Sempra Energy

NYSE:SRE

Earnings Call Analysis

Sempra's Growth Prospects and Guidance Amid Strong Demand

Sempra reported third-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.89, affirming its 2024 EPS guidance between $3.12 and $3.47. Oncor anticipates 5% load growth in Texas leading to an 80% demand increase by 2030. Significant investment potential arises from a $24 billion five-year capital plan, with forecasts indicating a 40-50% increase in capital needs due to growth in large commercial customers and data centers. Sempra emphasizes the importance of high-voltage transmission, projecting to outperform historical EPS growth rates of 6-8% as energy demand rises.

Strong Financial Performance Amid Pending Decisions

In the third quarter, Sempra achieved an adjusted EPS of $0.89, maintaining a year-to-date adjusted EPS of $3.12. These results do not yet include the anticipated impact from the California General Rate Case (GRC) decision, which is expected to be finalized by the end of the year. If the outcome is favorable, any adjustments will be retroactively applied to January 1, 2024. This optimism around the GRC reinforces the company's confidence as they affirm their full-year guidance for 2024 and 2025, as well as their long-term EPS growth outlook.

Oncor: A Growth Engine in Texas

Oncor continues to show remarkable growth, driven by an expected 5% load increase between 2024 and 2025 and a staggering forecast of 80% growth in power demand by 2030 in Texas. The utility announced a robust $24 billion five-year capital plan and is currently exploring opportunities to increase this plan by an additional 40% to 50% due to a surge in demand from large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers, alongside significant infrastructure enhancements.

High Voltage Transmission Potential

Investments in high voltage transmission comprise 60% of Oncor's capital plan, indicating how pivotal this segment is for future growth. There is a notable queue of over 350 gigawatts of generation and storage connections awaiting integration into the Texas grid, which positions Oncor to become a leading entity in high-voltage transmission—a sector expected to witness substantial growth given the state's leading economic position and rising electricity demands.

Major Capital Deployment on the Horizon

Significant capital deployment is anticipated in 2025, potentially marking the largest year of investment in Oncor's history. The company is aligned with ongoing economic expansion in Texas, supported by a favorable regulatory environment that facilitates necessary infrastructure improvements. With governmental support to streamline permitting processes, Oncor is poised to meet the booming demand coming from sectors such as data centers, which alone account for a noteworthy portion of the total requests for interconnection.

Positive Outlook for Shareholder Returns

Sempra’s EPS growth outlook remains robust, targeting a growth rate of 6% to 8% consistent with past performance while setting a foundation for higher growth moving forward. The company believes that structural tailwinds in the energy sector will lead to above-average sector growth. As such, the strategy entails a disciplined approach to capital allocation, allowing the company to maintain financial strength through targeted investments in infrastructure, particularly in areas experiencing rapid development.

Security and Resilience Measures in California

In California, the proposed GRC decision indicates a 10.5% revenue requirement increase for San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) and a 14.8% increase for SoCalGas in 2024. Sempra continues to advocate for infrastructure upgrades tied to safety measures and wildfire mitigation, emphasizing investments that improve reliability while also taking steps to offset costs for consumers. These measures are critical as they enhance operational safety and potentially stabilize customer rates amid rising energy demands.

Sempra Infrastructure's Geopolitical Advantage

Sempra’s infrastructure segment is well-positioned to capitalize on shifting global energy demands, especially in light of the geopolitical climate pushing for reduced reliance on Russian gas imports. With Cameron LNG already performing well and Port Arthur Phase 2 advancing towards completion, Sempra is making strides in securing long-term alliances, as exemplified by their partnership with Saudi Aramco. These expansions are expected to bolster Sempra's market position in North America and internationally.

Strategic Financial Planning

Looking ahead, Sempra has launched a $3 billion at-the-market equity program to support its increasing capital expenditures while maintaining a robust balance sheet. This program is designed to provide financial flexibility as the company extends its capital plans in response to ongoing growth opportunities. A full update on their capital strategy is expected in February during the next earnings call, giving investors a clearer view of the financial landscape for the coming years.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good day, and welcome to Sempra's Third Quarter Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn it over to Glen Donovan. Please go ahead.

[Glen Donovan, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to Sempra's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. A live webcast of this teleconference and slide presentation are available on our website under our Events and Presentations section. We have several members of our management team with us today, including Jeff Martin, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Karen Sedgwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Justin Bird, Executive Vice President and Chief Executive Officer of Sempra Infrastructure. Allen Nye, Chief Executive Officer of Oncor; Caroline Winn, Chief Executive Officer of SDG&E; Peter Wall, Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer; and other members of our senior management team.

Before starting, I'd like to remind everyone that we'll be discussing forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statements we make today. The factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially are discussed in the company's most recent 10-K and 10-Q filed with the SEC. Earnings per common share amounts in our presentation are shown on a diluted basis, and we'll be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures.

Please refer to the presentation slides that accompany this call for a reconciliation to GAAP measures. We also encourage you to review our 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2024. I'd also like to mention that forward-looking statements contained in this presentation speak only of today, November 6, 2024, and it's important to note that the company does not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements in the future.

