WEC Energy Group Inc

NYSE:WEC

Earnings Call Analysis

Improved Earnings, Stable Growth Outlook

Third-quarter earnings rose to $1 per share, a $0.04 increase from the previous year, driven by rate base growth, improved fuel expense timing, and reduced operating costs despite a slight weather impact and higher depreciation. Retail sales reflected a residential usage increase of 1.3% but a slight decline in commercial and industrial sales. Capex is set to grow to support energy security and decarbonization, with significant investments planned for generating capacity in the outer years of a $3.3 billion increase. The company reaffirms its full-year guidance of $4.58 to $4.62 per share, incorporating expected weather patterns. Looking ahead, management aims to maintain financial health with a targeted FFO to debt ratio of 15% to 16%, as recognized by ratings agencies S&P and Moody's.

Strong Dividend Performance with Growth Aligned to Earnings

Investors who value consistent and growing dividends might find it noteworthy that the company stands in the top decile of its industry regarding dividend growth and has even been recognized as one of the best by Morningstar. Looking ahead, the company aims to maintain a payout ratio between 65% and 70% of earnings, signaling confidence in the ability to sustain dividend growth in tandem with its earnings per share.

Steady Earnings Growth with Positive Outlook Reinforced

The company reported an increase in third-quarter earnings for 2023, achieving $1 per share, which is a modest $0.04 rise compared to the previous year's same quarter. Despite headwinds such as higher expenses and lower sales volumes in specific customer segments, the company overcame these challenges through rate base growth and improved timing of fuel expenses. Investors can find solace in the reaffirmed annual earnings guidance, ranging from $4.58 to $4.62 per share.

Future Financing Strategy: Focused on Stability and Growth

Looking into the company’s five-year plan, it is anticipated that cash from operations will cover 65% of their financial needs. Additional funding will come from debt (28%) and equity (7%). In particular, equity financing is expected to range between $100 million to $200 million for 2024, and a total of $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion for the next five years. The structured approach to financing, combining reinvestment programs and at the market offerings, aims to support the company's long-term growth and strong credit metrics while focusing on capital needs.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to WEC Energy Group's Conference Call for Third Quarter 2023 results. This call is being recorded for rebroadcast. [Operator Instructions]

Before the conference call begins, I remind you that all statements in the presentation, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to change at any time. Such statements are based on management's expectations at the time they are made. In addition to the assumptions and other factors referred to in connection with the statements, factors described in WEC Energy Group's latest Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated.

During the discussions, referenced earnings per share will be based on diluted earnings per share, unless otherwise noted. After the presentation, the conference will be open to analysts for questions and answers. In conjunction with this call, a package of detailed financial information is posted at wecenergygroup.com. A replay will be available approximately 2 hours after the conclusion of this call.

And now it's my pleasure to introduce Gale Klappa, Executive Chairman of WEC Energy Group.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

From Americas Heartland, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today as we review our results for the third quarter of 2023. First, I'd like to introduce the members of our management team who are here with me today. We have Scott Lauber, our President and Chief Executive; Xia Liu, our Chief Financial Officer; and Beth Straka, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations. As you saw from our news release this morning, we reported third quarter 2023 earnings of $1 a share. We delivered another solid quarter of growth, and we remain on track for a strong 2023. Our focus on executing the fundamentals of our business is creating real value for our customers and our stockholders.

Today, we're also reaffirming our earnings guidance for the year. The range is $4.56 to -- I'm sorry, $4.58 to $4.62 a share with an expectation of completing the year in the upper half of the range. As always, this assumes normal weather through the final quarter of 2023.

Switching gears now, our big news for the day is the rollout of our ESG progress plan for the period 2024 through 2028. As you may have seen from our announcement this morning, we expect to invest $23.4 billion with an ongoing focus on efficiency, sustainability and growth. This is the largest capital plan in our history, an increase of $3.3 billion above our previous 5-year plan. That's more than a 16% increase. Several factors are driving the investment outlined in our updated ESG progress plan. The first of these factors is the economic growth we're seeing in the Milwaukee region, particularly in what we call the I-94 corridor in the southeastern part of the state, between Milwaukee and the Illinois State line. From data centers to pharmaceuticals to microinverters for solar panels, from even more gummy bears to massive new distribution and fulfillment centers. And this growth is also spanning new commercial and residential development in the region.

