ArcelorMittal SA
NYSE:MT
| US |
|
Johnson & Johnson
NYSE:JNJ
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
| US |
|
Berkshire Hathaway Inc
NYSE:BRK.A
|
Financial Services
|
| US |
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
Banking
|
| US |
|
Mastercard Inc
NYSE:MA
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
Abbvie Inc
NYSE:ABBV
|
Biotechnology
|
| US |
|
Pfizer Inc
NYSE:PFE
|
Pharmaceuticals
|
| US |
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
Nike Inc
NYSE:NKE
|
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury Goods
|
| US |
|
Visa Inc
NYSE:V
|
Technology
|
| CN |
|
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
NYSE:BABA
|
Retail
|
| US |
|
3M Co
NYSE:MMM
|
Industrial Conglomerates
|
| US |
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co
NYSE:JPM
|
Banking
|
| US |
|
Coca-Cola Co
NYSE:KO
|
Beverages
|
| US |
|
Realty Income Corp
NYSE:O
|
Real Estate
|
| US |
|
Walt Disney Co
NYSE:DIS
|
Media
|
| US |
|
PayPal Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:PYPL
|
Technology
|
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
21.09
28.95
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches USD.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
|
|
Johnson & Johnson
NYSE:JNJ
|
US |
|
|
Berkshire Hathaway Inc
NYSE:BRK.A
|
US |
|
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
US |
|
|
Mastercard Inc
NYSE:MA
|
US |
|
|
Abbvie Inc
NYSE:ABBV
|
US |
|
|
Pfizer Inc
NYSE:PFE
|
US |
|
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
US |
|
|
Nike Inc
NYSE:NKE
|
US |
|
|
Visa Inc
NYSE:V
|
US |
|
|
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
NYSE:BABA
|
CN |
|
|
3M Co
NYSE:MMM
|
US |
|
|
JPMorgan Chase & Co
NYSE:JPM
|
US |
|
|
Coca-Cola Co
NYSE:KO
|
US |
|
|
Realty Income Corp
NYSE:O
|
US |
|
|
Walt Disney Co
NYSE:DIS
|
US |
|
|
PayPal Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:PYPL
|
US |
This alert will be permanently deleted.
ArcelorMittal SA
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Good afternoon, everyone. This is Daniel Fairclough from the ArcelorMittal Investor Relations team. Thank you for joining this call today to discuss the results for the third quarter 2021, which is being led by our CFO, Genuino Christino.As usual, we published our results on our website this morning alongside a presentation with detailed speaker notes. So it's the intention of the call today just to move directly to the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]Finally, I'd like to remind everyone that the disclaimers that are contained with the presentation online that do relate to this call and also remind everyone that this call is being recorded.So with that, I will hand over to Genuino.
Thank you, Daniel, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining our call today. As Daniel just said, we have already published our presentation with speaker notes this morning. So rather than repeat it, I will spend a moment to draw your attention to some key points.So first, this has been a very strong quarter for ArcelorMittal. EBITDA increased by 20% to its highest level since 2008. A further strong performance from our equity accounted JVs and associates contributed to a net result of $4.6 billion, which is the highest quarter in our history. So we enjoyed another quarter of strong cash flow despite a further investment in working capital. This allows us to add further $1 billion to the buyback program, which will continue to drive down the share count.I would just highlight in the earnings release and also in the presentation that we are giving you the shares outstanding at the period end so that you can update your models. And this is something that you can track on a weekly basis on our website as we update for the continued stock repurchases.In terms of strategic developments, this quarter has been fluctuated by encouraging announcements related to our decarbonization plans and consistent with our strategy to grow the EBITDA and free cash flow potential of ArcelorMittal, further brownfield high return projects have been approved in Brazil and Mexico. With these projects, our strategic CapEx envelope is expected to add close to $1 billion to our EBITDA numbers. So this is clearly very significant.And finally, the outlook for the business remains positive with the exception of automotive, underlying demand is good and expected to continue to improve. Steel prices remain at healthy levels, and we expect our contracted volumes to catch up to market levels as we enter 2022.So with that brief opening, we are ready to take your questions. Thank you.
Thanks, Genuino. So we -- yes, we do have a queue of questions, and we will move directly to the first question from Alain at Morgan Stanley.
Two questions from my side. The first one is on the contract negotiations. Can you confirm that you have around 5 million tonnes of annual contracts that will reset in Europe on the 1st of Jan? And how much contracts do you have outside of Europe? That's the first question.
