Kimberly-Clark Corp

NYSE:KMB

Earnings Call Analysis

Improving Market Share and Stable Volumes

The company is set to improve market share, having underperformed last year with a global decline of approximately 40 bps. The supply constraints, especially in North America, have impacted performance, but the situation is improving. Notable gains include an increase of 20 share points in South Korea over the last 5 years, and substantial growth in the quarter for other major markets. Looking ahead, organic sales growth is expected to be balanced across the year, but the first quarter may see softer volumes. Throughout the year, innovation and market programs are slated to boost volumes, with organic sales growth and margins improving after the first quarter. Advertising investment increased to over 5% of net sales in the previous year but will rise at a slower pace going forward. Personal Care is projected to grow mid-to-high single digits, while other segments should see low single-digit growth, leading to an overall volume mix-led growth plan. However, pricing is factored at around 200 basis points due to currency movements in hyperinflationary economies.

Kimberly-Clark Embarks on a New Chapter for Growth and Stability

Kimberly-Clark opened the call with a tone of optimistic realism, highlighting strong performance in 2023 and a foundation set for continued growth. Even in the face of mixed economic indicators, such as robust employment and wage growth against the backdrop of rising interest rates, the company is confident in the enduring demand for their products and their strategy to elevate categories and expand markets. CEO Michael Hsu emphasized the company's pride in the past year's achievements but noted their aspiration for further improvement, setting the stage for detailing long-term strategic priorities in a future event in March.

Robust Sales Outlook Amidst Category Resilience and Positive Consumption Trends

The guidance for organic sales growth suggests robust low to mid-single-digit increases. This outlook factors in a substantial contribution from hyperinflationary markets, reflecting resilient underlying category growth across personal care, consumer tissue, and professional segments. Despite some uncertainty in broader economic conditions, the company cites a sustained consumer interest in premium products and expectations of continued category resilience with ample opportunities for penetration and per-user revenue gains. Specifically, the company experienced a 6% increase in North American category value in Q4 and an 8% increase for the year, indicating solid performance and the potential for durable growth.

Volume Recovery and Pricing Strategies to Navigate Inflationary Pressures

Executives expect volume to pick up from the second quarter onwards, offsetting hyperinflationary impacts. They predict pricing to contribute around 2%, aligned with the trends observed in the final quarter of the previous year. The discussion unveiled an intention to shift back to a volume mix-driven plan, reminiscent of their pre-pandemic approach. Strategies for dealing with inflation include localized, surgical pricing adjustments as needed while striving for volume growth against a backdrop of recent improvements and strategic brand plans.

Cost Management and Productivity Initiatives to Mitigate Input Cost Volatility

Kimberly-Clark is forecasting a more manageable cost headwind of around 100 basis points for the year, implying a more stable cost environment even as they navigate remaining inflationary challenges in distribution, logistics, and labor. Ongoing productivity efforts, including the $325 million FORCE program and a $6 billion cumulative identified productivity over two decades, are core to their cost management strategy. The company is building a proactive multiyear pipeline of initiatives, projecting continued strong productivity that will positively impact the bottom line.

Investment in Advertising and Capabilities for Future Growth Balance

The company has increased its advertising spend to over 5% of net sales, amounting to around a $200 million increase over the previous year. While advertising will continue to expand in the current year, the pace will be roughly half of that in 2023. Overheads, including investments in capabilities, are projected to remain largely flat in dollar terms year-over-year. This indicates a focus on impactful advertising, particularly in the digital realm, where returns are considerably higher—a strategy central to the company's growth trajectory and market share ambitions.

Forecast Breakdown by Division and Expectations for Personal Care Growth

Looking ahead, Kimberly-Clark projects mid-to-high single-digit growth in the Personal Care division and low single-digit growth in the other two segments. This growth algorithm considers a significant pricing element due to currency fluctuations in hyperinflationary economies. Explaining their targeted investments, efforts are aimed primarily at advertising, capitalizing on the robust returns from digital campaigns and ensuring competitive positioning in promotions. As they navigate the uncertain economic landscape, their aim is a balanced mix of volume and mix, reinforced by strong innovations and robust category management.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good morning, and welcome to Kimberly-Clark's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Question-and-Answer session. I will now hand the call over to Chris Jakubik, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

[Chris Jakubik, executive]

Thank you, and hello, everyone. This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark. And welcome to our Q&A session for our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results. During our remarks today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures today.

