Cadre Holdings Inc

NYSE:CDRE

Earnings Call Analysis

Cadre Raises Guidance Amid Strong Growth

Cadre, amid challenging geopolitics and consistent demand for mission-critical equipment, reported robust performance with a 125% increase in Q3 net income, reaching $11.1 million. The company enjoys a strong backlog of $126.2 million, augmented by $8.3 million over the year, and signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) for an acquisition fitting strategic criteria. Cadre, benefiting from favorable armor product mix, raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $82 million and $85 million with a 10% growth expectation. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA margins peaked at 19%, expanding by 370 basis points. The company continues to generate strong free cash flow, supporting its ninth consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.08. Looking forward, Cadre expects sustained demand, driven by public safety prioritization globally and the brand's emphasis on innovation.

Solidifying a Robust Order Backlog and Ongoing Dividend Payments

Looking forward, Cadre has fortified a strong order backlog, reaching $126.2 million by the end of September, marking an $8.3 million growth since the beginning of the year. The company's strategic use of its low CapEx model to produce significant free cash flow has provided the financial leverage needed to explore acquisition opportunities while also rewarding shareholders with consistent returns, including a ninth consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.08.

Positioned to Benefit from Increased Safety Expenditure

Cadre envisions ongoing success as it capitalizes on the increased focus on public safety both domestically and internationally. Trends indicate a continued rise in police protection spending amidst challenging recruitment, underscoring the enduring demand for Cadre's mission-critical protective gear. Notably, with police budgets remaining robust, spending per officer is on an upward trajectory, ensuring Cadre's products remain essential purchases.

Anticipating Market Demand Amid Geopolitical Developments

The company is closely monitoring the evolving landscape in Ukraine and expects new avenues of demand for its products. As the clearance of unexploded ordnance is predicted to take decades, Cadre is looking to capitalize on long-term opportunities, particularly in providing EOD tools and equipment that align with market needs in the ongoing crisis.

Innovative Product Development Driving Revenue Growth

Operations-wise, Cadre has been successfully mitigating supply chain concerns while also witnessing a positive trend in labor attraction and retention. On the product innovation front, Cadre saw a 5% increase in duty gear sales and a notable 47% rise in tactical soft armor sales. New product launches, like the award-winning IncogX holster, are clear contributors to these impressive sales figures, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation and premium market positioning.

Significant Improved Financial Performance and Prospects

Financially, Cadre achieved a substantial uptick in key metrics such as net sales, gross margin, net income, and, notably, a 125% growth in third-quarter net income year-over-year. The adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter reached 19%, standing as the highest since the company went public. In light of these strong performances, management has confidently increased the full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to suggest a potential annual growth of 10%.

Raising Full-Year Financial Expectations and Focusing on M&A

Encouraged by its strategic execution and the solid results in the year thus far, Cadre has raised the midpoints for its full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA and revenue forecasts. Mergers and acquisitions remain a strategic priority, with the recent signing of a letter of intent to acquire a business that adheres to Cadre's stringent criteria. The company foresees leveraging more such opportunities in the near future, bolstered by favorable industry dynamics and rising public safety budgets.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to Cadre Holdings Third Quarter ended September 30, 2023 Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Matt Berkowitz of the IGB Group for introductions and the reading of the Safe Harbor statement. Please go ahead, sir.

[Matthew Berkowitz]

Thank you, and welcome to Cadre Holdings Third Quarter Conference Call. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that, during today's call, we will be making several forward-looking statements, and we make these statements under the Safe Harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements reflect our best estimates and assumptions based on our understanding of information known to us today. These forward-looking statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties that face Cadre in the industries and markets in which we operate. More information on potential factors that could affect Cadre's financial results is included from time to time in Cadre's public reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Please also note that we have posted presentation materials on our website at www.cadre-holdings.com, which supplement our comments this evening and include a reconciliation of certain non-GAAP financial measures.

