Synovus Financial Corp
NYSE:SNV
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Synovus Financial Corp
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Synovus Financial Corp
Synovus Financial Corp. entered 2023 focusing on executing its core business strategies. These strategies included productivity gains, expanding the client base, and enhancing financial performance, complemented by growth in new initiatives and talent acquisition. Despite some economic challenges, Synovus delivered healthy loan growth, particularly in commercial business lines like middle market and corporate investment banking. They also witnessed a surge in deposit production and maintained top quartile efficiency.
The last quarter of 2023 saw Synovus reporting adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.80, which would have been $1.06 if not for the $51 million FDIC special assessment. This adjustment underscores an otherwise stronger financial performance. Over the year, net interest income increased 1%, and despite an 11 basis point margin contraction, loan volume increased 3% thanks to the strength in various commercial lending segments.
Synovus managed to increase its adjusted noninterest revenue by 11% in 2023, even as it faced a challenging mortgage market and scaled back on certain fees. This growth was driven by multiple fee-generating services, including Treasury & Payment Solutions, Capital Markets, and Wealth Management. GreenSky also contributed to this revenue increase, demonstrating a robust diversification of income streams.
Synovus has maintained solid asset quality with net charge-offs at manageable levels. The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio improved from the prior year, indicative of a strong capital profile, and the bank’s prudent management approach is set to continue into 2024. With strategic goals focused on growth, client relationships, and profitability enhancement, the bank appears well-positioned for the future.
The bank grew its core deposit balances, which allowed a reduction in more costly funding sources. Nevertheless, the average cost of deposits rose, hinting at potential pressure on the bank's funding costs, though this is expected to peak soon. Synovus is committed to keeping its net interest margin stable in the upcoming quarter with an anticipation of expansion in the latter half of the year.
Synovus reported a noninterest revenue of $126 million, factoring in one-time fees and increasing contributions from different revenue streams, including its partnership with GreenSky. Securities losses and noninterest expenses affected earnings in the fourth quarter, yet Synovus anticipates noninterest revenue to grow, including ongoing quarterly revenue from the GreenSky relationship.
Looking ahead to the first half of 2024, Synovus expects net charge-offs to range from 30 to 40 basis points. The capital planning for 2024 includes maintaining a steady dividend, managing capital levels within the targeted range, and a share repurchase program of up to $300 million, affirming the bank’s positive outlook on its financial health and capital adequacy.
Synovus is guiding for a loan growth between 0% and 3% and core deposit growth of 2% to 6% for 2024. Revenue growth is projected to range from a decrease of 3% to an increase of 1%, assuming a flat interest rate environment. In contrast, noninterest expenses are expected to decline, contributing to an overall acceleration of core pre-provision net revenue growth throughout 2024. The tax rate is expected to hover around 21% to 22%, and these projections are cautiously optimistic, accounting for potential interest rate fluctuations and economic conditions.
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Good morning, and welcome to the Synovus Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]
Please note, this event is being recorded. And I will now turn the call over to Jennifer Demba, Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good morning. During today's call, we will reference the slides and press release that are available within the Investor Relations section of our website, synovus.com. Kevin Blair, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, will begin the call. He will be followed by Jamie Gregory, Chief Financial Officer, and we will be available to answer your questions at the end of the call.
Our comments include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and the actual results could vary materially. We list these factors that might cause results to differ materially in our press release and in our SEC filings, which are available on our website. We do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements because of new information, early developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law.
During the call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures related to the company's performance. You may see the reconciliation of these measures in the appendix to our presentation.
And now, Kevin Blair will provide an overview of the quarter.
Thank you, Jennifer. Entering 2023, our primary corporate goal was summarized as focused execution. That objective was rooted in delivering productivity gains within our core businesses, allowing us to deepen relationships, grow our client base and enhance financial performance.
And secondarily, continuing to accelerate the contributions generated through our new growth initiatives and adding talent in key businesses and markets to expand our presence and profitability.
We made steady progress in these areas, which led to solid growth and built on our foundation to deliver healthy and consistent earnings and tangible book value growth over time. In the midst of executing on our plan, we were presented with unforeseen challenges, and our Synovus team acted quickly and decisively in order to mitigate risk and better position the bank for a more challenging liquidity and economic environment.
Despite a more challenging environment, we produced healthy and consistent loan growth in key commercial business lines, including middle market, corporate and investment banking and specialty lending. Corporate and Investment Banking, which was officially launched in mid-2022 continues to prudently grow and execute, with over $650 million in loans outstanding and became PPNR positive in the middle of last year. Also, our team was laser-focused on accelerating our core funding generation through sales activities, product expansion and specialty businesses. As a result, we delivered an 83% increase in total deposit production in 2023.
We delivered strong double-digit growth in adjusted fee income in '23 as our Treasury & Payment Solutions, Capital Markets and Wealth Management teams continue to expand their contributions, supported by new solutions, analytics and an intense focus on building full relationships. Also, we further augmented and diversified our noninterest revenue stream with an expanded balance sheet light relationship with GreenSky. We maintained top quartile efficiency through proactive expense rationalization and disciplined cost management while continuing to make the investments in areas that will drive long-term shareholder value.
On the asset quality front, we continue to experience very manageable levels of credit losses and see no systemic deterioration across our asset classes and footprint.
