Barnes Group Inc

NYSE:B

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Operator]

Thank you for standing by. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Barnes First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the conference over to Bill Pitts, Vice President of Investor Relations. Bill, you may begin your conference.

[William Pitts, executive]

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2024 earnings call. With me are Barnes President and Chief Executive Officer, Thomas Hook; and Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer, Julie Streich. You can access all earnings-related materials on the Investor Relations section of our corporate website at onebarns.com. That's O-N-E-B-A-R-N-E-S.com. During our call, we will be referring to the earnings release presentation.

Our discussion today includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, which provide additional information we believe is helpful to investors. These measures have been reconciled to the related GAAP measures in accordance with SEC regulations. You will find a reconciliation table on our website as part of our press release and in the Form 8-K submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Be advised that certain statements we make on today's call, both during the opening remarks and the question-and-answer session may be forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. Please consider the risks and uncertainties that are mentioned in today's call and are described in our periodic filings with the SEC which are available on the Investor Relations section on onebarnes.com.

I will now turn the call over to Tom for his opening remarks. After that, Julie will provide a review of our financial performance and details of our updated 2024 outlook. Then we will open up the call for questions. Tom?

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Thank you, Bill, and good morning. Barnes had a solid start to 2024, led by strength in aerospace and underpinned by strong end market demand. Additionally, we delivered substantial progress on our 3 strategic pillars to dramatically enhance shareholder value. These pillars are core business execution, scale aerospace and integrate, consolidate and rationalize industrial.

We are now 5 quarters into the execution of our multiyear transformation plan, with many positive steps already completed along this journey. We continue to execute a multitude of products in parallel through 2024, and we are energized by the momentum we have generated.

For the first quarter, revenue of $431 million increased 28% reported and 4% organic. Adjusted EBITDA grew 38% to $80 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was up 130 basis points. We will discuss the drives momentarily. Our restructuring program, which is aimed at accelerating growth and profitability, has progressed on schedule and planned savings remain on track. We continue to target run rate annualized savings of $38 million by the end of 2024 and $42 million by the end of 2025. Please note that $11 million of the original $53 million target related to the Associated Spring and Hänggi businesses and transferred with the divestiture. Much of that benefit was already realized in part facilitating the sale.

Our restructuring savings to date have largely served to offset inflationary cost pressures and unfavorable industrial mix. We will aggressively pursue additional cost rationalization opportunities primarily associated with the integrated consolidated and rationalized pillar of our strategy. As mentioned on our last call, Barnes Aerospace is now a truly global business with expanded geographic reach, diverse capabilities and offerings to comprehensively serve customers around the world. The scale achieved with the addition of MB Aerospace positions us as a more significant player in the industry and allows us to compete more effectively.

To that end, we successfully closed multiple new profitable long-term agreements. You may recall in February, we told that the General Electric agreement to extend the term for LEAP engine programs by 10 years, extend legacy engine programs by 4 years and expand our portfolio of products on military engines. In addition, another 5 long-term agreements have been finalized during the quarter across our large customers, General Electric, Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney. A few other LTAs are agreed to and awaiting finalization. In total, the full term value of these agreements is approximately $2 billion.

Our success in getting these agreements across the finish line led to incredibly strong orders in the quarter. OEM book-to-bill was 2.6x, and OEM backlog grew to $1.46 billion up 19% since December 2023. With respect to the aerospace aftermarket, the recent MRO Americas conference highlighted a robust industry outlook. Persistent supply chain trends and disruptions in new aircraft production have provided lift to the aftermarket. This is increased utilization of older planes, especially for legacy narrowbody engines like the CFM56 and V2500, which are key platforms for Barnes Aerospace. We expect these dynamics will continue to benefit the aftermarket for some time.

Barnes Aerospace is well positioned in the aftermarket and we have made additional investments to further solidify our standing. For example, in February, we opened a new facility in Singapore to increase our capacity for engine component repairs in the Asia Pacific region. This facility will also have the flexibility to expand capacity for future growth. Additionally, just this month, we significantly expanded our MRO facility in East Granby, Connecticut.

