Post Holdings Inc
NYSE:POST
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one POST stock under the Base Case scenario is 165.63 USD. Compared to the current market price of 115.8 USD, Post Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 30%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Post Holdings Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Post Holdings Inc. is a dynamic player in the consumer packaged goods sector, primarily focused on the production and marketing of ready-to-eat breakfast cereals, refrigerated and shelf-stable foods, and nutritional products. Founded in 1895 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, the company has evolved over the years, growing its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and a commitment to innovation. Notably known for brands like Grape-Nuts, Honey Bunches of Oats, and the iconic Malt-O-Meal, Post has successfully repositioned itself to meet the changing preferences of consumers seeking healthier, convenient, and diverse food options. As health and wellness trends continue to shape marke...
Post Holdings Inc. is a dynamic player in the consumer packaged goods sector, primarily focused on the production and marketing of ready-to-eat breakfast cereals, refrigerated and shelf-stable foods, and nutritional products. Founded in 1895 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, the company has evolved over the years, growing its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and a commitment to innovation. Notably known for brands like Grape-Nuts, Honey Bunches of Oats, and the iconic Malt-O-Meal, Post has successfully repositioned itself to meet the changing preferences of consumers seeking healthier, convenient, and diverse food options. As health and wellness trends continue to shape market dynamics, Post Holdings has invested in both expanding its product offerings and enhancing distribution channels to capture a wider audience.
For investors, Post Holdings represents a compelling opportunity driven by strong market fundamentals and robust growth potential. The company has cultivated a solid financial foundation, with consistent revenue growth bolstered by its diverse product lines and expanding market reach. In recent years, Post has strategically entered the protein sector, capitalizing on the rising demand for nutritious foods, which not only complements its existing offerings but also positions it favorably against competitors. With a focus on innovation, financial discipline, and adaptability within a rapidly changing food landscape, Post Holdings is not just a legacy player in the breakfast market; it is redefining its narrative as a forward-thinking company poised for sustainable growth in the years to come.
Post Holdings Inc. is a consumer packaged goods holding company that operates in several core business segments. Here’s an overview of the primary segments:
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Cereal: This segment includes a wide range of breakfast cereals under various brand names. Post Holdings produces both cold and hot cereals, with well-known brands such as Grape-Nuts, Honey Bunches of Oats, and Pebbles.
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Eggs: Through its subsidiary, Post Holdings operates in the egg sector, producing and marketing refrigerated and frozen egg products. This segment is involved in both retail and food service markets.
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Refrigerated Retail: This segment encompasses a variety of refrigerated and frozen food products, including plant-based protein products and ready-to-eat meals. Brands like Michael’s and Al Fresco fall under this category.
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Nutrition: The nutrition segment focuses on supplements and protein products, including Premier Protein and Quest Nutrition. This segment caters to health-conscious consumers and is involved in the production of protein bars, powders, and drinks.
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Private Label: Post Holdings also offers private label products for various retail partners. This segment includes a broad array of food products, capitalizing on the growing trend of retailers offering store-brand items.
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International: Although primarily focused on the North American market, Post Holdings also markets certain products internationally, expanding its reach and diversifying its revenue sources.
These segments allow Post Holdings to leverage its manufacturing capabilities, diversified product lines, and strong brand presence to cater to different consumer needs in the food industry.
Post Holdings Inc. possesses several unique competitive advantages that contribute to its standing in the food and consumer packaged goods industry:
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Diverse Product Portfolio: Post Holdings has a broad range of products, including cereals, snacks, and refrigerated foods. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations in a single category and allows the company to capitalize on various consumer trends.
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Strong Brand Recognition: The company owns well-known brands like Grape Nuts, Honey Bunches of Oats, and Post Consumer Brands. Strong brand equity allows Post to maintain customer loyalty, enabling premium pricing and reduced price sensitivity.
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Strategic Acquisitions: Post has a history of strategic acquisitions, such as the purchase of MOM Brands and the expansion into the refrigerated foods sector. This enhances their market positioning and minimizes competition by consolidating market share.
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Vertical Integration: Post has integrated its supply chain, which helps reduce costs and improve efficiency. Control over production and distribution lowers vulnerability to external disruptions and helps ensure product quality.
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Focus on Innovation: The company actively invests in product development and innovations, responding to changing consumer preferences for health-conscious and on-the-go options. This agility allows Post to stay relevant in a competitive market.
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Robust Distribution Network: Post Holdings has established a solid distribution network that ensures efficient delivery to a wide range of retail channels, enhancing product availability and customer access.
