Brunswick Corp

NYSE:BC

Earnings Call Analysis

Brunswick Delivers Robust 2023 Results

In 2023, Brunswick Corporation achieved the second-highest sales and adjusted EPS in its history, with $6.4 billion in net sales and $8.80 adjusted EPS, slightly below guidance due to softening wholesale ordering patterns. However, diligent cash generation efforts led to a remarkable free cash flow of $473 million with a full-year conversion of 76%. Mercury Marine solidified market share, gaining 150 basis points in U.S. retail for outboard engines over 30 horsepower. The fourth quarter experienced a 14% decrease in net sales and a 27% drop in adjusted EPS compared to a record Q4 in 2022, but saw a record Q4 free cash flow of $242 million, increasing by 25% from the previous year. Despite cautious OEM orders, the year's total performance remained strong, with premium products and digital sales bolstering the company's resilience.

Financial Forecast Suggests Stable Growth Amidst Market Challenges

The company is navigating a challenging landscape as it exits 2023, with market share gains juxtaposed against a decline in engine demand due to reduced OEM production levels. Despite this, they've successfully sustained consistency in their high-margin products business, notably growing sales by 3% compared to the previous year, and have managed to curb operating expenses to partially offset decreased sales. However, the Navico Group experienced a 17% sales drop, primarily due to weaker marine OEM orders, which also led to shrinking segment operating margins. Looking towards 2024, the company presents an optimistic, albeit cautious, outlook, anticipating revenues of $6 billion to $6.2 billion, adjusted operating margins of 12% to 13%, and an adjusted EPS of $7 to $8. They are also expecting to generate over $350 million in free cash flow, reflecting confidence in continued shareholder returns amid a fluid economic context.

Recognition and Strategic Victories Bolster Company Reputation

The company's ingenuity and culture have been celebrated with 115 major awards in 2023, a testament to their market-leading innovation and dedicated workforce. Heading into early 2024, this trend continues, with new product accolades such as the NMMA Innovation Award and European Power Boat of the Year marking successful leaps in product development. These achievements not only underline the company’s industry dominance but also hint at the strategic value placed on launching exceptional products, which may further solidify their market position and offer assurance to investors about the company's future trajectory.

Strengthened Market Position Amid Thin Margins

The company has shown resilience in maintaining a robust retail momentum, with new boat retail sales up approximately 10% from the previous year, reflecting a robust consumer demand that could bolster earnings. These positive retail trends suggest that, despite a forecasted mid-single-digit decline in annual sales, there exists the potential for the company to exceed expectations if market conditions provide a tailwind. Additionally, Navico's promising outlook in some electronics subsegments and new product flow align with the company's strategic direction. The business has weathered a market downturn, but its alignment with emerging demands and planned cost reduction measures positions it for prospective margin expansion and positive future performance.

Looking Forward: Prospects of Margin Expansion and Product Impact

Navico contributes around 10% to the company's total margin, with expectations for this to increase in 2024. This outlook, coupled with a recalibrated vision for growth, indicates a strategic alignment that aims to retain and scale profit margins, especially as market conditions show signs of improvement.

Growth in Repower Market Share Signals Competitive Edge

Impressively, the company gained 500 basis points in repower market share over the year, signifying substantial progress in a segment where there’s still potential for expansion. This increase particularly strengthens their position within the retail dealer market, where profit margins are generally higher than OEM, hinting at an incremental positive influence on their operating margins. This trend is not limited to the U.S. market but extends internationally, enhancing the company’s global footprint and competitive edge.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good morning. Welcome to Brunswick Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. Today's meeting will be recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to introduce Neha Clark, Senior Vice President, Enterprise Finance, Brunswick Corporation. Thank you. You may begin.

[Neha Clark, executive]

Good morning. and thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning are Dave Foulkes, Brunswick's CEO; and Ryan Gwillim, CFO. Before we begin with our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that during this call, our comments will include certain forward-looking statements about future results. Please keep in mind that our actual results could differ materially from these expectations. For details on these factors to consider, please refer to our recent SEC filings and today's press release. All of these documents are available on our website at brunswick.com.

During our presentation, we will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial information. Reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures are provided in the appendix to this presentation and the reconciliation sections of the unaudited consolidated financial statements accompanying today's results. I will now turn the call over to Dave.

[David Foulkes, executive]

Thanks, Neha, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick delivered another successful year in which we achieved the second highest sales and adjusted earnings per share in company history despite market headwinds. We also continued to gain market share increase our operational efficiency, launch exceptional new products, actively controlled costs and progress our strategic initiatives, including our ACES strategy.

Our full year net sales of $6.4 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $8.80 was slightly below our guidance range as wholesale customer ordering patterns softened late in the year. However, our diligent focus on cash generation resulted in outstanding free cash flow of $473 million and full year free cash flow conversion of 76%.

In addition, we executed $275 million of share repurchases. Mercury Marine has continued to capture solid market share with full year U.S. outboard retail share up 50 basis points versus prior year. 2023 U.S. new bulk market unit retail sales are anticipated to finish in line with our estimates of down mid- to high single digits, with Brunswick brands outperforming the market in many segments.

