Park Hotels & Resorts Inc

NYSE:PK

Earnings Call Analysis

Solid growth continues for Park Hotels amid challenges.

Park Hotels reported a 3.3% year-over-year growth in RevPAR for Q3, driven by strong demand from group and business sectors. Significant growth was noted in cities like Chicago and New Orleans, with RevPAR rising 14%. Upcoming renovations in Hawaii and other strategic projects aim to enhance property value. The company anticipates continued positive trends, targeting mid-single-digit revenue growth for Q4, backed by robust leisure demand. However, disruptions from labor negotiations and hurricanes have affected forecasts, keeping full-year guidance unchanged. The dividend remains at $0.25 per share, targeting 65%-70% of adjusted FFO per share in line with historical payouts.

A Solid Performance despite Challenges

In the third quarter of 2024, Park Hotels & Resorts reported a commendable revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth of 3.3%, backed by strong business fundamentals. This growth occurred even amidst temporary disruptions caused by adverse factors affecting demand in select markets during August and September. The portfolio's resilience was underscored by healthy business and group transient demand, offsetting weaker leisure trends in some locales. Key urban markets such as Chicago, New Orleans, and Boston experienced notable RevPAR increases of 14% owing to busy convention calendars.

Growth in Key Markets

The company's strategy to diversify its portfolio paid off as 11% RevPAR growth was recorded in several resort destinations, including Orlando, Miami, and San Diego. Standout performances were observed in Orlando's Bonnet Creek complex, which reported a remarkable 22% RevPAR growth, largely due to increases in group bookings. Key West's Casa Marina resort boasted a staggering 130% RevPAR growth in the same period, reflective of its ongoing renovations providing a compelling experience for guests.

Strategic Development Initiatives

Park Hotels is actively pursuing further development opportunities in prime locations like Hawaii, Key West, Santa Barbara, and Miami. The company anticipates that these investments can yield attractive returns similar to those observed in their recent redevelopment projects. Notably, they are investing over $200 million in comprehensive renovations at various properties, including the iconic Rainbow Tower at Hilton Hawaiian Village and Hilton Waikoloa.

Adjustments in Guidance and Market Conditions

Looking ahead, the company refrained from updating its full-year 2024 RevPAR and EBITDA guidance due to ongoing labor union negotiations and weather-related challenges impacting operations. However, year-to-date RevPAR for 2024 stands at a positive 4.3%, affirming confidence in the underlying strength of both leisure and business demand. The management is optimistic about returning to stable levels in the future, forecasting that Japanese tourist numbers will recover gradually, reaching pre-pandemic levels by 2026-2027.

Capital Allocation Strategies

Park Hotels remains committed to reshaping its portfolio by divesting non-core assets and recycling capital into higher return investments. The sale of two non-core hotels generated over $40 million, with plans to use the proceeds for share buybacks and funding renovations. The company emphasizes that investing in its core portfolio represents an effective strategy for creating long-term shareholder value.

Resilience Amidst Weather Disruptions

The impact of recent hurricanes was minimal with the hotels remaining operational. Overall estimated disruptions from Hurricane Helene and Milton amount to $2 million to $3 million for hotel adjusted EBITDA. This illustrates the company's resilience in facing weather-related challenges while maintaining service continuity.

Future Outlook and Expectations

The company anticipates a mid-single-digit growth for RevPAR in the fourth quarter, underpinned by solid booking trends heading into the busy holiday season. Despite uncertainties, management remains optimistic about the core portfolio's performance with expectations of group revenue pacing up 5-7% in 2025 and even higher rates seen in certain key markets. Such positive projections position Park Hotels favorably in an evolving market landscape.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to the Park Hotels & Resorts Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Ian Weissman, Senior VP, Corporate Strategy. Please go ahead, sir.

[Ian Weissman, executive]

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to the Park Hotels & Resorts Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call.

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that many of the comments made today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not [indiscernible] to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements.

Actual future performance, outcomes and results may differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements. Please refer to the documents filed by Park with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements.

In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information such as FFO and adjusted EBITDA. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in yesterday's earnings release as well as in our 8-K filed with the SEC and the supplemental financial information available on our website at pkhotelsandresorts.com. Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all operating results will be presented on a comparable basis.

This morning, Tom Baltimore, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, will provide a review of Park's third quarter performance and strategic initiatives. Sean Dell'Orto, our Chief Financial Officer, will provide additional color on third quarter results and our fourth quarter dividend. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Tom.

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Thank you, Ian, and welcome, everyone. I'm pleased to report another solid quarter, and business fundamentals remain healthy. We delivered a 3.3% RevPAR growth in the third quarter despite transitory factors that disrupted demand in certain markets in August and September.

Our portfolio's performance demonstrates strong capabilities of our team and those of our operators to execute our business priorities while also adapting and responding to various challenges that presented themselves during the quarter. And for that, I'm very proud and grateful.

We experienced healthy growth in group and business transient demand throughout the quarter, which helped to offset moderating leisure trends in some markets and highlighted the diversification and continued strength of our portfolio. Results were driven by strong convention calendars in several core urban markets, including Chicago, New Orleans and Boston, which contributed to a combined RevPAR increase of 14%. This was further complemented by solid leisure trends across several resort markets, including Orlando, Miami and San Diego, which collectively generated an 11% RevPAR growth during the quarter.

