Spotify Technology SA
NYSE:SPOT
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one SPOT stock under the Base Case scenario is 205.6 USD. Compared to the current market price of 475.04 USD, Spotify Technology SA is Overvalued by 57%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Spotify Technology SA
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Spotify Technology SA
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Spotify Technology SA, the pioneering force in the music streaming industry, has transformed the way millions of people access and enjoy music since its inception in 2006. With a mission to democratize music and provide artists with a platform to connect with fans, Spotify has continually evolved its offerings, allowing users to access a vast library of songs and podcasts, personalized playlists, and curated content. This innovative approach has not only made it a household name among music lovers worldwide but also positioned the company as a key player in the growing audio entertainment market. As of 2023, Spotify boasts over 500 million monthly active users, a remarkable figure that under...
Spotify Technology SA, the pioneering force in the music streaming industry, has transformed the way millions of people access and enjoy music since its inception in 2006. With a mission to democratize music and provide artists with a platform to connect with fans, Spotify has continually evolved its offerings, allowing users to access a vast library of songs and podcasts, personalized playlists, and curated content. This innovative approach has not only made it a household name among music lovers worldwide but also positioned the company as a key player in the growing audio entertainment market. As of 2023, Spotify boasts over 500 million monthly active users, a remarkable figure that underscores its ability to capture and maintain a loyal audience in an increasingly competitive landscape.
For investors, Spotify represents a unique opportunity to tap into the burgeoning digital audio space, driven by trends in consumption and technology. The company's strategic investments in podcasting and exclusive content have diversified its revenue streams, enhancing its long-term growth prospects. With an expanding global footprint and a commitment to innovation, Spotify continues to refine its business model, focusing on user engagement and monetization strategies that improve profitability. As the company navigates the challenges of licensing costs and competition, its strong brand recognition and user base present a compelling case for potential investors looking for exposure in the evolving entertainment industry.
Spotify Technology SA operates primarily in the digital music streaming industry and has several core business segments that contribute to its overall operations and revenue. Here are the key segments:
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Premium Subscriptions:
- This segment represents the majority of Spotify's revenue. Spotify offers a premium subscription service, which provides users with ad-free music streaming, offline listening, and enhanced audio quality. The premium model includes various tiered pricing plans, including individual, family, student, and duo subscriptions.
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Ad-Supported Services:
- Spotify also offers a free tier that allows users to access music without a subscription, supported by advertisements. This service is crucial for attracting a broader audience and converting free users to premium subscribers over time. The company generates revenue from advertisers who pay to promote their products and services to users of the free tier.
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Podcasts:
- In recent years, Spotify has aggressively expanded its podcasting segment by acquiring exclusive rights to popular shows, signing exclusive deals with creators, and investing in production capabilities. This segment aims to attract a diverse listener base and generate additional advertising revenue, as well as potentially monetizing original podcast content.
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Content Licensing and Partnerships:
- Spotify enters into licensing agreements with record labels, artists, and content creators to host and distribute music and podcasts on the platform. These partnerships are crucial for obtaining a vast library of content that appeals to users and enhances the overall user experience.
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Technology and Innovation:
- Spotify continuously invests in technology and innovation to improve its platform, including advanced algorithms for personalized music recommendations, user interface enhancements, and AI-driven features. This segment is integral to maintaining competitive advantage and user engagement.
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International Expansion:
- Spotify is actively expanding its presence in international markets, adapting its offerings to local preferences and exploring partnerships that can enhance its market positioning in diverse regions.
These core business segments are interconnected and play a vital role in Spotify’s strategy to sustain growth, enhance user engagement, and diversify revenue streams.
Spotify Technology SA holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the music streaming industry. Here are some key factors:
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User Base and Market Share: Spotify has a significant global user base, with hundreds of millions of users, including a considerable number of paid subscribers. This large audience provides a network effect, making the platform more attractive to both users and artists.
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Personalization and Discovery Features: Spotify’s algorithm-driven playlists, such as Discover Weekly and Daily Mix, offer highly personalized music recommendations. This strong focus on personalization helps retain users and keeps them engaged, setting Spotify apart from competitors.
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Robust Content Library: Spotify has amassed an extensive library of music and podcasts, including exclusive content. Its deals with various labels and artists contribute to a diverse catalog that is constantly updated.
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Innovative Playlists and Curated Content: Spotify’s ability to curate playlists for different moods, activities, and occasions enhances user experience. Its editorial team works diligently to create and promote curated playlists, further driving user engagement.
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Freemium Model: Spotify’s freemium model allows users to access a basic version for free, which helps attract new users who can later be converted to premium subscribers. This strategy broadens its user base compared to rivals with only subscription-based models.
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Integration and Partnerships: Spotify’s strategic partnerships with various platforms, devices, and services (such as gaming consoles, smart speakers, and social media) allow for seamless integration, increasing accessibility and convenience for users.
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Data Utilization: Spotify leverages user data effectively to improve user experience, refine algorithms, and offer targeted advertising. This data-driven approach enhances user retention and attracts advertisers.
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Focus on Podcasts: Spotify has heavily invested in podcast content, acquiring companies and exclusive content that has positioned it as a leading platform in the podcasting space. This diversification helps capture a broader audience beyond music alone.