As we moved out of the core 2023 retail selling season, we work closely with our marine channel partners to actively manage Oakfield inventory levels, and we closed the year with 36.7 weeks on hand in the U.S. which is in line with our target and with historical norms.

I'll now turn to some of the segment highlights for the quarter and full year. Our Propulsion business finished its second best year on record, leveraging more exciting new products, market share gains and operational efficiencies to deliver consistent year-over-year operating margins despite slightly lower sales and earnings versus the historical highs in 2022. For the full year, Mercury gained 150 basis points of overall U.S. retail share for outboard engines over 30 horsepower, which account for the majority of Mercury's investment in recent years.

In addition, over 5,000 [indiscernible] electric outboards were produced following the launch of the first model in early 2023. Mercury saw a slowing of OEM off-season orders as the OEMs scale back [indiscernible] production to control field inventory going into the new year. We expect OEMs to remain cautious entering the first quarter of 2024 as they assess consumer sentiment at early season boat shows and monitor the macro environment.

Our engine parts and accessories business demonstrated steady performance in the quarter, reflecting a continued improving sequential trend. Sales in the products portion of the business were up versus prior year for the second consecutive quarter and our distribution business was only down slightly, with sequential improvement from the previous quarter.

Overall segment sales were up 22% on a full year basis versus 2019. Navico Group had a solid finish to the year. as an increased flow of new products and continued focus on cost control, business integration and complexity reduction helped offset a softer marine OEM market in the quarter and the considerably slower RV manufacturing environment.

Finally, our Boat business delivered sales and earnings in the quarter, consistent with expectations, while continuing to ensure healthy pipeline inventory levels entering 2024. Strong demand for premium products, together with market share gains in many categories, is helping to provide a stable baseline for 2024. Freedom Boat Club continues to grow and now has more than 410 locations. Members completed approximately 600,000 trips in 2023, demonstrating the productivity of the model.

Shifting to external factors now. U.S. employment remains at healthy levels, with inflation continuing to stabilize. The cadence of Fed and global central bank interest rate reductions will continue to be an important factor in the coming months. Overall, boat retail sales are trending slightly above 2023, but unit sales in the month of January are always a small contribution to the year. Global early season boat shows are generally encouraging with good traffic interested buyers and healthy lead generation. Normalized inventory levels are allowing consumers to shop for the models of their choice and incentives continue to be important in stimulating interest and assisting dealers in closing sales.

Our boat engine and technology brands continued to perform well, with Mercury recording outboard share gains at the important Dusseldorf Boat Show, achieving overall share of 48%. [indiscernible] entered 2024 with healthy inventory and are cautious in their ordering entering the new year as they closely monitor boat shows in retail at the start of the season as well as the economic trajectory.

We are pleased with interest in the recently launched Brunswick Retail finance program with more than 25% of Brunswick boat dealers having already enrolled. The program provides an additional way to stimulate demand and convert leads with an efficient online consumer finance approval process and the ability to introduce promotional financing. In addition, our investments in digital platforms continue to drive benefits across our brands with more than 1/3 of Boat Group sales digitally assisted in 2023.

As expected, both OEMs are carefully controlling bulk production rates to align with anticipated retail in 2024 and resulting in lower order rates for Mercury engines and Navico Group OEM products. The softness continues to be more prevalent in value products and low to mid horsepower outboard engines with premium product production and demand remaining more solid.

Shifting now to a global view of revenue in the quarter. Overall, we saw a 15% sales decline on a constant currency basis, excluding acquisitions. On a full year basis, the U.S. market declined mid-single digits versus 2022, roughly in line with Europe and Asia Pacific. U.S. [ new boat ] industry retail was slightly down in the fourth quarter versus 2022, with preliminary full year retail in line with expectations of down approximately 6% versus 2022.

Overall, for the full year, Brunswick performed slightly better than the industry. Picking up share, particularly through strong performance by our pontoon, premium fiberglass and tow brands, supported by planned promotions and marketing on select product lines. Outboard engine industry retail units turned positive this period with the fourth quarter up 1% versus prior year, bringing full year unit retail to down 2%.

Mercury continues to outperform the industry with fourth quarter share gains of 50 basis points in greater than 30-horsepower categories. As we actively manage both pipelines, we ended with inventory in line with expectations and historical norms with U.S. weeks on hand at 36.7 weeks and 14,000 units versus 16,000 units in 2019. International bulk pipelines were slightly higher, which is normally the case. I'll now turn the call over to Ryan to provide additional comments on our financial performance and outlook.

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Thanks, Dave, and good morning, everyone. Brunswick delivered a solid fourth quarter despite softer wholesale demand across our businesses. When compared to an extremely strong fourth quarter of 2022, net sales in the quarter were down 14% and adjusted EPS of $1.45 decreased 27%. However, we delivered a record Q4 free cash flow of $242 million, a 25% increase over prior year, as we continue to focus the enterprise on generating cash and minimizing working capital usage.

Sales were below prior year as the impact of cautious wholesale ordering patterns by dealers, OEMs and retailers, coupled with higher discounts in select segments was only partially offset by successful new product momentum, positive mix and pricing implemented in previous quarters. Operating earnings and margin declined versus a record fourth quarter 2022, resulting from the impact of lower net sales and prudent spending on growth initiatives, partially offset by ongoing cost containment efforts.

