Simon Property Group Inc

NYSE:SPG

Earnings Call Analysis

Funds from Operations Rise Amid Strong Leasing

Simon Property Group reports a robust third quarter with funds from operations hitting $1.2 billion or $3.20 per share, a notable performance underpinned by higher rental income that contributed $0.17 of growth. The company observed a year-over-year increase in domestic property net operating income (NOI) of 4.2% and portfolio NOI growth of 4.3%, including international properties. Occupancy rose to 95.2%, with base minimum rent up by 2.9%. Over 970 leases were signed to expectedly generate over $1 billion in revenue. A decrease in Simon Property's ownership in SPARC from 50% to 33% impacts FFO by $0.05 in Q4 after a lucrative deal with SHEIN. A fourth-quarter dividend of $1.90, up 5.6% year-over-year, has been announced, along with a share repurchase worth $140 million. Full-year 2023 FFO guidance has been raised to $12.15 to $12.25 per share, reflecting a $0.30 increase at the midpoint.

Financial Performance Highlights

The company's third-quarter funds from operation (FFO) were reported at $1.2 billion, translating to $3.20 per share. This reflects noteworthy achievements, including a rise in rental income that contributed an additional $0.17 per share compared to the previous year's corresponding quarter. There were also non-cash after-tax gains of $0.32 per share due to a partial divestment in SPARC and ABG. However, these positives were somewhat offset by a $0.07 per share increase in interest expenses and $0.15 lower contributions from other property investment platforms compared to the same period in the previous year.

Real Estate Portfolio and Dividend Update

The company's real estate business FFO per share in the third quarter was $2.91, an uptick from $2.83 in the last year's quarter. At the portfolio level, occupancy was strong, with malls and outlets at 95.2% occupancy, a 70 basis point increase year-over-year. The company also reported a dividend of $1.90 per share for the fourth quarter, a 5.6% increase over the year, and shared its share repurchase activities, totaling $140 million for approximately 1.27 million shares.

Leasing Momentum and Outlook

Lease signings remain vigorous with over 970 leases for approximately 4.3 million square feet in the current quarter. The first nine months of 2023 have seen the signing of over 3,500 leases for 15 million square feet. This is projected to generate over $1 billion in revenue. Tenant demand is robust across categories, evidenced by notable leasing activity and rising base rents, which have climbed 2.9% year-over-year for malls and outlets. Luxury retailers, despite some cautiousness, continue to expand, demonstrating the sustained importance of brick-and-mortar stores.

Investment Strategy and Redevelopment

In assessing the deployment of capital, the company compares the potential returns from property redevelopments and new developments against the returns from share repurchases. Given that the company's stock is perceived as an attractive investment, it maintains a high threshold for evaluating capital expenditures in development projects to ensure economic viability and measure against alternative uses of capital, like stock buybacks.

Assessment of Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics

The company noted that higher interest rates and inflation affect moderate-income consumers more starkly, prompting them to exercise caution. On the other hand, employment and wage growth have offset some of these pressures. The company's strategy reflects a cautious stance, with no expectation of a downturn but a projection of flat retail sales growth for the fourth quarter.

Revised Financial Guidance

The company revised its full-year 2023 FFO guidance from $11.85-$11.95 per share to $12.15-$12.25 per share, an increase of $0.30 at the midpoint.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Greetings. Welcome to Simon Property Group Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note, this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Tom Ward, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

[Thomas Ward, executive]

Thank you, Shery. Thank you for joining us this evening. Presenting on today's call is David Simon, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President. Also on the call are Brian McDade, Chief Financial Officer; and Adam Reuille, Chief Accounting Officer.

A quick reminder that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors. We refer you to today's press release and our SEC filings for a detailed discussion of the risk factors relating to those forward-looking statements.

Please note that this call includes information that may be accurate only as of today's date.

Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included within the press release and the supplemental information in today's Form 8-K filing. Both the press release and the supplemental information are available on our IR website at investors.simon.com.

Our conference call this evening will be limited to 1 hour. For those who would like to participate in the question-and-answer session, we ask that you please respect the request to limit yourself to one question.

I'm pleased to introduce David Simon.

