-property RevPAR increased 4% in the quarter as compared to the third quarter of 2021.

Similar to last quarter, average daily rates at our same-property portfolio moderated in the third quarter, declined 0.6% as compared to the third quarter of 2022, which have grown substantially over the third quarter of 2021. As expected, rate declines at some of our leisure-oriented hotels in the third quarter exceeded that of our same-property portfolio as compared to the third quarter of 2022. However, rates at these properties remain well above 2019 levels.

For instance, rates in Key West, Napa and Savannah were approximately 26%, 21% and 12% above third quarter 2019 levels, respectively. Same-property occupancy for the third quarter improved by 70 basis points compared to the third quarter of 2022. Most of this improvement was driven by higher mid-week occupancies as weekend occupancies declined slightly as compared to last year.

Reflecting our commentary regarding further opportunity for recovery, particularly in the corporate segment. For the 29 hotels we owned at the time and excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, Mondays through Thursdays are still down approximately 16% in occupancy from 2019 levels, while weekend occupancy was down approximately 11%. We are continuing to see rate growth due to compression, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday nights, but are seeing some softening in rates on weekends.

Business from the largest corporate accounts across our portfolio continues to improve year-to-date, but we estimate that room night demand is still down about 20% from 2019 levels. We continue to benefit from healthy group momentum with pace being driven by increases in both room nights and rate, including our 2 most recent acquisitions, Hyatt Regency Portland and W Nashville, but excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale. Group room revenue on the books for full year 2023 is currently about 16% ahead of last year and about 6% ahead of 2022 levels for the fourth quarter of 2023. We believe there is continued opportunity for further recovery and growth in group business even as we close the gap to 2019. Our current group room revenue on the books for 2023 is about 3% behind 2019 levels, excluding Scottsdale in both periods.

Now switching gears to expenses and profit. Third quarter same-property hotel EBITDA was $51.2 million, a decrease of 7.9% on a total revenue decrease of 0.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022, resulting in 169 basis points of margin erosion. Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, margin declined by just 60 basis points. This decrease in EBITDA margin in the third quarter was consistent with our expectations. The margin declines would moderate in the second half of the year as we lapped the lower staffing levels that were in place last year.

Although rooms and food and beverage department margins decreased in the quarter as compared to the third quarter of 2022, salaries and benefits stabilized and over time was significantly reduced as staffing levels normalize. A&G expenses grew a little over 1% compared to the prior year and property operations and maintenance expenses declined by approximately 1%. Utility expenses grew by approximately 6%.

Now turning to CapEx. During the third quarter, we invested $35.5 million in portfolio improvements, bringing our year-to-date total to $69.5 million. In the third quarter, we continued guestroom renovations at the Grand Bohemian Hotel Orlando, which is expected to be completed in the next few days. Earlier in the year, we completed the comprehensive renovation of all public spaces, including meeting space, lobby, restaurant, bar, Starbucks, and the creation of a rooftop bar. At the Park Hyatt Aviara Resort, we completed a significant upgrade to the resort's fitness amenities and spa, which reopened as a branded Miraval Life in Balance Spa. And finally, at Kimpton Hotel Monaco Salt Lake City, we completed the comprehensive renovation of meeting space, lobby, restaurant, bar and guest rooms in the third quarter.

The $110 million transformative renovation and up-branding of the 491-room Hyatt Regency Scottsdale is underway and proceeding as planned. Major components, including the meeting space expansion, pool complex and guestrooms have all been contracted in line with budgeted levels, and all phases remain on track to be completed by the end of 2024. Our expectation for total capital expenditures this year are now at a range of $120 million to $130 million, a reduction of $5 million at the midpoint, due to timing of deposits and cash flow. We are excited about the projects we have underway and look forward to their completion.

With that, I will turn the call over to Atish.

[Atish Shah, executive]

Thanks, Barry. I will provide an update on our balance sheet and discuss our guidance.

First on our balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter, our leverage ratio was about 4.7x net debt to EBITDA. All of our debt is at fixed rates. The quarter end interest rate was about 5.5%. And our next debt maturity is in August 2025. We continue to have a fully undrawn line of credit, that together with our unrestricted cash, reflected approximately $670 million of liquidity at quarter end.

