Target Corp
NYSE:TGT
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TGT stock under the Base Case scenario is 170.329 USD. Compared to the current market price of 124.355 USD, Target Corp is Undervalued by 27%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Target Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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Target Corporation, one of the largest general merchandise retailers in the United States, stands out not only for its vast selection of products but also for its commitment to quality and customer experience. Founded in 1902, Target has evolved from a single-store venture in Minnesota to a nationwide phenomenon with over 1,900 locations. The company has adeptly positioned itself in the retail landscape by emphasizing its unique branding, affordability, and innovation. Investors have been drawn to Target's ability to successfully adapt to changing market dynamics, embracing e-commerce while continuing to enhance its brick-and-mortar presence with well-designed, inviting store layouts that at...
Target Corporation, one of the largest general merchandise retailers in the United States, stands out not only for its vast selection of products but also for its commitment to quality and customer experience. Founded in 1902, Target has evolved from a single-store venture in Minnesota to a nationwide phenomenon with over 1,900 locations. The company has adeptly positioned itself in the retail landscape by emphasizing its unique branding, affordability, and innovation. Investors have been drawn to Target's ability to successfully adapt to changing market dynamics, embracing e-commerce while continuing to enhance its brick-and-mortar presence with well-designed, inviting store layouts that attract consumers looking for convenience and a pleasant shopping experience.
In recent years, Target has shown impressive resilience and growth, particularly in the face of evolving consumer habits. With its emphasis on digital transformation, including a seamless omnichannel shopping experience, the company has capitalized on the surge in online shopping, significantly boosting its e-commerce sales. Target's business model is not just about pushing products but also building a loyal customer base through exceptional service, exclusive brand partnerships, and community engagement. These strategic initiatives position Target as a formidable player in the retail sector, with a promise of steady revenue growth and shareholder value. For investors, Target presents a compelling opportunity, blending a strong historical performance with a forward-looking approach that keeps it relevant in an increasingly competitive market.
Target Corporation operates through several core business segments that collectively contribute to its overall strategy and financial performance. The primary segments include:
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Merchandising: This is the largest segment of Target’s business, encompassing a wide array of products across various categories:
- Apparel and Accessories: Clothing, shoes, and accessories for all age groups, including exclusive brands.
- Home Goods: Furniture, decor, kitchenware, and bedding.
- Electronics: TVs, computers, and consumer electronics.
- Health and Beauty Products: Personal care items, cosmetics, and over-the-counter medications.
- Grocery and Consumables: Food and beverages, household essentials, and pet products.
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Food and Grocery: A significant and growing part of Target's business. This segment includes:
- Fresh produce, dairy, meat, frozen foods, and packaged goods.
- A focus on convenience and ready-to-eat meal solutions.
- Partnerships with local and national brands to enhance product offerings.
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Target.com and Digital Sales: E-commerce has become an essential channel for Target, especially with the rise in online shopping. This segment includes:
- Direct-to-consumer sales through the Target website and app.
- Services like same-day delivery and curbside pickup.
- Integration of online and in-store experiences.
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Private Label Brands: Target has developed a range of private label brands, which contribute significantly to its profitability. Some well-known brands include:
- Good & Gather: Food and beverage products.
- Cat & Jack: Children’s apparel.
- Threshold: Home goods and decor.
- Up & Up: Household essentials and personal care items.
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Store Formats: Target operates various store formats to cater to different markets, including:
- Full-size Target Stores: Traditional larger stores with a wide range of product offerings.
- Small-format Stores: Located in urban and dense suburban areas to meet local demand.
- SuperTarget: A larger format that includes a full-size grocery department.
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Financial Services: Though not a primary revenue driver, Target offers financial services such as the Target REDcard, which provides customers with discounts and rewards.
Overall, Target Corp. employs a multi-channel retail strategy that integrates physical stores and online platforms to enhance customer shopping experiences while offering a diverse product range aimed at various consumer needs. This approach not only drives sales but also fosters customer loyalty and aligns with the company's commitment to quality and value.
Target Corp has several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the retail space:
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Strong Brand Identity: Target's branding, often associated with quality and affordability, appeals to a wide range of consumers. The company's emphasis on stylish designs and exclusive product lines helps it maintain a distinctive image compared to competitors like Walmart and Costco.
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Private Label Offerings: Target has developed a robust portfolio of private label brands (e.g., Good & Gather, Cat & Jack) that offer customers high-quality products at competitive prices. This helps improve margins and increase customer loyalty.
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Customer Experience and Store Layout: Target invests significantly in creating an enjoyable shopping experience. The store layouts are designed for ease of navigation, and the overall aesthetic is geared towards a more pleasant shopping environment, which can encourage higher spending.
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Omni-Channel Retail Strategy: Target has effectively integrated its online and offline shopping experiences, offering services like Same-Day Delivery, Order Pickup, and Drive Up. This omni-channel approach enhances customer convenience and drives sales.
