Carvana Co
NYSE:CVNA
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one CVNA stock under the Base Case scenario is 50.29 USD. Compared to the current market price of 259.36 USD, Carvana Co is Overvalued by 81%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Carvana Co
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Fundamental Analysis
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Carvana Co., founded in 2012, has emerged as a disruptive force in the used car market, transforming the traditional automotive retail experience into a seamless digital transaction. The company operates an innovative online platform that allows customers to browse, finance, and purchase vehicles entirely over the internet. With its signature car vending machines and a robust delivery service, Carvana caters to the modern consumer's desire for convenience and transparency. This approach not only eliminates the traditional dealership hassle but also enhances customer satisfaction by providing a wide selection of quality used cars, often with competitive pricing and a seven-day return policy....
Carvana Co., founded in 2012, has emerged as a disruptive force in the used car market, transforming the traditional automotive retail experience into a seamless digital transaction. The company operates an innovative online platform that allows customers to browse, finance, and purchase vehicles entirely over the internet. With its signature car vending machines and a robust delivery service, Carvana caters to the modern consumer's desire for convenience and transparency. This approach not only eliminates the traditional dealership hassle but also enhances customer satisfaction by providing a wide selection of quality used cars, often with competitive pricing and a seven-day return policy.
As Carvana continues to grow, investors should note its ambitious expansion strategy and focus on technological advancements to streamline operations. The company has invested heavily in data analytics and artificial intelligence to optimize inventory management and enhance the customer experience. However, Carvana has faced challenges, including fluctuating market conditions and rising operating costs. Despite these hurdles, the company's potential for long-term growth is rooted in its unique business model and the increasing acceptance of digital car buying. For investors, Carvana represents an intriguing opportunity in the rapidly evolving automotive industry, where convenience, innovation, and customer-centricity are becoming the key determinants of success.
Carvana Co. primarily operates in the automotive e-commerce space, focusing on the buying and selling of used vehicles through a unique online platform. The core business segments of Carvana can be outlined as follows:
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E-Commerce Vehicle Sales:
- This segment represents the bulk of Carvana's revenue. Customers can browse, purchase, and finance used vehicles entirely online. The company markets its convenience and transparency, allowing users to compare prices, view vehicle histories, and even take virtual tours of the cars.
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Vehicle Acquisition:
- Carvana also focuses on acquiring vehicles from both consumers and dealers. The company has a streamlined process for consumers to sell their cars directly, offering instant quotes and making it easier for individuals to offload vehicles. This acquisition strategy helps maintain an inventory of vehicles to sell.
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Financing Services:
- Carvana provides financing options for customers looking to purchase vehicles. The company partners with various lenders to offer competitive financing rates, which enhances the purchasing experience and helps convert more sales by providing a one-stop shop for car buying.
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Vehicle Delivery and Logistics:
- The logistics segment focuses on the delivery of purchased vehicles to customers. Carvana has developed a robust logistics network, including a fleet of delivery trucks and the famous "car vending machines." The delivery process is designed to be convenient and efficient, which is a key selling point for the service.
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Value-Added Services:
- This includes additional offerings such as vehicle warranties, extended service plans, and other aftermarket products. By providing these services, Carvana increases customer satisfaction and boosts revenue per transaction.
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Online Car Auctions:
- Carvana may also engage in wholesale vehicle transactions through online auctions, where it sells acquired vehicles that are not ideal for retail. This helps in managing inventory effectively and optimizing profit margins.
These segments collectively drive Carvana’s business model, positioning it as a major player in the online used car sales market. The company has leveraged technology and an innovative approach to disrupt traditional car dealership models, focusing on customer experience and operational efficiency.
Carvana Co. benefits from several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the online used car marketplace. Here are some key advantages:
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Innovative Technology Platform: Carvana's user-friendly online platform provides a streamlined purchasing experience, enabling consumers to buy, sell, or trade-in vehicles easily. Its technology allows for detailed vehicle inspections, photogenic displays of automobiles, and smooth transaction processes.
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Vehicle Vending Machines: The company has introduced a distinctive car vending machine concept, where customers can pick up their purchased vehicles in a unique, engaging manner. This not only enhances customer experience but also serves as a marketing tool, attracting attention and promoting brand awareness.
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Strong Brand Recognition and Trust: Carvana has established itself as one of the leading online car retailers. Its brand reputation, supported by effective marketing and customer service, fosters consumer trust, which is crucial in the automotive retail sector.
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Comprehensive Inspection Process: Carvana conducts thorough inspections and reconditioning of vehicles, offering detailed reports and a high degree of transparency which increases customer confidence in the quality of their purchase.
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Home Delivery Service: The option to have vehicles delivered directly to customers’ homes adds convenience and is a significant competitive advantage, particularly in a market where convenience is becoming increasingly important.
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No-Haggle Pricing Model: Carvana’s fixed-price sales model eliminates the stress and uncertainty associated with traditional car buying negotiations, appealing to buyer preferences for straightforward, hassle-free transactions.
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Wide Selection of Inventory: Carvana has a large and diverse inventory that allows customers to choose from many makes and models, making it easier for buyers to find the right vehicle.
