CoreCivic Inc

NYSE:CXW

Earnings Call Analysis

Company Sees Growth Amidst Contract Renewals

The company reported a revenue of $483.7 million in the third quarter, a 4% increase year-over-year. Excluding expired contracts, revenue rose by 7%, with normalized funds from operations (FFO) per share up by 21% due to higher populations and reduced interest expenses from debt reduction. Capacity utilization in Safety and Community segments improved, driving a 50% increase in net operating income in the Safety segment. Key contract renewals were achieved, and new leasing agreements are aligning with strategic priorities. Full year FFO per share guidance is updated to $1.40-$1.46, with adjusted FFO per share forecast at $1.34-$1.40. The company's leverage remains slightly above the target, at 2.8x net debt to EBITDA.

Revenue Growth Amid Contract Expirations

The company generated $483.7 million in revenue during the third quarter, marking a 4% increase over the same period the previous year. This gain is notable, especially considering it occurred despite the end of significant contracts including the McRae Correctional Facility and the North Fork Correctional Facility agreements. If these expirations are excluded, the company's revenue actually rose by 7%, fueled by solid occupancy and revenue growth in the Core Safety and Community segments.

Rise in Funds from Operations and Earnings Per Share

Normalized funds from operations (FFO) rose 21% per share, reaching $40.5 million or $0.35 per share, outpacing the prior year's quarter significantly due to a combination of increased federal and state populations and a strategic reduction in interest expenses. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) showed a robust 75% improvement to $0.14, aside from special items, including real estate sales in the previous year.

Addressing Labor Market Challenges and Increasing Occupancies

Despite ongoing labor pressures and additional operating expenses due to incentives in many markets, the company saw improved staff attraction and retention, leading to a decrease in temporary incentives. Occupancy rates in both the Safety and Community segments have seen increases, with the Safety segment's rise primarily attributed to heightened detention populations from ICE following the end of Title 42. This situation has resulted in an 18% nationwide uptick in ICE detention during the third quarter, contributing to the company’s capacity growth.

Extension of Key Management Contracts and Positive Outlook

The company boasts a high contract retention rate, with several extensions secured, including a notable 5-year extension with the U.S. Marshals Service. Looking forward, there's optimism regarding macro environmental factors with potential increased opportunities to serve the government's needs, particularly as the appropriations process continues to evolve, which may impact the overall population levels in ICE facilities moving forward.

Improving Financial Metrics and Capital Allocation Progress

Net operating income in both the Safety and Community segments showed significant increases, contributing to margins growing from 19.2% to 21.3%. The balance sheet reflects a rigorous debt reduction strategy with decreased interest expenses. Share repurchases have also been a focus, with no maturities on debt until April 2026, providing capital allocation flexibility between debt repayment and further share repurchases.

Updated 2023 Financial Guidance

The company has updated its full-year financial guidance, forecasting an adjusted EPS of $0.54 to $0.60 and normalized FFO per share of $1.40 to $1.46, reflecting ongoing growth and operational efficiency improvements. Additionally, the company emphasized its commitment to maintaining target leverage and being opportunistic in share repurchases where advantageous.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q3 2023 CoreCivic, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, David Gutierrez of Dresner Corporate Services. Please go ahead.

[David Gutierrez]

Thanks, operator. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us. Participating on today's call are Damon Hininger, President and Chief Executive Officer; and David Garfinkle, Chief Financial Officer. We are also joined here in the room by our Vice President of Finance, Brian Hammonds.On today's call, we will discuss our financial results for the third quarter of 2023, developments with our government partners and provide you with other general business updates.During today's call, our remarks, including our answers to your questions, will include forward-looking statements pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities and Litigation Reform Act. Our actual results or trends may differ materially as a result of a variety of factors, including those identified in our third quarter 2023 earnings release issued after market yesterday and in our Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports. You are also cautioned that any forward-looking statements reflect management's current views only and that the company undertakes no obligation to revise or update such statements in the future.On this call, management will also discuss certain non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of the most comparable GAAP measurement is provided in the corresponding earnings release and included in the company's quarterly supplemental financial data report posted on the Investors page of the company's website at corecivic.com.With that, it is my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Damon Hininger.

