Avangrid Inc

NYSE:AGR

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q3

[Operator]

Thank you for joining today's call. I would like to welcome you all to the AVANGRID Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

My name is Brika, and I'll be your event specialist operating today's call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the call over to our host, Álvaro Ortega, Vice President of Finance, Investor Relations and Treasury to begin. So Alvaro, please go ahead, when you're ready.

[Alvaro Sebastian, executive]

Thank you, Brika, and good morning to everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss AVANGRID's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Results.

Presenting on the call today are Pedro Azagra, our Chief Executive Officer; and Patricia Cosgel, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us today for the question-and-answer part of the call will be Catherine S Stempien, President and Chief Executive Officer of AVANGRID Networks; and Jose Antonio Miranda, Chief Executive Officer and President of Avangrid Renewables. Other members of the executive team are also joining us today and may be called upon to assist with the Q&A part of the call.

If you do not have a copy of our press release or presentation for today's call, they are available on our website at avangrid.com. During today's call, we will make various forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions of the U.S. Private Litigation Reform Act of 1995 based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties.

Actual results could differ materially from our forward-looking statements if any of our key assumptions are incorrect or because of other factors discussed in AVANGRID's earnings news release in the comments made during this conference call in the Risk Factors section of the accompanying presentation or in our latest reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, each of which can be found on our website, avangrid.com.

We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP financial measures.

I will now turn the call over to Pedro.

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

Thank you, Alvaro, and good morning, everyone. Before I get started, I'd like to thank the many of you who were able to join us at our Investor Day last month in New York City.

We were pleased to share our strategic plan for '22 to '25, defining a clear focus on regulated growth, consistent execution and value creation, and we look forward to updating you on our progress as we deliver on that strategy.

So with that said, we appreciate you being here with us today for our 9 months results presentation. Let's turn to Slide #5. We continue to make progress on our commitment to execution and operational excellence.

In the first 9 months, we have delivered double-digit growth in both our businesses and at the consolidated level. Our EPS has grown 22% year-over-year to $1.90 per share and adjusted EPS has grown 11% year-over-year to $1.94 per share.

In networks, each of our planned rate cases have not been filed. Last week, we filed our response to staff testimony in New York and have proposed to enter settlement negotiations starting next week. In addition, we expect a ruling on our settlement for our Berkshire Gas Company rate case in Massachusetts shortly.

Regarding our New England Clean Energy Connect project, we were pleased to receive at the end of August, a favorable decision, clarifying vested rights, jurisprudence from the main low court on our legal challenges to the main referendum that resulted in the halting of the construction of the transmission project. The matter was remanded to the trial court for the vested rights determination.

The trial court recently, denied reconsideration of its prior order denying our request for a preliminary injunction that would allow construction to resume as the legal proceeding continues. We remain confident that the full process will find the referendum designed to block these projects construction is unconstitutional. The NECEC project will benefit main and all New England by reducing the region's dependence on fossil fuels and providing much needed energy price stability keeping fossil fuel generators for giving themselves an 80% or higher rates on the backs of Maine and New England families while moving our region closer to our renewable energy future.

In renewables, our 194-megawatt Lund Hill Solar project reached COD this month, raising the total capacity we brought into operations over the last 12 months to 475 megawatts.

We are constructing approximately 600 megawatts of additional new capacity. We also continue to focus on mitigating risk and prudently addressing supply chain challenges.

In addition to the panels, we've previously secured for projects with COD in '22 and '23. We have now also secured all required panels for '24. In our offshore business, Construction on Vineyard Wind 1 is on track and is steadily progressing.

We are proud to announce that the manufacturing of all major components for this landmark project is underway. In addition, we're taking strategic steps to advance opportunities for long-term growth based on our strategic plan through 2025.

This month, we executed a heads of agreement with Sempra Infrastructure to support the potential joint development of large-scale green hydrogen and ammonia projects in the U.S. with an initial focus on the Gulf Coast and the West Coast.

Given this positive trajectory and our operational achievements, we are confident in our ability to deliver results for the full year within our expectations. We are now reaffirming our outlook for net income and adjusted net income of $850 million to $920 million or $2.20 to $2.38 per share.

This adjusted net income range would imply year-over growth versus '21, ranging between 9% and 11%. We are focused on setting reasonable and achievable goals, and most importantly, on following through continuing to build a trend where we consistently meet the mark.