Finally, the balance sheet was strengthened in 2023 from solid core deposit growth and a reduction of office commercial real estate loans and higher cost wholesale funding. We also increased our Common Equity Tier 1 ratio to over 10% through solid earnings accretion and prudent balance sheet optimization. Moreover, the business mix was streamlined with the sale of our asset management firm, GLOBALT, which enables us to reallocate investment into higher returning business lines.
Now let's move to Slides 3 and 4 for an overview of the fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial highlights. Synovus reported 2023 fourth quarter diluted earnings per share of $0.41, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.80. For 2023, we reported $3.46 in diluted earnings per share and $4.12 in adjusted EPS. However, the $51 million FDIC special assessment reduced fourth quarter reported and adjusted earnings per share by $0.26. Therefore, excluding the FDIC assessment, fourth quarter reported EPS would have been $0.67 and adjusted EPS would have been $1.06.
Higher funding costs and loan losses were headwinds for the banking industry in 2023. But in this challenging environment, Synovus was able to grow core deposits, core noninterest revenue and maintain disciplined expense control. Even with the challenges and excluding the FDIC special assessment, adjusted preprovision net revenue increased about 2% last year.
Net interest income grew $20 million for the year or roughly 1%, despite an 11 basis point margin contraction. Excluding strategic loan sales of $1.6 billion in 2023, period-end loans increased about 3%, led by C&I business lines, including middle market, CIB and specialty lending.
Despite muted activity, CRE also experienced year-over-year growth driven by increased utilization on previously committed construction facilities. There continues to be an increased emphasis on stronger returns and more deposit relationship-based lending, and we are pleased with the increased margin and relationship profitability profile of the 2023 originations.
On the funding side, total core deposits increased 3%, and total borrowings declined 57% in 2023. Our fourth quarter net interest margin of 3.11% was stable quarter-over-quarter and better than our prior guidance as a result of modestly lower-than-expected core interest-bearing deposit costs.
Also, we were able to reduce higher cost funding in broker deposits and FHLB borrowings due to the continued success of our deposit production activities. We remain confident that our net interest margin has reached a positive inflection point and should be relatively stable in the first quarter. A more stable monetary policy environment, coupled with fixed rate asset repricing should support the NIM as we progress throughout 2024 and provide a multiyear tailwind for net interest income. Despite continued headwinds from a soft mortgage environment and intentional reductions in checking program fees, adjusted noninterest revenue increased 11% in 2023, supported by increases in Treasury & Payment Solutions fees, Capital Market fees and Wealth Management fees as well as higher GreenSky income.
Noninterest expense remains well contained. Our proactive cost rationalization and management initiatives have placed Synovus in a strong position as we start 2024. In this uncertain environment, asset quality remains healthy. Excluding our loan sales, net charge-offs were a manageable 38 basis points in the fourth quarter and 28 basis points for the full year.
Nonperforming assets increased at a slower pace over the last 3 months and we further built the allowance for credit losses.
Finally, we continue to focus on maintaining a strong capital position as we navigate through a more uncertain economic environment. And with our CET1 position ending the quarter at 10.22%, up from the 9.63% a year ago, we remain confident in our capital profile and well within our targeted capital levels of 10% to 10.5%. We continue to make consistent progress in diversifying and optimizing our business mix with growth in several key areas, including middle market, commercial banking, CIB, Treasury & Payment Solutions, Capital Markets, Banking as a Service and Wealth Management. These are the core businesses where we have shown the right to win, and through execution and expansion, will deliver solid revenue growth well into the future.
Our talent is what truly differentiates Synovus. Our key objectives for the team in 2024 are, one, prudently growing the bank; two, winning full relationships; and three, enhancing profits. We are committed to delivering on these objectives while preserving and even improving key elements of our safety and soundness profile. I have great confidence in our ability to not only meet our goals, but also to outpace our competition.
Now I'll turn it over to Jamie to cover the quarterly results in greater detail.
Thank you, Kevin. As you can see on Slide 5, total loan balances ended the fourth quarter down $275 million sequentially or about 1%. While loans declined modestly, overall trends were positive as key strategic business line saw growth and transaction-related declines signaled a return to more normal commercial real estate market activity. There were 3 primary drivers of the modest sequential decline in loans. First, loan production has been softer over the past few quarters. Also, CRE and Senior Housing market transaction activity increased significantly over the last 3 months due to property sales and refinancings, which we believe shows more strength in those markets.
Finally, strategic declines in nonrelationship syndicated lending and third-party consumer loans continued in the fourth quarter, further positioning our balance sheet for core client growth. While C&I loans declined $182 million sequentially during the fourth quarter, there was strategic growth in middle market loans, CIB and specialty lines. These commercial loan categories also saw growth for the full year. With regards to commercial real estate, excluding the $1.2 billion medical office building sale last quarter, we generated approximately 7% loan growth last year, primarily from fund ups of existing commitments.
We continue to prioritize clients, both new and existing, with broad-based deposit and fee income relationships. At the same time, we are rationalizing growth in credit-only lending areas such as shared national credits and third-party consumer lending that have a lower return profile or don't meet our strategic relationship objectives. As a result of higher loan paydown activity and muted production, we expect to see a reduction in Senior Housing and Institutional Commercial Real Estate this year. Our organic balance sheet optimization efforts will continue in 2024 as we focus on balanced loan and core deposit growth.