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Thank you, David. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for our third quarter 2023 earnings call.On today's call, I will provide you with details of our third quarter financial performance and our updated 2023 full year financial guidance, which reflects another increase in our core earnings metrics from last year's quarter's guidance. I will also discuss with you our latest operational developments, update you on our capital allocation strategy and discuss the latest developments with our government partners. Following my remarks, I will turn the call over to our CFO, Dave Garfinkle, who will review our financial results and our updated financial guidance in greater detail. He will also provide a more detailed update on our ongoing capital structure initiatives, including details of our new bank credit facility obtained just after quarter end.I'll now provide a brief overview of our third quarter financial results and our updated 2023 financial guidance. In the third quarter, we generated revenue of $483.7 million, which was a 4% increase compared with the prior year quarter. This increase is in spite of the expiration of our final prison contract with the Federal Bureau of Prisons at our previously owned McRae Correctional Facility in November of 2022, and the expiration of our lease agreement with the Oklahoma Department of Corrections at our North Fork Correctional facility on June 30, 2023. Excluding these 2 expirations, our total revenue increased 7%, demonstrating strong occupancy and revenue growth from our Core Safety and Community portfolios.We generated normalized funds from operations, or FFO, of $40.5 million or $0.35 per share compared with $33.9 million or $0.29 per share in the third quarter of 2022, representing a per share increase of 21%. The increase in FFO was driven by the higher federal and state populations combined with lower interest expense resulting from our debt reduction strategy. The increase in FFO occurred despite the sale of our McRae facility and the expiration of the lease with Oklahoma, which resulted in combined reductions to EBITDA of $4.8 million from the prior year quarter.While we continue to experience ongoing labor market pressures and continue to incur temporary incentives and related incremental operating expenses in many markets, we have achieved notable improvements in our attraction and retention rates as a result of our staffing strategies and due to an overall improvement in the hiring environment. We believe the favorable operating expense trends will continue as the tight labor market continues to loosen. As we have mentioned on past several conference calls, we have made significant investments in our existing staff and have successfully increased our staffing levels through improved recruiting and retention. These investments have enabled us to reduce the amount of temporary incentives from the prior year quarter and have positioned us to accept the additional populations we have begun to experience.From the third quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of this year, occupancy in our Safety segment increased from 70% to 72.6% and occupancy in our Community segment increased from 57.5% to 62.8%. The increase in occupancy in our Safety segment primarily resulted from higher detention populations from our largest government partner, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE.On May 11, Title 42, a temporary public health order issued by the CDC that had essentially closed our nation's border to asylum seeking individual since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic came to an end. At the same time, occupancy restrictions implemented during the pandemic at our ICE facilities also came to an end. Without the ability to deny entry to the United States and quickly remove individuals using the authority granted under Title 42, there has been an increase in the number of people in the custody of the Department of Homeland Security or DHS.ICE is one of the agencies within the DHS that is responsible for enforcing immigration laws, arresting and detaining individuals who have entered the country illegally. These activities have increased since the end of Title 42 and the country continues to report record numbers of people encountered at the southern border.Last quarter, we reported on the increase in demand for detention capacity since Title 42 was lifted. That trend has continued as the number of people in ICE detention increased 18% nationwide during the third quarter alone, resulting in a cumulative increase of approximately 66% nationwide since the end of Title 42. Since May 11, through September 30, ICE detention populations within our facilities have increased 4,729 or 84%, which we believe was possible at least in part because of the investments in staffing I previously mentioned.Due to fixed payments under many of our federal contracts, the increase in residential populations did not result in a proportionate increase in our financial results at such facilities until populations clear the minimum compensated bed total associated with fixed payment levels, which largely occurred during the third quarter.The increase in occupancy in our Safety segment also resulted from higher occupancy levels from several state government partners, including most significantly the State of Arizona at our La Palma Correctional Center in Eloy, Arizona. La Palma is the second largest facility in our portfolio. Recall that we were awarded a new management contract from the State of Arizona and began receiving populations from the state in April of last year. The ramp of this facility was substantially complete by the end of 2022. We continue to incur elevated operating expenses at the facility associated with temporary staffing and believe expenses will continue to normalize as we continue to hire and train permanent staff.During the third quarter of 2023, we also experienced increases in populations from the states of Oklahoma, Colorado and Idaho and more recently in the fourth quarter from Georgia. Further, we remain in discussions with several additional states to help address their challenges in the near to long term.As an example, last quarter, we mentioned that the State of Montana, a current government partner of ours, was expected to issue a request for proposal for the placement for up to 120 out-of-state inmates. The RFP was issued, and we were recently notified by the state of their intent to award the contract to CoreCivic. As a reminder, this would be utilizing existing capacity at our Saguaro Correctional Facility in Arizona.Although not typically an avenue of growth in the past, we have had an increase in the number of discussions with county governments for bed capacity needs in our Safety segment as well. At the end of September, we announced that we had signed a new management contract with Hinds County, Mississippi, for up to 250 adult male pre-trial detainees at our Tallahatchie County Correctional Facility in Mississippi. In October, we completed the intake process for approximately 200 residents from Hinds County at the Tallahatchie facility. The Tallahatchie facility is a good example of the flexible capacity we can provide to our government customers as we also care for over 400 residents from the United States Marshals Service, Vermont, South Carolina, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the local county in Tallahatchie County. I couldn't be more proud of the leadership and staff at our Tallahatchie County facility.As mentioned, occupancy in our Community segment, which comprises of 23 residential reentry facilities increased from 57.5% to 62.8% in the third quarter of 2023 over the prior year period. We also provide electronic monitoring and case management services in our Community segment. Our Community segment represents a vital part of our mission and is often critical to the successful reentry of residents in our care.Net operating income in this segment increased 50% in the third quarter of 2023 from the prior year quarter due to the increase in occupancy as well as per diem increases we have been able to obtain. We were also able to reduce temporary staffing incentives like we did in our Community segment. We expect the occupancy trend to continue in the Community segment now that all pandemic-related public health policies have come to an end as more of our government partners are returning to residential reentry programs to help individuals be better prepared for