In our new 5-year plan, we expect our asset base to grow at an average rate of 8.1% a year. And as we fund this growth with an appropriate financing package, we project our earnings per share will continue to rise at a compound annual rate of 6.5% to 7% a year. As we've been discussing with you, our plan will include growth equity in the form of programmatic equity, including our dividend reinvestment plan, employee benefit plans and at the market plans. There is no need for block equity in the 5-year plan, and we'll start in 2024 by issuing $100 million to $200 million of new equity. Xia will provide you with more details on the financing plan in just a few minutes.

I'd also like to point out a few other quick highlights for you. Over the next 5 years, we'll continue to make great progress in transforming our power generation fleet and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In the plan, for example, we're making a significant commitment to new solar, wind and battery storage as well as modern efficient natural gas generation and LNG storage. In addition, we'll be adapting to the new seasonal capacity rules being put in place by MISO, mid-continent independent system operator. American Transmission Company will be adding needed transmission capability and to help assure energy security for our customers will continue to harden our distribution networks.

On the environmental front, our plan still calls for reducing CO2 emissions from our power generation fleet by 80% by the end of 2030. And I'm pleased to report that assuming timely regulatory approvals, we now project a complete exit from coal 3 years earlier by the end of 2032. So the future is bright. The investment opportunity is long, strong and highly executable, and Scott will provide you with some specifics in just a few minutes.

And now a brief look at the regional economy. The unemployment rate in Wisconsin stands at 3.1% continuing a long-running trend below the national average. And as we look inside the numbers, we see an encouraging upward trend in Wisconsin's labor force participation of this year. As I mentioned, growing companies are investing and expanding in our region. Microsoft is now moving dirt and moving full speed ahead to develop its new data center complex in that I-94 corridor we mentioned south of Milwaukee. And HARIBO officially opened the doors of its new confectionery plant in July. Fast forward to today, and HARIBO is already planning to double the size of its production capability, adding more capacity for gummy bears, new technology and additional employees. And also south of Milwaukee, Uline, plans to open a 1 million square foot facility this year, Uline in case you're not familiar with the name, is the leading distributor of shipping, industrial and packaging materials for businesses throughout North America and even more expansion is planned by Uline for 2025.

These developments highlight the strength and the potential of the Wisconsin economy and underscore the need for the investments we're outlining in our 5-year plan.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott for more specifics on our capital projects, our regulatory calendar and our operational highlights. Scott, all yours.

[Scott Lauber, executive]

Thank you, Gale. I'd like to start with some of the specifics on our capital plan. As Gale noted, we have identified $3.3 billion of additional investments compared to our last 5-year plan. I'll walk you through the changes. Between 2024 and 2028, we plan to increase our investment in renewables by $1.4 billion. With that, we expect to invest in 3,800 megawatts of new renewable capacity.

In the plan is a $1 billion increase in Transmission investment. This is our share of the ATC plan. Renewable projects and regional growth are among the driving factors. To support reliable service for our customers, we expect to spend an additional $1.3 billion on natural gas generation over the 5-year plan. This includes both combustion turbines and reciprocating internal combustion engines or RICE units. We also have planned to invest an additional $800 million in liquefied natural gas capacity which will be used for electric generation and for our natural gas operations on the coldest days of the year. With these important investments for our utilities, we have reduced our planned investment in our Energy Infrastructure segment. We'll be happy to share more details with you at the upcoming EEI conference.

Now moving on to the regulatory front. As you recall, we expect a decision from the Wisconsin Commission before the end of the year under limited reopener filings. We also have an update on our rate filings under review in Illinois for Peoples Gas and North Shore Gas. Recently, the administrative law judge on the case issued a proposed order largely consistent with staff's recommendation. The order recommends a 9.83% return on equity at both utilities, and we expect a final decision by the end of November.

And moving to the other states, I'm pleased to report that both the Minnesota and Michigan commissions have recently approved settlements on our rate reviews. Meanwhile, we're making progress on a number of regulated capital projects. As you recall, we closed on our first option at the West Riverside Energy Center earlier this year adding 100 megawatts of efficient combined cycle natural gas generation to our portfolio. Since our last call, we filed a request to purchase another 100 megawatts of Riverside capacity under our remaining option. Pending regulatory approval, we expect to invest $100 million to add this capacity in 2024.

