Veralto Corp
NYSE:VLTO
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Veralto Corp
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Veralto Corp
The company's effective pricing strategies contributed significantly to its performance, aiding in a 3% increase in sales growth for the fourth quarter compared to the previous year. This approach also helped the company navigate through economic difficulties, including the substantial devaluation of the Argentine peso, which posed a significant challenge. Nevertheless, the company managed to achieve a 5% rise in gross profit, taking it to $746 million, with a gross margin improvement of 90 basis points, now at 57.9%. Operating profit also saw an expansion by 50 basis points to 23.8%. Moreover, the company demonstrated resilience by ending the year with a healthy cash position in Argentina, alongside a commendable increase of 9% in adjusted earnings per share to $0.87 for the fourth quarter, surpassing the high end of its guidance.
The Water Quality segment turned in an impressive year with 3.4% sales growth and core sales up by over 2%. The demand for water treatment solutions showed robustness, particularly in industrial markets and the semiconductor industry. Despite experiencing a softening demand in China due to government funding cutbacks, the company maintained a strong profitability trajectory within this segment. Adjusted operating profit jumped by 9% with margins extending by 150 basis points to 26%. The full year marked a milestone with Water Quality achieving over $3 billion in sales and $746 million in adjusted operating profit.
The PQI segment also exhibited advancement with sales amounting to $506 million in Q4, rising by 2.9% versus the prior year. The segment's core sales uplifted by 1.1% due to a favorable pricing impact of 1.8%. Consumer-packaged goods markets are displaying signs of incremental improvement, and the company remains cautiously optimistic about their recovery. PQI's adjusted operating profit maintained steady performance in the face of currency devaluation, recording $123 million for Q4 and signaling optimistic momentum as the company enters the new fiscal year.
Financially, the company is positioned strongly with a generation of $263 million in cash from operations and a free cash flow of $241 million, highlighting its impressive free cash flow conversion of 121%. There were no interest cost payments during this period, but they will resume in the upcoming fiscal year. The year ended with a gross debt of $2.6 billion against cash reserves of $762 million, leading to a managed net leverage of 1.5x. The company's financial strategy aligns with creating shareholder value through reinvestment in high return on invested capital organic growth areas, strategic acquisitions, and maintaining the ability to return capital to shareholders through dividends.
Looking ahead into 2024, the company foresees core sales growth in the low single digits across its segments. The anticipated growth includes a pricing target increase of 100 to 200 basis points, consistent with pre-pandemic levels. Adjusted operating profit margin is aimed to improve by 50 to 75 basis points, with expected contributions from reduced Argentine peso exposure and the benefits outweighing the headwinds from corporate expenses. The guidance sets an adjusted EPS range between $3.20 to $3.30 per share, assuming a 25% effective tax rate, and anticipates a gradual improvement in core sales growth as the year progresses.
The year 2023 concluded with the company attaining 2.6% core sales growth and expanding its adjusted operating profit margin by 50 points, accompanied by a noteworthy free cash flow conversion of 109%. These achievements underscore the company's operational execution, particularly in the context of considerable macroeconomic variability and a competitive comparison to 2022.
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My name is Shelby, and I will be your conference operator this morning. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Veralto Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I will now turn the call over to Ryan Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Taylor, you may begin your conference.
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us on the call. With me today are Jennifer Honeycutt, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sameer Ralhan, our Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is simultaneously being webcast. A replay of the webcast will be available on the Investors section of our website later today under the heading Events and Presentations. A replay of the call will be available until February 21, 2024.
Before we begin, I'd like to point out that yesterday, we issued our fourth quarter news release, earnings presentation and supplemental materials, including information required by the SEC Regulation G related to any adjusted or non-GAAP financial measures. These materials are available in the Investors section of our website, www.veralto.com, under the heading Quarterly Earnings. Reconciliations of adjusted figures and all non-GAAP measures are provided in the appendix of the webcast slides. Unless otherwise noted, all references to variances are on a year-over-year basis.
During the call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements regarding events or developments that we believe or anticipate will or may occur in the future. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those set forth in our most recent SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially from any forward-looking statements that we make today. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date that they are made, and we do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jennifer.
