Idacorp Inc

NYSE:IDA

Earnings Call Analysis

IDACORP Reports Record Earnings and Growth

IDACORP achieved a 16th consecutive year of earnings growth, with 2023 earnings per share (EPS) at $5.14, rising from $5.11 in 2022. The company, marking its highest revenues and earnings to date, also projected 2024 EPS guidance between $5.25 to $5.45. Customer growth was 2.4%, now serving over 630,000 customers. A rate increase of 4.25% for Idaho customers was implemented after the Idaho Commission approval. In Oregon, the company requested a rate increase of $10.7 million. IDACORP installed 131 megawatts of energy storage, supporting reliability and cost control, and plans to fully phase out coal generation by 2030, aiming to maintain a reliable and cost-effective energy system.

IDACORP's Continued Growth and Forward Guidance

IDACORP has provided investors with a positive narrative, as its 2023 earnings per share increased to $5.14 from $5.11 the previous year, marking the 16th straight year of EPS growth. The company looks to maintain this trajectory, offering a full year 2024 earnings guidance estimate in the range of $5.25 to $5.45 per share. This expectation hinges on using additional tax credits to uphold earnings supported by the Idaho general rate case settlement and assumes normal weather conditions and power supply costs.

Strategic Focus Amidst Industry Challenges

IDACORP maintains a focus on safety, affordable rates, and innovative customer service, as well as on achieving clean energy goals. These priorities are embedded in the company's culture and are expected to persist in 2024 and beyond, indicating a steady strategic trajectory that bolsters investor confidence.

Customer Growth and Economic Outlook

The company's customer base grew by 2.4%, with the inception of new large customers like Meta and Micron, contributing to an economic upsurge in the region. With Idaho's economy forecasted to grow at 3.6% in 2024, the company projects a continued increase in demand and is anticipating potential upside beyond its forecasts.

Regulatory Environment and Rate Cases

IDACORP's rate case settlements in Idaho and the forthcoming ones in Oregon reflect a constructive regulatory environment, allowing the company to recover investments made in infrastructure. The recent approval of a $54.7 million average rate increase for Idaho customers underscores the company's successful efforts in balancing investor and customer needs.

Commitment to Clean Energy and Infrastructure Development

Significant progress was made in enhancing clean energy resources with the installation of 131 megawatts of energy storage. The company plans to exit coal-fired generation by 2030 and is implementing initiatives to maintain reliability and affordability through this transition.

Capital Expenditure and Financial Discipline

IDACORP's capital expenditures were significant in 2023, reaching over $600 million, and are forecasted to increase by 21% for the 2024-2028 period. This signals continuous investment in infrastructure aligned with customer demands, yet the company remains vigilant in maintaining its credit ratings and capital structure balance.

Cash Flow Dynamics

The company's cash flow from operations experienced a decline in 2023. However, with the approval of a rate change to account for increased power supply costs, IDACORP anticipates healthier cash flows from operations moving forward, offering a stable outlook on the company's financial health.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Welcome to IDACORP's Fourth Quarter and Year-End 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded, and our webcast is live. A replay will be available later today and for the next 12 months on the IDACORP website. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Amy Shaw, Vice President of Finance, Compliance and Risk.

[Amy I. Shaw, executive]

Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. We appreciate you joining our call. This morning, we issued and posted to IDACORP's website our fourth quarter and year-end 2023 earnings release and our Form 10-K. The slides that accompany today's call are also available on IDACORP's website. During the call, we'll refer to the slides by number.

As noted on Slide 2, our discussion today includes forward-looking statements. including earnings guidance, spending forecasts and regulatory plans that reflect our current views on what the future holds but are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to differ materially from statements made today, and we caution against placing undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. This cautionary note is included in more detail for your review in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

As shown on Slide 3, Lisa Grow, IDACORP's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Buckham, IDACORP's Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, will be presenting today. In addition to Lisa, and Brian, we have other members of our management team available for a Q&A session following our prepared remarks.

Slide 4 shows our full year financial results. IDACORP's 2023 diluted earnings per share were $5.14 compared with $5.11 last year. both 2023 revenues and earnings of IDACORP's highest in the history of the company and 2023 was the 16th consecutive year of growth in earnings per share, which is something to celebrate. Today, we initiated our full year 2024 IDACORP's earnings guidance estimate in the range of $5.25 to $5.45 diluted earnings per share which includes our expectation that Idaho Power will utilize approximately $35 million to $60 million of additional tax credits that are available to support earnings at the 9.2% return on equity level in the Idaho jurisdiction under its Idaho general rate case settlement stipulation. These estimates assume historically normal weather conditions throughout the year and normal power supply expenses. Also, it is important to note that approximately $25 million of our expected usage of additional tax credits related to amortization of incremental tax credits generated from Idaho Power's investment in 2023 battery storage projects, which you may recall, we moved from the revenue requirement as part of our 2023 general rate case proceeding in Idaho.