Turning to Slide 6. Core deposit balances grew $714 million or 2% sequentially during the fourth quarter, driven by a 9% increase in time deposits, and a 4% increase in interest-bearing demand deposits, which was partially offset by a 5% decline in noninterest-bearing deposits. Seasonality contributed to public funds growth of $464 million or 7% on a sequential basis, and the pace of noninterest-bearing declines remains below the level experienced during the peak in early 2023.
Our strong fourth quarter core deposit growth allowed us to reduce broker deposits by $179 million and overall borrowings by about $670 million, resulting in continued improvement in our wholesale funding ratio to 13.5% from 15.1% in the third quarter. As we look at funding costs, our average cost of deposits increased 19 basis points in the fourth quarter to 2.5%. As a result, our cycle-to-date total deposit beta was 45%, which was just below the range we communicated at an industry conference last month. From October to December, total deposit costs were up 6 basis points. We continue to expect the deposit costs will peak sometime during the first quarter.
Now moving to Slide 7. Net interest income was $437 million in the fourth quarter, a decline of 1% from the third quarter, which is slightly better than our previously disclosed expectations. Our net interest margin was stable during the fourth quarter versus a 9 basis point sequential decline in the third quarter. Better-than-expected core interest-bearing deposit costs, reduced borrowings and increasing earning asset yields supported the margin. The partial securities repositioning, which was completed in December, had an estimated 1 to 2 basis point impact in the fourth quarter, with an incremental 3 to 4 basis points benefit expected in the first quarter.
As we look forward, assuming a stable rate environment, we continue to expect the first quarter net interest margin to be relatively stable, followed by expansion in the second half of the year. Longer-term, the benefits of fixed asset repricing remain a significant tailwind to the margin. Our sensitivity profile remains relatively neutral to the front end of the curve, and we remain slightly asset sensitive to longer-term rates. However, during an easing cycle, the margin will exhibit short-term pressure due to the timing lag between loan and deposit repricing.
Slide 8 shows total reported noninterest revenue of $51 million. Adjusted noninterest revenue was $126 million, up $20 million or 19% from the previous quarter. The sequential variance in fee income was due to a onetime GreenSky fee of $12 million related to its legacy loan portfolio as well as stronger Treasury & Payment Solutions and non-GLOBALT wealth fees. With the expansion of our relationship with GreenSky, we anticipate onetime related fees of about $5 million in the first quarter and approximately $5 million in an ongoing quarterly noninterest revenue thereafter, which is currently reflected in our fundamental guidance.
There were $78 million in security losses during the fourth quarter, which we had previously announced in December. Also, the GLOBALT sale at the end of the third quarter reduced noninterest revenue by approximately $2.4 million. We continue to invest in core noninterest revenue streams that deepen our client relationships and have all demonstrated healthy growth this year. Treasury & Payment Solutions fees were up 11%, while Wealth Management fees increased 11%, and Capital Markets fees grew 21%. In fact, Syndicated Finance and debt Capital Markets fees jumped over 100% in 2023.
Noninterest revenue has also been impacted by a soft mortgage lending market as well as recent changes to our checking program. However, the bank's relative stability of core client fee income over time highlights the diversity of our revenue streams, many of which are insulated from the impacts of the volatile rate environment.
Moving to expense. Slide 10 highlights our ongoing operating cost discipline. Reported and adjusted noninterest expense was $353 million in the fourth quarter. The $51 million FDIC special assessment inflated fourth quarter reported and adjusted noninterest expense. Without that expense, adjusted noninterest expense would have declined 1% from the third quarter. In September, we took prudent expense rationalization actions that will still allow Synovus to appropriately invest for infrastructure needs and future growth. Adjusted employment expense was down 4% sequentially and year-over-year, benefited by headcount reductions during the fourth quarter as well as lower performance incentives.
Finally, the recent GLOBALT sale reduced expense by about $2 million in the fourth quarter. As you can see on Slide 11, total head count is down 9% from 2019. Over that same period, revenue has increased 14%, resulting in an increase in revenue per FTE of 25% and a top quartile efficiency ratio. Our sharp focus on operating expense discipline and prudent discretionary spend will continue throughout 2024 as we manage through headwinds that pressure industry earnings.
Moving to Slides 12 and 13 on credit quality. Credit metrics were relatively stable from the previous quarter, adjusted for the third quarter loan sales with a net charge-off ratio of 0.38%, an NPL ratio of 0.66%, and a total criticized and classified loan ratio of 3.45%. The allowance for credit losses increased by $4 million to $537 million or 1.24% of total loans, up 2 basis points from the third quarter. We continue to expect NCOs of the average loans to be 30 to 40 basis points in the first half of 2024, and we have a high degree of confidence in the strength and quality of our loan portfolio. Moreover, we will continue to apply conservative underwriting practices and advanced market analytics to new loan originations and portfolio monitoring and management.
As seen on Slide 14, our capital position improved during the fourth quarter with a Common Equity Tier 1 ratio reaching 10.22%, and total risk-based capital now at 13.07%. Capital accretion was impacted by the FDIC special assessment and the securities losses during the fourth quarter. But as was the case throughout 2023, our core earnings profile continues to support our capital position. Looking ahead, our 2024 capital plan includes a stable common dividend and prioritizing prudent capital management within our target range of 10% to 10.5%. Similar to 2022 and 2023, and we have authorization for up to $300 million in share repurchases in 2024.