Thank you, Ryan. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today. 2023 was a historic year for Veralto as we successfully executed our separation from Danaher and delivered a record level of sales, high single-digit earnings growth and strong free cash flow in a dynamic macro environment.
From a segment perspective, our teams in Water Quality achieved a record level of sales and operating profit despite headwinds in China. And in Product Quality & Innovation, our teams held sales and profitability flat year-over-year despite headwinds from consumer packaged goods demand and the Argentine peso. I'm proud of our team for their resilient effort to grow and improve our business while supporting our customers and helping to ensure the safety of water, food and medicine supply chains across the world.
We finished 2023 with a strong fourth quarter, delivering core sales growth in both segments, solid operating margin expansion and robust free cash flow generation. From a segment perspective, we saw continued growth across industrial markets in Water Quality and early signs of stabilization in consumer packaged goods markets and Product Quality & Innovation. As we begin 2024, we are in a strong financial position and are cautiously optimistic about the near-term trends in our end markets.
Over the long term, we remain focused on compounding earnings and cash flow through steady core sales growth, continuous operating improvement and value-accretive acquisitions that yield attractive returns.
Our team is tremendously excited about the significant opportunities to create future value for shareholders while also having an enduring positive impact on our world through our unifying purpose of safeguarding the world's most vital resources. We are unwavering in these commitments and confident in our ability to achieve them collectively.
Looking at our full year 2023 results. Sales grew 3.1% year-over-year to more than $5 billion, an all-time high. Core sales grew 2.6% following 2 consecutive years of 8% core growth, and we delivered 50 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion. Adjusted EPS grew 7% year-over-year and free cash flow generation remains strong with free cash flow conversion at 109%.
We ended the year at a strong financial position with more than $760 million of cash on hand and net leverage of 1.5x. Overall, I'm pleased with the steady growth and improvement we delivered in 2023 despite headwinds from lower volumes in consumer packaged goods markets, a slower economy in China and the devaluation of the Argentine peso.
In addition to delivering solid financial performance, during 2023, we bolstered our leadership talent, realigned our commercial teams and continue to optimize our portfolio and launched several new technology solutions. Over the past year, we increased the rigor around our innovation process and have started to see early benefits. A great example to highlight is Videojet, our marking and coding business, which launched 7 new products in 2023 to fortify and expand its leading technology position. These launches include differentiated technology in both our continuous inkjet and laser offerings.
In inkjet, Videojet launched the new 1580 C, which prints pigmented color codes without increased maintenance, enabling superior uptime while delivering crisp, high-quality contrast codes. And in laser, Videojet launched its 3350, which features our new Smart Focus technology, allowing increased flexibility for seamless product changeovers with no manual intervention. These new products demonstrate our innovation focus on solving customer problems, and we are excited about their growth potential.
Turning now to our financial results for Q4. We delivered 1.7% core sales growth year-over-year with 50 points of adjusted operating margin expansion and 9% adjusted EPS growth. Core growth of 1.7% exceeded the top end of our guidance due to strong execution by our teams in both segments and better-than-anticipated demand, particularly in food and beverage consumer packaged goods markets where volume started to turn positive.
We are encouraged by the signs of stabilization we saw in the latter part of 2023. It's important to recognize that we are still in the early stages of recovery here. We are cautiously optimistic about the CPG markets at the outset of 2024 and remain prudent in our expectations of steady sequential improvement in demand as this year progresses.
Q4 sales into China were also better than anticipated, down only 3% year-over-year and up 7% sequentially, a nice recovery from Q3 to Q4. Versus the prior year period, both segments delivered core sales growth through continued strong price execution and, to a lesser extent, volume growth in our water treatment solutions, particularly for industrial applications. Adjusted operating profit grew 5% and margins expanded 50 basis points to 23.8%.
We delivered strong underlying margin expansion through price execution, cost optimization and improved operating performance driven by the Veralto Enterprise System. Adjusted EPS was $0.87 per share in the fourth quarter, $0.03 above the high end of our guidance range. Adjusted EBITDA was $316 million or 24.5% of sales and we generated $241 million of free cash flow at just over 120% conversion. Our Q4 financial performance reflects our ability to navigate a dynamic macro environment and is a testament to delivering results and meeting our commitments through the Veralto Enterprise System.