Performance across our aftermarket business is solid. We are seeing robust demand as MRO sales are up 136% reported and 19% organic in the quarter. In addition, RSPs 30% organically. With a robust aerospace industry, a long runway of strong demand for both OEM and the aftermarket and a great team of talented people, we are well on our way to achieve $1 billion in annual aerospace revenue in 2025.

Aerospace is now the largest part of Barnes in terms of revenue and profit. Significant progress on our portfolio transformation continues as we shift our business mix towards the higher growth, higher margin and higher value aerospace market while simplifying and optimizing our industrial businesses to deliver improved performance. As disclosed in early April, we closed the sale of the Associated Spring and Hänggi businesses. This divestiture materially reduces our exposure to automotive component manufacturing and represents an important step in our ongoing strategy to integrate, consolidate and rationalize the industrial business. Net cash proceeds of approximately $150 million will be used to reduce debt.

Our Barnes transformation office established 1 year ago continues to make great progress across Barnes. This work is critical to the margin expansion, supply chain efficiencies and manufacturing footprint optimization needed to deliver our profitability targets.

Before concluding my prepared remarks this morning, I would like to speak about a few changes with respect to our Board, including the planned retirements of 2 of our long-time directors. First, Tom Barnes has served on our Board since 1978 and its Chair since 1995, providing steady leadership and guidance during his long tenure. He has been a stalwart champion of our people and an extraordinary community steward. It has been an honor to serve with Tom, and we are grateful for his lengthy dedication and service to the company that his family founded in 1857. We look forward to his continued contributions as Chair Emeritus.

Second, I want to thank my esteemed colleague, Mylle Mangum, Lead Independent Director for her tireless dedication and meaningful contributions to Barnes over a 21-year tenure as a director. Her energy, passion for our people and impact has been profound.

Next, I would like to welcome Adam Katz to our Board. Adam is one of the founders and the Chief Investment Officer of Irenic Capital Management. I look forward to hearing his insights and prospectus as an investor, and welcome his contributions and support of our value creation goals.

Finally, I would like to acknowledge Rich Hipple as our new Board Chair. Rick has significant public company experience and wisdom. He has been a great partner and colleague since he joined the Barnes Board in 2017. I am confident that he will provide strong board leadership necessary to enhance value for our stakeholders.

To close my remarks this morning, 2024 is off to a good start. The ongoing execution of our 3-pillar strategy is making Barnes a more focused and competitive company on the path to unleash profitable growth and a meaningful shift towards aerospace with its higher growth and profitability characteristics will accelerate the unlocking of Barnes value.

While we have made great progress in a short period of time, we are only approaching the midpoint of the comprehensive transformation of the company. As such, we are taking additional actions to reduce our cost profile, enhance profitability, drive cash generation and optimize the portfolio in 2024. With that, I will pass the call to Julie to cover our financial performance and outlook.

[Julie Streich, executive]

Thank you, Tom, and good morning, everyone. As a reminder, comparisons are year-over-year, unless otherwise noted. Please turn to Slide 8.

For the first quarter, sales were $431 million, up 28% reported and up 4% organic. Foreign exchange was not meaningful in the quarter. Adjusted operating income was $51 million, up 37% and adjusted operating margin of 11.9% was up 80 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA was $80 million, up 38% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 18.7%, up 130 basis points.

Interest expense was $25 million versus $5 million a year ago, largely due to higher borrowings given the acquisition of MB Aerospace and higher average interest rates. The company's effective tax rate was approximately 85%, primarily driven by $6.8 million of tax expense relating to the sale of Associated Spring and Hänggi. On an adjusted basis, the first quarter tax rate was 28%. Adjusted net income per share was $0.38 compared to $0.47 a year ago.

Turning to our segment performance, beginning with Aerospace on Slide 9. As Tom noted, our Aerospace business is well positioned to participate in the industry's robust growth and our top line performance reflects the strength of our scaled aerospace franchise. For the first quarter, total sales were $221 million, up 89% reported and up 19% organic. Adjusted operating profit of $35 million was up 69% and benefiting from the contribution of higher organic sales volume, inclusive of pricing, favorable aftermarket mix and the contribution of MB Aerospace. These benefits were partially offset by the noncash amortization of long-term acquired intangibles for the MB Aerospace acquisition and lower productivity at certain OEM facilities.