We are particularly pleased with the results from our recent redevelopment projects in Orlando and Key West, both of which are well positioned to benefit from healthy group and leisure trends and where our recently renovated Waldorf Astoria Orlando has been ranked ninth by Condé Nast Traveler in its prestigious 2024 Reader's Choice Awards for the Best Resorts in the World.

These projects and accolades highlight Park's best-in-class design and development expertise and our ability to unlock significant embedded value within our portfolio, which we anticipate will remain a strategic focus for Park over the next several years as we continue to reshape the portfolio and strive to generate strong returns.

Looking ahead, we are actively exploring additional development opportunities in key markets such as Hawaii, Key West, Santa Barbara and Miami, which have the potential to deliver attractive returns on invested capital, similar to our recently completed projects.

In Orlando, our Bonnet Creek complex witnessed RevPAR growth of 22% during the quarter driven by solid group production as the larger meeting platform allowed the hotel to layer in several groups simultaneously, resulting in an incremental 12,000 group room nights over the prior period and representing the highest Q3 group rooms and banquet revenue in Park's history at the complex, surpassing the property's previous high watermarks in 2016 and 2015, respectively.

In Key West, RevPAR growth was 130% for the quarter driven by our Casa Marina resort hotel lapped renovation displacement prior year period. Looking ahead to Q4, both of our Key West hotels are expected to pace ahead of 2023 with Casa Marina continuing to see positive effects from the comprehensive renovation while the reach projected to achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth due to an anticipated increase in occupancy.

In Miami, operating trends remained strong as we continue to witness healthy group and leisure demand trends with RevPAR growth up over 7%. We expect this momentum to continue into the fourth quarter with the hotel forecasted to post mid-single-digit RevPAR gains driven by a robust convention schedule in October and strong leisure transient demand during the holiday season.

In New Orleans, market hosted 8 citywide events during the quarter compared to none in the prior year, contributing to a nearly $5 million increase in group room revenues and $2 million of banquet and catering revenue at our Hilton Riverside hotel during the quarter, driving an almost 8-point increase in occupancy.

In Chicago, a healthy convention calendar, including the Democrat convention held in August, led to performance exceeding expectations with the Hilton Chicago recording an impressive 20% increase in RevPAR for the quarter as the hotel capitalized on citywide and in-house events drive a 36% surge in group room revenue.

Finally, in Boston, market benefited from 5 citywide events during the quarter, translating into 25 compression nights, which helped to drive 14% RevPAR growth at our Hyatt Regency Boston hotel.

As a segment, group continued to strengthen this quarter with revenue increasing nearly 13% year-over-year to approximately $110 million coupled with strong banquet and catering revenue improvement of 9%. 2024 group revenue pace is up over 9% to 2024 pickup in the year for the year, reaching nearly 100,000 room nights during the quarter, accounting for $10 million of incremental group revenue recognized in the third quarter, $13 million of incremental group revenue anticipated in the fourth quarter.

Looking at 2025, group revenue pace continues to be up in the mid- to upper single-digit range, led by double-digit gains in Orlando, Denver, Key West and San Francisco, while pace at our Hilton [indiscernible] resort is up nearly 80% versus same time last year. We are also encouraged with the booking windows further extending into the future, 2026 pace currently up 10%.

Turning to Hawaii. Q3 RevPAR declined by a combined 8% at our 2 Hawaii hotels with results negatively impacted by several factors, including disruption from labor strikes at [indiscernible] Village, tough year-over-year comparisons at Hilton Waikoloa, disruption of multiphase room renovations at both hotels.

In addition, inbound travel from Japan during the quarter was further hampered by 3 severe weather events in August, which led to widespread flight cancellations, travel disruptions across Japan and a 17% decline of inbound travel from Japan during the month. Overall, we have been encouraged by the pace of improvement in Japanese travel prior to these storms, averaging over 50% year-to-date through July.

From a capital allocation perspective, we remain laser focused on our strategic priorities to dispose of noncore assets and recycle capital to unlock the significant embedded value in our core portfolio through accretive ROI investments while also opportunistically buying back stock at historically deep discounts to net asset value.

During the third quarter, composed of 2 noncore assets, the Hilton La Jolla Torrey Pines, the Hilton Oakland Airport, we continue to reshape the portfolio and enhance our long-term growth profile. Sale of Torrey Pines closed in July generated our pro rata share of gross sale proceeds of over $40 million and represented a nearly 12x gross multiple on 2023 EBITDA.

Additionally, transaction helped to further improve our balance sheet with our unconsolidated debt balance reduced by approximately $17 million, while net proceeds were used to partially fund repurchase of 2.5 million shares of our common stock during the third quarter of $35 million.

With respect to the Hilton Oakland Airport hotel, in late August, we permanently closed the hotel, noncore asset with less than 10 years remaining on a ground lease. Oakland remains a very challenged market with the hotel recognizing $3 million loss over the trailing 12 months, a reporting RevPAR of just $68. Closure is expected to result in a positive $1 million impact to earnings during the fourth quarter while adding approximately $2 in nominal RevPAR and 30 basis points to hotel adjusted EBITDA on an annualized basis.

In addition, during the third quarter, we commenced over $200 million of comprehensive guestroom renovations at the iconic Rainbow Tower at the Hilton Hawaiian Village, Palace Tower at Hilton Waikoloa, the Main Tower at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside. Phase 1 of 2 for both Hawaii renovations is expected to be completed by Q1 2025, while Phase 1 of the rooms renovation in New Orleans, expected to be completed in Q4 of this year and ahead of the Super Bowl in February 2025.