Now I'll turn the call over to Lisa.

[Lisa Grow, executive]

Thanks, Amy, and thanks to everyone for joining us on today's call. I want to begin my remarks by highlighting Amy's comment on IDACORP completing our 16th year of earnings growth as shown on Slide 5. Idaho Power also didn't use any accumulated deferred investment tax credits in 2023, preserving the full balance of credit in the Idaho regulatory stipulation for future earnings support. I want to thank our entire team for all the efforts that have contributed to this success.

As we turn to 2024, we remain focused on keeping our employees safe, building for the future to keep pace with growing customer demand keeping prices affordable, working toward our clean energy goal and seeking innovative ways to serve our customers. Our ability to deliver strong results while meeting the challenges of growth in the ever-shifting energy industry is a testament to our culture and Idaho Power's hard-working employees. Many of the topics I'll touch on today will continue to drive our efforts and business strategy throughout 2024 and beyond.

Turning to Slide 6, you'll see that strong growth continues across Idaho Power's service area. Our customer base grew 2.4% in 2023, and we now serve more than 630,000 customers. With that growth earlier this year, we also set a new winter peak load of 2,719 megawatts, an increase of over 4% from our prior winter peak in 2022. Moody's most recent GDP calculations for our region remained robust, forecasting growth of 3.6% in 2024 and 3.7% in 2025. We believe the reliable, affordable energy Idaho Power provides continues to be a driver for growth across our service area, and our local economy continues to outperform national trends. Idaho Power projects annual peak load growth of 3.7% from 2024 to 2028 based on our 2023 integrated resource plan. This growth includes several new and expanding large loads customers, including Meta and Micron. Both of their sites are under construction, and both are participating in our Clean Energy Your Way program which received commission approval last year and is garnering interest from other large customers, including the City of Boise. The Micron site helped push Idaho to #5 in a recent Site Selector Magazine ranking as stated with the highest dollar value mega projects breaking ground across the country. Overall, economic development continues at a rapid pace, particularly in the manufacturing space. In 2023, we brought online the Stow Company in Nampa and True West Beef in Jerome. We also continue to have a robust pipeline of potential large commercial and industrial customers, including data centers, inquiring about service. With so many finding our service area increasingly attractive, there is likely some upside in our low forecast that we haven't accounted for at this point. And we are considering what additional infrastructure would be needed to serve this potential low. Even with this growth, we continue to provide strong reliability for our customers. In 2023, we had our second best year for reliability with fewer customer outages, which resulted in less O&M costs related to outages.

Turning to Slide 7. The Idaho Commission approved the settlement agreement in our Idaho General Rate Case in December. The settlement, which resulted in new rates effective on January 1 of this year, resulted in an overall rate increase of $54.7 million or an average of 4.25% for Idaho customers, is a positive outcome for our company and our customers and underscores our constructive regulatory environment. It helps us recover some of the significant infrastructure investments we've made to serve our growing customer base since our last general rate case in 2011. This outcome also benefits our cash flows as we continue to develop additional infrastructure and maintain the reliability of our system.

As noted on Slide 8, Idaho Power filed its general -- Oregon general rate case in December 2023. In that case will be processed throughout much of 2024. We asked for a total annual rate increase of $10.7 million in Oregon. We expect to make additional rate filings as we experienced significant growth in our service area. For example, earlier this week, we provided notice to the Idaho Commission of our intent to file a general rate case or a limited issue rate proceeding as soon as June 1 of this year. We're still working to determine what type of case we might file, which will include conversations with Idaho staff and other key stakeholders. We continue to plan for and add new resources that will meet our growing demand.

Turning to Slide 9. In 2023, Idaho Power installed a total of 131 megawatts of energy storage capacity, the first utility-scale batteries in Idaho. The table on Slide 9 doesn't account for an additional 11 megawatts of batteries installed at several distribution substations in 2023. These systems are already helping to maintain reliability and affordability during periods of high use. 100-megawatt Franklin solar project in Southern Idaho is scheduled to come online in 2024, and will include an additional 60 megawatts of company-owned battery storage. These resources will be instrumental as we move away from coal-fired generation and integrate additional intermittent renewable energy resources.

