Brown & Brown Inc

NYSE:BRO

Earnings Call Analysis

Strong Q3 performance with solid growth and optimistic outlook

In Q3, the company reported nearly $1.2 billion in revenue, reflecting an 11% increase and 9.5% organic growth. Adjusted EBITDAC margin improved to 34.9%, with earnings per share rising 12.3% to $0.91. They achieved four acquisitions, enhancing their capabilities. Economic conditions remain stable, with predictions of continued moderate growth amid potential uncertainties. The company anticipates 24-26% cash flow conversion for 2024, with a projected 100 basis point rise in EBITDAC margin. Looking ahead, retail growth is expected to be around 5%, indicating strong momentum into the fourth quarter.

Strong Performance Amid Challenges

In the third quarter of 2023, Brown & Brown, Inc. showcased exceptional performance, with total revenues reaching approximately $1.2 billion. This marked an impressive 11% increase year-over-year, along with a solid 9.5% organic growth. The achievement was driven by substantial new business wins and an effective team dedicated to delivering strong customer solutions. Additionally, the company's EBITDAC margin saw an expansion of 30 basis points, reaching 34.9%, while earnings per share (EPS) rose by 12.3% to $0.91. These results not only highlight the firm’s operational excellence but also underscore its resilient position despite external challenges.

Market Dynamics and Pricing Trends

Market conditions remained largely stable in key operating regions, with consumer demand sustaining business investments, although at a moderated pace. Notably, insurance pricing trends showed some cooling off; while rates were still increasing, the pace was notably slower compared to earlier in the year. For example, rate increases for admitted property and casualty lines ranged from flat to up 7%, while rates for excess casualty continued to climb, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures. Brown & Brown anticipates that with the projected general economic stability, these pricing trends could continue into 2024, albeit with a slight potential decline in some categories.

Segment-Wise Analysis: Retail, Programs, and Wholesale Brokerage

The company's performance varied across segments. The Retail segment growth registered 6.5%, with only 3.9% organic growth, attributed largely to moderating rates and incentive compensation effects. Meanwhile, the Programs segment excelled with total revenue growth of 15.7% and remarkable organic growth of 22.8%, largely driven by new customers in their lender-placed business. The Wholesale Brokerage segment also performed well, achieving 14% revenue growth and 8.4% organic growth. The disparities in growth rates across the segments reflect the unique challenges and opportunities within each market niche.

M&A Activity and Future Outlook

Brown & Brown completed four acquisitions during the quarter, adding estimated annual revenues of $8 million. The ongoing competition for high-quality M&A targets remains robust, especially as interest rates show signs of decreasing, prompting more interest from private equity firms. The company's disciplined approach in pursuing acquisitions that fit both culturally and financially is clear. As they look towards Q4 and beyond, Brown & Brown is confident in their strategy and anticipates closing their acquisition of Quintes, which will further enhance their capabilities.

Guidance for Future Performance

Looking ahead, the company remains optimistic, with expectations that full-year 2024 EBITDAC margins will improve by at least 100 basis points compared to 2023. Additionally, free cash flow generation is anticipated to be strong, with expectations set between 24%-26% of total revenue for the year. The management's insights into potential impacts from recent hurricanes suggest that they expect to record approximately $12-$15 million in flood claims processing revenue by the first quarter of 2025, adding further positive cash flow potential.

Investment Summary

In summary, Brown & Brown Inc. not only demonstrated strong performance through Q3 2023 but also effectively navigated various market challenges. The combination of solid revenue growth, expanding margins, and disciplined M&A activity presents a compelling case for potential investors. With favorable projections for cash flow generation and EBITDAC margin improvements, the outlook signifies a strong investment opportunity in a company positioned to capitalize on both market conditions and strategic growth initiatives.

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, and welcome to the Brown & Brown, Inc. third quarter earnings call. Today's call is being recorded.

Please note that certain information discussed during this call, including information contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and included -- and including answers given in response to your questions, may relate to future results and events or otherwise be forward-looking in nature. Such statements reflect our current views with respect to the future events, including those relating to the company's anticipated financial results for the third quarter and are intended to fall within the safe harbor provisions of the securities laws.