I would like to remind everyone that this call will be available for replay through November 22, 2023, starting at 8 p.m. Eastern Time tonight. A webcast replay will also be available via the link provided in today's press release as well as on Cadre's website. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Cadre's Chairman and CEO, Warren Kanders.

[Warren Kanders, executive]

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Cadre's earnings call to discuss our results for the third quarter of 2023. I am joined today by our President, Brad Williams; and our Chief Financial Officer, Blaine Browers.

Coming off of the third quarter of 2023, I continue to be very proud of the focus and execution our management team has demonstrated in achieving record results in adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margins for the second consecutive quarter. Brad, Blaine and the team's implementation of the Cadre operating model is driving these results. As I said last quarter, this execution creates operating leverage by using superior operating tools and business processes to produce profitability improvements above our natural growth rate. We have continued rolling the model out across our entire portfolio, and we are gaining momentum as we do.

Brad and Blaine will go into more detail later, but the results here speak for themselves. For the third quarter, while revenues were up 12.1%, gross profit increased 22.7%. We achieved record adjusted EBITDA margins of 19%, record quarterly adjusted EBITDA of $23.7 million, adjusted EBITDA grew 14.4% and fully diluted net income per share for the quarter increased 123%.

Looking at the 9-month year-to-date results underscores the performance outside the lenses of a single quarter. Revenues up 7.1%, gross profit up 18.7%, adjusted EBITDA up 22.1% and adjusted EBITDA margin up to 18.2% from 16%. We as a team are exceptionally proud of how we have been able to deliver for our shareholders. Before moving to M&A, I would like to comment again on the macros driving our business. We are in an environment where geopolitical conditions seem to get worse by the day, and the level of internal conflict inside most countries is on the rise. Domestically, the levels of danger-facing first responders have not abated to any appreciable degree, if at all.

Our role is to provide mission-critical, life-saving equipment to the professionals around the world who work to keep us safe. We have the distribution and manufacturing capabilities to cover a substantial part of the world, and we see no sign that the secular trends driving demand for our products are going anywhere but up.

As our business has grown, we have experienced increasing capacity requirements and have reacted accordingly. Our ability to do this is a testament to our management team and our many dedicated employees, suppliers, distribution partners and other stakeholders. It also speaks to the quality of our products, the strength of our brands, superior execution and deliveries and the trust our customers and end users place in Cadre's equipment.

Having said that, to be clear, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have not impacted our businesses in any material way. As we have mentioned previously, we do expect, as these events eventually abate, there may be an opportunity for Cadre to play a larger role through a number of our products, most notably through our various EOD offerings.

Lastly, an update on our M&A program. I am pleased to report that we signed a letter of intent approximately 3 weeks ago with a business that we have been in discussions with for a number of months. The business in its most recent fiscal year ended during the summer achieved approximately $19 million of revenues, with gross margins in excess of 50% and EBITDA margins in excess of 25%. While we cannot be more specific due to confidentiality obligations, the business is in a category that we have targeted as a priority for a tuck-in type deal. Confirmatory due diligence is underway, and we hope to speak more about this soon.

More broadly, we continue to work hard on our M&A pipeline, and we believe we are starting to get more traction. As you are all aware, the credit markets remain very weak. They started going south in mid-2022 and, this time last year, bankers were predicting conditions would improve in the first or second quarters of 2023. That did not happen, and the credit markets have only gotten worse.

In the context of our company, we have been patient and disciplined in our approach to M&A while generating substantial free cash flow to deliver and fortify our balance sheet, with net debt standing at less than 1x net debt to adjusted EBITDA at the end of the quarter. As weak credit conditions and an anemic M&A market have persisted for such a long time and not shown signs of improving, sellers of many different types, including financial sponsors and founders, have decided to engage in discussions to sell, and valuations are adjusting to reflect these realities.