As highlighted on Slide 10, we published our 2023 Integrated Resource Plan in September. The plan shows Idaho Power expects to be completely out of coal-fired generation by 2030. We're planning to convert our remaining coal-fired units to natural gas, which will reduce the carbon emissions of those units by about half and help keep our system reliable and affordable. We expect 2 of those units to be ready by this summer. Evaluations on RFPs for 2026 and 2027 resource needs are ongoing. You may recall, Idaho Power has self-build included in that process. At this point, the separate evaluation team has a short list of projects, and they've initiated contract negotiations with the shortlisted bidders. We expect to execute contracts in the coming months.

As shown on Slide 11, 2023 was a big year for our high-voltage transmission project, especially Boardman to Hemingway. We obtained certificates of public convenience and necessity for B2H in Oregon and Idaho. We also finalized an agreement with the Bonneville Power Administration and PacifiCorp that transfers BPA share of B2H to Idaho Power. We expect to break ground this year and finish the project no earlier than 2027. Idaho Power and PacifiCorp are also working together on the 1,000-mile Gateway West transmission line, which will help both companies meet rising customer demand and improve reliability. We're currently discussing with PacifiCorp, the timing of construction for the segment's most important to Idaho Power and the specific ownership allocation of those segments. In addition, we continue to look at other transmission projects that will be key to supplying reliable, affordable clean energy in the future.

As I close my remarks, I want to reiterate my thanks to our employees and the leadership team for all the great work they did to drive our success in 2023. As I reflect on the year, it's incredible how much we accomplished. The challenges of growth rank in costs and the increasing demand for clean energy while maintaining safety, reliability and affordability are real. But it's clear to me we have the right team in place to thrive in this fast-moving energy landscape.

With that, I'll hand the presentation over to Brian for an overview of financial results and outlook. Brian?

[Brian Buckham, executive]

Thanks, Lisa. Hi, everyone. We appreciate you tuning in for today's call. I'll start on Slide 12, which is a reconciliation of our 2023 results compared to 2022. Just as a broad overview before I get into more detail, in 2023, we saw continued strong customer growth, and we benefited from our ongoing commitment to operating efficiently with our O&M expenses coming in basically flat compared to 2022. We also have the benefit of a June 2022 rate change related to Bridger for a full year and lower income tax expense. Those positives were partially offset by reductions in usage from mild weather and higher depreciation and financing costs from our record level of CapEx. Getting into more granular detail, customer growth of 2.4% increased operating income by $15.7 million. Our residential customer growth rate remained strong at 2.6% for the year, and this is a continuation of steady growth we've seen and the trend points to continued strong customer and load growth in our service area. Wouldn't be an Idaho Power earnings call if we didn't talk about the weather. Usage per customer decreased operating income by about $31 million in 2023 compared to the prior year, more moderate temperatures and greater precipitation [indiscernible] in irrigation customers using less energy to operate their pumps. And it causes residential and commercial customers to use less energy per customer for cooling and heating during the year. The impact of the decrease in sales volumes per customer was partially offset by a $15 million increase from the fixed cost adjustment decoupling mechanism for our residential and small commercial customers. Remember the decoupling mechanism doesn't apply to irrigation customers, so we saw a negative weather-related impact to irrigation sales without an attendant FCA revenue offset in 2023, just like we saw in 2022. The change in retail revenues per megawatt hour net of associated power supply cost and power cost set mechanisms, increased operating income by $11 million in 2023 compared with 2022. That increase was primarily due to the June 2022 bridge-related rate increase for our Idaho cummers. Other O&M expenses were almost equivalent in the last 2 years. Inflationary pressures on labor-related costs were mostly offset by our continued efforts to operate efficiently really part of our culture and from lower expenses from scheduled cyclical plant maintenance projects and the timing of regulatory deferrals and credits received related to a jointly funded infrastructure project. Depreciation expense increased $25.3 million, which I'll admit initially sound significant. However, the magnitude on a year-over-year comparison basis is due partially to an increase in plant in service and partially to the impact of the Bridge order I mentioned earlier. The latter was actually the larger of the 2 reasons. Nonoperating expense decreased $4.7 million in 2023 compared with 2022. Allowance for funds used during construction increased the average construction work in balance -- and progress balance was higher throughout 2023. Also, interest and investment income increased due to higher interest rates and higher average cash and cash equivalents balances. These increases were partially offset by higher interest expense on long-term debt.