During the quarter, we bought back just over $5 million of our senior notes in the open market at roughly 1% below par. In addition, we continue to repurchase shares. Year-to-date through today, we've repurchased 6.5% of our outstanding shares at an average price of $12.72 per share. We have approximately $73 million remaining on our Board repurchase authorization. We paid a $0.10 per share dividend in the third quarter on an annualized basis that reflects a yield of approximately 3.4% on our stock. It also reflects a payout ratio under 40% projected FAD based on the midpoint of our FFO guidance.

Second, I will turn to our full year outlook. We have lowered our expectation for RevPAR growth by 50 basis points to 4.5% at the midpoint. While third quarter results were in line with prior guidance, our revised outlook reflects tempered fourth quarter expectations. This reflects lower weekend demand than had been previously expected as leisure demand continues to normalize. And it also reflects the continued improvement in business transient demand, albeit at a slightly more gradual pace than we had previously estimated.

On a preliminary basis, we estimate October RevPAR declined 2.3% versus last year. Excluding Hyatt Regency Scottsdale, October RevPAR increased about 2.4% versus last year. The impact of the Scottsdale renovation on RevPAR was about 100 basis points higher in October than it was in the third quarter. As a reminder, October has historically been the most significant month of the quarter with nearly 50% of our fourth quarter EBITDA earned during the month. As we look ahead to November and December, our pace is significantly impacted by the Scottsdale renovation. Transient room revenue pace for the 2 months is 2% lower than last year. Excluding Scottsdale, transient pace is up 6%.

As of the end of the third quarter, group room revenue pace for November and December was down about 4% versus last year. Again, excluding Scottsdale pace for the 2 months was up 2%. As to hotel EBITDA margins, we expect them to decline approximately 200 basis points during the fourth quarter as compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Excluding Scottsdale, fourth quarter margins are expected to be flat to slightly positive.

As to adjusted EBITDAre. We have lowered the midpoint by $4 million to $250 million. Our adjusted FFO guidance of $167 million at the midpoint is $1 million lower than prior guidance. This is a result of the $4 million in lower expected adjusted EBITDAre, offset by slightly lower interest expense and slightly lower income tax expense. Our G&A expense guidance is unchanged. On a per share basis, we expect FFO of about $1.51 at the midpoint, which is $0.005 higher than prior guidance due to buybacks since we last reported.

Looking ahead to 2024. While it's still early, there are a few data points that we can offer for now. First, on our group outlook. As of the end of the third quarter, we had about 45% of our group revenues for next year already definite. That group room revenues for 2024 is pacing flat. Excluding Scottsdale, group pace is up about 10% for next year. Second, on corporate rates. We expect corporate negotiated rates for 2024 to be up in the low to mid-single-digit percentage range, that's based on preliminary feedback from our operators. And third, on new supply growth. Across our market tracks, we expect supply growth to be up just over 1% next year based on our weighted geographic room mix. This is considerably lower than annual supply growth has been over the last few years.

While we will not yet be providing 2024 guidance and we'll do so when we report the fourth quarter, we are providing an impact -- providing an estimate of the impact of disruption from our Scottsdale project. We expect the impact to EBITDA to be about $12 million over the course of next year. By quarter, our estimate is $3 million in the first quarter, $5 million in the second quarter, $3 million in the third quarter and $1 million in the fourth quarter. By way of reminder, in 2023, the EBITDA impact due to the Scottsdale renovation is expected to be about $14 million.

By quarter, that was approximately $2 million in the second quarter, $5 million in the third quarter, and we estimate it will be approximately $7 million in the fourth quarter, which we also expect to be the peak absolute level of quarterly EBITDA displacement from the renovation. So as we look at next year, we will see the largest year-over-year net renovation impact in the first half. By the time we get to the second half, we'll be lapping this year's heavy disruption.

Despite less renovation disruption next year, we expect EBITDA from Scottsdale property to be lower than in 2023. This is because leisure and group demand were particularly strong during the first 4 months of this year, and the property also benefited from the Super Bowl this year. We expect we will undertake some other capital expenditure projects next year that are likely to negatively impact EBITDA similar to what we've done in any given year. While it's a bit premature to pinpoint that impact, as we have typically done, we will do so when we next report.

I'd like to conclude by mentioning that the company continues to be well positioned with no near-term debt maturities, a high-quality portfolio and strong relationships with industry participants, including brands, managers, lenders and others. We're executing and on track on several potential high-value projects that we expect to continue to drive strong growth in the years ahead.

And with that, we'll turn the call back over to Charlie for our Q&A session.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Bryan Maher of B. Riley Securities.