These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com. Before we begin, I'm going to hand it over to our Chairman and CEO, Mike Hsu, for a few quick opening comments.

[Michael Hsu, executive]

Okay. Thank you, Chris. And first of all, I'd like to just welcome Chris to Kimberly Clark. This is first earnings call with us. But is probably triple-digit number in earnings calls that he's done in his career. So welcome to KC, Chris. I'd like to just start by sharing that we're really proud of our performance in 2023. But of course, we're not yet satisfied. We've built a strong foundation and position Kimberly-Clark for our next chapter of growth.

These past few years, we've consistently invested to build a consumer-centric organization while navigating unprecedented challenges. Our strategy to elevate our categories and expand our markets is working and we're on an exciting path and positioned to deliver durable growth and returns for shareholders in our next chapter. And as I -- as we mentioned in our prepared remarks, we're looking forward to detailing our strategic priorities, our long-term algorithm and outline the key initiatives behind our plans in March. And so with that, I'd love to open it up for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley.

[Dara Mohsenian, analyst]

I just wanted to touch on the organic sales growth guidance for next year, low to mid-single digits seems pretty robust relative to the 3% this quarter and just starting out the year lower in Q1. Obviously, you mentioned the 200 basis points from the hyperinflationary markets next year in the prepared remarks. So that's part of it. Maybe, a, give us a sense of how much those markets contributed in Q4? And then just as you look at the base business ex those markets, maybe some commentary on pricing versus volume and what you're expecting and if you could also just touch on market share performance in Q4, the U.S. tracked channels are weaker.

So just any update on how you're feeling about your market share performance and plans on that front as you look out to '24 would be helpful.

[Michael Hsu, executive]

Thanks, Dara. Maybe I'll start with maybe as you kind of tee up there, the state of the consumer particularly in developed markets, I'd say our underlying category growth across personal care, consumer tissue and professional remains pretty robust. Both in absolute terms. And I think if you look across relative to other broader staples.

Our products, I'll remind you, our daily essentials and unlike some categories, substitution of our categories is fairly low. On top of that, we still have a lot of room for penetration and revenue per user gains. And so we're working on that. So overall, I think the consumer right now still remains despite what you might argue is a fairly mixed kind of consumer picture, the consumer remains pretty healthy. We're confident in our ability to elevate our categories and expand the markets further.

The consumer picture, I said, is somewhat mixed. Employment remains strong. Wage growth is up. But I think it's also probably fair to say from our side that the full effects of all the rate hikes and all the economic policy impacts are not fully materialized in the consumer. So that all said, the categories were pretty robust in North America, just to give you a reference point. North America category value was up 6% in the fourth quarter and up 8% for the year.

So that's a pretty solid number. Again, I'll track that up to the fact that there's low substitution in our categories. And that makes our categories a lot more resilient than other staples categories that I've worked in the past. We still also do see pretty good demand for premium products and we're seeing that in a broad array of markets, including North America, surprisingly, you might say in a market like Argentina, still Brazil, China, of course.

And so we're very enthused about our approach with elevate our categories and expanding our markets, and we believe that's still working and still appropriate even though we recognize we've got to be able to offer great value at all price tiers. So I'll pause. I know that I threw a lot at you. So I know there are multiple parts to your question. I don't know, Dara if you wanted to. Yes. Nelson, you want to?

[Nelson Urdaneta, executive]

Yes, there was a question on the decomposition of our top line growth for the year and how it relates to Q4. Let me address that a little bit, Dara. I think to recap the fourth quarter was a quarter in which we attained flat volumes and pricing was only 2% of the contribution with mix being one. That 2% was largely hyperinflationary economies. And as you think about this year, this is going to be a year in which we see volumes beginning to pick up from Q2 on and we expect pricing to be in that 200 basis point range right in line with what we saw in the last quarter of the year.

