Tempur Sealy International Inc

NYSE:TPX

Earnings Call Analysis

Company Projects Stable Sales and Tight Leverage

Amid global uncertainties, the company has achieved noteworthy financial maneuvers, including a $200 million debt reduction over nine months, leaving net debt at $2.5 billion, with a leverage ratio at 2.9. Third-quarter operating cash flow reached $230 million, contributing to the $2.5 billion over five years, underscoring a potent business model. The firm refinanced its credit facilities, enhancing financial flexibility without changing funding costs. Preparing for Mattress Firm's acquisition, share buybacks are paused and more debt repayment is expected. Post-acquisition leverage is projected between 3 to 3.25. Adjusted EPS for 2023 is guided at $2.30-$2.50, with anticipated U.S. industry volumes declining low double-digits, countering prior high single-digits expectations. Record advertising spend ($480 million) and a $20 million product launch support are included. The outlook assumes $200 million in CAPEX, planned growth initiatives, and a 10% dividend hike to $0.11 quarterly.

Optimistic Gross Margin Outlook and Debt Reduction

Despite commodity prices being significantly higher than 2020 levels, the company expects them to remain favorable for the rest of the year. Strategic agreements with global suppliers will be advantageous for long-term gross margins. Additionally, the company has successfully reduced its debt by $200 million during the first nine months, keeping the leverage ratio at a healthy 2.9 times, aligning with historical targets.

Revised Earnings and Investment in Growth

The company projects an adjusted EPS range of $2.30 to $2.50, reflecting global uncertainties and incorporating a $0.20 range. The guidance takes into account a downturn in U.S. industry volumes and consistent sales with the prior year. A substantial advertising spend of approximately $480 million is aimed at supporting leading brands and new products, which is expected to sustain adjusted EBITDA at around $885 million. Furthermore, a 10% dividend increase and a CAPEX of $200 million, with $90 million directed towards growth initiatives like the Crawfordsville facility, highlight the company's commitment to both shareholders and expansion.

Anticipating the Mattress Firm Acquisition

The acquisition of Mattress Firm is progressing as planned, with a closure expected between mid to late 2024. The company has secured multiple post-closing supply agreements, ensuring Mattress Firm will continue as a multi-branded retailer. This strategic move demonstrates the company's diligence in maintaining supplier relationships and addressing regulatory considerations.

International Growth and Operational Efficiencies

The company has focused on optimizing its operations after navigating a challenging environment filled with supply chain disruptions. With these issues now normalized, the company has begun to see improved margins, driven by operational efficiencies. International growth remains strong, with a reported 12% increase and high-end products gaining traction in various markets despite geopolitical challenges.

Outlook for 2024 Amidst Anticipated Headwinds

Acknowledging potential macroeconomic headwinds in 2024, the company remains positive, noting the industry's likely position of 'bouncing around the bottom' or a gradual recovery. Tempur Sealy expects to bolster its competitive edge by further taking market share and leveraging cost control measures, which should contribute to a steady EPS despite the overall market situation.

Market Share Gains and Investment in Advertising

The company is confident in its ability to continue capturing market share from competitors, due in part to its substantial investment in advertising and a focus on long-term strategies over short-term gains. This approach, including the decision not to reduce advertising expenses, positions the company well for ongoing market share acquisition and operational stability.

Remarkable Performance by Dreams and New Product Introduction

The UK-based Dreams team experienced sales growth during the quarter, indicating significant market share gains and efficient execution that met acquisition EBITDA targets. Despite a challenging market in the UK, the team is preparing to launch new Tempur products, anticipating continued success.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Tempur Sealy's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Aubrey Moore, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Aubrey Moore, executive]

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's call. Joining me today are Scott Thompson, Chairman, President and CEO; and Bhaskar Rao, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

This call includes forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve uncertainties and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors that could adversely affect the company's business. These factors are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including its annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it was made. The company undertakes no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. This morning's commentary will include non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial information can be found in the accompanying press release, which is posted on the company's investor website at investor.tempursealy.com and filed with the SEC. Our comments will supplement the detailed information provided in the press release.

And now with that introduction, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott.