successfully transitioning into our communities.Finally, we never take for granted renewals of existing management contracts and continue to enjoy a contract retention rate of 95% over the previous 5 years. During the third quarter, we executed a 5-year extension of the contract with the United States Marshals Service at our 4,128-bed Central Arizona Florence Correctional Complex, the largest facility in our portfolio where we provide significant capacity to this government agency as well as ICE. We also executed notable contract extensions with Vermont at our Tallahatchie Facility, Mississippi; ICE at our Elizabeth Detention Center in New Jersey; Montana at our Crossroads Correctional Center in Montana; Tennessee at our managed only South Central Correctional Center; and the Texas Department of Criminal Justice for 5 residential reentry centers we own in Texas.As mentioned last quarter, we entered into an agreement with the state of Oklahoma to lease our 1,670-bed Davis Correctional Facility effective October 1, 2023. We successfully transitioned operations to the state, which is now operating facility with government employees, effectively converting the facility from one in which we own and operated in our Safety segment to one that we simply lease to the state and we'll now report in our Properties segment. We were pleased to reach a positive conclusion to this facility contract renegotiation, and we believe that a lease agreement is best for the long-term outlook for the facility that also meet the long-term needs of the state.As we look forward, we remain optimistic in the macro environment for our federal, state and local business. Our governments are facing complex challenges, and we see increased opportunities to serve their growing needs. At the federal level, although we continue to see a steady increase in detention bed utilization, the long-term impact of the end of Title 42 is still unclear as there are other factors that impact detention utilization levels by ICE. The most significant factor historically has been funding levels approved by Congress. However, the country is still facing significant challenges at the southern border and geopolitical events only enhance the need for border security.Although the appropriations process for funding in the near term as well as the remainder of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024, is still in flux, there appears to be bipartisan support for additional border funding for the Department of Homeland Security and ICE to help address the challenges at our southern border. The outcome of the appropriations process is expected to have significant impact on the overall population levels in our ICE facilities moving forward. And even though detention funding and related services are just part of the overall solution, we are positioned well to serve their needs.Another part of the overall management of the border that could potentially expand the scope of services includes alternative detention. Earlier this year, ICE issued a request for information, or RFI, for release and reporting management services. This RFI is seeking information about monitoring technology, participant coordination services, including physical space, participant engagement and interactions and program management and community services to help people comply with their immigration obligations. Though not yet funded by Congress and only in the early stages, the RFI is intended to apply to noncitizens released from DHS custody and, according to the RFI, involves engaging with a large portion of the 5.7 million individuals on the current non-detained docket.At the state level, overall state budgets are in very good shape. Most states are reporting increases in their prison populations and many states are also projecting further increases in their prison populations. Jail backlogs, which are a leading indicator for state prison populations remain significant. Additionally, courts continue to normalize operations and cases are adjudicated, so state correctional agencies will clearly be impacted.So to summarize, the macro environment is improving and is beginning to manifest in our financial results as some of the headwinds we faced during the pandemic are turning into tailwinds. Based on our updated outlook, we are updating our full year normalized FFO per share forecast to a range of $1.40 to $1.46 and adjusted funds from operations or AFFO per share to a range of $1.34 to $1.40. These represent increases of $0.02 at the midpoint of our previously issued guidance.We are currently preparing our 2024 budget and expect to issue financial guidance for the full year 2024 in February when we announce our fourth quarter 2023 results. We are obviously focused on a solution to the pending lease expiration with the State of California at our California City Correctional Center. This facility, which generates approximately $25 million in annual EBITDA is in a great location, but the lease is currently scheduled to expire on March 31, 2024. We are experiencing growth in many parts of our business, which will mitigate the financial impact of the lease expiration if we are unable to identify an alternative solution in the short term.I will close out my comments by discussing our continued progress on our capital allocation strategy and further strengthening our balance sheet. We continue to make progress on our debt reduction strategy. Our debt reduction has contributed to meaningful decreases in our interest expense, particularly noteworthy, considering the significant rise in interest rates. Leverage measured by net debt to EBITDA using the trailing 12 months ended September 30, 2023, was at 2.8x, just marginally higher than our long-term targeted range of 2.25 to 2.75x.We did not repurchase any shares of our common stock under our share repurchase program during the third quarter, prioritizing our cash flows on repaying debt. But with the progress we have made on reducing our leverage, we will be opportunistic in repurchasing shares in future quarters while being mindful of reaching our targeted leverage range. We have approximately $125 million remaining of our share repurchase program after having repurchased 9.2 million shares of our common stock for approximately $100 million since the Board authorized our share repurchase program in May of last year.Subsequent to quarter end, we entered into a new bank credit facility, increasing the size from $350 million to $400 million and extending the maturity to October of 2028. Dave will provide further details of the new facility. We are very grateful for the support of our new and existing bank partners, enabling us to extend our overall debt maturities and providing us with greater financial flexibility in managing the business and how we balance our capital allocation strategy.Following the extension of our bank credit facility, we have no debt maturities until April 2026 when approximately $600 million of our senior notes is scheduled to mature. With the strength of our cash flows, we have extensive flexibility in how we deploy our free cash flow in the future and flexibility about opportunistically accessing the capital markets.I'll now turn the call over to Dave, who will provide a more detailed look at our financial results in the third quarter. He will also discuss in detail the increase in our full year 2023 financial guidance and further details about our new bank credit facility and capital allocation strategy. Dave?