We are particularly excited about the potential impact reimagined rooms are expected to have on our results, especially in Hawaii. Our recent successful renovation of 1,000-room [indiscernible] Tower and Hilton Hawaiian Village delivered a significant ADR premium compared to other resort room types once it was back online.

Turning to guidance. Due to the uncertainties surrounding continuing negotiations between our operators and labor unions and the related impacts on operating results which are not factored into our prior guidance, we are not in a position to update full year 2024 RevPAR and EBITDA guidance at this time.

Our operators continue to work toward reasonable solutions that are in the best interest of all parties. Once the appropriate agreements have been ratified, we have a better understanding of the impacts, we will provide a financial update including an update on earnings guidance.

I want to emphasize that we continue to be confident in the core strength of both business and leisure demand trends throughout the balance of the portfolio with year-to-date 2024 RevPAR up 4.3% despite some of the challenges we faced towards the end of the third quarter.

As we look ahead to 2025, we expect to continue aggressively pruning our noncore portfolio, proceeds expected to be used to buy back our common stock and fund our growing development and renovation pipeline.

In closing, we believe there is simply no better use of our capital than reinvesting it back into our portfolio at returns that far exceed acquisition yields to create long-term value for shareholders.

With that, I will turn the call over to Sean.

[Sean Dell'Orto, executive]

Thanks, Tom. Q3 RevPAR for the portfolio was approximately $190, representing year-over-year growth of 3.3% with occupancy gaining 2.5 percentage points and rates flat year-over-year at $243. When adjusting for roughly 70 basis points of disruption from Hurricane Helene and labor strike activity, RevPAR growth for the quarter would have been 4.0%.

Similar activity has impacted October with RevPAR growth disrupted by Hurricane Milton by roughly 80 basis points. Adjusting for this disruption, we anticipate RevPAR will be relatively flat for the month despite additional headwinds stemming from the holiday calendar shift and ongoing strike activity at certain hotels for a majority of the month, which were offset by solid performance elsewhere in the resort and urban portfolios.

Total RevPAR for the third quarter increased by 3.8% driven mostly by a 4.4% increase in F&B revenue as group-driven banquet and catering revenue increased nearly 9%. Hotel revenue was $625 million during the quarter, and hotel adjusted EBITDA was $170 million, resulting in a nearly 27.2% hotel adjusted EBITDA margin. Note that the year-over-year margin comparison was negatively impacted by nearly $8 million of property tax benefits and relief grants received last year in addition to nearly $4 million of hurricane and labor strike disruption in the third quarter of this year. Excluding these items, hotel adjusted EBITDA margin would have been comparable year-over-year.

With respect to Hurricane Helene and Milton, our hotels located in Key West, Miami and Orlando remain fully operational while sustaining minimal damage and business interruption. Overall, we estimate the total impact from both hurricanes to account for roughly $2 million to $3 million of hotel adjusted EBITDA disruption with most of the impact occurring in Q4.

With respect to our dividend, on October 15, we paid our third quarter cash dividend of $0.25 per share and anticipate paying a fourth quarter dividend, which is subject to Board approval in accordance with our typical practice of targeting 65% to 70% of our full year adjusted FFO per share, comprised of a $0.25 fixed quarterly component plus a to-be-determined annual top-off component to meet our target.

This concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the line for Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Operator, may we have the first question, please?

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Smedes Rose from Citibank.

[Bennett Rose, analyst]

I wanted to ask just a little bit more probably predictably about Hawaii. You saw RevPAR down 8% across the 2 properties. I think on your second quarter call, you had talked about maybe more like 2% to 3% down in the second half. And you mentioned a few things that went on in the quarter.

But could you just sort of maybe talk a little bit more about what you were seeing sort of on an underlying basis for leisure demand and to Hawaii and how you're thinking about it kind of going forward over the next several quarters, putting aside the strike?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

I'd make a couple of observations, Smedes. Obviously, we were lapping what happened in Maui. We certainly have gotten benefit there. We knew, as you think about Hilton Waikoloa obviously, that was going to be really a tough comp. And so we obviously expected that to be choppy.

I mean, obviously, given what happened with weather related in -- and Japanese travel clearly did not expect that as we talked about it in the last call. We remain very bullish on Hawaii long term.

I think if you look over the last 20 years, Oahu's RevPAR growth is sort of outpaced the U.S. by nearly 300 basis points and I think while exceeding kind of other resort markets by about 150 bps. So I think the U.S. CAGR is about 2%, and Oahu is north of 5%.

So this is, in our view, temporary and transitory. We certainly don't see anything that alarms us in terms of the underlying fundamentals. Obviously, the other matter, obviously, we've -- I've addressed that in my prepared remarks.

[Bennett Rose, analyst]

Okay. So just to be clear, I mean, it sounds like the difference relative to prior expectations is really driven by weather events in Japan that impacted Japanese travel, but you're not seeing anything that would concern you around kind of the state of the U.S.-based kind of leisure demand relative to what are your expectations for...

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

We are not. We expected the last call that visitation would be about 770,000, up from 600,000 last year in terms of overall Japanese visitation. I think now that's come down a little bit. I think largely given the weather related and the cancellations, down to about 720,000. So that's still about 22% over last year, and it's still about 54% below 2019, Smedes. So we expect to probably get back to pre-pandemic in the 2026, 2027 based on current forecast right now.