In addition to the current letter of intent we have executed, we are seeing more actionable opportunities, and our balance sheet and financial performance position us well, capitalize on these opportunities as they present themselves. Lastly, we are in constant contact with our banks, and they have indicated their support for our approach given the way in which we have delivered on our commitments to them over the years.

In conclusion, I am proud of our results for this quarter and for the first 9 months of the year. We are happy to be able to increase our earnings guidance for the year again based on our performance and as the remainder of the year comes into focus. As I have said before, our businesses are resilient. Our operating model is showing results, and we are excited with how we think this year will play out and how things are setting up for 2024.

With that, thank you for being with us today, and I will turn the call over to Brad. Brad, over to you.

[Brad Williams, executive]

Thank you, Warren. On today's call, Blaine and I will provide a Q3 update and business overview, including recent trends and financial performance followed by a Q&A session. Before I dive into our third quarter results, I'd like to take a moment to expand on Warren's comments about our operating model and success continuing to fulfill Cadre's mission of "Together We Save Lives". We are excited about our progress advancing the Cadre operating model as we engage the organization in pursuit of the idea of better every day. Our team members feel an extraordinary sense of purpose supporting our special mission, which lives not just in the hearts and minds of our associates, but extends to our channel partners and end customers.

As many of you know, we have what we call the Safe Club, which was set up many years ago to recognize first responders that survive life-threatening situations using or wearing our products. This club has grown to 2,177 saves. We're averaging about 34 saves per year. So if you think about that a minute, that equates to approximately 3 men or women that get to come home and live their lives with their families and friends every day. We're proud of who we are and what we do and look forward to continuing to provide best-in-class equipment that protects the law enforcement, military and security professionals who keep us all safe.

Turning now to our third quarter. We'll begin on Slide 5. During the quarter, we continued to capitalize on Cadre's entrenched positions in law enforcement, first responders and military markets as the company increased quarterly revenue, net income and gross margin sequentially and year-over-year. Our outstanding results reflect the team's continued strategic execution combined with strong sustained demand for our mid-critical safety and survivability equipment. We value the strong relationships we have with customers, and we continue to have success in the third quarter, managing our portfolio of premium products in the market.

Combined with favorable Q3 product mix as well as productivity gains driven by the continued implementation of our operating model, we achieved significant margin expansion. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 19% was our highest since going public, and gross margins increased by 370 basis points. Q3 product mix reflected favorable armor product mix in the quarter.

Looking ahead, we maintain a strong order backlog, which was $126.2 million as of September 30, an $8.3 million increase since the start of the year. We remain focused on executing M&A and believe our funnel is still healthy in opportunities that we continue to actively evaluate. As Warren mentioned, we have recently signed an LOI to acquire new business, and expect to be able to share more soon.

Based on our low CapEx model, we continue to generate strong free cash flow that enables us to take advantage of attractive growth opportunities while returning capital to shareholders. Last month, we declared our ninth consecutive quarterly dividend of $0.08. On Slide 6, we highlight the macro tailwinds supporting a sustainable growth opportunity for Cadre [indiscernible] foreseeable future. We continue to see a broad push to prioritize public safety in both the U.S. and abroad and believe Cadre is ideally positioned to capitalize on these secular tailwinds over the medium- and long-term.

Turning to Slide 7. I'll take a moment to zoom in on current market trends and their impact on our business. We have not seen any signs that police hiring is becoming easier, but healthy police budgets continue to drive increased spending per officer. Cadre's mission-critical protective equipment is consistently prioritized when departments are determining officer needs, no matter the economic environment. Police protection expenditures have continued to trend upward even during past financial and industrial recessions.

Moving to the next bullet. In terms of the current geopolitical landscape and consequences for our core businesses, we continue to engage with partners and customers globally to meet orders that fit our model. With that said, we expect there could be movement that creates demand for our products, moving forward, as the word in Ukraine shifts to its next phase. For example, we anticipate active discussions we've been having about providing EOD tools and equipment could lead to opportunities down the road. Based on the situation on the ground, it will take decades to clear the vast amount of unexploded ordinance in Ukraine, which expands the cycle of opportunity on the EOD side for Cadre but likely will be focused on higher mix of the mine protective wear rather than EOD suits.