[Bryan Maher, analyst]

Just one kind of area I wanted to address. And I don't think you really talked about it much in your prepared comments was you have a pretty formidable liquidity position between your cash and your availability. And we have a marketplace where hotels are starting to be handed back to lenders. I suspect we haven't seen the bottom of that, but would welcome some commentary there.

Marcel, how are you thinking about allocating your capital between future buybacks? You've been pretty aggressive this year and acquisition opportunities over the next 12 to 18 months?

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

Bryan, to your point, I think we are still in a situation where we're not quite seeing the depth of acquisition opportunities that we expect to see going forward. So particularly as we're looking at our current stock price, we think that there's a lot of value there as compared to certainly what we believe the outside value for these properties would be. So it is really a balancing act, frankly, making sure that we maintain enough liquidity to potentially look at acquisitions when there is more and more interesting opportunities out there, but we certainly see a lot of value in our stock currently.

And obviously, the third component of that is -- we do have a good number of -- well, at this point, really the bulk going into Scottsdale, but any other CapEx needs that we're going to have over the next couple of years as well, just to make sure that we maintain enough liquidity to -- for those kind of high potential projects that we're working on, in addition to the buybacks and maintaining enough dry powder for potential acquisition opportunities in the future.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Bill Crow of Raymond James.

[William Crow, analyst]

Great. Curious, if you take out Scottsdale from the equation, how much does RevPAR have to grow next year in order to have flat EBITDA?

[Atish Shah, executive]

Well, we're still in the budgeting process. But if you take Scottsdale out of the equation, I think it's probably kind of in the low to mid-single-digit range to get to flat EBITDA, just based on initial indications on expense pressures and the rest.

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

I think Barry did, obviously, get into a little bit of what we're seeing just on the overall expenses and growth in expenses. And we are certainly at a much closer level to full staffing than where we were in previous quarters. And that's why you're seeing the moderation that we saw in the third quarter, too, as compared to the margin contraction that we had in the second quarter of this year. So the fact that -- if you think about that we have 4% RevPAR growth in the third quarter of this year, excluding Scottsdale and our margins contracted by 60 basis points, I think that leads you to kind of that range that Atish is talking about.

[William Crow, analyst]

Yes. No, that's helpful. And then just a follow-up question. Wondering, it seems like middle of the year, maybe it was a little bit earlier than that, we saw this slowdown in the month or in the quarter for the quarter booking activity. It's just things seem to slow on that end. And I'm wondering what you're seeing on the booking window on those short-term bookings.

[Barry Bloom, executive]

Yes. I mean I think if you think about fourth quarter pace, short-term bookings are still very much a reality. And I think we're seeing that extend into 2024 as well where -- what Atish talked about overall pace for '24 and where we are. It's pretty heavily front loaded which we take as a good sign that business is responding quickly. And we're now starting to see properties really push to try to put more business on the books in the last half of 2024, which, quite frankly, is pretty easy because in most of our large-scale group properties, the first 2 quarters are in really good shape.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Dori Kesten of Wells Fargo.

[Dori Kesten, analyst]

With some time now under the new [ GM sell at the W Nashville, have you seen a notable shift in operations that you are looking for to put the hotel kind of back on the trajectory to stabilize yields?

[Barry Bloom, executive]

Yes. I think I would say very much so. We had a very, very good third quarter there in terms of rooms operations, both in terms of the RevPAR, the hotel drove in absolute terms as well as relative to its competitive set. A lot of that managed to flow through the operations as they've taken a new and fresh clean look at kind of how to optimize the property operationally.

And certainly with the amount of group business the hotel has done, which was a big contributor to Q3 as we had expected to be and a much larger component of the business of the hotel as we move forward, banking contribution was also good. The piece that's still a work in progress and not surprising given the amount of time it takes is really looking at the multiple food and beverage outlets in the property, and still going back and really working on kind of new marketing, and digital marketing and social media plans for each outlet to really think about how we can maximize performance.

And we're working on some things we're not really prepared to talk about yet, but then we think we'll certainly be able to get the property on a better track and certainly more help get us closer to bridge the gap that we still have on the food and beverage outlet side.

[Dori Kesten, analyst]

Okay. And I think last quarter, you said maybe the hotel is about a year behind where you thought -- or [ it might take a] year longer to stabilize. Is that still fair?