Elsewhere in the state, work continues on the Badger Hollow II solar facility and the Paris and Darien Solar Battery Parks. You may recall, we had solar panels waiting on final release from a bonded warehouse in Chicago. I'm happy to report that those panels are being cleared. The first 100 megawatts have been released and the trucks are rolling to our Badger Hollow II site. We expect all of our panels to be released and in our position by the end of this year. We are on track for Badger Hollow II to go into service late this year or early next year with the Paris Solar Park to follow. In addition, work is underway on the Darien Solar facility, which is planned to go into service by the end of 2024. We'll keep you updated on any future developments.

With that, I'll turn things back to Gale.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Scott, thanks very much. And now just a quick reminder about our dividend. Our dividend growth continues to stand in the top decile of our industry. In fact, we were recently named 1 of the 10 best dividend stocks in America by Morningstar. As usual, I expect our Board will assess our dividend plans for next year and our regularly scheduled meeting in December. We continue to target a payout ratio of 65% to 70% of earnings. We're positioned well within that range now, so I expect our dividend growth will continue to be in line with the growth in our earnings per share.

Next up, Xia will provide you with more information on our third quarter financials and a good bit of detail on our upcoming 5-year financing plan. Xia, all yours.

[Liu Xia, executive]

Thanks, Gale. Our 2023 third quarter earnings of $1 per share increased $0.04 per share compared to the third quarter of 2022. Our earnings package includes a comparison of third quarter results on Page 15. I'll walk through the significant drivers. Our earnings from utility operations were $0.18 above the third quarter of 2022.

First, weather had an estimated $0.01 negative impact quarter-over-quarter.

Higher depreciation and amortization expense and interest expense added another $0.09 of negative variance.

These unfavorable variances were more than offset in the quarter. Rate-based growth contributed $0.13 to earnings. This includes the base rate increase for our Wisconsin utilities as well as the interim rate increase for Minnesota Energy Resources.

Additionally, timing of fuel expense improved our earnings by $0.13 and lower day-to-day O&M resulted in a $0.02 improvement. Before I turn to earnings at the Other segment, let me briefly discuss our weather-normalized sales for the quarter. You can find this sales information on Page 11 of the earnings package. Retail electric deliveries in Wisconsin, excluding the iron ore mine, were down 0.8% quarter-over-quarter. This was driven by lower sales volumes to large commercial and industrial customers. Residential usage was up 1.3% and is ahead of our forecast through the first 9 months of the year. Also, sales to our small commercial and industrial customers were up 0.4% and are tracking our forecast for the year.

Regarding our investment in American Transmission Company, earnings decreased $0.05 compared to the third quarter of 2022. Recall that last year, we recorded a $0.05 pickup from a resolution of MISO ROE appeals. Earnings at our Energy Infrastructure segment decreased $0.01 in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022. This was mostly driven by lower wind production partially offset by tax credits from projects that we placed into service.

Finally, you'll see that earnings at our Corporate and Other segment decreased $0.08 largely due to higher interest expense. As Gale noted, we are reaffirming our annual guidance of $4.58 to $4.62 per share. This includes October weather and assumes normal weather for the remainder of the year.

Now turning to our financing plan. Gale and Scott have already discussed the new 5-year capital plan.

I'll provide details related to our anticipated financing activities to support the plan. You can find this information on Page 22 of the earnings package. As you can see on the chart, over the next 5 years, we expect cash from operations to fund about 65% of our cash needs. About 28% of the funding is expected to come from debt and the remaining 7% from issuance of common equity.

As Gale mentioned earlier, we expect to utilize dividend reinvestment and employee benefit plans and as a market programs to tap into the equity market. Our common equity issuance is projected to be in the range of $100 million to $200 million for 2024 and $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion over the next 5-year plan.

Recall, our equity ratios in our utilities are thicker, particularly at Wisconsin Electric. Supporting these thicker equity layers results in approximately $400 million of common equity raise. The remaining equity raise represents approximately 50% of incremental capital spend. As you know, our equity issuances post 2024 will be tied to our capital plan ratably at approximately $450 million a year. This financing plan not only supports our long-term earnings growth rate, but also helps maintain our targeted credit metrics.