And that pricing is really going to be driven based on what we expect today by hyperinflationary economies. So the profile is really on the pricing side, very similar to what we saw in Q4.

[Dara Mohsenian, analyst]

Okay. And the volume pickup as we go through the year is that more pricing moderates? Is it that you've seen some early signs in whatever the geographies or product categories are that you're seeing some volume recovery? Or is it more just sort of a natural assumption over time as pricing recovers.

[Michael Hsu, executive]

We're pretty pleased, Dara. I think we've made very, very solid progress on volume and consumers responded very favorably on our categories. So I'd say, first of all, our next chapter, which I think we're turning the page and shifting to a volume mix-driven plan, which is returning to that, which -- that was kind of our approach pre-pandemic. And so we're going back to that. So contribution of pricing to help offset the record inflation that we've got is going to recede and has already started receding.

There might be a need to address some particular higher costs in some markets or locations, but that's going to be pretty surgical. And will likely reflect if there's pricing reflect inflation at local levels. But overall, I think we're feeling very good about driving the volume on our business. We have seen our businesses start to improve, including the North America on a share perspective in the fourth quarter and believe we have the right mix and growth drivers in our plan to drive the business going forward.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays.

[Lauren Lieberman, analyst]

I wanted to just shift focus maybe a little bit to talk a bit about the cost picture and FORCE savings. Both of those benefit from deflation and FORCE savings in the fourth quarter were a bit lighter, I think, than expected or certainly that we've modeled. So it's rare to see that. So if you could just maybe provide some perspective on why and the outlook moving forward and maybe how FX plays into that, if at all?

[Nelson Urdaneta, executive]

Sure. So let me start, Lauren, by saying that this phase of cost recovery and supply chain stabilization, we would think of it as largely behind us. A lot of the disruptions and the super cycle that we saw. Our expectation is for that to not happen in the foreseeable future and certainly in 2024 based on what we know today.

So thinking about costs as a whole, first, our aggregate cost basket is easing in inflation but there's no deflation because there are several components that I'd like to unpack. We expect the '24 cost environment to be more stable but we will still remain at higher levels of costs, mostly in line with what we've seen in this super cycle these past 3 years. As you know, core commodities like pulp, resin, energy and dollar terms are expected to be somewhat favorable following the trends that we saw in the back half of last year.

However, if you think of other components of our cost basket like distribution, logistics and labor inflation, that's actually going to remain a headwind in this year in '24, and that's pretty much offsetting the tailwinds that we're seeing on the core commodities, which leaves us with currency-related inflation on imported materials largely impacting our emerging market hyperinflationary markets, which will need to be addressed and we've been addressing that over the past years, and we intend to do that in the course of the year.

Just as a perspective, the overall net cost headwind when you include all of the components, is projected to be around 100 basis points for the year, which we see as much more manageable than what we've seen in the past. We've got very strong productivity plans and a little need to price outside of local inflation in these hyperinflationary markets.

Turning to FORCE and our productivity targets. The outlook we provided shows that we feel very good about our ability to continue generating strong productivity. You saw that we ended last year with FORCE results of around $325 million. And it's important to highlight that over the last 20 years, FORCE has delivered a little north of $6 billion of cumulative identified productivity that has flown to the P&L.

More recently, and we've been talking about it even at your conference in September, we're evolving our culture towards an end-to-end integrated cost management perspective, really focused on gross productivity.

We're building a proactive multiyear pipeline of initiatives. We see our pipeline of gross productivity out to 36 months pretty strong, and that should flow to the bottom line, and this is reflected in the outlook we're providing today. I'm excited to talk more about in our transition to gross productivity and integrated margin management at our March meeting when we talk about the future a little more.

[Lauren Lieberman, analyst]

Okay. Great. And then if I could just also follow up a bit on Argentina. So I guess a couple parts of this question. Path-forward for Argentina, whether the devaluation of the monetary assets is onetime in nature? Or do we need to build this in? Or how do we think about that in the next kind of quarter or 2 of the year? And then also overall, this kind of risk management around FX because this time last year, there was also kind of a bit was in hyperinflation, but a bit of a surprise to the Street in terms of the expected impact from transactional FX.