Alain, as you know, I mean, we have close to 20% of our shipments through contracts -- yearly contracts. Out of that, I mean, about 60% is Europe. And then you have the rest split between NAFTA in Brazil -- NAFTA representing 30% and then Brazil another 10%. In Europe, most of the contracts, a little bit more than 2/3 will reset from 1st of January. You have also a large part of the -- of our contracts in U.S. also resetting, but not as high as in Europe.
Okay. That's very clear on that. And the second question is on capital allocation. I guess on most estimates, you will be in a net cash position by year-end and cash would be rapidly accumulating thereafter. Is it fair to assume that you do not intend to build a net cash position on the balance sheet and, therefore, we should think about all excess capital being returned to shareholders thereafter?
Yes, sure. Well, it's -- it can actually happen, right? I mean we are not saying that we're not going to be net debt positive, it can happen. We don't expect this to be a structural thing. But we would not rule out that situation to be there because, as you know, we do have some volatility with our working capital. So it can happen.At this point in time, we are not really changing our policy. So our policy remains the same, the one that we announced at the beginning of this year. So far, as you can see, we have been keeping our promises. So we are getting now close to $6 billion of cash returns. We have just increased the buybacks this quarter. So I think -- and we have also, in our release also, indicated that we expect cash flows to accelerate in Q4. So I think that bodes well for the cash distribution also going into 2022.
So we'll move now to Alan Spence at Jefferies.
So the Mexican hot strip mill is expected to start up before the end of the year, and you given us projections on what it could contribute on a normalized basis. But given that we're potentially 8 weeks away from it, what could that potentially do in the first quarter or the first half of next year?
Yes. So we are on track now. I mean after the delayed start, the -- with the ramp-up at the end of the year, we are expecting the first oil really at the end of December. So that's the focus right now to get it going. And then, of course, we're going to have the ramp-up during 2022. So as you know, I mean, the $250 million that we have provided, that reflects the historical margin of HRC domestic against exports.Of course, today, that is, as we know, quite different, right? So I think there is a lot of potential for us. So it's going to be really up to us how fast we can ramp up the production of the hot strip mill. I think everybody there is quite motivated.We have the teams in place, the commercial teams up and running. So I think we're going to be probably in a better position to update you on the ramp up -- the speed of the ramp-up in Q4. But at this point, we feel it's a little bit market-sensitive, really to be talking about the speed of the ramp-up. But I think the potential -- we are very excited about the potential of this project for us.
And just for a second question, CapEx guidance of $3.2 billion for the year, I assume quite a step up in the fourth quarter. Is all of that earmarked for projects you feel quite confident will be complete by the end of the quarter? Or could that number come in a little bit like first guidance?
Well, I think the CapEx at this point in time, as you can imagine, is committed. So that's why we are keeping the $3.2 billion. I think we should be there. And as we are talking a little bit about CapEx, out of this $3.2 billion, you have about $200 million that is on the -- allocated to the strategic envelopes that we have, right?So we have just announced the new 3 projects, adding to our strategic envelopes. So $200 million of that is being spent this year. And then the remaining is really on account of our maintenance, environmental projects and some of the smaller projects that we expect will this envelope -- this part of the envelope will continue going forward. And then you have, of course, the strategic envelope that we expect to be accelerating as we move into 2022 and '23.
So we'll move to the next question from Seth at Exane.
A couple of questions on the outlook for volumes and market mix, please. In your presentation, you commented on some of disruptions in Q3. You lost about 1 million tonnes with some hope it will be reversed in the Q4. Can you give us some color on the moving parts driving your confidence in the reversal of those disruptions on the production side and shipment delays?And then separately, you also lost some tonnes due to auto cancellations. We've heard that from many of your peers as well. What are you hearing from those customers as regards to potential recovery of offtake going into '22? Anything to the time line there? And can you place those tonnes elsewhere? Or are they essentially lost for the time being?
Yes. So thanks, Seth, and as Daniel said, welcome back. So yes, first of all, I think we expect, of course, to recover some of the shipments, and I think we have been clear about that. Some of the logistic issues, I mean, still linked to the flaws that we had in Europe in July. Clearly, we -- of course, we don't expect that to reoccur. So that should be okay.We also faced some issues in Brazil and CIS. And we expect that we're going to be doing better there. So we are confident that shipment should actually improve next quarter. And also, of course, the losses that we had in NAFTA because of operational issues, we don't expect a repeat of that. That's 300 kt that we expect to be recovering as we go into quarter 4, right?And then automotive, really, I think our base case is that the level of shipments will not really change much. So we are not expecting an increase in shipments to the OEMs in Q4. We expect that the situation is not really improving so much in Q4. That's our base case, we'll see.And then, of course, in 2022, I think there is hope that we will see an improvement, especially towards the second half. I think it change -- it varies from OEM to OEM. But our base case is that we will see an improvement and most likely more really towards the second half, but we will see how they manage to resolve their own issues.
