Hilltop Holdings Inc

NYSE:HTH

Earnings Call Analysis

Hilltop Q3 Reflects Resilience Amid Challenges

Hilltop Holdings reported a positive Q3 2023, with a net income of $37 million or $0.57 per diluted share. Despite market pressures, consistent with conservative liquidity management, they've achieved a return on average equity of 7.1% and grown the tangible book value per share to $27.67, reflective of solid profitability and book value expansion. Plains Capital Bank maintained stability with a pre-tax income of $53 million on $13.3 billion of assets. However, commercial real estate experienced slower activity. Prime Lending faced industry pressures from high mortgage rates and low housing supply but has strategically reduced expenses and improved margins. Hilltop Securities excelled with a pre-tax income of $22 million, benefiting from increased revenue from high-margin businesses and structured finance volume. Overall, Hilltop's diversified business model and strategic adjustments display resilience and anticipates sustained long-term growth.

Hilltop's Third Quarter Earnings: Consistent Performance Amid Headwinds

In a challenging environment marked by rising interest rates and market pressures, Hilltop has demonstrated noteworthy consistency. They reported $37 million in net income and a persistent book value growth, backed by robust capital levels and strategic liquidity management, positioning them well for sustained growth.

Banking and Securities Segments: Strong Pretax Income Communication

PlainsCapital Bank and HilltopSecurities, key Hilltop segments, have shown a solid return on assets despite a cooling loan pipeline and competitive deposit market. Positive credit quality and a focus on operations and staffing optimization at PrimeLending are helping offset the mortgage market downturn, emphasizing Hilltop's strategic resilience and adaptability.

Stable Book of Loans Amidst Reduced Lending

Loan stability has been maintained quarter-on-quarter, yet there's an expectation for slowing loan growth with commercial lending showing contraction. Proactive credit quality monitoring continues as potential economic slowdown could impact clients, while net recoveries and stable non-performing asset levels reflect a resilient credit portfolio.

Financial Outlook: Navigating Interest Rate and Deposit Cost Challenges

With expectations of Fed funds rates between 5.50% and 5.75% by year-end and remaining stable into the majority of 2024, Hilltop anticipates elevated deposit costs and competitive pressures that may affect net interest income (NII) and margins. Noninterest income and expenses have seen adjustments to the turbulent mortgage banking sector, with targered efficiency improvements to combat inflationary pressures.

Leadership's Commitment to Strategic Capital Allocation

Hilltop's executives indicated the potential for M&A as a high-return capital deployment strategy while acknowledging the challenges of the current economic landscape. This forward-looking approach demonstrates cautious yet dynamic management as they navigate market conditions and shareholder expectations.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Hilltop Holdings Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Erik Yohe with Hilltop Holdings.

[Erik Yohe, executive]

Before we get started, please note that certain statements during today's presentation that are not statements of historical fact, including statements concerning such items as our outlook, business strategy, future plans, financial condition, allowance for credit losses, liquidity and sources of funding, the impact and potential impacts of inflation, stock repurchases and dividends and impacts of interest rate changes as well as such other items referenced in the presence of our presentation are forward-looking statements.These statements are based on management's current expectations concerning future events that, by their nature, are subject to risks and uncertainties. Our actual results, capital, liquidity and financial condition may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including the precautionary statements referenced in our presentation and those included in our most recent annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC.Please note that the information presented is preliminary and based upon data available at this time. Except to the extent required by law, we expressly disclaim any obligation to update earlier statements as a result of new information. Additionally, this presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures, including tangible common equity and tangible book value per share. A reconciliation of these measures to the nearest GAAP measure may be found in the appendix to this presentation, which is posted on our website at ir.hilltop-holdings.com. With that, I will now turn the presentation over to the President and CEO, Jeremy Ford.