And that's the case again this year. So path forward in Argentina, the devaluation monetary assets piece and then the overall risk management on currency and transaction.

[Michael Hsu, executive]

Okay. Lauren, thanks for the question. Let me start with the overall and the path forward. I will say, hey, we're staying in the course. But we're of course going to balance potential against the inherent volatility in the business. And so we're going to remain prudent. I do want to say I'm really inspired and we've got people operating in some difficult conditions in Argentina and also other markets. So as a company, we're really inspired by the impact our employees make in these markets and really proud to shoulder that responsibility of serving our consumers in these difficult conditions.

At the same time, I will say we will not just hang around where conditions become untenable. And then, of course, you would double click and say, what's untenable. I'll let you know when we see it. But certainly, if we can make product or if we can't convert currency, at some point, that becomes somewhat untenable. But right now, we're working our way through it. In multiple markets like Argentina, like Ukraine, and so again, that's the high-level answer on path forward is we're staying the course.

[Nelson Urdaneta, executive]

Yes. And Lauren, to build on what I told around the pricing and hyperinflationary. So a few things as we think of last year, the full year impact of the mark-to-market of our net monetary position in other income and expense lines.

[Lauren Lieberman, analyst]

Sorry, keep going.

[Nelson Urdaneta, executive]

Okay. So the impact above the operating profit line was $115 million for the year and about $70 million for the quarter. That netted off some of the interest income that we perceive on cash balances in Argentina led to a net impact of about $0.16 on EPS in the year and about $0.09 of EPS in the quarter. As we fast forward to this year, we are projecting about half of that impact, both in the other income and expense line and then on EPS.

We will see a little bit of more of that impact in the first half of the year. It's reflected in part of our outlook but that's what's projected at this stage based on what we know.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Jason English from Goldman Sachs.

[Jason English, analyst]

A couple of questions. I want to bring it back to volume. And specifically, I want to double-click on your professional segment where volume was a little bit weaker than we expected this quarter. If I zoom out and just look since 2019, so pre-COVID, volumes down like 23%, 24% and I know you mentioned rightsizing in prepared remarks today. So my question is what's going on there? Where has all the volume gone?

And how your margins suggest you're not getting meaningful deleverage -- how have you been able to offset the associate deleverage effects of that lost volume.

[Michael Hsu, executive]

As always, Jason, you're right on the issue. So a good one. But I think if you look at the margin profile of the business, I think the team has done a great job addressing I would say, the volume softness or volume change in the environment. And a couple of different things. One, we had to adjust rapidly to this work-from-home demand environment that kind of came on with the advent of COVID, as you might recall. And you may recall our washroom business, which is the majority of our business in K-C Professional tends to be higher development in offices.

And so that's really where the volume has gone. I would say right now, that volume on a category basis is running about 80% to 85% of what it was pre-pandemic. And it's not going to bounce back that quickly the reality is. And I'm not sure you're in your office at Goldman in New York every day. And so that's the same thing. As we look around our offices, we're not fully back in, right? And so it's partial at best. So that's, I would say, an ongoing challenge in that business. But I think our team has adjusted to that and treat it as a reality.

We have rightsized some of the business and some of it was from a cost perspective. The reality is we were doing a lot of volume and co-packing a lot of volume on the external market. And so I'd say we haven't had to address fixed costs as much as you might have thought of. And so -- and I think that's reflected -- so I think the team has done a good job of recapturing margins from -- both from a price perspective, mix perspective. And also while growing volumes at the same time behind great innovations like our ICON dispenser, which I believe is really the best dispenser in that side of the business.

So anyways, so I think the team has done a great job, and I think you can see that in the margin and definitely have recovered from pre-'19 margins on that business and actually exceeding at this point.

[Jason English, analyst]

That's helpful. I appreciate that. And I think another headwind to volume this year, you were talking about earlier in the year, but not talking about so much of late were supply constraints. So can you remind us where they were, how sizable they were? I assume the lack of conversation on them suggest they're alleviated now, but can you confirm that?