In addition, I'll quickly address our upcoming holding company refinancing needs. Over the next 3 years, we have total maturities of about $2.8 billion. The $600 million that matures in 2024 carries a very low coupon. However, the remaining $2.2 billion scheduled to mature in 2025, 2026 has a weighted average coupon of just under 5%, which represents lower refinancing risk.

In closing, as shown on the last page of the earnings package, through our capital allocation, we expect the percent of assets invested in our regulated electric businesses to grow faster. At the same time, the percent of assets in gas distribution and in contracted renewables is expected to decline. We are very excited about the investment opportunities ahead of us.

With that, I'll turn it back to Gale.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

All right, Xia, thank you very much. Overall, we're on track and the company continues to perform at a very high level. Operator, we're ready now for the question-and-answer portion of the call.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim.

[Shahriar Pourreza, analyst]

So Gale, obviously, in Xia's prepared remarks, she hit on why the equity guide was obviously somewhat larger than what would be dictated by the growth CapEx increase. It's obviously because of the higher equity layers. I guess how should we think about this in terms of the balance sheet capacity it gives you? How is the conversation with the current rating agencies and related, are you done now through the trajectory? Or could incremental CapEx lend to more equity? I mean you do tend to raise CapEx every year and the Microsoft opportunity still out there.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Yes, great question, Shar. Well, first of all, kind of let me back up and reiterate a couple of things that Xia mentioned. I think you can look at and Xia touched on this, about $400 million of the equity raise, at least in my mind, I look at that as kind of a onetime catch-up because over the last rate case outcomes, we've received thicker equity layers virtually in every situation. So about $400 million of that really just goes to support really strong credit metrics at all of our utilities.

So I would look at that particular $400 million chunk that Xia referred to, Shar, as kind of a onetime catch-up. And then to answer your question about further capital, and yes, the Microsoft plan is still being developed. We'll know a lot more in the next few months beyond what we've put in this plan related to Microsoft as they continue to refine their plan for the large complex that they're going to develop here in Southeastern Wisconsin. But I think the way to look at it is that incremental capital beyond what's in the plan, probably equity is about 50% of that incremental capital. Xia, any other thoughts?

[Liu Xia, executive]

No, you addressed it.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Shar, does that respond to your question?

[Shahriar Pourreza, analyst]

Fantastic. And then just the $3.3 billion, any sense on the profile of that CapEx? Or just that is like an EEI update?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Yes. Let's walk through all of that in detail at EEI for you. We'll have a very specific breakdown for you to EEI. But I think clearly, there's going to be some additional capital. I mean we mentioned generation and LNG has kind of large contributors to the capital plan. so I think the outer years or the later years in the 5-year plan will be larger than the first couple of years. I think the first couple of years, probably the increase will be more dominated by transmission in the first couple of years.

And then as we build generation and as we build the LNG facilities, you'll see kind of a rise in that 5-year capital plan. I will say this, there is no white space in that 5-year capital plan. I mean we have just tremendous opportunity in front of us.

[Shahriar Pourreza, analyst]

Got it. And that's how we should think about the profile of the equity, right, as it matches with the CapEx?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Absolutely. Yes. We will match the equity issuance with the capital investment each year.

[Shahriar Pourreza, analyst]

Got it. And then lastly, just moving to the Infrastructure segment. It's a pretty big reduction, Gale, in spending there. Is that a function of a lack of opportunities despite our IRA? Or is it more about making sure you kind of stay within that business risk profile and credit metrics to somewhat appease the agencies. I guess, how should we think about that segment on a go-forward basis?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Yes, Shar. Great question. Let me just first say, there's no lack of opportunity as we see it in the infrastructure segment. But what we're doing here is simply reallocating capital and resources to the tremendous growth opportunity that's evolving here in our regulated business, driven by Microsoft, driven by the other economic growth that we've described to you. So this is not really any comment at all in terms of the potential, the returns or the opportunity in the infrastructure segment is just we have a tremendous opportunity here and now to reallocate capital to our regulated enterprise.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Ross Fowler with UBS.

