PG&E Corp
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one PCG stock under the Base Case scenario is 44.96 USD. Compared to the current market price of 21.04 USD, PG&E Corp is Undervalued by 53%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
PG&E Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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PG&E Corp., or Pacific Gas and Electric Company, is a major player in the energy sector, serving millions of customers across Northern and Central California. Established in 1905, PG&E operates as a combined utility, providing electricity and natural gas to a diverse range of residential, commercial, and industrial clients. The company has a storied history intertwined with California's growth, but it has faced significant challenges, particularly regarding safety and regulatory compliance. The devastating wildfires in recent years, largely attributed to its infrastructure, have prompted PG&E to undergo substantial restructuring and change, ultimately leading to its exit from bankruptcy in 2...
PG&E Corp., or Pacific Gas and Electric Company, is a major player in the energy sector, serving millions of customers across Northern and Central California. Established in 1905, PG&E operates as a combined utility, providing electricity and natural gas to a diverse range of residential, commercial, and industrial clients. The company has a storied history intertwined with California's growth, but it has faced significant challenges, particularly regarding safety and regulatory compliance. The devastating wildfires in recent years, largely attributed to its infrastructure, have prompted PG&E to undergo substantial restructuring and change, ultimately leading to its exit from bankruptcy in 2020. Now, with a renewed focus on safety measures, enhanced grid resilience, and renewable energy investments, PG&E is positioned to play a crucial role in California's transition to a cleaner energy future.
For investors, PG&E represents both opportunities and risks. The company's commitment to modernizing its infrastructure and implementing safety protocols aims to mitigate past liabilities while embracing sustainable practices, such as expanding its renewable energy portfolio to include wind, solar, and battery storage. As California continues to push for ambitious climate goals, PG&E stands to benefit from the growing demand for clean energy. However, potential investors should remain cognizant of the regulatory landscape and the company's historical challenges. Navigating these dynamics will be pivotal for PG&E's future success, making it essential for investors to closely monitor the company’s strategic initiatives and financial performance as it seeks to stabilize and rejuvenate its reputation in the energy market.
PG&E Corporation is primarily engaged in the utility sector, providing various essential services in California. Its core business segments are:
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Electric Utility Segment (Pacific Gas and Electric Company - PG&E):
- This segment involves the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. PG&E serves millions of customers across Northern and Central California, providing electric services to residential, commercial, and industrial users.
- Key activities include renewable energy initiatives, energy efficiency programs, and investments in infrastructure to ensure reliable electricity delivery.
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Gas Utility Segment:
- This segment focuses on the transportation and distribution of natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers.
- PG&E's natural gas services include pipeline operations, maintenance, and safety programs, along with efforts to promote energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions.
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Energy Supply and Procurement:
- PG&E Corporation is involved in sourcing and managing the energy supply for its customers, which includes purchasing electricity and gas from various sources, including renewable energy.
- This segment emphasizes long-term contracts and power purchase agreements (PPAs) to stabilize supply and costs while adhering to regulatory standards and sustainability goals.
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Renewable Energy and Sustainability Initiatives:
- This segment encompasses PG&E's efforts in promoting renewable energy solutions, such as solar and wind projects, as well as energy storage systems.
- PG&E is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and facilitating California's transition to a cleaner energy future, thus investing significantly in sustainable energy resources.
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Customer Services and Energy Solutions:
- This segment focuses on customer engagement and support, offering programs that promote energy efficiency, demand response, and innovative technologies.
- PG&E provides tools and resources for customers to manage their energy usage, which can lead to cost savings and lower carbon footprints.
PG&E's operations are also influenced by regulatory requirements, environmental considerations, and the ongoing push for renewable energy adoption in California, making its business model continually evolve in response to market dynamics and policy changes.
Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) has several unique competitive advantages over its rivals in the utility sector, which can be analyzed through various angles:
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Established Infrastructure: PG&E has a well-established network of utility infrastructure across a large geographic area, particularly in northern and central California. This broad footprint allows for economies of scale in operations and maintenance.
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Regulatory Framework: As a regulated utility, PG&E operates under a regulatory framework that often ensures a stable revenue stream. While this also involves certain limitations and obligations, it can provide a level of predictability in revenues and costs, especially when rates are adjusted.
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Access to Capital: Being a large, established utility, PG&E typically has favorable access to capital markets. Investors may view it as a stable investment, granting it the ability to raise funds for infrastructure improvements and expansion projects at competitive rates.
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Diverse Energy Sources: PG&E has made investments in a mix of energy sources, including natural gas, renewable energy, and hydroelectric power. This diversity can provide resilience against fluctuations in energy prices and regulatory changes.
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Brand Recognition and Customer Base: PG&E has a long-standing brand with a substantial customer base. This recognition can foster customer loyalty and make it easier to implement new programs and initiatives, such as energy efficiency and renewable energy adoption.
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Technological Initiatives: PG&E has been investing in advanced technologies such as smart grids and customer engagement tools, which can enhance operational efficiency and improve customer service. These initiatives help to modernize their infrastructure and adapt to changing customer needs.
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Environmental and Sustainability Initiatives: The company has committed to ambitious sustainability goals, including significant investments in renewable energy. This can not only enhance its brand reputation but also align with regulatory trends and consumer preferences for cleaner energy.