And I would imagine that cycling those supply constraints should prove to be a tailwind, particularly in the first half of next year. Is that right? And how large of a tailwind?

[Michael Hsu, executive]

One could only hope, Jason. We can only help. But actually, I think -- first of all, a couple of things. Yes, we did have some pretty significant supply constraints in our North American consumer business for the majority of last year, definitely through Q3. And that had to do with some supply conditions with external suppliers, for example, on packaging that made availability difficult across personal care, also some in our Kleenex business, I think we've talked about a key ingredient that we weren't able to get access to that we developed a secondary source to during the course of the year.

So those were kind of the big factors. I would say, I think we mentioned that -- on the last quarter call, we didn't make the biggest deal about it. We were working through this challenge with our suppliers, with our customers, and they are fully aware of it, but it's not something that we communicated publicly. That off. But I would say for the better part of the year, that did suppress our share performance.

I'm not saying that was the only driver, but I think it was a fairly significant driver. We have addressed those issues. I'd say our commercial execution is going to be stronger than ever. We're really past all these constraints that I talked about. And our consumption is moving in the right direction. Our share has moved in the right direction in the fourth quarter as well in North America.

[Jason English, analyst]

Got it. Good stuff. I'll pass it on and look forward to see you in March.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Anna Lizzul from Bank of America.

[Anna Lizzul, analyst]

I want to follow up on market share in light of your exposure to private label and in your track channels, private label share has been creeping up in some of your categories. Just wondering how are you thinking about brand investment with marketing versus promotions in order to maintain and grow market share?

[Michael Hsu, executive]

Okay. Yes. Great question, Anna. Core to our business, I'd say a couple of things. First of all, on market share, I'm confident that our market share performance this year is going to improve from last year. Definitely, I was not happy with our performance on share last year for perspective, on a weighted basis, which we use as an internal metric, we don't talk about as much probably on a weighted basis. We were down globally about 40 bps, okay? So not falling off a cliff, but not what we want.

So we want to be growing weighted share as well. On a cohort basis, which was the one we usually talked to you all about, we're up or even in just under 40%. And so that's below our goal of 50% or more, of which I'd say we were kind of jumping over that bar back in 2021. So I think we are where we are today, what we're going to build from here. I'd say a couple of things. All that said, probably the biggest challenge has been for us in North America related to the supply constraints that I just talked about.

I did want to know, we've had strong gains and really, really strong market positions in most of our largest markets. Just for reference, in South Korea, which is our second largest business, we're up probably about 20 share points over the last 5 years. And in Australia and New Zealand, we're up somewhere between 10 and 15 share points over the last 5 years. Andrex in the quarter, which is our fifth largest business was up over 300 bps on share just in the quarter. So we feel very good. And one more on China. I think we're approaching almost 300 bps again on the Huggies in the quarter.

So I think we feel very good about our gains in our largest markets. The exception has been North America, what we have underperformed, but that is improving. A lot of that I think it was just what I discussed with Jason, we had some severe supply constraints where we weren't able to run our brand plans in the way that we wanted to run last year. We saw solid improvement in Q4.

We were up or even in 6 of 8 categories and sequentially improved in 5 of 8. And so we feel pretty good about our trajectory. As I said just a while ago, our commercial execution capability has never been better and we're going to gain share by bringing the right innovations with our customers, we're excited about executing well and bringing sustainable cost advantage to our business.

You mentioned private label. On the note, I would recognize that, yes, we have seen an uptick in private label in the past quarter or two. I think if you look at the scanner data, it was I think it was up or even in 7 of 8 categories. I'd say on private label, we are very, very committed to having a superior value proposition in every price tier that we're in. So versus 2019, if you look on a longer perspective, private label is down a bit and the premium segment is up significantly. And even today, the premium segment continues to grow.

So it is clear that the value tier has picked up a bit and our shares were impacted in the second and third quarter, although I would say more from our supply constraints than private label trading. I mean we compete with private label. We're cognizant of that. Our approach and has to bring the right set of innovations, which we are accelerating and have been accelerating. And our customers are very supportive of it. There are a couple of categories where we have a little more value offering. Scott 1000 is a great value brand, but I think it competes very, very well in its tier.

