Geo Group Inc
NYSE:GEO

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Geo Group Inc
NYSE:GEO
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Price: 28.67 USD -0.21% Market Closed
Market Cap: 4B USD
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one GEO stock under the Base Case scenario is 19.4 USD. Compared to the current market price of 28.67 USD, Geo Group Inc is Overvalued by 32%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

GEO Intrinsic Value
19.4 USD
Overvaluation 32%
Intrinsic Value
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Base Case
Best Case

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Geo Group Inc

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

Economic Moat
Geo Group Inc

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Geo Group Inc

Current Assets 490.4m
Cash & Short-Term Investments 46.3m
Receivables 384.1m
Other Current Assets 60m
Non-Current Assets 3.2B
Long-Term Investments 8.1m
PP&E 2B
Intangibles 887.2m
Other Non-Current Assets 243.3m
Current Liabilities 388.9m
Accounts Payable 76.3m
Accrued Liabilities 288.1m
Other Current Liabilities 24.4m
Non-Current Liabilities 2B
Long-Term Debt 1.7B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 233.9m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Geo Group Inc

Revenue
2.4B USD
Cost of Revenue
-1.8B USD
Gross Profit
656.1m USD
Operating Expenses
-329m USD
Operating Income
327.1m USD
Other Expenses
-299.4m USD
Net Income
27.7m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Geo Group Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

In the third quarter of 2024, GEO Group reported a net income of $26 million and revenues of $603 million, consistent with the previous year. The company projects fourth-quarter earnings per share between $0.19 and $0.22, with EBITDA expected between $114 million and $124 million. Debt reduction efforts are on track, with net debt projected to drop to approximately $1.67 billion by year-end, aided by lower interest expenses. GEO also plans to activate previously idle facilities, potentially generating an additional $300 million in revenues. As ICE funding likely increases, GEO is well-positioned to expand its operations significantly in response to anticipated demand.

What is Earnings Call?
Fundamental Scores

GEO Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Geo Group Inc's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

50/100
Profitability
Score

Geo Group Inc's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

GEO Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Geo Group Inc's solvency score is 41/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Long-Term Solvency
Short-Term Solvency
Average D/E
Low Altman Z-Score
41/100
Solvency
Score

Geo Group Inc's solvency score is 41/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

GEO Price Targets Summary
Geo Group Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast GEO stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEO is 29.78 USD with a low forecast of 17.17 USD and a high forecast of 38.85 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
17.17 USD
40% Downside
Average
Price Target
29.78 USD
4% Upside
Highest
Price Target
38.85 USD
36% Upside
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Dividends

Dividend Yield
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Dividend Per Share
N/A
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Growth 10Y
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0
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Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for GEO is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

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Ownership

GEO Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
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GEO News

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Profile

Geo Group Inc Logo
Geo Group Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Commercial Services & Supplies

Market Cap

4B USD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

The GEO Group, Inc. is a real estate investment trust, which specializes in the ownership, lease, and management of correctional, detention, and re-entry facilities. The company is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida and currently employs 15,800 full-time employees. The firm provides technologies and monitoring services, and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based programs. The company also provides transportation services domestically and in the United Kingdom through GEOAmey PECS Ltd. The company operates through four segments. U.S. Secure Services segment primarily encompasses its U.S.-based public-private partnership secure services business. Its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, which conducts its services in the U.S., consists of its electronic monitoring and supervision services. Reentry Services segment consists of various community-based and reentry services. International Services segment primarily consists of its public-private partnership secure services operations in Australia and South Africa.

Contact

FLORIDA
Boca Raton
4955 Technology Way
+15618930101.0
www.geogroup.com

IPO

1994-07-27

Employees

15 800

Officers

Founder & Executive Chairman of the Board
Dr. George C. Zoley Ph.D.
Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Brian R. Evans
President & COO
Mr. Wayne H. Calabrese
SVP, President of Secure Services & President of U.S. Corrections, Detention and International Ops
Mr. James H. Black
Advisor
Mr. Jose Gordo J.D.
CFO & Senior VP
Mr. Mark J. Suchinski
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Executive VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Controller
Mr. Ronald A. Brack
Executive VP, Chief Information Officer & Chief Information Security Officer
Jose Rosario
Senior VP, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Mr. Joe Negron
Executive Vice President of Contract Compliance
Daniel H. Ragsdale
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one GEO stock?

The intrinsic value of one GEO stock under the Base Case scenario is 19.4 USD.

Is GEO stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 28.67 USD, Geo Group Inc is Overvalued by 32%.

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