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Community Engagement and Sustainability: Target has a strong commitment to corporate social responsibility, engaging in various community programs and promoting sustainable business practices. This resonates well with socially conscious consumers.
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Market Positioning: Unlike discount retailers, Target positions itself as a more upscale alternative, appealing to a demographic that seeks value without sacrificing quality. This is particularly attractive to millennials and Gen Z shoppers.
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Supply Chain Management: Target has invested in its supply chain capabilities, allowing for efficient inventory management and reduced out-of-stock issues. This helps ensure that customers find what they need when they visit the store or shop online.
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Technology and Data Analytics: Target leverages advanced data analytics to understand customer preferences and improve service offerings. This helps in personalized marketing and product recommendations, enhancing customer relationships.
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Loyalty Programs: Target’s RedCard program offers customers discounts and shopping rewards, fostering customer loyalty and encouraging repeat business.
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Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: Target frequently collaborates with popular brands and designers to create exclusive product lines. This not only draws in customers but also creates buzz and enhances brand prestige.
These competitive advantages collectively strengthen Target's market position and contribute to its ability to navigate challenges in the retail landscape more effectively than some of its rivals.
Target Corp faces several risks and challenges as it navigates the retail landscape in the near future. Here are some key areas to consider:
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Economic Conditions:
- Inflation and Consumer Spending: Rising inflation can lead to reduced consumer spending. If customers cut back on discretionary purchases, Target may see a decline in sales.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing supply chain issues, which have been exacerbated by global events, can lead to inventory shortages and increased costs.
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Competition:
- Target operates in a highly competitive environment, facing pressures from not only traditional retailers like Walmart and Costco but also online giants like Amazon. Price competition and the need for differentiation can affect margins.
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E-commerce Shift:
- The shift to online shopping has accelerated, and maintaining a robust e-commerce platform while balancing physical store operations is critical. This also includes managing logistics effectively.
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Consumer Preferences:
- Changing consumer preferences, such as increased demand for sustainable and ethically sourced products, require constant adaptation in product offerings and supply chain practices.
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Regulatory Environment:
- Target is subject to various regulations and policies, including those related to labor laws, environmental regulations, and data protection. Changes in regulations can create compliance challenges and increased operational costs.
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Technology Risks:
- Cybersecurity threats remain a concern, as customer data protection is paramount. A breach could not only lead to financial loss but also damage brand reputation.
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Workforce Management:
- Finding and retaining talent, especially in a competitive labor market, poses challenges. Additionally, addressing workforce diversity and inclusion initiatives is increasingly important for company culture and public perception.
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Financial Performance:
- Fluctuations in operating expenses, including wages and rent, as well as securing favorable terms from suppliers and financial institutions, can impact profitability.
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Market Saturation:
- As many areas become saturated with retail options, finding new growth opportunities can be increasingly difficult. Target may need to invest in new technologies and store formats to lure customers.
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Global Economic Factors:
- Target’s operations can be affected by global economic events, including changes in trade policies, tariffs, and geopolitical tensions that may impact sourcing and product availability.
Target will need to navigate these risks through careful strategy development, adaptive business practices, and maintaining a strong relationship with its customers.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Target Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Target Corp
Current Assets | 20.6B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 3.4B |
Other Current Assets | 17.1B |
Non-Current Assets | 38B |
PP&E | 36.4B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 1.5B |
Current Liabilities | 21.8B |
Accounts Payable | 14.4B |
Accrued Liabilities | 5.7B |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.6B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 22.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 14.3B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 7.9B |
Earnings Waterfall
Target Corp
Revenue
|
107.6B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-77B
USD
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Gross Profit
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30.5B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-24.6B
USD
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Operating Income
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6B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-1.6B
USD
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Net Income
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4.4B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Target Corp
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
TGT Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Target Corp's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Target Corp's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TGT Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Target Corp's solvency score is 50/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Target Corp's solvency score is 50/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TGT Price Targets Summary
Target Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TGT is 179.524 USD with a low forecast of 120.19 USD and a high forecast of 220.5 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TGT is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
TGT Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Dividend Yield
Description
Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota and currently employs 450,000 full-time employees. The firm sells an assortment of general merchandise and food. The Company’s product category includes apparel and accessories, beauty and household essentials, food and beverage, hardlines, and home furnishing and decor. Its general merchandise stores offer an edited food assortment, including perishables, dry grocery, dairy and frozen items. The firm has stores of approximately 170,000 square feet offer a full line of food items comparable to traditional supermarkets. Its small-format stores have over 50,000 square feet that offer curated general merchandise and food assortments. Its brands include Art Class, Smartly, Auden, JoyLab, Smith & Hawken, Ava & Viv, Kindfull, Sonia Kashuk, Casaluna, Market Pantry, Threshold, Cat & Jack, Mondo Llama, Universal Thread, Cloud Island, More Than Magic, up & up, Colsie, Opalhouse, Wild Fable and Open Story, Wondershop.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one TGT stock under the Base Case scenario is 170.329 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 124.355 USD, Target Corp is Undervalued by 27%.