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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one GFL stock under the Base Case scenario is 29.99 USD. Compared to the current market price of 43.78 USD, GFL Environmental Inc is Overvalued by 31%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
GFL Environmental Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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GFL Environmental Inc. is a leading North American provider of diversified environmental services, dedicated to sustainable waste management and resource recovery. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario, GFL has quickly established itself as a key player in the waste industry, combining traditional waste collection and disposal with innovative recycling and renewable energy solutions. Its comprehensive services include solid waste management, street cleaning, and industrial services, catering to both residential and commercial customers across Canada and the United States. The company’s growth strategy centers around strategic acquisitions and expanding its service capabilitie...
GFL Environmental Inc. is a leading North American provider of diversified environmental services, dedicated to sustainable waste management and resource recovery. Founded in 2007 and headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario, GFL has quickly established itself as a key player in the waste industry, combining traditional waste collection and disposal with innovative recycling and renewable energy solutions. Its comprehensive services include solid waste management, street cleaning, and industrial services, catering to both residential and commercial customers across Canada and the United States. The company’s growth strategy centers around strategic acquisitions and expanding its service capabilities, allowing it to capture a larger market share in a sector that is increasingly driven by environmental accountability and regulatory compliance.
For investors, GFL Environmental represents an opportunity in a sector characterized by stable demand and recurring revenue streams, as waste management is essential regardless of economic fluctuations. The company’s commitment to sustainability not only aligns with global trends toward eco-friendliness but also positions it favorably as municipalities and industries seek partners that contribute to more responsible environmental practices. With a robust operational framework and a focus on continuous improvement, GFL is not only enhancing its competitive edge but also working towards a more sustainable future, making it an intriguing investment prospect for those looking to capitalize on the convergence of profitability and sustainability in a growing industry.
GFL Environmental Inc. operates in several core business segments within the environmental services industry. As of my last update, these segments primarily include:
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Solid Waste Management: This is one of GFL's largest business segments and involves the collection, transfer, and disposal of municipal solid waste. The company provides waste management services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This segment helps municipalities and businesses manage the waste generated, ensuring proper disposal and compliance with environmental regulations.
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Environmental Services: GFL offers a range of environmental services that include hazardous waste management, remediation, and environmental consulting. This segment addresses the needs of clients requiring specialized services in handling hazardous materials and cleanup operations.
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Recycling Services: The company provides recycling services aimed at minimizing waste through the collection, sorting, and processing of recyclable materials. This segment is increasingly important as businesses and municipalities aim to meet sustainability goals.
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Infrastructure and Industrial Services: GFL also operates in the infrastructure sector, providing services such as site preparation, demolition, and construction waste management. This segment serves industrial clients with a focus on creating safe and compliant work environments.
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Organics Processing: This segment involves composting organic waste materials, diverting them from landfills, and converting them into usable products. With growing environmental concerns, this area of business is expected to expand as demand for sustainable waste solutions increases.
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Landfill Operations: GFL operates landfills that are designed to safely dispose of non-recyclable solid waste. This segment not only provides a disposal option but also includes services aimed at environmental protection and compliance.
These segments allow GFL Environmental Inc. to offer comprehensive environmental solutions, catering to a wide range of customer needs while promoting sustainability practices. As they operate in various sectors, GFL can leverage synergies across its business lines to enhance operational efficiency and drive long-term growth.
GFL Environmental Inc. has established several unique competitive advantages that position it favorably against its rivals in the waste management and environmental services sectors. Here are some key advantages:
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Diversified Services Portfolio: GFL offers a wide range of services, including solid waste management, recycling, organic waste processing, and environmental services. This diversification increases revenue streams and reduces dependency on any single service line.
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Geographic Reach: GFL has a strong presence across Canada and the United States, allowing it to serve a wide array of customers and have a more stable revenue base. The broad geographic footprint helps mitigate regional risks and capitalizes on various market opportunities.
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Focus on Sustainability: GFL is committed to sustainability and environmental responsibility, which resonates with increasingly eco-conscious consumers and businesses. Their investments in recycling and waste-to-energy technologies enhance their competitive position in a market that values green practices.
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Economies of Scale: As one of the largest waste management companies in North America, GFL benefits from economies of scale. This allows them to operate more efficiently, negotiate better contracts with suppliers, and potentially offer lower prices or enhanced services.
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Technology and Innovation: GFL invests in technology to improve operational efficiency and service delivery. This includes the use of advanced tracking and management systems for waste collection and disposal, which can lead to cost savings and enhanced customer service.
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Strong Acquisition Strategy: GFL has a proactive approach to growth through acquisitions. This strategy not only expands their service capabilities and geographic reach but also enables them to capture synergies from integrating smaller firms.
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Customer-centric Approach: GFL emphasizes strong customer relationships and tailored service solutions. Their focus on customer satisfaction helps retain clients and attract new ones through positive word-of-mouth and referrals.