With that, please turn to Slide 4, and let me hand the call over to Jeff.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Thank you, Glen, and thank you all for joining us today. At Sempra, we believe the growth narrative for energy infrastructure continues to strengthen, with economic expansion and rising electricity demand, the United States is at a critical juncture where expanded investment is needed to upgrade and modernize the synergy networks.

Nationally, we face mounting challenges in the form of aging infrastructure, extreme weather events and increased demands being placed on finite, dispatchable generation resources. These trends confirm a growing need for new infrastructure investments to improve the resiliency of our energy networks, while at the same time extending the grid to new and diverse sources of energy.

Consider that by 2030, United States will need to have invested over $600 billion in transmission and distribution and that forecast will likely prove conservative due to a series of sector tailwinds. Here's an example. Today, Texas is the eighth largest economy in the world and accounts for the highest level of both consumption and production of energy in the U.S. The International Energy Agency is now estimating that by 2026, global AI and data centers will require nearly twice the amount of electricity that the state of Texas currently consumes each year.

So demand from digital infrastructure is another important growth driver for our sector. It also flags what I believe is an underappreciated investment thesis at Sempra. Here, we believe the best low-risk and high-growth play on AI is high voltage transmission. Allen will discuss this later in today's call, but there's a significant queue of over 350 gigawatts of generation and storage waiting to come on the grid in Texas. The critical success factor there is the speed at which companies like Oncor can build, modernize and extend the high-voltage transmission grid.

That's exactly why the Texas legislature passed a bill last session to shorten the permitting time line for new transmission investments. Not only is Oncor expected to build more, high-voltage transmission this decade than any other company in America, Oncor's regulated transmission investments officially go into rates with tracker filings being made twice annually. So the key takeaway for our industry is with economic expansion and higher expected demand growth, it's reasonable to believe that sector EPS growth will trend higher than historical norms.

From my perspective, to outperform the peer group in this environment, it requires 4 key advantages: number one, a clear and executable corporate strategy; number two, exposure to sustained growth in large economic markets with constructive regulation; number three, economies of scale and operations, technology and access to capital; and number four, a strong track record of disciplined capital allocation. That's why in this higher growth environment, Sempra is well positioned to outperform its peer group.

We have the leading utility platforms in the 2 largest economies in the United States, both Texas and California. And we also own an infrastructure business with scale that invest in projects, providing secure and cleaner forms of energy, targeting higher equity returns in our utilities and contributing important cash flows that support our balance sheet and capital campaign.

Currently, we're in the middle of our fall planning process and one of the early takeaways network as we have improved visibility to a growing portfolio of investment opportunities.

Next, turning to our financial results. I'm pleased with the progress the company has made in the third quarter and throughout the year as we continue to await a final GRC decision in California.

Earlier this morning, we reported adjusted EPS of $0.89 for the third quarter and year-to-date adjusted EPS of $3.12. As a reminder, these results do not yet reflect the California GRC-proposed decision, which is pending before the commission. Assuming a final decision is received before year-end, the earnings impact will be applied retroactively to the beginning of 2024. As a result, we're affirming our full year 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range, 2025 EPS guidance range and projected long-term EPS growth rate.

Next, I'll turn the call over to Allen Nye, who will take us through recent developments at Oncor, which I continue to believe has the best growth story in our industry. Please turn to the next slide.

[E. Nye, executive]

Thank you, Jeff. I'm excited to share another update on the remarkable growth opportunities we have at Oncor. To start with, EIA's latest short-term energy outlook forecasts 5% load growth between 2024 and 2025 across all ERCOT customers; and longer term, ERCOT expects power demand in Texas to grow by 80% through 2030 from the recent peak demand record of approximately 85 gigawatts.

Moving to our operational achievements. In the third quarter, Oncor built, rebuilt or upgraded over 800 miles of T&D lines, increased our premise count by approximately 19,000 and received a 50% increase in new large C&I POI requests.

Turning to the $24 billion 5-year capital plan that we announced earlier this year, we continue to see a growing portfolio of new investment opportunities. As you'll recall, we filed our inaugural system resiliency plan or SRP, earlier this year and reached an unopposed settlement in August.

We continue to advance our filing through the regulatory process, but as a reminder, the SRP is incremental to our current capital plan. Oncor's SRP investment will total nearly $3 billion of capital expenditures designed to reduce risk and over $500 million of incremental O&M expense with the majority of the spending to occur in calendar years 2025 to 2027. If approved by the PUCT, we expect to start incurring that spend before the end of the year. We discussed the SRP with the PUCT at its open meeting a couple of weeks ago, and we expect them to continue their consideration of the plan and settlement at their meeting on November 14.

We've also developed a leading wildfire mitigation program in the state of Texas and continue to leverage the expertise and insights gained from the Texas Forest Service and SDG&E, among others. In addition to the SRP, new investment opportunities are being driven by large C&I customers looking to connect to Oncor system. The continued increase in interconnection interest and commitments comes from large C&I customers, spanning multiple, diverse industries located throughout Oncor service territory.

We are currently executing our fall planning cycle in alignment with Sempra to assess future capital projects, and we'll be announcing our new 5-year capital plan on the fourth quarter call. Given ongoing economic expansion in Texas and significant new customer growth, plus transmission anticipated within ERCOT, we're expecting a significant increase in our roll forward 5-year capital plan of anywhere between 40% to 50% from our current capital plan.