Wrapping up the table, the $11 million decrease in income tax expense was primarily due to plant-related cash adjustments. As Lisa mentioned, we ultimately didn't record any additional amortization of accumulated deferred investment tax credits as of the end of 2023, preserving the full year-end 2023 balance of around $86 million for future years. While we've predicted to use additional ADITCs throughout the year, our year-end results ultimately eliminated our need to use them to achieve a [ 9.4% ] return on year-end equity in Idaho by a small margin. Beginning in 2024, the ADITC mechanism supports Idaho earnings at a 9.12% level.

Our CapEx on a cash basis was over $600 million in 2023 and Idaho Power record and it was an increase of more than 40% over 2022. On an accrual basis, it was $734 million. And if you look at the projects that entail it's our standard system reliability work, plant upgrades and work on our transmission system and our battery storage projects to meet customer growth.

On Slide 13, we've included our updated 5-year forecast of CapEx. You'll see our current plan for 2024 to 2028 has a 21% increase in CapEx compared to the 2023 to 2027 forecast we added this time last year, amounting to $700 million of additional CapEx in this updated 5-year forecast. We have a healthy mix of capital projects that make up our spending plan. We have no one particular project making up a majority of the expected spend -- our update includes refreshed cost assumptions from our major capital projects. But it's worth pointing out, this update still doesn't include any projects related to the pending RFPs for 2026 and 2027 energy and capacity resources or if we end up with new large loads that are in the pipeline that drive further infrastructure needs. We are only including what we believe is known and executable as of today, so there is the potential for increases. We hope to have some clarity around the RFPs later in the first quarter. So we're still a ways out on any final decisions in the RFPs.

Slide 14 is our estimate of the conversion of our CapEx spend in the rate base eligible assets at the end of each of the next 5 years as we place the assets into service. Last year at this time, our estimated 5-year rate base CAGR was 11.1% based on rate base eligible assets at the end of 2022 in addition through 2027. So as we roll forward our CapEx forecast for our next 5-year outlook with rate base from our 2023 general rate cases at the starting point, our rate base CAGR for 2024 through 2028 is 10.8%. Again, with about $700 million of higher CapEx in the current 5-year forecast compared to our 5-year forecast this time last year.

In terms of financing that CapEx, as I mentioned before, our goal is still to maintain our credit ratings as well as the capital structure in near 50% or 51% equity. To do that, we're still planning to blend that and equity issuances. We don't have any sizable debt maturities to address in the next few years, which helps on the debt side and with our credit ratings. We also haven't drawn down any of the funds from our November 2023 forward equity offering to date, though it's intended to satisfy our equity needs in 2024. As a matter of good housekeeping, we could put in place an ATM later this year as we look to satisfy future equity needs, keep that debt equity ratio in a good spot. We're also focused on affordability or through this capital cycle. We started rates well below the national average. And then combining that with the dominator expanding due to customer growth, our regulatory philosophy where growth pays for growth and the fact that the average life of the assets we're placing into service is relatively long, and we have the formula to maintain affordability for our customers. I think the relatively small single-digit percentage size of our general rate case ask in Idaho last year, despite having not filed a general rate case in over a decade, is indicative of our ability to maintain low customer rates while our CapEx and rate base forecast is elevated.

Turning to Slide 15. Cash flow from operations decreased compared to 2022. As we discussed during the second quarter earnings call last year, we received approval from the Idaho Commission to collect a $200 million increase in power supply costs from customers for higher power and gas costs. with collection from June of 2023 through 2025. We expect that rate change, along with the increased collection that began on January 1 from the Idaho General Rate Case settlement to help support cash flows from operations. As Lisa mentioned, in late December, the IPUC issued an order approving the settlement stipulation for Idaho General Rate Case. We've included a summary of the settlement on Slide 7. The settlement provides for an increase to annual retail revenues of about $55 million, effective as of January 1 of this year, that's net of some transfers of cost recovery to rate base rates, including $168 million from current PCA rates, most notably. The settlement includes an ROE of 9.6%, which sets our overall rate of return at 7.247% in Idaho. Last December, we filed a general rate case in Oregon targeting a rate increase on October 15 of this year, as outlined on Slide 8, the filing requested an annual rate increase of $10.7 million. The filing requested a 10.4% authorized rate of return on equity and a $189 million Oregon jurisdiction rate base. Idaho Power proposed capital structure of 49% debt and 51% equity in that case. [Audio Gap] As we contemplated in our Idaho General Rate Case filing, around $25 million of the additional investment tax credit amortization we expect to use this year relates to covering the revenue requirement for our investment in 2023 battery storage projects.