Turning to supply chain and labor trends. The environment has been stable in recent months. Our team continues to do an outstanding job of proactively addressing supply chain issues, and extended lead times that we saw last year appear to be mostly behind us. We continue to be pleased with our progress on attracting and retaining labor to meet our needs.

On the consumer side, we saw 5% growth in our duty gear sales driven by our focus on new products in this space. One example that has been very successful is the launch of the IncogX holster, which we launched in partnership with Haley Strategic. In fact, the IncogX holster won Guns & Ammo's Holster of the Year. Cadre's commitment to innovation is a key differentiator and allows us to maintain our premium position in our core law enforcement, first responder and military markets.

Following the introduction of our HyperX Tactical Armor platform, Expert Fit 3D body sizing app and SafariVault line of holsters all launched in the last 9 months, we continue to hear positive feedback from customers. Of note, we've experienced a 47% increase of tactical soft armor in the first 3 quarters of 2023 compared to the same period of last year, with growth directly related and tied to HyperX.

I'll now turn the call over to our CFO, Blaine Browers.

[Blaine Browers, executive]

Thanks, Brad. I'll begin our remarks by discussing our M&A strategy and the general acquisition environment. Slide 8 summarizes the key criteria that drive Cadre's M&A process. We view potential transactions within 3 categories - those that will expand our suite of products, those that will enable us to enter new markets and those that will grow our geographic footprint. We target businesses with high margins, leading market positions and strong recurring cash flows and revenues.

Per Warren's earlier remarks, we cannot be more specific about the recent LOI we signed due to confidentiality obligations. But I can share that this business fits well within our platform, and its profile is very much consistent with our key criteria. Regarding broader M&A markets, it continues to be a tough financing market as lenders have significantly tightened their lending standards. In fact, Bloomberg recently reported the average multiple on new LBO deals is down 1.4 turns from a year ago, reflecting this new environment that shows us the gap between buyers and sellers appears to be closing.

The next 2 slides have detail our third quarter financial performance. As you can see on Slide 9, we increased net sales, gross margin, net income, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA margin in the third quarter, both on a sequential and year-over-year basis. The increase in net sales reflects our significant orders backlog and was mainly driven by higher domestic demand for armor products and large orders for crowd control products. This was partially offset by decreased agency demand for hard goods. Third quarter net income was $11.1 million, or $0.29 per share, grew nearly 125% compared to last year's Q3.

As we continue to implement our operating model and management positioning of our portfolio of premium products during the third quarter, we achieved significant margin expansion. For the second consecutive quarter, our adjusted EBITDA margin of 19% was our highest since going public, and gross margins increased 370 basis points year-over-year. Illustrated on Slide 10 is net sales and adjusted EBITDA growth year-over-year. As you can see, driven by increased revenue and improved gross profit margin, Cadre's 9-month 2023 adjusted EBITDA was up 22% versus last year.

Based on our third quarter performance and management's outlook for the remainder of the year, we have raised the midpoint of our full year adjusted EBITDA guidance range and increased the midpoint of our 2023 net sales guidance. I'll discuss our new guidance in a moment.

On Slide 11, we present our capital structure as of September 30. Our net debt was $74 million, a further reduction of 15% since the end of Q2. This gives us net leverage of 0.8x. These levels, we maintain significant financial flexibility to grow both organically and inorganically through acquisitions.

We provided updated 2023 guidance on Slide 15. We've tightened our full year net sales range, raising the midpoint. We do expect 2023 net sales to be between $477 million and $481 million. Our upwardly revised adjusted EBITDA guidance range of between $82 million and $85 million implies 10% annual growth on adjusted EBITDA versus our initial forecast of 4% at the beginning of the year.