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Robust Financing Options: The company provides a variety of financing solutions directly on its platform, making the purchasing process more accessible and integrated for customers.
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Nationwide Reach: Unlike many traditional dealerships, Carvana's online model enables it to serve a nationwide market, giving it a broader customer base and the ability to leverage economies of scale.
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Customer-Centric Policies: Carvana offers a seven-day return policy, allowing customers to test drive their vehicles in real life, which reduces buyer’s remorse and increases overall satisfaction.
These competitive advantages position Carvana favorably against both online and traditional car retailers, enabling it to capture and retain a growing segment of the used car market.
Carvana Co., an online used car retailer, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its business in the near future:
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Economic Uncertainty: Fluctuations in the economy, including inflation and rising interest rates, can reduce consumer spending. Higher interest rates can make auto loans more expensive, potentially deterring customers from purchasing vehicles.
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Competition: The online car sales market is becoming increasingly competitive, with traditional car dealerships expanding their online presence and other tech-driven companies entering the market. Carvana needs to differentiate itself to maintain market share.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Like many industries, the automotive sector has been affected by supply chain issues. Ongoing shortages in new vehicles can impact the availability of used cars, leading to pricing pressures and reduced inventory.
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Regulatory Risks: Changes in regulations concerning vehicle sales or financing could impact operations or profitability. Compliance with state and federal regulations is a constant challenge for online automotive retailers.
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Customer Trust and Experience: Building and maintaining consumer trust is crucial, especially in an industry where customers often prefer to inspect vehicles physically before purchasing. Negative experiences, such as vehicle quality issues or delivery delays, can damage reputation and sales.
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Technological Dependence: Carvana's business model heavily relies on technology for its operations, from the website to logistics. Cybersecurity threats and technical failures can disrupt services and erode customer trust.
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Valuation Risks: High valuation multiples can lead to volatility in stock prices, particularly if the company fails to meet growth expectations. If market sentiment shifts or the company reports weaker-than-expected results, it could lead to significant stock declines.
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Market Saturation: As Carvana expands, it may face challenges in identifying and penetrating new markets where customer acceptance and demand are not guaranteed. Saturation in existing markets could slow growth.
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Financing and Capital Access: Carvana's growth strategy often relies on external financing. Access to capital markets may become constrained due to economic conditions or decreased investor appetite.
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Global Events: Factors such as geopolitical tensions, pandemics, or natural disasters could disrupt operations, affect supply chains, or diminish consumer demand.
To navigate these challenges, Carvana must strategically position itself, focusing on operational efficiency, customer service, and technological innovations while being adaptable to changing market conditions.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Carvana Co
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Carvana Co
Current Assets | 3.8B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 871m |
Receivables | 916m |
Other Current Assets | 2B |
Non-Current Assets | 3.6B |
PP&E | 3.3B |
Intangibles | 39m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 286m |
Current Liabilities | 1.2B |
Accounts Payable | 297m |
Accrued Liabilities | 438m |
Short-Term Debt | 76m |
Other Current Liabilities | 348m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 5.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 5.4B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 167m |
Earnings Waterfall
Carvana Co
Revenue
|
12.6B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-10B
USD
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Gross Profit
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2.5B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-2B
USD
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Operating Income
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528m
USD
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Other Expenses
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-511m
USD
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Net Income
|
17m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Carvana Co
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Carvana celebrated a stellar Q3 with record net income of $148 million and adjusted EBITDA reaching $429 million, boasting an 11.7% EBITDA margin. Sales grew by 34%, totaling 108,651 retail units, paralleling a 32% revenue surge to $3.655 billion. The company projects continued growth, anticipating above $1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the year. Key strategies include enhancing customer experience, increasing brand awareness through additional advertising spend, and optimizing inventory to improve efficiency. As Carvana enhances its infrastructure, it's poised to scale operations significantly, aiming for a potential capacity of up to 3 million units per year.
What is Earnings Call?
CVNA Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Carvana Co's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Carvana Co's profitability score is 50/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
CVNA Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Carvana Co's solvency score is 47/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Carvana Co's solvency score is 47/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
CVNA Price Targets Summary
Carvana Co
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVNA is 243.98 USD with a low forecast of 72.72 USD and a high forecast of 336 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for CVNA is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
CVNA Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Carvana Co. is a holding company and an eCommerce platform, engages in the buying of used cars and provision of different and convenient car buying experiences. The company is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona and currently employs 21,000 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2017-04-28. Through the Company’s platform, consumers can research and identify a vehicle, inspect it using its 360-degree vehicle imaging technology, obtain financing and warranty coverage, purchase the vehicle and schedule delivery or pick-up, all from their desktop or mobile devices. The Company’s transaction technologies and online platform allows customers to secure financing, complete a purchase and schedule delivery or pick-up online. Customers in certain markets also have the option to pick up their vehicle at one of their vending machines. Its in-house distribution network serves over 311 metropolitan markets.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one CVNA stock under the Base Case scenario is 50.29 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 259.36 USD, Carvana Co is Overvalued by 81%.