For the full year, we delivered the second highest sales and adjusted EPS in Brunswick's history just behind our 2022 performance. Our strong free cash flow of $473 million resulted in second half free cash flow conversion of 143%, again, reflecting our continued focus on driving cash in this challenging market.

Now we'll look at each reporting segment, starting with our propulsion business. Revenue was down 12% versus the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily due to cautious OEM ordering patterns, partially offset by continued market share gains in outboard engines and the acquisition of [ Flight Board ] completed earlier in the year. Operating margins increased by 110 basis points versus Q4 2022, and as the impact of the sales declines and higher labor inflation costs were more than offset by cost control and reduced material inflation.

As Dave mentioned earlier, as we exit 2023 and into 2024, we anticipate that we will continue to maintain our progressive market share gains, but that our propulsion business will be impacted by additional reductions in both OEM production levels that may not abate until the start of the primary retail selling season in 2024. This will enable us to sell more engines into the dealer channel, but the overall impact will still be a decrease in overall market demand for engines.

The engine parts and accessories business continued to improve sequentially throughout the year with Q4 sales essentially flat versus 2022. The high-margin products business grew sales by 3% versus prior year, while distribution sales were down 4% as trends have continued to improve in both businesses from early 2023.

Segment operating earnings and margins decreased in the quarter with a slight net sales decline and higher manufacturing costs more than offsetting the impact of pricing and lower operating expenses versus prior year.

Navico Group reported a 17% decrease in sales as the business experienced softer marine OEM orders and the continued weak RV manufacturing environment in the quarter. Segment operating margins decreased in the quarter, primarily as a result of the net sales decline, which more than offset the benefit of lower operating expenses.

Despite an overall challenging 2023, Navico continues to make strides against the strategic priorities, including removing almost $20 million of structural costs while improving its product development process and continuing to invest in market-leading technologies and expand its customer base for integrated and connected solutions.

Finally, our Boat business delivered sales and earnings in the quarter consistent with expectations while continuing to ensure healthy pipeline inventory levels as we enter 2024. Sales were down 22% versus Q4 of 2022 and but sales in our more premium saltwater fish segment, which includes Boston Whaler, grew 5% year-over-year.

Adjusted operating margins and earnings were down primarily due to the lower sales partially offset by focused cost reduction activities. [indiscernible] Club, which is included in business acceleration, had another solid quarter, contributing approximately 8% of the Boat segment's revenue during the quarter while seeing very steady membership levels despite the macroeconomic uncertainty.

We successfully executed our capital strategy in 2023, ending the year with $480 million of cash while funding strategic growth in our businesses and returning capital to shareholders. We deployed $289 million for capital expenditures on exciting new products and growth projects across our businesses, which we believe will drive future revenue and earnings growth.

In addition, as Dave mentioned, we took advantage of market and Brunswick's share value dislocation, repurchasing $275 million of our shares representing approximately 3.5 million shares or 5% of the company. We also increased our dividend for the 11th consecutive year.

Finally, our investment-grade credit rating remains strong, reflecting a healthy balance sheet and net leverage of 1.8x. We will refinance our 2024 notes during the first half of this year, with our strong liquidity and cash flow generation capabilities, continuing to provide investment and spending flexibility across the enterprise.

2024 has the potential to be a year of steadily easing financial conditions. And while we entered the year with a cautious outlook, particularly on the first quarter, we remain extremely focused on driving earnings while delivering steady free cash flow and resilient EPS, which we believe will result in continued strong shareholder returns.

Our disciplined pipeline management, strong operational performance and continued investment in new products and growth, coupled with prudent cost containment actions and a thoughtful capital strategy, provide the necessary controllable levers in this uncertain consumer and business environment. For fiscal 2024, we anticipate revenue of between $6 billion and $6.2 billion, adjusted operating margins of between 12% and 13% and adjusted EPS in the range of $7 to $8.

We continue to see positive free cash flow conversion and working capital trends and anticipate generating more than $350 million of free cash flow for the year. Please see the appendix for additional guidance regarding anticipated segment metrics. We thought it would also be useful to provide a short walk from our 2023 adjusted EPS to our 2024 guidance, along with providing more insight on our planned 2024 OpEx.

The main driver of the 2024 EPS reduction is the absence of pipeline fill across our business units. As our channel inventory levels are fresh and at appropriate levels to start the season. A little more than half of the impact relates to our propulsion business as they continue to fill OEM and dealer pipelines well into 2023 with the remainder split evenly between our Boat Group and Navico. If retail demand exceeds our expectations, we anticipate that dealers and retailers will reorder product more consistent with historical patterns, which will provide a potential benefit later in 2024 or into 2025.

We then have approximately $0.50 of impact from increased tariffs, interest expense and a slightly higher tax rate. Although these 3 items are primarily uncontrollable, we will do our best to mitigate and minimize these expenses as we move throughout the year.

Lastly, we will continue to take actions to rightsize our enterprise cost structure. Although OpEx will increase slightly year-over-year, the increase is primarily related to the Flight Board and Freedom Boat Club acquisitions from 2023 and together with normal cost inflation and resetting variable compensation back to target levels. We are countering these items by planning to remove no less than $40 million of structural costs across the enterprise.