[Jeremy Ford, executive]

For the third quarter, Hilltop reported net income of $37 million or $0.57 per diluted share. Return on average assets for the period was 0.9% and return on average equity was 7.1%. This was a favorable quarter for the organization despite escalating interest rates and market pressures within each business. Hilltop produced solid consolidated profitability and continue to grow its book value with our conservative liquidity management. The dedication and adaptability of our teams in this uncertain environment has been commendable. I believe our proactive measures, strategic initiatives and the strength of our franchise position Hilltop for resiliency in this challenging environment and sustained growth over the long term.For the quarter, PlainsCapital Bank generated $53 million of pretax income on $13.3 billion of assets, representing a return on average assets of 1.2%. Average loans at the bank were relatively stable from the second quarter as slower client activity, particularly in commercial real estate was partially offset by reduced paydowns. Higher borrowing costs and increased equity requirements needed to borrow have impacted the pipeline, and we expect this trend to continue until rates stabilize, whereby pricing can normalize and transaction volume should pick up. Credit quality remains paramount to our bank, and we will continue to approach credit risk in the same judicious manner.Although we saw a minor amount of negative credit migration, the bank had a decline in nonperforming assets and realized a net recovery in the quarter. Average bank deposits remained relatively stable during the quarter at $11.3 billion. We continue to see a migration from noninterest-bearing deposits into money market and CD accounts, which contributed to a 31 basis point increase in deposit cost. This increase is in line with expectations given the mix shift in prior deposit guidance. Overall, our bank continues to perform well despite NIM compression and softness in the loan pipeline. While we do expect the balance sheet to contract for a period, the business remains focused on bottom line profitability by managing margins where possible, being thoughtful about appropriate credit risk and tightening down on expenses. Moving to PrimeLending. The residential mortgage industry remains under pressure, given the increase in the 10-year rate and the resulting highest mortgage rates in over two decades. Additionally, other negative industry factors include a persistently low supply of retail housing, elevated home prices and surplus capacity within the mortgage origination sector.These dynamics have collectively exerted substantial pressures on lender loan volumes, homebuyer confidence and secondary margins. To weather these challenges, PrimeLending has taken several strategic and tactical measures to ensure resiliency and sustainability. These include a focus on optimizing operations and corporate staffing levels, a judicious approach to variable expenses and a reevaluation of brick-and-mortar utilization. We have begun to see the benefits of these initiatives in our expenses and in our margins, evident by the lower pretax loss in the business year-over-year despite lower origination volumes and gain on sale margins. PrimeLending originated $2.2 billion in volume, a decline of 26% from the same period prior year. Gain on sale margin during the period was relatively stable to the second quarter at 198 basis points, though down from 218 basis points in the third quarter of 2022. While the gain on sale margin is still lower than the same period prior year, origination fees have increased from 131 basis points to 185 basis points as more borrowers are choosing to buy down the higher mortgage rates. There was a positive trend in fixed costs during the period as they declined by $16 million or 21% from prior year. This is directly related to the resizing efforts previously mentioned. Notwithstanding the cost reductions, PrimeLending continues to focus on enhancing its sales force by recruiting quality loan originators that can bring on profitable volume in this difficult mortgage market. In addition to helping us navigate through near-term challenges, we believe that the strategic changes and improvements undertaken will position PrimeLending for higher margins and increased profitability when the industry recovers. We have confidence in our leadership team and are encouraged by the current favorable expense trends in the business. HilltopSecurities generated pretax income of $22 million on net revenues of $119 million during the quarter. Pretax profit and margins improved compared to last year's third quarter due to an increase in contribution to revenue from higher-margin businesses, primarily associated with our sweep income that has benefited from higher short-term rates. Additionally, our structured finance business reaped the benefits of more volume from certain state housing programs, most notably in Florida. This highlights the quality of our team and the relationships they have fostered with different state housing agencies. HilltopSecurities has performed exceptionally well this year, which is a testament to the talented leadership and producers across its businesses. Moving to Page 4. Hilltop maintains robust capital levels with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 18.6% and our tangible book value per share increased from Q3 2022 by $0.54 to $27.67. Our capital ratios and tangible book value have grown as a result of our conservative securities management, declining balance sheet and durable profitability. In summary, while industry headwinds are adversely impacting our bank and mortgage businesses, this quarter's improved results again illustrate the strength of Hilltop's franchise and the hard work by our team. We will continue to prioritize the strength of our balance sheet to best serve our clients and best position Hilltop. With that, I will now turn the presentation over to Will to discuss the financials.