[Sean Dell'Orto, executive]

And Smedes, I would add, we talked about [indiscernible], but you also had Hurricane [indiscernible] that came through, and I think more so impacted Big Island and the hurricane activity that was more specific to Hawaii. That was disruptive in August as well.

So we looked at inbound flights that we're tracking at least in the Honolulu on average, about 10% each month year-over-year and ultimately dropped about 3% in August. So you can see some of that activity, some of that disruption from weather impacting the market.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Floris Van Dijkum from Compass Point.

[Floris Gerbrand van Dijkum, analyst]

I'm going to ask a little bit about the elephant in the room. I know that you're limited maybe on what you can talk about. But is the hotel taking bookings, Hawaii Village I'm talking about? And how quickly can it ramp up should negotiations get settled? And how quickly before EBITDA starts to come online there in your best estimate?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Floris, first of all, the hotel has never closed, and it's continued to provide services to guests. And so that hasn't been an issue at all. And I think as I said in the prepared remarks, obviously, due to the uncertainty surrounding the continuing negotiations between our operators and labor unions, we're just not in a position to update guidance or provide any of those details at this time.

As soon as the appropriate agreements have been negotiated and ratified, we'll have a better understanding of the impact and certainly provide an update at that time. But rest assured that the Hilton Hawaiian Village has remained open during the strike.

[Floris Gerbrand van Dijkum, analyst]

And then, I guess, the follow-up question is, does this -- how -- you still have, call it, 14 -- based on our estimates, 14 noncore hotels. Does this make you evaluate your -- or maybe accelerate some of your plans to dispose of those hotels? Or is that dependent on the capital markets activity and the financing availability for potential buyers as you think about focusing more on your top 25 hotels?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes, it's a great question, Floris. I think we've demonstrated we are laser focused on really continuing to reshape the portfolio. Just to remind listeners, I see since the spin now, we have sold or disposed of 44 assets for nearly $3 billion. And it's obviously a much stronger portfolio, but we still have another 14 assets, plus or minus, that are noncore. And we will continue to work aggressively to really recycle that capital.

And as I said in the prepared remarks, in our view, there's nothing that can create more value than really investing back into our portfolio. And as you think about kind of the Casa Marina, as an example, and the extraordinary work done there, we're expecting EBITDA this year at about $30 million, plus or minus. And that's about 35% over the pre-pandemic high watermark. And this is in the first year.

Obviously, Bonnet Creek is -- just given the award we've gotten regarding the Waldorf, just given the growth potential there, we remain very bullish on our core portfolio. And we remain bullish on Hawaii and certainly adding another tower at Hilton Hawaiian Village.

We look forward to adding another 200 keys, plus or minus, at Hilton Waikoloa, which we're already entitled to do and coupled with adding additional supply and product at the Hilton Santa Barbara and then really a complete transformation of the Royal Palm in Miami. So we just think that there's tremendous upside for shareholders and value to be created and is all embedded within this core portfolio.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

[Duane Pfennigwerth, analyst]

Just on group pace for next year, I wonder if you could go into more detail on key markets you think would outperform, key markets that you think would lag? And any sense for the composition of the types of groups that are driving the improvement?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

As you know, we had a really strong group performance this year, up about 9%. Obviously, Waikoloa and Bonnet Creek, obviously, have been strong. Clearly, what we've seen, obviously, in Chicago and New Orleans, obviously, also have been very strong as well.

And as we sort of look out next year, as we said in the prepared remarks, sort of that mid- to high single digits, I'd say we're probably 5% to 7% right now. There are a number of tentatives so we think that's certainly going to improve.

As we think about those markets, obviously, Hilton Hawaiian Village -- Hilton Waikoloa, excuse me, which was down 44%, I believe, this year, we're looking at group pace being up almost 77% next year, which is going to be very, very encouraging for us as we look out.

Denver looks strong. Bonnet Creek continues to be as strong. Probably Waikoloa, I think, was in the mid-40s. I think overall, we're looking at probably mid- to high teens in terms of growth pace there, mid-single digits for New York Midtown.

Even San Francisco, as we think about the Union Square property there, looks to be in the 25% to 30% increase. So still very, very encouraged by that. And as you also think about 2026, we're already looking at a group pace that's up about 10% there. So very encouraged when you think about our portfolio, and I think a real strength of our portfolio, Duane.

[Duane Pfennigwerth, analyst]

And maybe just to come back to Orlando, can you help frame the performance that you're seeing versus maybe a pre-renovation baseline? I don't know if you have it handy, and I don't want to put you on the spot, but like a RevPAR index improvement that you may be realizing relative to pre-reno or maybe 2019?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. I'll take a stab. And let me just talk about kind of Orlando overall. And then regarding the RevPAR index, I don't have that. Perhaps Sean has that.

But when you think about Orlando, I mean, you've got, I think, last year about 74 million visitors. If you think about Vegas, it's probably in the mid-40 range. And you think about Epic Universal and their own record, I think, of about a $5 billion investment plus or minus, that's opening in the spring of next year.

Obviously, Disney has talked about spending another $60 billion over the next 10 years, plus or minus. So we are very, very bullish on Orlando long term. If you think about citywides, this year, there were about 98 citywides for about 1.1 million room nights. I think next year, while fewer events, an increase of about 8% in room nights to about almost 1.2 million, plus or minus. So very, very bullish.

And we think, obviously, as we saw in the third quarter, given the size and adding another 100,000 square feet of meeting space and multifunction space allows us to simultaneously layer in multiple groups coupled with a world-class golf course and all of the other resort amenities and proximate to both Disney and Universal. We are very, very bullish on Orlando, both in the near term and in the long term.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Dany Asad from Bank of America.