Actual results or events in the future are subject to -- subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from those currently anticipated or desired or referenced in any forward-looking statements made as such -- as a result of a number of factors. Such factors in the company's determination as it finalizes its financial results for the third quarter, that its financial results differ from the current preliminary unaudited numbers set forth in the press release issued yesterday, other factors that the company may not have currently identified or quantified and those risks and uncertainties identified from time to time in the company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Additional discussion of these and other factors affecting the company's business and prospects as well as additional information regarding forward-looking statements is contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

In addition, there are certain non-GAAP financial measures used in this conference call. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the company's earnings press release or in the investor presentation for this call on the company's website at www.bbinsurance.com by clicking on Investor Relations and then Calendar of Events.

With that said, I'll now turn the call over to Powell Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to our Q3 earnings call. First, we'd like to state that our hearts go out to all those impacted by hurricanes Helene and Milton. These back-to-back storms were unprecedented in many ways and resulted in significant death and destruction throughout the Southeastern United States. We're committed to helping communities impacted by these events recover and return to normalcy over the coming weeks, months and years.

With that, let's transition to our performance for the quarter. We had an outstanding top and bottom line results. Our team continues to deliver for our customers, resulting in strong net new business, organic growth and margin expansion. I'll provide some high-level comments regarding our performance along with the updates on the insurance market and the M&A landscape. Andy will then discuss our financial performance in more detail. And lastly, I'll wrap up with some closing thoughts before we go to Q&A. Now let's discuss our results.

I'm on Slide 4. We delivered nearly $1.2 billion of revenue, growing 11% in total and 9.5% organically over the third quarter of 2023. Our adjusted EBITDAC margin improved by 30 basis points to 34.9%, and our adjusted earnings per share grew 12.3% to $0.91. On the M&A front, we completed 4 acquisitions with estimated annual revenues of $8 million. Overall, it was another great quarter as our team is focused on delivering the best solutions for our customers and strong results.

I'm on Slide #5. In the countries where we primarily operate, there were no major changes in the economic conditions versus the first half of this year. Consumers are still spending and driving demand. As a result, businesses are continuing to hire and invest, albeit at a more moderate pace as compared to the last few years. Here in the U.S., we're seeing a bit more caution due to the uncertainty around the presidential election.

From an insurance pricing standpoint, rates for many lines continue to increase but at a slightly slower pace versus what we experienced in the first half of this year and the third quarter of last year. The line that had the largest change for the quarter was E&S property, which we'll talk about in more detail in just a moment.

Pricing for employee benefits was similar to prior quarters with medical and primary cost trends up 7% and 9% for commission-based accounts. The continual upward rate pressure and the complexity of health care are driving strong demand for our employee benefits consulting businesses. Based on our historical and ongoing investments to expand our capabilities, we are well positioned to help companies of any size navigate this challenging market.

Rates in the admitted P&C markets were up 2% to 7% for most lines. The downward trend for workers' compensation remained, but there was moderation as we realized decreases of down 1% to 5% in most states. With the high level of employment, we expect this range to continue over the coming quarters.

For the third quarter, rate increases for non-CAT property moderated and were in the range of flat to up 5%. For properties in convective storm zones, we did not see the same rate increases that we experienced in the first half of the year. For casualty, we continue to see rate increases for primary layers due to ongoing size of legal judgments in the U.S. and to a lesser extent, higher levels of inflation. Consistent with the last few quarters, rates for excess casualty continue to increase between 1% and 10% or even more in some instances. Professional liability, we saw rates flat to up 5%.

Shifting to the E&S markets. As you know, this year, some carriers and facilities have been willing to put up incremental limits on existing insurers and new business. While CAT property rates continue to increase slightly in the first quarter of this year, we started to see decreases later in the second quarter and into the third quarter. On average, rates decreased between 10% and 20% as compared to the third quarter of last year. As a result, some customers increase their limits or modified deductibles and some just capture the savings.

As we've mentioned before, moderate rate increases or decreases for one line of business will generally not have a material impact on the results of our company in total. In order to deliver consistently strong and industry-leading financial performance, we focus on diversification across lines of coverage, geography, industry and customer segment.

On the M&A front, competition for high-quality businesses remained consistent with the first half of the year. While the number of acquisitions by private equity backers decreased as interest rates rose, we're now starting to see higher levels of activity as interest rates are beginning to decrease. For the quarter, we continue to build relationships with many companies and remain focused on our disciplined M&A approach to identify great organizations, which align culturally and makes sense financially.