In Texas, our growth opportunities remain robust, and the regulatory framework supports critical new investments to expand our system and improve grid resiliency and reliability for our customers. And across our management team, we couldn't be more excited to support the growing energy needs of our customers.

Please turn to the next slide. Next, I'd like to turn your attention to another major tailwind positively impacting Oncor's anticipated service territory growth over both the intermediate and long term.

Today, ERCOT projects demand growth in the Permian Basin to quadruple to 26.4 gigawatts in 2038 from the 2023 actual level of 6.6 gigawatts. This represents an impressive compound annual growth of nearly 10%, proving once again that the region has some of the strongest growth prospects in the nation.

In early fall, the PUCT approved ERCOT's Permian Basin Reliability Plan, which permits all common local projects totaling approximately $4 billion to commence immediately irrespective of the voltage level that the commission will eventually approve for the needed import paths. We expect Oncor to capture a significant portion of the new capital investment opportunities, given our current operations in the Permian Basin and ERCOT's preliminary recommendations.

Project assignments will be approved by the PUCT, and we're not standing still as we've already begun preparation for the transmission projects expected to be assigned to Oncor. We'll be filing the necessary certificates of convenience and necessity for those projects beginning in early 2025, and we'll continue the necessary make-ready work throughout the year. These proceedings are expected to take approximately 180 days under Texas law.

In terms of the time line, the Permian plan provides that most of the local projects need to be in service by 2030, with all projects, including the import pathway projects completed by 2038. The full plan calls for a total investment of at least $13 billion in the Permian Basin territory. Specifically, the Permian plan proposes $4 billion for local projects and another $9 billion or more of transmission CapEx at either 345 kV or 765 kV voltage levels. The PUCT is expected to make a final decision on 345 kV or 765 kV import options by May 2025.

Please turn to the next slide. Longer term, it is also important to note that ERCOT has provided a preliminary vision of a modern, statewide extra high voltage or EHV grid. At this stage, it is preliminary and remains subject to the plan being finalized and obtaining customary regulatory approvals. But assuming the statewide EHV initiative is implemented, Oncor expects to construct a significant number of these projects due to the current number of endpoints owned by Oncor.

These projects, when taken together, would add major transmission lines across the state to connect new sources of generation, increase overall electric load serving capability and improved system resiliency. As currently envisioned, Phase 1 of the EHV initiative would include the Permian planned 765 kV lines as well as connections in Eastern and Central Texas, whereas Phase 2 would include connections in the Texas Panhandle and Rio Grande Valley.

Now please turn to the next slide where Karen will walk through business updates at Sempra, California and Sempra Infrastructure.

[Karen Sedgwick, executive]

Thank you, Allen. I'd first like to provide some background on the proposed decision we received in our general rate cases last month. To start, the proposed decision increases the revenue requirement in 2024 by 10.5% for SDG&E and 14.8% for SoCalGas.

Moving to rate base. The PD recommends 2024 authorized rate base of $8.4 billion for SDG&E and $12.8 billion for SoCalGas. There are, however, critical aspects of the PD that require additional work, particularly in areas that impact our ability to manage the system safely. Examples include needed investments for integrity management of our natural gas distribution system and selective undergrounding of our electrical system to support wildfire mitigation efforts.

On the positive side, you'll recall that our GRC addresses a broad range of topics that are important to the growth of our business. For example, the PD adopted certain infrastructure and technology capital projects that were not included in the base attrition year percentages, but are also important because they will be placed in rates upon completion. Also as a reminder, the proposed decision makes available a process that allows for certain changes to be considered before a final decision is issued.

On November 4, the CPUC heard oral arguments, the records of which are open to the public. SDG&E and SoCalGas' subject matter experts are engaged in the regulatory process and working collaboratively towards reaching a final outcome that's beneficial for all stakeholders.

During the quarter, our California Utilities also received a final decision in Phase 2 of the cost of capital proceeding, which has a negative impact on the CCM for 2025. This onetime formula rate modification lowers ROEs by 42 basis points and reduces the authorized adjustment percentage for future triggers to 20%.

The silver lining here is that in the declining interest rate environment, such as the one we now find ourselves in, limits the magnitude of subsequent reductions in ROE in off-cycle years. For planning purposes, I'd also like to note that we expect to file our cost of capital application for the years 2026 to 2028 in March of next year.

Turning to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, SDG&E submitted a new TO6 filing on October 30, where we updated our formulaic rate and made the case for a constructive improvement in the authorized ROE to 12.25%. This consists of a base ROE of 11.75% plus a 50 basis point adder. We believe this proposal reflects current market conditions and we look forward to working through the regulatory process to achieve a productive result.

Additionally, at Sempra California, we're excited to share that the SDG&E service territory has seen electric demand growth, hitting a new all-time record peak demand of over 5 gigawatts in September. This reflects growing demand from roughly 160,000 EVs connected to our system, one of the highest EV penetration rates in the country and from continued electrification of the Southern California economy.