Countering these headwinds are several tailwinds mostly within our control. We anticipate continuing to take market share in outboard engines, especially in high horsepower categories while also taking share in premium boat categories and certain marine electronic categories where new products will drive growth. We also plan to be aggressive with share repurchases, especially early in the year.

I will wrap up the financial update by sharing some P&L, cash flow and other capital strategy assumptions for the year. First, we expect a modest working capital usage for the year, reflecting our continued enterprise goal of lowering inventory levels to match anticipated sales while generating cash. Our slightly higher depreciation versus prior year reflects the additional capital invested in our businesses in recent years with acquisition amortization, which we exclude from our adjusted results being similar to prior year.

It's been a few years since we've had to discuss tariffs, but despite a favorable exemption extension into the spring, we anticipate paying $15 million more tariffs versus 2023. These tariffs are primarily related to components sourced from China using our primary outboard manufacturing facility in [ Fond du Lac ], Wisconsin, along with the importation of 40- to 60-horsepower engines produced at our Suzhou, China assembly plant.

Lastly, our tax department does an outstanding job of prudently and appropriately minimizing our tax footprint and we anticipate a 23% effective tax rate on adjusted earnings for 2024, which is slightly higher than 2023. And finally, this page shows several capital strategy and other financial assumptions as we begin the year.

On capital strategy, we anticipate being very accurate share repurchases, as I just mentioned. And to support this effort earlier this week, our Board of Directors approved a fresh share repurchase authorization of $500 million, which we plan to put to good use. We will have a higher net interest expense in 2024, resulting from the eventual refinancing of the 2024 notes, but are also planning $100 million of debt reduction to minimize the impact.

We also anticipate increasing our dividend in February for the 12th straight year. On FX, we currently think that rates will have a neutral to slightly negative impact on full year earnings but this can obviously swing either way, predominantly on the strength of the U.S. dollar versus the euro and a few other currencies used by our global businesses.

Finally, you'll notice a reduction in planned CapEx for the year. Although we plan to continue funding many projects and investments in products and technology for future growth, we are in harvest phase of many of our larger products from recent years, and plan to be able to scale back spending slightly without sacrificing any future growth plans. I will now pass the call back over to Dave for concluding remarks.

[David Foulkes, executive]

Thanks, Ryan. With field inventory at normalized levels and consumers having their choice of products, it is vital to Brunswick continues to differentiate through a rapid flow of exciting new products and technology. And in just the first few weeks of 2024, Brunswick launched over 15 new products across its brands and businesses.

In January, we again participated in the Consumer Electronics Show, where we launched 2 higher horsepower models in the Mercury p Avatar ] electric outboard liner, which now contains 5 models in total. Demand for [ Avatar ] remains solid, with nearly 60% of shipments in 2023 going to Europe. [indiscernible] introduced the new SDX 270 and 270 Silk model with next-generation features, styling and comfort. The SDX serve is the first model in the SDX line to feature the mercury Bravo Four S forward-facing drive and an intuitive wakesurfing control system designed jointly by Mercury Marine and Navico Group.

Brunswick [ Printcraft, Harris and Lowe ] Brands also introduced multiple new products at early season shows featuring Mercury Marine and Navico Group technology. We are also very excited about the new segment-leading Simrad NSX Ultra wise, the industry's first full functionality, high-definition multifunction display, which features a 16: 9 screen aspect ratio and showcases the seamless interface of the latest Simrad Android operating system. And finally, Freedom Boat Club continues to grow organically and through acquisition, including through the acquisitions of its Savanna and Hilton Head franchise territories in late 2023 and 2 new franchise locations in Spain already announced in 2024.

Before we conclude, I'm thrilled to highlight the exceptional accomplishments of our teams from across the enterprise that were recognized with a record high number of awards in 2023 and continue to be recognized in early 2024. We wrapped 2023 with 115 major awards for our products, technology, people and culture. And just in early 2024, the new Harris 250 [indiscernible] on won the NMMA Innovation Award of the Minneapolis Boat Show, the new Sea Ray 260 SLX on European Power Boat of the Year, and the [indiscernible] 13 on Boating Magazine, Boat of the Year in its category.

In addition, Brunswick's products and teams are nominated for multiple awards at the upcoming Miami Boat Show. Thank you again to all our talented Brunswick employees who make these prestigious awards possible, which leads me to remind you to join us at our investor and analyst event on Feb 15, 2024 at the Miami International Boat Show, but we look forward to hosting you to see the latest products and technologies from across our brands and businesses as well as meet with members of our management team. Thank you for joining the call. That concludes our prepared remarks. We'll now open the line for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Matthew Boss with JPMorgan.

[Matthew Boss, analyst]

So Dave, maybe could you help rank the top line drivers by segment and just visibility today to improvement as the year progresses, if we could just bridge the delta between the more than 20% decline expected in the first quarter to the full year guide of down mid-single digits. I think that would be really helpful.

[David Foulkes, executive]

Yes. Yes, I think the fact is it's really similar across all of our business to some extent. And it's really the fact that we saw in particularly the December of the fourth quarter reduced demand from marine OEMs and more production shutdowns, which had an impact on our Mercury wholesale orders and Navico Group wholesale orders. As well as, of course, we reduced production to meet our year-end targets for boat inventory and get to that 37 weeks on hand.