I'll now turn it back to Kevin to discuss our 2024 guidance.
Thank you, Jamie. I'll now continue with our updated financial guidance for 2024, which is unchanged from the expectations we outlined in early December.
Loan growth is expected to be between 0% and 3% in 2024. Growth should be driven by continued success in middle market, corporate and investment banking and specialty lending business lines. This growth should be partially offset by market-related loan paydowns, which are expected to return to more normalized levels and rationalization of credit-only loan relationships. We maintain our expectations for core deposit growth of 2% to 6% despite a challenging and uncertain industry-wide growth environment, we have confidence that our focus on core deposit production and expansion of relationships will continue to bear fruit in 2024.
The adjusted revenue growth outlook continues to be in a range of negative 3% to 1%, which assumes a flat interest rate environment. The recent volatility in interest rates has shown the uncertainty and the outlook for rates. The reduction in loan rates to the 4% area, if maintained, would impact our revenue outlook for 2024 negatively by approximately 1%. However, considering this impact, our outlook remains within the current revenue guidance. It is uncertain how 2024 will play out with regards to Fed interest rate policy, but we expect 2 things to be true. First, it's a short-term negative for net interest income and margin during the easing cycle as deposits reprice slower than loans. And second, over the longer-term, we are relatively neutral to the short-term interest rates. So the margin is expected to revert back to the starting point and likely higher once the easing cycle is completed.
Adjusted noninterest expense, which includes the fourth quarter FDIC special assessment is expected to decline between 1% and 5% in 2024 from a combination of several initiatives, including personnel and business optimization, back-office and corporate real estate rationalization and less discretionary and third-party spend. We will continue to be very disciplined in expense management while investing in areas that deliver long-term shareholder value. The result of expanding NIM and controlled expenses is forecasted acceleration of core PPNR growth throughout the year. Assuming a stable economic environment, we expect to end 2024 with strong growth and financial performance and an eye towards our longer-term operating metric targets.
Moving to capital, we are within our CET1 range of 10% to 10.5%, and we'll opportunistically manage our capital levels within this target range, dependent on forecasted economic conditions. We anticipate the tax rate should approximate 21% to 22%, primarily supported by additional tax credit investments and further diversification of our revenue sources. Synovus' strategic actions in 2023 as well as the strength of the business model and the relative growth of our footprint have positioned the company for strong long-term revenue, earnings and tangible book value growth.
And now operator, let's open the call for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Jon Arfstrom from RBC Capital Markets.
Just wanted to go back -- Kevin, you touched on it and Jamie as well. But on the revenue growth guide and your interest rate assumptions, when I look at that guidance range, what takes you to the lower end of that range and the higher end of that range? Is this mostly interest rate driven? And what is kind of built into that guidance in terms of the short-term rate variance?
Yes, Jon, this is Jamie. As we think about volatility in revenue in 2024, the risks and opportunities are actually fairly similar to each other. It comes from things like deposit mix, economic activity and the Fed interest rate policy. So you know that our guidance is basically a flat rate scenario. So we have no Fed easing in the guidance. We have the long end staying stable at 4%.
But within that, using those assumptions, we would say that the biggest risks and opportunities come from deposit mix, economic growth, loan growth, business growth, we would say those kind of present both risks and opportunities to 2024.
Okay. And at this point, if you think about the forward curve in terms of your net interest income outlook, how much of a headwind is that, Jamie? How difficult is that environment?
Yes. We debated a good bit how to best give insight into our performance in 2024 given the volatility of interest rates. We decided to keep the front end stable but then speak to the impact based on the easing cycle just so people could use whatever rate scenario they deem most appropriate because the assumptions change weekly. If you compare where we were even a couple of weeks ago, the assumptions for Fed easing are very different than where they are today.
But for us, as Kevin mentioned in his guidance, comments just a minute ago, longer-term, we are neutral to the front end of the curve. And what we mean by that is that when we come out of the easing cycle and deposits normalize to the lower levels, we expect our margin to be relatively similar to where it was when we entered the cycle. But during the cycle that -- the lag on deposit costs relative to loan yield declines will reduce the margin. And that's dependent on a few things. The impact of 2024 is dependent on the timing of easing, when does the Fed begin the easing cycle, the speed of the easing and how far does it go.
But when we think about the impact to our margin, we think that, that impact during the easing cycle could be anywhere between 2% and 4% reduction in the margin. And then again, we would revert back to the starting point once those deposit costs stabilize at the end of the easing cycle. So the timing is very important, the speed is important, the depth is important. But those -- that's generally how we see that impact. With regards to a full year 2024 revenue guide, it could be anywhere up to 2.5% of full year revenue, given the scenarios we've seen from economists, markets, Fed dot plot, et cetera.
But there are other things that are not included in that guide. One is, in an easing cycle, it's likely that, that will be a positive impact to deposit mix shifts. And that's not included in my comments here and our expectations. It also doesn't account -- take into account the associated positives to economic growth, fee revenue as well as credit.
Okay. Good. That's all very helpful.
Our next question today comes from Michael Rose from Raymond James.