[David Simon, executive]

Good evening, and I'm pleased to report our third quarter results. Third quarter funds from operations were $1.2 billion or $3.20 per share. Let me walk you through some of the highlights for this quarter compared to the same quarter of 2022. Domestic and international operations had a very good performance this quarter and contributed $0.17 of growth, primarily driven by higher rental income, noncash after-tax gains of $0.32 in the third quarter were related to the partial sale of our ownership interest in SPARC and ABG as a result of ABG selling primary shares in the quarter.

Higher interest expense was a setback of $0.07 year-over-year. We had a $0.15 lower contribution from our other property investment platform compared to Q3 2022 and a $0.02 loss on mark-to-market of publicly traded securities.

FFO from our real estate business was $2.91 per share in the third quarter compared to $2.83 in the prior period last year. So far, our real estate has produced $8.55 per share for the first 9 months compared to $8.40 from last year.

We are pleased with the transaction SPARC completed with Shein during the third quarter that demonstrated the value that we have created in that business. The transaction was significantly above our basis. And as a result, we recognized a gain in the corner. And the transaction ultimately reduced our ownership interest in SPARC from 50% to 33% as we admitted Shein as a partner. Given our lower ownership interest in the back-end weighting of profitability in the fourth quarter, we now expect $0.05 lower FFO contribution from SPARC in the fourth quarter of this year.

During the third quarter, the Taubman family exercised their put right on a portion of their interest in TRG. We exchanged $1.725 million partnership interest units for an additional 4% ownership interest, we now own 84% of TRG.

Domestic property NOI increased 4.2% year-over-year for the quarter and 3.8% for the first 9 months. Portfolio NOI, which includes our international properties at constant currency, grew 4.3% for the quarter and 4% for the first 9 months of the year. Mall and outlet occupancy at the end of the third quarter was 95.2%, an increase of 70 basis points compared to last year.

Our third quarter occupancy is higher than fourth quarter of last year, which has not occurred historically. The Mills occupancy was 97.4% and occupancy is above all year-end 2019 levels for all of our platforms. Average base minimum rent for malls and outlets increased 2.9% year-over-year, and the Mills was 3.6% year-over-year.

Leasing momentum continues across our portfolio. We signed more than 970 leases for approximately 4.3 million square feet in the quarter. Through the first 9 months of 2023, we signed more than 3,500 leases for 15 million square feet, which is expected to generate over $1 billion of revenue. We have an additional 1,100 deals in our pipeline, including renewals for another $400 million in revenue. We are seeing strong broad-based demand for retail community including continued strength from many categories.

Reported retail sales per square foot, the third quarter was $74 for The Mills and outlets combined and 676 for Mills. We continue to be active in redeveloping new development. During the quarter, we started construction on a significant redevelopment at Brea Mall and a new upscale outlet center in Jakarta, our first premium outlet in Indonesia.

We completed the refinancing of 11 property mortgages during the first 9 months of the year, for a total of $960 million at an average rate of 6%. We have -- our balance sheet is strong with approximately $8.8 billion of liquidity. Today, we announced a dividend of $1.90 per share for the fourth quarter, which is a year-over-year increase of 5.6%, the dividend is payable on December 29. And we also purchased approximately 1.27 million shares of our common stock for $140 million.

We are increasing our full year 2023 guidance from $11.85 to $11.95 to $12.15 to $12.25 per share. This is an increase of $0.30 at the midpoint.

So to conclude, I'm pleased with our third quarter results. Our business is performing well and is ahead of our plan. Tenant demand is strong, occupancy is increasing, base minimum rent levels -- rent levels are at record levels, and we are very experienced at managing our business through volatile periods of time and as you all know, this is when we do some of our best work.

So we're now ready for your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Ron Kamdem with Morgan Stanley.

[Ronald Kamdem, analyst]

Great. Just one on some of the guideposts you've given in the past, as we're flipping the calendar to 2024, you talked about sort of 3% organic growth as achievable. Just wondering how you're thinking about that and how we should think about potential interest cost headwinds as that sort of roles?

[David Simon, executive]

Sure. Look, I think -- we feel good about that kind of comparable NOI growth. Our debt is reasonably laddered. So yes, we'll have some interest expense headwinds, but we still think we'll end up growing our business next year with that said.

