Post Holdings Inc
NYSE:POST

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Post Holdings Inc Logo
Post Holdings Inc
NYSE:POST
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Price: 115.8 USD 2.54% Market Closed
Market Cap: 6.8B USD
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one POST stock under the Base Case scenario is 165.63 USD. Compared to the current market price of 115.8 USD, Post Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 30%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

POST Intrinsic Value
165.63 USD
Undervaluation 30%
Intrinsic Value
Price
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Base Case
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Post Holdings Inc

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

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Business Breakdown

Post Holdings Inc. is a dynamic player in the consumer packaged goods sector, primarily focused on the production and marketing of ready-to-eat breakfast cereals, refrigerated and shelf-stable foods, and nutritional products. Founded in 1895 and headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri, the company has evolved over the years, growing its portfolio through strategic acquisitions and a commitment to innovation. Notably known for brands like Grape-Nuts, Honey Bunches of Oats, and the iconic Malt-O-Meal, Post has successfully repositioned itself to meet the changing preferences of consumers seeking healthier, convenient, and diverse food options. As health and wellness trends continue to shape marke...

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Post Holdings Inc

Current Assets 2.2B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 787.4m
Receivables 582.9m
Other Current Assets 861.3m
Non-Current Assets 10.6B
PP&E 2.3B
Intangibles 7.8B
Other Non-Current Assets 464.2m
Current Liabilities 944.9m
Accounts Payable 483.8m
Accrued Liabilities 41m
Other Current Liabilities 420.1m
Non-Current Liabilities 7.8B
Long-Term Debt 6.8B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 1B
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Post Holdings Inc

Revenue
7.9B USD
Cost of Revenue
-5.6B USD
Gross Profit
2.3B USD
Operating Expenses
-1.5B USD
Operating Income
800.9m USD
Other Expenses
-434.2m USD
Net Income
366.7m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Post Holdings Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

In the fourth quarter, Post Holdings achieved consolidated net sales of $2 billion, a 3% increase, bolstered by acquisitions. Adjusted EBITDA reached $349 million, primarily driven by resilient pricing and improved cost controls. The foodservice segment grew 5% and volume by 4%, while the refrigerated retail sector saw a slight volume growth of 1%. Looking forward, the company anticipates FY '25 adjusted EBITDA between $1.41 billion and $1.46 billion, with quarterly earnings expected to remain stable. However, some segments like Weetabix may lag due to ERP transitions. Overall, Post is focused on capturing growth through strategic asset utilization and enhancing their premium brand offerings.

What is Earnings Call?
Fundamental Scores

POST Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Post Holdings Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive 3-Years Revenue Growth
Positive Gross Profit
Positive Free Cash Flow
Positive 3-Year Average ROE
52/100
Profitability
Score

Post Holdings Inc's profitability score is 52/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

POST Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Post Holdings Inc's solvency score is 34/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Short-Term Solvency
Long-Term Solvency
Average D/E
Low Altman Z-Score
34/100
Solvency
Score

Post Holdings Inc's solvency score is 34/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

POST Price Targets Summary
Post Holdings Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast POST stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for POST is 127.5 USD with a low forecast of 106.05 USD and a high forecast of 147 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
106.05 USD
8% Downside
Average
Price Target
127.5 USD
10% Upside
Highest
Price Target
147 USD
27% Upside
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Dividends

Post Holdings Inc
does not pay dividends
Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for POST is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

Shareholder Yield
Dividend Yield
No dividends
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Debt Paydown Yield
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Ownership

POST Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
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POST News

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Profile

Post Holdings Inc Logo
Post Holdings Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Food Products

Market Cap

6.8B USD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

Post Holdings, Inc. operates as a consumer packaged goods holding company. The company is headquartered in St. Louis, Missouri and currently employs 10,735 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2012-01-27. The company operates in the center-of-the-store, refrigerated, foodservice, food ingredient and food categories. The firm's products are sold through a variety of channels, including grocery, club and drug stores, mass merchandisers, foodservice, food ingredient and e-commerce. Its businesses include Post Consumer Brands, Weetabix, Michael Foods and Bob Evans Farms. Post Consumer Brands business manufactures, markets and sells branded and private label ready-to-eat (RTE) cereal and Peter Pan peanut butter. Weetabix produces and distributes branded and private label RTE cereal, hot cereals and other cereal-based food products and muesli. Michael Foods and Bob Evans Farms are in refrigerated foods, delivering egg and refrigerated potato side dish products to the foodservice and retail channels. The company also participates in the private brand food category through its investment with third parties in 8th Avenue Food & Provisions, Inc.

Contact

MISSOURI
St. Louis
2503 S Hanley Rd
+13146447600.0
www.postholdings.com

IPO

2012-01-27

Employees

10 735

Officers

President, CEO & Director
Mr. Robert V. Vitale
Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer
Mr. Matthew J. Mainer
Executive VP and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Jeff A. Zadoks
Executive VP, General Counsel, Chief Administrative Officer & Corporate Secretary
Ms. Diedre J. Gray
President of Foodservice
Mr. Mark W. Westphal
President & CEO of Post Consumer Brands
Mr. Nicolas Catoggio
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Senior VP & Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. Bradly A. Harper
Senior Vice President of Integrated Supply Chain for Bob Evans Foods & Michael Foods
Mr. Steve Schonhoff
Strategic Advisor
Ms. Sally Abbott
Head of Environmental, Social & Governance
Maureen Mazurek
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See Also

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What is the Intrinsic Value of one POST stock?

The intrinsic value of one POST stock under the Base Case scenario is 165.63 USD.

Is POST stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 115.8 USD, Post Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 30%.

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