So the first quarter, we anticipate continued cautious ordering across wholesale by Mercury's OEM customers, which is about kind of 80% of their sales and Navico Group's OEM customer -- marine customers, which is about 30% of their sales. And we obviously will be continuing to be -- to meter our own bulk production during that period. But we anticipate based on early season retail -- confirmed I think [indiscernible] at least is in retail now is that orders will begin to pick up to more normalized levels as we enter the main selling season.

In Q1, as we get to the end of Q1, we're seeing new boat retail up about 10% versus last year, which is an encouraging sign. So I would say that the factors really affect all of our divisions somewhat similar. And it is the production and wholesale order and getting back to more normalized levels in Q2 forward.

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

And Matt, it's Ryan. Just a reminder, Q1 of 2023 we were very much still filling pipelines and just about all engine categories and even boats, if you remember. So it is a more challenging comparison. And I would -- if you're modeling it out, the first quarter of 2024, should look relatively similar to the fourth quarter of '23, as Dave mentioned.

[Matthew Boss, analyst]

Great. And then maybe just a follow-up, Ryan. As we consider the -- I think it's roughly 12% operating margin at the lower end of this year's guide is maybe a potential floor. Could you just elaborate on the $40 million structural cost savings that you cited in your remarks? Where in the organization that you found efficiencies? And are there further opportunities that you see for potentially additional savings?

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Yes, Matthew, I mean, this is a cross enterprise project that we're undertaking. And frankly, it's just to rightsize the overall cost structure of the enterprise. If you think about where our strategic plan and our targets are, we're still very confident in those. But getting there to 2027 is going to take a little bit. The shape of that is kind of unfolding as we'd expect, which is '24 being a little bit more muted and then picking back up in the out years. We just need to make sure that our cost structure matches that same shape.

[David Foulkes, executive]

Those actions are in-flight actions if we need to find more, we always, by the way.

[Operator]

Our next question is from James Hardiman with Citi.

[James Hardiman, analyst]

So I want to talk about inventory. You guys have said that you feel pretty good about where you sit today. Seems like a lot of other players in the industry are speaking to inventories being too high. I guess, what do you think the difference is there? Do you think you've controlled your own inventories better than maybe some other OEMs? And does it matter if that's the case that you're ultimately competing with those that haven't? And I guess how do we think about inventory to finish 2024, whether in terms of units or weeks on hand?

[David Foulkes, executive]

James, thank you for the question. Yes, we did see a lot of commentary about other OEMs noting higher than desired inventory levels. We are very comfortable with our inventory levels. I think we explained that we had put a lot of effort into managing inventory in the back half of the year. We did see some relatively abrupt changes in production patterns in December from some of Mercury's OEM customers.

Our production did not change as abruptly because we began to, I think, metered down somewhat earlier. And yes, honestly, despite the commentary, yes, we feel extremely good about our inventory levels. Does it matter what the industry does? Well, it makes it difficult -- more difficult for us to predict Mercury and Navico Group wholesale sales because we tend to experience more kind of choppy ordering patterns in the back half of Q4, and we may be the same in the first half of Q1.

But I feel like based on our retail performance in January, which you know is a very small month, but still somewhat encouraging, I don't think we're suffering. I think we have the right level of retail incentives, dealer incentives to stimulate demand and I think we have the right inventory level. So I'm very comfortable with where we are.

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

And then the last part of your question was how do you think you'll end '24? The plan is to have inventory levels below in 2023, end of year levels by the end of this year. Not dramatically, but down a handful of weeks on hand. If retail continues to be a little bit outpacing maybe our expectations, then we can maneuver that a little bit. But right now, the plan would be a few weeks of -- weeks on hand, lower at the end of '24 than '23.

[James Hardiman, analyst]

Got it. Really helpful. And then as we sort of contemplate this 2024 guidance, it sits somewhere between when you gave us the recession scenarios, sort of the modest and the severe recession. Despite not being in a recession, and I don't point that out to sort of knock your projections 2 years ago.

But I guess maybe speak to what the divergence is, I guess, as it occurs to me back then, we weren't necessarily thinking that the macro weakness would be as interest rate driven as it appears to have been. Maybe speak to that. And I guess what I'm really trying to figure out is if rates, in fact, do come down starting this year, is there an opportunity for a snapback maybe more quickly than we would otherwise see in previous sort of post recession scenario?

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Yes, James, maybe I'll start with that and then Dave can fill in. Yes, the -- it's always interesting when you come out with a downside scenario, you've got to live with it, kind of perpetuity. But we knew that we would get this question, obviously, on the call this morning. The difference really is kind of 2 things.

One is the starting point. If you remember, this was a 1 year scenario that we came out with in 2022. At a time where we were coming off a kind of a $10 EPS number or had a $10 budget, excuse me, for 2022 EPS. And we are anticipating what would happen if the world dropped off in 1 year. That year also had some pipeline fill in it, where Boat group, although the retail sales had dropped off, I think we said 30% to 35% at retail that the wholesale would actually hold in a little better. This -- as we sit today, the real difference is to, one, that there is no pipeline refill remaining really in boats or engines. But two, really, the P&A businesses as a whole, they haven't performed any different than we anticipated, but they have performed a little different from a starting point.