[Ronald Kamdem, analyst]

Great. and if I...

[David Simon, executive]

Go ahead, Ron.

[Ronald Kamdem, analyst]

I was just going to say if I can ask a follow-up just on the $0.30 guidance raise. I think you talked about $0.32 gain and then $0.05 lower from the retailers. Just wondering, is there any other sort of puts and takes that we should be mindful of?

[David Simon, executive]

Sure. No, we're going to have $0.05 lower because of the SPARC Shein deal. We lost a couple of cents from our mark-to-market on a couple of our public securities that we own last quarter. And essentially, the real estate business has been very significant to our growth and we'll kind of see where the fourth quarter ends up, but I think it's -- we'll -- our 97% of our business is going to outperform what we thought from originally what we had budgeted.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Caitlin Burrows with Goldman Sachs.

[Caitlin Burrows, analyst]

David, I know you gave some numbers on recent leasing activity, which sounds really strong. I was wondering if you could give some additional context maybe to how that leasing activity compares to recent and pre-pandemic years. Maybe what that means for pricing and how that could impact permanent occupancy?

[David Simon, executive]

Well, thank you, Caitlin. So I would say -- let me try and address your questions in no particular order. I think we'll be -- year-end occupancy will be obviously higher than it is today. I don't know that it will be our highest ever but it will be within distance pretty close. Even with all the volatility in the world and the market, we still expect -- we're still seeing demand very strong. I mean we're -- frankly, we're cautious. We're waiting for shoes to drop, but we haven't seen it on our new deals, whether it's F&B entertainment high-end luxury tenants, athleisure, just to name some categories, we're seeing -- we're still seeing a lot of demand on that front. And I would say from a pricing element.

We feel -- I would say, we feel comparable to the way we felt in the '15, '16, '17 era in terms of era, I guess, that was almost 7, 8 years ago, but a lot's happened over those 7 or 8 years. But we still feel like that's kind of -- we're in that good shape where we're driving rents up, and it's okay for the retailers. They're making deals and supply and demand is in our favor. Obviously, we cycled through a lot of poor performing retailers due to COVID. And the ones that we are doing new deals where they're excited to do to do business with us. So pricing is for sure going in the right direction, occupancy is going up and tenant demand is pretty strong across the whole spectrum.

And even in certain categories, just to take luxury, yes, there are some that are being more cautious, but there's plenty that are growing new stores. So it's really retail specific. Obviously, bricks and mortar through the pandemic to today has proven its value to retailers. I'm sure you hear that on the conference calls from retailers. So in that sense, we're making a lot of good stuff happen. Brian, did you have something on the occupancy?

[Brian McDade, executive]

I was just going to say we continue to see about 30% of our deals being new deals in the quarter. So that's consistent with the prior quarter as well. So there is definitely lots of activity on a new deal basis.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI.

[Samir Khanal, analyst]

David, maybe provide color on how your malls are performing versus outlets. Maybe from a regional standpoint, coastal non-coastal Sunbelt, just trying to see if there's any differences from a leasing standpoint.

[David Simon, executive]

Sure. It's interesting. I would say we're seeing pretty good tenant sales growth on the tourism properties, whether they're outlet or malls. Now the most of our pure tourist properties are really the outlet centers, and we're seeing good growth in that category.

Traffic generally is slightly above last year. Still slightly below '19, but obviously, conversion is way up because our sales are -- on a per square foot basis are much higher than '19.

I would say, generally, whether mall or outlet, the Sunbelt area has produced pretty good results in terms of sales year-to-date. We saw actually a decent pickup in California, which was encouraging, but really good growth in the Woodberry Common that is finally getting the tourism back to where it is. And apparel has been strong in the outlet business. There's no question people are looking for a little more value or maybe they're looking for a lot more value given the higher inflation that the consumers had to deal with.

Not a huge bifurcation between malls and outlets. It's very property specific. The different -- as you know, we reported flat sales basically quarter-over-quarter. And there's no real difference between outlets and malls in that number.

Luxury probably -- didn't probably. It did flatten out in the third quarter of this year for sure. But it wasn't across the board. It was more a couple of specific retailers had a tough Q3, others were up. So it was really a retailer-specific.