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

Yes, I think that's still fair. And I just -- I would reiterate what Barry said. We, obviously, are really kind of undertaking this path of kind of revamping some of the F&B operations here and it's still relatively early days with the new GM in place. I believe you've seen the property yourself and you know what's outstanding facilities that we have there. So we are still very confident in kind of the long-term prospects for the hotel. Clearly, it is taken a little bit longer to stabilize, but it remains a great market, a great asset, and we're still very excited about the growth prospects there.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from David Katz of Jefferies.

[David Katz, analyst]

I want to Atish, go back to some of your prepared remarks. We appreciate the detail around Scottsdale and how that rolls into 2024. I think you did suggest that there could or would be more projects in 2024. And what I'm trying to envision is whether they could have the same kind of impact of Scottsdale or we start to get into more of a cash flow pivot or harvest mode?

[Atish Shah, executive]

Yes. Thanks, David. Yes, that comment was really meant to indicate that there are, in any given year, some projects that we do. We don't expect to do anything next year of the magnitude of the project in Scottsdale. But while I was giving the displacement number for Scottsdale, I'm not really rolling up any and all displacement for next year, just given that we're still in the budgeting process and capital planning mode. So that's really what that comment was meant to indicate. Just that there are -- in any given year, we have some other smaller projects. We expect we'll have those next year as well. And we expect those, in fact, to be similar to the projects we had this year. We had a handful of other projects that we were working on. So we likely will have several other projects next year that we'll work on as well.

[David Katz, analyst]

So should I think about those magnitude-wise as something order of magnitude similar towards this year ex-Scottsdale, is that a fair way to kind of think about the...

[Atish Shah, executive]

Yes, I think more or less. I mean -- look, yes, look, we still -- we don't have a specific number for those projects and the timing will obviously vary relative to the projects we did this year namely Grand Bohemian Orlando and the project in Salt Lake. But I think it's probably a fair guess to do that.

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

It's really -- I'll just add to that, David. That it really is -- as Atish said, just kind of indicating that there may be some more disruption than essentially the $12 million that they outlined for Scottsdale. If you think about this year's disruption, we've talked about $18 million of total disruption, $14 million of which came from Scottsdale. So there was an additional roughly $4 million that came from some other projects this year. We are just not pinpointing exactly what it is for any additional projects because, frankly, we're still going through the whole process of finalizing capital budgets for next year and really looking at what we may or may not want to tackle that year. So as I'm sure you can understand, we'll get into a lot more detail on that as we do our next earnings call at the beginning of next year.

[David Katz, analyst]

Got it. If I could sneak one more quick one in, I'd appreciate it. One of the other public REITs announced a transaction recently, and I'm just wondering whether you think the capital markets landscape is better, worse or the same and whether there's a message in that or not?

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

From a capital markets perspective, maybe just -- I don't know if you want to be more specific about what you're asking about, exactly what transaction. Are you talking about company-wide transactions? Are you talking about a specific individual asset acquisition?

[David Katz, analyst]

Well, I mean, what prompted the question was the Boston asset that has sold and whether there's a message in that about receptivity or underwriting conviction and the receptivity of the capital markets. That's what I was getting at.

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

Yes. Thanks for the clarification, David. So from our perspective, I mean, there's still clearly -- there are transactions being completed, and there is interest in well-located assets and good assets that are out there. And we know of other transactions that are currently in the pipeline that will also be viewed probably pretty constructively as it relates to valuations of hotel assets. And I think -- we all know that interest rates have obviously increased very significantly. And I'm sure you've seen some recent refinancings that have been done where mortgage rates are in kind of the high 8% kind of range. But I think people are underwriting that and probably underwriting some sort of refinance down the road at hopefully, more attractive levels that gives them confidence in what their long-term returns could be.

With that being said, I think the market is still not overly deep for larger-sized asset acquisitions, and both from a number of assets that are out there and a number of transactions that are getting completed. We're still seeing some more deals done at some kind of the smaller-sized transactions than you're seeing in the larger sizes. But I do think that there's certainly interest in the lodging space. And I think part of that is also being driven by kind of looking past these next 6, 12 months and looking at what's supply -- the supply picture looks like for the space, which is obviously very appealing compared to where we've been historically. So I think that's -- there's certainly plenty of interest in the hotel space overall. And obviously, from our perspective, we see a pretty good path forward for growth in a portfolio like ours as well.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Michael Bellisario of Baird.