Other items causing the expected additional investment tax credit amortization usage this year our higher depreciation and interest expense from the CapEx increase as well as higher book equity expected at year-end 2024, offset by the reduction from 9.4% to 9.12% ROE floor, and the guidance assumes normal weather throughout 2024 and normal power supply expenses. We expect full year O&M expense to be in the range of $440 million to $450 million. While this looks and sounds like a notable increase over our 2023 spending, it's important to note that about $40 million of that expected expense relates to amortization of pension and welfare mitigation plan regulatory assets, which was approved for recovery in the general rate case settlement. So excluding the new amortization that are not collected through retail rates, our O&M expense in 2024 could be relatively comparable to our O&M expense in 2023. We anticipate spending between $925 million and $975 million of CapEx for 2024. As the 5-year forecast showed, we expect to see a continuation of these higher CapEx numbers in subsequent years as we address growth in our service area.

Finally, given our most updated forecast of hydropower operate conditions, we currently expect hydro power generation to be within the range of 5.5 million to 7.5 million megawatt hours for the year. Although we have solid carryover from the prior year, snowpack this far has been below normal, but storms have been rolling through lately. So we're hoping for a benefit from those storms.

And with that, we're happy to address questions you might have.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Alex Mortimer with Mizuho Securities.

[Alexander Mortimer, analyst]

So I know you're still waiting for the RFP process to finalize for the '26, '27 time frame. But could you directionally quantify what that opportunity could potentially look like from a CapEx perspective as well as when how we might get that update?

[Adam Richins, executive]

Alex, this is Adam. It's a little bit difficult with these RFPs because how much of it is confidential. Right now, there is a short list, and Idaho Power did put in 3 benchmark bids. One was for a wind project, one was 4 -- and two really were for battery projects -- the win was 600 megawatts, the 2 battery projects were 150 and 100 megawatts. In terms of whether Idaho Power win those bids or not, we won't know here for a couple of months. and hoping to execute agreements March, April timeframe. But I just want to let you know that the general size, whether they'll be successful or not is to be determined.

[Brian Buckham, executive]

And Alex, this is Brian. Just to add to that. Remember, the original need that we had at the time we started the RFP process was 350 megawatts of capacity satisfied by as much as 1,100 megawatts of variable energy. So that can change from time to time as our operating needs change, but that was the original magnitude of the RFP.

[Alexander Mortimer, analyst]

Okay. Understood. And then can you discuss potential timing and scale of future equity issuances maybe in the '25, '26 time frame given it seems like '24 has been covered with the earlier announcement.

[Brian Buckham, executive]

Yes, Alex, this is Brian. So you're right, the 2023 forward issuance we did back in November was intended to finance 2024 as equity needs. And actually maybe even a little of 2025, given that we upsized the offering. So some of the variables we've got to look at in terms of what 2025 entails is cash flow, what we get in terms of tax credits, where our power supply Costco, things like that, that's going to impact the equity need. We do expect cash flow to improve in 2024 and in 2025 compared to what we saw in 2023, and that's going to help reduce the need. Our regulatory approach in 2024 that we're looking to how that turns out, could also impact what our equity needs look like. So we can reduce some of our regulatory lag. We can reduce some of our equity needs. The RFPs Adam just mentioned, if we're successful in the RFPs, we will likely finance a portion of that with equity potentially in 2025. So we're looking to keep that debt equity at 50% or 51% equity, as I mentioned. So it will take equity to fund our growth. But as of now, all of those variables are still in play on the equity side. So for now, what I will say is we do plan to put up an ATM at some point this year for equity needs to come up, but we would be funding equity needs in 2025 at that point. No near-term equity needs, certainly given our prior forward. But with the ATM also looking at a potential forward component like we did in our follow-on offering last year, just to be ready in the market if need be, on the IP side.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Zimbardo with Bank of America.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

It's actually Julien on for Paul. [Audio Gap] to gauge their interest and see if we can make it a more simplified case that would be really focused on our investments that we're making and perhaps labor increases. So we're exploring that now, and we'll decide as we talk to those stakeholders.

[Operator]

And your next question comes from the line of Shahar Perez with Guggenheim Partners.

[Unknown Analyst]

It's actually James Ward on for Shahar. Well, Julien just asked most of the questions I was going to ask on the rate case. So that was a second one. I'll ask the second part that is a little separate from that. And then the primary one on the ADITC battery projects and amounts going forward. But just to follow on Julien's question there. how do we factor in Hells Canyon and timing, knowing that, that's now expected to be a 2025 event right now? I thought that was reiterated in the slides, the licensing was expected to occur in 25%. So if the case was filed in June, what impact -- if there is an impact, What Hells Canyon play just knowing that in prior conversations we've had, that was going to be at least at one point, a deciding factor of when a case would be filed. Does this play into that?