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Thanks, Aubrey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our 2023 third quarter earnings call. I'll start by sharing some highlights from our third quarter performance, and then Bhaskar will review our financial performance in more detail. After that, I will provide an update on our proposed acquisition of Mattress Firm before opening up the call for Q&A.

Today, we are reporting the third best third quarter sales and EPS in the company's history. For the third quarter of 2023, we reported net sales of approximately $1.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.77. Our results are approximately consistent with the third quarter of last year despite a more challenging macroeconomic operating background.

The U.S. bedding industry as a whole underperformed our expectations with estimated volume down low double digits in the quarter. We mitigated the impact of the softer than expected U.S. market with solid company performance. It exceeded our expectations on both a relative market performance and year-over-year gross margin expansion. Internationally, the bedding industry and our operations performed in line with our expectations. Overall, despite down markets and the disruption of a major cybersecurity incident in the third quarter, our strong relative performance and cash flow generation demonstrate strong strength of our brands, operations and team. We believe Tempur Sealy is well positioned for continued success.

Turning to highlights for the quarter. First, our industry-leading brands and products continue to resonate with the U.S. consumer, driving our strong performance relative to the broader market. All of our new Tempur products and supporting advertising initiatives are strengthening Tempur's appeal to the premium, wellness-minded consumer. The incremental cooling and comfort innovation of our new lineup of Breeze mattresses generate robust retail advocacy and favorable mix in the quarter compared to the prior year. The lumbar feature, acoustic massage, the Wake Up and Wind Down technologies and our new Smart Base lineup continue to strengthen the value proposition of our adjustable offering, driving an improvement in attachment rates year-over-year.

These innovations drove a 5% increase in Tempur mattress and foundation ASP in the third quarter. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect to complete the full refresh of our U.S. Tempur portfolio by introducing our next generation of Adapt products. We expect strong returns on investments in our new products for years to come.

Over the quarter, we continued to support our new Tempur products and the long-term health of our Tempur brand with continued investments in national and digital Tempur-Pedic advertising. These marketing investments support very solid e-commerce performance and drove an increase in U.S. Tempur search interest year-over-year. Our strategic investment in product distribution and marketing also continued to drive strong performance and expand brand awareness of Stearns & Foster in the U.S. market.

We completed the rollout of our all-new Stearns & Foster mattress collection earlier this year. We continue to see these new products connecting with the premium traditional innerspring consumer, driving sales growth year-over-year. The consumer-centric innovation, elevated design and enhanced step-up opportunities are resonated with premium innerspring customers. We are thrilled that our high-end products are performing well and the ASP of Stearns & Foster product is up double digits from last year.

Additionally, Stearns & Foster search interest and e-commerce traffic were up 50% this year. Clearly, our multiyear strategy for Stearns & Foster is working well for us and our retailers.

Second highlight, our international operation is performing well and driving solid sales growth amid the current macro backdrop. We have successfully launched our new international Tempur lineup in over 90 markets worldwide, completing the rollout in nearly all the key markets in Europe and Asia. The launch is on track and will be substantially completed before the end of the year. The new products are being well received. Additionally, Dreams, our U.K. retail operation is also performing well in both sales, outperforming versus the broader market and has record customer satisfaction.

This quarter's performance demonstrates the strength of our international strategy and team highlighting the long-term opportunity for the international operations.

Third, we achieved significant consolidated gross margin expansion year-over-year and are compressing towards normalized margins. After multiple years of COVID overhanging, rapid inflation, macroeconomic disruption pressured margins worldwide, we're pleased to report 340 basis point improvement in consolidated adjusted gross margin year-over-year. Thanks to the successful management of commodity fluctuations, improved supplier contracts and operational improvements. This is a significant step towards driving profitability, which the team remains laser-focused on achieving.

The first driver of our gross margin improvement is our ability to pass on pricing to offset commodity inflation. As you may recall, we experienced approximately 400 basis points of margin compression between 2020 and 2022, as commodity prices increased at a historical pace. Now that pricing changes have been implemented, the commodity prices have started to normalize. You can see the positive results in our reported financial statements.

Additionally, we're optimistic that our scale in the market and our new product innovations will drive further gross margin expansion.