If I can ask just one follow-up, please. Earlier this year, when the market was seeing really surging steel pricing, maybe we've heard from you and some peers that while like autos might have been a bit disappointed due to semis. You could sell that material to other customers very easily as customers are scrambling for tonnes. Is that still the case now? Or are you seeing buyers turning a bit more selective in their procurement? Particularly any feedback on how distributors are buying right now given some of the softness we're seeing in pricing.
Yes. Yes, sure, Seth. Well, Seth, I think the demand levels are good. I think our order books continue to be good long. So right now in Europe, we are booking well in Q1. So we don't see issues with demand other than, of course, with automotive.I think the issue this quarter was really that the cancellations came very, very late. So it was just not possible for us to redirect the production. So in that regard, we are not really concerned. I think the order book is good. And that is also true in other parts of the world as well in Brazil. It's also true, I mean, to your point that we are seeing inventory levels coming back up, normalizing. I think we are in a path to normalization, right? So -- but right now, the real demand continues to be supportive, and we are not having any problems to sell the materials right now.
So we'll move to the next question, please, from Alain William at ODDO.
Yes. I guess, so you are not giving us a free cash flow guidance for Q4 predicated namely on working capital release. How substantial can this working capital release be? And do you expect EBITDA to be an incremental positive sequentially?
So the free cash flow is not really only based on the working capital. I think it will support the free cash flow generation, right? We just reported a very good strong Q3 numbers, right, very high EBITDA levels, the best in many, many years.Q4 should also be a strong quarter for us. Of course, we talked about shipments. So we expect shipments to be better, right? So we -- our selling prices -- realized selling prices in Europe and NAFTA should continue to improve because of the lags. So that should also be supportive. But at the same time, we have also to acknowledge that we do have some headwinds. We have seen during the quarter, international prices softening.So that will have an impact in our CIS business. It will have an impact in our Brazilian business as well. We have seen some rise in costs, especially coal. We are saying, of course, I don't know, also going down, that will also have an impact in our mining division, and we have energy costs also escalating.So I think it's -- you have some positives, some negatives. We'll see where we land. I mean we don't provide a specific guidance -- quarterly guidance, as you know. But we remain very confident that Q4 should be a good quarter for us.
Sure. And if I can just ask another question related to CapEx. Could you also give us an update on the overall CapEx envelope for 2022 and onwards with the announcement you have just done and also the decarbonization CapEx, we -- just to have an idea, a number?
Well, I think we're going to be updating everyone in Q4 more specifically. But as we discussed last quarter, I think you guys already have pretty much the moving parts, right? I was saying at the beginning of the call that we have $3.2 billion for this year. And I would split that into 2 components, basically. So we have the strategic envelopes. So -- and you have the overall strategic envelope, all the projects that we have announced.You have that in our presentation. So out of the $3.2 billion, $200 million is -- can be allocated to our strategic envelope. And then you have $3 billion for maintenance, environmental and other smaller projects. So the $3 billion component will continue.So we don't expect significant change in that going forward. The strategic, very clearly, we will be spending more as we just announced the new projects, and we're going to be spending on some of these new projects in 2022, all the way to 2024 and then the missing component is decarbonization. And on that, we have already also provided our guidance, right?So we have announced as part of our second climate report how much we're going to be spending all the way to 2030, and how much we're going to be spending until 2025. So I think you have now already the components here to come up with a very good idea. And then, of course, in Q4, once we complete our budget exercise, we're going to be able to provide some more color in terms of timing and amounts. But I would not expect significant changes to what I just described.
So we'll move to the next question, please, from Patrick at Bank of America.
I just wanted to ask 2 questions. One is, can you give us an idea of the impact of energy costs on the business and maybe some sensitivities? Or just help us to understand, I suppose, how exposed you are to the spot market? And what impact it can have on costs?And then the second one is the change in Section 232, that sort of tariffs to a quota system. Have you guys looked or done any work that you can share with us on what net impact it could have on your business?