[Lisa Grow, executive]

So the case we would file this year wouldn't include Health Canyon. But I realize in the future rate cases, when we do get the license, that very well could trigger perhaps the single issue rate proceeding or it may be included in another general rate case, we'll have to wait to see kind of what's going on in that year before we would make that decision.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. Okay. That's the answer. Yes. No, I realize they would be separate. I was trying to get a sense of whether you would hold off for a certain amount of time after or if it would trigger -- a quicker case than you otherwise would have expected to file. Just again, because you haven't filed so long and now the pace is picking up, just trying to get a sense of the cadence as we model rate increases going forward. On the...

[Brian Buckham, executive]

Just to add on to that one thing I will mention is that there's a possibility that we would look to file something in advance of the actual data received the license. To the extent we have any visibility to that, we may file earlier than the license state. You saw this on the Langley Gulch plant when we put it into service. We did have a filing in advance, and our rate case actually happened very near at the time that the plant landed service. Given the magnitude of the Hells Canyon license, we may look to do something similar to that in the future as well. We will be in front of the regulator, we expect relatively frequently. So this could be something that goes into a GRC if the timing works out. If not, it could be a single issue case. And remember, we did take Hells Canyon to the regulator earlier since it has been such a long project. and got a prudency determination through 2015 on expenditures we've made on that project just because it's been out there for so long and have -- we have so much AFUDC on that project. We've also been collecting AFUDC on it, which has been helpful from a rate perspective as we do take that incorporated in the customer rate.

[Unknown Analyst]

Perfect. Yes. And that -- your comments there are consistent with my recollection, my notes from what you mentioned earlier. So I appreciate the additional color and -- as we think about the amount of ADITC amortization or additional ADITC amortization, I should say, going forward, of course, you have the additional $25 million amount with battery projects. The level that it supports, of course, is come down to 9.12% be 95% to the 9.6% authorized. How should we think going forward of kind of an expected amount. And I'm saying this with the full realization and understanding that you do not provide multiyear guidance or long-term EPS CAGR, et cetera? But more just from a practical standpoint, what realistic to assume is going to be something safe to model, say, for the next few years. as you're continuing to invest at the pace the clip that you are and depending on the timing of rate cases.

[Brian Buckham, executive]

Sure. Yes, James, this is Brian. So a few things you have to look at in terms of how many credits will -- I'll give you this answer first. You have to look at it separately each year. There's not a specific number that we would say it's going to be used every year. There is another limit, right? First of all, there's an upper limit to credits. Right now, as of the end of the year, we had $86 million in the mechanism. Do expect to add some more to that from the 2023 batteries as they go into service and are paid for. In terms of future additions to the mechanism, that takes regulatory action. We'd actually have to go into the regulator and ask for additional ITCs to be put into the mechanism, whether they're current balance sheet credits or credits that come off of renewable projects and batteries we install in the future. Depending on what that balance is, the number is going to depend on a lot. The thing that's a big factor is equity, for example, when equity is issued, it increases book equity. And as that is incorporated into our financial statements, that can use additional credit catch up to that higher book equity. Now that moves EPS as well, of course, And then we have to look at financial headwinds every year. For example, in 2024, we've talked about higher depreciation and interest expense. So to the extent we have to absorb that, tax credits would be used to absorb some of the financing costs associated with our growth. Beyond that, I would say on the credit side, it's going to depend on the size of the bucket in any given year as to what we're going to be using. So you can't just take a straight line look at tax credit. As we go to the regulator and we increase our cash collection, for example, we would expect our rate base earnings power to eliminate the need for as many credits. So over time, we would expect the need to rely on credit to earn close to our authorized rate of return would go away, but that's something that, fortunately, these credits in the interim do provide us with earnings support. .

[Lisa Grow, executive]

I think it's also worth noting that the way the mechanism works, we don't have discretion to decide how many to use. It's whatever the number is, that amount is used. So it's not -- we can't hold them back.

[Unknown Analyst]

Got it. Got it. That's helpful. Okay. That all makes sense, and I appreciate all the detail there. It sounds like should continue using the year-end book equity iterative calculation that I think we all used to sort of figure out each year what the need will be. It sounds like that's still the go-forward practice.

[Brian Buckham, executive]

That's correct. Remember, James, that the number can change. So remember, in this particular case, the number fell to 9.12%. If the ROE were to go up in subsequent cases, that number, it would be expected to also move with it.