[Dany Asad, analyst]

Tom or Sean, when we look at 2025, can you share any insight with us on how your large corporate accounts are shaping up? We've heard from airlines calling out stronger large corporates heading into next year. So just curious to see what you guys are hearing.

[Sean Dell'Orto, executive]

Yes. I mean it's always a little tricky. We're kind of, I think, in that season right now, Dany. And I'll also say a lot of the contracts over time have gone from kind of just doing your typical -- your historical fix, hey, let's increase this 4% or 5% to more dynamic pricing such that it's more just a percentage of [ VAR ] driving it.

And so as you think about kind of where we think rates could go next year, and obviously, we're still in the throes of -- in the beginnings of budget discussions, kind of hard to say exactly and pinpoint and kind of range percent. I certainly know it's up.

And also, I think when you look at the behavior of the corporate negotiated subsegment, it's been an outperformer this year versus expectations. And so we think we've seen about 6% or so, plus or minus, up this year throughout the year. So I think that kind of -- I think bodes well, and I think plays into what you maybe hear from other industries about likely strong performance for that group remaining -- continuing in 2025.

[Dany Asad, analyst]

Understood. And for my follow-up, we've heard from other owners and some of the brands, including Hilton, that November demand is just -- it could be softer around the edges, especially when we're talking about like the elections and kind of right that period of November specifically. Curious to see what you guys are thinking, and more importantly, how that feels relative to your expectations from maybe 30 or 60 days ago?

[Sean Dell'Orto, executive]

Yes, I think it is having an impact. I would say, in general, pace is down that week around 13%. I would even say the week after that is down about 11%. So I think not surprisingly, I think people are not electing to travel and make any plans that certainly that the week of. I would say think the week after is picking up positively. So that could be something that's something to watch depending on what happens post election.

But you're definitely seeing that. And then as you get beyond election time frame, you start getting into holiday shifts, which I'm sure you guys will pick up as we get through it.

But Thanksgiving is on a different week, later week this year than next year. So you're going to have some flip flops of different weeks as you kind of really dig into it.

But on the whole, I would say December is little beneficiary of some of the shifts versus November. November is definitely a weaker month of the quarter. Put it all together, they'll combine November, December, I think you're kind of looking at similar growth on average between the 2 if you were just to obviously combine them relative to kind of comparable to October. But it's definitely a weak November, offset by a stronger December.

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

And Dany, if you think about the last election, I think similar sort of framework occurred as well back to 2020 and I think even in 2016. So we're not overly alarmed by it.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Aryeh Klein from BMO Capital Markets.

[Aryeh Klein, analyst]

Maybe just following up on the overlap question. I think previously, you were expecting maybe 1%, 2% RevPAR growth in the fourth quarter based on the prior guide. Setting aside the strike impact, is that still a [indiscernible] expectation? Or kind of how should we think about the performance this quarter?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. It's hard to decouple obviously, given what's happening with the other activities. And obviously, you've also had the weather-related activity. So I'd rather wait and provide that information when we provide the update once our operators and the unions have finalized any outstanding agreements, and we can provide a clear update.

No doubt, as Sean said, as you think about November, certainly the week of the election and probably a little after that, I think just given the uncertainty, given how divided things are, you're probably going to see less travel during that period of time.

And I don't think that's a real surprise. And as I said at the end of the conversation that Dany asked, if you look back to 2020 and 2016, I really think that was what we experienced as well.

[Aryeh Klein, analyst]

Understood. And then maybe as we think about 2025, when we're looking at expenses, what -- is 4% to 5% kind of a reasonable expectation for next year? And if that is the case, what type of RevPAR growth do you think you would need to grow EBITDA?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. We're just beginning the budgetary process, all right. So we -- that's another -- we will provide guidance as we've done historically. And I mean, obviously, we're all concerned about what's going to happen with the top line as we look forward as well as the corresponding expenses.

But we'll have more information on that at a later date. We still feel very good about our portfolio. This obviously is a solid third quarter, probably going to be among sector-leading as you think about the top line.

And obviously, if you take out both the strike activity and obviously, some of the weather-related, it's probably close to a 4% print. So we feel very good about our portfolio, and we're going to continue to focus on selling noncore, reinvesting back in the portfolio, reducing leverage and then returning capital to shareholders.

We've returned north of $630 million, I think, last year. And we're probably going to be somewhere in the $300 million, $350 million this year. And that includes buying back 19 million, 19.5 million shares over the last 18, 20 months. So feel very good about our performance and really our capital allocation decisions.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of David Katz from Jefferies.

[David Katz, analyst]

I wanted to ask kind of a bigger, broader question about the subject of weather and how you think about that in your underwriting, whether that's for capital spending in certain markets that are exposed more so than others or any potential sort of acquisitions down the road.

I think Smedes maybe used the term whack-a-mole earlier on, and I think it may be apropos, right, where it's a recurring, nonrecurring event and the degree to which we sort of contemplate that in underwriting or whether we should keep looking through it or we should be thinking about it, too.

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. David, it's a great question. And I would say if you think back over the last few years, obviously, at Park, we've been fortunate in that we haven't had any direct hit. But obviously, we've been certainly impacted by it.

And it's an area that we really separate ourselves. A huge credit to Carl Mayfield, who heads our design and construction team. We -- as you think about any of the storms, Helene and Milton as an example, we had first responders on site within 72 hours of the event.