The second driver of gross margin improvement is operational efficiencies. In 2022, we invested approximately $80 million above normal operating levels to ensure we met our customers' needs during periods of supply chain disruptions. While these actions were critical to maintaining and strengthening our third-party retail relationships during the period of uncertainty that put significant pressure on our margins. Beginning in the back half of 2023, operations began to drive year-over-year improvements in supply contracts, labor productivity and logistic efficiencies.

As we look ahead, we'll remain focused on cost reductions and achieving our multiyear operational targets. Third driver to gross margin improvement is our brand and product mix. Our new Tempur and Stearns & Foster products are continuing to resonate with our premium consumers, driving momentum at the high end of the portfolio. We're also seeing a favorable mix benefit as premium consumers are less impacted by the current softness in market.

Lastly, our final highlight is the J.D. Power Award announcement we made this morning. Tempur-Pedic ranked the #1 in customer satisfaction with mattresses online in the J.D. Power 2023 report. We are thrilled to achieve this distinction for the third year in a row for our online mattress category and the fifth consecutive year of winning at least one of J.D. Power's awards.

Now I'll turn the call over to Bhaskar to review our financial statements in more detail.

[Bhaskar Rao, executive]

Thank you, Scott. In the third quarter of 2023, consolidated sales were approximately $1.3 billion, and adjusted earnings per share was $0.77. While these results were slightly below our expectations, we believe we continue to outperform our competitive set in a challenging market. We have approximately $32 million of pro forma adjustments in the quarter, all of which are consistent with the terms of our senior credit facility. These adjustments are primarily related to costs incurred in connection with the planned acquisition of Mattress Firm and the previously disclosed cyber event.

Turning to North American results. Net sales declined 3% in the third quarter. On a reported basis, the wholesale channel declined 4% and the direct channel declined 1%. North American adjusted gross margin improved a very robust 300 basis points to 43.2%, driven by favorable commodities and operational efficiencies, partially offset by deleverage.

North American adjusted operating margin improved 50 bps to 20.3% driven by improvement in gross margins, partially offset by investments in growth initiatives.

Now turning to International. International net sales increased a very solid 12% on a reported basis and 7% on a constant currency basis. As compared to the prior year, our International gross margin improved a robust 320 basis points to 56.6%, driven by commodities, mix and favorable leverage. Our International adjusted operating margin improved 150 basis points to 16.2%, driven by improvements in gross margin, partially offset by investments.

Global commodity prices continue to trend largely in line with our expectations. We continue to expect favorable commodity prices for the remainder of the year, though remaining significantly elevated from 2020 levels. In addition to the benefit of favorable commodity markets, we have signed multiple agreements with certain global suppliers who have recognized our scale momentum. These relationships will benefit our gross margins over the long term.

Now moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow items. We have paid down approximately $200 million of debt over the first 9 months of this year. At the end of the third quarter, consolidated net debt was $2.5 billion, and our leverage ratio under our credit facility was 2.9x, within our historical target range of 2 to 3x. We generated third quarter operating cash flow of approximately $230 million. In the last 5 years, the company has realized over $2.5 billion in operating cash flow, proving the business model and providing financial flexibility.

I'm pleased to highlight that over the last few weeks, we have successfully refinanced our credit facilities. With this refinancing, we have meaningfully extended our debt maturities, improved our financial flexibility and increased our potential total senior credit funding, all while maintaining our current cost of funds in what is clearly a tight commercial banking market.

As we previously reported, under the terms of our purchase agreement with Mattress Firm, we have temporarily suspended repurchases under our share repurchase authorization as we work towards the closing of the transaction. Over this interim period between sign and close, we expect to significantly deleverage as we plan to use cash to pay down debt. After the acquisition closes, we anticipate our leverage ratio to be between 3 and 3.25x.

Now turning to 2023 guidance. We now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.30 and $2.50. We have maintained a $0.20 range, which reflects the global uncertainty. The midpoint of our revised annual guidance is based on sales consistent with prior year. This includes our updated expectation that the U.S. industry volumes will be down low double digits year-over-year versus our prior expectation of high single digits and the execution of our key initiatives, new product launches and the wraparound impact of pricing.