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Thank you, Damon, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter of 2023, we reported GAAP net income of $0.12 per share compared with $0.58 per share in the prior year quarter. Among other special items, net income in the prior year quarter included gains on sales of real estate assets of $83.8 million or $0.53 per share, including a $77.5 million gain on the sale of our McRae Correctional Facility. Adjusting for special items, adjusted EPS during the third quarter of 2023 was $0.14 compared with $0.08 per share in the prior year quarter, an increase of $0.06 per share or 75%. Normalized FFO per share was $0.35 during the third quarter of 2023 compared with $0.29 in the prior year quarter, an increase of $0.06 per share or 21%.The increase in adjusted EPS and normalized FFO per share primarily resulted from higher federal and state populations combined with a reduction in interest expense. These increases were partially offset by the expiration of our final prison contract with the Federal Bureau of Prisons in November 2022 and our previously owned and operated McRae Correctional Facility and the expiration of our lease with the Oklahoma Department of Corrections June 30, 2023 at our North Fork Correctional Facility. These 2 expirations accounted for a reduction of $0.03 per share from the prior year quarter.During the second quarter, we began to experience an increase in the number of residents detained by ICE as a result of the expiration of Title 42 on May 11, 2023, a policy that denied entry at the U.S. border to asylum seekers and anyone crossing the border without proper documentation or authority in an effort to contain the spread of COVID-19. This trend continued during the third quarter as ICE detention populations increased nationwide by 18%. From June 30 to September 30, ICE detention populations within our facilities increased by 1,972 residents or 23%.Note that due to fixed payments at certain of our facilities, increases in populations do not always result in incremental revenue and compensated occupancy because increases can occur at facilities where population levels were already included in our compensated population. Compensated occupancy in our Safety and Community facilities was 72% in the third quarter of 2023 compared with 70.1% in the prior year quarter.AFFO, which we consider a proxy for our cash available for capital allocation decisions, increased to $42.3 million or $0.37 per share in the third quarter of 2023 from $29.9 million or $0.25 per share in the prior year quarter, an increase of $0.12 per share or 48%. The larger per share increase in AFFO compared with adjusted EPS and normalized FFO was attributable to higher stock-based compensation and lower maintenance capital expenditures during the current year quarter. Maintenance capital expenditures can fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter depending on the nature of the expenditures required, seasonal factors such as weather and budgetary conditions but tend to level out over annual periods.Facility net operating income in our Safety segment increased $11.4 million or 14% from the prior year quarter, net of a reduction of $1.6 million for the contract expiration with the BOP at the McRae facility. Facility net operating income in our Community segment increased $2.2 million or 50% from the prior year quarter. Facility net operating income in our Properties segment declined $3.3 million from the prior year quarter, primarily due to the lease expiration at our North Fork facility amounting to $3.1 million.The increases in occupancy contributed to an increase in margins in our Safety and Community facilities, which increased from 19.2% in the third quarter of 2022 to 21.3% during the third quarter of 2023. Further, during the third quarter, we were able to reduce certain labor-related expenses, such as registry nursing, temporary wage incentives and travel despite inflation and ongoing labor market pressures that have been steadily easing over the past several quarters.Longer term, we continue to believe operating margins will trend toward those we experienced pre-pandemic of approximately 25% as higher per diem rates, we have been successful in obtaining for many of our government partners, are expected to translate into increasing margins as they are applied to increasing occupancy levels and as labor-related expenses continue to normalize.Turning next to the balance sheet. We continue to make progress on our debt reduction strategy, increasing our total debt repaid year-to-date through September 30 to $137.7 million, net of the change in cash, including $65 million during the third quarter of 2023. Our leverage measured by net debt to EBITDA was 2.8x using the trailing 12 months ended September 30, 2023. As of September 30, we had $103.7 million of cash on hand and an additional $232.6 million of borrowing capacity on our revolving credit facility, providing us with total liquidity of $336.3 million.Subsequent to quarter end, we completed an amendment and extension of our bank credit facility, effectively replacing our previous bank credit facility, increasing the total size from $350 million to $400 million. The new bank credit facility increases available borrowings under the revolving credit facility, which remains undrawn from $250 million to $275 million and increases the size of the term loan from an initial balance under the previous facility of $100 million to $125 million, extends the maturity to October 2028 from May 2026 and relaxes certain covenants while maintaining a similar pricing structure. The larger size provides us with additional flexibility in paying down our unsecured debt while increasing liquidity.Moving next to a discussion of our capital allocation strategy. Our capital strategy has resulted in a reduction to interest expense of $10.1 million during the 9 months ended September 30, 2023, compared with the same period in the prior year, while we have repurchased 9.2 million shares of stock for a total purchase price of $100 million at an average price of $10.86 per share since our Board authorized the repurchase program in May 2022. These repurchases include 2.6 million shares repurchased during 2023 for a total purchase price of $25.6 million at an average price of $9.84 per share. We did not repurchase any shares in the third quarter, but considering the progress we have made on debt reduction, we expect to be opportunistic in repurchasing additional shares in future quarters while further progressing toward our targeted leverage of 2.25x to 2.75x. We have approximately $125 million of share repurchases remaining under the Board authorization.We have no debt maturities until April 2026 when $593.1 million of our 8.25% senior notes mature following the open market purchase of $21 million of these notes in the second quarter. In the future, we could elect to use our free cash flow to purchase additional senior notes in open market transactions, privately negotiated transactions or otherwise. We could also use our effective shelf registration statement to issue additional debt securities when we determine that market conditions and the opportunity to refinance a portion of our debt are favorable, though current market conditions are not sufficiently attractive for such an opportunistic transaction. Given the strength of both our balance sheet and cash flows, we have tremendous flexibility in how we deploy our free cash flow and balance our capital allocation strategy between debt repayments and share repurchases.Moving lastly to a discussion of our 2023 financial guidance. We expect to generate adjusted EPS of $0.54 to $0.60, up from our previous guidance of $0.52 to $0.59 and normalized FFO per share of $1.40 to $1.46, up from our previous guidance of $1.37 to $1.45. We have updated our guidance to reflect the $0.01 beat in Q3 through to the full year, higher federal and state populations expected to be sustained throughout the fourth quarter, partially offset by higher interest expense for new borrowings on the term loan A. Our guidance also contemplates a continued moderation of our operating expense structure. Our guidance does not include any new contract awards because the timing of government actions on new contracts is always difficult to predict. While we could execute on one or more of these opportunities this year, which would be upside to our guidance, they would be more impactful in 2024.We expect AFFO to range from $153 million to $160.8 million or $1.34 to $1.40 per share, up from $149.8 million to $159.3 million or $1.31 to $1.39 per share in our previous guidance. We expect our normalized effective tax rate to be 28% to 29% and the full year EBITDA guidance in our press release provides you with our estimate of total depreciation and interest expense. We expect G&A expenses in 2023 to be about 3% to 4% higher than 2022. We expect to incur $66 million to $69 million in capital expenditures during 2023, including $61 million to $63 million of maintenance capital expenditures, unchanged from our prior guidance and $5 million to $6 million for other capital investments, down slightly from our prior guidance.We remain focused on managing to our leverage target of 2.25 to 2.75x and have not included any additional share repurchases in our forecast. However, as previously mentioned, we will remain flexible, and we'll continue to be opportunistic in repurchasing shares.I will now turn the call back to the operator to open up the lines for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Joe Gomes with NOBLE Capital.