[Ross Fowler, analyst]

So Gale, just before we get into it, I've got November 22, already circled on my calendar for [indiscernible]. So we'll get there quick, quicker than you think.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

It'd really well. It would be fascinating.

[Ross Fowler, analyst]

So just a couple for me. I mean, I know, Gale, you talked about sort of the DRIP in the past. You never really turned it off to my understanding. You've just been sort of buying back those shares. What's kind of been the traditional uptake of that DRIP program as I try to scale that equity in the plan to sort of what is DRIP internal and what might be ATM?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Well, it's a good question, and I will look to Xia to make sure my numbers are right, but it's varied over the years, the DRIP program. But generally, it's about a $100 million to $150 million.

[Liu Xia, executive]

$100 million to $200 million over the -- on average over the past 4 years is not just DRIP. It's DRIP and the employee benefit plans. And so what we call the programmatic plan. So on average, it's $100 million to $200 million a year.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

And Ross, you're right. We have been buying shares off the market to satisfy both the DRIP plan and the employee benefit plan. So this simply kind of puts us back in a position where I think everybody else in the industry already is.

[Ross Fowler, analyst]

Right. Got you Gale. And then just there's been some confusion in the market maybe as you change sort of your coal retirement deadlines here in this plan and push those into the end of bring those forward, actually, I should say, to the end of '32. Just remind me how the power of the future works and then confirm for me that I'm right in thinking that if you do natural gas converting in that -- those units, if that fits into that mechanism as well?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Ross, you're absolutely right. It does fit into the mechanism. One way to look at it is all of the arrangements in all of the legal situations related to power of the future and all the regulatory situation related to the power of the future is fuel agnostic. So there's really no regulatory approval required for us to do the major activity that we're already underway with, which is beginning a transition of the new coal-fired units at our Oak Creek side, from coal to natural gas. And again, we're already making modifications at the plant itself. We're already testing burn of natural gas up to certain levels. We're planning to bring in larger meter sets, et cetera. So the work is underway to continue the transition of coal to natural gas at our new Oak Creek units, the other power of the future units are already natural gas fired. So but there is no -- there really is no legal or regulatory requirement related to related to the concept of transitioning from coal to natural gas.

[Ross Fowler, analyst]

And so that investment would earn that higher ROE and then go through that same sort of mortgage amortization process, if I'm thinking about that right?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

That is exactly correct, Ross. Yes.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

By the way, Michael, there's no truth to the rumor that you're dressing up as Taylor Swift tonight for Halloween, is there?

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

No, rather not with these at this point.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Or maybe you're dressing up as Travis Kelce. I'm not sure.

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

Anyways, at this point, where we're at on the Illinois case, is it fair to say we're going to a final order in those cases? Or is there still a chance something could be worked out here?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Time will tell obviously. My sense is we will probably end up with a final review and a final decision by the Illinois Commission. Scott, your view?

[Scott Lauber, executive]

Yes. I expect I think there's some oral arguments going on in the next couple of weeks, and I expect something by the end of November here.

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

Okay. Great. And then I just wanted to ask in terms of timing? I know a lot of people have been asking on this Gale, just your kind of timeline for being in the current role that you're in. I think the last update there was through May of '24. Just any sense of when you'll update us on that front? Are you tying yourself to Janus with his extension? Or how do we...

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Well, the problem is I asked our Board for an extension at the Janus's pay level, and I'm not sure they're going to buy that. I mean I appreciate the question. You're correct. My current agreement goes to May of 2024. We're having some really good discussions with the Board and with Scott, and we'll have an announcement here in the next very short period of time.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Bank of America.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

I now have a name for your new dog.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Go for it. I'm all ears.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Equity.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Fair enough, true story. Love it. [ Gary ] has got his second and I'm still here without it yet. So I got to catch up. That's all I got to say.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

There you go.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Sorry, he's dressing his dog up for Halloween and I still whatever. It's all good. Okay. Look, you always have fun and I always got to say. I mean I -- you still haven't fun though -- in the role, though, right? As a follow-up to the last question, Incre...