Looking now at core sales growth by geography for the fourth quarter. We grew about 5% year-over-year in North America and over 2% in high-growth markets, more than offsetting a 2% decline in Western Europe. In North America, we continue to see strong growth in Water Quality, highlighted by our water treatment businesses.
ChemTreat grew sales in the high single digits with broad-based growth across industrial end markets and continued new customer wins. And at Trojan, we continue to see growth in North America, driven primarily by demand from municipal customers for our UV systems focused on wastewater discharge regulations and contaminant destruction in drinking water. Trojan also continued to see steady growth in its Aria Filtra product line serving industrial customers in North America. This is a great example of renewed strategy and strong execution driving value-accretive growth.
In PQI, core sales in North America were flat as modest growth and marking and coding was offset by a decrease in sales of packaging and color hardware equipment.
In Western Europe, we also saw moderate declines in sales of packaging and color hardware equipment. Demand from water analytics and treatment was steady in Western Europe across both municipal and industrial customers.
Fourth quarter sales into high-growth markets were up 2% year-over-year. And low single digit growth in Latin America and strong double-digit growth in the Middle East and India offset a 3% decline in China.
For the full year, we delivered growth across the 3 regions, led by 4% growth in North America and 2.5% growth in Western Europe. These 2 regions represent more than 2/3 of our total sales. Sales in the high-growth markets were up 1% in 2023, with strong growth in Latin America, the Middle East and India more than offsetting a high single-digit decline in core sales year-over-year in China.
That concludes my opening remarks. And at this time, I'll turn the call over to Sameer for a detailed review of our fourth quarter financial performance.
Thanks, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone.
I'll begin with our consolidated results for the fourth quarter on Slide 8. Fourth quarter net sales grew 3.3% on a year-over-year basis to $1.29 billion. Our core sales were up 1.7% and currency contributed 1.6%. We continue to execute well on pricing, which contributed 3% to sales growth in the fourth quarter over the prior year period. You can see this benefit in our gross profit, which increased 5% on a year-over-year basis to $746 million. Gross margin was 57.9%, up 90 basis points from the prior year fourth quarter. Adjusted operating profit increased 5% year-over-year and adjusted operating profit margin expanded 50 basis points to 23.8%.
As Jennifer mentioned, further devaluation of the Argentine peso was a significant headwind that we offset in Q4. Late in the fourth quarter, the Argentine peso declined by more than 50% relative to the U.S. dollar. This reduced the value of our cash on hand in the region and led to a significant quarter in the PQI segment.
On a year-over-year basis, the impact of the fourth quarter was $17 million or 130 basis points to our total adjusted operating profit margin. And for the full year, it was a $29 million headwind or 55 basis point headwind to the adjusted operating profit margin.
We ended 2023 with approximately $15 million of cash and $5 million of accounts receivable in Argentina. We continue to evaluate options to mitigate the impact of further devaluation while serving the needs of our customers in the country. The net EPS impact from the Argentine peso devaluation was approximately $0.03 in the fourth quarter. Despite this headwind, we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.87 in the fourth quarter, up 9% year-over-year and $0.03 above the high end of our adjusted EPS guidance range. We also delivered strong cash conversion in the quarter. We generated $241 million of free cash flow, representing free cash flow conversion of 121%.
Moving to the next chart, I'll cover the segment highlights, starting with Water Quality. Our Water Quality segment delivered $782 million of sales, up 3.4% on a year-over-year basis. Currency was a 1.3% benefit. Core sales grew just over 2% year-over-year as compared to 9.5% core growth in the prior year period, bringing a 2-year core growth stack for Water Quality to about 6%.
Pricing contributed 4.2% to core sales growth in Q4 2023. We continue to see strong demand for our water treatment solutions with steady growth across industrial markets at ChemTreat and high demand for Trojan's UV systems in both municipal markets and in the semiconductor industry, where manufacturing of chips requires ultra-pure water.
And in water analytics, as expected, we experienced lower year-over-year demand in China, where municipal budgets continue to be impacted by reductions in government funding. On a positive note, sequential sales for water analytics in China have been consistent now for 3 consecutive quarters. Adjusted operating profit increased 9% year-over-year with margins up 150 basis points to 26%. The increase in profitability was across all key businesses in the Water Quality segment and primarily reflects strong pricing execution and improved operating productivity.