Sales and marketing investments of $20 million to support product launches, and record advertising spend of approximately $480 million as we continue to support our leading brands and new products. All this results in adjusted EBITDA for the year of approximately $885 million at the midpoint of the range, consistent with prior year.

I should point out the adjusted EPS range reflects foreign exchange rates that are unfavorable versus our previous expectations. Our current outlook for 2023 now contemplates an FX headwind, indicating our fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EPS has been reduced $0.04 versus our previous expectations.

Our guidance also considers the following allocations of capital: a quarterly dividend of $0.11, representing a 10% increase relative to 2022 and CapEx of approximately $200 million, which includes $90 million of growth, primarily to fund the completion of our Crawfordsville facility. Going forward, we would expect our CapEx to return to a more normalized level of spend. We think of annualized CapEx as approximately $150 million driven by maintenance spend of $110 million and gross spend of approximately $40 million.

Lastly, I would like to flag a few modeling items. For the full year 2023, we expect D&A of approximately $185 million to $190 million, interest expense of about $130 million on a tax rate of 25% and a diluted share count of 177.5 million shares.

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Thanks. Nice job, Bhaskar. Before opening up the call for questions, let me provide a brief update on our pending acquisition of Mattress Firm. Consistent with our expectations, we are currently responding to the Federal Trade Commission's robust second request, which we expect to complete in the fourth quarter of 2023. We continue to expect the transactions to close in mid to late 2024.

We continue to work closely with Mattress Firm's leadership team. We received high-level updates on numerous topics, including their financial performance. Mattress Firm has an October 3 fiscal year-end and will report their fiscal results when their audit is complete, most likely in early December. Their preliminary results are in line with our expectations.

Finally, I'm pleased to share that Tempur Sealy and Mattress Firm continue to make joint progress in planning for post closing, including solidifying key supplier relations ahead of the expected close. Since announcing the acquisition in May, Tempur Sealy has signed numerous plus closing supply agreements with existing Mattress Firm suppliers and one supply agreement for the company not currently supplying Mattress Firm. These contracts are consistent with our expectation for Mattress Firm to continue as a multi-branded retailer post closing. A few additional discussions regarding supplier relations are ongoing.

In summary, our progress towards the transaction close is on track, and we look forward to joining with the Mattress Firm team. And with that, I'll open up the call for questions. Operator?

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

[Susan Maklari, analyst]

Why don't we start by talking a bit about the demand environment. I think that obviously, things felt a little softer in the quarter than maybe some had anticipated. And appreciating the color you gave in your comments, but can you talk a bit more about how things trended during the quarter? Any sort of -- anything of note in there? And how you're thinking about the business as we progress through the balance of this year?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Sure. Thank you for your question, Susan. I mean, first of all, let's not overlook that the International team had good solid growth in the quarter. And I think your question is really more directed towards North America. And then to kind of streamline your question even further, our Mexico operations had a great quarter, and Canada was solid. So kind of ratcheted down our largest market, which is where your question is really focused is the U.S. market.

As far as how the quarter progressed, the same trends that I think we talked about probably in the second quarter we saw in the third quarter, which is in non-holiday periods, the troughs have gotten deeper. And then during holiday periods, we're seeing growth in the market. But the holiday periods haven't been strong enough to offset the trough. So that would be the -- we'll call that in-quarter kind of trend. That's the same trend that we would expect in the fourth quarter. It continues to be what I'd call the normalization of the seasonality that the business used to incur before COVID with maybe slightly deeper troughs and slightly higher peaks during the holiday period.

I think you also kind of asked in general, just like demand. I mean, I think as you well know, the industry has been from a unit standpoint, has been in decline for 9 quarters, making it where we currently are sitting at great recession kind of volumes in the industry that we're working through and ensure some of that has to do with slowdown in the general economy, and we're talking U.S. here in wallet shift. There's probably some minor pullback or pull forward from COVID, although we've never really thought that, that was a big number. I think the biggest thing that the industry is working through is really advertising. And as you know, we've got a lot of smart people and a lot of analytics that go on and look at advertising, both ours and the effectiveness of it, what goes on in the industry and looking at it as we try to understand why the industry is having such a tough slug compared to historical volumes and we're off our trend lines.