[William Furr, executive]

I'll start on Page 5. As Jeremy discussed, for the third quarter of 2023, Hilltop reported consolidated income attributable to common stockholders of $37 million, equating to $0.57 per diluted share. Quarter's results highlight the successful expense work we've been executing across the franchise and most acutely at PrimeLending, coupled with solid credit metrics that remain resilient at least through this point in the cycle. To address credit and the changes in allowance, I am turning to Page 6. Hiltop's allowance for credit losses increased during the quarter by $1.5 million to $110.8 million. Improvement in the macroeconomic outlook, coupled with net recoveries of prior losses in the period, materially offset the impact of loan growth and collective portfolio changes.Allowance for credit losses of $111 million yields an ACL to total loan ratio of 1.35% as of September 30th, 2023. As we've seen over time, ACL can be volatile as it is impacted by economic assumptions as well as changes in the mix and makeup of the credit portfolio. We continue to believe that the allowance for credit losses could be volatile and the future changes in the allowance will be driven by net loan growth in the portfolio, credit migration trends and changes to the macroeconomic outlook over time. Given the current uncertainties regarding inflation, interest rates, the future outlook for GDP growth and unemployment, we do expect that volatility in the ACL could be heightened over the coming quarters. Turning to Page 7. As provided in the previous quarter, I wanted to show a little more detail into our CRE portfolio and the allowance distribution across some of the key loan segments. At September 30th, the CRE portfolio totaled approximately $3.3 billion, which we segregate in the owner and nonowner-occupied or investor real estate. Internally, we view owner-occupied real estate more like C&I lending. As for the most part, repayment is driven by the operating business that owns the real estate. Nonowner-occupied real estate makes up 57% of the CRE book. As is noted in the upper right-hand chart is diversified across multiple income-producing property types. In the bottom table, we provide a breakout of nonowner-occupied office and retail within the portfolio to highlight the differentiation in ACL coverage by loan segment type. Our view to date is that the office and retail markets across our footprint represent the highest exposure to both recession, absorption and valuation risk in the portfolio. As such, you can see that those loan segments maintain a larger ACO coverage ratios and other nonowner-occupied real estate products. We're currently monitoring the entire portfolio closely and not see any systemic risk emerge as of the third quarter. That said, we do expect that the ongoing cash flow challenges facing existing and new projects, driven by higher interest rates and ongoing inflation could lead to further credit migration over time. Moving to Page 8. Net interest income in the third quarter equated to $116 million, including $2.2 million of purchase accounting accretion. Versus the prior year third quarter, net interest income decreased by $7.8 million or 6%, driven primarily by higher yields on deposits. As we expected, net interest margin declined marginally versus the second quarter of 2023 from 1 basis point to 302 basis points. Our current outlook reflects a scenario whereby Fed funds moves to between $5.50 and $5.75 by the end of 2023 and remain stable for the majority of 2024.Further rate increases, coupled with ongoing deposit competition could cause NII and NIM to decline further during the fourth quarter and into 2024. I'm moving to Page 9. In the chart, we highlight the approximately $7.3 billion of available liquidity sources that Hilltop maintained as of September 30th. We consider the Federal Reserve's discount window to be a source of liquidity, we plan to leverage that program under our internal liquidity modeling efforts, and as such, it's noted below our other collateralized borrowing sources. Further, comparable liquidity sources as of December 31st, 2022, equated to just over $7 billion and remained relatively stable throughout the prior quarters of the year. As is shown on the chart, at September 30th, Hilltop maintained $1.3 billion of excess reserves at the Federal Reserve. Additionally, in the bottom left chart, we provide detail on the pace of the deposit beta changes to date, noting that our current through-the-cycle beta are interest-bearing deposits at 62%. Further, we continue to expect that the marginal beta for any additional federal reserve rate actions will fall between 75% and 100%. As a result, we're now expecting that our through-the-cycle interest-bearing deposit betas will be within the 60% -70% range. Turning to Page 10. Third quarter average total deposits are approximately $11.2 billion remained largely stable versus the second quarter of 2023. On an ending balance basis, deposits decreased by $61 million to $11.1 billion from the prior quarter, largely driven by a decline in broker-dealer suite deposits, Hilltop PlainsCapital Bank. As a result of our ongoing pricing efforts, interest-bearing deposit costs rose to 323 basis points, an increase of 39 basis points from the prior quarter. As our expectation in interest-bearing deposit costs will continue to move higher for the balance of 2023, given our stated views on the path of potential rate increases from the Federal Reserve and the updates we've made to our pricing approach. As it relates to deposit balances and costs, we remain focused on balancing our competitive position with our long-term customer relationships, while we continue to focus on prudent management of net interest income over time. However, the current environment remains challenging. As noted earlier, we expect that the intensity of competition for deposits will continue to pressure rates higher