[Joseph Gomes, analyst]

So really nice solid sequential growth in secured services revenues. Some of that's from population increases. I think some of that's from some increases in per diems. Could you kind of parse out relative contribution for that revenue increase between the population increases and per diem increases?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

I don't have that information at my fingertips, Joe. But certainly, populations, particularly on the federal side, were driving the increases if you're comparing to the prior year quarter. But certainly, we did see per diem increases -- some pretty healthy per diem increases from state government partners that became effective July 1 as our state government fiscal years begin July 1, and that's typically when we do receive per diem increases. So it was a good year. We reported on that last quarter when we had mentioned a lot of our state partners recognizing the need to help fund wage increases for our staff. So most of the increases, I'd say, was really attributable to population increases, though.

[Joseph Gomes, analyst]

Okay. And then kind of following along with that, since the end of September, it's been reported that ICE populations have increased another almost 15%. Are you seeing a similar increase since the end of the third quarter in your populations? And given, I think, in your commentary, you said that a fair number of the facilities are now above their minimum guarantees, is it reasonable to assume that we'll start to see maybe a little faster increase in revenue as these populations, if it's sustained, these populations have increased?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Yes, Joe, thank you so much. I'm going to tag team a little bit with this question with Dave primarily on the last piece. But on the first piece, yes, just to give you a little bit of trajectory of our numbers, so at the end of July, our total system ICE population was about 8,200. That went to about 8,900 at the end of August, end of September, it got to 10,300. And then as of yesterday, we were 11,800. So just to give you a sense of kind of the trend in the populations with ICE within our system.And then I think part of your question was kind of on the national numbers. So I think you and the other analysts reported that there really hasn't been a recent report on ICE populations nationwide till I think since late September or early October, but I have seen and I think you saw this too, I have seen it reported in the press here in the last week that 39,000 was the number nationally for ICE detention population. I can't confirm that. That was -- again, that was reported in the press, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's the number.But on the last piece relative to guarantees, I'll let you touch on that, Dave.

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Yes. During the third quarter, there were -- for facilities where we were below the guarantees, there's about 600 residents below the guarantees. So most of our facilities surpassed the guaranteed levels during Q3. If you go back to pre-pandemic, they were almost always above the guarantees. So that's not surprising that they're getting back to those levels. So -- and we reported in the second quarter, that's really when we started to see increases in detention populations because of the termination of May 11. But still during the second quarter, more of our facilities had not reached those guaranteed levels. So as of the end of the third quarter, most of them have. We still have a few that have not, but they do bounce around and some can go above and back below. But I'd say, for the most part, going forward, most of our facilities will be recognizing incremental revenue to the extent we see increases in populations.

