Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
NYSE:NCLH
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one NCLH stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.04 USD. Compared to the current market price of 26.86 USD, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is Undervalued by 19%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is a prominent player in the global cruise industry, recognized for its innovative approach and commitment to delivering exceptional guest experiences. With a fleet of 28 modern ships across three distinct brands—Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises—the company caters to diverse customer preferences, ranging from affordable family vacations to luxurious voyages. Over the years, Norwegian has built a strong reputation for its "Freestyle Cruising" concept, which allows guests more freedom and flexibility in dining and onboard activities compared to traditional cruise experiences, attracting a loyal customer base and consisten...
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is a prominent player in the global cruise industry, recognized for its innovative approach and commitment to delivering exceptional guest experiences. With a fleet of 28 modern ships across three distinct brands—Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises—the company caters to diverse customer preferences, ranging from affordable family vacations to luxurious voyages. Over the years, Norwegian has built a strong reputation for its "Freestyle Cruising" concept, which allows guests more freedom and flexibility in dining and onboard activities compared to traditional cruise experiences, attracting a loyal customer base and consistently driving demand.
The company has recently navigated through turbulent waters due to the pandemic's impact on the travel and tourism sectors; however, it has successfully implemented strategies to rebound and emerge stronger. Norwegian has focused on strengthening its balance sheet, enhancing onboard health protocols, and expanding its unique offerings, such as new destinations and exclusive experiences. As global travel restrictions ease and consumer confidence returns, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. stands poised to capitalize on pent-up demand for cruising, making it an intriguing investment opportunity in a recovering market that boasts both growth potential and resilience in its operational strategy.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. operates primarily in the cruise industry and is known for its innovative approach to cruise experiences. The company has several core business segments, which include:
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Cruise Operations: This is the primary segment of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and includes the operation of cruise ships. The company offers a variety of cruise experiences under several brands:
- Norwegian Cruise Line: Known for its "freestyle cruising" concept, which offers flexible dining and entertainment options.
- Oceania Cruises: Focuses on upscale cruises with an emphasis on fine dining and destination immersion.
- Regent Seven Seas Cruises: Offers luxury cruises that provide all-inclusive services, catering to high-end travelers.
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Tourism and Shore Excursions: In addition to cruise services, the company provides shore excursion experiences at various ports of call. This segment enhances the overall cruise experience for passengers and contributes to the company's revenue through excursions, activities, and transportation at the destinations.
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Onboard Revenue: This segment includes revenue generated from onboard services and amenities, such as dining, entertainment, spa services, shopping, and gambling. Norwegian Cruise Line has consistently innovated its offerings to enhance guest experiences, aiming to increase onboard spending.
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Charters, Meetings, and Incentives: The company provides services for special events, including corporate meetings and group charters. This segment targets organizations looking for unique venues for meetings or events, capitalizing on the growing trend of combining business with leisure.
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Real Estate and Destination Development: Norwegian Cruise Line has also invested in developing and enhancing private destinations for its cruise guests, such as Great Stirrup Cay in the Bahamas and Harvest Caye in Belize. These locations are tailored to offer exclusive experiences for passengers, creating a unique value proposition.
Overall, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. focuses on enhancing customer experience across its core business segments while maintaining a strong emphasis on innovation and passenger satisfaction.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) benefits from several unique competitive advantages that enhance its position in the cruise industry relative to its rivals. Here are some key advantages:
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Freestyle Cruising Concept: NCL pioneered the Freestyle Cruising concept, which offers passengers greater flexibility in dining and entertainment options. This model allows guests to choose when and where they want to eat, contrasting with more traditional cruise lines that have set dining times. This flexibility attracts a broader demographic, including younger travelers and those seeking a more relaxed vacation style.
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Diverse Fleet and Itineraries: NCL operates a diversified fleet of modern ships, each offering various amenities and entertainment options. The company provides a range of itineraries that cater to different markets, including popular destinations in the Caribbean, Europe, Alaska, and Asia, allowing it to tap into various customer preferences.
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Innovative Onboard Experiences: NCL invests heavily in providing unique onboard experiences, such as world-class entertainment, specialty dining, and vibrant nightlife. This focus on innovation creates memorable experiences that differentiate its cruises from competitors.
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Strong Brand Loyalty and Recognition: Norwegian Cruise Line has developed a solid brand presence and customer loyalty through targeted marketing and loyalty programs. This brand equity can be a significant advantage in attracting repeat customers and new clientele.
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Investment in Modernization: NCL has consistently focused on modernizing its fleet through refurbishments and the introduction of new ships equipped with cutting-edge technology and amenities. This investment keeps the guest experience fresh and competitive against new entrants and established players.
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Strategic Partnerships and Alliances: NCL has formed strategic partnerships with various organizations, including tourism boards and local businesses, which can enhance its offerings and strengthen its market presence in key regions.
