Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
NYSE:CLF
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one CLF stock under the Base Case scenario is 15.07 USD. Compared to the current market price of 12.46 USD, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is Undervalued by 17%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a prominent player in the iron and steel industry, rooted in a rich history that dates back to 1847. Originally established as a mining company, Cleveland-Cliffs has evolved into a leading producer of flat-rolled steel products, primarily serving the automotive, appliance, and construction sectors. With a strategic focus on vertical integration, the company now controls a significant portion of its supply chain, from iron ore mining to steel fabrication. This positions Cleveland-Cliffs not only as a manufacturer but also as a pivotal supplier to key industries, enhancing its resilience amid fluctuating market conditions. Its recent investments in advanced technology...
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a prominent player in the iron and steel industry, rooted in a rich history that dates back to 1847. Originally established as a mining company, Cleveland-Cliffs has evolved into a leading producer of flat-rolled steel products, primarily serving the automotive, appliance, and construction sectors. With a strategic focus on vertical integration, the company now controls a significant portion of its supply chain, from iron ore mining to steel fabrication. This positions Cleveland-Cliffs not only as a manufacturer but also as a pivotal supplier to key industries, enhancing its resilience amid fluctuating market conditions. Its recent investments in advanced technology and sustainable practices further underline its commitment to innovation and environmental responsibility, appealing to a growing base of socially conscious investors.
In recent years, Cleveland-Cliffs has successfully capitalized on rising demand for high-quality steel, especially as global economic recovery gains momentum. The company's proactive approach to mergers and acquisitions, exemplified by its acquisition of AK Steel and an expansion of its production capabilities, has bolstered its market share and streamlined operations. Investors will appreciate Cleveland-Cliffs' strong balance sheet and commitment to capital returns, which includes share repurchases and dividends, as the company seeks to leverage its position in a cyclical industry. With steel prices stabilizing and a renewed focus on infrastructure development in the United States, Cleveland-Cliffs stands at a critical junction, promising opportunities for growth and profitability in a pivotal sector for the economy.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. is a diversified iron ore mining and steel production company. Its core business segments can be categorized as follows:
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Iron Ore Mining: This segment involves the extraction and production of iron ore pellets, which are a crucial raw material for steel manufacturing. Cleveland-Cliffs operates several iron ore mines and pelletizing facilities in the United States and Canada, focusing on high-quality iron ore products.
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Steelmaking: Cleveland-Cliffs has a significant steel production segment, which includes the production of flat-rolled steel products. This segment is vital as it converts the iron ore produced into steel, serving various industries such as automotive, construction, and appliances.
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Metal & Mining Services: This segment provides various services that support the mining and steel production processes. This may include providing raw materials, logistical support, and technical services to enhance operational efficiency.
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Direct Shipping Ore (DSO): Cleveland-Cliffs may also engage in DSO, where it extracts iron ore that can be shipped directly to customers without extensive processing, allowing for quicker delivery and reduced costs.
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Advanced Materials and Technologies: This emerging segment focuses on the development and commercialization of innovative steelmaking technologies and advanced materials, aimed at improving sustainability and productivity within the industry.
Cleveland-Cliffs is known for its strategic acquisitions and partnerships that have expanded its operational capacities and market reach, reinforcing its position in the iron ore and steel industry.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has several competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the steel and iron ore industry:
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Vertical Integration: Cleveland-Cliffs is one of the largest producers of iron ore pellets in North America and has made significant investments in vertically integrated operations. This means they control the entire supply chain, from iron ore mining to steel production, allowing for greater efficiency and cost control.
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Diverse Product Offering: The company produces a wide variety of iron ore products and high-quality steel, including flat-rolled and tubular products. This diversity allows them to meet various customer needs and reduces dependency on any single product line.
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Recent Acquisitions: The acquisition of AK Steel and other assets has expanded Cleveland-Cliffs’ production capacity, improved their technological capabilities, and strengthened their market position. This consolidation allows them to leverage economies of scale.
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Proximity to Customers: Many of Cleveland-Cliffs’ facilities are located near major automotive and appliance manufacturing hubs in the United States. This proximity reduces transportation costs and enhances delivery times, making them a preferred supplier to key industries.
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Focus on Sustainability: Cleveland-Cliffs is committed to reducing its carbon footprint and implementing sustainability initiatives. This focus not only appeals to environmentally conscious consumers and investors but also helps mitigate regulatory risks associated with environmental policies.
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Strong Financial Position: Cleveland-Cliffs has made strategic moves to manage its debt and improve its financial health. A strong balance sheet provides the company with the flexibility to invest in growth, pursue acquisitions, and weather market downturns better than some competitors.
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Technological Innovation: The company has invested in advanced technologies to improve production efficiency and product quality. Emphasizing innovation keeps them competitive and can lead to cost savings over time.