over the coming quarters. Now moving to Page 11. Total noninterest income for the third quarter of 2023 equated to $197 million. Third quarter mortgage-related income and fees decreased by $9 million versus the third quarter of 2022, driven by the ongoing challenges in mortgage banking, whereby the combination of higher interest rates, home price inflation, limited housing supply and ongoing overcapacity in terms of mortgage originators across the U.S. has driven volumes and margins materially lower. Further, versus the prior year third quarter, purchase mortgage volumes decreased by $741 million or 26%, and refinance volumes decreased by $59 million or 28%. During the third quarter of 2023, gain on sale margins remained within the tight range we've seen over the last 12 months, remaining at what we believe are unsustainably low levels. We continue to expect that a full recovery in margins will occur slowly and likely will not be a straight line as industry capacity and other constraints remain.During the third quarter, TBA lock volumes increased substantially from second quarter 2023 levels to just under $3 billion. Lock volumes were substantially impacted by certain states providing additional state funding to support their housing, authorities and down payment assisted programs. While volumes are very strong. Secondary spreads in the market did contract substantially, reflecting the volatility in the current rate environment, causing net revenues to decline versus the prior year period. Somewhat offsetting the decline in structured finance revenues was an increase in fixed income capital markets fee revenues, which yielded a relatively stable other income versus the prior year period. As we've noted in the past, it's important to recognize that both the fixed income services and structured fans businesses at HilltopSecurities can be volatile from period-to-period as they are impacted by interest rates, overall market liquidity and production trends. Turning to Page 12. Noninterest expenses decreased from the same period in the prior year by $29 million to $260 million. Decrease in expenses versus the prior year third quarter was supported by decreases in variable compensation of approximately $14 million and PrimeLending and HilltopSecurities, which was linked to lower fee revenue generation and revenue mix contribution. Further, fixed expenses of PrimeLending have been reduced by over $14 million versus the prior year period, reflecting the ongoing work to resize our mortgage operations to support the current environment. Looking forward, we expect expenses other than variable compensation will remain relatively stable around $190 million per quarter as the ongoing focused efforts related to streamlining our operations and improving productivity, continue to support lower headcount and improved throughput across our franchise, helping to offset the ongoing inflationary pressures that persist in the market.Moving to Page 13. Third quarter average HFI loans equated to $8 billion, stable with second quarter 2023 levels. On a period-end basis, HFI loans declined versus the second quarter of 2023 by $150 million, driven by declines in mortgage warehouse lending and the net declines in the 1-4 family mortgage portfolio. We expect that loan growth will continue to slow into 2024 as 1-4 family retention levels remain low and commercial lending activity continues to contract. Early, we are expecting full year average bank loan growth of 2%-4% during 2023, excluding mortgage warehouse lending and any retained mortgages from prior lending. Turning to Page 14. Overall, credit quality has remained resilient through the third quarter. That said, during the period, we did have a few credits move into special mention as those customers' cash flows and resulting coverage ratios have deteriorated. We're working with those customers and monitoring their performance closely to ensure that we take prudent steps to manage our exposure over time. As shown in the bottom left chart, we recognized net recoveries of $1.6 million during the third quarter. Further, the graph on the upper right highlights that NPA levels have remained relatively stable in the third quarter of 2022, providing additional support and at this point, the cycle remains reasonably benign. Currently, we've not seen any purveiling trends that cause us outsized concern. We are monitoring our loans and borrowers closely as higher interest rates, potentially lower utilization rates in certain segments of commercial real estate and an expected slowdown in economic activity could have a negative impact on our clients and our portfolio.As is shown on the graph at the bottom right of the page, the allowance for credit loss coverage at the bank ended the third quarter at 1.41%, including mortgage warehouse lending. Turning to Page 15. As we move into the fourth quarter of 2023, there continues to be a lot of uncertainty in the market regarding interest rates, inflation and the overall health of the economy. That said, we revised some of our outlook metrics to reflect the shorter window of time remaining in 2023.We are pleased with the work that our team has delivered to position our company for times like these, and our teammates across our franchise remain focused on delivering great customer service to our clients, attracting new customers to our franchise, supporting the communities where we serve, maintaining a moderate risk profile and delivering long-term stockholder value. Current outlook for 2023 reflects our current assessment of the economy and the markets where we participate. Further, as the market changes, and we adjust our business to respond, we will provide updates to our outlook on future quarterly calls. Operator, that concludes our prepared comments, and we'll turn the call back to you for the Q&A section of the call.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Thomas Wendler from Stephens Inc.