Patrick, so let me start with the energy costs. So as we know, this is really an industry issue. So everybody has been impacted and there is already an impact in our results in quarter 3. I mean we have seen power prices, natural gas prices rising during the quarter actually started even at the end of quarter 1, and we continue to see prices rising, especially in Europe during -- even after the end of the quarter.We have seen a lot of volatility more recently. So you have to start with that, that quarter 3 was already impacted. Looking forward, we don't really expect any significant impact in our business other than in Europe and in part of our CIS business. So in Europe, we are, as you know, highly integrated to power. So our flat carbon business will have minimal exposure.So our level of natural integration and hedging is quite high. It's about 70%. And then when it comes to natural gas, we have our hedging policies. So we will be covering on average 50% of our needs on 6 months rolling basis. So that should give you an idea of what you expect in Q4.And then, of course, I would just highlight that our long business in Europe doesn't have the same level of integration to power as our flat business. So there, our hedging levels are lower. They are more in the range of 30% to 40%. So you have to take that into account as well.And then in CIS, the exposure is really in Ukraine, our Ukrainian operations, where we are exposed to power and also to some extent to natural gas.And then on Section 232, well, I think we welcome the decisions that we're taking. I think they are in the right direction. I think net-net, as you know, we are a major player on both markets. Net-net, we believe that for us, it should be positive. It should allow -- so with the quarters, our expectation is that the level of exports from Europe will kind of go back to the levels that we were seeing before and that's the idea of the quarter.So clearly, we should see that. So it should keep the market maybe tighter in Europe, we'll see that, and should be displacing imports that are paying tariffs in U.S. So I think on a net basis, it should be positive for us. We continue to export to U.S. from Europe even during Section 232 even before this agreement, especially products that you cannot really find today in U.S. This is primarily long -- some long business, these jumbo beans and products like that, that we were paying the tariffs ourselves. So to some extent, we should have some small savings by not having to pay these tariffs. So I think it's clearly positive for the industry overall, I would say, and it should be positive for our business as well.
So we'll move now to a question from Luke at JPMorgan.
A couple for me. Firstly, just on iron ore. Can you just remind us how much volume has been impacted by the operational issues there, train derailment, et cetera, in Liberia? And then just sort of a sense of when -- whether we can expect those volumes to fully recover in Q4? And then previously before the change in segmentation, did you use to give annual shipment guidance for the market price in iron ore. I'm just wondering if you're in a position to be able to give some guidance on what volumes could be for 2022? That's my first question.
So Luke, so in Liberia, what happened was -- so we -- as you recall, we had -- during the second quarter, we had an accident with the locomotives -- 2 of our locomotives. So -- So that was fixed in September. So we got 2 new locos in operations. But unfortunately, at the end of the month, we also -- we had another accident -- derailment, which damaged some of the wagons.So clearly, in Q3, we were not really running or we could not produce -- we could not be at a normal run rate. Going into Q4, we will have still a minor, I would say -- minor impacts. So we're going to be increasing production quite significant so we're going to be almost back to the normal levels of production in Liberia.However, because of the wagons, we're going to maybe -- I would say that we're going to still be below by about 200 kt, but that it should not be very, very significant. So we should be -- in Q4, we should be back -- almost back to normal with our mining production and shipments.So in terms of guidance for 2022, I think we will update you next quarter as we talk about 2022. But at this point in time, as some of these projects that we have announced, of course, they will not be impacting so much in 2022. Actually, it's going to take much longer, as we know.So I would not really expect a significant change, except, of course, for the impacts of the strike that we had in Mines Canada during the second quarter. So that was -- as you recall, that was a significant impact there. We lost from memory almost 2 million tonnes, so we should be getting that back, of course. And then hopefully, we're not going to have the same operational issues from Liberia as well. So I think you can expect that production and shipments from our mining division will be improved by these factors.
Okay. That's very clear. Maybe a second question just on capital current returns and dividends. Just for next year. I mean, it's been sort of a running top-up, obviously, with today's announcement and with the H1. Is that -- is this sort of a one-off exceptional because it is such an exceptional year in terms of profitability, but if next year, I mean, it looks like it's going to be strong with contract resets, which you've spoken about, so it can be another strong year. Is a running top-up of the share buyback something we should be expecting as well into 2022 numbers?