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Strong Regulatory Relationships: PG&E's long history in the sector has led to established relationships with regulators. While this can also pose challenges, it can also lead to favorable negotiations in some circumstances.
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Political and Economic Influence: As a major player in California, PG&E has significant influence in political and economic discussions regarding energy policy. This leverage can position the company advantageously in shaping future energy landscape policies.
While these advantages provide PG&E with a strong competitive positioning, they also come with challenges, such as regulatory scrutiny, public perception, and operational risks stemming from events like wildfires. Therefore, it is vital for the company to navigate these challenges while leveraging its competitive strengths.
PG&E Corp, the utility company serving Northern California, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its operations and financial performance in the near future. Here are some key considerations:
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Wildfire Risk: PG&E's history of wildfires, particularly the devastating fires in 2017 and 2018, has led to increased scrutiny and regulatory requirements. The company has to manage its infrastructure to prevent sparking new fires, which involves significant investment in technology and infrastructure improvements.
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Regulatory Environment: PG&E is subject to strict oversight from state and federal regulators. Changes in regulations, particularly related to environmental assessments and safety standards, could impose additional costs or operational limitations.
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Financial Liabilities: The company filed for bankruptcy in 2019 largely due to liabilities from wildfire claims. The resolution of these claims and ongoing financial settlements can strain cash flow and resources.
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Aging Infrastructure: Much of PG&E’s infrastructure is old and may require significant upgrades or replacement. Ensuring reliability and safety while modernizing infrastructure presents both logistical and financial challenges.
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Technological Change: The shift toward renewable energy and the electrification of transportation present both opportunities and challenges. PG&E must adapt to these changes and invest in new technologies to provide reliable service while meeting regulatory mandates and societal expectations.
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Climate Change: Climate change poses ongoing risks, including increased likelihood of severe weather events and prolonged droughts, which can affect electricity demand and supply, as well as create operational challenges.
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Public Perception and Trust: Following its previous safety failures, PG&E has struggled to rebuild trust with customers and stakeholders. Ongoing incidents, regulatory penalties, or negative media coverage could further damage its reputation.
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Customer Transition to Alternative Energy: As more customers turn to solar and other renewable energy sources, PG&E faces the challenge of maintaining its customer base and adapting its business model to a more decentralized energy landscape.
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Economic Conditions: Broader economic conditions, including inflation, economic downturns, or changes in consumer behavior, can impact PG&E’s revenue and operational costs, especially as it seeks to recover from its past financial distress.
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Labor Relations: Any disruptions in labor relations could affect service reliability and operational efficiency, particularly as the company navigates its ongoing restructuring and modernization efforts.
These risks necessitate careful strategic planning and risk management to ensure PG&E can navigate the complex landscape of the energy sector and maintain its operational integrity.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
PG&E Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
PG&E Corp
Current Assets | 17.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 895m |
Receivables | 3.9B |
Other Current Assets | 12.7B |
Non-Current Assets | 114.8B |
PP&E | 86.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 27.8B |
Current Liabilities | 16.9B |
Accounts Payable | 2.4B |
Accrued Liabilities | 734m |
Short-Term Debt | 2B |
Other Current Liabilities | 11.7B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 88.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 54.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 33.9B |
Earnings Waterfall
PG&E Corp
Revenue
|
24.8B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-3.6B
USD
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Gross Profit
|
21.3B
USD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-16.1B
USD
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Operating Income
|
5.2B
USD
|
Other Expenses
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-2.4B
USD
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Net Income
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2.7B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
PG&E Corp
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q3 2024, PG&E's core earnings rose to $0.37, totaling $1.06 year-to-date. The company narrowed its 2024 earnings guidance to $1.34-$1.37, firming up a 10% growth target. Anticipating higher customer demand, PG&E added $1 billion to its five-year capital plan, increasing it to $63 billion and raising 2025 EPS growth guidance from 9% to 10%. The new EPS range for 2025 is set at $1.47-$1.51, with long-term growth anticipated at least 9% annually through 2028. Investing in electrification has driven higher customer connection requests and operational efficiencies, emphasizing PG&E's commitment to both profitability and customer affordability.
What is Earnings Call?
PCG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
PG&E Corp's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
PG&E Corp's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
PCG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
PG&E Corp's solvency score is 24/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
PG&E Corp's solvency score is 24/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
PCG Price Targets Summary
PG&E Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PCG is 22.97 USD with a low forecast of 16.95 USD and a high forecast of 27.3 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for PCG is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Description
PG&E Corp. is a holding company, which engages in generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and natural gas to customers. The company is headquartered in San Francisco, California and currently employs 26,000 full-time employees. The firm's primary operating subsidiary is Pacific Gas and Electric Company (the Utility), which operates in northern and central California. The Utility is engaged in the sale and delivery of electricity and natural gas to customers. The Utility generates electricity and provides electricity transmission and distribution services throughout its service territory in northern and central California to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural customers. The Utility provides bundled services (electricity, transmission and distribution services) to various customers in its service territory. The Utility owns approximately 18,000 circuit miles of interconnected transmission lines operating at voltages ranging from 60 kilovolt (kV) to 500 kV. The company also operates 33 electric transmission substations with a capacity of approximately 70,000 megavolt ampere (MVA).
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The intrinsic value of one PCG stock under the Base Case scenario is 44.96 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 21.04 USD, PG&E Corp is Undervalued by 53%.