For the full year, Water Quality delivered steady, profitable growth with core sales up 5% and adjusted operating profit margin up 80 basis points to 24.5%. As Jennifer mentioned, 2023 marked a record year for Water Quality with sales over $3 billion and adjusted operating profit of $746 million, both all-time high levels on an annual basis.
Moving to the next page. Our PQI segment delivered sales of $506 million in the fourth quarter, up 2.9% versus the prior year period. Currency was at 1.8% benefit. Core sales grew 1.1% as 1.8% benefit from pricing more than offset modest volume declines from the prior year quarter, primarily related to CPG markets. While still down year-over-year, demand from CPG customers steadily improved during the quarter and came in better than our guidance assumptions. Additionally, sales into China came in better than anticipated, up 1% over the prior year quarter.
From a product perspective, core sales in both marking and coding solutions and packaging and color solutions grew in line with the segment at about 1% year-over-year. PQI's recurring sales grew mid-single digits year-over-year with growth across every major product line, an encouraging sign.
We continue to see signs of sequential stabilization across PQI's end markets, led by increased demand from our food and beverage customers. That said, we are still in the early stages of recovery here and are cautiously optimistic about CPG volumes as we begin 2024.
PQI's adjusted operating profit was $123 million in the fourth quarter, resulting in adjusted operating profit margin of 24.3%. These results include the unfavorable impact from the devaluation of the Argentine peso. That impact resulted in 330 basis points of headwind to adjusted operating profit margin on a year-over-year basis for the fourth quarter and a 145 basis point headwind for the full year. Excluding the impact from the Argentine peso devaluation, for the fourth quarter, PQI's underlying operating profit grew low double digits year-over-year and adjusted operating profit margin expanded to about 28%.
And for the full year, PQI's underlying profit grew in the high single digits on flat sales and adjusted operating profit margin expanded to about 27%. Strong pricing execution and benefits from cost optimization actions were the primary drivers of improved underlying profit and margin performance.
For the full year, PQI sales and profitability were essentially flat year-over-year, a great result considering the significant headwinds from destocking and lower volumes at consumer packaged goods customers, a challenging economy in China and the currency devaluation in Argentina. The teams within the PQI segment were able to withstand these headwinds to turn in a great result for 2023 with positive momentum building as we enter 2024.
Turning now to our balance sheet and cash flow. During the quarter, we generated $263 million of cash from operations and invested $22 million in capital expenditures. Free cash flow was $241 million in the quarter resulting in free cash flow conversion of 121%. This quarter again demonstrates the strong free cash flow generation capabilities of our businesses. Note that we did not have any cash payments related to interest costs in Q4 2023. Beginning in 2024, we will have interest payments in the first and third quarter. At year-end, gross debt was $2.6 billion and cash on hand was $762 million. Net debt was $1.9 billion resulting in net leverage of 1.5x.
In summary, we further strengthened our financial position during the quarter and have ample liquidity. This gives us flexibility in how we deploy capital to create long-term shareholder value. Our bias, as you know, is to drive compounding growth in earnings and cash flow through investment in high ROIC organic growth opportunities, aligned with secular growth drivers in both of our businesses and strategic acquisitions that drive long-term value creation.
Within our framework, we also maintain flexibility to return capital to shareholders. In line with our capital allocation framework, we declared a cash dividend of $0.09 per share for the fourth quarter.
Turning now to our guidance for 2024. Beginning with our expectation for the full year, we expect core sales to grow low single digit on a year-over-year basis. This assumes low single-digit growth across both of our segments. We are targeting 100 to 200 basis points of price, consistent with historical prepandemic levels. Our guidance assumes corporate and other expense of about $100 million, reflecting the full annual run rate of stand-alone costs.
Looking at adjusted operating profit margin, we are targeting 50 to 75 basis points of improvement this year. This assumes 65 to 90 basis points of operating profit margin improvement across the businesses and approximately 25 basis points benefit from lower exposure to the Argentine peso. These benefits more than offset a 40-point headwind from the full run rate level of corporate and stand-alone company expenses.