Adjusted operating margin declined 180 basis points to 15.7%. Aerospace adjusted EBITDA was $53 million, up 75% benefiting from higher organic sales and the contribution of MB Aerospace. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 24.2% versus 26.1% a year ago. As a reminder, the year-over-year change in Aerospace margins is in line with our guidance and reflects the mix between OEM, MRO and RSP sales following our acquisition of MB Aerospace. As Tom mentioned, Aerospace OEM backlog increased 19% sequentially from December and now stands at a record $1.46 billion. We expect to convert approximately 45% to revenue over the next 12 months.

Moving to Industrial results on Slide 10. We have made meaningful progress towards delivering our strategy to integrate, consolidate and rationalize our industrial segment in a short period. April's divestiture of Associated Spring and Hänggi and our ongoing cost reduction actions evidence our commitment to transform the business.

First quarter sales were $209 million, down 4% on both a reported and organic basis. Molding Solutions organic sales decreased 2%, while Motion Control solutions and automation's were each down 7%. Sequentially, Industrial sales were up 3%, primarily driven by Motion Control Solutions. Adjusted operating profit was $16 million, down 1%, reflecting lower organic sales volumes and unfavorable mix, partially offset by positive pricing and BTO cost initiatives.

Adjusted operating margin was 7.8%, up 20 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA was $27 million, down 6% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 13%, down 30 basis points. Within Industrial's order book this quarter, we saw the timing of certain customer projects pushed out. At Molding Solutions, hot runner demand remains soft while mold demand remains healthy. Excluding the domestic business, Motion Control generated soft tool and die orders, but improved orders in general industrial markets. And our automation business experienced lower year-over-year order activity in the quarter. Sequentially, Industrial orders improved 7% with Molding Solutions, Automation and the remaining Motion Control businesses all contributing. Commercial strategies developed by leadership teams named in Q4 are gaining traction, and we anticipate momentum to build in support of our strengthening second half outlook.

As Tom mentioned, we completed the sale of Associated Spring and Hänggi in early April. He provided highlights of the transaction, but let me take a moment to share a few more details. At March quarter end, the assets and liabilities of these businesses were classified as held for sale on the balance sheet. Tax charges are estimated at $16 million with $6.8 million of these charges recorded in the first quarter.

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow on Slide 11. Year-to-date cash used by operating activities was $2.3 million versus cash provided of $32.2 million a year ago. The decrease was largely due to cash used for accrued liabilities, working capital and an increase in other current -- capital expenditures of $12.8 million were up $1.9 million and relate to the company's restructuring program and investments for growth.

Free cash flow was a negative $15.2 million. Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 3.62x at quarter end, which improved modestly from 3.64x at the end of 2023. We remain on track to achieve a leverage ratio of 3x or lower by the end of 2024 and 2.5x by the end of 2025. Liquidity as of March 31 was $426 million, including $82 million in cash on hand and $344 million available under our revolving credit facility.

With the debt recapitalization for our MB Aerospace acquisition, there are no major debt maturities until 2028. During the quarter, Barnes refinanced Term Loan B facility. While the terms are essentially unchanged, we will see a reduction of 60 basis points in the interest rate on outstanding borrowings. Accordingly, we expect interest and tax savings of approximately $1.4 million in 2024 and $4.7 million in 2025.

Turning to Slide 12. Our full year outlook has improved slightly. We now expect total sales to be up 13% to 16% with organic sales of 5% to 8% and both ranges up 1 percentage point at the bottom end due to Aerospace strength. We expect Aerospace sales growth to be approximately 60%, inclusive of a full year contribution from MB Aerospace and forecast Aerospace organic sales growth in the mid-teens. For Industrial, we continue to expect total sales to be down mid-teens given the divestiture and organic sales to be up low single digits.

In addition, our outlook assumes a stronger second half of the year in Industrial. Adjusted operating margin expectations are unchanged and with total bonds between 12% to 14%, Aerospace between 15%, 16% and Industrial between 8.5% to 10%. Full year depreciation and amortization expense is expected to be approximately $130 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is unchanged in the range of 20% to 22%. This reflects Aerospace adjusted EBITDA margin of 24% to 25% and Industrial of 15% to 16%. We expect adjusted EPS of between $1.62 and $1.82, up $0.07 on the bottom end of the range and $0.02 at the top end of the range versus our February expectation, reflecting the benefit of our first quarter performance and Term Loan B repricing partially offset by a higher for longer interest rate environment.