I'm on Slide 6. Let's transition to the performance of our 3 segments. Retail delivered 3.9% organic growth for the quarter with most lines of business performing well. We had another strong quarter for net new business but realize the impact of moderating rates for most lines as well as slightly lower growth in exposure units. In addition, our organic growth was negatively impacted by over 100 bps resulting from the year-to-date true-up of certain incentive commissions as well as quarterly volatility in bond or nonrecurring revenue. Our team is performing really well and has good momentum going into Q4.

Programs delivered an outstanding result with organic growth of 22.8%. This growth was driven by a number of programs resulting from new business and expansion of existing customers. Our lender-placed business and captives performed very well, and our CAT programs continue to grow. It was another great quarter due to the diversity of our programs.

Wholesale brokerage delivered another good quarter with organic revenue growth of 8.4%. This performance was driven by a combination of net new business and rate increases. Our open brokerage business continued to grow nicely but at a slower pace due to the decline in CAT property rates. Our delegated authority business performed well again this quarter. Personal lines grew nicely driven by California and Texas. We're very pleased that our balanced mix between brokerage and delegated authority continues to drive strong and stable performance.

Now I'll turn it over to Andy to get into more results -- our financial results.

[R. Watts, executive]

Thank you, Powell. Good morning, everyone. I'm going to review our financial results in some additional detail. When we refer to EBITDAC, EBITDAC margin, income before income taxes or diluted net income per share, we're referring to those measures on an adjusted basis. The reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found either in the appendix of this presentation or in the press release we issued yesterday.

We're over on Slide #7. We delivered total revenues of $1.186 billion, growing 11% as compared to the third quarter of 2023. Income before income taxes increased by 13.1%, and EBITDAC grew by 11.9%. Our EBITDAC margin was 34.9%, expanding by 30 basis points over the third quarter of the prior year.

Effective tax rate for the quarter decreased to 24.6% versus the third quarter of the prior year, which was 25.6%. The decrease was driven primarily by certain onetime items in the prior year and the impact of changes in the market value of our company-owned life insurance. Diluted net income per share increased to $0.91 or 12.3%. Our weighted average shares outstanding increased slightly as compared to last year as we continue to prioritize paying down our floating rate debt.

Our dividends paid per share increased by 13% as compared to the third quarter of 2023. Last week, our Board of Directors approved a 15% increase to our projected dividend payments for the fourth quarter of 2024. This represents our 31st consecutive annual increase. Overall, we are very pleased with our performance for the quarter and the strong results our team delivered.

We're over on Slide #8. The Retail segment grew total revenues by 6.5%, with organic growth of 3.9%. The difference between total revenues and organic revenue was driven substantially by acquisition activity over the past year. EBITDAC decreased due to lower contingent and incentive commissions, higher noncash stock-based compensation as well as investments in teammates to drive and support our current and future growth.

We're on Slide #9. Programs had another excellent quarter with total revenues increasing 15.7% and organic growth of 22.8%. Our organic growth was benefited by approximately $15 million associated with onboarding of new customers within our lender-placed business. This revenue will be recognized more evenly throughout 2025.

Growth in total revenues was lower than organic due to net acquisition and disposition activity as well as lower contingent commissions. Our EBITDAC margin expanded by 360 basis points to 48.2%, driven by leveraging of our expense base and the sale of certain claims administration and adjusting services businesses in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Regarding the impact of the hurricanes, there are still a lot of unknowns primarily associated with Hurricane Milton. Our best estimate is that we anticipate recording flood claims processing revenue associated with the recent hurricanes of approximately $12 million to $15 million in the fourth quarter and then $18 million to $22 million in the first half of 2025 with the majority of that revenue being recorded in the first quarter. As of now, we're anticipating claims cost of $5 million to $10 million within our captives associated with Hurricane Milton.

We're over on to Slide #10. Our Wholesale Brokerage segment delivered another great quarter with total revenues increasing 14% and organic growth of 8.4%. The incremental expansion in total revenues in excess of organic was driven by acquisitions completed over the last 12 months and higher contingent commissions associated with finalizing the estimates recorded in the prior year. Our EBITDAC margin increased by 130 basis points to 38.6%, primarily due to higher contingent commissions and leveraging our expense base.

We have a few comments regarding our capital structure, cash generation and outlook. In the third quarter, we paid off $500 million of our inaugural 10-year bonds with the proceeds from our issuance completed in the second quarter of this year. With our continued deleveraging, our balance sheet is in a great position as our gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio on a trailing 12-month basis is in line with our 10-year average. For the first 9 months of this year, we had strong cash generation of over $810 million, increasing our ratio of cash flow from operations as a percentage of revenue to 22.4%.