If you look at it, manufacturer advertising over the last 3 years is down 40%. And if you look at the retailers, their advertising is down 20%. And yes, that's an issue. But I think probably a bigger issue is when you dive into that reduced advertising and you look at the mix of what people are doing both from a manufacturing standpoint and a retailer standpoint, they've moved from top-of-funnel advertising over the last 3 years to the bottom of the funnel. The manufacturers have moved about 40% of their advertising from the top of the funnel to the bottom, and retailers have also moved probably 40% to 40% plus of their advertising from the top of the funnel to the bottom of the funnel.

So what does that mean? That means we're not putting enough customers in the funnel, triggering their thinking about mattresses and we're all kind of fighting for the few customers that happen to trip into the funnel is what's going on in the industry. If you play with the math, that means total top funnel advertising for manufacturers is down 64%. When you include the decline in advertising plus the mix change, and for retailers, it's down 44%. That is an enormous amount of advertising dollars taken off the top of the funnel. And I think that's the big problem in traffic. I think that's actually the bigger issue than share of wallet and other things that people like to talk about.

Now from our standpoint, we continue to support the industry as a manufacturer in our advertising expense we've not cut. So with us not cutting, you can see the other manufacturers are clearly not helping pull the funnel forward. We have moved some to the bottom of the funnel, and we're looking at that. And what we're doing to help kind of get the industry back on track is we're working with other retailers and major retailers walking them through some of this analysis, talking to them about it and it's resonating with them. And some of the large retailers are relooking at their advertising mix and dollar amount.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler.

[Peter Keith, analyst]

So really nice gross margin expansion. I think the surprise to me and I think from others was the growth in SG&A. And you did reference that you're making some growth investments. So could you unpack a little bit what changed with Q3? Is there anything to accelerate? And maybe detail what some of these growth investments are?

[Bhaskar Rao, executive]

Absolutely. So one of the important things that Scott mentioned is that we want to continue to support our brands and products. So we continue to advertise and what we believe is that, that advertising is showing itself in that we continue to outperform the market and capture share. So a piece of that is going to be advertising. What I would further say is that we remain very positive and constructive on our own doors, specifically our Tempur retail store strategy.

And as you can imagine, those are very unique type of shopping experiences that have unique locations, very long tail on those. We've identified those opportunities. So as you think about the investments in those stores, that's what's flowing through selling and marketing as well. Outside of that and as we think about those things, those things are going to continue to pay dividends as you think about growth in the out years. We are going to invest in future growth.

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Yes. I mean that's consistent with what we said. We did not pull back what I'd call short-term things to worry about quarter's earnings. When we look at the market share gains we're getting and what we're doing as far as strengthening our competitive position, we felt like those investments, we should continue to make them. And they're advertising and there are some new stores at Tempur and those take some start-up costs and stuff. But we stayed on track with our growth plan.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James.

[Robert Griffin, analyst]

Bhaskar, clearly, a very dynamic market here. I'm not asking really for 2024 guidance. We'll all make our own predictions. But when you look at this year and you kind of look out played out, can you maybe highlight a few of the aspects that might not repeat from a cost standpoint in 2024 that we should keep in mind? And then on the other side, is there things coming in 2024 that we should also model in that maybe didn't occur this year from a product investment standpoint or anything about that just to help us think about the flow in and flow out of costs and expenses next year?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Sure. I'll start, and then Bhaskar will probably enhance it and clean it up. I think the one thing that jumps to mind and it's really a highlight for the quarter is the operational efficiencies that we're beginning to flow through the financial statements. Look, the last few years, we're really a mess in operations because of supply chain issues, commodity changes, an AX conversion, staffing issues. I mean, look, the operating team has done a great job in a very tough operating environment. Well, all that's kind of normalized. And we're back to focusing like we used to do historically on driving efficiencies. We're getting back on our metrics. And this is really the first quarter that you're beginning to see that in the margins.

So that's an internal issue, and I'm optimistic that you're going to continue to see that in 2024. I think you can also see one of the big highlights is the International sales group. As we've talked about this [ cube ] project, which again took a lot of energy from operations and got them not off focus from an efficiency standpoint. We're through that project. So I'm expecting some operating efficiencies internationally, plus the product is resonating in the marketplace.

