Marathon Oil Corp
NYSE:MRO
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one MRO stock under the Base Case scenario is 34.68 USD. Compared to the current market price of 28.32 USD, Marathon Oil Corp is Undervalued by 18%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Marathon Oil Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent exploration and production company that stands as a significant player in the North American energy landscape. With a strong focus on the United States, particularly in areas such as the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford Shale, Marathon Oil is strategically positioned to leverage the growing demand for energy resources. The company operates with a commitment to sustainable practices while maximizing shareholder value through a balanced production portfolio. Investors are attracted to its disciplined capital allocation, demonstrating a robust financial profile marked by consistent cash flow generation, a solid balance sheet, and a history of sharehold...
Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent exploration and production company that stands as a significant player in the North American energy landscape. With a strong focus on the United States, particularly in areas such as the Permian Basin and the Eagle Ford Shale, Marathon Oil is strategically positioned to leverage the growing demand for energy resources. The company operates with a commitment to sustainable practices while maximizing shareholder value through a balanced production portfolio. Investors are attracted to its disciplined capital allocation, demonstrating a robust financial profile marked by consistent cash flow generation, a solid balance sheet, and a history of shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases.
As the energy sector continues to evolve, Marathon Oil is making bold strides in enhancing its operational efficiency while navigating the complexities of market dynamics. The company has embraced advanced technologies to optimize production processes, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in a rapidly changing landscape. With a keen focus on responsible operations and environmental stewardship, Marathon Oil is not just about extracting resources; it's about ensuring long-term viability in an energy transition era. This strategic approach, combined with its robust asset base and experienced management team, positions Marathon Oil as a compelling investment choice for those looking to partake in the future of energy in a responsible and profitable manner.
Marathon Oil Corporation operates primarily in the oil and natural gas industry and is involved in the exploration, production, and marketing of crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs (Natural Gas Liquids). The company's core business segments can be generally categorized as follows:
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U.S. Exploration and Production: This segment focuses on the exploration and production of oil and natural gas within the United States. Marathon Oil has significant operations in key resource plays including the Bakken formation in North Dakota, the Eagle Ford formation in Texas, and the Permian Basin, among others. This segment is characterized by a focus on high-return, low-cost production, and technological advancements to enhance recovery rates.
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International Exploration and Production: Marathon Oil also engages in exploration and production activities outside the United States, with interests in various countries, including offshore projects. The company's international operations may encompass both conventional and unconventional resource areas, contributing to its overall production capacity.
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Oil Sands: Marathon Oil has investments in oil sands projects, which involve the extraction of bitumen from oil sands deposits. This segment may represent a smaller portion of the company's overall production profile compared to its U.S. and international segments but is a strategic focus for diversifying its resource base.
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Midstream: While primarily an exploration and production company, Marathon Oil may also engage in limited midstream activities, such as the transportation, processing, and storage of oil and gas. This segment supports the company's upstream operations and can provide additional revenue streams.
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Sustainability Initiatives: In recent years, Marathon Oil has emphasized sustainability within its operations. This includes efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, enhance environmental stewardship, and invest in renewable energy initiatives, which are increasingly becoming part of the core business focus as global energy markets evolve.
Overall, Marathon Oil Corp is focused on maximizing its efficiency and returns on capital while navigating the changing landscape of the energy sector. The company aims to leverage its strong asset base and technical expertise to achieve sustainable growth.
Marathon Oil Corporation, like many companies in the oil and gas sector, seeks to establish competitive advantages that can provide it with a favorable position in the marketplace. Here are some potential unique competitive advantages that Marathon Oil may hold over its rivals:
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Strategic Asset Base: Marathon Oil has a strong portfolio of high-quality upstream assets, particularly in key shale regions such as the Permian Basin and the Bakken formation. This strategic positioning allows the company to generate higher yields and lower costs compared to competitors who may have less favorable asset locations.
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Operational Efficiency: The company emphasizes operational excellence and continuous improvement in its drilling and production processes. This commitment to optimizing costs while maintaining output levels allows Marathon Oil to enhance profitability, especially during volatile price periods.
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Focus on Capital Discipline: Marathon Oil has a history of prioritizing free cash flow and maintaining a disciplined approach to capital expenditures. This focus helps distinguish the company from competitors who may engage in more aggressive spending, allowing Marathon to return capital to shareholders and invest strategically in profitable projects.
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Strong Financial Position: Maintaining a robust balance sheet and a favorable credit rating can provide Marathon Oil with a competitive edge, particularly in accessing the capital markets for funding new projects or acquisitions. A strong financial foundation enables the company to weather downturns in oil prices better than rivals with weaker financial metrics.
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Technological Innovation: Marathon has invested in advanced technologies and innovations in drilling and production techniques. This focus on technology can lead to improved extraction methods, reduced costs, and enhanced recovery rates, giving the company an edge over less technologically advanced competitors.
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Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) Initiatives: Emphasizing sustainability practices and minimizing environmental impact can attract socially conscious investors and customers. Marathon’s commitment to responsible resource development may resonate well with stakeholders compared to rivals with weaker ESG profiles.
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Flexible Operating Model: Marathon Oil's ability to pivot between different markets and adapt its production strategy based on prevailing economic conditions allows it to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities that may arise due to market fluctuations or regulatory changes.
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Strong Marketing and Distribution Network: Having established relationships with key distributors and end-users can enhance Marathon’s ability to sell its products and gain favorable terms compared to competitors who might have less robust networks.