[Operator]

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Russo with Sidoti.

[Brian Russo, analyst]

So just a follow-up on either limited issue or general rate case. If you follow by June, is it fair to say that you'd have new rates effective in January of 2025? And then what would be the test year and then like the true up? How much CapEx from your last rate case would you capture in this for rates in to reduce any lag?

[Lisa Grow, executive]

So we'll start with -- yes, we would -- the final June with the expectation that we would -- they would go into effect January 1. We would be using a 2024 test year. And then what was the other -- sorry, Brian, what was the other part of your question?

[Brian Russo, analyst]

Yes, For true-up, but I guess if you're going to use a 2024 test year, then it's basically current rate base would be reflected in rates.

[Brian Buckham, executive]

Yes, Brian, this is Brian. So we don't have that put together yet in terms of what the actual number we would submit to regulators would be. The true-up component is relatively small at this point. but the amount of additional rate base that we plan to -- plan that we put into service during 2024 the rate base eligible is very significant. So when we have that number, we'll be able to share that.

[Brian Russo, analyst]

Yes. Understood. And it seems like if you kind of back out the amortization of the expense in your 2024 guidance, Is it fair to say that this case will again really be capital driven and not really operating expense driven?

[Lisa Grow, executive]

Yes, that's correct. That's what we believe. And with so many other things being settled in this last rate case, we feel like it's really a matter of -- in the time where we're growing so fast, we just simply can't stay out another decade when we're spending roughly $1 billion a year. So we will be in more frequently.

[Brian Buckham, executive]

Yes. And you've seen us control over O&M and keep it relatively flat. You saw it 20 -- '22 to '23. We're pushing to do it again for 2024. The one area where we just aren't able to do that, of course, is in labor. So that's an area that's very difficult to absorb, particularly as we have to keep people here and employed in order to meet these growth demand. So we look at that one as an area where if we're looking at limited scope labor is something we would look to include in the mix in addition to the infrastructure investment.

[Adam Richins, executive]

Yes. And this is Adam. I think in addition to that, just with the growth we're seeing in batteries, you've got to maintain all the new systems that are out there. So that regard the O&M increases we're seeing as well.

[Lisa Grow, executive]

And then I would also add our -- we have some regulatory deferral mechanisms for things like the wildfire mitigation plan that allows us to make those investments now and defer the recovery until later. So that helps for other raising costs that are going up.

[Brian Russo, analyst]

Okay. Great. And you mentioned earlier, inquiries for data centers. Could you just add more context behind that? And when you might need additional generation capacity, which I assume would have to be some baseload or gas-fired generation maybe along with renewables and then tie that into maybe when we could expect the next IRP.

[Lisa Grow, executive]

Yes. So it is the time right now where it is the amount of megawatts that are sort of kicking the tires, it used to be that 3 to 5 megawatts is these are showing up at hundreds or and more. So it's an ongoing process that it feels like we're just in a perpetual IRT, but that announced it. Adam, do you want to give a little more color?

[Adam Richins, executive]

Yes. This is Adam. Maybe just to add to that. When we track large load requests, we consider a large low to megawatt or more this year in 2023, we had more requests and inquiries on our system than ever in the history of the company. we used to get, as Lisa mentioned, 1, 2, 3, 4 megawatts. These requests are now in the hundreds to even thousands -- now whether they will actually come to our service territory is an open question. And obviously, those discussions are confidential. But if we did see a significant amount of these entities decide to come here, you could see us having to move forward with, for example, a gas plant sooner than what our IRP showed. Just as a reminder, in our IRP, we now look at large load scenarios, and so as we move forward with your IRPs, we'll do the same. And what that could show is that the need for gas may increase even as early as between 30 -- 2029 time for. But again, it all depends on what loads come to fruition, whether these companies decide to cite in Idaho or somewhere else.

[Brian Russo, analyst]

Okay. And then maybe just a more detailed update on B2H. You mentioned it shifted a little bit, yet you're still expecting to break ground this year. I mean what's the likelihood that it's the early as 2026. Is that still realistic on track?

[Lisa Grow, executive]

Yes. So you can -- you've been following us for quite a while, so this has been quite the process to get to where we are. So we're feeling good about getting to the finish line permits. Right now, there have been some delays in getting the notice to proceed. It's mostly due to just the responsiveness of the agencies. But I just have to add to give you a little more color on it, but I feel like we're getting to the end, I think we're -- it won't be any sooner than 2026 for sure.