As it pertains to full year cash generation, we feel really good. We want to highlight that there is U.S. federal tax relief associated with the recent hurricanes. As a result, payments for the third and fourth quarters of this year are permissible to be deferred until the second quarter of next year. Therefore, our full year ratio of cash flow from operations as a percentage of total revenue for 2024 should be in the range of 24% to 26%.

Based on our strong year-to-date performance and taking into consideration the potential impacts from Hurricane Helene and Milton, we anticipate our full year EBITDAC margin will be up at least 100 basis points for 2024 as compared to 2023. With that, let me turn it back over to Powell for closing comments.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Thanks, Andy. Great report. From an economic standpoint, we do not anticipate material changes from what we experienced through the first 9 months of this year. The biggest questions that seem to be on the minds of business leaders here in the states which may impact their level of investment are the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, geopolitical matters and the timing and magnitude of future interest rate reductions and inflation.

Thanks, Andy. Great report. From an economic standpoint, we do not anticipate material changes from what we experienced through the first 9 months of this year. The biggest questions that seem to be on the minds of business leaders here in the states which may impact their level of investment or the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, geopolitical matters and the timing and magnitude of future interest rate reductions and inflation.

From an admitted lines rate perspective, we anticipate rates in the fourth quarter and early '25 to be relatively similar or moderate downward slightly versus the third quarter of this year. For the E&S market, casualty and professional liability should be similar to what was experienced during the third quarter of 2024. For cat property, it will come down to ultimate paid losses associated with Helene and Milton. We anticipate rate decreases from flat to down 10% going into the fourth quarter.

On the M&A front, we continue to feel good about our pipeline, both domestically and internationally. We're always building relationships with a lot of companies, and we have a strong capital position. We will continue our disciplined approach as it's worked very well to help us acquire great companies that enhance our capabilities and drive profitable growth. Lastly, we're excited to have the Quintes team join Brown & Brown and anticipate a closing in the fourth quarter.

As we head into the fourth quarter, our team continues to be well positioned and is leveraging the power of we to win more net new business. We have great momentum across the company and feel good about our prospects for the fourth quarter and finishing the year strong.

With that, we'll turn it back over to Kevin and open up for Q&A.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

[Charles Peters, analyst]

I guess the instruction said I'm supposed to only ask one question, so I guess I'm going to focus my only question on the Retail segment. Powell and Andy ran through some variables that affected the organic in the third quarter. I'm wondering if you could provide some more detail on that. And if there's any read-through we should be thinking about as we look forward.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Greg, and we appreciate your one question. Actually, we're not going to break it down into specific details. But what I would say is, as we said in the organic growth, there is really incentives -- the incentive commissions that are down, and we talked a little bit about nonrecurring onetime revenue that didn't occur like bonds and other related matters.

So from a standpoint of, we feel good about our Retail business, I think that's the important thing. I do not believe that one quarter creates a trend. And so I think you should take from that what you want, but we feel really good about our Retail business.

[R. Watts, executive]

And then, Greg, the other thing just I guess for everybody else to keep in mind, remember, we've said in the past that normally, our business will grow faster -- the Retail business will grow faster in the first half of the year than the second half of the year. Last year was a little bit different just because of the timing of some of bonds and some surety work inside there. But if you look kind of back over historically, it normally grows faster in the first half and second, primarily due to the amount of employee benefits business that is recorded in the first quarter.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs.

[Robert Cox, analyst]

I appreciate the flat to down 10% guide for property CAT rates. I was just curious if the product mix in wholesale is built to sustain nice growth in that type of environment? Or are we going to start seeing that show up a little bit more in the organic?

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

All right, and let me make one other clarifying comment on what I said. I believe that there is a great interest by the risk bearers, particularly domestically to hold rates more closer to flat. Having said that, there are new participants. There are other markets, specifically London, which is very aggressive and that's going to put additional pressure on that.

So having said that, interestingly enough, our Q3 is not an inordinately heavy property quarter. The property is typically in Q1 and Q2 out of hurricane season. So again, it depends on the mix, but we have quite balanced brokerage and binding authority businesses. And what we're talking about is in brokerage, not necessarily in binding.

So what I would say is any time you have a rate decreases, it can. But from a standpoint of we're going to see what kind of discipline in the markets will adhere to in Q4, and what I'm about to say is purely speculative, remember, prior to the storms, we were seeing down 20% and 30%. And so we don't anticipate that, but anything is possible. I think it's a much higher probability is 0 to 10.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

[Elyse Greenspan, analyst]

My question is going back to the Retail segment. So I guess that incentive comp, it sounds like a supplemental commission, which I think you guys started leaving in organic quite like a couple of years ago. So I just want to confirm that.