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Experienced Management Team: The leadership team at Cleveland-Cliffs has a wealth of experience in the metals and mining industry. Their strategic vision and operational expertise can drive the company’s long-term success, particularly in navigating market fluctuations.
These competitive advantages put Cleveland-Cliffs in a strong position within the industry, helping it to maintain market share and profitability in a challenging economic environment.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., as a major player in the steel and iron ore industry, faces several risks and challenges that could impact its performance in the near future. Here are some key factors:
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Market Demand Fluctuations: The demand for steel is closely tied to the performance of the construction and automotive industries. Any slowdown in these sectors, particularly due to economic downturns or shifts in consumer behavior, could adversely affect Cleveland-Cliffs' sales and revenue.
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Raw Material Prices: The company is susceptible to volatility in the prices of iron ore and other raw materials. Price fluctuations can impact profitability, especially if costs rise faster than the company can adjust its pricing.
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Global Competition: Cleveland-Cliffs faces competition from both domestic and international steel producers. Increased competition can lead to pricing pressures, affecting market share and margins.
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Environmental Regulations: As an industrial operation, the company must comply with stringent environmental regulations. Changes in regulations or increased pressure for sustainability can result in higher compliance costs or the need for significant capital investments.
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Technological Changes: Advances in steel production technology, such as electric arc furnaces or alternative materials, could reduce demand for traditional steel products. Keeping pace with technology while managing costs can be challenging.
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Trade Policies and Tariffs: Changes in trade policies, tariffs, and international relations can impact the company's export and import activities. Tariffs on steel imports can provide a temporary advantage but also lead to retaliatory measures from other countries.
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Debt Levels: If the company has significant debt, fluctuations in interest rates or cash flow could pose financial risks. Excessive leverage can limit financial flexibility in times of economic stress.
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Geopolitical Risks: Political instability in key operating regions or changes in trade agreements can disrupt supply chains or increase operational risks.
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Labor Relations: Labor disputes or changes in labor laws can impact production and operational efficiency. Discontent among workers could lead to strikes or reduced productivity.
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Economic Slowdown: Any macroeconomic challenges, such as recession fears or inflationary pressures, can impact consumer spending and industrial production, subsequently affecting demand for steel products.
Cleveland-Cliffs must navigate these challenges carefully, leveraging operational strengths, strategic planning, and risk management to maintain its competitive position in the industry.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Current Assets | 6B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 39m |
Receivables | 1.6B |
Other Current Assets | 4.4B |
Non-Current Assets | 10.8B |
PP&E | 8.7B |
Intangibles | 1.2B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 886m |
Current Liabilities | 3.3B |
Accounts Payable | 2B |
Accrued Liabilities | 792m |
Other Current Liabilities | 480m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 6.7B |
Long-Term Debt | 3.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 2.9B |
Earnings Waterfall
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
Revenue
|
20B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-19.5B
USD
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Gross Profit
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511m
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-569m
USD
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Operating Income
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-58m
USD
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Other Expenses
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-404m
USD
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Net Income
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-462m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Cleveland-Cliffs reported Q3 results affected by weak steel demand and automotive production issues, leading to a $124 million adjusted EBITDA on 3.8 million tons shipped. The average selling price dropped $80 per ton, prompting the idling of 1.5 million tons of furnace capacity. Cost-cutting initiatives were effective, yielding over $40 savings per ton. Anticipating a capital budget of $600 million for 2025, they expect $70 million in reduced coal costs. The recent acquisition of Stelco is projected to generate $120 million in cost synergies within the first year, enhancing operational resilience and boosting EBITDA as favorable market conditions are forecasted for 2025.
What is Earnings Call?
CLF Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc's profitability score is 48/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc's profitability score is 48/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
CLF Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc's solvency score is 36/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc's solvency score is 36/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
CLF Price Targets Summary
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CLF is 14.65 USD with a low forecast of 10.1 USD and a high forecast of 22.05 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for CLF is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
CLF Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Dividend Yield
Description
Cleveland-Cliffs, Inc. is a flat-rolled steel producer, which supplies iron ore pellets to the North American steel industry. The company is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio and currently employs 26,000 full-time employees. The company is engaged in manufacturing iron ore pellets. The company is vertically integrated from mined raw materials, direct reduced iron and ferrous scrap to primary steelmaking and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing. The company offers advanced high-strength steels (AHSS), hot-dipped galvanized, aluminized, galvalume, electrogalvanized, galvanneal, hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil, plate, tinplate, grain oriented electrical steel (GOES), non-oriented electrical steel (NOES), stainless steels, tool and die, stamped components, rail, slab and cast ingot. The company provides steel solutions, such as operations of tooling and stamping, which provides advanced-engineered solutions, tool design and build, hot and cold-stamped components, and complex assemblies for the automotive market. The company serves various markets, such as automotive, infrastructure and manufacturing, steel producers, and distributors and converters.
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The intrinsic value of one CLF stock under the Base Case scenario is 15.07 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 12.46 USD, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc is Undervalued by 17%.