Our adjusted EPS guidance for the full year 2024 is in the range of $3.20 per share to $3.30 per share. This assumes an effective tax rate around 25%. From a sequential perspective, our guidance assumes that year-on-year core sales growth steadily improves quarter-to-quarter through 2024, with core sales growth in the first half of the year relatively flat and core sales growth in the second half, up low to mid-single digits.
Looking now at Q1 2024, we expect core sales to be approximately flat year-over-year. At segment level, we expect core sales in Water Quality to be flat to modestly positive and core sales in PQI to be flat to modestly negative. As a reminder, Water Quality core sales growth was 11% in Q1 2023, resulting in a tough year-over-year comparison.
Additionally, pruning of the portfolio which resulted in the shutdown of small product lines in Water Quality, represents 60 basis points headwind to core sales growth for the segment of the quarter. We anticipate adjusted operating profit margin in the range of 23% to 23.5%, and our Q1 2024 guidance for adjusted EPS is $0.73 to $0.78 per share.
That concludes my prepared remarks. At this time, I'll turn the call back to Jennifer for closing remarks before we open up the call for questions.
Thanks, Sameer. In summary, we successfully executed our spin-off from Danaher and are off to a great start as a public company. In 2023, we delivered 2.6% core sales growth, 50 points of adjusted operating profit margin expansion and a 109% free cash flow conversion, solid operating results amid a dynamic macro backdrop and against a tough comparison relative to 2022.
Going forward, we are focused on delivering our commitments, driving continuous improvement and executing disciplined strategic capital allocation that creates long-term value for shareholders.
As an independent company, we are benefiting from increased operational focus with 100% of our capital available for strategic growth and value creation. We are confident that the durability of our businesses, the essential need for our technology solutions and the strong secular growth drivers of our end markets will provide steady growth consistent with our historical track record. The combination of our leading brands, proven value creation playbook powered by VES and the strength of our balance sheet, differentiates Veralto and positions us to deliver sustainable, long-term shareholder value.
And as we look to build our future, we are unified and inspired by our shared purpose, Safeguarding the World's Most Vital Resources. Our talented diverse team is excited about the bright future ahead and the opportunities to drive value creation for shareholders by helping customers solve some of the world's biggest challenges while having a positive enduring impact on our environment. That concludes our prepared remarks. I want to thank you again for joining our call.
And at this time, we are happy to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] And we'll take our first question from Scott Davis with Melius Research.
Looks like China is still a little bit sloppy for you guys. It has been for everybody else too, so not a big surprise. But any color what your folks there are telling you? Any sense of if we're closing in on a bottom here or what you think in the next couple of quarters on a sequential ramp?
Yes. I mean, I think in the fourth quarter China came in a little bit better than how we were anticipating. We saw some nice growth in our Trojan UV systems, really related to semiconductor chip manufacturing. We did anticipate municipal markets to be down, and as expected, they were year-over-year. But we have seen now 3 quarters of consecutive stability in that market. I think going forward in 2024, I think we're pretty much near the bottom and we anticipate steady sequential performance improvement stability for the second half of 2024. So a little bit more of the same. We'll see year-on-year sales decline during the first half, which we expect to improve throughout the balance of the year.
Yes, Scott, maybe I can just add from the guide perspective, the way we model China is effectively, as Jennifer said, sequential improvement. But for the first half of the year, it's going to be a little bit of headwind for us. And in the second half, it will kind of start stabilizing and we look positive. So that's how we're going to think about China in terms of our guidance.
Okay. Helpful. And then just changing gears, I know -- I don't want to overread this, but Sameer, in your prepared remarks, you just mentioned something about returning -- potential for returning capital. Still, I would imagine the focus is around M&A. So perhaps just an update on what you're thinking on an M&A pipeline and likelihood or potential of transactions in 2024 and how you guys are feeling about that part of the equation.
Yes. I think the return of capital to shareholders, obviously, we have an ongoing continued bias towards M&A. We did announce in the fourth quarter a $0.09 dividend. But our pipeline for M&A in both Water Quality and PQI remains strong with the number of opportunities being considered. So we're going to maintain, as we said before, a disciplined approach that we've inherited from Danaher in terms of it's got to be the right market, the right company at the right price.