Well, I think this quarter was relatively easy for us and actually a simple decision, Luke, So strong free cash flow, right, and very strong liquidity close to $10 billion of liquidity. We believe the share price is still undervalued. And as I said at the beginning of my -- of our discussion here, so we expect free cash flow to accelerate in Q4.So far I was a no-brainer to top up the buyback and do more and buy more of our stocks. We -- as I said also, we are not really changing the policy. We will see where we finally land in Q4, and we will apply the policy. And then we will see what happens in 2022. As we discussed at the beginning, also we remain constructive about the outlook for 2022. So I think it bodes quite well for the returns to our shareholders.
Okay. And maybe one final one quickly, if I may, just on Brazil, the recent announcement about cutting the import tariffs. If you have any comments on the potential impact that may have on pricing or the business down there, I would be interested to hear.
Yes. Well, I mean, this is something that we will -- had already been announced some time back. It's not really new. So it's -- so the import tariffs in Brazil, they were before 12% and they were reduced by 10%. So now it's 10.8%. So it's, of course, net-net, it's more negative for us, but it should not really have any significant impact.What we have -- what we are seeing in Brazil is that we have an increase of imports that are now coming down, which is also good. Demand in Brazil continues to be quite strong. We should be heading towards the high end of our guidance in terms of appearance to consumption. So we are pleased with that.So operations performing extremely, extremely well. Unfortunately, we had the logistic issues at the very end of the quarter, but we are quite pleased with the performance of our Brazilian business. And this change, even though it's small negative, we should not have really any significant impact, we hope.
So we'll move now to Christian at SocGen.
Two questions. The infrastructure program in the U.S., which seems to be coming through now, is this going to be less relevant for you now that you've sold more or less all your long products capacity? Hence, on flat, you shouldn't have as much of an impact? Or do you see that this could be useful?
Christian, I think it should be extremely positive for the business -- for the industry in U.S., and we should also benefit, right? I mean we know that -- so a bit more than a $1 trillion announced incremental we believe that it's more -- a little bit more than $500 million incremental to be spent over the next couple of years, 5 years. So that should be adding a good -- an extra level of demand in U.S. And as the market becomes tight, we also benefit.
Okay. Fair enough. And your Canadian investment in DRI, you're clearly continuing to build up your DRI capacity. Is that designed ultimately to serve your own needs? Or should we see that as intended to serve the open market?
Well, right now, I mean, this has been consumed internally, most of it. But clearly, we have the flexibility and that's the beauty of this asset. It's a Tier 1 asset, very competitive in terms of cost. The quality of the pellet is really good. And with this -- and we know that in the future, having access to DRI pellets will be also quite strategic. So I think it's a great asset for ArcelorMittal and we have the flexibility. We can use it as we are today most of it internally or if you want, we could also be selling outside. But today, it's primarily for internal consumption.
Okay. Great. And one last one, if I could squeeze that on Ilva. We're seeing you're doing a high profit level in India and Calvert. Is Ilva EBITDA profitable at this point? Or are you still building up profitability there?
Yes. Ilva is also EBITDA positive, Christian. So yes.
So we'll move now to Bastian at Deutsche Bank.
I've just got one quick question on the Monlevade project. And what you need to do here? So I'm wondering, is this $500 million investment only for the capacity increase of the steel mill and the upgrading of the downstream? Or is there also a portion included for the expansion of the mine around it? Maybe you can remind us on what exactly you're doing here.
Right. Bastian, as you know, this is a project that we originally started a couple of years back and the investments in the mine, in underwriting mine, which is just a couple of kilometers away from steel plant was already -- was done a couple of years ago.So the capacity of the mine is already right-sized for the expansion. So we're not going to need to be investing to get the capacity of that mine back up. So that was already done. So the -- what we have announced today, the $500 million, now is really to complete the upstream, the blast furnace. We will have a sinter plant and casters and the rolling mill is already erected. It's already there. So it's really now to complete the upstream.
Okay. Okay. Excellent. And just one quick follow-up on that. The mining capacity at Andrade, is it fully maxed out already in terms of the production? Or have you been holding it back because you were not able to use it in the hot strip mill and maybe logistics are not as good?
Yes. I think that's one of the constraints that we have there in logistics for the iron ore, but we were, for time to time, selling a little bit of the iron ore to some other local players. But logistics clearly are constrained there. And in this case, it was really designed for the expansion.
Okay. Perfect. Then my second question is on Ilva as well. So I think there seem to be some pretty big plans to bring larger parts of the capacity back to life. You're, obviously, still a capital partner there. So could you maybe bring us up-to-date on what the latest plans are? And maybe also how far, if necessarily, you would have a veto right if you feel that those plans are not reasonable?