Taking a closer look at our 9-month results on Slide 6, we are demonstrating a very solid earnings trajectory and further reinforcing of our trend of continued growth over the last 2 years. Since 2020, our 9-month net income and adjusted net income have each increased by over 70%.

The net income and adjusted net income we were reporting today for the last 9 months have already surpassed the levels we were able to deliver for the full fiscal year 2020. These results have driven approximately 40% growth in 2020 in our earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share.

Even with the impact of last year's equity issuance our 9-month adjusted EPS has grown since 2020 at a strong compound annual growth rate of approximately 18%. Moving on to our businesses.

On the network side, we are focused on execution and investment. We have filed rate cases in our jurisdictions this year, each seeking multiyear plans with new rates effective in 2023. As mentioned at our Investor Day, these rate cases, combined with our FERC formula REITs will provide regulatory agreements for approximately 90% of our rate base.

Our requests aim to balance the investments needed to improve the system and deliver on a state climate policy with customer affordability. We have requested approval of approximately $10 billion in capital investments over the next 3 years, focusing on clean energy transformation, reliability and resiliency and improving the quality of service to our customers, which will also create jobs in our local communities.

The investments needed to modernize the system and meet the state policy goals are substantial and the proposals we have put forward represent a balanced path to address those needs. As we work with regulators on these proceedings, we have taken a conservative approach to our long-term outlook. Maintaining capital spending on average at historical, but ultimately in sufficient levels to meet the future, the full needs of the system into the future.

As filed, the resulting build impact will be around 13% in New York with rates for our company remaining among the lowest in the state and between 4% and 5% for CMP, UI and Berkshire Gas, an increase that is lower than the current level of inflation.

At CMP, our rates would remain among the lowest for investor-owned utilities in New England. Turning now to the process. In New York, we have filed our response to a staff testimony, which supported an average rate increase across all 4 businesses of 20% versus 25%. A bench hearings are scheduled to begin early next month. However, we have filed for a stay of those proceedings in order to enter into voluntary settlement negotiations shortly with all parties.

In May, technical conferences on initial testimony are scheduled for November. And in Connecticut, the intervener testimonies are expected to be filed in December.

In Massachusetts, our profiling settlement with Attorney General is currently being considered by regulators and an order is expected shortly. If approved, our new rates will take effect in January.

Turning now to our offshore business on Slide #8. As you know, Vineyard Wind 1 is the first utility scale offshore wind farm in the U.S. and a key project, both for our company and for the country, which will generate clean, affordable energy for over 400,000 homes and businesses while reducing carbon emissions by over 1.6 million tons per year.

The project is progressing well and remains on track with the construction plan. As we have discussed previously, the supply chain for Vineyard Wind 1 is fully contracted and all labor costs are either fixed or capped, which protects the projects from current market pressures.

We have now issued all notices to proceed and the manufacturing for all major components is now underway. In particular, we are hoping to report that the offshore export cable installation will start this week. A steel erection for the onshore substation is 95% complete and installation of equipment is ongoing.

We are very encouraged by the excellent progress made here, and we get ever closer -- as we get even closer to delivering this milestone project in 2024. In Park City and Commonwealth Wind, our focus is on improving the project economics and renegotiating our PPAs because of the difficult environment.

As you know, we beat these projects in 2019 and 2021, respectively. Since then, the market experienced meaningful and anticipated changes due to high inflation, supply chain constraints, and higher capital and borrowing costs, make it necessary for us to pursue changes to the PPA terms, which we believe are modest and achievable.

To facilitate this process, we have filed a motion with regulators in Massachusetts to suspend regulatory review of our Commonwealth Wind PPAs for 1 month. As New England's largest offshore wind supplier, AVANGRID is committed to developing this new American industry and bringing with it the wide range of benefits to our communities.

Based on our report by PwC, we estimate that our investment in our 3 New England projects will generate tens of thousands of jobs during the construction phase, most of which will be in Massachusetts and Connecticut where we will be also generating over 1,500 long-term sustained jobs during the operational life of the projects.

As we deliver these benefits, our offshore activities will benefit from Iberdrola's development experience and proven track record of execution.

Moving to Slide 9. In onshore, over the last 12 months, we have achieved commercial operation of approximately 475 megawatts, including 281 megawatts of wind and 194 megawatts of solar. We have roughly an additional 600 megawatts under construction, including 106 megawatts of new onshore wind and 480 megawatts of new solar.

In line with our focus on mitigating risk and ensuring we can deliver on our existing commitments, we have worked with our suppliers to secure the required funnels for also our projects with planned COD in '23 and '24.