Jewelry -- malls may have a little more exposure to jewelry. So that was a category that took a little more on the chin yet some of our higher-end retailers in the jewelry category performed well.

So it was basically not a real trend. Let's say, the most important thing that come away with is that the SunBelt continues to perform well. And we're seeing the tourist centers kind of make a nice comeback. They've been lagging a little bit more than the others over time and a little bit of flat lining in the luxury category. Tom, Brian, anything you want to add?

[Brian McDade, executive]

I think you covered it, David.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler.

[Alexander Goldfarb, analyst]

So I'll do one question and I'll hold the follow-up. On -- as you guys gain leverage with the tenants, are you seeing tangible ability to get more favorable terms. One of the issues with retail over time has been the tenants, especially the larger tenants or the more anchor-ish or more fashion -- like the hot tenants of the day are driving lease terms traditionally. Curious if you're seeing a change in that, which would translate to an ability to accelerate rent growth, NOI growth, et cetera?

[David Simon, executive]

Well, we don't have -- I mean, thank you for the question, Alex. We're not that far away. What we see out here. We're really not that far away. But put that aside, we -- it's not a question of leverage over the retailers. I think what we have going for us is a great diverse portfolio. It's the best in the industry from Mills to our outlets to our full-price malls. And that's unique, it's size, it's scale, it's quality that we've built up over many, many years. And as you remember, I don't think it was last quarter, maybe it was Tom, but -- when we went through the transformation of the portfolio was the last quarter.

So we've done a lot to try to improve the quality of the portfolio. And I would say that, obviously, there's no -- not a lot of new retail being built. There's not a lot of retailers closing stores and -- or going bankrupt. And I think most retailers today know kind of the good malls and the good properties versus the not so good. And when you add that up, supply and demand is in our favor, and we're generating market rents. It's neither here nor there.

But importantly, importantly -- and I think I'd like to address this with you is that -- and again, I'm sure retailers have a different point of view. But I think they -- the most interesting fact that -- or the most interesting thing that we have going for us in addition to the quality, diversity, et cetera, that I mentioned, they know we're going to be around. So -- and they know that we'll stick to a deal, we'll make it happen. When we say we're going to redevelop something we do it.

And I think that when there are open to buys, we tend to get our fair share of those or more than because of some of the factors that I mentioned, quality, scale, but also the fact that they know we're going to get the job done. And obviously, there's been a lot of changes in mall ownership over the years. Balance sheet and quality of operations is a 2-way street. It's both -- as we look at retailers, we assess that. They certainly assess us. And I think that gives us an advantage that we worked very hard, as you know, to achieve.

And I -- how do I say this, I mean, we've really outpaced our peer group dramatically. And any measure you want growth, earnings, dividend, quality of operations, scale, balance sheet, the -- I know we all focus quarter-to-quarter and this and that. But if you take a step back and you go, what have you got going for yet, and again, we don't -- this sounds a little braggadocious. I don't want it to. But I mean, we've really outpaced if you look over the last 10, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 years we've dramatically outpaced our peer group. Thank you. No follow-up. I stumped you. I love it.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Jeff Spector with Bank of America.

[Jeffrey Spector, analyst]

Great. David, just want to tie in some of the leasing comments, the momentum you're seeing, the deals in the pipeline, the high occupancy levels to the redevelopment pipeline. And just, I guess, how are you thinking about that pipeline and the ability to increase that? Like how are you going to satisfy some of the needs out there and continue to capture that market share, maybe even more.

[David Simon, executive]

Thank you, Jeff. So look, I think we had the ability to develop and redevelop because we're not essentially what I said earlier, we're not -- listen, we've got to be stewards of capital. We got to be very focused. But we're not capital constrained the way some others might be. And our ability to invest in our portfolio is unmatched. So we intend to do that. Now at the same time, Jeff, rates are up, returns for us have to be up. And so you haven't seen a really big change in our 8-K redevelopment, but that takes time because a lot of the stuff was put in place.