We've set up tiger dams. We've looked at the resiliency of our buildings as part of the complete transformation of the Casa Marina, taking all the building systems that were in the [indiscernible] and below grade and removing those. And we've also looked at sand nourishment and how -- what things we can do to be incredibly proactive, and you see that really reflected in our insurance cost.

Sean and Carl have done an extraordinary job. And as a result, our insurance costs were down. I doubt very many of our peers could say that. And I think it's these proactive measures that we have in place, we take it seriously. And you can also see the tie in to our corporate social responsibility report as well, Emily Smith and the other team members that work on that.

And so it is very important, particularly given our portfolio and really where the demand generators are. And so it's something that we've got to continue to monitor and be proactive.

We do factor it into our underwriting. We think about what that risk may be is part of that investment and that assessment of that opportunity. So it is something where Park has really distinguished themselves vis-a-vis our peers.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Patrick Scholes from Truist Securities.

[Charles Scholes, analyst]

My first question, can you give us a little bit about -- thoughts about your expectations for the inbound Japanese traveler to Hawaii for 4Q and what potentially next year might look like for that?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. I think if you look historically, Patrick, Japanese travel, and this is sort of pre-pandemic, was about 0.5 million. That was about 17% of demand. Obviously, in 2023, it was about 600,000. So it's about 60% below pandemic.

2024, as I think I said earlier, we were expecting it to be probably in the beginning of the year, probably about 850,000 to 880,000. That's been revised downward. Part of that's because of the weather-related issues that occurred, both in Japan as well as the 3 storms.

And so now we're looking at about 720,000 on an annualized basis, and that's about 22% above last year. And it's still about 50% to 54% below 2019 levels.

We think we get back to pre-pandemic probably in the 2026 to 2027 time frame. Where we are in terms of the fourth quarter, I don't have the fourth quarter data. I don't know whether -- but we'll follow up with you and make sure you have that. We've got it more on the annualized and not the individual quarter.

[Charles Scholes, analyst]

Okay. My second question, now that strike seem to be dragging on, especially in Hawaii, at this point, is Hilton notifying transient and group guests pre-arrival about the strikes?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. The answer is, I mean, obviously, look, I think they've been publicly disclosed. And so I'm sure, through their channels, they're making sure that people are aware. I do think it's important to note, obviously, as it relates to Hawaii, I'm not going to comment on the specifics. Obviously, our operator and the unions are in ongoing discussions.

And when that agreement is reached and when it's ultimately ratified, we'll all get back to normal. We do believe that this is a transitory matter. And we remain, as I've said throughout the call, we remain very bullish on Hawaii on the intermediate and long term.

I'd also like to point out as it relates to other markets in Boston, for example, we understand that our operator reached agreement with the union in Boston last evening and that a vote is scheduled for later this week. And then also our operator has reached agreement in San Jose, and that agreement has also been ratified.

So these -- the process will last as long as the process lasts. And obviously, when our operator and the unions have reached agreement and it's been ratified, obviously, we'll move forward.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Chris Woronka from Deutsche Bank.

[Chris Woronka, analyst]

So Tom, I think it's kind of, I guess, implied in your earlier comments. But as you think about all your ROI, CapEx projects moving forward and I look back to that list you guys have provided in May, and all but maybe 2 of those are kind of in union markets.

So these things are going to get settled like you said. Can I -- can we just assume from your comments that whatever may happen, whatever the outcome is, financially, it's not going to deter you at all from these projects? And does it cause you to shift any prioritization in terms of a market that gets CapEx dollars before another?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. Chris, it's a great question. And as I said earlier, as you think about Hawaii as an example, if you look over the last 20 years, I mean, Oahu's RevPAR growth rate, it's outpaced the U.S. by nearly 300 basis points.

And given, obviously, the difficulty of adding new supply, given those barriers to entry, we remain bullish on Hawaii. And we're confident that our operator and the union will get this resolved and things will move forward.

But we remain bullish. And those priorities that we've outlined is we've already started the renovation at the Rainbow Tower at Hilton Hawaiian Village. We've started the renovation of the Palace Tower at Hilton Waikoloa. And this is just bull's eye real estate that has performed well. And we expect that over the intermediate, long term, we continue to perform well.

We are more successful today at Hilton Waikoloa as a 600-room hotel than we were as a 1,200-room hotel, which I think you've heard me say many times. As we look at Miami and Royal Palm and just bull's eye real estate there on the beach as well, there's a great opportunity to really transform of that property, not dissimilar to what we did in the Casa Marina, which -- and the reach, both of which have had huge success. So it's really part of our strategy to continue to invest in high-quality real estate that can generate outsized returns for investors.

[Chris Woronka, analyst]

Okay. Yes. Appreciate the thoughts, Tom. A follow-up question is, I guess, and maybe this is where we are at the time of the year. I know you're going through the early stages of budgeting and won't be giving any '25 guidance until early in next year.

But maybe you can give us a refresher or tutorial on kind of how your approach to guidance when you give it? Because this year, I think we saw the brand companies their RevPAR guidance evolved a little bit, and there were obviously some weather impacts and then there were some things, the calendars that maybe shouldn't have been a surprise. But maybe can you just give us a quick refresher on -- tutorial on how you guys take budgets and formulate them into annual guidance?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Well, obviously, Chris, we've been -- I've been around a long time. So I've been through the cycles. And obviously, you had calendar shifts this year. You had weather. It's a very detailed process. It's thoughtful between, obviously, the owners and operators.