In addition, we continue to work with our customers to renegotiate certain terms and conditions of our PPAs to address inflation pressures, accommodate schedule impact and maximize project value. The Inflation Reduction Act will be a driving force for Americas clean energy industry, not just in the next 1 or 2 years, but over the next decade.

We expect the IRA will create a strong long-term tailwinds for additional investments in wind, solar and other renewables. And subject to treasury guidance, we are moving forward on plans to capture the opportunities that IRA brings.

We are evaluating the best fit within our fleet to execute repower projects, as we have done in the past, and we will maximize the value proposal of new growth on a project-by-project basis by maximizing the contribution of tax credits in their different fronts as well their monetization schemes. As we deliver near-term and future projects, we will also continue to benefit from the experience and the scale of the Iberdrola Group, especially when it comes to purchasing power and new technologies like green hydrogen.

Turning now to Slide #10. Our top strategic priority is execution. And as you can see from the list, our team is taking action. Throughout the year, we have delivered a number of successes across the organization and in both our businesses. Above all, at AVANGRID level, we are working to deliver on our 2022 earnings outlook.

And given our strong trajectory through these first 9 months, we are on track to do so. To date, we have delivered $2.1 billion in investments, an 11% year-over-year increase as compared to '21. Last month, we presented our new strategic plan, which will provide a deeper focus on steady regulated growth and healthy but achievable results, while also identifying a robust set of opportunities to deliver incremental value over and above our assumptions.

We also remain committed to creating sustainable value through our focus on ESG. As part of the nearly $800 million of debt we closed on this year, $275 million were new green bonds. Reinforcing our commitment to climate action, we are now targeting to reach carbon neutrality in Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2030, putting us ahead of most other major U.S. utilities.

In addition, we are advancing innovative new technologies such as green hydrogen that will support long-term decarbonization. Our efforts continue to be recognized by third parties, including Ethisphere, which named AVANGRID one of the world's most ethical companies for the fourth year in a row.

In Networks, our team have worked hard to put forward thoughtful proposals for our rate case filings in each of our states, balancing investment needs with customer affordability. We've taken significant steps forward in Maine with our improved common customer service performance of CMP leading to the removal of the 100 base basis points ROE adjustment, and we received a favorable ruling on NECEC from the Maine Supreme Court.

We have also achieved a number of positive regulatory outcomes, including an order in New York providing state funds to help paying down the unpaid balances of our most valuable customers impacted financially by the COVID pandemic.

We also received approval for additional storm amortization in Maine to recover our full 2021 deferred storm balance and our utilities have been recognized by EEI for their outstanding performance helping Luciana recover after Hurricane Ida.

In recent weeks, our crews traveled north to help restore power to Nova Scotia after Hurricane Fiona. Lastly, for networks, we are accelerating our digital transformation and enhancing the customer experience. We have increased our e-bill enrollments by 22% year-over-year, reaching a 40% adoption rate among our customers and have increased downloads of our mobile app by 76% year-over-year.

In renewables, we completed the restructuring of our offshore wind joint venture partnership, which allowed us to take full ownership of our largest new income projects. and we reached COD on roughly 400 megawatts of new onshore capacity.

We're taking action to mitigate macro pressure on the business by secured panel supply for our projects through 2024 and through the renegotiation of the PPAs. We continue to make steady progress in the construction of our Vineyard Wind 1 project. And this week, we will start the installation of the offshore export cable.

Furthermore, the passage of the IRA represents the largest federal investment in clean energy and climate in the U.S. history, providing long-term certainty on our range of incentives and locking transfer stability as an alternative to tax equity and overall, creating a strong growth signal for the industry.

As we await additional guidance from the federal government, our renewables team is focused on reviewing the impacts of the full package, ensuring we can swiftly respond and capture all benefits that align with our businesses.

Finally, we committed tax equity for approximately 600 megawatts of onshore projects and as mentioned, we continue to optimize our portfolio and development pipeline to maximize expected returns and reduce risk, including safe assets potentially.

With these achievements, and a solid operational in strategy in hand, I'm confident that we are on firm footing to deliver future growth. To discuss that growth further on Slide 11, I'd like to bring you back to the investments we expect to make through 2025. You've seen a broader view that reflects our full contribution to U.S. growth and clean energy development. On the left are our planned investments without the PNM Resources merger. The chart on the right shows our total investments with PNM Resources, including the full enterprise value of the transaction and estimated CapEx from '23 to '25.