Additionally, whereas the midpoint of our original guidance implied adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.2%, our success in the year-to-date has significantly increased our expectations for the full-year margins. Based on the updated midpoints, adjusted EBITDA margins rise to 17.4%.

While in the prior year, Q4 was our largest revenue quarter of the year, we now expect that Q3 will be the high watermark for revenue. One of the large international orders that we expected to ship in Q4 was actually shipped ahead of time in Q3, changing this expectation. We do expect armor volume to be down sequentially and the mix to return to normal. Based on these developments, along with the mix and EOD shifting to less profitable products, we expect margins to be lower sequentially. I would also like to reiterate that, for the most of our businesses, we only have 45 to 60 days of backlog visibility at any given time.

I'll now turn it over to Brad for concluding comments.

[Brad Williams, executive]

Thank you, Blaine. In summary, we are highly pleased with our strategic execution in the year-to-date, which is reflected in our strong third quarter and 9-month financial results. Once again, we generated record EBITDA margins and quarterly adjusted EBITDA as we continue to implement our operating model focused on attaining and sustaining exceptional results. We are pleased to raise the midpoints of both our full-year 2023 adjusted EBITDA and revenue outlook.

M&A continues to be a focus, and we recently signed a letter of intent with a business that meets our key criteria. We expect to capitalize on additional attractive growth opportunities and remain confident that we will see more of these opportunities in the months ahead. Backed by macro tailwinds related to increasing public safety budgets and favorable industry dynamics, we believe Cadre is ideally positioned to further grow our leading platform of premium safety brands, moving forward.

With that, operator, please open up the lines for Q&A.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

[Daniel Imbro, analyst]

Maybe one on the international market side. I think it was encouraging to hear you guys won a contract there. Warren, I think your comments kind of signaled it wasn't the Middle East, that hasn't really materialized into new business yet. So one, can you comment on what market you won the international contract? And then, two, given what's going on globally, how long would it be before you expect that evolving conflict to materialize into some safety orders for you guys' products?

[Brad Williams, executive]

I can take the first part, and Warren, you can jump in. When I referenced the large international contract in Q3 that was originally planned in Q4, that's actually in a North America outside the U.S. order on the [indiscernible] control products. We have had some orders for Ukraine, but I think consistent, as we said, it's not been material to this point. And really, it will be in that demining side of the world for EOD. So it won't be in the suits. It will really be in that demining, which is a less protective version of the EOD suit. That makes sense, Daniel?

[Daniel Imbro, analyst]

And could you quantify maybe that contract that was pulled from 4Q and 3Q at all, [ Blaine ]?

[Blaine Browers, executive]

We can't disclose to you the sensitivity, but it was significant of the business. I think as you kind of go through and look at the change in consensus, that will give you a feel for the size and scale of it.

[Daniel Imbro, analyst]

And then maybe taking a step back here, Warren, cash continues to build on the balance sheet even for this pending deal, but let's call it a few million bucks of EBITDA. You still should have excess cash, assuming a normal multiple. What do you view as the strategic or best uses of that cash? Are there CapEx projects you could pull forward? You guys don't have a ton of that. Is it a special dividend? Just how do you foresee deploying that capital back to shareholders in the absence of deals?

[Warren Kanders, executive]

Well, the good news is we don't have an absence of deals. I mean, we're working on a number as we speak. In fact, one we thought had gone away, I think the last time we spoke, we talked about deals that we had bid on that had been withdrawn. One of those is back. So our pipeline right now is quite full. And as the guys said before, the multiples are now reflective of the cost of capital and the overall environment. So we couldn't be more excited.

So our objective is to reinvest our cash in transactions. The company that we're buying, that we have an LOI on, is similar to our existing businesses, and that one also has low CapEx, [ lot of ] requirements and has margins. And I think you know from the last couple of transactions we've done, we are trying to target EBITDA margins in excess of 20%.

