Moog Inc
NYSE:MOG.A
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one MOG.A stock under the Base Case scenario is 159.44 USD. Compared to the current market price of 222.56 USD, Moog Inc is Overvalued by 28%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Moog Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
Economic Moat
Moog Inc
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Moog Inc., a pioneering player in the aerospace and defense sectors, has spent over six decades establishing itself as a trusted provider of precision control systems and components. Founded in 1951, the company has leveraged its innovative engineering capabilities to deliver solutions that power everything from fighter jets and space exploration vehicles to industrial applications and medical devices. With a diverse portfolio that includes motion control technology, Moog exhibits resilience and adaptability in a rapidly changing technological landscape. This robust product offering not only caters to high-demand markets but also positions Moog to capitalize on emerging opportunities driven...
Moog Inc., a pioneering player in the aerospace and defense sectors, has spent over six decades establishing itself as a trusted provider of precision control systems and components. Founded in 1951, the company has leveraged its innovative engineering capabilities to deliver solutions that power everything from fighter jets and space exploration vehicles to industrial applications and medical devices. With a diverse portfolio that includes motion control technology, Moog exhibits resilience and adaptability in a rapidly changing technological landscape. This robust product offering not only caters to high-demand markets but also positions Moog to capitalize on emerging opportunities driven by advancements in automation, electric propulsion, and expanding aerospace activities.
For investors, Moog presents a compelling growth story bolstered by a strategic focus on research and development, consistently reinvesting a significant portion of its revenue back into innovation. The company operates through three main segments: Aircraft, Space and Defense, and Industrial Systems, which collectively contribute to a well-balanced revenue stream. Moog's commitment to quality and reliability has earned it a loyal client base, including leading aerospace manufacturers and government defense contractors. As global demand for advanced aerospace technologies and defense capabilities continues to rise, Moog Inc. stands poised to benefit from favorable market trends. With a strong track record of financial performance and a prudent approach to capital allocation, Moog represents an attractive investment opportunity for those looking to participate in high-growth sectors with a legacy of excellence.
Moog Inc. is a diversified global company that designs and manufactures high-performance motion control systems for various industries. The company's core business segments can be categorized as follows:
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Aerospace and Defense:
- Aerospace: Moog provides motion control systems for both commercial and military aircraft. This includes flight control systems, actuation systems, and various components that enhance aircraft safety and performance.
- Defense: The company develops systems for military vehicles, naval systems, and missile systems, focusing on precision and reliability in critical defense applications.
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Industrial:
- Moog offers motion control solutions for industrial automation and machinery. This segment includes products such as servo motors, controllers, and actuators for applications in manufacturing, robotics, and machine tool industries.
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Space and Launch:
- Moog is involved in the design and production of components for space exploration and satellite systems. This includes propulsion systems, attitude control systems, and mechanisms for launch vehicles and satellites.
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Medical:
- The medical segment focuses on motion control systems and components for medical devices. This includes applications in imaging systems, surgical robots, and other equipment that requires high precision and reliability.
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Test and Simulation:
- Moog provides solutions for testing and simulation in various industries, including automotive and aerospace. This segment includes products such as hydraulic simulation systems and testing rigs designed to evaluate performance under real-world conditions.
These core segments enable Moog to leverage its expertise in motion control technology across a variety of high-growth and technologically advanced markets, positioning the company well for future growth and innovation.
Moog Inc. has several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the aerospace and defense, industrial, and medical markets:
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Technical Expertise and Innovation: Moog has a strong focus on engineering and technology, with a history of innovation in motion control systems. This expertise allows them to develop specialized solutions that often meet unique client needs, giving them an edge in complex applications.
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High-Quality Products: Moog is known for its commitment to quality and reliability, which is crucial in aerospace and defense sectors where failure is not an option. This reputation enhances customer loyalty and allows for premium pricing on their products.
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Diverse Product Portfolio: The company offers a wide range of products across various industries, including aerospace, defense, and industrial sectors. This diversification helps mitigate risk and reduces dependency on any single market.
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Strong Customer Relationships: Moog has established long-term partnerships with key clients, including major defense contractors and commercial aircraft manufacturers. Such relationships foster customer loyalty and often lead to repeat business.
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Agility and Customization: Moog is flexible in its production processes, allowing for rapid customization of products to meet specific customer requirements. This agility can be a significant advantage over larger competitors with less adaptable operations.
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Operational Excellence: The company employs advanced manufacturing techniques and continuous improvement processes, such as Lean Six Sigma, to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, which can translate into competitive pricing and improved margins.
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Intellectual Property: Moog holds a significant portfolio of patents and proprietary technologies, providing a technological barrier to entry for competitors and allowing them to maintain a competitive edge in their core areas.
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Focus on R&D: Moog invests heavily in research and development to drive innovation and stay ahead of market trends. This commitment ensures that they can respond to evolving customer needs with cutting-edge solutions.