In terms of valuation, we do have a whole variety of different kinds of assets that we're looking at, but we do like targets that have a similar operating profile in terms of the durability of the business model. And we like businesses that we can improve in terms of margin expansion through the use of VES. So yes, we are fully committed to long-term shareholder value through capital deployment.
Freudian slip. Best of luck in '24, and congrats on the start.
That's 23 years of Danaher coming through, Scott. Thank you.
And we'll take our next question from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.
Maybe we'll start with more of a housekeeping question just in terms of Veralto still being a new company. Can you characterize and frame some of the frictional costs that might still be running through the P&L, like transitional services? And I know you did some portfolio line shutdown of that European filtration separation business. It really was an outlier in the portfolio. But just kind of frame for us what might be those frictional costs that are there now and what the timing might be?
Yes, Deane, let me just start on the frictional cost stuff. Like I think that as we kind of said in the guide, starting Q1, we should pretty much start seeing the run rate cost on the stand-alone company basis as well as the corporate function. So $100 million in the corporate other that you have in the guide kind of really represents the run rate. So beyond that, there's no sort of major frictional cost or the onetime costs, pretty much done as well. On the [TSS] side, Deane, as we have said earlier, this was a very clean separation from a [TSA] perspective. So it is very minimal in terms of dollars, like it's rounding together. So I wouldn't think about any kind of any remaining frictional cost, per se.
On the portfolio side -- and on the portfolio side, it's up 60 basis points impact, as we said, on the Water Quality side. So again, you can do the math, it comes down to $15 million, $20-ish million kind of a headwind kind of action that we took really cleaning up some of the product lines as we inherited some of the filtration assets from Danaher as a good stewards of capital just sitting back, saying, "Hey, every product line has to earn its place in the portfolio." And some of the product lines and geography combinations just did not meet that hurdle so we took some actions. But that is minor sort of a regular portfolio cleanup, frankly.
I know there's a continuous review, but are most of those cleanups done at this point?
Yes. I mean, the 2 minor strategic actions we took amounted to about $20 million in annual revenue. We look at the portfolio on an ongoing basis. And I would say that there's nothing material that needs to be done from a transformation standpoint. But we will continue to sort of prune and invest as appropriate where we see the growth opportunities and the required return on investment.
Great. And then just second question but a bit related. You mentioned filtration. I'd be interested in hearing a bit about Aria Filtra. I mean, this was a fabulous brand within Danaher as Pall Water, one of the leaders in membrane filtration. Just give us a sense of where and how are you positioning this business in Veralto, either strategically kind of what end markets and what opportunities for growth do you have?
Yes, you bet. Well, as you cited there, the Aria Filtra business is the rebranded Pall Water business, and we've actually pivoted how we're investing in this business. We're seeing very strong demand, particularly in critical applications for drinking water and potable reuse. So when it comes to recycled reclaim, it's an essential technology. And certainly in the macro, that's becoming more important part of water conservation. But we have repositioned this product line to allocate resources, the highest return opportunities with more focus in North America and additional investments in mobile water treatment.
And we'll take our next question from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Jennifer, Sameer, can you give us more color into what you're seeing in product quality focused markets? I think you had guided to down low to mid-single digits in Q4, yet as you said, you came in over 1% core growth. And core growth accelerated relatively significantly versus Q3. We know comparisons are a bit easier, but you did mention the early signs of recovery, particularly food and beverage packaging customers.
So could you elaborate on what you're seeing? Have you seen continued recovery as we started Q1 here? And I know you suggested low single-digit growth for the segment '24. Is it just a tough comparison that is leading you to guide to flat to down for Q1?
Yes. So thank you for the question. I think what we said here as we came out of Q3, that customer destocking has largely been completed. We are 75% direct-to-customer short-cycle business. So we don't have a lot of inventory sitting in a lot of intermediary depots. But what we did see in Q4 is the sales of PQI consumables by way of ink, solvents and spare parts growing mid-single digits year-over-year. And we're also hearing from customers in the market that believe some of the leading indicators have turned positive.