I wanted to go to -- I wanted to go to Slide 8, and maybe if you can just, Kevin, expand on the tailwinds and headwinds that are on the chart and then how we should frame up expectations for the GreenSky expanded partnership as we move forward as it relates to the outlook for the year?
Yes, Michael, when we look at the slide, I think it speaks to the diversity of our revenue and how we've continued to try to add new sources of growth that allows us to take on some of the headwinds. And so whether it's the sale of a business or just reducing our NSFOD income or seeing a movement on products like Repo, where we've been very successful with this last year. If you look at the left-hand side of that chart, Banking as a Service is GreenSky, which we're continuing to work through the contractual -- finalizing the contract there, and we still expect that to represent a sizable increase in income in 2024.
But also within Banking as a Service, we're expanding our offerings within our merchant acquiring company where we own a majority interest, [indiscernible] pay, we've expanded our sponsorship of third-party ISOs. And so all of those Banking as a Service programs will contribute growth year-over-year.
Treasury & Payment Solutions, if you look at the last 3 years, we've grown at 20%. We expect that to continue to increase in 2024 with some repricing opportunities as well as continued expansion of our sales practices.
Wealth was up 11% this past year, with AUM growing 8%. We expect that to continue to grow based on the talent and the success of our business model.
Capital markets, as we've expanded CIB in our wholesale bank, we've continued to grow. That's up 20% in '23, and that will continue to grow in '24.
And then we've seen some traction on some of the government guaranteed gains, whether that's USDA or SBA loans.
And so when you look at all of those, it will help to offset those headwinds, and we think we'll get a little bit of growth in NIR this coming year as a result of that.
That's great color. And maybe just as my follow-up. I appreciate all the color related to Jon's questions. But I just wanted to dig into some of the mix shift comments that you mentioned, Jamie. And then how quickly do you guys think you would be able to kind of pull down some of the interest-bearing deposit costs, assuming we do get a couple of rate cuts this year? I think that's a pretty big outstanding question for you and a lot of banks.
Yes. It's one of the bigger questions on the industry for 2024 for sure. When you -- well, first, in our assumptions, we assume that NIB declines further in 2024 to somewhere between 23% and 24% of total deposits. But to your question on interest-bearing costs, we really break it up into 4 buckets. And so -- or 3 buckets, excluding NIB.
We have what we call the kind of high beta systematic repricing, which would include broker deposits in our core CD portfolio, those reductions, the broker deposits are near 100 beta, and time deposits reprice pretty systemically -- systematically given maturities schedule. So that's pretty simple.
But then you have the interest-bearing nonmaturity deposits. And what we have is, for us, about 30% of total deposits are standard rates. And those reprice through decisions we make centrally. And the rates on those deposits are lower within our interest-bearing deposits. And so the beta will be a little lower, but the repricing is simpler than the exception price deposits exception around 20% in total, those are higher cost. And so we do expect the beta to be lower, but they involve a conversation. And so we're already focused on strategies of how do we address that subcomponent of the deposit portfolio, but we're ready to go, and we're prepared for the easing cycle.
Our next question comes from Steven Alexopoulos from JPMorgan.
Sorry to ask your third NIM question in a row, but I think clarity would be important here.
And I know, Jamie, there's scenarios that are changing every day. But if you just look at the current forward curve, say, 6 cuts, you guys are guiding under flat rates to get to a 3.20% NIM in 4Q '24. How does that change if the forward curve plays out?
I think you need to look to the prior comment around a 2% to 4% compression of the margin during the cycle, depending on how fast it's going. But if you assume a steady 25 cuts per meeting, I would just assume that the margin contracts somewhere between 2% and 4% in the fourth quarter.
2% to 4% down, got it. And your commentary is interesting about eventually returning to where the NIM used to be, and your NIM used to be $3.60 to $3.80. Do you think with a normally slow yield curve? I know it's been 20 years since we've had one at normal rates, you could get back into that range?
So when we look further out, when we didn't include it in this deck, we've included it in our 2 prior investor decks, the fixed rate asset repricing. The benefit due to fixed rate asset repricing in 2024 is approximately 20 basis points. And you could run that forward for 2025 and 2026. It doesn't go forever, but it does go for the next few years.
And so we think that, that is a really strong tailwind. Now there are headwinds that are not included in that, and one would be deposit mix and other would be business mix as far as loan spreads and where you're originating loans. But that tailwind is there. And so we do believe that when we get through whatever this easing cycle is, however it plays out, that we continue to have a strong tailwind to the margin for multiple years, and we expect to see that play out, and that would get us in the context of what you're describing with higher what's kind of historically more normalized margin.
Got it. Okay. Can I ask 1 other question. So you guys had 3% core revenue growth, 2023, really strong fee income growth. And, if I look at the guide, you're down 3% plus 1. When I think about the company, your markets, your position, I think back to the Investor Day, all the initiatives, when I look at this, really for you, Kevin, are you pleased with that level of growth? And is it that I perceive you to be more of a strong organic growth company, but you're more about improving efficiency, if you will. Just curious on your take on the revenue capabilities of the company here this year.