And then given that the one-off was 100 basis points, I know you guys don't typically like to guide, but Powell, you did say, right, one quarter doesn't make a trend. Is it the right way to think about it that some growth of around 5% is kind of like the baseline for the Q4 and beyond?

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Andy, you want to take that?

[R. Watts, executive]

Yes. So let me hit the first one because that's pretty easy. Yes. So on GSCs, so the guaranteed supplemental commissions and the incentive commissions are inside of organic growth. And as you know, those can move up and down by quarters just like the contingent commissions can adjust themselves inside of there. As you know, we don't give guidance for organic growth for the business.

But I think as we look into at least the fourth quarter, is we would at least think that -- one, we feel really good about our business and the net performance and how we're bringing in new business. A lot of it is going to come down to what happens to rates and then exposure units for the economy. So unless something goes unusual there, we would expect those 2 would be fairly similar to the third quarter.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

[Yaron Kinar, analyst]

So my question is in the programs business. So I think you sold a portion of the captives to a third party and it's now coming back into consolidated through noncontrolling, through NCI. Can you maybe walk us through the impact to the programs segment itself, where that NCI in the programs business, namely, what would the adjusted margin be? And what would the organic growth be for that segment?

[R. Watts, executive]

Yaron, it has no impact on the organic growth or the margins. Remember, the noncontrolling interest is only on a pretax basis allocation over. So we record all of the gross up above and then back out the minority interest below.

[Yaron Kinar, analyst]

Right. So my question would be, what would the impact of the segment be had we adjusted that NCI at the segment level?

[R. Watts, executive]

I guess I would say it's kind of irrelevant because the accounting rules don't allow you to do it anyway. We're following what the rules are. You have to bring it in on a gross basis.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO.

[Michael Zaremski, analyst]

I guess for my one question, I want to focus on the programs segment. Growth has been exceptional for 3 years now in the segment. And I think you gave some color too, that maybe this quarter's outsized growth was coming from catastrophe programs.

But maybe just curious, is there -- when we think of like the wholesale marketplace, we think about that marketplace over long periods of time, typically growing a bit faster than the standard market due to some underlying kind of secular factors. Just curious, in your programs business, is there anything structural or secular? Or you think this is just -- should grow at a multiple of the standard markets over time.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

All right. So let's think about that. Most of our programs -- many, I shouldn't say most, are admitted, okay? So think of that as an extension of the specialty admitted market as opposed to the traditional wholesale or non-admitted market. I think that's an important distinction upfront. That's number one.

Number two, I believe there will continue to be interest and emphasis on the programs business going forward. Depending on what you read and what you believe, the program space is somewhere between $85 billion and $100 billion of premium in the United States. And so we do continue to see that growing nicely into the future.

And there are a number of very talented underwriters that want to join us either from a risk bearer or sometimes from other programs because there is a dynamic environment here, where we have fostered great relationships with our carrier partners. And remember, we are underwriting on behalf of. We are, as we understand it, the largest delegated underwriting authority entity in the United States. And so they place -- carriers place enormous authority in our hands of which we take very seriously.

So is the growth going to continue in the 20% range? That's -- over a long period of time, that's quite high, all right? Let's call it what it is. But what I would say is we believe that the programs space is a very nice consistent grower over a long period of time, and our results would indicate as such.

And it's interesting, because -- and I know this isn't the case with you, Mike, but there are some people out there that really don't, I don't think, fully understand or give us credit for the other than Retail part of our business, which is 40% of the revenue. And as you know, it is performing very nicely. So if you want to look at it on a slightly different perspective, and I know you've already thought about this, but if you look at the performance of wholesale and programs together, that 40% grew at 17.7% in Q3. Pretty impressive.

[Michael Zaremski, analyst]

I mean I do think people -- when they look at programs and wholesale, they do look at Orion as a comp. But can I -- I'll stick to my one question, but a follow-up on your answer on the same topic. Would it be a fair assumption to say that underwriters that come to Brown or just a broker-owned programs business are -- can be compensated more highly than what a carrier can pay given valuation dynamics?

