Norfolk Southern Corp
NYSE:NSC
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one NSC stock under the Base Case scenario is 202.19 USD. Compared to the current market price of 269.26 USD, Norfolk Southern Corp is Overvalued by 25%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Norfolk Southern Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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Norfolk Southern Corp., a prominent player in the freight rail industry, boasts a rich history dating back to the early 19th century. Headquartered in Norfolk, Virginia, the company operates an extensive 19,500-mile network of railroads that stretch across 22 states in the eastern United States. This vast infrastructure enables Norfolk Southern to efficiently transport a diverse range of goods, including coal, automotive products, intermodal containers, and agricultural products. By leveraging its strategic locations and robust logistics capabilities, the company plays a crucial role in the supply chain, connecting manufacturers to consumers and facilitating growth in various sectors. Inves...
Norfolk Southern Corp., a prominent player in the freight rail industry, boasts a rich history dating back to the early 19th century. Headquartered in Norfolk, Virginia, the company operates an extensive 19,500-mile network of railroads that stretch across 22 states in the eastern United States. This vast infrastructure enables Norfolk Southern to efficiently transport a diverse range of goods, including coal, automotive products, intermodal containers, and agricultural products. By leveraging its strategic locations and robust logistics capabilities, the company plays a crucial role in the supply chain, connecting manufacturers to consumers and facilitating growth in various sectors.
Investors looking at Norfolk Southern will find a company committed to innovation and operational excellence, underscored by its focus on enhancing safety and sustainability throughout its operations. The company has undertaken substantial investments in technology, such as advanced train scheduling and predictive maintenance, to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Moreover, Norfolk Southern has a history of delivering shareholder value through steady dividends and share repurchases, making it an attractive proposition for long-term investors. As the demand for freight transportation continues to grow, driven by e-commerce and a recovering economy, Norfolk Southern positions itself as a key player poised to capitalize on these opportunities while navigating the challenges of an evolving industry landscape.
Norfolk Southern Corporation operates primarily in the transportation sector, specifically focusing on freight rail services. The company's core business segments can be categorized as follows:
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Intermodal:
- This segment involves the transportation of containerized cargo that can be transferred across different modes of transport (such as truck, rail, and ship) without handling the cargo itself. Norfolk Southern provides logistics services and operates a network of intermodal terminals, connecting various points for efficient freight movement.
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Bulk Commodities:
- Norfolk Southern's bulk commodities segment includes the transportation of large volumes of goods that are typically low in value but high in weight. This includes products such as coal, agricultural products, and chemicals. The segment plays a vital role in moving raw materials to various industries.
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Automotive:
- In this segment, Norfolk Southern transports finished vehicles, often employing specialized railcars for automobiles. It serves manufacturers and dealers within the automotive industry, facilitating the movement of cars from production facilities to dealerships.
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Merchandise:
- This segment includes the transportation of a variety of goods, including retail products, consumer goods, and industrial materials. It caters to a wide range of customers and encompasses various product types.
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Other Revenues:
- This category covers ancillary services and activities that don't fall under the primary business segments, such as freight car leasing, logistics services, and terminal operations.
Each of these segments is integral to Norfolk Southern's overall strategy and revenue generation, contributing to its position as a significant player in the North American transportation infrastructure. The company's focus on operational efficiency, customer service, and sustainability also enhances its competitive advantage in the freight rail industry.
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NS) possesses several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals in the rail transport industry:
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Extensive Network and Infrastructure: Norfolk Southern operates a vast and well-established rail network that spans approximately 19,500 route miles across 22 states and the District of Columbia. This extensive reach enables efficient transportation of goods across key industrial areas in the eastern United States.
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Diverse Service Offerings: The company provides a wide range of transportation services, including intermodal, automotive, coal, agricultural, and industrial products. This diversification helps mitigate risk and capture various revenue streams, providing stability during economic fluctuations.
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Strong Market Position in Key Commodities: Norfolk Southern has a significant presence in the transportation of coal and intermodal services. Its strategic focus on these segments allows it to capitalize on specific market demands and trends, enhancing its competitive stance.
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Cost Efficiency and Operational Excellence: The company has a commitment to operational efficiency, leveraging technology to optimize its operations. Efficient asset utilization and cost management enable Norfolk Southern to maintain competitive pricing and improve margins compared to rivals.
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Strategic Partnerships: Norfolk Southern has established strong relationships with key customers and intermodal partners. This network enhances its service offerings and provides customers with integrated solutions, increasing customer loyalty and retention.
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Technological Investments: The company invests in advanced technologies, including precision scheduled railroading (PSR) and automation, which optimize scheduling and resource allocation, lead to improved service reliability, and enhance overall operational performance.
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Financial Strength: Norfolk Southern has a strong balance sheet and cash flow generation capabilities, enabling it to invest in infrastructure improvements, technology upgrades, and shareholder returns through dividends and stock buybacks. This financial robustness supports long-term growth initiatives and competitively positions the company.
