Tencent Music Entertainment Group
NYSE:TME
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TME stock under the Base Case scenario is 11.63 USD. Compared to the current market price of 11.53 USD, Tencent Music Entertainment Group is Undervalued by 1%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
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Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) stands as a titan in the digital music landscape, merging innovation with a vast audience reach in China. As a subsidiary of Tencent, one of the world's leading technology conglomerates, TME operates several popular platforms, including QQ Music, Kugou, and Kuwo. These platforms cater to a broad base of music lovers, providing streaming services, music downloads, and social features that allow users to engage with their favorite artists and songs. TME's robust growth is fueled not only by its impressive user base—over 800 million registered users—but also by strategic partnerships and a diverse revenue model that includes subscription services, online...
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) stands as a titan in the digital music landscape, merging innovation with a vast audience reach in China. As a subsidiary of Tencent, one of the world's leading technology conglomerates, TME operates several popular platforms, including QQ Music, Kugou, and Kuwo. These platforms cater to a broad base of music lovers, providing streaming services, music downloads, and social features that allow users to engage with their favorite artists and songs. TME's robust growth is fueled not only by its impressive user base—over 800 million registered users—but also by strategic partnerships and a diverse revenue model that includes subscription services, online karaoke, and live streaming events. This capability to blend entertainment with technology positions TME uniquely in a rapidly evolving industry.
For investors, TME presents a compelling opportunity with its leading market presence in China's music industry, buoyed by the increasing consumption of digital content and the rise of mobile internet usage. The company has effectively capitalized on the burgeoning demand for premium audio experiences, achieving a steady uptick in paying subscribers, which enhances its profitability. Furthermore, TME's active engagement in artist management and partnerships with global music labels fortifies its content library, ensuring a rich and varied catalog that appeals to users. As the digital music market continues to expand, TME stands poised to capitalize on emerging trends, making it an attractive prospect for those looking to invest in the intersection of technology and entertainment.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is a leading online music and audio entertainment platform in China. Its core business segments can be broadly categorized into the following areas:
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Music Streaming Services:
- TME operates several music streaming platforms, the most prominent being QQ Music, Kugou, and Kuwo. These platforms offer a vast library of songs, playlists, and personalized music recommendations. They typically operate on a freemium model, providing both free access supported by ads and premium paid subscriptions with enhanced features.
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Social Entertainment:
- This segment includes the integration of music with social features, enabling users to interact with each other through musical content. TME offers functionalities such as karaoke, music sharing, and social networking within its apps, which enhances user engagement and retention.
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Live Streaming and Concerts:
- TME also provides live streaming services where artists can perform concerts and engage with fans in real-time. This segment has gained traction, especially during events like the pandemic, as artists sought new ways to connect with their audience.
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Music Publishing and Distribution:
- The company is involved in the licensing and distribution of music, managing the rights of a wide range of artists and music labels. This segment is crucial for generating revenue from music royalties and licensing fees.
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Advertising Services:
- TME offers advertising solutions to brands and companies, leveraging its extensive user base and data analytics capabilities. This includes in-app advertisements and promotional campaigns tailored to users' music preferences.
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Artist Services and Development:
- The company is involved in the discovery and development of new talent, offering resources and support for artists to help them grow their careers. This includes marketing support, data insights, and promotional activities.
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Partnerships and Collaborations:
- TME actively seeks partnerships with various entities, including gaming companies and other entertainment platforms, to create cross-promotional opportunities and enhance user experiences.
These segments collectively contribute to Tencent Music's strong position in the Chinese digital music market, allowing it to leverage its user base and technology to drive growth and revenue.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) possesses several competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the music streaming industry. Here are some of the key advantages:
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Strong Parent Company Support: As a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings, TME benefits from the extensive resources, technological capabilities, and financial backing of one of China's largest tech conglomerates. This relationship helps TME leverage cross-platform integration opportunities with Tencent's various services, such as WeChat and QQ.
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Extensive User Base: TME has a massive active user base due to its integration with popular Tencent platforms. This gives it access to a large audience for user acquisition and monetization opportunities, which is critical in the streaming market.
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Diverse Revenue Streams: TME has a multifaceted revenue model, including online music subscriptions, digital album sales, and live streaming services. This diversification can provide more resilience against market fluctuations compared to competitors that focus primarily on subscription revenue.
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Exclusive Licensing Agreements: TME has secured exclusive licenses with numerous domestic and international music labels, artists, and content providers. This helps it offer unique content that competitors may not, thereby attracting and retaining users.
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Innovative Features and Services: TME consistently develops new features, such as karaoke offerings, live streaming, and interactive social features, that enhance user engagement and differentiation from competitors. The ability to provide a more immersive and interactive experience is a significant competitive edge.
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Data Analytics and User Insights: TME leverages advanced data analytics capabilities to understand user preferences and behavior. This information can inform content curation, targeted marketing strategies, and personalized user experiences, which enhance customer satisfaction and retention.
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Strategic Partnerships: TME has formed collaborations with various stakeholders, including artists, music labels, and event organizers. These partnerships not only enrich its content library but also provide opportunities for unique promotional events and collaborations that competitors may not access.