On Slide 13 of our earnings presentation, we have included additional 2024 guidance assumptions for modeling purposes. One last point on the outlook regarding the portfolio transformation supporting our long-term strategy. As previously disclosed, the Associated Spring and Hänggi divestiture will reduce year-over-year EPS by $0.28 and the MB Aerospace acquisition will be approximately $0.20 dilutive in year but EPS neutral to accretive exiting 2024.

Our portfolio transformation is positioning us for higher, more profitable growth over the long term. We are well positioned and energized to take advantage of the growth opportunities before us in Aerospace, and we'll continue to optimize our industrial businesses as we execute our 3-pillar strategy. Operator, we will now open the call for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

[Matt Summerville, analyst]

A couple of questions. The second half better in industrial. I've heard that probably a number of times over the course of my covering Barnes in the last 20 years. What underpins the second half better outlook for Industrial today versus what the company has talked about in the past that, again, just seemingly hasn't come to fruition more times than not? So help me with that first, please.

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Certainly, Matt. Thanks for the question. Last year largely was for the Industrial portfolio implementing the strategy of integrate, consolidate and rationalize. It was standing up teams to do the transformation, integrating the management teams and putting them in place, which took place in the third and fourth quarter of last year which gave us a real solid foundation to start on the integration side.

A series of transformation products were being implemented. Last year we had to stand up the systems to manage those transformation products. So heading in to 2024, we have a much stronger foundation to kick the year off. Hence, it's delivered some very nice solid results as we've closed the first quarter that momentum in those teams that have been in place have significantly on a sequential basis, improved penetration to the commercial market excellence initiatives into the market.

Our overall sales funnel is healthier. Our overall look into the markets are healthier and it's resulting in sequential orders increase on all the businesses that we have in Industrial. And it's that momentum and the effect of the full year of the transformation product savings coming into effect that make the trajectory into the second half stronger. We're not expecting any macro shifts in the markets but it's just our operational performance and execution will deliver against that. And we feel very well positioned to do that.

[Matt Summerville, analyst]

Got it. As you think bigger picture around the Industrial segment today, do you view any of these businesses as core at this juncture? And just to review the $38 million of run rate savings, how much will be actually realized? So the $38 million run rate number you build to, I get that. So how much is actually realized ex Spring and Hänggi in '24 versus what was actually realized in the P&L in '23?

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Got it. Well, from a big picture perspective, I'll give you the macro, and then I'll let Julie talk to the run rate savings on the $38 million. Big picture perspective is we're strategically looking at the entire industrial portfolio, how it is comprised and fit together and evaluating all of our strategic alternatives. That's been started in 2023. It's been a very active process into this year.

We hit a clear major milestone exiting automotive components with the Associated Spring and Hänggi divestiture. We're looking at all the other businesses for how they fit into Barnes' Industrial portfolio, evaluating our alternatives, nothing to communicate at this time. We -- our macro perspective on the synergies, we expect to be able to preside the full extent of those synergies in 2024 for industrial that we've outlined as we head into 2025, part of the 3-year program. But I'll let Julie give you the progression of how that incrementally works in from last year to this year from a numbers perspective.

[Julie Streich, executive]

Matt, yes, for the full year, we're looking at about $16 million of in-year savings. We realized about $6 million to $7 million of that in the first quarter and we'll continue to see that build, as Tom mentioned. The nuance this year as well is that we'll start to see some benefits through the aerospace side of the business is the LEAP transformation program where we're transitioning work from our Windsor facility to Singapore also starts to take effect. So net-net, you'll see about $16 million in-year.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

[Christopher Glynn, analyst]

Good news for you on the CFM56 kind of shop visit peak extensions here. Just a question on free cash flow guidance. I believe it's unadjusted. So curious what the current year impacts are. You gave us deal taxes, so that $16 million comes back next year. And -- but in terms of other transaction costs, restructuring cash, et cetera, so we can think about a bridge to an otherwise clean operating cash number.