I think it was like a 12% growth, give or take, Bhaskar, for the international group. And think about that. This is a high-end product in the international market at a time of geopolitical complications, we'll call it. So we're thrilled. This is higher ASP product and it's resonating. We'd expect to get leverage in the international operation from sales. Bhaskar, what are they just off the top of your head?

[Bhaskar Rao, executive]

I think all those are the right way to think about it, a number of growth initiatives to drive the top line and then the operations or from a gross margin standpoint, we should see those tailwinds continue.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America.

[Jason Haas, analyst]

Scott, in light of your comments to a previous question, I'm curious if you could say what you think is needed for the industry to get back to more normalized unit levels? Do you think we need to see a pickup in industry advertising? Do we need to see more housing turnover? Is it just going to take time? What do you think is key to get there?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Yes. I think we all fell in love with low funnel advertising and some others pulled back on their advertising hoping to draft on other people. I think the betting is an industry that you have to trigger the customer to think about. People don't wake up 1 day and say let's go buy a bunch of beds. And the industry is very successful when it advertises. And so I think it's primarily a lack of advertising by people and probably a mix -- a little bit of a mix fine-tuning.

I think I would also point to, if you look at what Tempur Sealy has done. I mean, look, it's not any secret. We've gathered a lot of market share. And you see that in our Stearns & Foster product where we've done higher than historical advertising dollars in there. So we've proven that advertising works. Yes, the product is great. Sales team is great. But you got to have the advertising in there. And so, yes, I think advertising is the key. You'll hear retailers talk about traffic. And that is the issue, and everybody needs to get back to working a little bit on the top funnel and getting people in the funnel rather than waiting to try the last minute, grab them off their purchase journey at the end. Things like manufacturers slot -- bind slots or doing spiffs. Those kind of dollar investments are all just fighting over the customers in the marketplace and aren't productive. And they really aren't something that Tempur Sealy has done. We've had some other manufacturers try to work that angle.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

[Seth Basham, analyst]

I was hoping for a little bit more color around the supply agreements you were talking about. So the new supply agreements that you're signing with existing suppliers or even one new supplier you mentioned, are these beneficial to you because of the proposed acquisition of Mattress Firm? Or are those independent? And how should we think about the benefits to gross margin from these into 2024?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Yes. Let me talk about those. I mean we're buying Mattress Firm. It has other suppliers, and we decided it would be advantageous to go ahead and sign some post-merger supply agreements with those suppliers. Why did we think that? One is some of these suppliers, Mattress Firm is their largest customer, and it creates an uncertainty in their minds. Some of them need to refinance their debt. Some of them just need to figure out their staffing. Some of these products have long lead times. And so in order to have a stable market, it seemed appropriate to go ahead and both parties come together, make sure we have a medium in the minds and contractually arrange what that looks like. So it's good for them. It's also good for us because it gives us certainty that we're not going to have any supply disruptions.

And with the contracts we've signed, we've got enough non-Tempur Sealy suppliers to have a multi-branded mattress firm floor and service our customers. It also gives the Mattress Firm folks the RSA's comfort that they're going to have some of the non-Tempur Sealy products that they love to market. It also is friendly from an FTC standpoint. To the extent if the FTC has concerns, that suppliers are going to get shut out. It's not consistent with our business plan, overseas at Dreams or anywhere else. It's not our business plan here. But we've got contracts also we put in place to demonstrate that our business plan is being executed.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

[Bradley Thomas, analyst]

Scott, I was hoping I could get a little bit of your kind of first blush and how you're thinking about the industry as you look out to 2024. Obviously, some of the leading indicators of the health of the consumer, like ramping student loan payments could be a headwind. Obviously, interest rates are going higher. Housing has been slower. So curious your early take on 2024. And if the industry stays challenged, can you help us think about how Tempur might change strategy, if at all, in that kind of environment?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Sure. Look, and we certainly see and agree that there are some headwinds in 2024 and don't want to underestimate those or let you think we've got our head in the sand. Those are all good points of why the macro should be some headwinds in there. But if you look at the industry, we're already so far on the bottom from historical standpoints. That I think that we -- we probably are in good shape. I think some of this is self-inflicted from our execution from an industry standpoint on advertising. So I've used the term bouncing around the bottom. Probably the industry took a little bit of a step down, probably bounced a little further down in the bottom. But I think you either get in 2024 bouncing around the bottom or you get this slow recovery that we've been looking for in the industry.

