Southwest Airlines Co
NYSE:LUV
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one LUV stock under the Base Case scenario is 32.88 USD. Compared to the current market price of 31.97 USD, Southwest Airlines Co is Undervalued by 3%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Southwest Airlines Co
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Fundamental Analysis
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Southwest Airlines Co., founded in 1967, has transformed air travel with its unique business model and commitment to low fares and exceptional customer service. As the nation’s largest domestic airline by passenger numbers, Southwest has built a reputation for reliability and efficiency, operating a point-to-point route network that enables it to serve numerous destinations without the complexities of traditional hub-and-spoke systems. The airline's use of a single aircraft type, the Boeing 737, streamlines operations, reduces maintenance costs, and allows for quicker turnarounds, contributing to its ability to offer lower fares. From its legendary free checked baggage policy to a no-frills...
Southwest Airlines Co., founded in 1967, has transformed air travel with its unique business model and commitment to low fares and exceptional customer service. As the nation’s largest domestic airline by passenger numbers, Southwest has built a reputation for reliability and efficiency, operating a point-to-point route network that enables it to serve numerous destinations without the complexities of traditional hub-and-spoke systems. The airline's use of a single aircraft type, the Boeing 737, streamlines operations, reduces maintenance costs, and allows for quicker turnarounds, contributing to its ability to offer lower fares. From its legendary free checked baggage policy to a no-frills approach that prioritizes customer satisfaction, Southwest has cultivated a loyal customer base, evident in their ongoing profitability and robust performance in a competitive aviation landscape.
For investors, Southwest Airlines presents a compelling opportunity characterized by its resilient financial performance and consistent operational efficiency. The airline focuses on maintaining a strong balance sheet, with a history of avoiding excessive debt, an essential factor in the often-volatile airline industry. Despite the challenges posed by external factors such as fuel price volatility and economic downturns, Southwest's strong brand loyalty and strategic growth initiatives position it favorably for sustained long-term growth. Investors should appreciate the company’s steadfast commitment to its core values and its ability to adapt to market changes without compromising its fundamental principles, making it a solid contender in the aviation sector.
Southwest Airlines Co. operates primarily within the airline industry and has some core business segments that contribute significantly to its overall operations and profitability. Here are the key core business segments of Southwest Airlines:
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Passenger Services: This is the most significant segment, representing the majority of the airline's revenue. Southwest Airlines offers scheduled air transportation services for passengers primarily within the United States and to select international destinations. The company is known for its low-cost model, no-frills service, and straightforward pricing structure. The airline focuses on short to medium-haul flights, catering to both leisure and business travelers.
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Freight Services: Although a smaller segment compared to passenger services, Southwest also generates revenue through freight transportation. They offer cargo services for shipping goods and packages but typically do this through their existing passenger flight network, which is less emphasized compared to dedicated cargo carriers.
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Ancillary Revenue: Southwest has diversified its revenue stream through various ancillary services, such as charging for early boarding, offering upgraded boarding options, and selling travel-related products such as travel insurance and hotel bookings. While the focus is on providing low-cost fares, ancillary services help enhance profitability.
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Loyalty Program: The Rapid Rewards program serves as a loyalty and rewards system for frequent flyers and plays an essential role in customer retention and engagement. Members earn points for flights and other purchases, which can be redeemed for future travel, increasing customer loyalty and repeat business.
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Partnerships and Codeshare Agreements: While Southwest has a unique business model that emphasizes direct point-to-point routes rather than traditional hub-and-spoke systems, it has entered into partnerships and limited codeshare agreements to offer customers additional travel options. This segment helps expand its market reach and enhances customer convenience.
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Operational Efficiency and Cost Management: An additional segment worth mentioning is its focus on operational efficiency. Southwest Airlines is known for its effective cost management strategies, which include maintaining a single aircraft type (Boeing 737) to reduce maintenance and training costs, quick turnaround times at airports, and a streamlined organizational structure.
By effectively managing these core segments, Southwest Airlines has established itself as a leader in the low-cost airline landscape, maintaining profitability through a combination of customer-centric services and disciplined management practices.
Southwest Airlines has several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the airline industry:
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Low-Cost Structure: Southwest operates under a low-cost carrier model, which allows it to offer competitive pricing. The airline minimizes costs through a simple fleet structure, operating a single type of aircraft (Boeing 737), which reduces maintenance, training, and operational costs.
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Point-to-Point Route System: Unlike many traditional airlines that primarily use a hub-and-spoke model, Southwest employs a point-to-point routing system. This reduces layover times, increases operational efficiency, and provides passengers with more direct routes, leading to higher customer satisfaction.
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Strong Brand Loyalty: Southwest has cultivated a positive corporate culture known for its customer service, friendliness, and fun atmosphere. This strong brand loyalty results in repeat business and a dedicated customer base.
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No-Frills Service with Flexibility: While Southwest maintains low fares, it also differentiates itself by offering a more flexible travel experience, such as no fees for changing flights and two free checked bags, which appeals to budget-conscious travelers.
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Efficient Operations: The airline’s emphasis on operational efficiency, with quick turnaround times between flights (often around 25 minutes), maximizes aircraft utilization and enables a higher number of flights per day, enhancing revenue potential.
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Strong Network of Secondary Airports: Southwest often flies to secondary airports that are less congested than primary airports. This strategy allows for easier access to travelers, often results in fewer delays, and can be more cost-effective.