In both cases, we have included 100% of the CapEx for Vineyard Wind 1, where we have the opportunity to consolidate the projects after COD pending a final business decision. After including the full CapEx for Vineyard Wind 1, even without PNM Resources, regulated networks account for roughly 60% of investments or $6.3 billion.

If we exclude the noncontrolling interests in Vineyard Wind 1 without PNM Resources, regulated networks will account for over 70%. PNM Resources adds another $10.9 billion, composed of our equity investment, projected CapEx and debt, increasing network share of our total investments to 80% or 88% if we exclude the noncontrolling interest in Vineyard Wind 1.

Altogether, including PNM Resources, our investment totals over $21 billion in regulated networks and contracted renewable assets. Across our existing utility footprint, we are holding CapEx steady at a level consistent with the prior 3-year period, allowing us to grow at an even pace balancing investments to improve reliability and resiliency with customer affordability.

As a reminder, our projections do not fully consider the proposed investment, investments in our rate cases, including investments to meet the state policy goals. As mentioned previously, we are focused on taking a disciplined approach that prioritizes the strategic and profitable growth of both our Networks and Renewables business and positions us to deliver healthy financial results even through a presently challenging economic environment.

Turning now to Slide 12. Over the last several months, we have engaged with many of you and have heard your feedback. I'd like to spend a few minutes here providing some additional color and explaining how our team and our new strategic plan are addressing those topics.

First, as I continue to say, our #1 objective is execution. Over the last 2 years, we have established a solid trajectory of sustainable and reliable earnings growth, and we are on track to deliver our 2022 guidance. Our investment plan through 2025 centers around our regulated network businesses and will promote secure and stable growth over the coming years.

Including the full enterprise value of PNM Resources and 100% of Vineyard Wind 1 CapEx, we're investing $21.5 billion to expand our footprint in both Networks and Renewables or approximately $11 billion without PNM's enterprise value and organic CapEx.

Another of my top priorities is engagement and building constructive regular relationship with regulators and other key stakeholders and we've made important progress over the years. We have been focused on making sustained improvements in customer service in Maine.

And as a result, we are successfully removed the 100 basis point ROE adjustment on CMP. And as you know, we filed multiyear rate plans in each of our states keeping the bill impact well below the current rate of inflation in Connecticut, Maine and Massachusetts.

We designed our proposals to include mechanisms to review risk exposure, such as forward-looking test years, revenue decoupling and trackers. A challenging macro environment and rising commodity costs put pressure on our customers and by driving an increased focus on operational excellence, securing government assistant funds, proposing balanced rate plans and developing low income rates, our utilities are working hard to help support our customers.

Our work has a real positive impact when we ask for a rate increase. It's to invest in our states through additional capital projects that create economic benefits such as local jobs and additional tax base whereas the much larger increases requested by social fuel generators are peer margin.

We are also executing on our key projects with Vineyard Wind 1, progressing on time and on budget. We've delivered both the multibillion dollar financing for this project and finalized the term sheet for the tax equity. We are encouraged by the Maine Law Court's recent ruling on NECEC.

And while the lower court decided not to grant a preliminary injunction, we believe we have a strong standing and remain confident the full legal process will find that the references attractive blocking on NECEC is unconstitutional.

We are 100% committed to profitable growth with a disciplined approach focused on value creation. Thanks to our early investments in offshore wind, we have built a large project pipeline at a lower cost than competitors entering the space today. We have 2.4 gigawatts of owned and contracted capacity, including the first commercial large-scale projects under construction. This is part of a larger diversified 20 gigawatts pipeline combining onshore wind, solar and offshore wind, which provides us incremental growth and value creation opportunities through asset rotation or partnerships.

Lastly, as peers strive to create cleaner generation profiles and set a stronger climate commitments, we already hit there and look very attractive from that perspective. Clean renewable resources account for over 90% of our portfolio which is at least twice as much as the other 2 leading renewable operation correctors in the U.S. And unlike those companies, we have no coal in our generation mix.

We were the first utility to set up a carbon neutral goal and we've continued to raise the bar, now targeting neutrality in Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions by 2030. If we continue to concentrate on each of these areas and drive a relentless focus on execution, I know we can deliver success.

Now I will hand it over to Patricia to provide more detail on our financial results.

[Patricia Cosgel, executive]

Thank you, Pedro. Good morning, everyone. Turning first to our earnings performance. In the third quarter of 2022, we generated net income of $105 million and our adjusted net income was $122 million.