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

You mean to the individual, the compensation? Well, I think the compensation is typically different because it can be cash, a base plus a bonus in many instances, plus equity. So generally, it's -- I think that as a broad statement, you could probably say yes.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

[Mark Hughes, analyst]

Andy, you had mentioned that you generated $15 million in revenue from onboarding new customers and programs, and that would be spread more evenly throughout 2025. Is any of that $15 million nonrecurring? And can you give us a sense of when you say spread more evenly, are there any kind of bumps or tough comps as we think about 2025 in the lender-placed business?

[R. Watts, executive]

So how that works is when we pick up a new account or we have a customer that buys a portfolio, normally, there is a lag of anywhere from 90 to 180 days from the previous servicer of actually sending out notifications. And I think so what happens is you generally will get 2 to 3 quarters of revenue in kind of the first quarter that we onboard them.

Then when it comes around to renewal or the ex date, then that revenue will fall accordingly. And that's really what we're saying, is next year, in the third quarter, we would not anticipate seeing that $15 million but that will be spread out during '25 with most of it in kind of the first half of the year. Does that help kind of explain how that works?

[Mark Hughes, analyst]

It does. The second half of my one question is anything on the advocacy business? Have you seen the Social Security Administration be a little more active on adjudicating claims.

[R. Watts, executive]

No. Everything has pretty similar to what we've been seeing over the last few years. We've got good inflow into our business, but only so much comes out of the back of the funnel.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Alex Scott with Barclays.

[Taylor Scott, analyst]

I wanted to ask you to provide more color on the M&A pipeline, in particular, the comments around interest rates beginning to come down and more interest from private equity players. And could you talk about the potential size of those opportunities and where you're focused on growing inorganically?

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Sure. So as it relates to the first part of the comment, as interest rates -- prior to interest rates going up, there were typically lots of private equity firms that expressed interest. And obviously, they think of it in a little different manner in terms of the way they account for it and look at those investments. Then -- and so there might have been 10 firms that were involved initially, just as an example. And then as the interest rates ticked up, that number being involved might have slowed to 3 firms.

These are very hypothetical situations. And then today, there might be 6 or 7 firms so what I'm trying to give you a sense of is that as interest rates go down, there are more interested parties that are short term in nature in terms of the way they view it, i.e., private equity. As it relates to us, we continue to look both here domestically, which we think there are some very good opportunities for us here in the future and in the international markets that we currently operate in and as evidenced by the fact that we anticipate closing Quintes in the Netherlands this quarter that's another market that we're excited about participating in on a go-forward basis.

So there's not one over another, we stress the importance of cultural fit. We think about capabilities. We think about either enhancing existing capabilities, adding new capabilities or maybe a new geography as long as it's consistent with the core, which is, one, we want it to fit culturally and make sense financially. And two, we like to operate in countries that we understand their governments. There's typically a rule of law, there's generally a stable economy. And we're very pleased with the environment that we're currently operating in.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Meyer Shields with KBW.

[Meyer Shields, analyst]

I just want to go back to the lender-placed insurance in program. Should we think of that $15 million -- I think you said there was a 90 to 120-day lag. So is the $15 million the equivalent of like 3/4 of revenue? Or is that a full year? And did that impact margins in the segment?

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

So let's see. The -- it represents over about 6 months of revenue or just a little bit more on that, Meyer, again, primarily in the first half of 2025. Some of it will reach into the fourth quarter as it kind of comes around just normal lag in processing, taking it over from the previous processor. And then from a full year margin, no, it doesn't impact full year margins. It's just between the quarters.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Grace Carter with Bank of America.

[Grace Carter, analyst]

The 10-Q mentioned some pressure on contingents and retail from higher loss ratios at carrier partners. I think that this is the second quarter in a row that we've seen that. Could you elaborate on which lines caused the pressure in 3Q and how this compares to 2Q? And just kind of any thoughts on whether you think that this will be an issue that recurs moving forward for the next few quarters?

[R. Watts, executive]

Grace, yes, we've been talking about this over probably the last few quarters at least. We saw the starting back in '23. It's primarily on the auto side, both on personal as well as on commercial. I think, as you know well, carriers have been pushing for rate in that space just because of frequency and severity of the claims that are out there, which is putting pressure on overall profitability.

And that -- so that's the main driver. I guess we would say right now, we don't see anything in the marketplace yet that is changing that trend at this stage. So we would continue to expect some pressure on those.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

[Scott Heleniak, analyst]

Just wondering if you could expand on the employee benefits business. I know you gave some commentary on that. It sounds like you're seeing some positive trends on health care. So just wondering if you can just talk about the trends in Q3 versus the first half and just the opportunity for 2025, just organically and through M&A and what you're seeing in that business?