Well, it's a joint control partnership, right? So we do have joint control with Invitalia, so the decisions will need to be taken by both partners. And the plans have not really changed. I mean they continue to be the same. Of course, we are in the process, same as we are doing for all of our European sites going through the plans for decarbonization. And this is something that I'm sure we're going to be communicating more when we finish these plans, and we have the opportunity to get everybody on board, have the partner also agreeing. So this is something that is progressing and we will update you guys once we have that done.
So we'll move now to a question from Myles at UBS.
Great. Could you talk a little bit about inventories, first of all, in the different regions? Are inventories now back at more normalized levels through the supply chain in Europe and North America? I mean when we look at your own kind of production and sales, clearly, there's been quite a big build by yourselves, 5 million tonne build year-to-date. So maybe just touch upon that to start with.
Yes. Yes, Myles, I think you're right. I think you are seeing, and I did mention at the beginning,that we are seeing a normalization of inventories that was initially clear in international markets. And we have seen inventories being replenished in Europe and NAFTA in Brazil. So we are clearly in a path of normalization.But as we discussed at the beginning, so real demand continues to be good. Order books continue to be still extended. So I think what we are seeing is something that, of course, has to be expected. But giving the support from the real demand, it's good.
Okay. And then maybe just thinking about these iron ore projects. And could you give us a quick update with Liberia? Is that still on track? And also obviously, with the latest approvals and iron ore prices have halved since June, is there a price point where you think, well, let's hold back on these expansions, it's just better to buy it on the market? Should we assume that this incremental 50 million tonnes of iron ore will displace kind of imports or sort of seaborne supply, the third-party supply?
Yes, Myles. Yes, that's a very good question. And in all these projects, they have been approved, taking into account very conservative pricing assumptions, right? So you would need to see really a significant drop in prices to get -- for us to get to a point where we would probably have to change our plans. We don't really see that happening.I think what we get from this mine, first of all, you have very large reserves. So these are assets that we own already, right? So we have large reserves, quality materials. So the type of cost that we can get out of this mines is going to be extremely difficult for us to get elsewhere. So they are very strategic for us, and we are very comfortable to go ahead even seeing the correction in the market prices that we have today, right?And in some cases, in Mexico, for instance, we are just bringing back the capacity of the mine to what it used to be, right? And it will displace, in this case, imports. And the production of Serra Azul, the 4.5 million tonnes, will also have its own market, which is our own operations in Mexico. Of course, we will have the flexibility if you want you to be in the seaborne market, but the idea of the project is to supply our Mexican operations so that we are fully integrated in Mexico.And then, of course, you have Liberia. Part of that material can be consumed also in our own operations. Europe would be the natural market for that, but the quality of the materials will be such that we're going to be also in a position to be in the seaborne market. In Liberia, we are progressing. The project is progressing well. We had the NDA signed during the quarter. So we are now waiting for final approval from the Congress, but it's progressing well. We are on track there, Myles.
Okay. And what did your integration get to once these sort of -- all these projects have ramped up?
Well, right now, so without these projects, we are a little bit below 60, so 60%. And then I think you can do the math. I mean, so it's -- we're going to be adding another 10 in Liberia, right? And in Serra Azul today, we are producing about 1.5, so we have to add 3. And in Las Truchas in Mexico, we have to add another 1.
So we'll move now to a question from Richard Hatch at Berenberg.
Just a question on the updated apparent steel consumption outlook for China, which you've reduced since Q2. Can you just talk a little bit more about what's driven you to kind of adjust that given the fact that you raised it at the Q2 level and perhaps we've talked a little bit about the outlook for 2022, but any other thoughts there from a China perspective would be much appreciated.
Right. So I will ask Daniel to comment on that.