Now this is predominantly in certain sectors of the food and beverage markets. But as price and volume in consumer packaged goods and groceries and the like start to rebalance, those lines are coming back online, and we're starting to see some of that volume start to increase as that equation rebalances. So we do think that we'll continue to see a steady sequential recovery over the course of the year, but I think we're being prudent and modestly optimistic about how to think about that.
And Andy, if I can just add a couple of comments as it relates to the guide. We expect steady recovery in the CPG market sequentially, but overall being cautious as we kind of look at the commentary from the CPG customers and also what we're seeing in the channel. So from an overall year perspective, we're modeling in low single-digit core growth for the business. And -- but the volume is going to be a tale of 2 halves.
Effectively at this point, from a guide perspective, we're modeling in low single-digit kind of decline on the volume side, and that's going to -- that essentially means accelerating into positive low single digits in the second half on gradual market recovery. So that's how we're kind of modeling it in the guide.
Okay. Very helpful. And then maybe a similar question on the Water Quality side. It was also better than you guided in Q4, but still has been slowing a bit year-over-year, comps are getting a little easier. So are you still seeing some reticence in the part of U.S. municipal customers? I guess it's more focused on Hach there. But is it really China just slowing you down for Hach? What's going on in the U.S.? And do you have visibility towards Water Quality, getting back overall to mid-single-digit levels of growth at some point in '24?
Yes. I mean you cited the comp challenge, right? I think in first quarter here is the last of our really tough comps on a year-over-year comparative basis. But in North America, we saw nice growth and continue to see nice growth for demand of our UV Trojan systems, and this is particularly related to reuse treatment for potable water. We see demand for analytics steady on a year-over-year basis and saw some increase sequentially from Q3 to Q4. Europe, we see steady demand there coming out of Q4.
I do think China is still a little bit suppressed in terms of its demand, although we're seeing sequentially stable demand throughout the third quarter here. Year-over-year demand was down in China just due to lower government funding relative to 2022, but we're cautiously optimistic about the sequential improvement over the course of the coming quarters in China. We don't think it's going to get any worse and we've had a positive start here in January right out of the gate. So it's a little bit variable across the geographies, but we see good demand for where investments are happening.
Yes. And Andy, just one quick point I would add to that is, as you're going to think about Water Quality, in the Q1, it's a very tough comp, as Jennifer just mentioned. And also, most of our portfolio does not have any seasonality. But Water Quality is one where we do see a little bit. Q4 tends to be strong, as the budgets are finishing up, the municipalities and similar institutions kind of making decisions, Q1 and the beginning of the year, people are a little reticent to how they are kind of think about spending on the budget. So there's a little bit of seasonal element into Water Quality, it's not a whole lot, but that's something to keep in mind as well and that's kind of baked into the Q1 guide.
And we'll take our next question from Mike Halloran with Baird.
Maybe we could have a similar conversation on how you're thinking about the margins given the separation and moving pieces around everything. How do you think about the jump-off point into '24 from a margin level? Is the fourth quarter, if you adjust for the deval, the right way to think about the 2 segments? And then how do you think about cadence through the year and 2024? Should you just kind of follow that revenue pattern you were talking to? Is there a different pattern to think about?
Yes, Mike, I'll take that one. As you're going to look at the margin profile, we had a pretty strong finish to Q4. But as we kind of move from Q4 into 2024, for the full year, we expect to deliver 50 to 75 basis points. There's going to be a sort of a sequential improvement through the year. In Q1, as you can imagine, we're going to probably see the biggest impact on the run rate of the standup and the corporate cost. So that's going to have a tough compare in Q1 on a year-over-year basis.
We're also making some select investments in both Water Quality side and PQI side, more oriented towards growth in the sales and marketing kind of initiatives, which are going to impact Q1. But overall, as you kind of think about for the full year, we expect to deliver 50 to 75 basis points of margin expansion, and that includes roughly $40 million of headwinds that's going to come from run rate corporate expenses and the standard company costs. So 50% to 75% of the margin will be the fall-through of roughly 40 basis points is how we think about it.
Okay. And I might have missed this, and I appreciate that. What's the interest expense expected to be this year?
Yes. Interest expense, you should think of, Mike, roughly $140 million on a run rate basis for us. That includes a little bit of a benefit from the interest income. But overall, $140 million is a good assumption for modeling purposes.