And is really, really accepted by consumers. And so again, we're cognizant that private label is kind of out there and that in uncertain or top economic conditions, value becomes much more important to the consumer and we're committed to having a great value proposition at every tier.

[Operator]

Your next question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank.

[Stephen Robert Powers, analyst]

So maybe to start, you talked about a lower rate of organic growth in the first quarter and also a slightly back half-weighted earnings profile for the year in the prepared remarks and some of the comments this morning. Echo that. I guess maybe could you provide just a little bit more color on the drivers there and maybe a little bit more specificity on how to think about first quarter trends relative to the balance of the year.

[Nelson Urdaneta, executive]

Sure, Steve. So I'll start by reiterating that we're very encouraged by how we finish 2023, a strong foundation for us to build from and a position in which volumes have stabilized and we had a quarter in which were flat in volume and mix was another 100 basis points of growth.

As we think about the cadence of the year, our first half, second half balance of sales and earnings and our quarterly placing is reflecting a combination of 3 things: one, our go-to-market plans; two, our productivity initiatives; and thirdly, the current shape and of currency headwinds that I talked about a little while ago. On organic sales growth, we see a relatively balanced across the year, but Q1 is somewhat muted due to softer volumes on a sequential basis.

We have more programming coming into play as the year progresses, especially as Q2 kicks in. And this includes incremental innovation that will be going into market at that stage. So we should see progressively improvement in volumes and a mix led organic growth and margins following Q1. The other bit that, again, as we think about Q1 in terms of volumes, we've built into the plan a gradual improvement across the year.

And in Q1, specifically, we're expecting another relatively flat volume quarter, also because of the possibility that retail inventory softness pushes us slightly even below that level. But that's reflected in our outlook for the full year, and we expect again volumes to pick up as the year progresses.

[Stephen Robert Powers, analyst]

Okay. Okay. And I guess, kind of, I guess, stepping back a little bit. There's been a lot of investment that you've highlighted over the course of time in Personal Care. Not just the past year, but past few years, product quality, marketing, commercialization, et cetera. And I think you see the results in relatively strong market share trends and organic growth.

I guess on the other side, consumer tissue and KCP continue to lag and struggle from a volume perspective. So I guess as you think about '24 and both the relative balance of investment and the relative balance of contribution to growth. Can you give us a little insight on how you're thinking about that and how we should think about how those businesses are likely to trend relative to one another in the year.

[Michael Hsu, executive]

Yes, just -- I'll make a couple of comments, and then Nelson maybe can give some additional detail. But look, I would say we are running our consumer tissue business. Some might say externally a little differently. I look at our consumer tissue business and see it as a premier consumer franchise. And I am proud of the strong margin recovery that we've made over a short period of time in this business.

To note, I would say on a volume basis, if you look at North America, for the quarter, our organic and tissue was up 3% and the volume was up 2%. I'm very excited about the volume kind of resiliency in that business. I think it reflects the essential nature of the category. As you know, you're not moving away from the bath category no matter what the condition is. And so we recognize we have an important kind of responsibility for consumers. But I think the thing that has changed is in the past few years, first of all, the amount of inflation that's occurred on our overall business, but especially tissue has been not to be dramatic, but fundamentally historic, right?

Two years in a row of 2x what the all-time high ever was, right? And so our teams have done a phenomenal job, I would say, recovering the margins on the business that were necessary to keep that franchise healthy going forward. A couple of other things that we've done to improve our ability to manage the business better is, hey, better risk management tools to get us more stability from costs. And hopefully, you guys are seeing that.

We're not talking a lot about that, but with Nelson coming in, we've changed some of our practices with Tamera, our Chief Supply Officer coming in, we've changed some of our supply chain practices and so we're trying to reduce the volatility of the input costs. I would say, if you looked at the margin recovery, the biggest driver is really, really disciplined application of we call internally revenue growth management tools.

But that -- if we had not made those investments over the past 5 years, we would not have been able to move at the pace we moved over the last 2 years on revenue management. And then probably the most important thing going forward is the fact that we're driving value-added innovation. And we recognize as a consumer franchise, we have to have a great offering, a superior offering. I mentioned in the U.K. Andrex I think we hit about a 33 or 34 share in the quarter.