[Tom Wendler, analyst]

I just wanted to touch on the C&I contraction we saw last quarter. Can you give us some color there? Was it lower utilization? Or what drove those lower balances?

[William Furr, executive]

C&I includes our mortgage warehouse lending business. By virtue of that, we saw a decline there, just over $90 million in the quarter drove the majority of.

[Tom Wendler, analyst]

Then just moving over to broker dealer. Typically, we see a strong close for the year in 4Q. Should we be expecting the same there this year?

[Jeremy Ford, executive]

I think that the public finance business typically builds throughout the year and has a pretty solid fourth quarter. I think in public finance, we would -- we're optimistic about that, albeit I think that we did have a pretty strong quarter of HilltopSecurities in our structured finance business, which is volatile, and we could see that decline from this third quarter.

[Tom Wendler, analyst]

With the stock now trading near tangible book value, what's your appetite for a buyback?

[Jeremy Ford, executive]

We constantly evaluate it, and we've shown that we will act when we think it's appropriate. Also in the context of the environment, we've been cautious this year.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Wood Lay from KBW.

[Wood Lay, analyst]

I wanted to start on the increase to special mention loans. Any color you could give on what drove that increase quarter-over-quarter?

[William Furr, executive]

We had a few credits move over one in particular out of our C&I business that, again, we're just monitoring the cash flows across our portfolio. They've seen some deterioration. Again, as is noted there in special mention, we're monitoring it much more closely and following up regularly with the client, working with them to try to help them work through a challenging environment here. Nothing, again, no large portfolio or other concentrations across the real estate book, principally a C&I client that is experiencing some cash flow challenges.

[Wood Lay, analyst]

If I look on the ACL breakdown on Slide 6 and the 2.7 release related to the economic conditions. Is that related to the Moody's forecast? Or is that driven by qualitative factors? Any color you can give there?

[William Furr, executive]

That's the Moody's forecast, just period-on-period. We maintained consistently the S7 scenario. We were using the S7 scenario, both prior quarter and current quarter and just modest improvements in the overall economic outlook, both timing and depth of potential recession in the future. Not a qualitative assessment.