Yes. I think the percent growth in revenue is much more of a function of the decline in the NIM from first quarter to fourth quarter. And so when you look at a full year-over-year increase in revenue, it shows that negative number. But when you look at it more on an inflection point, you go back to fourth quarter earnings from '23 versus fourth quarter of '24, what you'll see is that there's an 8% to 10% growth in PPNR. And I think that's what does get me excited, and it really does show the strength of our model, Steve, and our footprint and our ability to grow.
But what you're seeing, when you look at year-over-year, is much more of the financial metrics, declining in margin during '23, which makes that year-over-year comparison look muted. But when you look at it on a more apples-to-apples basis, fourth quarter versus fourth quarter, you're looking at 8% -- 10% growth in bottom line, which I think, again, is much more constructive and supporting of our growth story.
Our next question today comes from Brady Gailey from KBW.
I just -- my first question is on GreenSky. I understand the somewhat onetime in nature income that happened in 4Q and that will happen in 1Q.
But as you look longer-term, what is the earnings impact that GreenSky could add to Synovus. And I think all that is realized in fee income, correct?
It is, Brady. And look, I said this on a previous call, the number could be between $20 million and $30 million in revenue for the go-forward program. And it's really a function more so of what the underlying production is of the new entity. And so we'll continue to generate revenue based on that production, and we'll get a maintenance administration fee on anything that still sits on the book.
So our revenue will be much more tied to the production volumes that they're doing. But again, I think a good rule of thumb for this coming year is $20 million to $30 million.
Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then Kevin, as you look bigger picture, there's been so much change at Synovus over recent years. I know just in 2023, you exited medical office and auto, you did the bond restructuring. Are you happy with where the business sits right now? Or are there other big strategic moves that we should be expecting going forward?
Look, I'm happy with where our business mix sits today. I think there are opportunities to continue to overinvest in certain businesses, whether that's our middle market platform, our private wealth platform, our Banking as a Service. And so you'll see us continue to make strategic investments in those areas.
But as it relates to things like loan sales or exiting businesses, I think those -- you will not see a lot of that going forward. And when you look at our loan slide we provided this quarter and you look at where we grew, some of those strategic growth engines like middle market, specialty, community bank are growing, where you see strategic declines in things like our third-party consumer, which will continue to decline for the foreseeable future as well as national accounts. Those won't be sales, but there'll be slow drawdowns of those balances because they're not obviously, relationship focused.
But the wildcard on growth really comes in those market activity declines that we saw this past quarter where you see institutional CRE where payoffs are increasing because they've been at historically low levels or Senior Housing same thing. We're seeing a more constructive marketplace for sales and refinance activity with some of the agencies.
And so as I look at the business and just put loans on that as an example, I feel really good about where we are. We'll be growing some faster than others. We'll be strategically shrinking some portfolios, but you won't see the dramatic balance sheet or business mix optimization like we've seen in '23.
Our next question comes from Brandon King from Truist Securities.
So previously, CD repricing will start to be a headwind to NII and the margin. I guess that's still the case, short-term. But could you give us an update on your CD strategy going forward as we potentially enter an easing cycle?
Well, look, Brandon, on CD strategy, we still have a lot of renewing CDs that will come forward in the coming quarters. And so we're going to again to be very aggressive pricing those CDs at market rates to keep them on the books. Obviously, the marginal rate of a new CD, when you look at this past quarter, it was [ 440 ] when you combine production and renewals, which was actually down about 20 basis points versus the previous quarter.
And so it shows you that there's been a little bit of a rationalization in the marketplace from a competitive perspective, but our portfolio is at about [ 416 ] today. So as we continue to produce new CDs, which again, appears to be the decision of the consumer, people are still moving money from money market accounts into time deposit. And so we want to make sure that we pay attention to the consumer preference. So we'll continue to produce that.
But at some point, that portfolio will largely equal where the production is. So it will be less of a headwind as it relates to deposit pricing. And as Jamie has mentioned in the past, the real benefit that we'll have to reach maximum deposit pricing will be deposit mix. So as we continue to bring down brokered and we can replace that with core deposits, the negative impact, that headwind you face with CD production will be offset by a positive shift in mix. And so that's why we think, in the first quarter, we'll largely see the peak for deposit pricing.
And Brandon, just add a little more to that answer. The first quarter, the core CDs that are maturing, the average rate is just over 4%. That's about [ 405 ], and so the marginal impact of that to the margin is much less than it was in the fourth quarter, as Kevin mentioned. And then as we look forward in 2024, our core deposit growth will be led by money market in 2024, which will be a little bit of a change from 2023. And so we believe that, that will also be a positive when you think about total deposit costs going forward.
Very helpful, very helpful. And then, Jamie, just give us an update on how you're thinking about managing the balance sheet this year with regards to your liquidity position and maybe the potential to pay down more debt.
As we look at the balance sheet, our liquidity position is very strong. The efforts we made in 2023 have positioned us really well for 2024, so we can go out there and do what we do best, which is serve our clients. And so that -- that's how we feel heading into this year. What you should expect to see from us is a continued paydown or attrition of our broker deposit portfolio, potentially $250 million to $500 million here in the first quarter. We are very low on Home Loan Bank advances at the moment, a little less than $1 billion at year-end.
So as we look forward, we think that we are positioned to optimize the liability side of the balance sheet. We don't have any imminent needs for unsecured debt, and we think that we'll continue to try to be balanced on core deposit growth, which will be more back-end loaded this year. And core loan growth, which could be more balanced growth throughout the year.