Please turn to the next slide. Turning to Sempra Infrastructure. We continue to witness geopolitical developments around the world, which strengthen the value proposition of our infrastructure franchise. The U.S. is the largest exporter of LNG in the world. And as a leader in the sector, Sempra Infrastructure remains well positioned to supply new customers in European and Asian markets. As Europe continues to reduce its energy imports from Russia, we believe there is a growing need for stable, lower-cost gas supply, which would further drive demand for North American LNG.

A few examples include: The EU has recently banned reexports to third-party countries taking effect in March 2025. Ukraine rejected a deal to extend Russian gas through Ukrainian pipelines beyond 2024. The EU's incoming Energy Commissioner has intensified efforts to independence on Russian gas imports. A number of EU member states are demanding tagging of LNG by source as it enters its ports to further cut back on Russian LNG imports, and this is all on top of the major natural gas pipeline capacity that was taken offline at the start of the war in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, there are strong market consensus that Asian LNG demand will continue to grow dramatically through the next 15 years, with growth estimates range between 70% and 100% from 2023 levels. Much of this demand is tied to the displacement of more carbon-intensive fuels such as coal and refined products from the energy mix of emerging economies in South and Southeast Asia as well as continued demand growth in China and India.

Bottom line, Sempra Infrastructure is well positioned to be a preferred provider to establish counterparties seeking to match long-term LNG supply with growing demand in Europe and Asia. Alongside these macroeconomic tailwinds, Cameron LNG Phase 1 continues to perform well. Year-to-date, the facility has already loaded 140 cargoes and lifetime to date, Cameron has now surpassed 840 cargoes. Notably, the current 2024 production level exceeds the average annual run rate implied since COD. So we continue to witness strong and improving results from this facility.

Turning to construction updates. We're advancing work on a series of major projects. ECA LNG Phase 1 construction continues to make progress. The project is now focusing on finishing above-ground piping installation and our time line to bring commercial operations online in spring 2026 remains intact. Additionally, we're pleased to announce the expansion of the GRO pipeline, is expected to commence commercial operations before the end of the year. You will recall this pipeline is dedicated to support LNG exports at ECA.

Port Arthur Phase 1 is also advancing as planned and is on time and on budget. Currently, work is focused on piling, dredging, foundations, structural steel and above ground piping installations. We also received a FERC letter of authorization for the Louisiana Connector pipeline, which will provide feed gas into Port Arthur from the Haynesville Basin. Mobilization activities to commence building this pipeline have already begun.

Moving to our development efforts at Port Arthur Phase 2, the focus remains on finalizing offtake arrangements and securing project financing. We continue to have discussions with potential off-takers. We've made significant commercial progress to date and are focused now on selecting the right [ customer mix ] and improving our commercial terms. Most notably, Saudi Aramco is our anchor partner on the project, with a nonbinding HOA for 5 million tons per annum and a 25% equity participation. As a reminder, we have an EPC agreement with Bechtel to allow for continuous construction across both phases.

We also continue to wait for our DOE non-FDA export permit, which we expect to be resolved next year. As a result, we're now expecting Port Arthur Phase 2 development time line to move ahead of the Cameron expansion. The timing of an FID decision for Cameron expansion is uncertain at this point. We continue to work with our partners on the optimal timing for expansion. As we've been in the past, we'll be very disciplined in our efforts to secure quality returns and mitigate risk to capital before making any investment decision.

Please turn to the next slide. Earlier this morning, Sempra reported third quarter 2024 GAAP earnings of $638 million or $1 per share. This compares to third quarter 2023 GAAP earnings of $721 million or $1.14 per share. On an adjusted basis, third quarter 2024 earnings were $566 million or $0.89 per share. This compares to our third quarter 2023 earnings of $685 million or $1.08 per share. Because the GRC outcome remains pending, our CPUC authorized base revenues in third quarter and year-to-date 2024 are based on 2023 authorized levels. This is important because assuming we receive a final decision this year, any true-up will be retroactively applied to January 1.

Please turn to the next slide. Variances in the third quarter 2024 adjusted earnings compared to the same period last year can be summarized as followed.

At Sempra, California, we had $9 million from higher CPUC base operating margin, net of operating expenses, including higher authorized cost of capital and higher regulatory interest income. This was more than offset by $52 million, primarily from lower income tax benefits and higher net interest expense. Turning to Sempra Texas. We had $44 million of lower equity earnings from higher interest and operating expenses and lower consumption, partially offset by higher revenues from invested capital and customer growth.

At Sempra Infrastructure, we had $36 million of lower revenues in the Transportation and Renewables business, higher O&M and lower asset and supply optimization, partially offset by $7 million, primarily from higher income tax benefit and lower net interest due to higher capitalized interest. At Sempra parent, the $3 million net change is primarily due to higher taxes, partially offset by net investment gains.

Please turn to the next slide. To conclude our prepared remarks, I'd like to quickly summarize our key investment highlights. As energy needs grow and evolve in North America, our commitment to operational excellence supports our focus on delivering safer, more reliable and resilient energy. And our position as a leader in North America's largest economic markets gives us unique opportunity to invest higher levels of capital in critical new energy infrastructure through the end of the decade and beyond.