[Daniel Imbro, analyst]

And then last one for me, Brad. You mentioned productivity gains and some self-help on the 3Q margin. Other than the timing of that contract, anything one-time in that leverage? Or are you unlocking more savings maybe as you continue to scale the business and just turn over more stones on the productivity side?

[Brad Williams, executive]

No, I mean, there's nothing significant one-time, Daniel, as we look at productivity. This is really that mantra of doing things Just a little better each day [indiscernible] we kind of look sequentially, right? We use that as a good gauge of [indiscernible] improving not just on a year-over-year basis, but were we better than this quarter than last quarter.

So this will be something we continue to build on. We've certainly seen some very strong gains from the team on a year-on-year basis and sequentially. So we're really pleased with everyone's progress really across the globe when it comes to the adoption of the operating model and daily management really just pushing all the businesses forward.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Van Sinderen with B. Riley & Co.

[Jeff Van Sinderen, analyst]

So just wanted to go back to the demining suit, I guess, you would call it, the less productive (sic) [ protective ] version of the EOD. Can you just remind us of the dollar price point there versus the full suit?

[Blaine Browers, executive]

Yes. When you think about a full bomb suit, right, you're upwards of $30,000 or right around there. This would be a de-mining suit. It can vary, right, and there's actually a level of between, Jeff, as we talked about, what the company refer to as a Tac-6 suit, or a tactical suit. As you move down to demining, you're certainly above kind of the body armor level but below even the Tac-6 protection. And that can vary depending on there's variation there, but you're really talking generally sub-$5,000 and north of $1,000. The difference on that one, though, is one of the restrictions around EOD suits is we've talked about the market. It's a fairly limited market, right, with about 20,000 operators across the globe. So there's just a limited number there, right, and we'll continue to sell those, and we continue to be the proven, [indiscernible] choice for those operators.

As you move down, though, what demining allows you is you don't have to have the same level of training you do with the EOD, and you're addressing different levels of threat, right? That's the different level of protection. The demining, though, is a much higher volume game. So the teams are worked in very diligently with partners and really kind of working with Ukraine and different embassies across the globe to ensure that, hey, when the time is right, here's the suite of products that we have available to ensure we protect the men and women that are out there making the country safe again.

[Warren Kanders, executive]

Again, the timing of that will be when the hostilities cease, right, because you can't go in and do that kind of work. And that same work will need to be done in Gaza, as well.

[Jeff Van Sinderen, analyst]

Right. That was going to be my next question, was just have you had any inquiries yet around what's happening in the Middle East?

[Warren Kanders, executive]

So, I mean, we get increase. Israel is a customer, and we're doing what we can. But obviously, a lot of the stuff that's going over there right now is kind of big munitions related to Iron Dome and just the bombs that drop.

[Jeff Van Sinderen, analyst]

And then just, I guess, anything, just a quick follow-up, if I could, just any update on the blast sensor product? Just wondering kind of where we are with that.

[Blaine Browers, executive]

Jeff, are you talking about blast sensors?

[Jeff Van Sinderen, analyst]

Yes, yes, the sensor.

[Blaine Browers, executive]

I just want to make sure. So on the blast sensor side of things, still the same status as previous quarter. What we're being told right now is the first quarter of next year is when we'll receive that feedback on the current phase of the project that we're in. So we're still in that wait-and-see phase in terms of any changes in requirements as we go forward with that project. But so far, no news is good news.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

[Unknown Analyst]

This is [ Sam Gatzes ] on here for Sheila. I just wanted to ask quickly, another strong quarter of gross margins and EBITDA margins. Continued sequential performance is strong. You mentioned EOD and armor mix should continue to normalize into Q4. Can you just help us frame some of these other moving pieces within the implied EBITDA guide that steps down a few points sequentially here in Q4?

[Blaine Browers, executive]

The 2 biggest pieces are really armor mix. We do have some larger armor orders in Q4 that we have visibility today on that we know will be lower margin that we experienced in Q3, and really more of that normalization. And then on the EOD side, as we think about the different products, this would be moving away from EOD suits to do more volume in some of our other product lines, such as tools and robots, which are just a lower margin profile in that quarter. That's really the 2 drivers, along with a little bit of volume leverage, obviously, with the lower top line. That's implied in that guidance.