And you put in a lot of work, and you try to have the appropriate spread between those quarters. And sometimes as an industry, we're more right than others. I think this year, you had the calendar shift, but you also had dramatic swings in weather that certainly impacted. So that certainly played a role.

I think overall for the Park portfolio, it is holding up very well and performing well. And I think we said earlier in the year, we expected that we would be 100 probably net of renovation disruption premium to our peers. And I think that's probably holding true. And so we feel very good about our performance and where we are. And obviously, the other matters will get themselves resolved when they're resolved.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Jay Kornreich from Wedbush Securities.

[Jay Kornreich, analyst]

You mentioned being -- remaining bullish long term on Hawaii. It's been a great market. And I'm curious just how you're thinking about how that market can perform in the first 3 quarters of 2025?

We had some tough comps. I guess it will have a tough comp from 1Q '24 this year and the opportunity for further RevPAR upside next year or should we kind of think about that market in the first 3 quarters being somewhat down before lapping an easier fourth quarter comp with hopefully the union issue being resolved?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Again, I go back to my earlier statement. If you look over the last 20 years, I mean, I think it's either been first or second strongest market over that period of time. I think about the barriers to entry. I think about the improved airlift. I think about just the extraordinary beauty. You think about the international visitation. The Japanese traveler will return.

And historically, they were averaging about 100, and we were doing about 150 weddings a year at Hilton Hawaiian Village is one example. We're doing a small fraction of that today.

So we really haven't gotten back to sort of pre-pandemic when you think about the international piece, and there are growing segments there coupled with the fact that the additional airlift. So I would still as we think about markets that are a high priority in terms of future investment, Hawaii remains a top market for us.

[Jay Kornreich, analyst]

Okay. And then as a follow-up, you may have mentioned at the end of your prepared remarks, I just want to make sure. Just as October is coming to a close, are you able to kind of give a range as to what October RevPAR growth within the portfolio is?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes, we -- Sean provided that in the prepared remarks. We were -- we're trending flat to down 1%, and that's -- if you were...

[Sean Dell'Orto, executive]

Yes. I mean, ultimately, I mean, that's the case. And if you -- clearly had Milton in October. So if you adjust for that hurricane disruption, you're probably kind of in the zone of being flat. So again, we've had some outperformance in other parts of the portfolio.

Clearly, we have other disruption elsewhere with union activity and the strikes. But ultimately, we're kind of looking at that general range. Clearly, we've got a few days left in the month. And we're -- as Tom noted, when we kind of look to give people a readout once things are resolved, we'll certainly give people a sense of how October ended.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Robin Farley from UBS.

[Robin Farley, analyst]

I wonder if you could just help us quantify. When we think about the properties where there's disruption from labor negotiations, what they represent typically as a percent of your total EBITDA? And then maybe we can take Boston and [indiscernible] added that, thinking about here forward in terms of what percent of your EBITDA is being disrupted.

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. We'll stay, Robin, away from the EBITDA portion of it. But if you were to take just Hilton Hawaiian Village and Boston Logan out of Q3, it was about 240 basis point drag on RevPAR. And so obviously, instead of that 3.3, probably closer to 5.7, I think, plus or minus.

And as we think about sort of October, as Sean said, you've got really about 80 basis points of weather-related. So you're essentially flat there. If you were to also take out sort of Boston Hilton Hawaiian Village, I mean, you probably would have been in the 4 -- over 4% in RevPAR, plus or minus. Again, the month hasn't closed out but probably somewhere in that range.

[Robin Farley, analyst]

Okay. Okay. And then just looking at your group pace for 2025, it looked like maybe it ticked down a little bit compared to where group pace was at the end of Q2. And is that just something that we should think about as [indiscernible]? Or do you think that's the labor disruption impacting that? Or is it just tougher comps with group for next year?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes, I think you got 2 things. You got the tougher comps. Obviously, Chicago, New Orleans are having really strong years. New Orleans, we expect that to continue into '25. Chicago will drop down.

We're bullish. Hilton Waikoloa, obviously, it's having a soft year down about 44%. We think that's going to increase up to about 77% as group pace as we look in 2025.

You've got tentatives. It's a fluid situation, but we are very, very bullish as we look out at Bonnet Creek, which is obviously having a very strong year this year. We expect that's going to continue next year in the out years.

So as we said, we expect it will finish -- we'll end up -- we'll sort of begin the year in 2025 at sort of mid to high single digits, and we're already at up 10% as we look out to 2026. So we see that again as a really strong growth segment for us, Robin, as we move forward.

[Robin Farley, analyst]

Great. If I could just squeeze one final thing on your asset sale plans. Just if you could describe a little bit, I don't know if sort of I would assume there's maybe heading into the election that things were a little slower in terms of that.

Do you think the timing -- is it waiting for other rate cuts? I mean when you think about potential buyers, is it waiting for additional rate cuts? Is it waiting to see how the labor negotiations conclude, both this year and then maybe some to come next year? I guess how we think about your expectation for timing of further asset sales?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. I think a lot of that has to do with just buyer and sellers and closing the gap. Obviously, with lower rates, that really will be a positive catalyst. And certainly, the debt markets are open.

But I think as both sides get into 2025, I think you can expect the transaction market to accelerate. And again, we've had no trouble as you think through and as I said earlier, I mean, we've sold or disposed of now since the spin about 44 assets, nearly $3 billion, including 14 international. Many of those complicated with legal tax, joint ventures.