[Thomas Hook, executive]

I'll let Julie answer the free cash flow guidance question. But yes, we -- I would reiterate the aftermarket CFM56 extension is very good news. And given our positioning with expansions in our MRO facilities, both in the Americas and in Singapore, we feel very well positioned on the aftermarket side to respond to increased requirements from the customers to grow the aftermarket business going forward. And I think that does really position the Aerospace aftermarket well prospectively. I'll let Julie talk to the free cash guidance question.

[Julie Streich, executive]

If I think -- if I understood your question correctly, Chris, on a normalized basis, if you think about unadjusted numbers, we would still look to have cash flow generation and cash conversion exceeding 100%. The numbers this year of 140% cash conversion. If you look at that on an adjusted net income basis, gets you down closer to that greater than 100%. So that's not a specific numeric answer, but it's directionally what we would expect the business to generate.

[Christopher Glynn, analyst]

Yes. What's the impact of cash restructuring this year and transaction costs that you expect that are in your free cash flow number if you have some kind of round-ish numbers there?

[Julie Streich, executive]

Sure. So we have a number of items that are contributing there. Our adjusted taxes are $42 million. There's a transition tax payment of $17 million. We have Associated Spring and Hänggi operating taxes about $16 million. So those are some of the onetime items that are hitting this year.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Sam Struhsaker from Truist Securities.

[Samuel Struhsaker, analyst]

On for Michael Ciarmoli. I was curious, you guys called out lower productivity in some of your Aerospace facilities. Can you just give any more detail on maybe kind of what the drivers were with that? And then also, if you have any idea of maybe sales trajectory within MB moving forward, that would also be great.

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Yes, from an Aerospace side, we have addressed very nicely in the aftermarket. Our Aerospace aftermarket facility productivity issues. So on the aftermarket side now, not only are we adding capacity in the Americas and Asia, we've also corrected the operational productivity issues we had in that aftermarket facility. On the OEM side, we have a mix of both supply chain challenges, supply chain inputs, which are not symmetrical. They're jumpy as well as we have some labor productivity in the plants with lower tenured employees and efficiencies.

On the good side is we have each of those facilities identified. We have made leadership changes. We put in additional resources. We brought in external resources now that are helping that corrective action journey to get that resolved in those situations and we are expecting good progress over the course of 2024 to directly address those more aggressively. And we're our second half of the year, we're projecting that we'll be able to work our way out of those challenges just like we did the aftermarket facility.

We can't control the supply chain asymmetries, but we are expecting relief over the course of the second half of the year on some of that supply chain and consistency that hurts OEM production flow, and we're expecting that also to be a positive [ SAM ] as well. I didn't quite catch your question on MB, the second part of your question. Could you just repeat that?

[Samuel Struhsaker, analyst]

Yes, no problem. Just if you guys have any idea in terms of kind of what we might think about for a sales trajectory like looking forward within MB Aerospace? And then I guess, also kind of building on that, there have been some other operators in the aftermarket that talked about increased visibility to 18 to 24 months, especially at the aftermarket show. And I was just curious if you guys kind of have a similar level of visibility or what you're seeing in terms of that?

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Certainly. Well, we're expecting from an MB standpoint, we wouldn't break it down to an individual facility, but overall, we're on the projections of the combined deal model between Barnes Aerospace and MB and there is a little bit of a shift towards a healthier aftermarket, as you know. And we can confirm that really, given the slower pace of OEMs delivering a particular [ barcraft ] from Boeing it is shifting more workload into the aftermarket on the CFM56 platform, which is favorable to us. We also see that favorable tilt on the MB product lines that we acquired in the aftermarket.

So we're expecting that robust environment continue. It has tempered a little bit by availability in the supply chain of how much growth can be supported. But we also feel that putting on additional capacity to continue that growth trajectory for many years to come. So we feel confident in the deal model than the Aerospace. There are puts and takes as we decide how to rebalance the portfolio across Barnes and MB facilities as we do some of the transformation efforts, but overall, on a consolidated basis, we have a very robust and healthy view of the rest of '24 heading into the future years.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Dahlberg with Wolfe Research.

[Gregory Dahlberg, analyst]

I'm on for [indiscernible] today. I just had one quick question. So kind of taking into account everything we've talked about so far in Aerospace guide getting picked up at the bottom end. Can you just talk about the moving pieces of your latest 2024 sales outlook for OE, aftermarket, RSP. Any major changes to talk through there?