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Still having fun.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Okay. Excellent. Well, that's good to hear. Look, more seriously though, maybe just a follow up on this, on the Microsoft response just like what's embedded in the outlook versus what's incremental. I get that there's no white space. I mean, really, the question is, how soon and how much further can you go to the extent to which that they give clarity on their plans? Obviously, things are actively rolling on their front in addition to some of these other announcements that you articulated. I just wanted to understand how fully baked or how much -- well, obviously, it's fully baked, how much further you could go and how soon that could be, just given how meaningful the plan sizes are that are contemplated?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Yes, great question, Julien. So let's put a couple of numbers around it. In this 5-year plan and this new 5-year plan, we've included about 1,400 megawatts of additional capacity to support the Microsoft data center development and some of the broad-based economic growth that we've described to you. And that new capacity is really going to be needed for energy security and for us to continue to decarbonize but in the current plan to support the Microsoft development and some of the other that I-94 corridor development that we talked with you about. We're seeing the need for roughly 1,400 megawatts of additional capacity. That's embedded in that $3.3 billion increase in our capital plan. And we'll see where it goes.

But obviously, we are beginning the process of looking at ordering equipment and starting work on identifying sites, et cetera, et cetera. So much of that much of that capital for the capacity, the generating capacity will be in years 3, 4 and 5.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Got it. Excellent. And just on the other side of the CapEx update, if I can. First off, LNG versus more gas storage, obviously, you guys have done a number of those announcements over the years. Thoughts about further acquisitions on that front? Or just how you think about the fungibility this one between LNG and the other? And then related here, also a big update on the ATC front. Is that just all MISO Trans One, does that have white space in it? I mean just a big step on that front, too. It's overshadowed here by the generation, but I just want to come and address that, too.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

No. There -- again, no white space at all. Scott's on the ATC Board. We'll let ask -- got to respond to your question on the transmission.

[Scott Lauber, executive]

Yes. When you look at the transmission and it's up significantly, as you noted, it's a combination of the economic element that Gale talked about getting transmission to the region. Also the renewables, we're putting on the system and other utilities in the state of putting on the system and then just regular system renewal in ATC's footprint. So you put it all together and it's about $1 billion more, and I think you maybe saw their 10-year capital plan just came out and it was also a significant increase from the prior one. So good growth, just good executable capital also at American Transmission Company, and we're 60% of that.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

And Scott, from here in my discussions, some of that capital is really upgrading aging transmission facility.

[Scott Lauber, executive]

Exactly. It's renewing some of those older facilities that were put in years ago.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Does that answer your question...

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

And the gas storage?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Yes, the gas storage.

[Scott Lauber, executive]

Yes, the LNG and gas storage, the LNG is really making sure we have the capacity and putting those units in the state of Wisconsin just like over Christmas Day weekend, there was gas supply challenges, having the LNG tanks that we had at our South Oak Creek plant actually really helped the system, that particular day. So having that in the state of Wisconsin is going to be very helpful on those very cold days when we need that capacity.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Yes. Scott is exactly right. And just to add on to that, we don't ever want to go through another Christmas Eve like we went through last Christmas Eve. I mean, as you know, there was a very significant cold snap and many parts of the country had rolling blackouts, we did not. But a major transmission gas pipeline into Wisconsin lost about 40% of its capacity to bring gas in. If we hadn't had LNG storage right here that we could direct inject into our gas distribution networks, we would have had some real issues. So there's no doubt in our mind that for energy security, particularly at times when it gets to 20 and 30 degrees below 0. We need to have that capacity to keep gas flow and to keep the heat on and to keep the lights on in Wisconsin. So that's a big rationale a big part of what we're accomplishing with this investment that we've outlined.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Neil Kalton with Wells Fargo.

[Neil Kalton, analyst]

It's Halloween, fun day. So all is well down here. Just one quick question for you. So in the EPS CAGR, I think you affirmed the 6.5% to 7%. And just curious, are you assuming any changes to the allowed earned ROEs in that forecast over 5 years?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

No, we're basically assuming status quo.

[Neil Kalton, analyst]

Okay. That was my question. That is all.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

[Jeremy Tonet, analyst]

Happy Halloween there. I was just looking maybe to quantify transferability a little bit more. And if you could walk us through the role of IRA tax credit transferability in your financing plans, specifically kind of with the $16.5 billion to $17.5 billion in cash from operations, how much is tax credit there? And any sense as to how much incremental debt this allows you to take on?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Sure. We'll ask Xia to give you the details. I will say that there's a significant amount of cash coming in from transferability of the tax credits and is a very positive thing overall for our cash sources. Xia?

