First Bancorp

NYSE:FBP

Earnings Call Analysis

Investor Summary: Stable Margins and Capital Strength

Interest income grew with increased consumer and commercial loans, yet total assets decreased by $269 million. Funding cost pressures persisted, shifting deposits from noninterest-bearing to interest ones, raising interest expenses by $6.1M. Net interest margin for the quarter was flat at 414 basis points, tempered by fund cost growth. Nevertheless, margins are expected to improve as higher yielding loans replace low-yield investment portfolio assets. Non-performing assets (NPAs) fell by $4.3M to $226M, with capital ratios remaining robust. Efficiency ratio should steady around 52%. Quarterly expense was affected by a one-off FDIC assessment, but future quarters forecasted expenses of $120M-$122M. Market contraction continues, predominantly in deposit liquidity, but signs of margin pickup are anticipated with potential rate cuts.

Interest Income and Loan Growth Amid Market Shifts

The bank's performance reflected an increase in interest income from consumer and commercial lending, rising by $2.9 million and $2.1 million, respectively, primarily due to growth in these portfolios. However, the bank faced challenges with funding costs, as a decline in core deposits and the shift from noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits increased expenses. Despite a decline in total average earning assets by $269 million, loans grew by $233 million in the fourth quarter. The bank expects a $1 billion turnover from investment portfolio cash flows throughout 2024, suggesting a potential improvement in net interest income as higher-yielding loans replace lower-yielding investments.

Stable Net Interest Margin and Projection of Rate Cuts

The net interest margin (NIM) remained stable at 414 basis points—almost unchanged from the previous quarter's 415. A shift in asset mix led to higher yields but was offset by increased funding costs. The bank forecasts improvements with plans for Federal funds rate cuts starting in April 2024, anticipating these rate adjustments to be integrated into their margin and income projections.

Pressure on Deposit Costs and Asset Quality

There was pressure on interest-bearing account costs, with the average cost of nonbroker time deposits increasing by 26 basis points due to the issue of new time deposits at higher rates. In terms of asset quality, nonperforming assets (NPAs) decreased by $4.3 million, mainly due to collections and improvements in commercial loan portfolios. However, early delinquency loans increased by approximately $14 million, predominantly in consumer portfolios. The increase in consumer loan delinquency led to a $3 million rise in the allowance for credit losses (ACL) for consumer loans, despite overcharge-offs for the quarter at 69 basis points.

Capital Position and Shareholder Return

The bank maintains a robust capital position, with most ratios indicating a well-capitalized status, allowing the company to undertake $75 million in share buybacks and pay out $24 million in common dividends during the fourth quarter. It's fair to continue expecting a 100% payout in terms of dividends and buybacks in the near term as the company's capital generation exceeds its growth needs.

Guidance and Market Outlook

The bank projects mid-single-digit loan growth and is cautiously optimistic about exceeding this target, especially with expected disbursements in the construction portfolio. Market conditions and potential rate cuts could further incentivize investments and improve performance. However, noise in global markets and rates is a consideration, and the bank reaffirms its commitment to the guidance of mid-single-digit loan growth while aiming for better results.

Interest Rate Environment and Securities Portfolio

The bank anticipates benefiting from an interest rate environment that may lead to NIM improvements, assuming market rates move as expected and deposit costs are managed effectively. The coming year's turnover of securities yielding approximately 1.5% on a nontaxable equivalent basis offers a substantial opportunity for replacing them with higher-yielding loans.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to First BanCorp. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Financial Results. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn this conference call over to our host, Ramon Rodrigue, Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy and Investment Relations. Please go ahead.

[Ramon Rodriguez, executive]

Thank you, Candice. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining First BanCorp's conference call and webcast to discuss the company's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023.

Joining you today from First BanCorp. are Aurelio Aleman, President and Chief Executive Officer and Orlando Berges, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin today's call, it is my responsibility to inform you that this call may involve certain forward-looking statements such as projections of revenue, earnings and capital structure as well as statements on the plans and objectives of the company's business. The company's actual results could differ materially from the forward-looking statements made due to the important factors described in the company's latest SEC filings. The company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during the call. If anyone does not already have a copy of the webcast presentation or press release, you can access them at our website at Fbpinvestor.com. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Aurelio Aleman.