Our price gap has widened over the past 3 years. But our quality has improved significantly, and we've invested in new technologies in our European tissue business that's allowing us to differentiate that product. And so we feel good about our position on tissue. There are some pockets of challenge. Some markets can be very tough, and so we're able to operate in those. But we're really pleased with the kind of rapid recovery of margins and how our teams are managing that business right now.

[Nelson Urdaneta, executive]

And just to build on what Mike was saying and address the investments. Over the last few years, as you would have seen, we've stepped it up both on advertising support for our brands and the capabilities that are allowing us to emerge much stronger from this super cycle of inflation that we've seen. Specifically, for 2023, our advertising budget overall increased to more than 5% of net sales, which represented roughly about 100 basis points of increase versus the prior year, and that's about $200 million in absolute terms.

As you think about this year, Steve, we will still keep expanding that, but it will be at about half the pace of what we saw in 2023. And the other bit is in terms of overheads, which would include some of the capabilities we invested in, we are projecting overheads for the year to be largely flat in dollar terms year-over-year. So that can give you a perspective of what we're seeing in terms of investments and overall spend in 2024, building on what we did in the past few years.

[Stephen Robert Powers, analyst]

Okay. Great. I'll pass it on.

[Unknown Executive]

Could take maybe one more question, that would be great.

[Operator]

Certainly. Your next question is coming from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.

[Andrea Teixeira, analyst]

And welcome, Chris. So can you I have one question and a clarification on your comments now towards the end of the last question. First, can you break down a bit the 2024 guide by division? I'm assuming you're still looking at like between -- to get to your number, mid-single digits for Personal Care, some growth in volume there because that's where you get most of the growth. And then tissue to be flattish, consumer tissue to be flattish or to grow low single and then professionals still be negative especially in the first quarter as you lap those contracts.

The reason why I ask is that historically for a good reason, it's a better ROI, but you're more dependent on Personal Care than the other. And you've been to your point and to your benefit getting market share, in particularly in the U.S. and China in diapers and femcare. So I was wondering how you feel about the comps and how you feel about being able to meet this number in between low single and mid-single. I mean, at least at the high end of the guide, it does imply that you have a strong volume growth in Personal Care.

So I was wondering have a few on how you could decompose by division. And then a clarification on the reinvestment. You said and Nelson you mentioned was $200 million was the actual number roughly of investment. And then this year would be about half of it. And I was wondering what is the incrementality -- it's more displays and shelf space promo, what is going to be the main source? Because to be fair, you've been, to your point, investing for a while now since Mike took over 5 years ago.

[Michael Hsu, executive]

Andrea, great set of questions. Maybe I'll start with the bottom half first and also can kind of decom some of the organic drivers. On the investment, again, my priority would be focused on advertising. I think we get great returns on advertising, both from a certainly from a traditional TV and stuff, but more importantly, the digital and the returns are very, very high.

And so our focus is there. I mean we are going to be, I would say, competitive on the promotion front on a trade promotion front, but that's not how we're going to drive our business. We do feel like we get great value, and we have great creative, both on things like Huggies, and U by Kotex across our business on Scott 1000 last long. And so we got great copy, and we're going to invest there.

[Nelson Urdaneta, executive]

Yes. So in terms of kind of the breakdown by segment. I mean we expect Personal Care to be growing in the mid-to-high single digits. So think of mid-single digits overall at the high end. And in the other 2 segments, we will be growing in the low single digits, and that kind of gets you to the algorithm that we've provided. As I stated at the beginning, our plan is a vol mix largely let plan.

And keep in mind that pricing will be around 200 basis points of that, and that's largely related to currency-related movements in hyperinflationary economies. So that's kind of the breakdown of how you should be thinking of our segment growth next year.

[Operator]

Thank you. That concludes our Q&A session. I will now hand the conference back to Chris Jakubik for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

[Chris Jakubik, executive]

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today for the analysts that have follow-up questions, we'll be around all day. And beyond that, we're looking forward to seeing everybody in March.

[Operator]

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.