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Experienced Management Team: A seasoned and knowledgeable management team can make better strategic decisions, guiding the company through complex market conditions and positioning it advantageously against competitors.
By leveraging these advantages, Marathon Oil can position itself competitively within the oil and gas sector, even amidst the challenges and volatility that often characterize the industry. However, it is important to monitor ongoing developments as market conditions and competitive dynamics can change.
Marathon Oil Corp, like many companies in the oil and gas sector, faces a range of risks and challenges that could impact its operations and financial performance in the near future. Here are some key risks and challenges that are particularly relevant:
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Commodity Price Volatility: Fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices can significantly affect revenue and profitability. The company's financial health is closely linked to market conditions, which can be influenced by global supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC decisions.
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Regulatory Changes: Changes in environmental regulations, energy policies, and taxation can create uncertainty and potentially increase operating costs. Stricter regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy could impact the traditional oil industry.
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Environmental and Safety Risks: Oil and gas extraction inherently involve risks such as spills, leaks, and other accidents. Environmental incidents can lead to costly clean-ups, legal liabilities, and reputational damage.
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Technological Disruptions: Advances in energy technology, such as renewable energy and energy storage, could lead to a shift away from fossil fuels. Marathon Oil must adapt to these changes while balancing its investments between traditional oil and renewable energy sources.
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Geopolitical Risks: Political instability in key oil-producing regions can disrupt supply chains, affect pricing, and create operational challenges. Additionally, sanctions on certain countries may limit access to markets and resources.
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Operational Risks: Exploration and production operations are subject to various risks including operational failures, labor disputes, and unforeseen technical challenges. These can lead to increased operational costs and delays in production.
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Access to Capital: Fluctuations in the financial markets can affect the availability and cost of capital. If investor sentiment shifts away from fossil fuel investments, Marathon Oil could face challenges in securing financing for new projects.
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Investor Sentiment and ESG Factors: There is a growing focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) factors among investors. Companies in the oil and gas industry may face pressure to improve their sustainability practices, and failure to adapt could impact investment and stock performance.
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Transition to Renewable Energy: As the global energy landscape shifts toward sustainability, oil companies will need to diversify their portfolios. The speed at which Marathon Oil adapts to this transition could be critical to its long-term success.
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Pandemic and Economic Recovery: Ongoing impacts from global events such as the COVID-19 pandemic can affect global oil demand and supply chain operations, potentially leading to a slow recovery in oil prices.
Navigating these risks requires strategic planning, investment in technology and sustainability initiatives, and effective risk management practices. Adapting to the changing energy landscape while maintaining operational efficiency will be crucial for Marathon Oil’s future success.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Marathon Oil Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Marathon Oil Corp
Current Assets | 1.5B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 134m |
Receivables | 1.1B |
Other Current Assets | 214m |
Non-Current Assets | 17.9B |
Long-Term Investments | 432m |
PP&E | 17.2B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 286m |
Current Liabilities | 2.2B |
Accounts Payable | 1.4B |
Accrued Liabilities | 96m |
Short-Term Debt | 180m |
Other Current Liabilities | 500m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 5.8B |
Long-Term Debt | 4.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Marathon Oil Corp
Revenue
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6.7B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-881m
USD
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Gross Profit
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5.8B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-3.8B
USD
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Operating Income
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2B
USD
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Other Expenses
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-683m
USD
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Net Income
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1.3B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Marathon Oil Corp
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q1 2024, Marathon Oil reported strong financial and operational performance, underpinned by efficient capital execution and a return of $350 million to shareholders, representing 41% of cash flow from operations. With oil production at 181,000 barrels per day and expectations for increased production in Q2, the company reaffirmed its annual guidance. Marathon also highlighted the success of its extended lateral drilling program and refracs, anticipating sustainable financial growth with projected $2.2 billion in free cash flow for 2024, yielding mid-teens percentages. Moreover, the company continued advancing its E.G. Gas Mega Hub, benefiting from global LNG pricing shifts and forecasted EBITDAX of $550-$600 million.
What is Earnings Call?
MRO Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Marathon Oil Corp's profitability score is 68/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Marathon Oil Corp's profitability score is 68/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
MRO Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Marathon Oil Corp's solvency score is 46/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Marathon Oil Corp's solvency score is 46/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
MRO Price Targets Summary
Marathon Oil Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MRO is 32.29 USD with a low forecast of 27.27 USD and a high forecast of 44.1 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for MRO is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
MRO Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Marathon Oil Corp. engages in the exploration, production, and marketing of liquid hydrocarbons and natural gas. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas and currently employs 1,531 full-time employees. The firm is focused on the United States resource plays, which includes the Eagle Ford in Texas, the Bakken in North Dakota, Sooner Trend Anadarko Basin Canadian and Kingfisher Counties (STACK) and South-Central Oklahoma Oil Province (SCOOP) in Oklahoma and Northern Delaware in New Mexico. The firm operates through two segments: United States and International. The United States segment explores, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas in the United States. The International segment explores, produces and markets crude oil and condensate, NGLs and natural gas outside of the United States as well as produces and markets products manufactured from natural gas, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol, in Equatorial Guinea (E.G.). Its subsidiaries include Alba Associates LLC, Alba Equatorial Guinea Partnership, L.P., Alba Plant LLC and AMPCO Marketing, L.L.C.
Officers
The intrinsic value of one MRO stock under the Base Case scenario is 34.68 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 28.32 USD, Marathon Oil Corp is Undervalued by 18%.