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Positive Employee Relations: The company maintains strong relationships with its workforce, characterized by high employee morale and low turnover rates. Engaged employees contribute to better customer service and operational performance.
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Innovative Use of Technology: Southwest has invested in technology to streamline operations and enhance the customer experience, including a user-friendly mobile app for booking and check-ins, improving overall efficiency and customer satisfaction.
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Diversified Revenue Streams: In addition to passenger fares, Southwest generates additional revenue through various ancillary services, such as business travel, cargo services, and co-branded credit card partnerships.
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Resilient Financial Position: Historically, Southwest has maintained a strong balance sheet with prudent financial management, allowing the airline to withstand economic downturns better than many of its competitors.
These competitive advantages collectively allow Southwest Airlines to thrive in a highly competitive industry, maintaining profitability while delivering value to customers.
Southwest Airlines Co. faces several risks and challenges in the near future, including:
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Operational Challenges:
- Staffing Shortages: Recruitment and retention of qualified staff, including pilots and flight attendants, can be a significant challenge, especially in the wake of the pandemic.
- Operational Disruptions: Weather-related disruptions, mechanical failures, or technology issues can impact flight schedules and customer satisfaction.
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Economic Factors:
- Inflation: Rising fuel costs and other operational expenses can squeeze profit margins.
- Recessions: Economic downturns can lead to reduced consumer spending on travel, impacting ticket sales.
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Competition:
- Market Share Pressure: Competing airlines are continually enhancing their services and pricing strategies, making it essential for Southwest to maintain its competitive edge.
- Low-Cost Rivals: New entrants or existing low-cost carriers can provide fare pressure, affecting Southwest’s pricing strategy.
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Regulatory and Compliance Risks:
- Safety and Security Regulations: Adherence to stringent safety and regulatory requirements is critical; lapses can lead to fines and loss of public trust.
- Environmental Regulations: Increasing focus on sustainability and emissions regulations may require adjustments to operational practices or fleet investments.
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Customer Expectations:
- Service Expectations: Post-pandemic, customer expectations for service quality have increased. Failures in maintaining high service levels can lead to lost business.
- Cost Sensitivity: With rising costs, balancing pricing and maintaining brand loyalty could be challenging.
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Technological Changes:
- Digital Transformation: The need to continually invest in technology for booking systems, customer service, and operational efficiency can be both a risk and an opportunity.
- Cybersecurity Threats: Increasing reliance on technology makes the airline vulnerable to cybersecurity threats, which could disrupt operations and damage reputation.
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Geopolitical Events:
- Travel Restrictions: Ongoing geopolitical tensions or public health crises can lead to sudden travel restrictions or decreased demand for air travel.
- Fuel Supply Chain Disruptions: Global events can disrupt fuel supply, leading to volatility in fuel prices.
Addressing these challenges requires strategic planning, risk management, and ongoing investment in technology, personnel, and customer service.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Southwest Airlines Co
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Southwest Airlines Co
Current Assets | 11.9B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 9.4B |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 1.4B |
Non-Current Assets | 22.9B |
PP&E | 20.9B |
Intangibles | 970m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 1.1B |
Current Liabilities | 13.5B |
Accounts Payable | 1.5B |
Accrued Liabilities | 2.3B |
Other Current Liabilities | 9.7B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 10.9B |
Long-Term Debt | 5.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 5.9B |
Earnings Waterfall
Southwest Airlines Co
Revenue
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27.4B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-8.2B
USD
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Gross Profit
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19.2B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-19.6B
USD
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Operating Income
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-361m
USD
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Other Expenses
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312m
USD
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Net Income
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-49m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Southwest Airlines Co
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In its Q3 earnings call, Southwest Airlines highlighted progress on its transformation plan, achieving 99.3% completion factor during hurricane disruptions. Revenue surged nearly $7 billion, with unit revenue up 2.8% year-over-year, as tactical initiatives improved operations. Despite increased costs (CASM-X up 11.6%), guidance anticipates ongoing pressures, expecting CASM-X to rise 11%-13% in Q4. The airline projects a 3.5%-5.5% increase in revenue per available seat mile (RASM). Over the next few years, Southwest aims for a 15% return on invested capital (ROIC) alongside a $4 billion EBIT boost from strategic changes by 2027.
What is Earnings Call?
LUV Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Southwest Airlines Co's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Southwest Airlines Co's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
LUV Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Southwest Airlines Co's solvency score is 52/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Southwest Airlines Co's solvency score is 52/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
LUV Price Targets Summary
Southwest Airlines Co
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LUV is 30.09 USD with a low forecast of 19.19 USD and a high forecast of 37.8 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for LUV is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
LUV Insider Trading
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Profile
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Description
Southwest Airlines Co. engages in the operation and management of a passenger airline. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas and currently employs 55,100 full-time employees. The firm provides point-to-point service. The firm offers ancillary services, such as Southwest's EarlyBird Check-In, upgraded boarding, and transportation of pets and unaccompanied minors, in accordance with Southwest's respective policies. EarlyBird Check-In provides customers with automatic check-in and an assigned boarding position before general boarding positions become available. The company offers its fare products directly to customers through its Internet Website, Southwest.com. The company has approximately 728 Boeing 737 aircraft in its fleet and 121 destinations in 42 states, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and ten near-international countries, such as Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one LUV stock under the Base Case scenario is 32.88 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 31.97 USD, Southwest Airlines Co is Undervalued by 3%.