[Aurelio Alemán-Bermúdez, executive]

Thanks, [indiscernible]. Good morning to everyone, and thanks for joining our earnings call today. I will begin by briefly discussing our business performance for the fourth quarter first. Then we'll move on to provide some high-level highlights for the full year and then share with you some of our priorities for 2024. Our fourth quarter results were highlighted by strong profitability and nongrowth. We earn $79.5 million or $2 per share and generated a 1.7% return on assets. Our expenses for the quarter were impacted by a $6.3 million FDIC special assessment expense.

Excluding this special item, the adjusted efficiency ratio was 52.2% for the quarter. The quarter also reflected higher provision expense and some incremental operating expenses, which Orlando will cover both detail later. The loan portfolio expanded by $233 million or 7.8% linked quarter annualized, driven by growth across all business segments, particularly the strong commercial and auto loan origination as we continue to deepen our share in those markets.

Core deposits contracted slightly by 2% as we continue to see a gradual erosion of excess liquidity across our markets and NPA decreased again to just 67 basis points of total assets. We said for some time that credit metrics will gradually move closer to historical levels as the positive impact of excess liquidity related to the pandemic stimulus on the consumer decreases. We saw a little bit of that in the fourth quarter, actually also in the third quarter. with the charge-off rate and [indiscernible] delinquency for the consumer book registering a slight increase when compared to previous quarters.

That said, our NPA and classified asset levels remain at multiyear lows and our reserve coverage ratio also very solid, and we continue to sustain and enforce our product remain culture. Definitely, we're ready to withstand any additional deterioration as those rates move closer to the norm. Finally, it was a great quarter in terms of our capital position. Our tangible book value per share increased by 19%, and the TCE ratio improved to 7.7% and mostly driven by the favorable variance in the value of our bond book given the reduction in market rates during the quarter. This was accomplished even while repurchasing $75 million in common shares, as we have indicated and paying $24 million in dividends.

Let's move to Slide 5 to provide some highlights on the full year. Definitely, the '23 performance showcases our attractive profitability and improved risk profile, even when, as we all know, operator in a challenging rate environment for our industry, most importantly, it highlighted our capital management discipline and return flexibility. We generated 1.62% return on asset for the year and 41% return on equity adjusted for the impact of the [indiscernible].

We added $628 million or 5.4% to the loan portfolio in the year, while deposits or [indiscernible] contracted by 1.7%. Our strong and diversified deposit franchise is evident by still healthy noninterest-bearing ratio of 34% at the end of the year and a loan-to-deposit ratio of 77%. This achievement support our goal of delivering close to 100% of annual earnings to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends for the third consecutive year.

As we mentioned before, this year, March 2023 marked our 75th anniversary and we are very pleased on how our [indiscernible] supported businesses, households and ultimately, the Puerto Rico economy and our market during this period by how we continue investing in our people, upgrading our product offerings and services, investing in technology, operation and infrastructure and improving our operating leverage in the long run.

I want to thank all my colleagues for their variable contribution and dedication during the year and also our customers that we serve on a daily basis, our communities and our shareholders for the support. As we look forward to 2024, we expect to continue our loan growth momentum, continue gaining market share and improving our loan book on what we consider is a stable economy across our markets, including Miami, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Our goal is to again achieve mid-single-digit loan growth for the year organically.

However, we do continue to expect that average deposit balance will gradually come down in line with recent trends in the market as assess liquidity in the system decreases during the year, our top priority for the year #1 will be to leverage the short duration of the investment portfolio to redeploy low yield maturity securities cash flow into higher-yielding assets, also actively -- proactively managing credit, particularly on the consumer lending businesses.

Finally, we continue to be very well positioned to deploy our capital based on our healthy capital levels and our ability to consistently generate organic capital. We still have ample buyback capacity with $150 million in buyback left on our current authorization, we will continue to monitor the general macro outlook and continue to execute the remaining buyback authorization during the year, beginning in the first quarter of this year.

Now I will turn the call over to Orlando to go over the financial results in more detail, and we'll come back for questions later.

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Good morning, everyone. As Aurelio mentioned at the beginning of the call, we reported $75.5 million gain for the fourth quarter. It's -- this is $2.5 million lower than the third quarter. However, earnings per share for the quarter were $0.46, which is the same we had on the third quarter. These results include a $6.3 million charge for the onetime EBITDAC assessment as well as a $3 million gain on the sale of a banking facility in our Florida region. The provision expense for the quarter increased to $18.8 million as compared to $4.4 million last quarter. As you may recall from last quarter's earnings call, the lower provision in the third quarter reflected the benefit of what we define as a less severe economic outlook on the third quarter that the one we had forecasted on the second quarter.

This quarter, the outlook remains similar. So the increase was mostly related to the larger loan portfolios and the higher level of consumer charge-offs to some extent. The income tax expense for the quarter was $5.4 million, which compares to the $27 million we had in the third quarter. The effective tax rate came down from 28.2% we had for the third quarter to 23.5%. As we ended up the year conducting during the fourth quarter, several activities that were not previously forecasted and which have tax advantages on the Puerto Rico code.

Also, we had lower pretax income on the quarter, which also translated into reduced tax. We look forward based on the current strategies that we have, we expect that the effective tax rate for 2024 will be around that 24% range, slightly under, slightly over, but it should be somewhere in that range. For the full year, net income was a full year '23. I mean net income was $303 million. It's pretty much in line with the $305 million we had in 2022, but earnings per share were higher at $1.71 compared to $1.59 we had a prior year. This is directly a result of the benefit of the lower share count due to the share buybacks we have been executing over the year and also in 2022.

Also, as Aurelio mentioned, we delivered strong return on average assets, again, [ 162 ] and ROE with on average equity was 23.7%. And which we adjust to eliminate the other comprehensive loss would represent 14.1%, both solid numbers.

In terms of net interest income, the quarter shows $196.7 million of net interest income, which is $3 million below the third quarter. The third quarter, however, did include $1.2 million we collected on a construction loan that had been charged off in prior years. Therefore, the reduction -- the real reduction was $1.8 million. The interest income on loans increased $6.1 million in the quarter, which was, to some extent, offset by a $3.9 million decrease in other earning assets, mostly cash and securities, but interest expense grew by $5.4 million.

The lending side interest income grew $2.9 million in consumer and $2.1 million in commercial. Most of the growth was in those 2 portfolios. And overall, however, even though loans increased during the quarter, total average earning assets did decrease by $269 million. The quarter we -- in the quarter, we continue to see funding cost pressures, the excess liquidity in the market has continued to decline, which resulted in decreases in retail and commercial core deposits that excludes [indiscernible] funds. We also continue to see the impact of the shift from noninterest-bearing deposits into interest-bearing deposits.

Even though when looking at the quarter in our interest-bearing deposits declined only $36 million -- in reality, the formal $100 million decline we had in the third quarter impacted significantly the funding costs for the fourth quarter. These deposits have been moving into time deposits or other interest-bearing options or ultimately, we have been replacing some of them with wholesale funding sources. To put in perspective, over the last 6 months of '23 time deposits grew $153 million, and a large portion came from these deposits.

On the other hand, during the quarter, we saw that the trend in the pace of core deposit cost increases have slowed down as market interest rates have stabilized. The average cost of interest-bearing checking and savings accounts other than public funds remained stable at 73 basis points when compared to the prior quarter. Also, we have seen deposit repricing pressures on the government deposits easing up. The cost of these deposits increased only 14 basis points in the quarter, which compares to our 54 basis points increase we had in the third quarter.

The increase in this quarter in reality was mostly a lag effect from last quarter repricing since short-term market interest rates on average did not increase this quarter, which is an indicator of the structure used for pricing government deposits. That said, we did have a $6.1 million increase in interest expense on broker and time deposits during the quarter as we increased average brokered deposits by $253 million and average time deposits by $85 million.

The yield or the cost of nonbroker time deposits increased 26 basis points during the quarter. A lot has to do with also with the maturing time deposits that gets issue at new rates. The overall funding cost impact has been impacted by the pickup on the yields from the growth in the loan portfolio. Loans, as you saw the release grew $233 million in the fourth quarter and have grown to [indiscernible] million since the end of the second quarter. And looking at this specifically at the yield in the fourth quarter, the loan yields increased 7 basis points.

Margin for the quarter was relatively flat at 414, almost the same as last quarter, which was 415. We have seen a change in the mix of earning assets, resulting in higher yields, but has been offset by the increase in the cost of funds. As we discussed last quarter with the assumption that a market interest rate would stabilize or start to come down, we expect that the inflection point for net interest margin would happen somewhere between the end of '23 and the first quarter of '24 and we see that happening already. And assuming no meaningful changes to deposit balances, net interest income should improve in 2024 as higher yielding loans will be funded with the cash flows that are going from the investment portfolio, which is a much lower yielding.

We made those cash flows for 2024 to be around $1 billion throughout the year. A good chunk comes in the second half because of maturity, but it's still throughout the full year. Our interest rate forecast is fairly consistent with the forward yield curve. And our planning assumption is that future Fed funds rate cuts will begin in April. That's what we've been using for the assumptions in the -- in the net interest margin and net interest income projections.

Looking at other income. We had a $3.3 million increase to $33.6 million during the quarter. It was driven by a $3 million gain on the sale of the banking facility in Florida. If we exclude this item, the other income was essentially flat versus the prior quarter. Expenses increased $10 million during the quarter, but was largely driven by that the $6.3 million onetime FDIC special assessment. Excluding this IM adjustment expenses were $120.3 million, which results in an efficiency ratio of $52.2 million during the quarter.

Business promotion increased $2 million for the quarter, which related to year-end marketing efforts and completion of some of the activities of the 35 anniversary celebration, including some customer activities. And you also saw that OREO gains decreased $1 million for the quarter. In terms of expenses over the last few quarters, we have been guiding expenses to fall within $118 million to $120 million, excluding the benefit of the OREO gains.

Looking at the fourth quarter, excluding the OREO expenses fell above that range at $121.3 million. And looking at current pace and some of the strategies counting for some seasonality and things like payroll taxes, we believe that expenses for the first couple of quarters of 2024 to be in the range of $120 million to $122 million per quarter and the efficiency ratio should be -- should hold around that 52% that we just had.

In terms of asset quality, NPAs decreased $4.3 million to $226 million, represents 67 basis points of our total assets. Most of the reduction relates to $7.7 million in collections and loans returned to accrual status in the commercial loan portfolios. That includes a $2.7 million commercial real estate loan that occurred during the quarter. This reduction was partially offset by a $3.3 million increase in the consumer nonaccrual loans.

Total inflows to nonaccrual during the quarter were $35 million, with just $5 million less than the last quarter. This net impact of some increases in consumer and decreases in the commercial portfolio. However, loans in early delinquency defined as 30 to 89 days did increase by approximately $14 million, and it was mostly a $15 million increase in the consumer portfolios that we had in the quarter. In terms of the allowance, allowance ended up at $269 million, which is $1.8 million less than prior [indiscernible]. However, given the rise in the consumer loan delinquency and some of the charge-off impacts, the ACL on just consumer did increase $3 million during the quarter to 3.64% of loans.

Overall, charge-off for the quarter was 69 basis points, as you saw in the release. The AC -- the allowance for credit losses consistently with prior quarter. It's estimated using a combination of a baseline downside economic scenario. Therefore, we see providing very adequate coverage for any possible losses. In terms of capital, our ratios remain very strong, significantly well capitalized with most of the ratios either had a small decrease or a small increase as the earnings generated during the quarter mostly compensated for the $75 million in share buybacks we executed during the fourth quarter and the $24 million in common dividends that were paid.

Total GAAP equity increased to $1.5 billion. Basically, the improvement in interest rates and the overall environment resulted in a $212 million increase in the fair value of available for sale securities and therefore, reduce the other comprehensive loss adjustment. Tangible book value per share as a result, increased by 19% to $1.54 and the tangible commodity ratio increased to 7.7%.

Still, when you look at the remaining other comprehensive loss adjustment, it represents approximately $3.74 in tangible value per share and over 300 basis points in the tangible common equity ratio. Assuming rates remain stable, we will continue to recover this other comprehensive loss based on [indiscernible] duration of our investment portfolio. And as we have mentioned in prior calls, we continue to reiterate our intention and our ability to retain this investment through maturity.

With that, I would like to open the call for questions. Thanks.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] So our first question comes from the line of Timur Braziler of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

[Timur Braziler, analyst]

Starting on the deposit side, I'm just wondering how cost trend that lag effect of public funds is in the rear view. You mentioned excess liquidity in your prepared comments a couple of times. I'm just wondering, can you frame what you consider excess liquidity remaining on your deposit base? Has that exits? Is the expectation that it's backfilled with broker deposits and then all in, kind of what does that mean for deposit pricing and cost as we go through the first couple of quarters of '24?

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Well, in terms of cost, clearly, what I mentioned in the call -- in the remarks, it's that with rates being stable as we have seen over the last couple of months and the possibility of rates coming down, we believe that we're going to start seeing cost reductions in the market in terms of deposits. The only question continues to be still there could be some shift. We have a strong 34% noninterest-bearing ratio to total deposits. Noninterest-bearing deposits to total deposits. And we could still see a little bit, although that slowed down a lot in the quarter, that migrates to higher cost. . Not all the time deposit portfolio has repriced, still some of the older things are coming due. And that should be some of the other side of it -- of the impact on the cost. But clearly, on the -- most of the noninterest-bearing -- I'm sorry, interest-bearing savings and checking accounts were there and government repricing shouldn't change much based on these rates. In terms of the liquidity of the excess liquidity, it's obviously, what we have seen is the market.

[Unknown Executive]

Yes, market contracted overall market, Puerto Rico main market contracted about 3% in the first 3 quarters of our market of -- of about 3% of the overall -- deposit about 7 -- contract 7% in the Florida market. So when we say excess liquidity we really talk about -- there was a significant incremental liquidity that took place during the pandemic in 2021 and 2022 actually started in 2020 that started obviously normalizing in 2023. And we probably expect a few more quarters of that normalization on the deposit, which is customers using that liquidity that they had in the accounts and they've been buying more or consuming more. And those -- it's based on the data that we do expect that liquidity to be utilized. It was larger the contraction in the U.S. than in Puerto Rico. But also on a per capita basis, the pandemic brought more money into Puerto Rico resin than actually the U.S. [indiscernible] capital basis.

[Timur Braziler, analyst]

Okay. And then maybe pulling it all together and looking at NII trajectory in anticipation of a forward in anticipation of kind of modeling in the forward yield curve forward rate curve. We have inflection in 1Q. You're assuming rate cuts begin in 2Q. Can you give us a sense of what NII trajectory looks like as we go through the year?

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Well, in terms of [indiscernible] percentages, we haven't given specific guidance, but yes, we're assuming that there is going to be a pickup on the margin going up with those assumptions on the way the market rates move. Again, it goes back to the $1 billion in securities that will -- cash flows would come in -- those securities are yielding less than 1.5%. That would be replaced with the lending side. The consumer lending portfolio, it's a fixed rate portfolio as well as most of the CRE portfolio. So those will continue to be there. But assuming rates move as expected, conversations of 4 to 5 break cuts in the year should also lower the cost of deposits that would compensate for that, and the wholesale funding components are short-term in nature. So they would be replaced with shorter -- lower rates. Therefore, we are assuming that net interest margin should start picking up going forward.

The 1 caveat on the deposits is that obviously the noninterest-bearing component, we saw more stability in the fourth quarter. But if it changes a lot, changes a little bit the dynamics, but still the overall, I believe, trend would be, as I just mentioned, with some improvements in margin.

[Aurelio Alemán-Bermúdez, executive]

Actually and the other components we have -- have a larger portfolio starting the quarter than we had the prior quarter in terms of the loan portfolio size, yes.

[Timur Braziler, analyst]

Got it. That's good color. And then just last from me, looking at credit, we're continuing to see a normalization of the consumer. It seems like from a charge-off standpoint I guess, a, how close are we to retain what you ultimately expect to be a normalization in net charge-offs? And then looking at the allowance ratio, that's moved lower every quarter in '23. Is that a sign of confidence around broader credit? And could it ultimately get back to a level prepandemic in the [indiscernible] again? .

[Unknown Executive]

Yes. Yes. First, I think we probably have a couple of more quarters of this consumer normalization closer to midyear, we'll guess. On the other hand, remember that charge off of consumer, they don't accumulate. So they move to charge off pretty quickly. So they cycle pretty quickly. So -- so the ACL, the allowance that you state is a function of what remains on the portfolio. And obviously, the coverage you see on the provision every quarter, we have to increase the coverage or not to absorb the losses. So we haven't done a projection on that matter. But as of today, obviously, if you take it by [indiscernible] one business, showing much better metrics than prepandemic. As you mentioned, commercial also and consumers still not getting there multiple products, which [indiscernible] book, which is now 3.6 billion. So under that auto is a primary and is still registering much better performance with internal charge-off rate than we had pre-pandemic.

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Yes. The -- what you're seeing is that the commercial side it's behaving very well. So we have seen some of that reduction coming on the commercial portfolios. As you have seen on the release. The consumer side has increased in the allowance coverage only because of this trend. The -- you mentioned a 1.7% or something in the call. I don't remember what you [indiscernible] referring to, but we can discuss more. We were above 1.7% if you were talking [indiscernible] pre-pandemic. So we'll -- we can discuss later if you want a little bit of those ratios.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Alex Twerdahl of Piper Sandler.

[Alexander Roberts Twerdahl, analyst]

Orlando, with respect to your NII and your NIM guidance which I think you said is inclusive of rate cuts. What if we don't get rate cuts? Is the repricing in the -- on the asset side, you think sufficient to fully offset deposit, I guess, continued deposit pressure?

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

I believe so, Alex. The -- remember that a significant portion of the pressure came on the way pricing in the market was for growing deposits. Rate stay where we are, it shouldn't be similar that repricing shouldn't be similar to what we faced in the past. The only repricing on the deposit side would definitely come from the maturing time deposits. Still, that is a manageable one. But once you consider that that the lending portfolio is larger. It has a yield about 7% meaning on the commercial side, it's going to be a little bit less combined, but it's still a very ample yield. And the fact that the investment portfolio, as I mentioned, continues to run off, and it's a very low yielding, we should definitely be able to still increase the margins assuming those components. .

[Alexander Roberts Twerdahl, analyst]

Okay. And then you kind of alluded a little bit to sort of the yield on commercial loans. Can you just give us a sense for like what sort of spreads are like down there right now? We've seen a pretty big pullback in the 5-year. And I think some bank managements are saying that customers are demanding that, and others are saying that they've got pricing power. I'm just kind of curious where you're able to put on new production in Puerto Rico.

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

The overall yields on the commercial portfolio -- on the portfolio, on the general loan portfolio, it's about [indiscernible] as of the -- for the third quarter. The spreads, we continue to price similarly, which are based on market rates. So we try to sustain a spread according to internal profitability models that we want to achieve on each case, considering operating expenses and things like that. So you'll see depending on the kind of loan and the kind of pricing somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5% spreads. But it all depends on the terms and the nature of the facility. So over market terms, I'm assuming or market rates.

So the consumer side -- we continue to see on the auto yields above 8%. The credit card, it's priced out of a prime rate. So it's in the 16% to 18% range. And obviously, residential, we do exactly the same as you see in the market in the U.S. But we are not adding too much in terms of portfolio on the residential side. So the average yields on that portfolio are about 570 or 580 on the overall portfolio. And that should stay somewhere in there because of the movement of the new cases. The repayments are offsetting a lot of what we put in and the new things we put in.

[Alexander Roberts Twerdahl, analyst]

Great. And then I guess just a final question for me. Just as I think about capital and capital generation. And really, you think, mentioned in your prepared remarks, third year of 100% payout. And -- you think about the growth down in Puerto Rico, it seems like the growth that's available, even though it's picked up a lot is probably still not sufficient to utilize the full amount of capital that you guys generate every year. So is it fair to assume a 100% payout with respect to dividend buyback in the near term should continue?

[Aurelio Alemán-Bermúdez, executive]

Yes, it's a fair assumption, yes. That's correct.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Kelly Motta of KBW. Please go ahead.

[Kelly Motta, analyst]

I might circle back to the loan growth side of things. I appreciate the color that you are budgeting or looking for mid-single-digit growth. But it sounded like you were optimistic that perhaps could do more. Can you -- one, is that -- was that the right interpretation? And to what -- where do you see could you see opportunities to do better or conversely, where might there be more pressure? .

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Yes. Obviously, the mix, if you look at the 3 prior years, we have achieved double-digit growth in the consumer. We expect that demand to reduce a little bit. Obviously, the larger the portfolios, the repayments are larger, too. So when you combine demand and repayments, so we don't see double-digit growth in the consumer world this year. On the other hand, we do have the construction portfolio. So we see -- we experienced mid-single digit in the commercial overall when we add the disbursement that we expect next year in the construction, so that should actually be larger than that.

And then mortgage, we see basically almost flat year we have achieved in the most recent quarter. So definitely, there are -- we look for opportunities to do better than that. But obviously, when we look at all the noise around the world and rates, I think rates will -- could improve that. So we'll see how markets move and how the rate cuts motivate that incremental investments for us to continue to participate. So that -- but obviously, we're sticking with our guidance on mid-single. Obviously, we'd like to do better.

[Kelly Motta, analyst]

Got it. That's helpful. And clearly, this quarter, growth was impacted by [indiscernible] pieces. Just wondering -- appreciate the color overall about where new commercial production yields are coming on. Just wondering if that kind of larger loan was noticeably different than where commercial loans are being typically priced right now just to be mindful of modeling it as we head into 1Q?

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

No. It was on the same. It was -- in fact, I think that's probably going to -- you can get the [indiscernible].

[Aurelio Alemán-Bermúdez, executive]

On the high side of the range that Orlando mentioned.

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Yes. .

[Aurelio Alemán-Bermúdez, executive]

And then the [indiscernible] mix, I have to tell you, the commercial [indiscernible] is very healthy. Definitely, the -- some projects on the reconstruction side, for housing, supported by [indiscernible] some acquisition of businesses, expansion of businesses. So we -- today, we see the pipeline as a healthy one. if we compare to what we saw in the last quarter or so. So obviously, the -- as we said always, the $150 million loan was a one-off loan the usual loan that we do every quarter. But we see enough volume additionally to continue sustaining the level of commercials that we did last year, yes.

[Kelly Motta, analyst]

Got it. Maybe a last housekeeping question for me. It seems like the repricing of the securities is to be a big part of the story as we head through this year. Can you remind us what the -- about where those securities are rolling off at? Is it just similar to where average security yields are now?

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Well, the average yield on those securities not only on a nontaxable equivalent basis, it's about 1.5%, so that's basically the average of what's rolling off should be close to that.

[Operator]

As there are no additional questions, [indiscernible] time, I'd like to hand the conference call back over to Ramon Rodriguez for closing remarks.

[Ramon Rodriguez, executive]

Thanks to everyone for participating in today's call. We will be attending KBW's Financial Services Conference in Boca on February 15, Panto Americas Conference in Miami on February 21, Raymond James Institutional Investor Conference in Orlando on March 5. We look forward to seeing a number of you at these events as we greatly appreciate your continued support. Have a great day. Thank you. .

[Aurelio Alemán-Bermúdez, executive]

Thank you.

[Orlando Berges-González, executive]

Thank you all.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us on today's call. Have a great rest of your day. You may now disconnect your lines.