[Thomas Hook, executive]

I'll give a little macro and then Julie can chime in, is we expect, obviously, with some of the changes on the new deliveries of aircraft, while Boeing will obviously be adjusting their output rate. It won't necessarily equate to increases at [ Airbus]. So we're expecting stronger risk transfer of that type of compression in the aftermarket growth for us, which we actually think is more favorable in the overall mix of our Aerospace business from a profitability perspective.

From a trajectory of the broader industry, we'll see overall travel, very strong heading into the year and into next year. So we see strength across really all platforms. For us, there's -- with the combination of MB, we feel very geographically balanced. Very balanced across all the engine OEM manufacturers, both on the OEM side as well as in the aftermarket side. So even though there may be in an aerospace perspective, shifts within the market, we feel we're quite balanced across it to be able to pick up those shifts, and we're consciously making sure we are ahead of capacity and also making sure that we're addressing the operational challenges proactively so that we can win that business and keep the trajectory growing on a profitable basis. If you want the Xs and Os of the guidance, we get into that a little bit more. But we think all of that macro picture is digested into our prospective view on guidance as well.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Christopher Glynn with Oppenheimer.

[Christopher Glynn, analyst]

Misplaced my other question, the first try. I was curious about the -- if you quantify the MB-related amortization, and where you are in terms of thoughts to potentially exclude that in the future from adjusted EPS?

[Julie Streich, executive]

Sure, thanks for the question Chris. So there is a significant impact, obviously, from the amortization that I will talk to in a second. And because we are now also guiding to adjusted EBITDA that is our way of giving a metric that neutralizes that. So when we model and when we talk about the business and think about the business, we can think about it on a clean perspective.

In the quarter, there was about $6-ish million of amortization related to the deal. But if we think about it on an adjusted EBITDA margin perspective, the overall portfolio from the legacy business would have had margins that were up a couple of hundred basis points year-over-year. That was offset by about 400 basis points of dilutive impact from MB netting to the 190 basis points that we spoke about in our earnings.

I'll remind you though, and it's really important we do always keep this in mind, MB has a very rich mix of OE and aftermarket business. They have healthy margins and it is a business that is performing well for us. The single differential is that the legacy business benefits from RSPs, which as you know, have an additionally higher level of margin and it's just the law of averages when you blend the 2 portfolios.

So strategically, a great deal strategically the right thing for the business long term and the margins that we delivered this year are in line with expectations. So I hope that answers your question and provides a little bit more color perspective as well.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

[Matt Summerville, analyst]

And I apologize if you mentioned this in the prepared remarks, but can you give us a feel for how the go-forward quarterly earnings cadence, adjusted EPS cadence sort of plays out for Barnes for the remainder of the year? .

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Certainly, I'll give you the macro, Matt, and then Julie can chime in with some more specifics. As you know, post the Associated Spring and Heinz Hanggi that we guided to the first quarter perspective, we have some integration stranded costs that we're taking out of the business. We have the [ BTO ] initiatives that are coming in full force over the course of '24. We also have the Barnes Aerospace transformation starting to kick in over the second half in particular for savings.

That in combination with a very strong commercial portfolio that has really precipitated a lot of orders in the beginning of the year here at Aerospace and sequentially very strong orders trajectory for industrial we're projecting stronger results into the back half of the year, obviously reflecting the -- all the benefits of those programs. I'll let Julie give a little bit more color with regards to how she think that breaks down over the course on a quarterly basis for '24.

[Julie Streich, executive]

So without giving specific guides by the quarter, I would -- we're expecting that the second quarter will be slightly better than the first quarter, and we would ramp in the second half. And tying back to the question you asked earlier, Matt, that's largely driven by the fact that we are watching how macro industry supply chain challenges play out in aerospace. The second quarter will allow us time to continue to address the productivity and throughput opportunities we have at specific facilities. And we'll continue to see the commercial activities on the industrial side ramp.

So as mentioned, if you're thinking about it from a modeling perspective, will be slightly favorable to Q1 and then we would ramp in the back half.