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Sustainable Practices: Increasingly, consumers favor brands that practice sustainability. Post’s commitment to responsible sourcing and sustainable production methods helps attract environmentally conscious consumers.
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Financial Stability: Backed by solid financials, Post can invest in research and development, marketing, and acquisitions, maintaining a competitive edge in the market.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Post Holdings Inc. can effectively differentiate itself from rivals and position itself for sustained growth in the dynamic consumer packaged goods landscape.
Post Holdings Inc. faces several risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Market Competition: The food industry is highly competitive, with numerous well-established brands vying for market share. Competition from both established players and new entrants can impact Post's pricing power and market position.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues, including shortages of raw materials and increased shipping costs, can affect production and profitability. The recent disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and pandemics have highlighted vulnerabilities in supply chains.
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Regulatory Challenges: The food industry is subject to various regulations regarding health and safety, labeling, and sustainability practices. Changes in regulations can increase compliance costs and impact operational flexibility.
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Consumer Preferences: Shifts in consumer preferences towards healthier, organic, or plant-based foods could require Post to adapt its product offerings. Failure to respond to these trends may lead to a loss of market share.
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Economic Conditions: Economic fluctuations, including inflation and changes in disposable income, can influence consumer spending on food products. Economic downturns may lead to reduced sales or a shift towards lower-cost alternatives.
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Product Recalls and Safety Issues: Any products recalled due to safety concerns can damage the company's reputation and lead to financial losses. Effective risk management and quality control measures are crucial to minimize this risk.
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Acquisition Integration: Post has engaged in several acquisitions to enhance its portfolio. Successfully integrating these acquisitions and realizing synergies can be challenging and may not always meet initial expectations.
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Brand Diversification Risks: While diversification of brands can reduce risk, it also means Post must manage a broader range of products and maintain brand identities effectively. Missteps in brand management can alienate customers.
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Technological Changes: Keeping pace with technological advancements in food production, marketing, and distribution is critical for competitiveness. Failure to innovate or invest in technology can put Post at a disadvantage.
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Environmental Concerns: Increasing focus on sustainability and environmental impact may require Post to invest in more sustainable practices, which could lead to increased costs in the short term.
By addressing these risks effectively, Post Holdings can position itself for continued success in the competitive food industry landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Post Holdings Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Post Holdings Inc
Current Assets | 2.2B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 787.4m |
Receivables | 582.9m |
Other Current Assets | 861.3m |
Non-Current Assets | 10.6B |
PP&E | 2.3B |
Intangibles | 7.8B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 464.2m |
Current Liabilities | 944.9m |
Accounts Payable | 483.8m |
Accrued Liabilities | 41m |
Other Current Liabilities | 420.1m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 7.8B |
Long-Term Debt | 6.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1B |
Earnings Waterfall
Post Holdings Inc
Revenue
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7.9B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-5.6B
USD
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Gross Profit
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2.3B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-1.5B
USD
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Operating Income
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800.9m
USD
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Other Expenses
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-434.2m
USD
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Net Income
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366.7m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Post Holdings Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In the fourth quarter, Post Holdings achieved consolidated net sales of $2 billion, a 3% increase, bolstered by acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA reached $349 million, primarily driven by resilient pricing and improved cost controls. The foodservice segment grew 5% and volume by 4%, while the refrigerated retail sector saw a slight volume growth of 1%. Looking forward, the company anticipates FY '25 adjusted EBITDA between $1.41 billion and $1.46 billion, with quarterly earnings expected to remain stable. However, some segments like Weetabix may lag due to ERP transitions. Overall, Post is focused on capturing growth through strategic asset utilization and enhancing their premium brand offerings.
What is Earnings Call?
POST Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Post Holdings Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Post Holdings Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
POST Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Post Holdings Inc's solvency score is 34/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Post Holdings Inc's solvency score is 34/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
POST Price Targets Summary
Post Holdings Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for POST is 127.5 USD with a low forecast of 106.05 USD and a high forecast of 147 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for POST is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
POST Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri and currently employs 10,735 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2012-01-27. The company operates in the center-of-the-store, refrigerated, foodservice, food ingredient and food categories. The firm's products are sold through a variety of channels, including grocery, club and drug stores, mass merchandisers, foodservice, food ingredient and e-commerce. Its businesses include Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Michael Foods and Bob Evans Farms. Post Consumer Brands business manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and Peter Pan peanut butter. Weetabix produces and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products and muesli. Michael Foods and Bob Evans Farms are in refrigerated foods, delivering egg and refrigerated potato side dish products to the foodservice and retail channels. The company also participates in the private brand food category through its investment with third parties in 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one POST stock under the Base Case scenario is 165.63 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 115.8 USD, Post Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 30%.