If you remember, really peak P&A season was end of '21 and into '22. And despite still having a CAGR of kind of 8%, 9% over the last 5 years, that business has come off a little bit from a high really those 2 years that we gave the downside scenario. So if you take the midpoint of our range kind of a $750 million -- you probably got a little bit of goodness on propulsion, a little trailing on P&A. Shares are obviously a good guy because we've been buying back a little more. And then the last thing I'd say as an investment really in the ACES, in all of our ACES categories that has driven about maybe $0.40, $0.50 of costs, but we're obviously happy to do that. So that's really the difference.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Mike Swartz with Truist Securities.

[Michael Swartz, analyst]

Just wanted to touch on the propulsion guidance and more specifically, just the margin assumptions. It looks like you're kind of embedding in that guidance, about 16% margins, which is a step down of about 200 basis points. From the commentary you provided on the call, it sounds like mix, both product mix and channel mix should be positive. Just help us walk through how you get to that 200 basis point decline.

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Yes, then again, this is one that we kind of knew would give folks attention. It really starts with absorption just due to lower volume. If you look on the EPS bridge, you noted the pipeline -- the lack of pipeline fill being a big driver on EPS. And a chunk of that is obviously volume and sales related, but that also hurts absorption in the facilities, certainly in the [indiscernible] facility with lower volume. So absorption is certainly the #1. Tariffs is #2, about $15 million more of tariffs, and that just goes right to COGS. And we're doing our best to offset it by doing other things and where we do final assembly, but it's still $15 million is hard to cover.

And then if we are in a position where input costs, material and labor are elevated a little bit over prior year, not a terrible amount but our ability to price over that, although positive -- so price PNOC, price over input cost is so positive the spread there, the available price over input cost is not as large. So the goodness is not as large. Those 3 things are really the primary drivers and they're really all in gross margin.

I would note that as per usual, Mercury does a fantastic job of moderating their cost structure and their OpEx is targeted to be relatively flat year-over-year, and that's inclusive absorbing all the OpEx from [indiscernible], which is the October acquisition, obviously, and the resetting of comp back to target levels.

[Michael Swartz, analyst]

Okay. That's helpful. And maybe just a second question. As we think about the lower end of the earnings range and the higher end of the range, I mean maybe walk us through the big 4 or 5 factors driving that. How do you get to the top end, how do you get to the bottom end?

[David Foulkes, executive]

I think, Mike, just one addition to the previous point is that the absorption issue really over-indexes towards Q1 because we don't want to get rid of people -- line operators in Q1 that we're going to need in Q2. So there's a kind of compounding effect in Q1 that will normalize through the other quarters in the year.

In terms of top bottom of the range, I think bottom of the range would have to be further macro weakness than we anticipate. If retail sales hang in at roughly flat to last year, it's difficult to see the bottom of [indiscernible]. We don't need a lot of kind of market tailwinds to get above the midpoint really. I think our assumption of wholesale boat units actually production going down this year in terms of being about 1,000 units below retail is probably a bit on the pessimistic side.

And then especially with the cost reductions that we will implement in any market scenario that we've already described, I think that will help our leverage on particularly benefit. So I would say downside would have to be additional macro risk, some kind. Upside is a bit better tailwind from the market.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley.

[Megan Christine Alexander, analyst]

I don't want to [ belabor ] it, but just did have a follow-up on that propulsion margin answer, if I could. Everything you said makes sense. But if I sit here and take kind of that $15 million tariff out, just to kind of look apples-to-apples versus last year, I'm still getting somewhere in the range of 45%-ish decremental margins. I think you've historically kind of talked about volume deleverage in the 20% to 30% range. So can you just maybe help us understand the discrepancy there because it just seems pretty large.

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Yes. Megan, you're right. There's -- the absorption hit is real. I mean it's a -- coming off of a first and second quarter where we were running about as hard as we could in that facility and really into the third quarter and then back to scaling it back to kind of normal production levels for this year.

I mean we're taking -- calling a little bit more than 10% of production out of Fond du Lac here year-over-year, it becomes a more material piece of the puzzle. And as Dave said, don't sleep a little bit on the input costs. And again, it's a good story that PNOC is positive. But in past years, that spread would have been -- it could have been $50 million, $60 million, $70 million, and this year, it's half of that.

So the ability for us to price over some of the input cost inflation is a bit challenging. And lastly, I would just tell you the guidance is -- we're -- some of these are estimates. Obviously, if the world looks a little better, I think we all know that Mercury can outperform that margin guidance. But as we sit today, I think it's a kind of middle of the road margin of where we think we can land the year.

[Megan Christine Alexander, analyst]

Okay. That's helpful. And then maybe just another follow-up. Would you be able to quantify maybe what the pipeline fill was last year? And more of what's just a hard compare in the first quarter versus what you've embedded in terms of what you're seeing as it relates to the cautious wholesale ordering patterns, just particularly on propulsion as we're trying to get a sense for how to think about the cadence of that segment, in particular, beyond the first quarter?