While the quarter-over-quarter comparison benefited from the New York and Maine rate plans and positive results in Thermal and Asset Management and Renewables, there was an overall modest decline primarily due to the absence of AFUDC from the NECEC transmission project in 2021.

Higher depreciation and uncollectibles and business costs in networks that principally reflect the implementation of our rate plans in New York. In Renewables, production and pricing was flat quarter-over-quarter, with favorable pricing offsetting lower volumes due to curtailments and congestion.

Quarterly results were also impacted by lower taxes in Renewables that are offset by higher taxes in Networks. During the first 9 months of 2022, our net income was $734 million and our adjusted net income was $749 million, increases of 35% and 23%, respectively, from the same period in 2021.

The first 9 months of 2022 compared to the first 9 months of 2021 benefited from the implementation of the rate plans, primarily for the New York companies, which increased adjusted net income by $58 million. That number includes a positive impact from the removal of the 100 basis point ROE adjustment in Central Maine Power effective earlier this year, resulting from our improved customer service metrics and regulatory outcomes, including the New York arrearages order earlier this year, had a net positive impact year-over-year.

Results for the 9-month comparison also benefited from the $181 million gain from the restructuring of the offshore wind partnership agreement that gave us control of 100% of the Park City Wind and Commonwealth Wind project. from a $38 million increase in results in renewables pricing and production and from lower taxes. Those increases were moderated by the absence in 2022 of $83 million from our strong performance in the 2021 Texas weather event and $17 million of AFUDC in 2021, primarily for the NECEC project as well as by depreciation and as noted, higher business costs, which -- in Networks are related to the rate plan implementation and in renewables are related to growth.

Moving to the next slide. We are reaffirming our 2022 outlook for net income and adjusted net income of $850 million to $920 million and EPS and adjusted EPS of $2.26 to $2.38 per share.

Our focus remains on achieving these targets as we execute our investment plans with discipline and risk management focus continuously driving operational excellence. Our expectations reflect our performance to date, including the implementation of our network rate plans and offshore wind restructuring, higher capitalized labor and thermal and asset management results and lower taxes, which have been moderated by negative regulatory adjustments and uncollectible labor expense and the impact of renewables of congestion and COD delay.

We also show expectations of opportunities and risks for the remainder of the year versus our outlook expectations, which include wind production and pricing, thermal and asset management results, taxes, regulatory adjustments, including negative revenue adjustments that could be related to achievement of annual reliability and service metrics as well as labor business costs and uncollectibles.

Moving to the next slide. In this challenging and changing economic environment, we are focused on our balance sheet, access to liquidity and credit ratings, access to capital at attractive rates is important. Last year, we secured a $2.3 billion construction and term loan facility from a large group of banks that is funding the construction of our Vineyard Wind 1 project, which we have hedged at competitive rates a year ago.

And we recently executed a term sheet for $1.4 billion of tax equity for that project. Vineyard Wind 1 is the first large-scale offshore wind farm in the U.S. to deliver this important achievement, which will allow us to monetize the tax benefits from this landmark project.

Year-to-date, we also closed on tax equity funding for 606 megawatts of solar and onshore wind projects. As a reminder, several of our regulated subsidiaries priced $575 million of debt in the second quarter, locking in competitive rates for the funding in December. Some of these bonds at our Central Maine Power Company were Green bonds. And as you know, we issued $4 billion of equity in May of 2021 for the PNM Resources merger, which have been using to fund the capital investments in Networks and Renewables and which has helped defray our external debt needs as we grow these businesses.

Strong liquidity is a key priority. At the end of the third quarter, we had approximately $60 million of cash which along with ongoing cash from operations, dedicated utility level, tax equity financing at Renewables, our $2 billion commercial paper program backed by a $3.575 billion credit facility, our $500 million intercompany line of credit with Iberdrola and the $575 million of debt proceeds we will receive in December, we will use to fund investments and dividends.

Iberdrola has also provided us with a $4.3 billion commitment letter that backs up our PNM Resources merger closing. These sources provide us with $8.7 billion of liquidity covering 21 months. We also have the unique benefit of being a member of Iberdrola Group, which has a strong liquidity of approximately EUR 25 billion, covering 27 months.

Finally, our dividend policy remains the same. We are targeting a payout of 65% to 75% that we will grow into as our earnings increase over time, subject to board approval. Our board recently declared a quarterly dividend of $0.44 a share payable January 3, 2023.