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Global Reach with Local Expertise: Moog operates in multiple countries, providing them with a global footprint. Their local subsidiaries can cater to regional markets, understanding local regulations and customer preferences, which is critical in industries with stringent compliance requirements.
These advantages contribute to Moog's ability to compete effectively in a challenging and rapidly changing market landscape.
Moog Inc., as a prominent player in the aerospace, defense, and industrial sectors, faces a variety of risks and challenges that could impact its operations and financial performance in the near future. Here are some key considerations:
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Economic Uncertainty: Fluctuations in the global economy can affect demand for Moog's products. Economic downturns can lead to reduced defense budgets and decreased orders in commercial aerospace.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues, exacerbated by events like the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, may impact the availability of raw materials and components, leading to production delays and increased costs.
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Regulatory Changes: Changes in government regulations, especially in the aerospace and defense sectors, can impose additional compliance costs or restrict certain business operations, impacting profitability.
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Technological Change: The rapid pace of technological advancements requires continual investment in research and development. Moog must keep up with innovations, particularly in automation and intelligent systems, to remain competitive.
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Competition: The aerospace and defense sectors are highly competitive. Moog faces pressure from both established companies and new entrants who may offer more innovative solutions or lower prices.
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Geopolitical Risks: Given its substantial involvement in defense, Moog is exposed to geopolitical risks, including tensions between nations, trade disputes, and military conflicts, which can influence government spending in defense and international sales.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As a key provider in defense and aerospace, Moog is vulnerable to cybersecurity threats that can compromise sensitive information and disrupt operations.
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Labor Shortages and Workforce Management: The tight labor market, particularly in skilled technical jobs, can make it difficult to recruit and retain qualified personnel, impacting productivity and innovation.
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Environmental Regulations: Increasingly stringent environmental regulations can affect manufacturing processes and costs. Adapting to sustainable practices may require capital investment.
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Customer Concentration: A significant portion of Moog's revenue could be derived from a limited number of customers, particularly in defense. Loss of contracts or changes in customer relationships can adversely impact financial performance.
Moog must adopt strategic planning and risk management practices to navigate these challenges effectively while leveraging growth opportunities in emerging markets and technologies.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Moog Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Moog Inc
Current Assets | 2.2B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 50.6m |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 902.4m |
Non-Current Assets | 1.9B |
PP&E | 943.7m |
Intangibles | 893.7m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 57.9m |
Current Liabilities | 988.4m |
Accounts Payable | 266.3m |
Accrued Liabilities | 256.5m |
Other Current Liabilities | 465.6m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 1.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 244.5m |
Earnings Waterfall
Moog Inc
Revenue
|
3.6B
USD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-2.6B
USD
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Gross Profit
|
995.3m
USD
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Operating Expenses
|
-613.7m
USD
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Operating Income
|
381.6m
USD
|
Other Expenses
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-177.8m
USD
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Net Income
|
203.8m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Moog Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
The company's fiscal year '23 guidance anticipates a sales increase of 7% to $3.3 billion, 9% when adjusted for divestitures and foreign currency movements. Strong sales growth across all sectors—particularly commercial aircraft and space and defense—are driving this performance. Adjusted earnings per share are expected to rise by 3% to $5.75. Operating margins are up, with Industrial Systems and Aircraft Controls seeing a 190 and 70 basis points increase respectively, driven by pricing initiatives. However, due to a third-quarter increase in physical inventories, the company now forecasts fiscal year '23 free cash flow at negative $60 million, a significant revision from the previous break-even expectation.
What is Earnings Call?
MOG.A Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Moog Inc's profitability score is 51/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Moog Inc's profitability score is 51/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
MOG.A Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Moog Inc's solvency score is 56/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Moog Inc's solvency score is 56/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
MOG.A Price Targets Summary
Moog Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MOG.A is 227.21 USD with a low forecast of 222.2 USD and a high forecast of 236.25 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for MOG.A is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Moog, Inc. is a designer, manufacturer, and systems integrator of precision motion and fluid controls and systems for applications in aerospace and defense and industrial markets. The company is headquartered in East Aurora, New York and currently employs 14,000 full-time employees. The firm operates through three segments: Aircraft Controls, Space and Defense Controls, and Industrial Systems. The Aircraft Controls segment designs, manufactures and integrates primary and secondary flight controls for military and commercial aircraft and provides aftermarket support. The Space and Defense Controls segment provides controls for satellites, space vehicles, launch vehicles, armored combat vehicles, tactical and strategic missiles, security and surveillance and other defense applications. The Industrial Systems segment provides customized machine performance components and systems utilizing electrohydraulic, electromechanical and control technologies in applications involving motion control, fluid control and power and data management across various markets.
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The intrinsic value of one MOG.A stock under the Base Case scenario is 159.44 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 222.56 USD, Moog Inc is Overvalued by 28%.