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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one KMX stock under the Base Case scenario is 56.55 USD. Compared to the current market price of 81.6 USD, Carmax Inc is Overvalued by 31%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Carmax Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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CarMax Inc., founded in 1993, has revolutionized the used car sales industry with its innovative business model that emphasizes transparency and customer satisfaction. By eliminating the traditional haggling process, CarMax offers a straightforward and hassle-free shopping experience for consumers. The company's expansive inventory spans thousands of vehicles across various makes and models, allowing customers to explore options both online and in-store. With its signature 7-day money-back guarantee and rigorous vehicle inspection processes, CarMax fosters trust and loyalty among buyers. This approach has not only set it apart from competitors but has also positioned it as the largest used c...
CarMax Inc., founded in 1993, has revolutionized the used car sales industry with its innovative business model that emphasizes transparency and customer satisfaction. By eliminating the traditional haggling process, CarMax offers a straightforward and hassle-free shopping experience for consumers. The company's expansive inventory spans thousands of vehicles across various makes and models, allowing customers to explore options both online and in-store. With its signature 7-day money-back guarantee and rigorous vehicle inspection processes, CarMax fosters trust and loyalty among buyers. This approach has not only set it apart from competitors but has also positioned it as the largest used car retailer in the United States.
As an investor, CarMax represents an intriguing opportunity within the automotive retail sector. The company has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, benefiting from a robust demand for used vehicles, particularly in times of economic uncertainty when consumers prefer more budget-friendly options. Its strategic expansion into e-commerce, coupled with investments in digital platforms, highlights CarMax’s commitment to adapting to changing consumer behaviors. Additionally, the company's operational efficiency, backed by a strong balance sheet, enhances its competitive edge. For those looking to capitalize on a company that has harnessed innovative strategies in a traditional industry, CarMax stands as a compelling candidate with substantial long-term growth potential.
CarMax Inc. operates primarily in the used car retail segment and has several core business segments that contribute to its overall revenue. These segments can be broadly classified as follows:
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Used Vehicle Sales:
- This is the primary segment of CarMax, accounting for the majority of its revenue. CarMax sells a wide variety of used vehicles with a focus on providing a no-haggle pricing policy, which simplifies the purchasing experience for customers. The company prides itself on offering a comprehensive selection of vehicles, accompanied by detailed vehicle history reports and quality inspections.
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Wholesale Vehicle Sales:
- CarMax also engages in wholesale vehicle sales, where it sells vehicles that it acquires from trade-ins and auctions to other dealerships. This segment allows the company to maximize the value of its inventory while also providing a source of revenue through auction sales.
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Finance and Insurance:
- In addition to vehicle sales, CarMax offers financing options to its customers through third-party lenders, as well as its in-house financing division, CarMax Auto Finance (CAF). This segment includes the provision of extended service plans and other insurance products, contributing additional revenue.
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Vehicle Service and Maintenance:
- Although not the primary focus, CarMax also provides certain vehicle maintenance and repair services. This segment enhances customer satisfaction and loyalty by offering ongoing support after the sale of a vehicle.
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E-commerce and Digital Sales:
- CarMax has invested heavily in its online presence, offering a streamlined digital platform for customers to view inventory, value trade-ins, and complete purchases online. This segment has grown in importance, especially as consumer preferences shift towards online shopping.
CarMax’s success in these segments is driven by its commitment to customer service, transparency, and a unique business model that differentiates it from traditional dealerships.
CarMax Inc. has carved out a unique position in the used car market, leveraging several competitive advantages over its rivals:
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No-Haggle Pricing: CarMax offers a straightforward pricing model without the typical negotiation process found in traditional car dealerships. This transparency builds customer trust and improves the buying experience.
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Extensive Inventory: CarMax maintains a large inventory of used vehicles across various makes and models, providing a wide selection for customers. Their use of a centralized inventory system allows customers to access cars from different locations.
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Customer-Centric Experience: CarMax emphasizes a high level of customer service, including flexible financing options, a 7-day money-back guarantee, and a 90-day limited warranty. This focus on customer satisfaction leads to repeat business and customer loyalty.
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Strong Brand Reputation: Over the years, CarMax has established a strong brand associated with reliability and transparency. This reputation attracts customers looking for a trustworthy place to purchase used vehicles.
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Streamlined Process and Technology: CarMax employs technology to streamline the buying and selling process, such as online sales and car evaluations. This efficiency appeals to tech-savvy customers and enhances the overall purchasing experience.
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Nationwide Presence: With locations across the United States, CarMax benefits from a vast geographic reach, making it convenient for customers to find and test cars.
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Consignment Services: CarMax offers a service for individuals to sell their cars directly to the company, which can be more convenient than private sales. This facilitates a quick and easy sales process for customers.
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Strong Operational Efficiency: The company has honed its operations to minimize costs and maximize sales. This operational efficiency allows for competitive pricing without sacrificing margins.
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Market Data Insights: CarMax utilizes extensive market data to guide purchase decisions and inventory management, ensuring they are offering vehicles that reflect current market demand.