[Joseph Gomes, analyst]

Okay. And also, this has been reported and just to kind of get your guys' commentary or thoughts on it. On the alternative detention, one of the proposals from the House, as you mentioned, could be monitoring in some shape or form of everybody that's here that's not a citizen, some 5 million to 6 million people. As we all know, your competitor has ISAP contract today, which is at levels nowhere near that. If the House proposal were to come to fruition, is this something that you guys could handle a significant portion of that? Or is it something that you would have to really ramp up hard on in order to start to help support that type of proposal?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Yes, Joe, thank you for that question. And the short answer is yes. We've been working in preparation for potential needs with this type of solution. And it's -- bottom line, it's been pretty fluid, to be honest with you. So we've obviously seen what the House proposed. We're obviously talking to ICE on a regular basis. I talked about the RFI a little bit in my script. And it's pretty clear to us that ICE and the leadership within the organization and also with the DHS are looking at creating solutions kind of above and beyond what they do today with the ISAP program in its current form that's currently performed by BI. So we're absolutely very capable. We've got a lot of expertise in our Community division and our recovery monitoring solutions that are out of Dallas that we've had for multiple years. And we've been doing a lot of research, a lot of planning for, again, what potentially that would be needed from ICE to serve this population that are currently non-detained.But anything, I guess, you'd want to add to that, Dave?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

No, I just -- I think you're referring to the release and reporting management RFI that was issued earlier this year. We did respond to that. It actually has 3 different parts of monitoring technology, participation coordination services and community services. I think Damon had mentioned in his prepared remarks. And it's the participant coordination services where they mentioned 5.7 million people on the non-detained docket. So it's really early in the process. I think they're gathering information from the marketplace. And I'm sure, based on the feedback that they get from all RFIs, they could move forward with an RFP. As you mentioned, Joe, it still does require funding. So a lot of moving parts still at this point on what the final outcome looks like. But yes, we've been gearing up for several years now to prepare to handle an RFP like what they issued in the RFI.

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Absolutely. Yes. That's the bottom line. We're getting ourselves prepared and definitely got the capabilities.

[Joseph Gomes, analyst]

Okay. And then one last one for me, and I'll get back in queue. It was a nice win with the Hinds County contract. More to come on that and more opportunities in the pipeline?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Yes. Thank you for the question, Joe. I would tell you, probably in the last 90, 120 days, we've been seeing a lot of interest as I noted in my script, not just with the counties, but also with the states. So we've got a lot of kind of lines in the water, talking to different partners, both existing and potentially new partners. So kind of stay tuned on that front. And again, going back to Hinds County, that's a new partner for us, looking forward to working with them. And I guess I'll just remind to all of our investors, especially some of our new investors, I mean, many of our agreements over the last 40 years, start with a pretty small contract where we show our capabilities, we develop a solution for them, they see kind of how the program goes. We want to also be able to demonstrate very positive outcomes. And then it's an opportunity where we could potentially grow the partnership based on that performance. So we're excited about starting this with Hinds County and potentially a couple of other counties that are looking for some solutions.And again, on the state side, seeing a lot of activity. We talked about, I don't know, in last quarter, I said in my script, we've been given the intent to award with Montana for capacity at our Saguaro facility out in Arizona, and we've got active discussions with a couple of other states. So yes, stay tuned. We've seen a lot of interest and activity, both with federal, state and local partners.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Kirk Ludtke with Imperial Capital.

[Kirk Ludtke, analyst]

The RFI that you mentioned, which I guess, could be an RFP at some point, would that be in parallel with ISAP or would that somehow replace ISAP?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

It's hard to say at the moment. Again, I think ICE, as Dave alluded to, with this RFI, I think they're trying to figure out what the mission would be, what the kind of outcomes they're looking for, for a program like this. And so when they put this out to market, they're looking from us and others to see what the capabilities are and not only just our technical expertise in staffing and leadership and locations where we can perform, but also maybe anything innovative that we can bring that helps mostly with the mission of that program. So the short answer is, I think it's too early to tell, but it's -- clearly they're doing a lot of homework on their side. They're getting a lot of feedback and information from the market on capabilities and innovative solutions. And again, we've -- we think we brought a lot to the table that gives them some things to kind of consider and ponder as they think about what the program looks like going forward.I guess anything you want to add to that, Dave?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Not really. I mean, timing is not definitive either. I think they'll take the RFI information back. If it turns into an RFP, it's probably middle part of next year to late 2024, so more of a '25 opportunity.

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

I guess I will also say and add to this also, Dave. I guess I will also say, I mean, the size that they're looking potentially for this program, I think, gives us the feeling that they're probably looking at multiple contractors to provide that. I think the need and ability to scale, my guess would be, as I probably look at it, okay, we probably need to look at multiple participants in this program to help support the overall need of the program itself.

[Kirk Ludtke, analyst]

Got it. That's interesting. Yes, there's more than -- I guess monitoring could be defined a lot of different ways, but it requires quite a bit of infrastructure, I would think, to do this. Like, who -- other than you and your primary competitor, who would be qualified to do this?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Well, we're not privy to who submitted on the RFI. So I don't know if I can give you a very good answer on that front. But I'd say it's probably kind of the range of not only organizations like this, publicly traded companies, there may be some out there that are maybe in the defense industry world that maybe have some technology or capabilities that are similar to this requirement or these requirements, I should say. And I'm sure there's probably either some privately held or not profit also that are participating. So probably all of those show some interest.