Sure. Thanks, Genuino. So yes, it's -- there's been a clear slow -- sharp slowdown in demand in China during the third quarter. So you're right, it was only back in second half of July that we were raising our estimates. We were looking for full year demand of low single-digit growth. And now we're actually forecasting a slight correction in apparent demand this year out of China.So it's been driven by factors, I think, that we all appreciate. There's been a sharp slowdown in the steel-intensive property sector. And just generally, a lot of constraints have been made due to power availability in China. So that has put just a general break on industrial production.And so if you look at the stats for Q3, the economy was clearly only barely growing based on the official stats and steel consumption was significantly down relative to the second quarter. I think what's really interesting about what's occurring in China is that this lower demand is actually being matched by lower steel production.So the government is strictly enforcing the production constraints and forcing production cuts on the domestic industry. Production had been very strong in the first half as demand was. And now in the second half, you're seeing these production cuts really biting. I think last month production was down 20% on a year-on-year basis.If you look at production for Q3 as a whole, I think it was down about 9% relative to Q2. So as a result, despite the weak demand and because of the production constraints, because of the removal of the VAT rebate, rather than seeing exports increase and a threat to ex-China steel conditions, we're actually seeing exports dropping. So China exports were down 20% in Q3 relative to Q2. And I think we're confident that, that's going to be a continuing theme, and we will see much lower exports for the second half as a whole.So I think the slowdown in China in terms of steel demand, normally that would be problematic for us and a source of concern for ex-China steel conditions. But because of the lower exports, it's actually a net positive. Clearly, we are seeing an impact in iron ore markets and that's a headwind for our mining business. But you could argue it is a tailwind for our steel business.Okay. Great. So we'll now move to a question from Carsten at Crédit Suisse.
What prevented you from an even better EBITDA in the third quarter were clearly the weaker shipments. You mentioned the regions -- the reasons, logistics, weather, et cetera, et cetera. What I'm interested in is how much of those kind of shipments, which were apparently produced, will actually be moved over to the fourth quarter? That's the first one.The second question I have is on the ACIS shipments, in particular, because they're not auto exposed. And hence, the weakness here seems to be more weakness in the market. Where does it come from? Which segments in particular in the ACIS markets are weaker?And the third question I have is on the net working capital release in the fourth quarter. Because of all these kind of shipment delays, what is your best guess or maybe you have the number? How much did it actually drive your net working capital up in the third quarter and, obviously, on the opposite, how much could it actually be released when you actually release those volumes into the market?
Yes. Sure, Carsten. Let me take one, the first question on how much of the shipments we can expect to see back in Q4. I think if you look at our presentation and what we are trying to suggest to you is that clearly, the loss is coming from operational issue, we would expect to get that back, right? We don't -- we are not expecting some of the operational -- the reliability issues.So the accidents actually, in this case, weather-related to reoccur, right? And so that's about 300 kt. And then you have debottlenecks, which is about 600 that we expect to get back. So we talked about some of the reasons. The floods in Europe that we, of course, also don't expect that to reoccur. So we would expect that to -- we would expect you to see that.And then we had some seasonality and some -- and you can call it a little bit of weakness in CIS, you're right. I mean -- and we have about 400 kt, 200 in Europe, 200 in CIS. In CIS, what we saw was that with the introduction of the export taxes in Russia, as you know, we sell sizable volumes from our Kazakhstan operations in Russia. And we saw the Russian market, for some time, trying to understand this change. So the demand was relatively in the regions where we operate a little bit weaker.So going forward, really, I think I would count with the production losses, the debottlenecks and then we will see automotive we discussed. We not really expect that to improve in quarter 4. So we are not counting that to reverse.So I think I touched on CIS as well. CIS, really, the issues were really more in Kazakhstan, the flat business, the Russian markets and/or the export market as well. We also faced logistic issues there as we discussed.The long business did quite well, Ukraine and so was good. And in terms of the working capital, so we invested $2.9 billion this quarter, right? And out of the $2.9 billion, about $1 billion is on account of the higher volumes, the shipments that we could not ship. We produced, but we didn't ship.So that's -- I guess, that becomes a good reference. I think our focus really in terms of working capital is to make sure that by the end of the year, we keep our rotation days stable. I mean, as you recall, we put a lot of efforts in 2020 to make sure that we could really get to efficiency. So we're efficient and we achieved that. And this year, I think it's going pretty well as well. Most of the investments that you see is really on account of prices was only now in quarter 3 that you have these extra volumes that we would expect that to reverse.
Perfect. That helps a lot. Maybe one quick question on ACIS and your coal operations there. Because we have seen some lower volumes historically in Kazakhstan, at least in 2019 and 2020 with regard to the cost plus production. Given where the coal prices are, did you also see an improvement in your coal volumes over there?
Well, I think the operations -- our coal operations, they have been relatively stable, Carsten. And part of the coal that we produce there goes to our operations in Ukraine. So of course, we have been trying to optimize the production as much as possible. That has been the drive. But there is not so much any significant change there.