But when we build something new or we redevelop, we're going to have to do a better job of leasing and returns and to warrant that capital because just about everything we do, I mean we still want to maintain our leadership position. But just about every amount of capital we spend, I have to measure it in my own mind against buying our stock back. And I mean, our stock, as you saw, we bought stock back. So our stock is pretty compelling. So we want to redevelop. We want a new develop, but we got a high hurdle that we've got to jump over.

So like we've done historically, I expect us to find the right balance between continuing and to maintain our leadership position, investing in our properties for the benefit of shareholders, communities, retailers alike. But at the same time, we got to be economic animals. And that's what -- everybody here understands that process, and that's what we try and achieve.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS.

[Michael Goldsmith, analyst]

David, you specifically mentioned the performance of the real estate business on this call several times [indiscernible] just been strong. At the same time, this quarter, you sold off some of SPARC. So how can you continue to refine some of the ancillary parts of the business so that the strength that we're seeing and that you're talking about on the core business can continue to show it through?

[David Simon, executive]

Well, listen, it's a very good question, and it's less and less of our business. As you know, it's under 5% of our earnings. You also have to understand that when we add to the -- when we add it to our FFO, it's net income, which in many of these cases, you don't add all of these cases, you don't add that depreciation. So EBITDA and our FFO contribution are much different. Importantly, these have all been profitable endeavors. But we understand that even the small amount of earnings that we get in comparison to our total earnings power is volatile. People don't like the volatility.

We'll -- like we did with SPARC earlier, we're going to continue to harvest our investments over time. And as we do that, we're going to -- if you ask me today, we'll monetize things over time, and we're going to buy our stock back because it's wildly accretive because -- let's look at it. You know what I trade at as a multiple of FFO. And I have investment value in these investments, but they give us very little earnings because of GAAP. And if you do the math, you could see the accretion we would get on a buyback.

So they're basically -- I get no earnings from them, but I've got value and it's our job to get the value into cash, take the cash, buy our stock back or invest in properties and have it a bygone era of the time. But with an asterisk that said, at a boy, you made a lot of money. So that's the strategy. I hope that answers your question.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Floris Van Dijkum with Compass Point.

[Floris Gerbrand van Dijkum, analyst]

David, so I was curious on TRG. So I noticed the occupancy gets a little bit -- you essentially -- you want increasing your ownership by 4% by issuing some OPUs. What price was the stock issued at? And what yields are you buying? What's the implied cap rate on the TRG business? And how should we think about that also as it relates to other potential opportunities in the market. And how much flexibility was there? And then maybe, I guess, in terms of the timing of the next sort of puts or hurdles that you have for increasing your interest in that business going forward?

[David Simon, executive]

Let me just talk to you about the exchange a little bit and then Brian can give you an idea. The occupancy is no big deal, but I'll have Brian go through that. So Taubman has the right to put their interest -- their 4% interest for the next 5 years. And it's basically had essentially appraised value. It's either a negotiation or we get appraisal firms and we decided to negotiate in good faith. We made a deal and then we issued the stock. And I mean the reality is we're trading -- Simon Property Group equivocally is trading below appraised value.

So one of the reasons we bought our stock back was -- I'm not a big fan of issuing stock at this moment in time. So we'll use our capital to basically get rid of the dilution that we did issue. Now Taubman had that right. They exercised it appropriately. We had a good faith negotiation, made a deal and it was more or less at their praise value.

And to put it in perspective for us at today's value, it's probably pretty close to where we negotiated our deal with Taubman pre-COVID and then obviously, we got the COVID adjustment, but it was in that range kind of where the deal was announced publicly. And so we're going to quarterize that dilution by buying our stock back. We started that once we made the deal. And I think the family is pretty smart. They said, Simon Property Group stock is undervalued, and I like the dividend and why not? So I think -- I don't know what will happen next year. Could be the same thing but at this point, they have 16% left in TRG.

We're happy to own 100% of TRG. I think they're happy to do what they're doing, and we'll deal with it as time goes on. But nothing can happen the rest of this year and it's sometime next year that this all recycles. So with that said, I hope that answers that, but I'll -- Brian, if you want to add anything to that, please?

[Brian McDade, executive]

Nothing on that. But Floris, on your question about their occupancy, it is back 110 basis points. There are really 2 major spaces that they had to take out of commission that they come back online in the fourth quarter. So you will see that come back on and then some in the fourth quarter. It's just simply timing.