So we may have a little bit of a funding gap between loans and deposits early in the year, but that's not unexpected.
Our next question comes from Timur Braziler from Wells Fargo.
Maybe asking Brandon's question a little differently. So wholesale funding went from 15% to 13.5%. You continue to work that down. I guess, ultimately, as you continue working on the liability side of the balance sheet, where is the target there? Where could that wholesale funding ratio continue to migrate towards?
We're very comfortable with where it is right now. We're comfortable with our liquidity altogether. And so it's really just a balancing. That's not a ratio that we manage to. And so we look at all of our higher cost sources of funding, including the marginal public funds, and we think about how do we optimize our liability mix to fund the balance sheet. But we have a lot of sources of liquidity. We have a lot of sources of liquidity that are higher cost. And right now, given our liquidity position, we have the luxury of being able to run those down. But as we look forward into 2024 and beyond, it's our intent to go out and take advantage of the opportunity in the Southeast.
And as Kevin mentioned in response to Steven's question, go out and grow and deliver Synovus to more and more clients. And so we believe that we are well positioned for that, and whether or not we fund that with priority one being core deposit growth. But beyond that, we have a lot of availability either in wholesale funding, which would include broker deposits or Home Loan Bank advances or even go out and grow some of those easier marginal sources of liquidity like public funds.
Okay. Got it. And then switching to the loan side. So you had the medical office sale earlier in the year, you're working down balances in Senior Housing. I guess, one, what's your remaining exposure? What is your exposure to kind of the health care, medical field? And then two, as you look at it from a credit standpoint, where are you guys at as far as credit quality and things to look for primarily within that Senior Housing portfolio?
Well, look, from a health care perspective, you have to look at it really across 2 different areas. On C&I, it's about 7% of our balances and a lot of that is on the Senior Housing side. We talk about managing down our exposure there, it was really more around the fact that we've seen more payoff activities. And so we feel really good about where we are in Senior Housing. When you look at some of the losses that we incurred this quarter, there were a handful of losses, and Bob can touch on that. But we feel very good about the overall exposure. And so we're not trying to manage down our exposure in health care. Some of it has been just the fact that we've started to see a more constructive market in terms of payoff activity.
And put that in a broader perspective, when we talk about that, we had about $1.2 billion in payoffs this past quarter. We've been running about $700 million to $800 million a quarter in our loan book. So about $500 million more in payoffs. If you look at a 3-year average, we generally run about $1.3 billion in payoff activity. So we're back to a more normalized level. So you could continue to see things like Senior Housing and some other CRE portfolios decline, just given the fact that production has slowed and payoff activities picked up.
Bob, if you want to touch on some of the credit metrics.
Sure. Yes. Specifically to the Senior Housing metrics, 90% of our portfolio in that space is still pass-rated credit. So we have a fairly low ratio of rated loans there. Charge-offs have been small and manageable, and nonaccrual loans also -- are also small. And specifically, the shrinkage there to Kevin's point of really the market -- the payoffs beginning to pick up, and the net effect of that would just be a reduction in that specific portfolio.
Overall, though, we're pretty comfortable with health care as an industry. We have a specialty vertical in our Corporate and Investment Banking business that specializes in health care, it's just that the Senior Housing portfolio itself, it's a lot of real estate characteristics, it's probably seeing some reduction relative to the increase in payoffs, but the credit quality certainly still remains [ manageable ].
Next question comes from Christopher Marinac from at Janney Montgomery Scott.
I wanted to dive into the deposit growth and the success you're having there. Kevin or Jamie, can you give us additional background in terms of where that growth is focused? Are you looking at the sort of standard customer, using Jamie's explanation a few callers ago, or even would you take on a new exception customer if it sort of fit your objectives?
As we think about deposit growth, it's a very important component to our outlook for 2024. But before speaking to this year, I'd like to speak to 2023 because we had 3% core deposit growth in 2023 with significant headwinds in the first half of the year, including the $2 billion decline in non-interest bearing deposits.
And I think that, that shows the strength of our production. I mean production was up 83% year-over-year. And that strong production is basically a result of renewed focus, driving deposit growth, incentive realignment. And we think that, that will continue. And we think that, that's what is the underpinnings of our core deposit growth forecast for 2024.
And so we have -- our incentives are pushing it. We have the intentional build-out of our business aligned around bringing in the full client, which will include increased deposit growth. We have a new leader in private wealth focused on full relationships. CIB is growing, and they've hired a liquidity specialist who's partnering with new and existing clients to help bring liquidity solutions to our commercial clients. And our commercial lines of business continue to target clients with full balance relationships. And one data point on that is in our middle market business, we had 8% core deposit growth in 2023.
And so we believe that fundamentally, we're well positioned to grow deposits this year, and we think that, that should see continued success.
Great. Do you think that lower rates could actually trigger more C&I-related movements on your business?
Well, #1, it could trigger line utilization increasing just as rates come down. We did see a modest increase in just same line balances this past quarter. But as you know, Chris, for the last several quarters, we've seen folks using their cash to pay down lines. So I think lower rates will drive up some line utilization, one.