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Yes. So if you think that whole -- the production levels at Fond du Lac will be down kind of 10-ish percent year-over-year, a lot of that is going to be in the first and second quarter of the year. And most of that is kind of 5 to -- it's below 300 horsepower. There's really no shortage of 300 and above. So most of that 10% would be the first quarter and a little bit in the second.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Craig Kennison with Baird.

[Craig Kennison, analyst]

It's been a helpful call. As always, I guess I wanted to dig into Navico a bit. I think we're coming on the 3-year anniversary this summer of that transaction. And I guess, Dave, I'd be curious to get your take on what has gone well and what has not gone so well?

[David Foulkes, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Craig. Yes, going up on the 3-year anniversary. So I think what's gone well is continued belief that Navico is absolutely the right asset for us to own. There was nothing like it in the marketplace, and there still isn't anything like it in the marketplace. It plays very strongly to our move really from a boat company to technology company. It really has some of the best technology assets in the business. And despite the fact that the financial performance is not what we'd originally anticipated at this time.

I would say there are several factors covering that, that I'll talk about in a second, is actually doing well -- extremely well in a lot of those subsegments of electronics. It continues to do well in producing unique solutions that nobody else can produce like the [indiscernible] system. We're beginning to see a flow of new products that reflect our directions like the ultrawide, which is, I mean, extraordinarily well received and other things that will be coming out late in the year.

So I think the asset is the right asset for us. We just brought it ahead of a market downturn. One of the things, I guess, is if you think about Navico's kind of mix, it's about kind of 30% Marine OEM, 10% to 12% probably in specialty vehicles and a little bit less than 60% aftermarket. I think what we did not foresee a couple of things we didn't foresee really were the destocking that is experienced over the past several years that we think is essentially troughed now. And also the really severe decline in RV manufacturing that it continues to experience.

So those are the things that we have had to combat. Now I would tell you that Navico was about 10% of total margin 2023. We expect that margin to expand in 2024 as a combination of new products, takes hold and also as the full year effect of cost reductions take hold. So I would say positives are strategic benefit and new products coming out. Some of the negatives are more associated with how the markets perform generally, including destocking in the past 2, 3 years.

[Craig Kennison, analyst]

Yes, that's very helpful. And if I could just drill down, like with Mercury, we can very clearly see your share gains show up in the industry data. But it's less obvious for Navico. Whether you are getting a larger share of wallet from your OEM customers as you sort of integrate all of those solutions along the lines of your ACES strategy. So I'm just curious, is there a way to frame your share of wallet across the Navico portfolio?

[David Foulkes, executive]

Yes. We have not broken that out. But since you asked the question, I think we can look into whether we do that on a more systematic basis going forward. I can tell you that the Simrad brand has gained market share last year and continues to do extremely well. And we imagine that only accelerating as the ultrawide, which is unique in the marketplace takes hold. Obviously, Craig, you'll be at Miami. And hopefully, you'll see a whole bunch of Fathom systems appearing. And you could call that market share gain, if you think about it as the number of OEMs for which we perform fully integrated services. But it's a good question, and we will think about whether we can establish some KPIs that make it more easy to track.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Xian Siew with BNP Paribas.

[Xian Siew Hew Sam, analyst]

I wanted to ask about the engine P&A guidance. It looks like revenues are kind of expected to be flattish. But EBIT margin is up, I think, 150 bps. Could you maybe walk through some of the drivers there?

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Yes. Happy to. That is really a bit of a mixed story. We think that distribution will still be a little bit sluggish, certainly in the first part of the year, but that our products business, the higher-margin products business will be up as it has been really the last handful of quarters. So that -- remember, that's a business that generally takes a [indiscernible] to a price. And generally, the market is another one or 2 points we think that's going to kind of play through on the product side with distribution trailing of this. The other item to remember is the [indiscernible] transition in our facility, our new facility in Indianapolis or just outside continues to go well. It's been a -- it's been a harder lift in '23 than anticipated, but the comp should be a little better going into '24 and beyond.

[Xian Siew Hew Sam, analyst]

Okay. Got it. And then maybe in the 2024 guidance bridge, which is helpful, you also have $0.30 from other as a benefit. What is that exactly?

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

A lot of that is gross margin factors, and there are -- I mean there's kind of a laundry list of them that we didn't want to make the slide any more busy than it was. But you can think of various COGS and other initiatives that we're doing above the OpEx line that will help to offset some of the sales softness certainly in the first half of the year.

[Xian Siew Hew Sam, analyst]

Got it. So it's like a gross margin.

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Yes, it's mostly -- it's a lithium of gross margin goodness. A lot of them are programs that each of our divisions are doing to take cost out at the COGS level instead and also, at the same time, working on their OpEx.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research.

[Frederick Wightman, analyst]

I wanted to come back to the engine refill comments. And I'm a little bit surprised that you're talking about not having as much of a pipeline opportunity there, just given some of the OEM backlog comments that you guys have made historically. And I know that you sort of stopped giving the OEMs who wanted to transition to Mercury power, but are you still seeing conversion for that backlog? Is that conversion more muted just given what's going on with retail and wholesale? How does that sort of share opportunity stand on like a backlog go-forward basis?