[Michael Bellisario, analyst]

Just a couple of quick clarifications. First on the fourth quarter outlook. It sounds like it's all on the top line coming down a little bit. Is that correct? Or are there any incremental expense headwinds that you're also baking into updated full year guidance?

[Atish Shah, executive]

No, Mike, I think you got it right. It's really RevPAR-driven. I mean if you look at everything else, how we're thinking about the renovation impact or the expense backdrop, that hasn't changed. It's really top line-driven, and primarily associated with the 2 things that I mentioned. The demand a little bit lighter on weekends and then [ BT ] ramping, ramping up slightly slower.

[Michael Bellisario, analyst]

Got it. Just wanted to clarify that. And then just on the '24 numbers for Scottsdale just to clarify there, if it's net positive, too, from renovations, but you expect the year-over-year to be down. Is that sort of at least net 3 negative sort of like-for-like. Is that all in the first quarter then? Or is that going to be spread out more between 1Q and 2Q?

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

Yes. It's mostly first quarter. That's where we saw kind of more of the strength, at least, relative to this year. There's a tad bit in the first month of the second quarter, but it's mostly first quarter.

[Michael Bellisario, analyst]

Got it. Okay. And then just last one for me, probably for Barry here. I think you mentioned meaningful improvement in group performance group trends in a few of your key markets. Any incremental color you could provide there, maybe what's driving that optimism and that upside?

[Barry Bloom, executive]

Yes. I think in part, it's a shift back to like everything else is shifting. It's a little bit of shift back to our more normal group patterns where we're seeing a much more blended mix of kind of corporate group, association group and SMERF group and where that's falling across the year, it's falling into more traditional places. So you don't have -- I mean, their kind of the big buildup of corporate demand has softened while that's incredibly lucrative business. It's the shift back to more group of the traditional types we've had, we've talked about before, right?

We had this tremendous pent-up demand from corporate and associations typically book further out. So now we're getting that association group books further out. We're getting the high-quality summer business and a lot of resorts that it is sports groups, dance groups, things like that. So it's just a more balanced group mix across the year, which is ultimately driving higher and better pace both in room nights and in rate.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Aryeh Klein of BMO Capital Markets.

[Aryeh Klein, analyst]

Maybe just on the balance sheet. With some higher near-term CapEx and EBITDA next year impacted by renovations, how high are you comfortable with leverage getting to or maybe just where do you think it will kind of peak out at?

[Atish Shah, executive]

Yes, thanks, Aryeh. Well, pre-COVID, we have been running the company from kind of in this range of low 3x to low 4x and that certainly continues to be kind of our target range and the optimal level for us given the asset profile. That said, there is a lot of recovery potential here over the next couple of years, and we pointed to some of that in prior conversations as well as the materials we posted. So we do expect there will be a natural delevering for the company as we go forward here over the next couple of years, given the EBITDA growth, particularly from some of the newer investments as well as the CapEx.

As we think about next year, I think as we talked about earlier, it is a little bit of a balance here, given the level of CapEx we have with other uses that we deem attractive, including buybacks. And I think where we are leverage-wise, roughly speaking, is about right. We're north of that low 4x higher end that I mentioned. But again, as we look further out, we think we can comfortably get back into that range. So I would say we're fine kind of in the high 4s, maybe even a little bit higher, just given the recovery potential of the business.

So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of how we're -- color into how we're thinking about, leverage in the balance sheet in light of what we've got cooking in terms of CapEx and how we're thinking about share repurchases and continuing to be active there.

[Aryeh Klein, analyst]

Appreciate that. And on the Hyatt in Scottsdale, curious about how you think about maybe starting to hold down or if you would consider that in an effort to accelerate the renovation timeline? And if not, what -- I guess, why not?

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

Yes. We obviously looked at that very extensively to see what we thought the right approach would be. And if anything, that [ says ] to do that would have been in the last -- really in the kind of the last few months as opposed to going forward. But even with that, we look at it very closely to make sure that we felt that we were not hurting ourselves financially in the short term, but also not hurting ourselves with a ramp-up, if you have to open the hotel back up. And the good thing about this hotel is that you've got some pretty distinctive areas of the hotel from a guest room perspective, where you can easily do one side of the building and have the other rooms on the other side of the building available.