In summary, our year-to-date results remain on track, and we're focused on execution. As we outlined in our recent Investor Day, we have a disciplined focus on our investments, risk management, financing plans, liquidity management and maintaining our credit rating.

Thank you for joining us today for our financial update. I'll now hand the call back over to our operator for questions, followed by closing remarks from Pedro.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] we have the first question from the phone line from Richard Sunderland from JPMorgan Chase.

[Richard Sunderland, analyst]

Maybe starting on offshore. You've been very clear on the challenging backdrop for offshore now versus when striking the Park City and Commonwealth contracts. Thinking about the restructuring gain earlier this year versus the current PPA challenges on those 2 projects, do you need to be successful in the renegotiations to realize this value?

I'm also curious what the range of options are for moving forward and the timing expectations for that process versus the 2027, 2028 CODs.

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

I think I'm going to take the lead on this one. I think, first of all, from a game point of view, I think we're very comfortable. The value, as you can see of just the leases of those projects is huge. So from that point of view, I think there is a value in those assets, whether you go ahead with the project now, later, or you just cancel them and start again, the leases are worth a lot.

So from that point of view, I think the value that we have agreed for our gain that you mentioned in the agreement with CIP, it's clearly a very good value for us, well below most of the comparable transactions just for even leases, okay?

Second, I think it's important that everything we're doing right now is what we do in many projects. We renegotiate. We've been working right now in onshore wind, solar projects that we're developing this year in renegotiating time lines, in renegotiating period of delivery and avoid tens and tens of millions of potential penalties.

We're doing the same thing here. There is a change -- a dramatic change in the world right now in many aspects that we have commented, and therefore, we believe these projects are the cheapest alternative for energy in New England by any -- without any doubt.

It doesn't matter what you compare this with. And therefore, we're not suggesting we want to make more money. We're just suggesting we need to find these projects back to the return we were expecting and basically not to lose money.

And it's a question of putting that on the table, which we are doing. And I think we are comfortable that this is something to work with many parties and we are working right now in the negotiations, many meetings already. This is a process that is going to take probably 9 months at least. So from that point of view, we are working as we do in other situations. So very comfortable in the -- in the process ahead of us either to renegotiate or to start again, but I think we're comfortable right now with the process and the arguments we're using.

[Richard Sunderland, analyst]

Got it. I appreciate the color there. So just to be clear, you see the value in terms of the gain is being derived from the leases rather than the contracts, meaning if you have to go into the process of getting for new contracts on a new RFP, there wouldn't be a change on the gain, is that the case?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

You can pick up one or the other one. If you conclude a successful renegotiation, the value is huge. If you saw the group they sold the asset in East of Anglia. And you saw they have sold the stake also in Wikinger. So if you have appropriate renegotiation, I think the value would be amazing, okay?

If you stay with the leases and you participate in an auction, you know how much it was paid in Carolinas and New York and other places. So you will see there is also hundreds of millions of value there, well above, in any case, the values that we have considered for the CIP agreement.

[Richard Sunderland, analyst]

Got it. That's very helpful. And then I just wanted to ask on the Sempra agreement. Can you speak a little bit more about either what you're evaluating or what the next steps could be here?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

I think on the Sempra agreement, again, we knew each other for a long time. And from that point of view, there are some times in life, either for financial discipline and complementary in terms of know-how by both that we're much better going together to such a massive development that you have ahead of us in the U.S. in hydrogen.

And therefore, they have, as you know, a very good gas business, gas infrastructure, et cetera. I think we know we are probably one of the leaders in renewables. I think we know that we are in the geographies where the ammonia, the hydrogen is needed. So from that point of view, let's get together, analyzed.

The next step is simple. I think we're going to conclude this analysis on specific projects, but for the time being, for confidential reasons, we don't mention where and what exactly we're doing, but I think it's probably 2, 3 months we should conclude those analysis and then go full speed, if we think it'll be successful.

[Richard Sunderland, analyst]

Got it. That's very helpful. And if I could just slip one more in here. You've spoken a lot about the activity on the rate front and on your developing regulatory relationships with the states, how do you see this from a higher level in terms of the discussions on the offshore contract side, the rate case stack drop and your relationships in the state, is there any trade-off between what you're asking for on the offshore side versus what you hope to achieve in terms of the regulated relationships? Or do you view that as completely separate processes?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

I mean the teams involved. Sometimes you have legal restrictions and regulatory restrictions that they need to be different. But I think the important thing is it shows the commitment AVANGRID has and Iberdrola Group to the region.