[David Garfinkle, executive]

There's a lot of different services, too, that could be included. So it certainly makes sense that it could be multiple vendors providing the ultimate services.

[Kirk Ludtke, analyst]

Got it. And then one other topic. You mentioned that you're in discussions with a number of states. Can you share how many beds are in play?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

It'd probably be hard to give a definitive number, but it's meaningful. I mean we've got -- again, we've talked about Montana, we talked about Idaho. Those were a couple of hundred beds each, the Hinds County a couple of hundred beds each. So I'd say that's probably a good estimate. Probably when we start a conversation with a new partner, it's usually in the range of 200 to 400 beds. Again, we feel like that's a good way to kind of get the relationship started, get some time together, show some positive outcomes and then based on kind of their long-term goal, see if we can grow the partnership.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from M. Marin with Zacks.

[Marla Marin, analyst]

So you have really moved along in this debt reduction strategy, capital allocation policies and just generally strengthening the balance sheet. When you first announced this strategy, I think one component was to include asset sales in order to increase the cash you had to repay debt, and you were able to sell a good number of assets. So now when you look through your real estate portfolio and you see some of the perhaps older facilities or those that are underutilized, are there any specific assets that you look at now that you think might be right for divestiture at this point?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Yes. Great question. And the short answer is that maybe 5, 10 years ago, that wouldn't necessarily [ be ] a thought for each individual assets, especially ones that are underutilized, but we really think about that for every asset that we've got in the portfolio that are partially or underutilized or currently vacant. So -- and then with that, we do a market assessment of potentially what would the market bear relative to a transaction. So nothing near term to really kind of point to or indicate that we're close on a transaction. But I guess the short answer is any facility that we've got kind of underutilized, especially if it's been long term, we're considering that.But I guess, anything you'd add to that, Dave?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Yes. In the short term, I guess there are some residential reentry centers, both in our Properties segment as well as in our Community segment. They're not large assets. They're several million dollars per asset. The larger prison facilities, those are longer conversations, obviously more complex with larger dollars associated with the government coming up with the dollars to purchase those facilities. So those are much longer conversations. I wouldn't say -- I'd never say never, but those are lower likelihood. But I'd say, certainly, in the Community and Properties portfolio where we've got residential reentry centers, we could sell one or more of those assets. But again, those would not be significant proceeds.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Violino with Wedbush Securities.

[Brian Violino, analyst]

Just wanted to clarify, in the guidance, you mentioned sustained higher federal and state populations being an underlying assumption. Does that -- for ICE -- I guess ICE specifically, does that assume that they're sustained at the higher levels like the average level seen in 3Q? Or are you assuming an incremental increase in the average ICE occupancy in the fourth quarter?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

I would say a modest -- I mean the average population during Q3, we would say the guidance would be slightly higher than the average in Q3. So higher toward the end of the Q3. As you looked at sequential months throughout Q3, they continued to increase. And as Damon mentioned, they continued to increase post September 30 as well into the fourth quarter. So our guidance reflects -- it's a range, but it does reflect an increase in the average daily population from Q3.

[Brian Violino, analyst]

Got it. And then in the past, you talked about the NOI margin in the Safety and Community segment turning back towards pre-pandemic levels of around 25% over time. And I think it was around 21% this quarter. I guess, could you just walk through sort of the time line trending back towards that level? What kind of occupancy and expense trends would need to happen to get there?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Yes. I'd say pre-pandemic occupancy was around 80%, so to get back to 25% pre-pandemic margins, we'd have to get towards that occupancy level. We're not projecting that. I mean we haven't -- obviously don't have 2024 guidance out yet, we'll issue that in February when we release our fourth quarter results. But I wouldn't expect us to be getting to 80% occupancy throughout 2024 either. But certainly, incremental steps -- as sequential -- if we see sequential growth, we could see an increase in that margin percentage, perhaps not as high as the 25% by the end of '24. I wouldn't rule it out, but probably not likely we'll get to 25% margins by the end of '24. But again, we can speak more to that when we release our 2024 guidance in February.So in the short term, I'd say modest increases perhaps in that margin, assuming we continue to see increases in occupancy like I just mentioned. And we do continue to see, again, sequential quarters beginning probably with the second quarter of 2022, an improvement in the hiring market. And then a last point I'd probably say is, our La Palma facility, we continue to have a lot of temporary staff there every day to get by. We're hiring more and more permanent staff, but we are experiencing elevated operating expense levels at the La Palma facility while we have the temporary staff there. So that will continue to normalize over time and also contribute to an increase in our margins.

[Brian Violino, analyst]

Great. And one more quick one, if I could. When Title 42 was first talked about going away back in May, there was some talk about Title 8 coming back into play and that repeat offenders could be referred to the DOJ and be detained under the U.S. Marshals. It sounds like Marshals populations have been pretty stable, but have you seen any sort of uptick in these cases now that Title 42 has been gone for a few months?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

We have not. We have not yet. I know that was discussed and reported quite a bit during the summer. But at the moment, to your point, yes, Marshal populations, both in our system and kind of the national numbers, have been pretty stable.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Jordan Hymowitz with Philadelphia Financial Management of San Francisco.