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

So Scott, what I would say is, remember, in the last -- I'm taking you back a little while, but in the last 10 years, we have consciously invested in additional capabilities, which has enabled us as an organization to basically handle any size customer and employee benefits. And so what that means is we can write a start-up. And if they grow one day to 100,000 employees, we can actually handle them at 100,000 employees.

And so remember, our core business is middle market and upper middle market. And the capabilities that we bring to the table, we see lots of opportunities today and in the future and are very excited about the growth opportunities for us. And so it's something that health care -- every CFO wants to talk about their cost of health care. And there are lots of things that we are able to bring to our customers and prospects that will enable them to think differently and potentially realize different and in some instances, outsized positive performance versus what they have been experiencing.

So we are actively looking for additional firms to join the team. But even in light of if we did not do an acquisition with employee benefit capabilities in them in the next 12 months, I don't think that in any way, shape or form changes our opinion on existing business and employee benefits. Andy and I and the entire operating team are very, very pleased and quite honestly, very excited about our ability to write and service customers of all sizes.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Brian Meredith with UBS.

[Brian Meredith, analyst]

Just a quick one for me. Do you anticipate any impact on contingent commissions from Milton and Helene in the fourth quarter?

[R. Watts, executive]

Brian, I think still kind of to be determined. In our earlier comments, we said there's still a lot of moving parts on Milton. We did have some adjustments in the third quarter for Helene, not dissimilar to where we're back in '22 with Ian. We take the best estimate that we can based on what we know at the time. So would it -- would we expect some adjustments in the fourth quarter? Yes, that probably will occur.

Now again, keep in mind that we had -- we did have adjustments positively in Q4 of last year because of low claim activity, so -- and that's primarily in the program space. So you will see probably some meaningful year-over-year change in there. I don't know the magnitude of it right now, just we need some claims development to occur.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Brian, I'd like to just point out two things that might not be as immediately comes to mind. Number one, we saw and continue to see a lot of auto losses in the storms, particularly Helene, but Milton as well. So you've got a car in a garage and flood waters come up and the car dies, okay? So it doesn't work anymore. And I'm not even talking about electric vehicles, I'm just saying that. That's number one.

Number two, depending on where you are, there is a very, very distinct correlation between structures, commercial and residential that are built after 2005 and the amount of loss. So there are new codes, as you know, that were put in place, quite honestly, if you go back to 1992 with Hurricane Andrew. And then every couple of years, it seems that they've kind of upped them.

But if you talk to people in the market about losses on properties, those losses are typically on structures that are there in the '90s, in the '80s and the '70s and the '60s. You get into older homes in the 30s and the 40s, they're not the ones having losses. They're actually very -- they're very solid structures. But it's that kind of middle stuff where the building codes maybe weren't as stringent. So just a little aside, just to kind of give you a little color around your question.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

[Charles Peters, analyst]

Okay. I get my follow-up question. In your commentary on free cash flow, you talked about some deferred tax payments that will help the free cash flow result for '24. Should we anticipate that because you're going to have additional tax payments from '24 and '25 on top of just the '25 that the conversion rate on the '25 free cash flow will be lower?

[R. Watts, executive]

Yes, Greg, that would be correct. And as of right now, the rules by the IRS is those need to be paid in the second quarter. So when you're working on your projections, and you can get a pretty good idea of our taxes, they run somewhere between $90 million to $100 million per quarter in there. So just make sure you put those in the second quarter. So that will pull down our conversion for '25. And that's why we made the comment that we raised the conversion ratio for '24 up because of that deferral.

[Charles Peters, analyst]

And the conversion rate for '24 is raised from -- can you just remind me?

[R. Watts, executive]

Yes, we said 22% to 24% previously. So this will take it up by a couple of percentage points. But when we look at the business and if you recall awhile back when we were talking about conversion ratio, and we talked about 2025, is we said we saw kind of a very clear path back to the 24% to 26% range. That was prior to the storm coming through. But when we look at the overall business itself, and how we're growing the business, the margins that we generate and our free cash flow conversion, we feel really, really good about the business and the trajectory. It's just a timing of items back and forth, sometimes between years. But underlying business, it continues to be very, very strong.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

[Elyse Greenspan, analyst]

My follow-up is actually on investment income. That went up by a good amount in the quarter. Andy, what drove that? And then is that level like -- as rates move, how should we think about I guess, the level of NII that you're expecting in the Q4 and going forward?