[Adam Richins, executive]

Yes, you hit on most of it. The issue we run into is just a little bit of delays related to the notice to proceeds from the Oregon parent of Energy and from the BLM. We still do plan to start construction this year, hopefully, in the first half of this year, if possible. And our end date is still 2026, given what we're seeing. So as long as we can work with the agencies, get some of these final notice to proceed, we have some right-of-way work to also do. And then we're doing some micro citing and some amendments on that front. If it all comes together, the construction would start in 2024 and it would end before the end of the year in 2026.

[Brian Russo, analyst]

Okay. Great. And lastly, just given the new rates, and I suppose there might be tiered rates during the peak demand season along with the ADITCs, which are partly due to the batter storage revenue being transferred there. Anything we be aware of in terms of the quarterly dispersion of your margins or earnings as it relates to your full year guidance?

[Brian Buckham, executive]

Brian, not from my perspective. I mean, one of the things we've done in the past is we've used ADITCs. We have made an estimate early in year of the full year ADITC usage amount and then we record that pro rata over the year, not based on anticipated sales each quarter. So you expect us to do that again this year with the ADITC. But otherwise, yes, there were some minor changes in the case to tiering, but I wouldn't expect it to have a dramatic impact on seasonality. We should still have seasonality that's similar to what we've seen in the past, driven more heavily by weather than by any changes to rates.

[Operator]

And your next question comes from the line of Bill Appicelli with UBS.

[Unknown Analyst]

A lot of stuff has already been asked and answered. But just to clarify on the ADITC balance. So Brian, I think you said you ended the year at $86 million and then we should add to that the, I guess, the full amount from the batteries, right? And so is that $50 million? I know you referenced the $25 million, but is the total value of the batteries in terms of what it adds to the ADITC balance? Is that $50 million? Or what is that? So then you sort of add to that and then we back off what we -- what you assume to utilize this year, right? And then we'll have like a residual balance for moving forward? Is that the way to think about it?

[Brian Buckham, executive]

You're correct, Bill. So we had $45 million originally authorized by the regulators. We had planned to use some of that in 2023, but did not. So we had $45 million balance, and then we're authorized to add to that, all of the credits that are generated from the batteries that we installed in 2023. We don't get the credits until they are installed and paid for. And so we have some outstanding payments on some of the batteries right now. The $86 million is the bulk of it. That's the total amount plus the amount we added. We expect another $15 million to $20 million to be added to that from portions of the batteries that were 2023 batteries, but are not yet on the books for purposes of the mechanism. So ending closer to around $100 million of tax credit eligible in the mechanism for 2024.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. All right. And then you'll back off whatever you end up consuming in that range for this year, right? Correct. Also that -- okay. And then in this rate filing that you're going to make should we assume that you would go back and ask for additional credits?

[Brian Buckham, executive]

I mean we may. That is one thing we could do because we are installing batteries in 2024, and they will also generate we think it's an efficient mechanism for both our customers and our shareholders to use the ADITC mechanism for those credits. So it's possible that we would make a similar ask to incorporate those into the mechanism in even a limited scope case in front of the PUC.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And then just going back a little bit to the question around the CapEx. You guys have talked about -- and Brian sort of asked about this a little bit, you talked about regarding the data center but for additional capital is related to higher load growth, is that more back-end loaded potentially to the extent that there are additional CapEx revisions from a higher load growth excluding the RFPs, but just strictly from the loan growth, that would be sort of on the back end of this CapEx forecast? Or is there a potential for some of that to be feathered in sooner? How should we think about that?

[Lisa Grow, executive]

I think it states it's probably towards the end -- it would be the end -- towards the end of the time period we're talking about, just given how quickly you could actually build something once you negotiate the contract with such a large load.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. And then, Brian, you had mentioned about -- when you think about the financing and what's the right metric to look at? You mentioned the 50% to 51% equity, but you -- maybe you can share with us the FFO to debt number that maybe you ended the year or you talked about the cash flow improvement. So how should we think about under that metric, if you have that handy?

[Brian Buckham, executive]

So what I would tell you is we want to be more towards the 15% to 18% FFO to debt number. we ended up the year below that. And probably through this CapEx cycle might be closer to that 13% to 15% range where we've been regionally. .

[Operator]

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] All right. It looks like there are no further questions. So this does conclude the question-and-answer session for today. Ms. Grow, I will turn the conference back over to you.

[Lisa Grow, executive]

Thank you. Thanks to everyone for joining us this afternoon and for your continued interest in IDACORP. I hope you all enjoy President's weekend, and have a great evening. Thank you.

[Operator]

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation.