Ford Motor Co
NYSE:F
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Ford Motor Co
Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one
F
stock under the Base Case scenario is
22.5
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 11.1 USD,
Ford Motor Co
is
Undervalued by 51%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Ford Motor Co
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Fundamental Analysis
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Ford Motor Company, an iconic American automaker founded in 1903 by Henry Ford, has been a pioneer in the automotive industry, revolutionizing mass production with its introduction of assembly line manufacturing. Today, Ford stands at a critical juncture as it navigates the rapidly changing landscape of mobility and environmental sustainability. The company is shifting toward electric vehicles (EVs) and smart technologies to meet the demands of an increasingly eco-conscious consumer base. With a strong legacy of innovation and a commitment to modernizing its operations, Ford’s strategic initiatives include substantial investments in EV development, expansion of its portfolio to include high-...
Ford Motor Company, an iconic American automaker founded in 1903 by Henry Ford, has been a pioneer in the automotive industry, revolutionizing mass production with its introduction of assembly line manufacturing. Today, Ford stands at a critical juncture as it navigates the rapidly changing landscape of mobility and environmental sustainability. The company is shifting toward electric vehicles (EVs) and smart technologies to meet the demands of an increasingly eco-conscious consumer base. With a strong legacy of innovation and a commitment to modernizing its operations, Ford’s strategic initiatives include substantial investments in EV development, expansion of its portfolio to include high-demand electric models like the Ford Mustang Mach-E and the all-electric F-150 Lightning, and a focus on enhancing autonomous driving capabilities.
Investors looking at Ford should consider its robust market presence and brand loyalty, alongside its ongoing transformation to stay competitive in an industry facing significant disruption. The company has leveraged strategic partnerships and technology advancements to position itself for long-term growth, all while maintaining a focus on financial stability and returning value to shareholders. As global demand for electrification surges, Ford is not just aiming to adapt but to lead the charge in the automotive industry's future. The blend of traditional strength and forward-thinking strategy makes Ford a compelling company for investors seeking a stake in the future of transportation.
Ford Motor Company operates in several core business segments, which can be broadly categorized as follows:
-
Automotive Operations:
- Ford Blue: This segment focuses on the design, manufacturing, and marketing of Ford's traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. It includes popular models such as the Ford F-Series trucks, SUVs, and performance vehicles.
- Ford Model E: This segment is dedicated to electric vehicles (EVs) and the development of advanced technologies. It includes the production of electric models like the Ford Mustang Mach-E and the upcoming F-150 Lightning.
- Commercial Vehicles: Ford has a robust lineup of commercial vehicles, including vans and trucks tailored for businesses. The Ford Transit and F-Series Super Duty trucks are key offerings in this segment.
-
Mobility Segment:
- This segment encompasses Ford’s initiatives in mobility services, including Ford Smart Mobility, which focuses on developing autonomous vehicle technology, transportation services, and connected vehicle technology.
-
Ford Credit:
- Ford Credit provides financing solutions to customers and dealers to facilitate vehicle purchases. This segment plays a crucial role in enhancing vehicle sales by providing attractive financing options.
-
Aftermarket Services:
- This includes parts and service operations that support customers and dealers post-purchase, ensuring ongoing revenue streams through maintenance and repairs.
-
Sustainability and Innovation Initiatives:
- Ford is increasingly focusing on sustainability and innovation, which informs various segments of its operations, including investments in renewable energy, sustainable materials, and the development of future transportation solutions.
In recent years, Ford has placed a significant emphasis on electric vehicle development and sustainability as part of its long-term strategy, aiming to position itself as a leader in the rapidly evolving automotive landscape.
Ford Motor Co. has several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the automotive industry. Here are some key factors:
-
Strong Brand Heritage: Ford has a rich history and a well-established brand, symbolized by its iconic models like the Mustang and the F-150. This strong heritage fosters customer loyalty and trust.
-
Diverse Product Portfolio: Ford offers a wide range of vehicles, including trucks, SUVs, and electric models, allowing it to cater to various customer segments. The F-Series, particularly the F-150, is one of the best-selling vehicles in the U.S., giving Ford significant market strength in the truck segment.
-
Investment in Electric Vehicle (EV) Technology: Ford is heavily investing in electric vehicles, with plans to expand its EV lineup significantly. Initiatives like the Ford Lightning (an electric version of the F-150) and partnerships with companies like Rivian emphasize its commitment to electrification.
-
Advanced Manufacturing Capabilities: Ford has robust manufacturing processes and innovative technologies such as automation and robotics. Its production facilities, including the use of smart manufacturing technologies, can enhance efficiency and reduce costs.
-
Global Presence and Scale: Ford operates in many markets worldwide, allowing for economies of scale in production and marketing. Its established supply chain and dealer networks provide a competitive edge in global markets.
-
Research and Development: Ford is committed to R&D, especially in autonomous driving and connectivity technologies. Investments in these areas position Ford to innovate and stay ahead of trends in the automotive market.
-
Strong Financial Position: Historically, Ford has maintained a solid balance sheet, which provides it with the capacity to invest in new technologies and withstand economic downturns better than some competitors.
-
Customer Experience and Support: Ford has invested in enhancing the customer experience, including services like FordPass, which connects customers with their vehicles via a mobile app and offers various services and support.
-
Sustainability Initiatives: Ford is focusing on sustainability, including reducing its carbon footprint and implementing more environmentally friendly manufacturing practices, appealing to increasingly eco-conscious consumers.
-
Legacy and Innovations: Ford has maintained its legacy of innovation, from the assembly line to today’s smart vehicle technologies. This culture fosters a continuous improvement mindset, enhancing its competitiveness.
These advantages, combined with a strategic focus on adapting to industry changes and consumer preferences, position Ford well against its rivals in the automotive market. However, it remains essential for Ford to navigate challenges, such as competition from EV startups and established automakers transitioning to electric vehicles.
Ford Motor Company faces several risks and challenges in the near future, influenced by various economic, technological, and competitive factors. Here are some key areas of concern:
-
Supply Chain Disruptions: Ongoing issues related to global supply chains—exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic—continue to affect the automotive industry. Shortages of semiconductor chips and raw materials can delay production and hurt sales.
-
Transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs): The shift to electric vehicles poses both an opportunity and a challenge. Ford is investing heavily in EV technology, but it faces competition from established automakers and new entrants like Tesla. Additionally, the infrastructure for EVs, such as charging stations, is still developing, which could limit market growth.
-
Regulatory Challenges: Increasingly stringent environmental regulations require automakers to produce more fuel-efficient and cleaner vehicles. Compliance may require significant investment in R&D and manufacturing processes, which could affect profitability.
-
Interest Rate Fluctuations: Rising interest rates can impact consumer financing for vehicle purchases. Higher borrowing costs may deter potential buyers, leading to reduced sales.
-
Market Competition: Competition in the automotive industry is intensifying, particularly in the EV sector. Traditional competitors and new market players are vying for market share, which could affect Ford's pricing strategies and profit margins.
-
Labor Relations: Labor negotiations and potential strikes can disrupt production and increase operating costs. Ensuring good labor relations is crucial for maintaining productivity and cost control.
-
Economic Conditions: General economic conditions, such as inflation and consumer spending trends, can impact vehicle demand. Economic downturns could lead to reduced sales and profitability.
-
Technology Integration: The rapid pace of technological change requires Ford to continually innovate and integrate new technologies into its vehicles. Failure to keep pace with advancements in autonomous driving, connectivity, and safety features could hinder competitive positioning.
-
Brand Perception and Customer Loyalty: Maintaining brand image and consumer loyalty is crucial. Any missteps, such as safety recalls or quality issues, could damage the brand and impact sales.
-
Global Market Volatility: As a global automaker, Ford is exposed to geopolitical risks, trade policies, and currency fluctuations that can affect operations and profitability in international markets.
Addressing these risks effectively will be critical for Ford's success in the evolving automotive landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Ford Motor Co
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Ford Motor Co
| Current Assets | 125.1B |
| Cash & Short-Term Investments | 36.9B |
| Receivables | 66.1B |
| Other Current Assets | 22.1B |
| Non-Current Assets | 161.9B |
| Long-Term Investments | 8B |
| PP&E | 63.6B |
| Other Non-Current Assets | 90.4B |
| Current Liabilities | 109B |
| Accounts Payable | 27.4B |
| Accrued Liabilities | 4.8B |
| Short-Term Debt | 17.9B |
| Other Current Liabilities | 59B |
| Non-Current Liabilities | 133.7B |
| Long-Term Debt | 103.7B |
| Other Non-Current Liabilities | 30B |
Earnings Waterfall
Ford Motor Co
|
Revenue
|
182.7B
USD
|
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-168.7B
USD
|
|
Gross Profit
|
14B
USD
|
|
Operating Expenses
|
-10.3B
USD
|
|
Operating Income
|
3.7B
USD
|
|
Other Expenses
|
-214m
USD
|
|
Net Income
|
3.5B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Ford Motor Co
| USD | |
| Free Cash Flow | USD |
In the third quarter of 2024, Ford reported $46 billion in revenue, marking a 5% increase and the tenth consecutive quarter of growth. Adjusted EBIT reached $2.6 billion with a margin of 5.5%. Key drivers included a 13% revenue uptick in Ford Pro, representing close to $16 billion, and a robust performance in key models like the F-150 and Transit. However, rising warranty costs and inflationary pressures in Turkey constrained margins. Ford now anticipates adjusted EBIT of $10 billion to $12 billion for the year, while targeting adjusted free cash flow between $7.5 billion and $8.5 billion. The company aims to return 40%-50% of free cash flow to shareholders, amidst an ongoing focus on cost efficiency and product launches.
What is Earnings Call?
F Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Ford Motor Co's profitability score is 48/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Ford Motor Co's profitability score is 48/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
F Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Ford Motor Co's solvency score is 38/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Ford Motor Co's solvency score is 38/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
F Price Targets Summary
Ford Motor Co
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for
F
is 12.52 USD
with a low forecast of 9.09 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD.
Click here to dive deeper.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for F is
.
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Ford Motor Co
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Ford Motor Co. engages in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of automobiles. The company is headquartered in Dearborn, Michigan and currently employs 183,000 full-time employees. The firm designs, manufactures, markets, and services a full line of electrified passenger and commercial vehicles, such as Ford trucks, utility vehicles, vans, and cars, and Lincoln luxury vehicles. The firm's segments include Automotive, Mobility and Ford Credit. The Automotive segment is engaged in developing, manufacturing, distributing, and servicing the vehicles, parts and accessories of Ford and Lincoln vehicles. The Mobility segment primarily includes the development of Ford's autonomous vehicles and related businesses, Ford's equity ownership in Argo AI (a developer of autonomous driving systems), and other mobility businesses and investments. The Ford Credit segment is comprised of the Ford Credit business on a consolidated basis, which is primarily vehicle-related financing and leasing activities. Ford Credit offers a range of automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers throughout the world.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one
F
stock under the Base Case scenario is
22.5
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 11.1 USD,
Ford Motor Co
is
Undervalued by 51%.
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