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Global Reach: Spotify has established a presence in numerous markets worldwide, allowing it to cater to diverse musical tastes and preferences. Its ability to localize content helps it connect with various demographics effectively.
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Brand Recognition: As one of the first major music streaming services, Spotify has built strong brand recognition. Its early entry and continued innovation keep it top-of-mind for consumers considering music streaming options.
These competitive advantages help Spotify maintain its position as a leader in the music streaming industry, allowing it to fend off competition from other players like Apple Music, Amazon Music, and YouTube Music.
Spotify Technology SA faces several risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Increased Competition: The music streaming market is becoming increasingly competitive, with rivals like Apple Music, Amazon Music, Google Play Music, and emerging platforms continually vying for market share. This could lead to pressure on pricing and margin compression.
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Content Costs: Licensing costs for music and podcasts can be significant and have the potential to rise. Spotify’s business model heavily relies on acquiring and retaining content, which requires substantial financial investment.
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Profitability Challenges: Despite its growth, Spotify has struggled to achieve consistent profitability. Sustaining growth while managing costs, particularly in content acquisition and technology, remains a challenge.
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Market Saturation: In mature markets, such as the U.S. and Europe, growth may slow as the market reaches saturation. Finding new user growth opportunities can be increasingly difficult.
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Regulatory Pressures: As a global company, Spotify faces different regulations in various countries. Changes in copyright laws, data protection regulations (such as GDPR), and anti-competitive scrutiny can impact operations and costs.
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User Retention and Churn: Maintaining user engagement and reducing churn rates are critical. With numerous alternatives available, user loyalty can be fragile.
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Technological Disruptions: Rapid technological changes, including shifts in consumer preferences for music consumption, can impact Spotify’s strategy. Innovations in AI, social media, and user experience need to be continuously monitored and adapted to.
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Dependence on Advertising Revenue: While Spotify has a strong subscription model, a significant portion of its revenue comes from ads. Economic downturns can impact advertising spending, affecting revenue stability.
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International Expansion Risks: Expanding into new markets comes with inherent challenges, including cultural differences, local competition, and varying regulatory environments. These factors can complicate growth strategies.
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Podcasting and Original Content Risks: Spotify's heavy investment in podcasting carries risks, including fluctuating audience interest and the uncertain monetization of original content. Success in this area is not guaranteed.
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Data Security and Privacy Concerns: As a platform that collects vast amounts of user data, Spotify is vulnerable to data breaches and privacy issues, which could damage its reputation and lead to legal challenges.
Navigating these risks effectively will be crucial for Spotify’s sustained growth and long-term success in the competitive landscape of music streaming.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Spotify Technology SA
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Spotify Technology SA
Current Assets | 7B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 6.1B |
Receivables | 776m |
Other Current Assets | 147m |
Non-Current Assets | 3.6B |
Long-Term Investments | 1.6B |
PP&E | 430m |
Intangibles | 1.2B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 330m |
Current Liabilities | 4.1B |
Accounts Payable | 738m |
Accrued Liabilities | 2.3B |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.1B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 1.8B |
Long-Term Debt | 1.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 28m |
Earnings Waterfall
Spotify Technology SA
Revenue
|
15.1B
EUR
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Cost of Revenue
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-10.8B
EUR
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Gross Profit
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4.3B
EUR
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Operating Expenses
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-3.5B
EUR
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Operating Income
|
813m
EUR
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Other Expenses
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-112m
EUR
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Net Income
|
701m
EUR
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Spotify Technology SA
EUR | |
Free Cash Flow | EUR |
In Q3, Spotify saw its Monthly Active Users (MAU) grow by 14 million to reach 640 million, and net subscribers increased by 6 million to 252 million. Total revenue rose 21% year-on-year to EUR 4 billion, with premium revenue up 24% due to subscriber growth and price increases. Gross margin achieved a record 31.1%, surpassing guidance by 90 basis points. For Q4, Spotify expects 665 million MAU and EUR 4.1 billion in revenue, projecting an operating income of EUR 481 million. The company remains focused on innovation while balancing growth and profitability, aiming for 20% annual revenue growth in the long term.
What is Earnings Call?
SPOT Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Spotify Technology SA's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Spotify Technology SA's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
SPOT Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Spotify Technology SA's solvency score is 85/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Spotify Technology SA's solvency score is 85/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
SPOT Price Targets Summary
Spotify Technology SA
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SPOT is 478.37 USD with a low forecast of 247.45 USD and a high forecast of 645.75 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for SPOT is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Spotify Technology SA is a digital music service offering music fans instant access to a world of music. The firm enables users to discover new releases, which includes the latest singles and albums; playlists, which includes ready-made playlists put together by music fans and experts, and over millions of songs so that users can play their favorites, discover new tracks and build a personalized collection. Users can either select Spotify Free, which includes only shuffle play or Spotify Premium, which encompasses a range of features, such as shuffle play, advertisement free, unlimited skips, listen offline, play any track and high quality audio. The firm operates through a number of subsidiaries, including Spotify LTD and is present in over 20 countries.
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The intrinsic value of one SPOT stock under the Base Case scenario is 205.6 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 475.04 USD, Spotify Technology SA is Overvalued by 57%.