[Jordon Hymowitz, analyst]

My first question is, what was your occupancy in the month of October?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

I don't have that at my fingertips. I would guess it was slightly higher than the 72% we reported for the third quarter.

[Jordon Hymowitz, analyst]

Okay. Second question is, is it fair to assume that since there's been no proposal, there's nothing in your numbers or in any way going forward that you're projecting for the potential large expansion of the electronic monitoring business, which you're really not in now?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Yes. So essentially that, yes exactly right. So it hasn't been finalized from a funding perspective. And obviously, I think that will all be tied into potentially the supplemental or the larger funding bill for the rest of the fiscal year. So my guess is that probably ICE is doing 2 things. One, again, they're probably surveying the market on our capabilities based on what their needs were -- would be with the mission. But second, what kind of direction they get from a funding from Congress. So I think at the moment, it's probably a little bit of wait and see on our side while they get -- they're getting their plan together and also see what funding they get, support-wise, from Congress.

[Jordon Hymowitz, analyst]

Okay. And my last question is, you've expanded your debt facilities quite a bit. And if you don't want to give names, that's fine, but not that many years ago, like you couldn't find anybody at any rate to lend you money. Can you talk about the number of banks or facilities without mentioning that are now interested in your debt facility or interested in doing business with you?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Yes. Great question. This is Dave. I'll take that one. Yes, that was one of the reasons we actually expanded the size of the credit facility, which we just obtained last year before expanding it in October. We have 11 banks in our bank credit facility, and we did have some additional banks come to us between the last time we did the facility, which was April or May of last year through now, that wanted to get into our facility. Again, they're not the big bold bracket banks, but more regional banks. And so it's nice to see banks actually approaching us, interested in getting into our bank syndicate. They look at the credit, the credit's rock solid and we can provide a certain element of businesses and deposits for them. So it's good business for them as well.So we just felt like it was -- we reached out to the banks, asked them if they'd be interested in amending and extending the facility. So getting a 5-year deal was longer than the 4-year deal we got last year, and they were very receptive. They're very good banking partners. I speak with them pretty regularly. And so when they said, yes, they would be supportive of an extension, we just opened it up and expanded it by $50 million and pushed it out -- push the maturity out 5 years. So yes, a different environment, I'd say, today than it was several years ago.

[Jordon Hymowitz, analyst]

[indiscernible] about increased flexibility, does that -- is there any covenants on that, that, should you want, give you more flexibility on buybacks than before as well?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

There are no restrictions under the credit facility other than our obvious covenants when we're way inside of our total leverage covenants on how much stock we could buy back. The only restrictions we have on buying back shares is under our 8.25% unsecured notes. There's a restricted payment basket, but it is plenty, and it would not be a restriction on the amount we could buy back. Our internal leverage profile of 2.25 to 2.75 will be the governor on share buybacks.

[Operator]

Our final question comes from Greg Gibas with Northland Securities.

[Gregory Gibas, analyst]

On the assumptions related to the ICE population and guidance, I know you said definitely higher than where we were at the end of Q3, but I believe it was like 11,800 of an ICE population as of yesterday that you had. Is that kind of the assumption that holds through year-end? Or would we expect increases? Just curious what you kind of implied in guidance there.

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Well, that's -- you're getting at a level of precision that's probably not -- our guidance is a range. So I would say it's approximately that level. But if they're up slightly, they'll be toward the high end of that range. And if they're down slightly, they'll be toward the low end of that range. But I think, given the range that we have out there, we're pretty comfortable here we are beginning of November, have somewhat decent visibility on the rest of November and December and certainly know what October was. So I feel that it's approximately equal to, I'd say, that number that you just mentioned.

[Gregory Gibas, analyst]

Okay. Fair enough. And then regarding the California facility, I think it was, at March 31, [ 2024 ], about $25 million of the contributor. Any visibility on what will happen with that contract or that facility and when we might get a better picture?

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

Yes. It's a great question. This is Damon again. And our team is actively working on it, and I have nothing to announce today, but I will tell you that we've had good discussions with multiple jurisdictions on the path going forward. So hopefully, as we get to February, we can give you another update on that front, but there definitely is an interest by a couple of different jurisdictions.

[Gregory Gibas, analyst]

Okay. Great. And I guess just last one for me, more broad kind of question. But really great to see that leverage reduction continue into the quarter. And as we get close to that targeted range, how are you thinking about maybe capital allocation once you hit that range, once you're at like 2.5 or something like that? How would it change?

[David Garfinkle, executive]

Yes. Good question, it's Dave. So we expect to continue to both buy back stock and pay down debt at the same time. It's -- we're not applying a formula to that allocation. We'll obviously react to prospects in the business, share price, things like that. As we just mentioned, there's really no limitations under our debt agreements. We are obviously a conservative management team and prudent with our leverage ratio, and it is a target, 2.25 to 2.75. We're not there yet. Now we've made significant progress and are just a hair above it. So we'd expect to get there in the short term. But we'll allocate our free cash flow both toward debt reduction and stock buybacks.

[Operator]

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Damon Hininger for closing remarks.

[Damon T. Hininger, executive]

All right. Thank you so very much, and thank you all for joining our call today. We appreciate giving you an opportunity to ask questions and give you all an update and look forward to our call coming up in February of next year. Have a good day.

[Operator]

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.