[Unknown Analyst]

And I guess, maybe just to step back and talk a little bit more on sort of top line, a strong 12% year-over-year growth and up 3% sequentially against its typically seasonally soft Q3. Can you just help us kind of bucket the growth drivers within that? And sort of you mentioned the large international order, but is there anything like timing of backlog or price, or just more volume out the door that got pulled forward here in Q3?

[Blaine Browers, executive]

Yes, it's really volume. I mean there's some price, but price sequentially is not a significant component there. I think as you kind of think about the drivers, there's no -- other than the large international order I mentioned in the craft control side. There's nothing that really picks up significantly.

The Armor team, in particular, has had some significant volume, Brad mentioned HyperX, which is that soft tactical that continued to deliver some hard armor products as well, driven really by the Uvalde school incident last year, which is really going to be place, and shields. And those are really those kind of drivers there. Other than that, there's nothing that really kind of sticks out. But those are significant numbers. When you think about that large international order, that's a very significant number for that business, has certainly impacted the quarter. And again, it kind of implied where we can't really talk about the size of the order, but it's certainly implied when you look at the change in guidance and certainly kind of Q3, Q4 change.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Matt Koranda with ROTH MKM.

[Matt Koranda, analyst]

You covered the margin swing for the fourth quarter, but I wanted to maybe get a better understanding of the swing factors on the top line guide for the fourth quarter, I guess implied in the guide. You have a $10 million range. Maybe just talk about the factors on swinging to the high end or the low end of that guidance range. And then just are there any large orders we should be thinking about that could get pulled in or pushed out that kind of factor in there?

[Blaine Browers, executive]

Yes. The push and pull really is implied in that kind of range, Matt. And certainly, when we get to the end of the year, time gets critical when you hit the holidays. So certainly, when you think international, anything that gets pushed out into kind of maybe decision point in kind of mid-December, or even earlier than that, tends to have some risk to it.

So I think, as we always get to end of the year, we get a little cautious on those orders. Certainly kind of where we sit today, we feel confident on the range and the guide, but there's a couple significant orders really in armor, is really going to be the kind of make or break. And [indiscernible] kind of thinking about the business and that visibility, right? That really tends to be armor and duty here that have that shorter visibility, whereas the EOD tends to have that larger visibility.

So when you think about the armor and duty here, it's about those orders coming in, when you move to the EOD side, that's typically driven by maybe customer changes on delivery dates, right? We already have the firm order in place, or it could be driven by payments where what prior shipment, we're waiting on a prepayment or a full payment. Those are really the kind of the 2 components that impact the range there as we move into Q4.

[Brad Williams, executive]

But I would say, overall, Matt, we've factored in when we built that revised range overall for any of those kind of potential situations that Blaine was just referencing.

[Blaine Browers, executive]

So we kind of think about that too, Matt. That's not a loss. We don't think about that as losing. That would just be a push

[Matt Koranda, analyst]

And then just on the acquisition, I know you probably don't want to say too much on it, but just curious. The language you used was that it's similar to the existing business. Does that mean that it could be an existing products? Or maybe just any flavor for sort of where you might be headed there.

[Warren Kanders, executive]

We're not going to go there. Just say it's a very comfortable business. We know the people. And we're very excited about the opportunity. Obviously, we need to go through all the things that we go through to acquire businesses working through the contracts and the diligence and so on. But we're encouraged by this one. And I think, when we can speak about it specifically, you'll agree with us that it's a very strong deal.

[Operator]

And the next question comes from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

[Ronald Epstein, analyst]

A lot's been asked, but let me see if I can open the aperture a little bit. So Warren, when you think about M&A, security is a broad definition, right? So there are verticals that you don't currently play in, maybe more technically-oriented tech like electronics, that kind of thing. When we think about potential deals you could do, how are you thinking about adjacencies and other verticals that aren't where you're playing currently?