For general corporate purposes and to finance our growing capital campaign, we are establishing an at-the-market equity program of $3 billion. This will help us fund growth in capital expenditures in a timely and efficient manner, while continuing to maintain the strength of our balance sheet. After we received the GRC final decision, we'll be in an excellent position to roll forward our 5-year capital plan through 2029. We expect to provide that update in February on our Q4 call.

And in the interim, we'll continue executing on value-accretive investments that drive sustainable, long-term growth. Thank you for joining us. And I'd like to now open the line up for your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. This concludes the prepared remarks. [Operator Instructions] And our first question will come from Nick Campanella from Barclays.

[Nicholas Campanella, analyst]

So Jeff, on your comments about demand growth and sector EPS growth kind of trending higher than its historical norms. You've been growing EPS above the sector already. And I just want to confirm that inclusive of all these items that you laid out on the capital side, do you have line of sight to the CAGR like above the 6% to 8% range? And how should we kind of be thinking about that as you kind of piece together all this capital that's coming down the pipe into the fourth quarter?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Thank you for that question, Nick. And we've had these conversations before. But when you think about the period from 2000 to 2020, our sector had average EPS growth of roughly 3%. Now that changes from time to time. And in recent years, it's been trending higher closer to 4%. What I think is going to happen is I think we're in a significant growth period for our utility sector, what some people are referring to as a super cycle.

In other words, we expect to see growth through this decade and well into the next decade. And I think you're going to see overall average EPS growth across the sector trend higher. We have traditionally oriented towards 6% to 8%. We think there's kind of an efficient frontier there in terms of balancing that with a strong dividend policy. And I think total return is very important to the utility investors that invest in the sector. So we're very comfortable with the 6% to 8% growth rate.

And I think the key takeaway from today's call is, we certainly have a field of vision to a lot more opportunities in the future. We certainly will be working hard to exceed the high end of that range, but we're comfortable now that with a lot of certainty about the growth backlog we have that we can deliver that range or better.

[Nicholas Campanella, analyst]

And then just quickly on the ATM. When do you think you're going to start to need equity? Is it this year? Or is it next year? You were smart last year to kind of derisk the equity plan ahead of your formal CapEx outlook. So just wondering if that's on the table again, and that's it for me.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Yes. Thank you very much, Nick. Last year, you recall that we provided a little bit of visibility on our Q3 call to increases in our 5-year capital plan at the Sempra level. And you're correct, we followed up with a roughly $1.3 billion secondary offering. I think what was interesting in our fall planning process this year and both Justin and I were with Allen last week in Dallas at their Board meeting, they just have remarkable visibility to growth.

And I thought it was important for us to signal to our investors that opportunity now rather than wait until the February time frame, we'll obviously give a lot of details in February, but I thought it was important to do that. And make sure that we were adding the ATM as an additional tool in our toolbox. And I think many of you have followed the fact that ATMs have become much more common recently as companies seek alternatives to traditional offerings. So at Sempra, we just view it as another option for us to officially finance our business. We've sized it at the $3 billion level. And I think the best takeaway for everyone is when we get to our February call, we're going to provide a full update on our roll-forward capital program, including, Nick, sources and uses of funding, and we'll also be prepared at that time to provide what I hope will be a robust view of 2026 guidance.

[Operator]

Our next question will come from Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.

[Shahriar Pourreza, analyst]

Let me just -- quickly want to follow up on Nick's question on the equity. Just on the $3 billion of ATM, I couldn't get a sense, is that fully funding your anticipated CapEx increases? Or could there be more equity coming, especially as we're thinking about potential funding needs at SIP as that ramps up?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Yes. Thank you for the question, Shar. What we do is we go through a very comprehensive bottom-up process in the fall, where we force everyone's growth plans inside of Sempra across all 3 platforms to compete for capital. And as you've seen in the past, the lion's share of our 5-year capital program goes through our U.S. utilities in California and Texas. It traditionally takes between 90% and 95% of our overall capital plan goes through our utility.

So what we've done at this early juncture is really provide visibility to the fact that there is a significant increase of capital that will be coming out in Oncor's plan when we announce in February, and we thought it was appropriate to make sure we had this additional tool in our toolbox. We're not prepared to talk about when we would use it, but I do think we'll provide a lot of detail on our February call.

[Shahriar Pourreza, analyst]

Okay. But the $3 billion is the $3 billion we shouldn't, I guess, assume it could be higher.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Exactly. Exactly. We feel very comfortable with $3 billion.

[Shahriar Pourreza, analyst]

Excellent. Okay. Perfect. And then just in terms of the proposed decision in California, just from a planning parameter standpoint, does the PD present a headwind versus your midpoint expectations? And sort of given the recommendation for lower attrition year revenue increases, could you see CapEx pulling back at SoCalGas and San Diego Gas & Electric?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Yes. What I would describe is in the fall planning process, we're challenging all of our executives to make sure that they've got a fulsome and disciplined approach to capital utilization. So there is a process of give and take between both projects as well as overall capital by business. And over a long period of time, forcing that discipline inside the organization to compete for capital. And it's not just highest return, it's also returns relative to risk.