What does that mean for Tempur Sealy? I see nothing going on in the marketplace that would make me think that we would not continue to take market share. And so without -- I don't know what 2024 looks like yet, we haven't finished our budgeting. But I think even if it's a -- we'll call it a softer overall market, I think our market share gains will help offset issues there. And then as I mentioned earlier on the call, we've got some internal issues that we're in control of from a cost standpoint that I think gives us some optimism as to, we'll call it, EPS when you get down there. Top line is going to be a little more volatile to look at. But I think we feel relatively comfortable going into 2024 with more details coming when it's appropriate.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Atul Maheswari with UBS.

[Atul Maheswari, analyst]

Scott, a question that we keep getting from investors who are taking a fresh look at the TPX story, is that who is TPX gaining all the share from and why is it gaining share? So really a 2-part question. Can you provide some color on the who and then on the why, how is the product and marketing strategy of TPX different? And then related to that, Scott, where is the incremental opportunity to continue to gain share given your already robust share position in the U.S.? And then what is the risk that some of your competitors might ultimately catch up the ones who have been disrupted?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Sure. Good detailed question. First of all, I don't want to get the International market. So first of all, just internationally, taking a large amount of share, obviously, with what we reported this quarter. Lots of competition there. So we're not going to talk about it because it takes us all day to go through each country. So I think your question really is more pointed towards the U.S., okay? So I'm going to focus on the U.S., but let's not forget, internationally, we're taking a good bit of share all around the world.

So when you go to the U.S., I apologize for a second, I think this is I think we're taking share from everybody. I think there might be a smaller player somewhere in the group. But I think we think the industry was down, call it, low double digits. I think that's not far off what our friends over at Leggett. I think as others report their numbers, we can kind of solidify and perfect that number. And so if you'd call the industry, let's just call it down 10% for talking terms.

And in the U.S., Bhaskar, we were down like 1 or 2?

[Bhaskar Rao, executive]

Give or take 3.

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Something like that. So if you play with the numbers, that means that other competitors had a really tough time. When I sit on sales calls, I don't hear another competitor taking share from us. So I'm going to say we're taking a little bit of share from probably most everybody. At some point, and I've said this in the past, the share gains probably will reduce as a percentage because our base is bigger and their base is smaller. But by then, I would expect that the industry also is probably in recovery. But no, I think there's still further share gains. We've got some stuff in the works and I would expect from what I've seen 2024 that we would take share in the U.S. and certainly take share internationally.

When you kind of asked about how are we doing it and what's our secret sauce? I mean, look, it's not too big a secret. It's -- we put the money in the beds with great product. We don't cut corners. We don't optimize to the detriment of our retailers or to our customers and our product. We invest in our people, and our sales force has been very stable and productive and our marketing departments and our staff have been very stable. We invest in people in good times and bad times.

We believe in advertising, it drives the industry. And we've been advertising significantly and will continue to advertise. And we make what I think at times are the long-term decision over the short-term decision. In this quarter, there were some decisions that we made during the quarter that I think will pay dividends to us in 2024. And we don't have discussions about optimizing quarters. We have discussions about optimizing our competitive position. So hopefully, that's helpful.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist.

[Keith Hughes, analyst]

I had a question on International. Amongst that 7% organic growth, can you talk about how Dreams bed versus [ that ]? And we're starting to feel the influence of the new product launches. Is there enough out there to be affecting the numbers.

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Yes. Thank you for that direct question because it's actually a great story. As you may know, the U.K. market is really tough. I mean the U.K. market from a retail standpoint for durable good and home is a very tough market, maybe one of the toughest that we're experiencing around the world. And the Dreams team has done a fabulous job. They actually had growth in sales in the quarter, which is what I just told you, should indicate they had significant market share gains. They continue to be able to hit their acquisition, EBITDA budget and the team has done it with outstanding execution.