We've seen it all, and we've got a very [indiscernible] team who are working aggressively, and we're not a distressed seller. So we're looking for a fair price. We're going to be thoughtful about it.

But clearly, it is a strong priority for us to continue to recycle that capital and invest it back into our core markets. Our top 25 assets really account for about 90% of the value of the company, and that's where we want to be growing in the future.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Chris Darling from Green Street.

[Chris Darling, analyst]

Going back to some of the comments around group pace in '25, how much of total anticipated group revenue for the next year would typically be on the books at this point in time? Just trying to get a better sense of what's kind of baked in for next year.

[Sean Dell'Orto, executive]

Yes, Chris, I would say we're probably looking at -- I'd put in relation to kind of our current forecast for this year's group. We're probably about tracking about 70% or so at this point in time. So certainly, we look to improve that as we get closer to the end of the year. That's about where we are, a proxy for where we are right now.

[Chris Darling, analyst]

Okay. That's helpful.

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

That would be consistent with prior years, as Sean is pointing out, Chris. So that's not unusual.

[Chris Darling, analyst]

Makes sense. Helpful comments then. And then a second question for you. Just as you have assets still in the market, as you mentioned, I'm sure you're still underwriting assets that are coming to market.

Any changes you've observed in pricing or maybe another way to frame it, and any changes you've observed in sort of the bid-ask spread out in the market these days relative to maybe 3, 6 months ago?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. It's narrowing, but I think that's going to accelerate. I think obviously, we were all expecting some looking at 3, 4, 5 rate cuts. I think now it's obviously, the 50 basis points that we've -- that are in the books and probably another 1 or 2 are sort of expected.

As the cost of debt comes down, that clearly is going to help bridge that gap. But there's no shortage of private capital out there. You've got probably $400 billion just on the private equity real estate funds.

You've got family offices. You've got owner operators. So as you know, we've always had a very active trading market in secondary market in lodging. So we fully expect that, that's only going to accelerate.

And many of those funds, the clock is ticking for them. So they've got to start to put that capital to work. So we expect for '25, particularly as rates begin to normalize, we expect the transaction market will continue to improve.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Dori Kesten from Wells Fargo.

[Dori Kesten, analyst]

The Royal Palm isn't currently on your renovation table. What's the likelihood that the project is undertaken in '25?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

There is a, I'd say, greater than a high probability that we move forward. We are working through design. We're working through a model room. Obviously, there's a permitting process. We're also trying to find the right window.

But this is an opportunity that we're very bullish on, Dori. It's bull's eye real estate, 393 keys, plus or minus. And really given the high-end assets that are being developed or whether it's the [indiscernible] and others, we think there's a great opportunity to sort underneath, not at that level but certainly raise RevPAR and really the overall performance of the property.

So we're pretty excited about it. And again, not dissimilar to the success that we've demonstrated both in Casa, both at Bonnet, what we're doing in Hawaii. So we're pretty excited about it as we move forward.

But we'll find the right window. We are very sensitive to minimizing disruption. And again, I think it's an area where our team has really sort of distinguished themselves.

[Dori Kesten, analyst]

Okay. And then just one more on Hawaiian Village. I think that property is about 85% transient, 15% group. Are cancellation policies held or they put on hold for transient guests when the strike ongoing?

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes. Many times, we leave that up to the on-site leadership team. We've got a very talented team there. It can be a judgment call. It can be whether there's a discount, whether there's a rescheduling, all of those items, obviously, would be on the table. But Hilton Hawaiian Village despite this matter has remained open every day and continues to take guest.

[Operator]

We have a follow-up question from Floris Van Dijkum from Compass Point.

[Floris Gerbrand van Dijkum, analyst]

I don't know whether you have the answer handy or not, but you mentioned something about Oahu outpacing the U.S. hotel market by 500 basis points. I think it was the last decade, I believe, is what you said in terms of RevPAR. But...

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

I said 300, I think, over the last 20 years is what I said, Floris. And I -- and I'm going from memory, but I think that's a fair -- Sean and Ian can fact-check me and follow up with you. But I'm pretty good with the numbers, as you know. But I think it's 300 basis points over the last 20 years.

[Floris Gerbrand van Dijkum, analyst]

Yes. Sorry, I misspoke. I was curious as to how Hawaii Village did relative over that period? And then also, I'm probably most interested in seeing -- because again, I think -- and this is something you've been espousing for as long as I've known you, your larger assets grow at higher rates than the overall market.

And I'd be curious to see where you have it available, what the EBITDA CAGR has been for your -- for Hawaii during that -- your Hawaii assets over the last 20 years and also maybe your top 25 assets relative to the overall market or relative to the rest of your portfolio.

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

Yes, it's -- and going back of the envelope here, memory, we think around 4.5%, plus or minus. But we'll confirm that, Floris, and get back to you. But there's no doubt that when you think about Hilton Hawaiian Village, you think about Waikoloa, just the quality of that real estate, it's simple. They've been strong performers for really for generations. And you can't replicate what we have in both situations.

[Operator]

As there are no further questions, I would now hand the conference over to Tom Baltimore, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, for his closing comments.

[Thomas Baltimore, executive]

We really appreciate everyone taking time today, and we look forward to seeing many of you in the coming weeks and certainly at NAREIT in Las Vegas. So safe travels, and be well.

[Operator]

Thank you. The conference of Park Hotels & Resorts has now concluded. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.