So that process is ongoing. A comment I make about the PD is we feel there are some aspects of the PD, Shar, that are actually quite constructive. But we noted in our prepared remarks, that we also see opportunities to improve the decision in areas that we think are very important to our customers namely safety, reliability and affordability. So we had oral arguments earlier this week and a couple of things we highlighted there where we think additional improvements are necessary as the -- number one, the need for additional undergrounding to support wildfire mitigation; number two, improvements to integrity management programs. And you'll recall, that's very important for us in terms of operating the natural gas distribution system safely.

To your point, we do think additional increases in post year funding is important because that has to align with our expected business level of activity. And finally, we're still identifying areas that might offset cost to our customers because of our focus on affordability, and that's mainly in the form of tax benefits. So I would conclude by saying we'll continue to work collaboratively. We don't want to get in front of our regulator on this. But I think we have the chance, Shar, to do 2 things: get to an outcome this year and get to an outcome that's constructive for all of our stakeholders.

[Operator]

Our next question will come from Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Maybe just picking up on the Oncor side, that 40% to 50% range is tantalizing there. Look, I know it's preliminary, but can you give us a little bit of a breakdown? I know you got the $3 billion with the SRP. But what else is in there, right? When you think about that balance of, say, roughly $6 billion to $9 billion, is that Permian Basin. How much of that is low growth? Can you give us a little bit of sense of what's baked in, in terms of that range and where you go from it?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Well, Julien, the good news is you live in Texas. So hopefully, you've been seeing a lot of this firsthand. For several years now, you and I have had this conversation as well as others. I have consistently said that Oncor has the best overall growth program in the country. I think we're seeing that play out in real time. And I think we have an opportunity, Allen, if you don't mind. Why don't we walk through some of the growth drivers that you're seeing and provide additional color for Julien.

[E. Nye, executive]

Yes, you bet, Jeff. And thanks, Julien. We continue to see just very strong growth across our service territory pretty much in all categories of various types of customers that we serve. Strong residential and meter growth, strong growth on our transmission system, especially regarding LC&I interconnections, strong growth in West Texas and the Permian and increased opportunities to invest in kind of the transmission backbone of ERCOT to support our customers [indiscernible] in transfers across the state.

As I said in my opening remarks, or Jeff did, premise growth continues to be very strong. We added 19,000 this quarter, and we continue to see long-term growth around 2% or double the national average. Transmission points of interconnection continue to be a big deal for us. New transmission point of interconnections were up 38% versus the same quarter last year. Total transmission point of interconnections were up 17% versus the same quarter last year. Generation remains very strong. We have over 500 projects seeking to interconnect to us right now in our queue, gives us about a 13% increase over the same quarter last year for generation.

The biggest jump continues to be with regards to LC&I customers seeking to connect to our transmission system. We have 379 of those right now, and that represents a 23% increase over the same quarter last year, but the real story is in request from what we refer to as large load customers, right? The customers that are seeking to interconnect with our system that are seeking to interconnect at a level of at least 100 megawatts individually all the way up to multiple gigawatts.

I think I represented the last quarter that we had about 80 gigawatts of those customers. And a quarter later, we're now up to 103 gigawatts of potential load additions related to that group of customers. Of that 103, 82 gigawatts approximately is data center related and 21 approximately gigawatts is unrelated to data centers. So I just want to make 2 points with regards to that 103 number. If you look at our system right now, our current peak load on the Oncor system is about 31 gigawatts. So when you're comparing that to 103 gigawatts, we're looking at potential load additions of more than 3x our current peak load, that's one.

And then the other point, which I just made briefly a moment ago is 103 gigawatts this quarter versus 80 gigawatts last quarter represents about a 29% increase in potential load from these types of customers in one quarter. So that continues to be a big driver of what we're looking at going forward into February. West Texas, again, remains a great story with the Far West Texas weather zone peaking at about 15% above the 2023 peak.

Our 2 transmission loops that we serve the Permian and the Delaware through continue to be strong with The Culberson Loop, up 26% versus the peak of last year already, and the Stanton Loop up 5.7%. So the strong growth we're seeing in West Texas. Obviously, we can talk about the Permian plant in a minute, but it's also leading to, what I would call, base load -- the non-Permian plan additions in the region, including projects that are coming out of the Delaware Basin project study of 2019. We're presently in stages 2 through 5 of that group of projects as well as the Permian Basin load integration study project from 2021, which we now refer to as the West Texas infrastructure project.

So we have a number of transmission projects moving forward out of those 2 studies and plans that are separate and apart from the Permian plan. Obviously, we still have the Permian plan, Permian Basin reliability plan going through the PUC process right now as well as the extra high-voltage plan that was mentioned previously. We've got our SRP still to come, hopefully on November 14. And then we have, of course, the ERCOT revised load forecast of 152 gigawatts as well as the general regional transmission plan coming out in December. So those are a lot of the things that we are looking at with our Board right now. Very excited to have all these opportunities on our system. We think it's a great growth story. And by February, we'll have this all worked out.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

And then, Julien, what I would add, just to summarize a couple of points from Allen's discussion is growth at Oncor is both geographically diverse, and it cuts across all customer categories. And as I said in my prepared remarks, I think that our AI exposure is an understated investment thesis at Sempra. Think about this, Oncor has 82 gigawatts of pending interconnection request for AI. I would challenge any other company in America to put forward a bigger number.