[Floris Gerbrand van Dijkum, analyst]

Got it. And if I may -- if you don't mind, the -- if I recall correctly, if you look at my notes, but the cap rate at the time that you did the deal was -- had a [indiscernible] handle on it. Is that the right way to think about the appraised value for TRG?

[David Simon, executive]

Well, again, this was a negotiated deal. Their view of appraised value started much higher than that with all due respect for us, which you might imagine. But we settled on a deal that today, if you go back in time, to Taubman pre-COVID, would have attributed Taubman's per share number in the $51 range. So somewhere in that range we ended up, if you remember, during COVID at $43 a share. I will tell you that their NOI today is higher than it was in '19. Portfolios change here and there. So it's really hard to do an apple and apple. But at the end of the day, that gives you the sense of things, but you're not that far off. I think that's a reasonable estimate. But that kind of puts all the metrics out there.

And again, not a huge deal in the scheme of things under a couple of hundred million today. So -- but it gives you a perspective of kind of that. I think they would argue the praise value is much higher than what they exchange at. But we ultimately did not go through the appraisal process.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Vince Tibone with Green Street.

[Vince Tibone, analyst]

So minimum base rents were about 3% year-over-year, which is about the same level as contractual bumps. So I'm just trying to get a sense of leasing spread economics here. Like does that mean leasing spreads are also in the low single-digit range? Are there other factors influencing this metric one way or another?

[David Simon, executive]

Well, I mean, I'll see if Brian will add to it. And just remember, this is the total portfolio. So to move this thing up takes a lot, right? And spreads are just a moment leases that come in and go out. So you can't really look at it that way. So for us to move the entire portfolio gives you a sense of leasing spreads. Now if you look at whatever -- what page is on the 8-K, the new -- where we added some new information there on the 29 -- 21 that -- you'll see some of that -- some of these that are going in there now are driving the rent, the rent -- those numbers now include our new leases that are driving that base minimum rent up.

[Brian McDade, executive]

I mean we typically only touch about 10% of our leases a year, Vince. So you got to factor that in as well. So renewals are about 10%, but the balance is our new leases, which, as David said, are really driving the higher or contributing to the higher average base minimum rents.

[Vince Tibone, analyst]

But my -- was my statement fair though that contractual bumps for base rent are still around 3%? Or are they lower than that the overall portfolio?

[Brian McDade, executive]

No, they're right in that range, Vince.

[Vince Tibone, analyst]

And then just is there any color you can share about renewal spreads? And I know it's hard to move the overall portfolio with 10%. But this kind of conversation means they're not too far away from the average contractual bumps because if they were plus 30%, they [indiscernible] extreme example, like we could see that in the metrics. So I'm just trying to ultimately get some more color here renewal economics.

[David Simon, executive]

Yes. I mean, I guess, again, that in order to have the average base minimum rent go up for 20,000 leases, okay, of 3%. Versus 10% to 15% that calculate spread, you're going to be -- mathematically going to have rent spreads that are higher than the 3%. And we'll walk you through that later. But that -- just from a math point of view, there's just no way that, that can drive that number up, but we'll walk you through that. So when you say that, we would say to you that's not -- that's not reality because in order to drive up average base minimum rent 20,000 leases or thereabouts, you're going to have to outperform much more than the 3% on just what's rolling over.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank.

[Greg McGinniss, analyst]

David and Brian. I'll keep this to 1.5 questions for you. So last quarter, you spoke about potentially being more active with asset recycling or reallocating real estate capital. Have the challenges facing the financing market changed those expectations at all? Or how are you thinking about that today? And how are higher interest rates impacting your customers and tenants?

[David Simon, executive]

Well, it -- I'll take the last first. So I would say higher interest rates/inflations clearly is affecting a good portion of the consumer out there. So their affordability for -- and we're seeing this most on the consumer on what I'd call the kind of the more -- the brands that are focused on the more moderate income consumer. So there's no question that, that's having some impact. But the good news is you got employment and you got wage growth that is counter balancing that, but they're definitely being more cautious. So that's not necessarily affecting a higher-income consumer to the extent that you might otherwise think. But it's clearly affecting the lower or more moderate income consumer that they're being -- they're being more cautious.