[Liu Xia, executive]

Yes. So in the 5-year plan, we expect between $1.6 to $1.8 billion tax credits either we will use for our own tax appetite or sell to some third parties. And that's part of the -- to your point, that's part of the FFO.

[Jeremy Tonet, analyst]

Got it. That's helpful there. And then just kind of continuing on, I guess, well with equity funding in general. I thank you for all the color that you provided here earlier, but just wondering, as you look forward to the plan, are your balance sheet metrics getting stronger or the metric is the same? Is this kind of looking to offset higher rates? Just wondering how this all comes together.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Getting stronger by the day.

[Liu Xia, executive]

Yes, we feel good about the -- hitting the target credit metrics. We're looking forward to sitting down. Scott and I are visiting the rating agencies next week. We look forward to the conversation with them.

[Jeremy Tonet, analyst]

Got it. And then maybe just a real quick last one. Been kind of better-than-expected results as we look forward into 4Q here, how we think about, I guess, O&M, should we expect to realize the full $40 million in nonrecurring O&M expenses from 4Q 2022 as we lap that, I guess, that positive variance there? And how does this impact your O&M outlook into '24?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Well, Jeremy, and we'll let Scott and Xia give you their view. Q4 last year had a lot of moving pieces that won't be repeated in Q4 this year. So I think you've got to look at it as a whole. There were close to $70 million of onetime or different initiatives and different levers that came to pass in Q4 of 2022, and that we're already in 2023 year folks. So again, I would look at -- I mean I think the O&M numbers were a bit distorted because of things that happened that deliberately, the actions that we took in the fourth quarter last year. So again, I would look at it a little bit more holistically. We've been projecting all year, a very strong fourth quarter. And in our minds, that's still very much intact. Xia?

[Liu Xia, executive]

Yes. Not much to add. I think we have a little bit of last fourth quarter, a little bit unfavorable weather. So hopefully, that's a tailwind. We have rate base increase. We have fuel upside. We have a very large O&M upside in the fourth quarter. So we feel very good about the fourth quarter projections.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Happy Halloween. Have you got your dog dressed up and named for the Halloween night here.

[Anthony Crowdell, analyst]

Deferred asset. No, no, no pets. The 4 daughters are overwhelmingly enough. But just, I guess, maybe just a quick housekeeping in Slide 21, great detail. And just curious, the footnote excludes ATC Capital. When we think of the growth going on at ATC Capital to Scott's comments earlier, is that self-funded? Or does that also require funding by Westcon by WEC?

[Liu Xia, executive]

Itself, it's more than self-funded. So we excluded the cap, the $3 billion in the uses. But in the sources, we also netted out the cash they send us versus what we send down to them, the net-net is a net positive. So they're self-funding but more than self-funding themselves.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

We get cash distributions back from ATC. So Xia is exactly right. It's self-funding plus cash back to the owners.

[Anthony Crowdell, analyst]

Great. And I'm sure you're not looking to front run your meeting with the rating agencies, but if I could focus on -- I think S&P right now has you on a negative outlook. Is your assumption that the current plan will resolve their concerns? I'm assuming, so I just wanted to double check with you there.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Well, a couple of things. First of all, just to clarify, the parent is on negative outlook. The utilities are stable. So I just want to make sure everybody remembers that. And then secondly, we think and will let Xia and Scott give you their view, but we think the fact that we're going to be issuing equity to support this growth plan will be viewed quite favorably. Again, we've not issued any new share since 2015 when we did the acquisition of Entegris. Scott, your thoughts?

[Scott Lauber, executive]

You're exactly right, Gale. And we'll sit down with them next week. They haven't seen the plan yet. So we just thought it made sense when we roll out the plan and then walk them through it year by year. And until they actually see it, it's hard to judge the decision. But I think we really complement it well with our capital to growth and the credit metrics overall.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Xia?

[Liu Xia, executive]

Nothing more to add. We appreciate the opportunity to sit down with them and talk through the details.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of [ Afri Mott ] with Landenburg.