And keep in mind, the entire state of California has a 50 to 55 overall gigawatt peak. So just an interconnection request for AI only, Oncor is dealing with 82 gigawatts of future opportunities. Their growth is also centered on the most valuable asset in the utility world, and that's high voltage transmission. High-voltage transmission comprises 60% of their overall capital plan. And I would also add, in addition to broad exposure to growth, Oncor benefits from a constructive regulatory compact with tracker mechanisms that we've discussed before, they're being filed twice annually to true-up for T&D investments. So it is a remarkable growth story. It is remarkable exposure to transmission and particularly from customer growth and AI.

And I think it's got one of the best regulatory compacts in the country.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Yes. Those are truly phenomenal statistic. And I agree, I see it. With that said, actually, you're talking about 60% is high voltage. I mean what are you guys reflecting in that range on the 765, the higher element on the transmission. Is that basically the upper end there? Just to clarify.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Yes. The -- as we went through our prepared remarks, there's about $13 billion in that Permian plan, which I think assumes a 345 kV. But I think the most important thing that Allen mentioned was, is the PUCT will be making a determination as to whether that's a 345 upgrade and build out in May or whether it's 765. So that remains to be seen.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

We'll know the answer [indiscernible] next year.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Yes.

[Operator]

And our next question will come from Carly Davenport from Goldman Sachs.

[Carly Davenport, analyst]

Jeff, maybe just to start on the LNG business. Any -- are you anticipating any changes to the outlook there just as a result of the administration changes. And then as you think about Port Arthur Phase 2, is the permit sort of the last gating factor that would determine when you take FID on that project?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Thank you. And maybe we've got Justin Bird with us here who is the CEO of Sempra infrastructure perhaps, Justin, you can walk through Port Arthur Phase 2 and then speak to the permit issue that Carly referenced.

[Justin Bird, executive]

Carly, as Karen noted in her prepared remarks, we continue to advance Port Arthur 2. And I'd say we've made considerable progress. As noted on our Q2 call, we saw an increased interest in Port Arthur 2, and I'm happy to say that interest has further increased since the call, and momentum continues to build. Commercial discussions for offtake and project equity are ongoing, and I think we're seeing better terms.

We have our 20-year agreement with Aramco for 5 million tons per annum as well as 25% of the equity. Our EPC agreement with Bechtel allows for continuous construction. We view that as a competitive advantage. And on the permitting side, as you noted, we're waiting for our DOE non-FTA export permit and we expect that to be resolved in the first half of next year. We continue to identify sources of financing for the project, and advance the other key milestones to put us in a position to take a final investment decision. To wrap up, I'd say the expansion of Port Arthur is a terrific opportunity, and we look forward to advancing the project.

[Carly Davenport, analyst]

Great. That's really helpful commentary there. And then maybe just shift quickly back to Texas, and I appreciate all of the commentary there so far. Just as you look forward to 2025, is there anything that you'd highlight that you're looking out for in the legislative session in Texas that could impact the growth outlook there?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

No, I would just say that I think that based upon the meetings we had last week, I think, obviously, 2025 will be the biggest capital deployment year, I think, in that company's history. The team is putting together their overall legislative strategy for next year. And Allen, perhaps, you could just mention if there's anything notable that you want to discuss.

[E. Nye, executive]

Jeff, I think you covered it. I mean, Carly, there's obviously a lot of chatter in Austin about utility issues. We've had that before. I think we are in an excellent position going into this session as Oncor. Obviously, we're going to have to deal with things like the fallout from Hurricane Barrel. But there is nothing that I am overly concerned about right now. Obviously, we'll have to wait till a few more weeks until we see what bills get filed. But we are more than ready to handle anything that comes our way, and I'm confident and excited going into discussion to see what we can do.

[Operator]

Our next question will come from Durgesh Chopra from Evercore ISI.

[Durgesh Chopra, analyst]

Just can I go back to the equity really quickly. I just want to clarify something. The $3 billion, does that -- is that basically all the equity that you need as you roll forward the plan from -- the 5-year plan '25 to '29. Can you clarify that?

And then maybe any color that you can share in terms of timing of the $3 billion equity. Does that have to be done next year? Or will it be spread out toward the planning period?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Sure. I'll just start by Durgesh review on what our goal is for February. On our Q4 call, our convention has been to really present our 5-year capital plan, almost like an analyst conference, frankly. And when we do that, we reconcile the balance sheet and do come a deep dive into sources and uses of funding. So that conversation is probably more appropriate for February.

What we also do in February is we tend to basically go into [indiscernible] year guidance. So we'll release 2026 guidance at that time. We've always felt like if we have some early visibility in the fall before you get to February, where we can kind of guide the Street to our expectations, we think that's always been viewed helpful.

So I think we had a real opportunity today to come forward with a very bullish, muscular view of our Texas capital program. We'll fine tune that and come out with more details in February. And likewise, on the ATM, we just view this as another financing alternative for us. Our job is to make sure we compete capital internally. We are also using hybrids and as part of our overall funding mechanism and having the A team in place, we think, is being thoughtful.

[Durgesh Chopra, analyst]

Got it. Okay. I just wanted to clarify that looks like we're going to get more color. Can I just quickly ask you one more question? Just anything on the LNG permit pause given the sort of the election results. Previously, you kind of talked about -- sorry, go ahead, Jeff.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

No, I'm sorry. Please finish your question.