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Brand Positioning and Market Penetration: TME has established itself as a leading music platform in China, making it a go-to option for users. Its strong brand recognition and local expertise give it an advantage over foreign competitors trying to penetrate the Chinese market.
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Regulatory Compliance and Local Insights: TME's local status and understanding of the Chinese regulatory landscape allow it to navigate the complexities of operating in China more effectively than many international competitors.
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Strong Community Engagement and User Interaction: TME fosters a sense of community through its social features, allowing users to connect over music. This engagement can create a more loyal user base compared to platforms that do not prioritize social interactions.
By capitalizing on these competitive advantages, Tencent Music Entertainment Group can maintain its leadership position in the highly competitive music streaming industry in China and beyond.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) operates in a rapidly evolving landscape, marked by various risks and challenges. Here are some key areas to consider:
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Regulatory Challenges:
- Government Policies: Changes in regulations regarding music licensing, royalties, and content can impact TME's operations. The Chinese government's increased scrutiny of the tech sector may impose additional compliance requirements.
- Copyright Issues: Ongoing disputes related to intellectual property rights could lead to legal challenges, affecting the availability of content on their platforms.
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Intense Competition:
- The digital music streaming market in China faces fierce competition from both local and international players, such as Alibaba Music, NetEase Cloud Music, and Western services like Spotify. This competition can lead to price wars and reduced market share.
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User Growth Saturation:
- With significant market penetration in China, TME may find it challenging to sustain high user growth rates. As the user base matures, acquiring new paying subscribers will become more difficult and costly.
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Adoption of Free Models:
- Users may prefer free or ad-supported models over premium subscriptions, which can limit TME's revenue potential. Transitioning users from free to paid services may present challenges.
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Technological Disruptions:
- The music streaming industry is subject to rapid technological changes. TME must continuously innovate to keep pace, incorporating new features like AI, machine learning, or enhanced personalization to improve user engagement.
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International Expansion Issues:
- While TME has potential for international growth, entering new markets poses challenges related to local content, user preferences, and compliance with different regulations in various countries.
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Monetization Challenges:
- Finding new revenue sources, especially in a market that may become saturated with streaming services, is crucial. TME needs to explore diversification in revenue streams, such as live events, merchandise, or exclusive content.
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Changing Consumer Preferences:
- Evolving music consumption habits, including shifts towards short-form video platforms (like Douyin/TikTok) or social media, could impact user engagement with traditional music streaming services.
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Economic Factors:
- Broader economic conditions, such as recession or shifts in disposable income, can affect consumer spending on entertainment services, including music subscriptions.
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Data Privacy Concerns:
- Increasing focus on data protection and privacy regulations can create compliance burdens. Companies must ensure that they handle user data responsibly, which can also affect user trust and engagement.
Addressing these challenges requires TME to remain agile, invest in technology and data analytics, and explore partnerships or acquisitions that can enhance their service offerings and market position.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
Current Assets | 29.9B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 10B |
Receivables | 2.9B |
Other Current Assets | 17B |
Non-Current Assets | 45.6B |
Long-Term Investments | 11.1B |
PP&E | 3.3B |
Intangibles | 21.6B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 9.6B |
Current Liabilities | 12B |
Accounts Payable | 5B |
Other Current Liabilities | 7B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 7.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 5.9B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.7B |
Earnings Waterfall
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
Revenue
|
27.8B
CNY
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Cost of Revenue
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-16.4B
CNY
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Gross Profit
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11.4B
CNY
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Operating Expenses
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-4.8B
CNY
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Operating Income
|
6.6B
CNY
|
Other Expenses
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-652m
CNY
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Net Income
|
6B
CNY
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
CNY | |
Free Cash Flow | CNY |
In Q3 2024, Tencent Music Entertainment reported a 7% year-over-year revenue increase to RMB 7 billion, driven by a 20% rise in online music revenue. The company achieved a remarkable net profit growth of 35% to RMB 1.7 billion, with its SVIP membership surpassing 10 million. The average revenue per user (ARPU) also grew by 5% to RMB 10.8. Looking ahead, management expects steady growth driven by increased subscribers and a focus on operational efficiencies, projecting continued improvements in profit margins. Overall, the company maintains an optimistic outlook for 2025, emphasizing long-term growth potential.
What is Earnings Call?
TME Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Tencent Music Entertainment Group's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Tencent Music Entertainment Group's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TME Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Tencent Music Entertainment Group's solvency score is 66/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Tencent Music Entertainment Group's solvency score is 66/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TME Price Targets Summary
Tencent Music Entertainment Group
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TME is 14.39 USD with a low forecast of 9.14 USD and a high forecast of 17.43 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TME is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Description
Tencent Music Entertainment Group engages in the operation of an online music entertainment platform. The company is headquartered in Shenzhen, Guangdong. The company went IPO on 2018-12-12. The firm's platform comprises online music, online karaoke and music-centric live streaming services, supported by content offerings, technology and data. The firm's main platform includes QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, WeSing, Kugou Live, Kuwo Live and others.
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The intrinsic value of one TME stock under the Base Case scenario is 11.63 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 11.53 USD, Tencent Music Entertainment Group is Undervalued by 1%.