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Sustainability Initiatives: With an increased focus on environmental sustainability, Norfolk Southern is implementing initiatives to reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency. These practices appeal to environmentally-conscious customers and investors, aligning with broader industry trends toward sustainability.
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Strategic Acquisitions and Growth: The company's history of strategic acquisitions has allowed it to expand its network and market share effectively. This growth strategy enhances its competitive positioning against rivals through increased scale and operational capabilities.
By leveraging these advantages, Norfolk Southern Corporation can effectively navigate a competitive landscape, adapt to market changes, and drive long-term value creation for its stakeholders.
Norfolk Southern Corp faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which can potentially impact its operations, financial performance, and strategic objectives. Here are some of the key factors to consider:
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Economic Cycles: The railroad industry is heavily influenced by the broader economy. A recession or slowdown in key sectors (such as manufacturing, mining, and agriculture) could lead to decreased freight volumes, impacting revenue.
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Regulatory Changes: The railroad industry is subject to extensive regulation. Changes in federal or state regulations regarding safety, emissions, labor relations, or infrastructure funding could increase operational costs or require significant adjustments to business practices.
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Labor Relations: Labor strikes or unrest can disrupt operations. The recent workforce challenges following labor negotiations highlight the need for Norfolk Southern to maintain good relations with its employees while managing labor costs.
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Operational Efficiency: As the company navigates challenges such as capacity constraints and reliability issues, maintaining operational efficiency is critical. Failures in management of infrastructure or technology can lead to higher operating costs and customer dissatisfaction.
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Competition: Norfolk Southern competes with other railroads and alternative transportation modes (like trucking and shipping). Increased competition can pressure pricing, potentially eroding margins.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues can impact Norfolk Southern's business. Delays in getting goods to market can lead to decreased demand for rail services.
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Technological Changes: The industry is undergoing changes with advancements in technology (e.g., automation, data analytics, etc.). Keeping pace with innovations while avoiding large capital expenditures could be a balancing act.
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Environmental and Climate Risks: Increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions and the impacts of climate change can affect operations. Norfolk Southern may face increased scrutiny from regulators, investors, and the public regarding its environmental impact.
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Derailments and Safety Incidents: Operational risks, including accidents or derailments, can lead to significant financial liabilities and reputational damage. Ensuring safety standards remain high is paramount.
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Market Volatility: Fluctuations in fuel prices, interest rates, and commodity prices can affect operating costs and pricing strategies, complicating financial forecasting.
In summary, Norfolk Southern must navigate a complex landscape of economic, regulatory, and operational challenges while striving for growth and efficiency. Proactive management and strategic planning will be crucial for the company in addressing these risks effectively.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Norfolk Southern Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Norfolk Southern Corp
Current Assets | 2.7B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 975m |
Receivables | 1.3B |
Other Current Assets | 413m |
Non-Current Assets | 40.6B |
Long-Term Investments | 4B |
PP&E | 35.4B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 1.2B |
Current Liabilities | 3.7B |
Accounts Payable | 1.6B |
Other Current Liabilities | 2.1B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 25.8B |
Long-Term Debt | 16.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 9.1B |
Earnings Waterfall
Norfolk Southern Corp
Revenue
|
12.2B
USD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-6.2B
USD
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Gross Profit
|
6B
USD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-1.6B
USD
|
Operating Income
|
4.4B
USD
|
Other Expenses
|
-2B
USD
|
Net Income
|
2.4B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Norfolk Southern Corp
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Norfolk Southern's third-quarter results showcased a resilient performance, with a 3% revenue increase to $3.05 billion, driven by a 7% rise in volume. The operating ratio improved by 570 basis points to 63.4%, highlighting effective cost management and productivity gains. Despite headwinds from fuel normalization and pricing pressures, the company generated $400 million from strategic line sales. Looking ahead, guidance suggests revenue may grow 1% year-over-year, and a seasonal fourth-quarter uptick in operating ratio is expected, with cleanup costs from Hurricane Helene estimated at $20 million affecting profits.
What is Earnings Call?
NSC Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Norfolk Southern Corp's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Norfolk Southern Corp's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
NSC Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Norfolk Southern Corp's solvency score is 41/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Norfolk Southern Corp's solvency score is 41/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
NSC Price Targets Summary
Norfolk Southern Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NSC is 275.15 USD with a low forecast of 176.75 USD and a high forecast of 313.95 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for NSC is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Norfolk Southern Corp. is a transportation company, which owns a freight railroad. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia and currently employs 18,100 full-time employees. The firm is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods primarily in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, through interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. The firm also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. The company provides an intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. Its railroad operations system reaches various manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers, transload facilities, and other businesses located in its service area. The firm is a transporter of industrial products, including agriculture, forest and consumer products, chemicals, and metals, and construction materials. The firm is also a principal carrier of coal, automobiles, and automotive parts.
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The intrinsic value of one NSC stock under the Base Case scenario is 202.19 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 269.26 USD, Norfolk Southern Corp is Overvalued by 25%.