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. Not to beat a dead horse, but roughly where with the new investment program and the additional equity do you land in terms of FFO to debt? Are you sort of in that 14% to 15% range that you've targeted?

[Liu Xia, executive]

No. We -- it's part of the package, I think we included. So we're targeting 15% to 16% by S&P and Moody's.

[Unknown Analyst]

Right. So do you fall within that range then in terms of -- with the additional equity and the additional investment?

[Liu Xia, executive]

Yes, absolutely.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Yes. Yes.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

That's the whole idea.

[Unknown Analyst]

Great. I just wanted to sort of confirm that. And then in terms of -- in terms of the coal exit, even though it's not sort of in your power of the future contract, it likely will have a bill impact on customers. So what sort of communication do you need to have with the existing commissioners?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Well, go ahead Scott.

[Scott Lauber, executive]

So when we look at it, we really don't see much of a bill impact because when you look at it, we're going to get the same output from the plant you just won't have the O&M associated with running with the coal. So the real change is going to be -- you eliminate coal but what is the price of natural gas. Natural gas would go up to $10, that's a whole different game but that's more of a fuel issue and it's the same thing with coal. So when you look at the operations, I don't think there's not a lot of capital investments that we're doing to do the conversion. They're smaller capital projects to just put in new burners. In fact, we're doing some this fall and next spring, we're putting in some new burners also.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

And just to add on to what Scott mentioned to you, this plan to convert from coal to natural gas at our newer Oak Creek units is one that's been in the making for at least a couple of years now. So we've had extensive ongoing discussions with the commissioners. They understand what we're trying to achieve. They understand the importance of continuing to cost effectively reduce CO2 emissions. And remember, our goal, which we're on track to achieve, is an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by the end of 2030. So this is not a new concept to anyone in the state.

[Scott Lauber, executive]

And when you think about the EPA rules going forward, if it was on coal, you'd have to put in carbon capture or do something with hydrogen and carbon capture would be extremely expensive and where do you put the carbon once you capture it. So we looked at what's efficient in the long term.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

And one more fact. I think it's very important to remember how critical an asset those new Oak Creek units are on most days in the Midwest operator footprint because of the efficiency of those units and because of their incredible connection to the transmission network. Those units help keep the lights on, not only in Wisconsin, but across the Midwest. So a very important asset. We're on track to do what we need to do to continue the life of that asset for a long period of time with much lower emissions.

[Operator]

Your last question today comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates.

[Paul Patterson, analyst]

Good greetings. So just back to the whole -- back to the rate question, I guess, with the new outlook that you guys have regarding rate base growth, obviously, interest rates, inflation, et cetera, what is your expectation in Wisconsin and Illinois in terms of what base rate changes customers might see? Has it changed or?

[Gale Klappa, executive]

Not really, but let's kind of take it state by state.

In Illinois, what we're proposing in our current rate review is really no change in the level of investment in upgrading the pipe system, the natural gas pipe delivery system under Chicago. So we've been averaging about $280 million a year of investment and upgrading that aging corroding pipe network. We're about 35%, 36% complete with the upgrades and we're proposing to continue at about $280 million a year. That's about the pace that we can do to get work done inside the city of Chicago.

So -- and remember, in our current rate review proposal in Chicago, even with the rate increase if fully approved, coupled with the decline in commodity costs of natural gas, we're expecting flat customer bills for this coming winter in Illinois. So essentially, this plan really doesn't change the underlying fact pattern in Illinois. And with the load growth, the demand growth that we expect to see in Wisconsin, again, we've been saying we think inflation-related rate increases in Wisconsin and Scott -- that's the least to me seems to still be the case.

[Scott Lauber, executive]

Yes. And we'll see as we continue to roll out the plans here and look at the timing of it. So I think it will be inflation, approximately inflation as you go forward.

[Gale Klappa, executive]

I hope that responds. Paul. Thank you.

All right, sports fans. Well, this concludes our conference call for today. Thanks so much for your questions. Thanks for participating. If you have any additional questions, feel free to contact Beth Straka. She can be reached at [phone] and we look forward to seeing you all in Phoenix in just a couple of weeks. Take care, everyone.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.