[Matt Summerville, analyst]

Got it. And then maybe just digging into Industrial and Aero a little bit deeper. When you think about the organic outlook, mid-teens Aero, low single Industrial. How do the various SBUs kind of revolve around those midpoints, if you will. Can you kind of hit on OE versus the aftermarket categories in Aero and then the 3 remaining SBUs in Industrial relative to the some average organic expected, please?

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Certainly, I can give you some qualitative comments, Matt. On Industrial, is there -- you're going to see all the businesses really be fairly close into that target range. We see the effectiveness not necessarily that it's market-driven. We see the effectiveness as the integration of the teams and the rejuvenated commercial market efforts to go to market.

So despite some challenging conditions in some of the Industrial markets. We still feel we can grow the underlying businesses. We see the order flow of each of those businesses increasing sequentially in response to those initiatives that we put in place, both the BTO cost savings initiatives as well as those commercial team initiatives to build the funnel. So I don't think across industrial, you're going to see much variation across that midpoint of that trajectory.

Aero is a different story. We will see that the aftermarket will continue to be strong, tempered by some supply chain availability at a certain point. Our ability with additional capacity and engagement of the customer on the demand side, we will have some limitations on the supply chain to be able to deliver against that growth. But I do feel that there will be a shift as OEM may have some tempering against that growth the aftermarket will continue to be stronger. And we were expecting that provided we don't have any limits against the supply chain that it will continue that transition.

Of course, there's a lot of dynamics as we look forward. We will end up having to see what happens with the production output rates in the new aircraft that it could affect that. But in general, I'd say qualitatively, aftermarket stronger and OEM, just a touch under what our original projections were.

[Matt Summerville, analyst]

Got it. So I want to dig into Molding Solutions for a minute. Can you talk about what you saw from -- on a sequential basis, incoming order activity with respect to both hot runners and molds? Can you talk about whether you've begun to alleviate some of the capacity constraints you've been facing in the Molding Solutions segment? And maybe comment on what lead times there are presently looking like?

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Yes. So in Molding Solutions, there's geographic effect and product line effects. I'll hit the product line effects first. We see continued strength globally in the multi-cavity molds. We're one of the world's leader in this. We've put additional capacity in place within the Americas, Asia to be able to respond to customer demand. We've shortened the lead times down from 50-plus weeks of lead time for complex molds down into the range of 40 weeks, so a significant reduction over the last quarter, which we're pretty happy with. That helps us believe inventory levels in backlog quite nicely and helps us win new business.

Sequentially in the molds side, we picked up again more business in the first quarter, and our deal funnel is extremely full, and our win rate is healthy. So overall, across the globe, from a market standpoint, the multi-cavity molds is strong. Hot runners, asymmetric. We have done a really nice job of stabilizing that business and recovering the deal funnel -- commercial deal funnel for sales in EMEA and also now in Asia, particularly China.

The new commercial leadership teams in place involving solutions have been very effective at stabilizing the business and winning in those markets. Those markets are not particularly strong in terms of the recovery. So this is more of an internal commercial market excellence initiative that is really driving these results to the integrated consolidate, rationalize initiative. But in the MDA in China, we definitely feel that the implementation of the initiatives has been positive traction. We still have work to do in the Americas as we move forward, where we see still kind of not great market conditions. We're not expecting anything -- any uptick, but we still have changes to make in the Americas and we're implementing those changes actively already, and we're expecting to be able to turn the Americas around by the midyear point to be able to pick up more momentum as well.

[Operator]

That concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Thomas Hook for closing remarks.

[Thomas Hook, executive]

Thank you for joining our call today. Barnes continues to advance our business transformation strategy with solid results to open 2024. With the acquisition of MB Aerospace and the Associated Spring and Hänggi divestiture an increasing majority of our earnings are driven by Aerospace. In alignment with our 3-pillar strategy, we will continue to invest in Aerospace to take full advantage, strong demand and attractive growth opportunities.

In parallel, we will continue to integrate, consolidate and rationalize our industrial business and to further optimize that part of our portfolio for long-term profitable growth. Our comprehensive strategic review is ongoing, and we remain committed to reshaping and positioning Barnes to maximize value for our shareholders. We will continue to share further progress updates as appropriate, and we appreciate your continued interest in Barnes.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.