And from our standpoint, from a retail point of view, demand, like I said earlier, we haven't seen it affecting retailers too much in terms of their growth plans. But we obviously monitor that every day. So from our standpoint, our cost of capital is up. So any investment we make, as I mentioned earlier, is in the -- is -- was measured against return we would get from buying our stock back, the return that we would get from redevelopment or development. And given that, that's why we haven't been active on the acquisition front, and I don't expect that to really change.

In addition, we're always looking at monetizing our assets, whether it's real estate or otherwise. And to the extent that we can make the math work, and we create liquidity through asset sales. The math is very compelling for us to do that to buy our stock back. And so you'll see more of that trend continue.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Mike Mueller with JPMorgan.

[Michael Mueller, analyst]

Just a quick one here. I know this is a bit of a hypothetical. But do you think you would have bought stock back if you didn't issue the shares to Taubman?

[David Simon, executive]

I think we would buy -- I'm sorry, the -- I think we're looking -- it's a good question, a fair question. And let me say this, the way I'm thinking about it. So to the extent that we have additional liquidity events or in the case of Taubman, dealing with the dilution of issuing stock at this price, there's no question we're going to buy our stock back. .

To the extent that we don't -- I don't have an answer for you yet on whether we would have done it absent the TRG issuance or enhanced liquidity from asset sales but like I said, our development pipeline -- redevelopment pipeline is very much, very much measured up against the stock buyback and every asset I've got, I don't have to own anything at this point. I'm happy to sell assets at the right price to buy our stock back. And I think you'll see more of that from us over time. And that could be real estate and/or other stuff.

[Michael Mueller, analyst]

Got it. Okay. And real quick, just in case I missed this, was there any change to the OPI guidance that's embedded in your current FFO outlook?

[David Simon, executive]

Yes. We've lowered it -- we've lowered it other than the -- you understand the $0.05 because we own less of SPARC. We have lowered it for the fourth quarter by roughly -- guys...

[Brian McDade, executive]

For the fourth quarter, it would be about $0.20.

[David Simon, executive]

Yes. Yes, roughly $0.20 in the fourth quarter.

[Brian McDade, executive]

Lower contribution.

[David Simon, executive]

Lower -- if you look in total for the year, and our share in that is roughly -- if you take out the $0.05, we've lowered it about $0.15.

[Craig Mailman, analyst]

Our next question is from Craig Mailman with Citigroup.

[Nicholas Joseph, analyst]

Nick Joseph here with Craig. David, you've talked a lot on the share buybacks, it sounds like in your answer to the last question, you're open to asset sales and other monetization opportunities. What are you seeing in the transaction markets today in terms of those asset sales? Where are cap rates? What's the buyer pool like? And are you seeing an opportunity to try to crystallize some of that disconnect between the stock price and where you would hope to sell an asset?

[David Simon, executive]

Well, look, I think domestic retail is not a lot of transactions, but we have assets throughout the world. That's one. Two is, obviously, we've got investments in our OPI category. But frankly, domestic assets other than maybe some of our residential stuff, hotel stuff, there's just not a lot happening. And we might see some stuff, but I think that won't be really driving kind of the activity that we would anticipate.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Linda Tsai with Jefferies.

[Linda Yu Tsai, analyst]

About 6% of ABRs on month-to-month leasing and then 12% expiring for '24. How much of the month-to-month is getting converted to permanent or should that number grow? And then in terms of the 12% expiring in '24, what's been addressed from a renewal standpoint from where you stand today?

[David Simon, executive]

Yes, I know that there's a number of leases in '23 that are basically agreed to. We're just finalizing the documentation. So that's the first. And I would think that generally, we're more than halfway through 24s right now on a kind of a negotiated not papered basis. So Brian, I don't know if you want to add anything to it, but that would be -- that's kind of where we are generically.

[Brian McDade, executive]

And Linda, you can see the material change Q2 over to Q3. We've cleared about 2.2 million square feet out of that category. It's just a matter of processing. We talked about it on our last call. There's just a lag effect in the processing of those leases. So we do expect that to continue.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho.