So I think we have maybe a couple of questions left, and we'll take the first from Grant at Bloomberg Intelligence.
My questions have been answered.
Okay. No problem, Grant. So we will move to -- actually, it's -- so we're going to move to Andrew Jones at UBS, and then I think we may have one follow-up after that.
Yes. Just firstly on India. We haven't talked about that very much. Can you just give us a bit of an update as to what you're thinking in terms of the timing of any potential expansions and what are your thoughts of that in that respect? I mean the operation is obviously building up a lot of cash, given prices. I would guess that you probably would be wanting to pull the trigger sooner than later. So a bit more detail on that will be useful.And also just a clarification point on, I guess, Carsten's previous question. Just 4 shipments in the fourth quarter. I mean what I heard was that you've lost about 300,000 tonnes in NAFTA, about 200,000 in Europe and CIS each. Is that essentially volume that you lost that you'll not only get back that volume shifts into 4Q? And can you give us, I guess, a ballpark for what shipments should be in total for the fourth quarter?
Andrew, so first one on India. I think -- as you said, I think the company continues to perform extremely well. As you can see, strong EBITDA performance. It has been the case now the entire year, so a strong performance from our Indian JV.There is a lot going on the ground in terms of getting ready for the announcements of the expansion, and we have been very vocal about it. We want to develop the business, grow the business. We have clear ambitions to first debottleneck the existing flows, get to this 8.6 million tonnes and then take it to 14 million tonnes. I think we are getting -- we should be making formal announcements relatively soon, and then we will be able to update you in terms of CapEx and timing. But I think that's, of course, a very high focus of the organization to get that ready.More recently, we completed the second with a third pellet plant. So we are now -- we have capacity now to produce 20 million tonnes. We made some progress also with our integration into iron ore. So a lot going on there, very positive development. And I'm sure we will be discussing much more detail very, very soon on the projects there.On your second question, I'm not going to be providing very specific guidance in terms of shipments. So I think what we -- and I hope it's clear to everybody that we expect to do better. I think what the decline that we saw in Q3, clearly several components, and we talked about each one of them. Again, we expect that production bottlenecks will reverse. Then we will see an improvement in all of our regions, actually, right? And so that's -- I would stop there, Andrew, because otherwise I'll need to give you the numbers.
So I think we have one follow-up question from Patrick at Bank of America.
Yes, I just was looking at the decarbonization plans that you guys have announced. And I suppose wanting to think more broadly or longer term around the '25 and 2030 targets. Now that you've actually announced some agreements with Government of Canada and Belgium and Flanders as well, do you think that a 50% split of CapEx between kind of industry and government support is still a reasonable number to go for? And I suppose linked to that, is that what's holding up the kind of finalization of Dofasco and Gent? Just exactly who's going to pay for how much?
Daniel, do you want to take this one?
Yes. Thanks, Genuino. So yes, it's a good question, Patrick. And I think everything that we put in our climate action report in the summer is still valid. So within that, we talked about our plans to 2030, how much we needed to invest to achieve those plans and our expectation of how much we were asking in terms of public support for those plans to make them valuable in the current environment. And that still very much stands.So I think what we've obviously announced over the past quarter is some very positive developments. It's clear that we have some good plans and some good projects. The fact that we were able to announce the -- for example, the project at Dofasco where we're going to fully move away from coal and move to DRI and electric-based technologies. The fact that we could have announced that alongside the government, that's clearly a very positive development, showing the support that we have there. But all of these things just take the sort of final things to tie down. And one of those things is obviously working with the provincial government as well to get the support from the Ontario government.And the very positive development that we've had in Gent for decarbonizing the plant there. Again, we announced that, that is being supported by the government. But that needs to be obviously approved at the EC level before that kind of gets formalized and we can move forward.And so yes, I think we stick by everything that we said in our report in the summer. We're making progress. We've got -- we're clearly -- we feel leading the industry in terms of developing the -- our plans, developing our processes, all of -- everything on the product side, including the green steel certificates. We're announcing projects. We're working on the various different work streams. We're being partners in some very important initiatives, not just within the sector really, but global initiatives on decarbonization. So yes, I think this is a very positive thing for us, and we look forward to updating you further in the coming months.
Yes, I think maybe my mistake is expecting governments to move at the same speed as you guys. So, yes.
Great. So that's our last question, Genuino. So I don't know if you have any closing remarks.
So I just wanted to thank everyone for taking the time to join our call, and we'll see you guys, speak to you soon. Thank you.