Short-term, if rates are going lower, it tells us that the economy is slowing. So there may be a latent impact to that. But longer-term or more moderate term, yes, I think it could drive up C&I as people are looking at projects again and starting to expand their facilities or add inventory as prices come down and the economic -- the underlying economic conditions remain constructive. Yes, it would result in having stronger loan growth in that kind of the out quarters.
We will now take a question from Russell Gunther from Stephens.
I just have a couple of points of clarification on the margin commentary. So first, the 4Q '24 outlook of around 3.20%, that's down from the 3.25% expectation earlier in the month despite the better result in 4Q '23. So could you just walk us through what's changed?
That is simply the reduction in the long end of the curve. So that's the move from 4.5% [ tenure ] to a 4% tenure. That drove the decline from 3.25% to 3.20%.
Okay. Excellent. And then just to follow up again then on the 2% to 4% decline using the forward curve. So are you guys talking relative to the margin on a percentage basis? Or is that NII dollars? And then are you guys thinking of the starting point as the 4Q '23 result or relative to your 4Q '24 expectation?
Around point on the 2% to 4%, and that's a 2% to 4% reduction in the margin, so 6 to 12 basis points is -- if you assume, if you want to assume that the Fed begins easing in May, you could assume that the Q3, whatever you had in there for your Q3 margin, would be 2% to 4% lower. And so that's kind of how we're thinking about it.
Just because the assumptions continue to change around when do this easing cycle start and how aggressive is it, we just wanted to give you something so that you could plug in whatever your expectation is, and then just know that once we're in that cycle, that is what we expect the impact to the margin to be.
Our final question comes from Brody Preston from UBS.
Jamie, I just wanted to, again, just clarify, that was a 6 to 12 basis points. Is that per cut that you're kind of saying on a static balance sheet?
No, no. That's not per cut. That's just during the cycle. That's our expectation of where the margin will be as we progress through the cycle.
Okay. Okay. So it would be if the forward curve comes to pass, it's 6 to 12 basis points off of the 3.20% that you're kind of outlining as the spending point for the NIM by the fourth quarter?
Yes. And within that range, you could say that the more aggressive the Fed is, so if they're growing faster, then it's going to be at the higher end of the range, the larger negative impact. And if it's a slow, methodical, it could be the lower end of the range.
Got it. Okay. And within your -- within the guidance, kind of setting the forward curve aside, what are you including for broker deposit runoff?
We are assuming -- I mentioned the $250 million to $500 million this quarter, and then you would assume -- probably not the high end of that range each quarter going forward, but maybe $200 million to $400 million Q2 to Q4 decline in broker deposits.
Okay. Cool. And then I just want to ask one last one on the other income. I know that GreenSky, the $12 million was in there. But setting the GreenSky aside, it looks like it was still a decent quarter for the other income line item. And so I just wanted to ask, what drove that? And is it sustainable? And for the guidance for low single-digit growth in fee income, could you just remind us what base that is growing off of?
The -- in other income, there's a little bit of that, that is not necessarily repeatable. We had about a $3 million increase in BOLI revenue in the fourth quarter versus prior quarters. And so that's something.
As we think about fee revenue in the first quarter, there are 2 headwinds. You have that $3 million, then you have the impact of the GreenSky fourth quarter transaction that will not reoccur in the first quarter.
What was the second part of your question, Brody?
Just the low single-digit growth in fee income that I think you called out on the slide. Just remind me what the base that you're growing that off of is?
We had adjusted fee revenue for this year, what was that, 4 -- right at $460 million.
It is. Yes, that's right.
The $460 million.
$461 million.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Kevin Blair for any closing remarks. Thank you.
Thank you, Drew, and thank each of you for your attendance this morning as well as your questions and continued interest in Synovus.
I also want to once again thank all of our team members for your contributions in 2023, from meaningful progress on important priorities and strategic investments to the solutions delivered and the exceptional client experiences, you make it happen on a daily basis.
While we received the 2023 #1 ranking in customer satisfaction and trust in the Southeast from J.D. Power, our goal is to raise our client service levels even higher in 2024 and beyond.
As we cast our eyes towards 2024, we are embracing a new mantra, Grow the Bank. This signifies our shift back to a growth mindset after a year where external challenges necessitated a more defensive stance. However, our pursuit of growth will be marked by prudence and will be fully aligned with our strategic goals and objectives.
We will cultivate growth by amplifying the client experience, streamlining touch points and continuing to be more proactive at providing valuable advice to our clients.
In addition, our model facilitates delivering seamlessly across our lines of business and products and solutions, which will allow us to further deepen our relationships and increase our share of wallet.
At the same time, we're committed to preserving and even improving key elements of our safety and soundness profile here at Synovus, starting with improving our core deposit base to retaining levels of capital that put us in a strong position relative to our peers. And lastly, delivering credit metrics that prove the efforts taken over the last several years to diversify and fortify the balance sheet, especially during periods of economic stress.
As we recommit to this growth journey, we will continue our efforts to derisk and enhance our profile amidst continued market uncertainties. Therefore, Grow the Bank in 2024 signifies our intent to build an even stronger, more client-focused and risk-resilient bank, well equipped to navigate the complexities that will continue to present themselves this year and in the years to come.
As always, we look forward and appreciate your continued partnerships, and we look forward to meeting with many of you this quarter at upcoming industry conferences.
With that, operator, we will now conclude our earnings call.
Thank you. That concludes today's Synovus 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your lines.