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Experienced Management Team: The leadership team at GFL, which has experience in the waste management industry, provides strategic direction and operational expertise that can be a significant differentiator in this competitive market.
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Regulatory Compliance: Maintaining high standards of compliance with environmental regulations and safety can be seen as a competitive advantage, as it builds trust with customers and avoids costly fines or disruptions in service.
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Brand Reputation: As GFL continues to position itself as a leader in environmental services, its brand reputation can serve as a competitive barrier, attracting higher-quality clients and long-term contracts.
These competitive advantages, combined with a strategic focus on operational excellence and market expansion, enable GFL Environmental Inc. to differentiate itself from its competitors in the waste management industry.
GFL Environmental Inc, like many companies in the environmental services sector, faces a range of risks and challenges that could impact its operations and growth in the near future. Here are some of the key risks and challenges:
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Regulatory Changes: Environmental regulations can change rapidly and may become more stringent. Compliance with these regulations requires significant investment and can impact profitability. Any failure to comply may result in fines or operational restrictions.
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Market Competition: The waste management and environmental services sector is highly competitive. New entrants or aggressive competitors could pressure pricing and market share, impacting GFL’s profitability.
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Economic Conditions: Economic downturns can affect industrial activity and consumer spending, leading to reduced demand for services. GFL’s revenue is also tied to the economic environment, so a recession could pose a significant challenge.
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Rising Operating Costs: Increases in labor costs, fuel prices, and materials can affect operational margins. Improved efficiencies are critical to maintain profitability amid rising costs.
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Technological Changes: The environmental sector is undergoing significant technological advancements. Keeping up with new technologies and processes is essential for maintaining a competitive edge but may also require substantial investment.
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Environmental Liability: As an environmental services company, GFL is subject to liability for environmental damage related to its services. Any incidents could lead to costly legal battles and reputational damage.
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Public Perception and ESG Issues: Increasing scrutiny regarding environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues can influence GFL's market position. Failing to meet ESG expectations can harm public perception and customer loyalty.
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Geopolitical Risks: International operations expose GFL to geopolitical risks that can impact supply chains, costs, and regulatory environments across different regions.
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Acquisition Integration: GFL has grown through acquisitions, which can present challenges in integrating diverse corporate cultures, systems, and practices. Failing to successfully integrate acquired companies can lead to operational inefficiencies.
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Labor Shortages: The industry faces challenges in recruiting and retaining skilled labor. A shortage of qualified personnel can impact service quality and operational efficiency.
To navigate these risks, GFL Environmental Inc will need to focus on strategic planning, risk management, and operational efficiencies. Continuous investment in technology and a strong commitment to ESG principles will also be crucial for sustaining growth and facing competition.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
GFL Environmental Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
GFL Environmental Inc
Current Assets | 1.6B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 134.2m |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 289.4m |
Non-Current Assets | 18.7B |
Long-Term Investments | 312.9m |
PP&E | 7.3B |
Intangibles | 10.7B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 287.6m |
Current Liabilities | 1.8B |
Accounts Payable | 1.7B |
Other Current Liabilities | 143.3m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 11.7B |
Long-Term Debt | 10.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 1.7B |
Earnings Waterfall
GFL Environmental Inc
Revenue
|
7.6B
CAD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-6.3B
CAD
|
Gross Profit
|
1.4B
CAD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-1.1B
CAD
|
Operating Income
|
313.4m
CAD
|
Other Expenses
|
-1.1B
CAD
|
Net Income
|
-766.8m
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
GFL Environmental Inc
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
GFL Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
GFL Environmental Inc's profitability score is 41/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
GFL Environmental Inc's profitability score is 41/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
GFL Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
GFL Environmental Inc's solvency score is 25/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
GFL Environmental Inc's solvency score is 25/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
GFL Price Targets Summary
GFL Environmental Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GFL is 42.27 USD with a low forecast of 25.57 USD and a high forecast of 53.16 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for GFL is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
GFL Environmental, Inc. engages in the provision of ecological solutions. The company is headquartered in Vaughan, Ontario and currently employs 18,000 full-time employees. The firm is engaged in providing non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation services and liquid waste management services. Its segments include Solid waste, which includes hauling, landfill, transfers and material recovery facilities; Infrastructure and soil remediation, and Liquid waste. Its infrastructure and soil remediation segment offers safe, integrated, first-on-site services for infrastructure development or construction needs. The company also offers ex-situ bioremediation for contaminated soils, and arranges excavation and transportation of soil to one of its licensed remediation facilities. Its Liquid waste segment offers automotive waste fluid services, vacuum truck and hydrovac services, hazardous waste handling services, emergency response and site remediation, and specialized services and industrial cleaning.
Officers
The intrinsic value of one GFL stock under the Base Case scenario is 29.99 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 43.78 USD, GFL Environmental Inc is Overvalued by 31%.