[R. Watts, executive]

Sure. So one thing to keep in mind, remember, the $600 million of bonds that we issued back in the second quarter. So we were holding that money until we had paid off the September bonds. So that drove somewhere an incremental $6 million to $7 million of interest income for the quarter. So don't use the $31 million or so that we had in the quarter as a run rate, it will definitely come back down in the second quarter and then -- or excuse me, in the fourth quarter...

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

I'd like to clarify something. Elyse, I would like to clarify something that you asked earlier. And you're correct in saying that we do not give organic growth guidance as you know. However, what we said was you had asked about a number in Q4. And what Andy and I were implying or trying to say was, if you look at the performance in Q3 and you note the adjustments that we made, we believe that, that is a good starting place for Q4. I wanted to make sure that was clear for you. Does that make sense?

[Elyse Greenspan, analyst]

Yes. So the 3.9% plus the 100 basis points or around 5% is the Q4 starting point for Retail.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

I was going to allow you to do the math, and we don't give guidance, but I just wanted to clarify.

[Elyse Greenspan, analyst]

Okay. Got it.

[R. Watts, executive]

And then Elyse, just kind of rounding out on the net investment income because I think it's probably also important that we talk about kind of the other side of that. And again, you can kind of get a feel for -- in modeling, if rates drop by 1%, an idea as to what it could mean on the net investment income. Now again, keep in mind that as we continue to grow as an organization, there's more fiduciary cash. So you're not going to see it on an exact ratio if you do that, right? Because you got to assume that fiduciary assets will continue to grow.

But then also keep in mind on the other side of that is our floating rate debt. So as an organization, we built our capital structure to have somewhere around 25% of our debt to be floating rate. It's been extremely, extremely beneficial for creating shareholder value over many years. And so when we -- at the end of 9/30, we had just under $800 million on floating rate debt. So just make sure you grab that on the other side of the equation, if you're doing your ups and downs on interest, okay?

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

[Mark Hughes, analyst]

You mentioned margin impact from the investment in teammates. Given that the M&A market has been, at least in Q3, your activity was a little bit lower. Is that a deliberate plan to spend more money on teammates? Or was that more opportunistic?

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

I look at it as more opportunistic, Mark. And the reason I say that is when we find the right people, we're going to invest in them. And so that's why I always try to say that 1 quarter or -- doesn't make a trend. And when we make those investments, we fully anticipate that we will grow into those investments in the coming quarters and years ahead.

And so if it were something very significant in terms of a number, we would call it out and talk to you about it. But from this standpoint, we -- this is what I call normal opportunistic investing. We're not going to beat some drum and say we've got some program. It's not like that. We're always looking for good people. We believe that culturally, we will attract a certain group of people that would like to work for a competitive, collaborative, high-performing sales and service organization. But there's not something -- there's not some secret initiative going on. That's -- I don't want to give you that impression.

[Operator]

Our last question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO.

[Michael Zaremski, analyst]

Great. Just a follow-up on kind of teasing out what you all are seeing or projecting on the casualty side in terms of pricing power trends? I know that -- I think last quarter, you all and maybe many others thought that pricing would move up a bit. Has that changed at all? And I don't know if you want to bifurcate between E&S or admitted versus non-admitted.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Sure. All right. So Mike, number one, if you remember, in the past, I have sort of said in my career, which is only back to 1990 in the insurance business, there's always been an underlying tone that casualty has been underpriced, but I don't think there's been a discipline around pricing it by the carriers. Today, that seems to be different. So there seems to be a discipline around that.

And so I believe it's both in the primary and the excess, I believe it's also in admitted and non-admitted. So it's not something that we are bifurcating that you're seeing more so in one versus the other. That's not the case.

And so I think that we're going to continue to see rate pressure on casualty, so general liability, excess liability and as Andy said earlier, in automobile, both commercial and personal auto. For the time being, I don't see that changing. Depending on the carrier, they're going to tell you different trends they're seeing in their books. But yes, there continues to be pressure on all of those segments.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Q&A portion of today's call. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Powell for any closing remarks.

[J. Powell Brown, executive]

Sure. Thanks, Kevin. We really appreciate everybody's time today. We are very pleased with the performance in Q3. We're excited about Q4, ending the year strong and going into 2025. You all have a wonderful day. Thank you for your time.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.