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Sustainability Initiatives: Increasingly, consumers are looking for companies that prioritize sustainability. NCL has made commitments towards reducing its environmental impact, such as investments in cleaner fuel technologies and waste reduction programs, which can appeal to eco-conscious travelers.
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Adaptability and Resilience: NCL has shown resilience and adaptability in responding to market changes and customer demands. The company’s ability to pivot its strategies during challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, demonstrates its operational flexibility compared to some competitors.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. can position itself favorably in the cruise industry and capture a significant share of the market.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NCLH) faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which could impact its operations and financial performance. Here are some key considerations:
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Economic Uncertainty: Economic downturns or fluctuations can affect consumer disposable income and travel behavior. High inflation, recession, or increased interest rates may lead customers to cut back on non-essential spending, including travel and cruise vacations.
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Health and Safety Concerns: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerability of the cruise industry to health crises. Future pandemics or outbreaks of contagious diseases can lead to cancellations, reduced bookings, and increased operational costs related to health and safety protocols.
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Fuel Price Volatility: Fluctuations in fuel prices can significantly impact operating costs. A rise in fuel prices due to geopolitical tensions or supply chain disruptions can affect profitability if these costs cannot be passed onto consumers.
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Regulatory Challenges: The cruise industry is subject to various regulations, including environmental and safety standards. Changes in regulations or failure to comply could result in fines, increased costs, or operational restrictions.
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Competition: The cruise industry is highly competitive, with several established players. NCLH must continually innovate and differentiate its offerings to attract customers amidst this competition, especially with the emergence of new and niche cruise products.
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Geopolitical Risks: Tensions or instability in specific regions can impact travel itineraries and consumer willingness to book cruises. Events such as natural disasters, terrorism, or political unrest can disrupt operations and deter customers.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: The global supply chain has faced interruptions, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Delays in obtaining essential supplies or components for ship operations and maintenance can challenge operational efficiency.
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Environmental Concerns: Increasing concerns regarding environmental sustainability may lead consumers to choose more eco-friendly travel options. NCLH must invest in sustainable practices and technologies to meet consumer expectations and regulatory requirements.
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Consumer Preference Shifts: Changes in consumer behavior and preferences, especially post-pandemic, can impact demand for cruising. There might be an increased preference for alternative vacation options that are perceived as safer or more flexible.
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Debt Levels and Financial Stability: The company has incurred significant debt to navigate the pandemic. High debt levels could limit financial flexibility and the ability to invest in growth opportunities or weather downturns.
Addressing these risks will require strategic planning, effective risk management, and adaptability to changing market conditions. Continuous monitoring of the external environment and adjusting strategies accordingly will be vital for NCLH's sustained success.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
Current Assets | 1.2B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 332.5m |
Receivables | 200.8m |
Other Current Assets | 645.9m |
Non-Current Assets | 18.6B |
PP&E | 16.7B |
Intangibles | 636.3m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 1.2B |
Current Liabilities | 6B |
Accounts Payable | 172.9m |
Accrued Liabilities | 1.1B |
Other Current Liabilities | 4.8B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 12.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 11.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 860.4m |
Earnings Waterfall
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
Revenue
|
9.4B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-5.7B
USD
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Gross Profit
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3.7B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-2.3B
USD
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Operating Income
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1.4B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-826.3m
USD
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Net Income
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549.2m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings achieved outstanding results in Q3 2024, with net yields increasing by 9%, significantly exceeding guidance. Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $931 million, surpassing expectations by over $60 million. The company anticipates a 6.9% yield growth in Q4 and increased full-year net yield guidance to 9.4%, marking a 120 basis point improvement. Furthermore, adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2024 is now set at approximately $2.425 billion, with an adjusted EPS expected to reach $1.65, a remarkable 136% increase from the previous year. This performance reflects a solid demand environment and an effective cost management strategy.
What is Earnings Call?
NCLH Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd's profitability score is 38/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd's profitability score is 38/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
NCLH Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd's solvency score is 22/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd's solvency score is 22/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
NCLH Price Targets Summary
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCLH is 28.94 USD with a low forecast of 19.19 USD and a high forecast of 33.6 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for NCLH is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
NCLH Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. engages in the provision of cruise travel services. The company is headquartered in Miami, Florida and currently employs 34,700 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2013-01-18. The firm operates the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. The firm has approximately 28 ships with 59,150 Berths. The firm's brands offer itineraries to various destinations, including Europe, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Africa, Canada, Bermuda, Caribbean, Alaska and Hawaii. Its brands offer various features, amenities, and activities, including various accommodations, multiple dining venues, bars and lounges, spa, casino and retail shopping areas and various entertainment choices. The firm's Norwegian ships offers up to 28 dining options. Its Oceania Cruises offers onboard dining, along with multiple open seating dining venues Its Regent offerings include air transportation, shore excursions, pre-cruise hotel stays, specialty restaurants, spirits and fine wines, gratuities, wireless fidelity (Wi-Fi) and other amenities.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one NCLH stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.04 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 26.86 USD, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd is Undervalued by 19%.