So on the product standpoint, there's new products coming to the U.K. They actually do not have the new Tempur product really the only major market that doesn't have it because there's some special fire requirements in the U.K. So it takes a little -- they are always last on it. So they'll actually start gearing up in the first part of next year for what I'll call the new Tempur beds. They've got some other new product coming. They make a good bit of their own product, their own plant. But they're still dealing with a tough market, but boy, they have really done which from a Harvard business study, you would want people to do, which is in a tough market. Really solidify their competitive position.

[Bhaskar Rao, executive]

And outside of Dreams, the new product is resonating with the consumer, and we saw nice growth outside of Dreams as well in a very tough market.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital.

[Laura Champine, analyst]

I appreciate the commentary that Mattress Firms met your internal expectations, but not being privy to those. Can you just give us a sense of how they're tracking versus the industry, which I think you commented that Tempur believes the mattress industry was down low double digits in the quarter?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Yes. Let me put some words around it, but I appreciate that I'm also trying to respect my future partners. But look, I think I would say -- I guess, I could say these words. Mattress Firm has -- the industry has been worse than we expected. That's very clear from our previous comment. And Mattress Firm actually has performed better than we would have expected in this particular U.S. economy. I think that probably helps reconcile you to what you're trying to work on. But no, they've done well. We'll let them report. And we're certainly thrilled to have them join the company.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Carla Casella with JPMorgan.

[Carla Casella, analyst]

You commented on commodities and how they're improving or normalizing a bit, but there are still some that are well above the pandemic. Can you just break it down a little bit in terms of what some of the key commodities that you're seeing?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Absolutely. So the way I think about that is just from a framing standpoint is that we indicated historically that we've been able to cover the cost of the commodity inflation through taking price. However, from a mathematical standpoint, that created a margin, meaning the math issue, approximately 400 basis point.

So sitting here today, we think we're -- there's still about half of that to go. The way I think about from a commodity overall standpoint, is really puts and takes. Everything is definitely off its peaks and whether that be chemicals, lumber, steel, et cetera. However, if you look at where we started this journey, there's still a way to go. However, commodities in and of itself is not the story is that there's also another component of that story, which is we continue to work with our suppliers, our major suppliers to make sure that they understand the potential from a company standpoint and the momentum that we have.

So yes, we've seen some tailwinds from commodities over the last couple of bits. However, what we've also done is that we've entered into very constructive win-win contracts and relationships with our existing suppliers to ensure that the gift keeps on giving, not only from a commodity standpoint, but as a relationship, a strategic relationship to see benefits from an EBITDA standpoint.

[Operator]

Next question comes from the line of William Reuter with Bank of America.

[William Reuter, analyst]

There's clearly a little bit of concern about lower income and middle income customers that may be experiencing increasing debt levels. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how your sales breakdown between different demographics? And if you're seeing some of those trends start to impact your results?

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Sure. Consistent with the last few quarters, there's no question that the entry-level customer is challenged. We have the higher end products are doing well and growing, call it Stearns & Foster and Tempur and especially high-end Tempur. And where you see real pressure, again, we're talking U.S. is in the entry-level customer, which would be our entry-level Sealy product, Sealy Posturepedic big markets doing better. But we would share that, that the entry-level customer is really not active in the current market.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.

[Seth Basham, analyst]

I just have a follow-up. You guys talked about being on track to respond to this quarter. Is that timing at all longer than previously expected? I thought you'd be done with responding to that by now.

[Scott Thompson, executive]

I would say, look, it's a complicated process, obviously. I think we have provided the government with over 1 million documents, just to be clear. We've always said that we would be substantially complete in the fourth quarter. We're off probably maybe 2, 3 weeks probably from the original time line at the very start.

[Operator]

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to hand the conference back to Mr. Scott Thompson for closing remarks.

[Scott Thompson, executive]

Thank you, operator. To our over 12,000 employees around the world, thank you for what you do every day to make the company successful. To our retail partners, thank you for your outstanding representation of our brands, to our shareholders and lenders, thank you for your confidence in leadership -- in the leadership of the company and its Board. This ends today's call, operator. Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.