Antero Resources Corp
NYSE:AR
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one AR stock under the Base Case scenario is 35.71 USD. Compared to the current market price of 33.26 USD, Antero Resources Corp is Undervalued by 7%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Antero Resources Corp
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Fundamental Analysis
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Antero Resources Corp., a prominent player in the natural gas and NGL (natural gas liquids) sector, has carved out a distinctive niche in the energy market by focusing on low-cost, efficient operations in the Appalachian Basin, particularly in West Virginia and Ohio. Founded in 2002, the company strategically positioned itself to capitalize on the abundant reserves of natural gas and liquids in one of the most prolific production regions in the United States. Antero has built a reputation for its innovative drilling techniques and advanced technology, allowing it to maintain robust production levels while keeping costs competitive. With a strong emphasis on sustainable practices and a commit...
Antero Resources Corp., a prominent player in the natural gas and NGL (natural gas liquids) sector, has carved out a distinctive niche in the energy market by focusing on low-cost, efficient operations in the Appalachian Basin, particularly in West Virginia and Ohio. Founded in 2002, the company strategically positioned itself to capitalize on the abundant reserves of natural gas and liquids in one of the most prolific production regions in the United States. Antero has built a reputation for its innovative drilling techniques and advanced technology, allowing it to maintain robust production levels while keeping costs competitive. With a strong emphasis on sustainable practices and a commitment to reducing carbon emissions, Antero is not only responding to the growing demand for cleaner energy but also aligning itself with the evolving preferences of investors who prioritize environmental responsibility.
Investors are particularly drawn to Antero's disciplined approach to capital allocation and its strong financial performance. The company boasts a solid balance sheet, bolstered by strategic hedging practices that protect against price volatility in the commodities market. By effectively managing its production costs and leveraging its vast supply chain network, Antero has positioned itself for long-term growth and stability. Moreover, its ongoing investment in innovative technologies and continuous enhancement of operational efficiency signals a clear path towards increased shareholder value. In an age where energy companies are under pressure to adapt to changing market dynamics, Antero Resources stands out as a reliable option for investors seeking exposure to the energy sector, combined with a clear commitment to sustainability and growth.
Antero Resources Corporation is a prominent natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) company primarily engaged in the exploration, development, and production of these resources. The company operates mainly in the Appalachian Basin, particularly in West Virginia and Ohio. Its core business segments can be broken down into the following areas:
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Natural Gas Production:
- Antero Resources focuses on the exploration and production of natural gas, leveraging its holdings in the Marcellus and Utica Shales. This segment is critical to the company's revenue generation, as natural gas is a key resource for electricity generation and heating.
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Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Production:
- The company also produces NGLs, which are valuable by-products of natural gas extraction. These include ethane, propane, butane, and iso-butane. Antero's NGL production contributes significantly to its overall profitability, especially given the high demand for these products in petrochemical processes and heating.
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Midstream Services:
- Antero has developed a robust midstream segment through its partnership with Antero Midstream Corporation. This includes gathering, processing, and transporting natural gas and NGLs. The midstream services are integral in ensuring efficient delivery of resources to markets, which helps stabilize cash flow.
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Marketing and Sales:
- The company engages in the marketing and sales of its natural gas and NGL production. This segment involves securing transportation capacity and optimizing pricing strategies to maximize revenues from its production.
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Hedging and Risk Management:
- To manage the volatility in commodity prices, Antero employs hedging strategies. This is essential for ensuring a more predictable revenue stream and protecting against market fluctuations.
In summary, Antero Resources Corporation is primarily focused on the production of natural gas and NGLs, supported by robust midstream services and strategic marketing efforts. This structure allows the company to efficiently optimize resource extraction and maximize financial performance while mitigating risks associated with commodity price fluctuations.
Antero Resources Corp., a significant player in the natural gas and oil sector, holds several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals:
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High-Quality Resource Base: Antero has access to some of the richest gas and liquid resources in the Appalachian Basin, particularly in the Marcellus and Utica shales. This resource quality can lead to lower extraction costs and higher profit margins compared to competitors.
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Integrated Business Model: Antero operates a fully integrated business model, combining both upstream (exploration and production) and midstream (transportation and processing) operations. This integration allows for better control over costs, more efficient operations, and reduced dependency on third-party providers.
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Strong Hedging Strategy: The company often employs a proactive hedging strategy to minimize exposure to price volatility in the commodity markets. This helps stabilize revenue and provides more predictable cash flows, which is a significant advantage in a highly volatile industry.
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Focus on Innovations and Technology: Antero is known for its commitment to utilizing advanced technologies in drilling and production. This focus can lead to greater efficiencies, lower costs, and better recovery rates from wells.
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Environmental Stewardship: With the increasing emphasis on environmental responsibility, Antero has made strides in sustainability practices that can appeal to investors and consumers looking for environmentally responsible operations. This commitment can provide a reputational advantage over competitors.
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Strong Financial Position: Antero has maintained a robust balance sheet with manageable levels of debt, allowing for capital flexibility. This financial strength enables the company to invest in growth opportunities while withstanding market downturns.
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Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures: The company has engaged in strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational efficiency and expand its market presence, providing access to additional resources and technology.