And we'll take our next question from Nathan Jones with Stifel.
Question first on PQI. I think it makes sense that you would see the recovery in consumables first. Can you talk a little bit about what would be a typical lag time before you start to see improvement on the equipment side from that improvement in consumables?
Yes. I think it's typically a couple of quarters. It certainly depends upon the individual company and customer. But generally, I would say that it's around 2 quarters.
Okay. And then I wanted to follow up on Deane's question about Aria filtration. A couple of the comments that you made there sort of lead me to questions about the strategy there. Are we looking at some kind of outsourced water model, water-as-a-service model where you're kind of able to leverage the footprint you have in testing to build that kind of a business up? Is that the kind of thing that we're talking about the change in strategy of that business?
Yes. I mean, certainly every business will take a look at its portfolio and position it to be -- to fully meet the needs of the customers and certainly align with where the opportunities are. That is not currently in our purview, but remains to be something that could conceivably be considered in the course of sort of moving the strategy along.
Yes. The strategy point, Nathan, is more around really focusing around geography product combination. So this is not a complete [wholesale] change in strategy. I just want to highlight that.
And just the last one on price cost. You said 100 to 200 basis points in 2024. Are you assuming that, that's neutral to margins or slightly accretive to margins?
No, I think overall, maybe slightly positive, Nathan. I think when you look at the overall contribution of the margin, I think it's helpful to just have a look at holistic basis. On a holistic basis, it will be 50 to 75 pace improvement of the margin. It's going to come through a combination of price and volume, and frankly, some of the cost optimization initiatives just as far as continuous improvement are going to bake into that as well. So that will result in a pretty healthy fall through of 40%.
[Operator Instructions] We'll take our next question from Andrew Krill with Deutsche Bank.
I wanted to go back to the 1Q margin guide of 23% to 23.5%. And it just seems like a pretty big get down sequentially versus the around 25% in 4Q if we add back the Argentina number. I know you mentioned this isn't a very seasonal business and there's a little bit more corporate costs. But just anything else going on sequentially and maybe any help like by segment on margins?
Yes, Andrew, maybe I'll take that one. As you kind of look at the sequential margin specific to Q1, there are only 3 things at play. The first one is the ramp-up of the standalone company costs and the corporate costs. As you know, it's going to have the toughest year-over-year compare in Q1 for us, that's going to be an impact.
Even in Q4, we were pretty judicious in how we're going to bring in some of the costs related to the stand-alone company costs. So Q1 is where we're going to start seeing the full run rate. And as I said earlier, the second one is going to be on the select investments that we are making. I think as we kind of look at the opportunity landscape in both Water Quality and PQI, there's some select growth investments we want to make, that will impact. And the benefit of those investments should start flowing through the P&L in the second half of the year.
And lastly, I would say, just at the beginning of the year, water, as I said, is little slower to start given that Q4 is much stronger, and that's always going to have a margin decrement, right? So a combination of those 3 things is really kind of driving it. There's nothing major or materials otherwise impacting the margin. And overall, if we kind of again step back and look at the full year, we expect to deliver 50 to 75 basis points, and we feel pretty good about delivering that. So I think in the margin sometimes quarter-to-quarter, there can be some variance, but it's good to just step back and look at the full year.
Great. And then just a quick follow-up. I know in the intro comments and I think there's a lot of discussion on the innovation of new products for this year. Any way you can quantify how much of a benefit that might be in 2024? And is it more focused on one segment versus the other?
Yes. I think across the board, we generally see about 4% to 5% of sales spend on R&D and innovation. That has been the case through our history and we're carrying that forward as part of the model as well. I do think what we have as an independent stand-alone company, a more acute focus on where those dollars go in terms of really driving to investments that are high return and strategically compelling from the standpoint of solving customer problems. So you can think about that average as being spread evenly across both Water Quality and PQI.
[Operator Instructions] And it appears that we have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the program back over to our presenters for any additional or closing remarks.
Thanks, Shelby. This is Ryan Taylor. I just want to thank everybody for joining us on our fourth quarter and full year earnings call today. We appreciate your engagement and your support, and we look forward to talking to you next time. Thank you.
That concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.