[Warren Kanders, executive]

So we have an extraordinary management team led by Brad and Blaine, and as you know, the they all have an operating model background. And so whatever we look at, those opportunities will need to benefit from the operating models, which we have been developing for our own business here over the last number of years and where you are seeing -- we're all seeing the benefit of that right now.

So the transaction that we talked about earlier, that's right on top of everything that we do. Today, we would be looking at adjacencies in areas that could involve electronics, and we have some capabilities in-house on that. And Brad in particular has had a personal experience in those types of things, industrial safety and so on. But again, we are looking for those businesses that can benefit from the operating model and discipline that we have.

And I think also we spoke previously about the types of margins that we would want to experience in those businesses. So we are looking only at opportunities where the EBITDA margins are in excess of 20% and where there's not a lot of CapEx required to maintain and grow those businesses.

But there seems to be more today available than there have been. I think we're going to see, and Ron, you probably know this from talking to a lot of your companies you cover, there's going to be more internal thinking about what [indiscernible] some of these larger companies what they have, what the mix is and divesting certain things that don't fit in. And so it's pretty ripe for us.

Also, private equity, as you probably have read, it's very difficult for new funds to be raised even for the largest firms. And there are a lot of firms out there today that are orphans, and with higher interest rates, that's a problem. And so that is forcing a lot of private equity firms to reevaluate what they have, how long they can keep it, what they need to do with those assets.

So we're as encouraged as we could be right now about who we are, what we do, our balance sheet. As you know, we're very careful about that. And think Blaine's very focused every day, not just on the operating aspects of the business, but also on our balance sheet, as well. And so these are the disciplines that we would take forward with us as we're looking to buy [ new things. ]

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Smith with Lake Street Capital Markets.

[Mark Smith, analyst]

Sorry if I missed this earlier in the call, but can you discuss kind of new products, how those are performing, especially a lot of those that we saw kind of introduced early in calendar '23?

[Brad Williams, executive]

Mark, this is Brad. So new product wise, what I talked about a little bit earlier, we're really proud of the progress we've made. And I know you've seen some of those HyperX product Expert Fit 3D body sizing, the Safarivault line, and then we have a whole host of consumer holsters that we've launched. And most notably, our IncogX holster, just won Guns & Ammo Holster of the Year.

So we're really, really proud about what we're doing from a new product perspective. When you look at the growth overall for the consumer side of things, we, in our remarks, showed a 5% increase on duty gear on the consumer side for us. And then HyperX has reported 45-plus percent growth on the HyperX side of things. So we love engineers. World would be a better place with more engineers, quite frankly, and our team's having fun with innovation and, quite frankly, spending a lot of time with customers and just understanding pain points and where we can continue to improve things and make their lives better and continue to uphold our mission around saving lives. So I'm really proud of the results we're seeing.

[Mark Smith, analyst]

You bring up the kind of consumer side of the business doing well. Any commentary? We've seen higher demand in October following events in the Middle East, even domestically for some of those products. Any insights you can give us in maybe October, what those trends looked like on the consumer side of the business?

[Blaine Browers, executive]

Yes. I think October is consistent with our expectations, which I think is kind of the framework we've seen all year now. Our expectations are probably a little bit different than what you'd expect in the market, and that's really driven by these new products that, as Brad mentioned, had great success.

So yes, I think, when you look at the statistics, the consumer markets certainly just kind of stays kind of maybe flattish to down, whereas with those new products, we're able to continue to expand our share and grow in those markets, and what we're seeing kind of early part of Q4, as well.

[Operator]

And there are no further questions at this time. Brad Williams, I will turn the call back over to you.

[Brad Williams, executive]

Thank you, operator. I'd like to thank everyone again for joining us on today's call and your continued interest in Cadre. Thank you.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you, and have a great day.