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Focus on Sustainability: As more consumers consider environmental impact, CarMax's efforts to implement sustainable practices within its operations may attract eco-conscious buyers.
By leveraging these competitive advantages, CarMax Inc. remains a significant player in the used car market and differentiates itself from traditional dealerships and other competitors.
CarMax Inc. faces several risks and challenges in the near future:
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Economic Conditions: Fluctuations in the economy, including recession fears, inflation, and changing consumer spending habits, can impact car sales. Higher interest rates could also reduce consumer financing options and dampen demand for vehicles.
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Technological Disruption: The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and advancements in automotive technology mean CarMax must adapt to a changing market landscape. Failing to effectively incorporate EVs or new technology could diminish their competitiveness.
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Inventory Management: CarMax's business model relies heavily on maintaining an optimal inventory of used cars. Economic uncertainty or shifts in consumer preferences could lead to difficulties in sourcing vehicles or result in excess inventory.
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Competition: The used car market is increasingly competitive, with both traditional dealerships and online platforms like Carvana and Vroom gaining market share. CarMax must innovate and differentiate its offerings to maintain its position.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Global supply chain issues, particularly those affecting new and used vehicles, can lead to inventory shortages or increased costs, impacting sales and profitability.
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Regulatory Changes: Changes in regulations regarding vehicle emissions, safety standards, or financing can impose additional costs or operational challenges. This includes evolving standards for EVs and associated incentives.
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Consumer Preferences: Shifts toward shared mobility solutions or increasing popularity of subscription services may affect the traditional car ownership model, challenging CarMax's core business.
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Data Security Concerns: As CarMax continues to leverage technology and online sales channels, risks related to data security and privacy become more significant. Cyberattacks can lead to consumer distrust and legal repercussions.
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Brand Reputation: As with any retail business, maintaining a strong brand reputation is crucial. Negative reviews, recalls, or customer service issues could impact sales and customer retention.
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Market Cycles: The used car market is subject to economic cycles, which can lead to volatility in pricing and profit margins. Having a robust strategy to manage these cycles will be essential.
CarMax will need to proactively address these risks and adapt its strategies to remain competitive and maintain growth in the evolving automotive landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Carmax Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Carmax Inc
Current Assets | 4.9B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 524.7m |
Receivables | 228.1m |
Other Current Assets | 4.1B |
Non-Current Assets | 22.4B |
PP&E | 4.3B |
Intangibles | 141.3m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 18B |
Current Liabilities | 2.2B |
Accounts Payable | 1B |
Accrued Liabilities | 518.3m |
Other Current Liabilities | 629.5m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 19B |
Long-Term Debt | 18.3B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 643.6m |
Earnings Waterfall
Carmax Inc
Revenue
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25.9B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-23.2B
USD
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Gross Profit
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2.8B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-2.6B
USD
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Operating Income
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123.2m
USD
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Other Expenses
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294.4m
USD
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Net Income
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417.5m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Carmax Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In Q2 FY'25, CarMax saw a 5.1% increase in retail unit sales and a 13% rise in net earnings per share to $0.85, despite industry-wide auto loan loss pressures. Total revenue was $7 billion, down 1%, with retail gross profit per used unit stable at $2,269. The company bought 3% more vehicles, achieving a record purchase from dealers. CarMax's omnichannel retail experience grew to 15% of retail unit sales. CarMax Auto Finance's income was $116 million, down 14%, due to a $52 million increase in lifetime loss estimates. Looking ahead, CarMax expects continued improvement and remains optimistic about sales growth and margin efficiency.
What is Earnings Call?
KMX Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Carmax Inc's profitability score is 42/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Carmax Inc's profitability score is 42/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
KMX Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Carmax Inc's solvency score is 39/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Carmax Inc's solvency score is 39/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
KMX Price Targets Summary
Carmax Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KMX is 81.85 USD with a low forecast of 58.58 USD and a high forecast of 110.25 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for KMX is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
KMX Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Dividend Yield
Description
CarMax, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the retail of used vehicles and wholesale of vehicle auction operators. The company is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia and currently employs 32,647 full-time employees. CarMax is a retailer of used vehicles. The firm operates through two segments: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance (CAF). The firm's CarMax Sales Operations segment consists of all aspects of its auto merchandising and service operations, excluding financing provided by CAF. CarMax's CAF segment consists of its own finance operation that provides vehicle financing through CarMax stores. CarMax operates approximately 225 used car stores in over 106 United States television markets. The firm's products and services include retail merchandising, wholesale auctions, extended protection plans (EPPs), reconditioning and service, and customer credit. The firm's CarMax Sales Operations segment sells used vehicles, purchases used vehicles from customers and other sources, sells related products and services, and arranges financing options for customers. CAF operates in the auto finance sector of the consumer finance market.
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The intrinsic value of one KMX stock under the Base Case scenario is 56.55 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 81.6 USD, Carmax Inc is Overvalued by 31%.