[Haendel St. Juste, analyst]

Dave, I just had a quick follow-up on the consumer retail sales line of question from earlier. I think you noted your portfolio sales were flattish during the quarter. We've heard from other sectors, storage apartments, which seemed like the consumer hit a bit of a wall during the third quarter in September. I'm curious if you saw anything within the quarter, maybe in September of that sort and then perhaps what's your expectations in the near-term outlook for retail sales for your portfolio and the consumer as we head into the holiday season of next year.

[David Simon, executive]

Sure. Well, generally, as we said earlier in the year, we expect to be more or less flat. So that's kind of what our expectations continue to be in terms of retail -- reported retailer sales. Again, we feel pretty good about the higher-income consumer. We've also got a balancing act in terms of some of our value-oriented centers will maybe play a more important role for our consumer today that they might not have otherwise played last couple of years.

But it's unknown. I mean I -- we're being extra cautious because of the inflation is still a little bit there, still taking a bit out of the consumer. And obviously, you've got rates that are beginning to filter through the economic system. So cautious, flat. We're not anticipating a downturn. But not a robust sales growth for the fourth quarter, relatively flat.

[Haendel St. Juste, analyst]

Got it. I appreciate that. If I could squeeze in a follow-up. I think you mentioned earlier as well that you started, I think it was $960 million of new redevelopment at 6% yields and you talked about a higher hurdle rate. Maybe some color on perhaps what that hurdle rate today is and where the next batch of redevelopment yields or projects would need to be and where we continue to migrate soon?

[David Simon, executive]

Sure. Yes, I think the -- it's a little bit dependent upon the real estate. So -- and what we're trying to accomplish and what the benefits of that real estate are and where the market is for that. So for instance, when we build a new residential apartment house. We look at kind of where the value and the cap rates for that are. They may be obviously lower than our own, but to the extent that we feel like we might sell it and make the arbitrage, we'll do that.

Again, if we're -- we got an asset that's a 6 cap rate. We're building to an 8, that's creating value. On the other hand, if we have an 8 asset that's -- we're building to a 6. It isn't going to happen. So there's no -- there's -- we have themes, we have points of view, but just like anything else, every transaction, we do every redevelopment we do really is grounded by what we're trying to accomplish with that real estate.

So -- but overall, again, like I said earlier, we've got to push it higher because our cost of capital regardless is up across the board. So we don't have the luxury to build dilutive deals. And as you know, we've never really bought dilutive. We've never really built dilutive, and we certainly don't anticipate in doing that today. We've always had a spread through our financing and to the quality of what we've built. We expect that to continue, but that obviously, those thresholds have been raised.

[Operator]

Our final question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets.

[Juan Sanabria, analyst]

Saving the best for last, I love it. Just curious if you could comment on kind of the watch list you've commented about the consumer, but maybe what the bad debt has been year-to-date with the historical levels is in your perspective as you think about '24?

[David Simon, executive]

The watch list on retailers?

[Juan Sanabria, analyst]

Yes, sir.

[David Simon, executive]

Yes. It's relatively low. There are a couple that were there today that probably weren't there last year. Obviously, I'm not going to name those. So it certainly hasn't grown all that much but there are 1 or 2 retailers that we're paying close attention to. And I probably wouldn't have said that last year. So I think that -- I mean, it's not a very good answer, but it's probably the best way to explain it without naming names, but there are a couple on that list today that didn't exist yesterday, but they're not 10 names. There are a couple. Brian, do you want to add anything?

[Brian McDade, executive]

No, I think that's right, David. We've -- it has certainly expanded, but by only 2 or 3 names. And it's at a relatively low point relative to history.

[David Simon, executive]

Yes. And I want to just confirm with everyone that, that is -- as you look at our -- what page is our top tenant list on?

[Brian McDade, executive]

22.

[David Simon, executive]

22. You know, it's certainly none of the category that is in our top 10 or top 20. So -- and as you know, our department stores don't pay -- really don't pay all that much. Well, you have the rent there in terms of what they pay.

[Operator]

We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Simon for closing comments.

[David Simon, executive]

Well, thank you, and we finished a little bit early. So I think enjoy the rest of the evening.

[Operator]

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.