[David Foulkes, executive]

Yes. So maybe I'll start and Ryan could pick up. We did not share gain as -- and clearly, part of that share gain is Mercury getting into more OEMs and getting more share of existing OEMs. There are a couple of notables coming across the line. I think you might see a few in Miami already. So we're continuing to convert. I think so, if you look at the overall market, obviously, the way the market is behaving is affecting every OEM. And that is somewhat reflected in the $1.50 that Ryan included in the -- at the start of the bridge, but the additional OEMs that we're bringing on board and we do continue to do that and increase mix in others is reflected in that $0.50 a share opportunity.

[Frederick Wightman, analyst]

Okay. And if we could shift to the Boat business. I mean you guys just posted almost a 6% operating margin in a quarter where you were down over 20% in sales. And if we look historically, I think you guys would be really, really happy with the 6% margin agnostic of sales were up, down or sideways. So can you just sort of help us maybe give a state of the union for the downside margin performance of that? I mean you've talked about getting back to double digits historically, understanding that it's a tough wholesale environment today, but is that 6% a pretty good floor going forward?

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Fred, I'll take this and Dave can fill in. Yes, we are pretty happy. I mean given that volume is down almost 20%, as you said, off of a Q4 2022 where we did hit that 10% operating margin, which I believe was the fourth out of 5 quarters, we did it in a row. Yes, we're pretty happy with that fourth quarter performance. And that's in an environment where we have a little bit extra discounting to spur retail, certainly in the start of the season.

But it also reflects some really nice operational improvements really across all of our brands. The Boat Group has done a great job of taking OpEx out and keeping it out. And so yes, I would say 6% is a pretty nice floor for a quarter where volume is where it was. I think you've seen the guidance for the full year and in a year where we're still going to produce a little bit lower than we did in '23, holding margins into that kind of 6%, 7%, 8% for the full year number is something that a handful of years ago would have been pretty darn impossible. So a testament to the operating jobs in all the businesses, but certainly the focus on taking OpEx out and keeping it out.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Scott Stember with ROTH MKM.

[Scott Stember, analyst]

It sounds like you guys are looking for a flattish boat market this year. What are your assumptions as far as getting some help from interest rate reductions from the Fed?

[David Foulkes, executive]

Yes. I think the interest rate reductions from the Fed and also other global central banks, given our presence in Europe, particularly but also in other markets. 2 effects. One is directly impacts financing costs and the other is frees up kind of family budgets, discretionary spending more broadly. And maybe a surgery effect is just consumer confidence.

So there are a number of kind of tailwinds that hopefully, when that cycle begins, will be introduced. I would say that the -- there is a lot of promotional financing around at the moment including from us, but you will -- if you go to book shows or if you look online, but you will see many companies offering promotional risk. So I would say that a lot of people are not -- unless that credit rating is not high. They're probably not paying the nominal rate which at the moment has dropped about 50 basis points to about kind of 8.5%. I think probably more people are seeing $5. 99, $6. 99 rates.

One of the things we are seeing, though, is we continue to see a lot more cash buyers. And even though the promotional interest rates pull people in a lot of cases, the deal closes with people taking the cash and paying cash. So I think the primary effect will be there, but the secondary and tertiary effects of more discretionary income and consumer confidence that at least [indiscernible].

[Scott Stember, analyst]

Got it. And then last question on the engine side, repower. I guess, one of the theories is as you guys have more production capabilities and as the OEM side is falling back a little bit in a tougher economy that boat owners would repower their boats with some of your newer products. A, are you starting to see that yet? And b, could you just remind us of the margin delta on an engine between repower and OEM?

[Ryan Gwillim, executive]

Scott. Yes, I mean repower actually had a really nice second half and probably will have a pretty good first half. We actually gained 500 basis points of repower share in the year, which is pretty big but still, our repower share trails our overall U.S. share. So there's still room to run there. We don't talk exact on margins, but the retail dealer margin certainly is stronger than OEM just based on volume. So that is definitely a positive on the operating margin side. But we don't comment on exactly how much it is. But yes, very good repower, not only in the U.S. but internationally as well.

[Operator]

At this time, we would like to turn the call back over to Dave for some concluding remarks.

[David Foulkes, executive]

Thank you. Well, thank you all for joining us again and for the great questions. We really appreciate them. Despite the challenges, we again delivered a very strong year, second best ever. So you could forget that, but we're trying to make sure we don't which I think continues to demonstrate the resilience of our portfolio. Free cash flow generation was a particular highlight, I think, in the second half of the year and gives us additional flexibility as we go into 2024.

As we noted a couple of times, OEM and dealer customers will likely continue to be cautious in their ordering through a portion of the first quarter. But we think we've equipped ourselves very well for the start of 2024. Pipelines are at appropriate levels. We have a wealth of new products. We have great digital properties. We have a well thought out mix of incentives. And we're also, as Ryan mentioned, a couple of times, continuing to control costs. I would say that we're -- we prefer a year -- this year of increasing guidance. And so we're looking -- it's exciting, I think, that we're off to a good start with retail.

Boatshow, we didn't talk much about, but boat show sales are maybe single digits down versus last year, but improving as we go through the year. Mix is significantly up, up into kind of 15% to 20% kind of mix up versus last year, which is very encouraging.

So we could talk about all of those things and introduce you to our new products at our investor and analyst event in Miami on Feb 14. We look forward to seeing you all there. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.