I think we're there to help the states to put on the table the energy that otherwise, they will not have. You see the news recently about the lack of oil, you know the potential issues of lack of gas. There are many issues.

Well, those are not to become less and less over time. They are to increase. I think we're working to bring energy, renewable energy and the cheapest possible you can find. So from that point of view, I think we're not negotiating like to oppose parties. This is a common objective and where we know one of the few people putting ideas on how to work together to a good future for the citizens of those states. So I think we're working together in the same direction.

[Operator]

We now have Insoo Kim of Goldman Sachs.

[Insoo Kim, analyst]

First question, just following up on the offshore wind PPA repricing process. I guess if we think about whether you do successfully, are you able to renegotiate through the states? Or if they offer a new competitive bidding process that you may re-enter into.

Are you still looking to -- in either auction, are you still looking to choose or stick to the option that gets you to the low teens levered returns? Or are you willing to I guess, accept the modestly lower return if you're able to at least get the current price restruck?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

I think the idea is to go back to the same return that we were expecting in the project when we put it on the table. So I think what has changed is that the world is different, the supply chain issues, the commodity prices, the delay in construction. So there are many things happening that were unexpected, even in the last 20 years, this has not happened at all. So I think the idea is to go back to the same numbers and economies we have before.

[Insoo Kim, analyst]

Okay. And then just from a legal perspective, is there any legal precedent for a competitively struck contract to -- through a regulatory system be repriced? Just trying to see if there is something that we can look to in history.

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

There are cases, I understand that there has been renegotiation in contracts. And then second, I understand also what we're trying to do here is to renegotiate within the framework of our contract, okay?

So we're not trying to go around or above the contract that we have that we believe has closes, same thing in the transmission line in Maine and same thing in the offer projects. We believe we think what is in the contracts, there is room for the requests we are doing.

[Insoo Kim, analyst]

Okay. Just one more. On NECEC, with the reman to the lower courts and but not being able to, I guess, recommence construction until at least the April 2023 trial concludes. Does this still keep you in that time line of year-end 2024? Or does this latest development will push it back a little bit?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

Catherine?

[Catherine Stempien, executive]

Yes. Insoo, this is Catherine. So what we said at the Investor Day was we currently had at that time, an in-service date of '24. But what we are really focused on is contract that we have with the EDCs, which requires us to have COD by April of 2025. So we're currently assessing the construction time line when we think that we'll be able to start construction after that expedited trial proceeding in front of the trial court and just looking to work with our contractors so that we can start construction soon thereafter and get going back on the project again.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

If I can, just to go back on the last set of questions, and I just want to pin it down a little bit more on the offshore considerations. If the Massachusetts Commission does not grant a higher PPA, will you move forward with the project?

Again, I just want to see if we can ask this in a more of a black and white kind of way.

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

The answer is we need to -- those revisions in order to continue with the project. We just need them.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Yes. You need them to move forward, right? I'm hearing you right?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

Yes, yes. No doubt. I mean we don't go to see regulators just trying to make more money. No, this is a very serious matter. With full transparency and putting everything happening on the table. That's why I think we're having good meetings so far in general. So that's -- but the answer is simple, yes, we need that.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Yes. I appreciate it. And then separately, does the change in the equity value here change your view about the relative merits of selling assets versus raising common equity here?

I get that the common equity timing might be somewhat delayed here given the close of PNM pushed into next year, et cetera. But can you talk about the desire to pursue more asset sales relative to the equity issuance outlined at the Analyst Day just considering higher rates, obviously impacting the stock price, but also impacting the asset sale market as well.

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

I think usually, the conclusion what you need to raise equity is because you need equity. I think for us, the message we've passed in the strategic presentation was clear. We maintain what we have told the market before, but we're going to focus on asset rotation.

And if PNM doesn't happen, we don't need to do any capital increase. Actually, we will be over levered -- over excess leverage capacity. And if PNM happens, we are still considering, as we said, at least $2 billion of asset rotation. So if that happens, then probably we will meet either all or part of that capital increase.

So the answer is yes. Of course, we always keep in mind the price. But I don't think the price or the share price is what drives the divestitures. The divestiture is something we're analyzing, and we'll try to get that done as we have done in the group for 20 years, nonstop and we have always delivered.

So it's not really because of the price that we will do more or less divestitures. We'll do as many divestitures as needed because they make sense. I think that will be the driver for doing it.