[Wood Lay, analyst]

CET1 continues to increase from here. Capital levels are super strong. It sounds like buybacks in this current environment might be unlikely. Is a top priority for deploying that capital through M&A? Or any thoughts there?

[Jeremy Ford, executive]

We believe that through the cycle, deploying capital and M&A will be the highest return. We're actively evaluating that. On the capital front in the near term, as we've seen muted loan growth, and we saw some contraction in our balance sheet in the quarter. Then we'll also be generating capital and earnings. I would see our capital continue to go higher.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Graham Dick from Piper Sandler .

[Graham Dick, analyst]

I just wanted to touch on some of the NIM and balance sheet topics here, specifically noninterest-bearing. Obviously, it took another step down this quarter, which is what we've seen across the industry. Just wondering if you guys have any color on trends so far this quarter? What are you expecting going forward and maybe when you think balances might level out on noninterest-bearing?

[William Furr, executive]

You said that we've seen, I'd say, a reasonably consistent trend down in noninterest bearing from a mix perspective. We expect that likely continues. We've got a good solid base of noninterest-bearing related to our treasury services offerings that we provide to customers. That said, as rates move higher, obviously, the appetite from customers to move their excess deposits into interest-bearing products continues to grow. We would expect to see noninterest-bearing deposits decline, at least from our perspective in the next couple of quarters and really remixing into interest-bearing. Our view is deposits remain reasonably steady and stable from here for the next couple of quarters, but we continue to remix from noninterest-bearing into interest-bearing products over time.

[Graham Dick, analyst]

On the NII and the NIM, obviously, maybe a little bit, if your guidance 2.5% to 2% to 5%, for the full year, are you guys implying maybe that NII 4Q takes a similar step down as we saw this quarter, on a smaller balance sheet and the NIM holds in a little bit better?

[William Furr, executive]

We'll talk about NII first. From an NII perspective, we're expecting it will continue to trend modestly lower, not a significant step function lower, but modestly lower as you noted, the balance sheet has contracted modestly from an overall yield perspective, we are expecting deposit cost to continue to move higher. Without a significant shift or change in the Fed funds rate, our loan yields are moving higher, but moving higher to much more pace versus where deposit yields are, and we do expect those deposit yields move higher. From an NII perspective, we'd expect it to continue to step lower. From a NIM perspective, we'd also expect that to continue to trend lower. I think we've said that NIM over time likely moves toward 295. I think depending on the number of rate movements through the Federal Reserve, which with each rate movement, we've said we would expect further deterioration in NIM. I think we're expecting NIM to be between 290 and 3% given our current rate expectations that we outlined in our prepared comments.

[Graham Dick, analyst]

The last thing I wanted to hit on was just the provision going forward. Obviously, you guys tightened the guidance a little bit this quarter. Wondering what you guys are seeing into 2024 as it relates to the provision line and charge-offs. It sounded, just based on the guidance that you guys are a little bit more optimistic or the scenario is a little more optimistic on the economy from here.

[William Furr, executive]

Yes, I think as we tried to say in our prepared comments, the ACL, which changes which drives the provision can be volatile from quarter-to-quarter as you saw last quarter, we took a pretty significant provision, just under $15 million this quarter, near 0. The economic outlook can move and change that obviously will impact it pretty substantially. From a credit management perspective, as I noted in my comments, we haven't seen any material deterioration in large swaths of the portfolio as we noted, we're looking at office closely. We're looking at retail closely. We're looking across the portfolio for any negative migration as it relates to interest rates and overall interest payments relative to the cash flows. Again, to date, we haven't seen anything systemic in the portfolio that would cause us to expect the charge-off step up materially. Again, we highlight in all of our comments and try to put the announcement out there that the allowance and therefore, provision can be volatile based on the economic scenarios quarter-to-quarter.

[Operator]

There are no further questions. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask you to please disconnect your lines.