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Access to Domestic and Export Markets: Antero is well-positioned to take advantage of both domestic demand growth and opportunities in the LNG export market, providing diverse revenue streams as global demand for natural gas increases.
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Experienced Management Team: Antero’s management team, led by seasoned industry professionals, has a strong track record of navigating the complexities of the oil and gas sector, making strategic decisions that capitalize on market opportunities.
These competitive advantages enable Antero Resources to maintain a strong position in the industry, driving growth and profitability amid varying market conditions.
Antero Resources Corp, like many companies in the energy sector, faces a variety of risks and challenges that could impact its operations and financial performance in the near future. Here are some of the key risks and challenges:
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Commodity Price Volatility:
- Antero Resources is exposed to fluctuating prices for natural gas, NGLs (Natural Gas Liquids), and crude oil. A significant decline in these prices can adversely affect revenue and profitability.
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Regulatory Changes:
- Increasing environmental regulations and policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions can impose operational constraints and additional costs on the company. Stricter regulations could also affect the demand for fossil fuels.
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Market Competition:
- The energy sector is highly competitive. The rise of alternative energy sources, particularly renewables, could impact the demand for natural gas and challenge Antero's market position.
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Operational Risks:
- Challenges associated with drilling, exploration, and production operations can affect output and operational efficiency. Geological, technical, and logistical risks can lead to delays or increased costs.
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Financial Leverage:
- Antero Resources may have significant debt levels that could impact financial stability. High leverage increases vulnerability to changes in interest rates and operational cash flows.
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Infrastructure Constraints:
- The company relies on the availability of pipeline infrastructure for transporting its products. Any bottlenecks, capacity limitations, or regulatory issues affecting pipeline construction could hinder operations and growth.
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Geopolitical Factors:
- The global nature of the energy markets means that geopolitical events can impact supply chains, pricing, and demand. Trade tensions and conflicts can disrupt markets and affect operational strategies.
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Weather-Related Events:
- Weather conditions can impact both production levels and demand. For example, extreme weather can affect production capabilities, while seasonal demand fluctuations can influence pricing.
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Technological Changes:
- The rapid pace of technological advancements in the energy sector requires companies to continuously innovate to stay competitive. Failure to adopt new technologies could put Antero at a disadvantage.
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Investor Expectations and Market Sentiment:
- Investors are increasingly focused on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors. Antero’s ability to meet these expectations can influence stock performance and access to capital.
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Supply Chain Challenges:
- Global or local supply chain disruptions can affect the availability of equipment and services, leading to potential delays and increased costs.
Being aware of these risks and challenges will be critical for Antero Resources to navigate the complexities of the energy landscape while pursuing growth opportunities. A proactive risk management strategy will be essential for mitigating these risks.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Antero Resources Corp
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Antero Resources Corp
Current Assets | 368.6m |
Receivables | 345.3m |
Other Current Assets | 23.3m |
Non-Current Assets | 12.9B |
Long-Term Investments | 226.9m |
PP&E | 12.6B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 36.2m |
Current Liabilities | 1.3B |
Accounts Payable | 129.8m |
Accrued Liabilities | 820.5m |
Other Current Liabilities | 373.7m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 4.9B |
Long-Term Debt | 1.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 3.3B |
Earnings Waterfall
Antero Resources Corp
Revenue
|
4.4B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-1.3B
USD
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Gross Profit
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3.1B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-2.9B
USD
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Operating Income
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185m
USD
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Other Expenses
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-140m
USD
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Net Income
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45m
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Antero Resources Corp
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
In its recent earnings call, Antero Resources highlighted record-setting operational efficiencies, reducing well completion times to 11 days—a 22% improvement from 2022. The 2024 capital budget was cut by 28% to $650 million while maintaining production levels. A notable increase in C3+ NGL prices (> $4/barrel higher than 2023) is projected to boost free cash flow by about $175 million, leading to an estimated $500 million increase in cash flow overall. Looking ahead, Antero remains positioned for a favorable 2025 with expected higher natural gas and liquids demand, indicating growth potential even in a soft pricing environment.
What is Earnings Call?
AR Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Antero Resources Corp's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Antero Resources Corp's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
AR Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Antero Resources Corp's solvency score is 37/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Antero Resources Corp's solvency score is 37/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
AR Price Targets Summary
Antero Resources Corp
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AR is 34.44 USD with a low forecast of 24.24 USD and a high forecast of 48.3 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for AR is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
AR Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Antero Resources Corp. is an independent oil and natural gas company, which engages in the development, production, exploration and acquisition of natural gas. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado and currently employs 519 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2013-10-10. The firm is engaged in the development, production, exploration and acquisition of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and oil properties located in the Appalachian Basin. The firm operates in three segments: the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, NGLs and oil; marketing and utilization of excess firm transportation capacity gathering and processing, and midstream services through its equity method investment in Antero Midstream. The firm holds approximately 502,000 net acres of natural gas, NGLs and oil properties located in the Appalachian Basin, primarily in West Virginia and Ohio. The firm owns a 29.1% interest in Antero Midstream Corporation, which consists of gathering systems and compression facilities, water handling and blending facilities, and interests in processing and fractionation plants.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one AR stock under the Base Case scenario is 35.71 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 33.26 USD, Antero Resources Corp is Undervalued by 7%.