And that's what we're working through right now as we're doing to guest room renovation, to make sure that we get through the first half of the building first. And then have the second half available, really when the pool complex is done at the beginning of next year. So it probably -- it might be helpful for me to expand on it a little bit because we've obviously talked about this in meetings before. But maybe not quite as granular a way as we're -- as I'd like to do now, which is we really have a strategy of making sure that we can attract leisure business primarily in the first half of next year, by having pool complex complete and by getting the guestrooms completed really here in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.

And being able to drive the leisure demand into the hotel first, while the meeting space isn't available yet with the expanded meeting space that we're doing. And then over the summer in the kind of slower periods that naturally occurs anyway, really tackling primarily the F&B operations. So we have a very well thought-out process here of how we're staging this whole renovation and trying to minimize disruption, getting the pieces going as quickly as we can. And we feel very strongly that we're not losing a lot of time, honestly, by not closing down the resort entirely. But that we're actually managing through this, the best way possible, maximizing our cash flow during this time frame, without really losing any kind of time in completing this process.

[Aryeh Klein, analyst]

And if I can just squeeze one more in. Just looking at San Jose, it's obviously a challenged market, but I'm surprised that occupancy dipped a little bit from last year with tech companies returning to office. What are you seeing in that market? And how do you think that kind of evolves into 2024?

[Atish Shah, executive]

Yes. I think one of the challenges there is that while there has been more return tech to office, there have also been significant layoffs. So that has masked a little bit of the opportunity to grow occupancy in the market. It's also true that when people were not in the office, we actually -- and it was one of our original strategies from the beginning of COVID, was to attract business from people who were visiting the office. Meaning employees who are paying their own way to come into the market to be in the office a couple of days a week. And that business has changed a lot, both as a result of tech layoffs and a result of requirements to be in the office more days, has led a lot of people to come back to be more local to the office.

We have the Q3 of this year had also never had a particularly good setup for us in that hotel on the group side as we continue to work with the adjacent convention center on driving more business into that center, but we had always known that will be soft. So those are kind of the 2 or 3 components that led to a little bit of softening there. And the flip side is we have seen rate improvement there through the period as well, in part, because we -- because -- I mean, it's not the ideal outcome, but some of that's because we didn't have some of the lower-rated group business that we'd ordinarily have. Low-rated group business we ordinarily have in that hotel during Q3.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Austin Wurschmidt of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

[Austin Wurschmidt, analyst]

I'm curious if the recent softness in leisure demand that you highlighted kind of changed your outlook for this segment at all heading into 2024. And were there any specific markets or hotels across the portfolio that you'd highlight?

[Barry Bloom, executive]

Yes. I talked a little bit in prepared remarks. I mean where we continue to see a little pullback in both occupancy and rate are really the key leisure markets we've talked about for a long time now, which are Napa, Savannah and Key West. Key West we, actually had some lap to renovation last year. So we actually showed growth in Q3 there. It was really a result of renovation lapping.

Again, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks as well, rates are incredibly strong in those markets, and we've not seen a lot of rate pressure. I think it's just simply a matter of in each of those markets, if you -- we spent 10 minutes on each of one, which we obviously don't have time for today. Each one of them has their own unique dynamic. NAPA is certainly has been impacted by the West Coast and tech slowdown and layoffs and things like that.

But we continue to be pleased with the performance in Savannah despite the year-over-year decline. Charleston has held up very well in Q3 as well. And again, Key West has always been a tremendous market for anyone that's invested there. And so we don't have a particular view in '24 that we see anything remotely close to the clients we've seen this year. And in fact, we certainly hope that the occupancy levels will stabilize back to the more normal levels, albeit at a much significantly enhanced rate over 2019.

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

The only thing I'll add to that is that from our perspective, we've been in the leisure markets for a long time. We didn't just jump into these markets in the last couple of years, right? So we're in some really long-term proven high-demand leisure markets where we feel very good about the long-term prospects and where those will kind of stabilize and normalize. And obviously, very important now at our prepared remarks, too, that we have seen very significant rate growth in those markets even still compared to '19. So it doesn't really change our outlook as it relates to those particular markets.

I think what we're seeing is really what we kind of expected, which is a softening of kind of the overall domestic leisure trends. And as Atish pointed out, that is a little bit more significant in the fourth quarter than we initially anticipated, but it's also not quite being made up by business trends in accelerating as much as we we're projecting a quarter ago. So it's really kind of the balance of those two things. But we feel good about where we are in those leisure markets. We feel good about the hotels that we have in those markets.