[Durgesh Chopra, analyst]

No, that's it. Just any update there as it relates to the pause.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

No. I would just say that maybe a higher level comment. We have intended to kind of run our business as a nonpartisan business, right? We don't focus on one party or other. Remember, about 6 years ago, we refocused our business from energy to energy infrastructure. And historically, that's been an area of strong bipartisan support. And frankly, even under the Biden administration, there was bipartisan support for the infrastructure bill.

And I think as we look forward, when we think about delivering cleaner and secure energy, it's not more about one party or another, it's about knowing what's best for our country and for our customers. So when it comes to LNG. We've had a constructive view that America has an opportunity to play a larger role in the world. I think you're going to continue to see this country assert a leadership position in the production of energy. It's going to basically benefit our domestic uses. Hopefully, it will continue to support a growing economy here in the United States. But look, quite frankly, we have an increasingly important role in serving our allies abroad. And LNG is a very, very important tool of American Foreign Policy. I think you'll continue to see us take an important role at Sempra Infrastructure. And I think we have growing confidence in getting the permits we need for Port Arthur Phase 2 in the first half of next year.

[Operator]

And we now have time for one more question. And our last question will come from Steven Fleishman from Wolfe.

[Steven Fleishman, analyst]

Yes. I appreciate it. Just going back to the California case, you mentioned -- and affordability seems to be a focus and you mentioned the tax-related benefits that could be something you suggested. Could you give us a sense of just how much that could impact rates to the benefit of customers and your thinking on that?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

No. I think what took place in the proposed decision was they outlined but they thought the changes in the step-up in revenue requirement was for year 1 and then through the attrition years. And I think we're being really focused on making sure that we can operate our systems safely. We're working with all the different parties who are part of the proceeding. And as you do that, it's important if you're trying to propose additional funding that you're also trying to find ways to reduce cost.

So I think what took place in the oral argument this week was we outlined a series of opportunities where we thought that customers would benefit from additional safety investments including to integrity programs and to our wildfire undergrounding programs. And I think to do that, we've also proposed some additional tax benefits that would lessen the impact to customers. So this is a process in California where you try to work with all the different stakeholders to get to a good outcome. I think we have some confidence that we'll get that done this year, and then we'll get to an outcome that people feel good about.

[Steven Fleishman, analyst]

That's good. And just based on the kind of proposals you made there, like the attrition adjustments, what would they be roughly per year relative to the proposed decision?

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Yes. What I don't want to do is I don't really want to front run the process we're in right now. We're actually making some comment filings tomorrow. And what we want to do is let the process roll forward, give everyone the opportunity to participate in it. I think the decision itself that we have today that's proposed, but there's a lot of constructive aspects to it, but we're very deeply involved in it right now, Steve, over the next couple of weeks. So I'd prefer to let the process play out. And our comments tomorrow, I think, will be instructive to your question.

[Steven Fleishman, analyst]

Okay. Understood. And then lastly, just on Oncor, which is phenomenal. I remember you raised your capital plan to $48 billion overall from, I think, $40 billion back. I think that was early this year or late last year. Would this be all incremental to the $48 billion for all of Sempra? Or some of that already including somewhat higher capital at Oncor. There's been so many capital increases. It's hard to keep track of it.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Thank you for framing a high-class problem, by the way. So look, we're going through a very disciplined process. This is not a process at Sempra where you just put one project on top of another project and sum up the total of the capital. We do, Steve, really go through a rigorous process to make capital compete. But there's no question that the growth we're seeing at Oncor will be incremental to our $48 billion and there's still opportunities that other 2 business platforms to also grow their capital needs. So that process is underway today. But clearly, the Oncor program is incremental to the $48 billion.

[Operator]

Thank you. That concludes today's question-and-answer session. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference back to Jeff Martin for any additional closing remarks.

[Jeffery Martin, executive]

Well, we certainly appreciate everyone joining us on the call today. I'd like to close out with a few summary comments. First, we're optimistic about finalizing our general rate cases here in California by the end of the year, and we'll work with all parties to get to a constructive outcome. .

Second, I was pleased that we're able to update everyone today on developments at Oncor. We see significant investment opportunities in Texas from the SRP program, diverse customer growth across Oncor service territory, including connection requests from data centers totaling 82 gigawatts. We also see new investments necessary to support growth in the Permian Basin and expanding the transmission backbone for ERCOT.

So [indiscernible] note that at our infrastructure business, we continue to operate a growing portfolio of assets and also are managing several major construction projects simultaneously, which should, together translate into higher levels of growth in the future for Sempra.

And finally, the strength of our 3 combined growth platforms gives us a lot of confidence and continue to grow our business while delivering shareholder value over the long term.

I would also like to mention that Trevor Mihalik will be retiring at the end of the year -- has served at Sempra for over a decade, held numerous leadership positions and been a great partner to me. Please join me in thanking Trevor for all of his contributions. If there are any follow-up items, please reach out to our IR team with your questions, and we certainly look forward to seeing many of you at EEI in Florida next week. This concludes our call.

[Operator]

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.