And as you know, and as I've pointed out a number of times, this kind of gradual shift back is not a bad thing for our portfolio because we do have a very good balance between corporate transient group and leisure demand. And particularly the strength that we're continuing to see in group is very consistent with what our expectations are, and really plays into where we think we're going to benefit over the next couple of years, which is -- we have assets that are more heavily dependent on that type of business.

We obviously did the additional Ballroom at Grand Cypress, where we're expecting good growth over what we saw in '17, '18, '19. Certainly, what we're doing in Scottsdale plays into that, where we want to make sure that it's extremely attractive for all 3 demand segments and where that increased group business that we're going after there is going to be very important for the long-term success of the property. So in overall trends in these demand segments, we're not surprised by what we're seeing there.

[Austin Wurschmidt, analyst]

Yes. That's a good segue into my next question. I guess with respect to the corporate segment, you referenced the 16% delta in occupancy versus '19 levels. I guess how does that compare to the beginning of this year? And any specific markets where that corporate demand that is underperformed, you referenced into the fourth quarter versus initial expectations or budgets. Like is it any specific hotels or markets or just broad-based?

[Atish Shah, executive]

Well, I think part of it is it's twofold from my perspective and Barry can jump in as well. But we -- Orlando, for example, is a component of that. And Orlando was a Grand Bohemian Orlando, which is really a business transient hotel for the most part and some group element to it, not really very significantly driven by leisure. And that renovation being extended out a little bit, certainly had a bit of an impact in the beginning of the fourth quarter as well.

So some of our more business-oriented hotels are some of the ones that have undergone some of the renovations this year, too. We have seen an improvement in corporate transient as the year has progressed, where you're still seeing where you need to see additional growth is really on the Monday nights and Thursday nights. Tuesday and Wednesday nights are performing very well. Where you're really seeing that delta in the occupancies. It's very much driven by what you're seeing on Monday and Thursday nights. And that is still driven by return to office, more travel by -- especially the larger corporate accounts that needs to occur on those nights of the week that we haven't quite seen yet.

[Operator]

Our final question today comes from Luis Ricardo Chinchilla of Deutsche Bank.

[Luis Ricardo Chinchilla, analyst]

I was wondering if you could comment on your refinancing strategy. Acknowledging that you guys have a pretty good rate, it's fixed and effectively, you have plenty of liquidity. So any insight on what you're thinking and perhaps if you would be more inclined to be more conservative in leverage? Although I know this was already asked, but if you could provide like a range in would you feel comfortable in deteriorating fundamental environment.

[Atish Shah, executive]

Well, thanks for the question. So on the first part of the question with regard to refinancings or financings, our next maturity is in August to '25. So it's quite some time away. I think there are obviously potentially many avenues we could explore for that debt maturity. And a lot is going to depend on sort of pricing, what's available and attractive.

Certainly, the high-yield market is one that we could continue to access, and we've got a good track record in that space. But there are other financing tools we could utilize as well. So just a little bit too early to really have a specific strategy laid out, but we do feel particularly confident in the avenues available to the company, and we continue to stay close to the opportunities on that side. So we get a little bit closer, I think we continue to monitor it, and we'll make some decisions with regard to that, but still almost a couple of years away.

And then to the second part of your question really around how we're thinking about the balance sheet overall and leverage level. I would say, as I pointed out earlier, that range of leverage that we had talked about, the low 3x to low 4x continues to be appropriate for us. And I do think specifically to your question, look, as we look at the business over the next several years, we do see a lot of upside, and we've articulated some of that in terms of the EBITDA levels this business could get to.

So I think that really is the focus when you think about leverage level for the company. And while there may be some near-term headwinds, and we haven't obviously provided guidance for next year yet, we're really looking big picture and longer term at where do we want the leverage level for the company to be relative to the growth prospects and the stabilized EBITDA we're expecting from the projects and investments we've made. So I think I would just keep that in mind as you think about where we want to take the balance sheet, and how we're thinking about the right level of debt for the company relative to the long-term earnings potential of the company.

[Operator]

We have no further questions registered at this point, so I'll turn the call back over to our Chair and CEO, Marcel Verbaas, for any closing remarks.

[Marcel Verbaas, executive]

Thank you, Charlie. Thanks for joining us this morning. I know we'll see many of you over the next few weeks. Those of you we won't see, we wish you a good rest of the year, good holiday season, and we look forward to connecting with everyone at the beginning of next year again.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may disconnect your lines.