[Julien Dumoulin-Smith, analyst]

Right. But let me put it this way. If I can take your temperature on the asset sale market. I mean, how is that market evolving here? Obviously, we see the equity price where it is. Do you still see a robust buyer backdrop and especially sort of relative right, as I think about it, if asset valuations are sustained relative to stock price, you would think that, that would be on the margin a little bit more of an interesting avenue. But as you say, time line is important to watch here as well, right?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

I think asset valuations, we can go back to the 2005, 2006. I think there is a moment that you review history, and I thought that was going to be all-time high in multiples of sales.

And then there was another deal. And then there was another one. I think the amount of money you know that is right now on the table because of funds, because of other companies, they need renewables. They need regulated assets. It's unlimited and it's unbelievable compared with 10, 15 years ago. You see recent transactions involving a German company and a U.S. company, you see another U.S. company with Total . I mean you can go one by one. I think you always thought maybe this is when things are going to change.

I don't think there is even one feeling that I have that the appetite of the people I usually deal with that they're interested in either buying things or doing things with us has been reduced. It's the contrary. I think the appetite is there and very good relationships, and I think there is an interest.

[Operator]

We now have the next question from Michael Sullivan of Wolfe Research.

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

I wanted to start with just the quarter and the year-to-date results. If I'm doing the math right, it looks like the implied Q4 earnings are going to be down about $0.09, $0.10 year-over-year at the midpoint of your guide.

Are there any headwinds that we should be aware of as we just think about the next quarter? Or is it just conservatism and just reaffirming the guide?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

Patricia?

[Patricia Cosgel, executive]

Sure. Yes. I mean we are confident in our guidance, which is why we reiterated it today. We don't do quarterly estimates. So we just kind of put out that year-to-date information with our annual guidance number.

I think we highlighted some risks and opportunities that are always focus on in the year-to-date into the quarter. So just to reiterate kind of for the fourth quarter, we will definitely have some incremental benefits from the rate cases if we look on a year-over-year basis.

But we do have risks and opportunities, and those relate to wind production and pricing, thermal asset management, variability in results. Now it includes even as we get to the end of the year, we do tax true-ups. We look at how we're performing against some of our reliability and customer service metrics.

So there could be regulatory adjustments that are related to that. And then we were kind of watching -- any regulatory development could happen or trends in uncollectibles, things like that. I can't -- we haven't -- those are the things we've highlighted on the call and those things that have been impacting us year-to-date or in prior years as well.

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

Okay. But it sounds like there's no specific items from last year's quarter that we should be backing out or mindful of?

[Patricia Cosgel, executive]

I think what we -- I think that there's -- it's just really more a continuation of what's going on. There might be little things, but not a big item.

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

Okay. And then as we think about next year, just wanted to understand a little bit better the base business.

So I think you pointed out some of the kind of bigger moving pieces year-over-year, like offshore wind gain, I think you had a Kitty Hawk sale in there as well and then obviously, PNM for half the year. But as we think about excluding that, what are the drivers? Is the base business growing at all or not?

[Patricia Cosgel, executive]

So some of the things that we're looking at is if you look at the renewables business, we do have just under 600 megawatts in construction. We have new assets that were -- just went COD.

This year, we just announced Lund Hill. So that will have a positive impact year-over-year. We have a couple of other projects as well that will be COD. So those will have an impact on year-over-year. And then we're looking at the timing of rate cases.

I mean, we might not have a decision until later in the year, but there might be similar to what we had in the New York rate settlement in the past where we had a decision at the end of the year, but there was sort of a true-up that happened later on in the year. So those are some of the things to consider.

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

Okay. And then last one, just on the New York rate case. Can you just summarize the CLCPA upside, what you filed and what staff is recommending?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

Catherine?

[Catherine Stempien, executive]

Yes, I'll take this one. So the New York rate case gets complicated because of the legislation with the CLCPA that got filed. So our rate case filing contained base CapEx that we see is needed for the resiliency of the grid as well as proposals under both Phase 1 CLCPA and Phase 2 of CLCPA.

And if you recall, Phase 1 are those reliability projects that we have accelerated within our service territory and Phase 2 projects are projects that are needed to bring renewable production down the state. And so those Phase 2 projects are anticipated to be spread across all of the state as opposed to just within the NYSEG RG&E service territory.

So in total, our filing amounted to about $8.6 billion worth of investment and $2.9 million of that was CLCPA. When we look at the staff testimony, they had a higher weighting of expenditures in CLCPA than in base CapEx, but as Pedro said, overall, as they -- as their testimony came in, their rate increase was approximately 20% versus our 26% on the base P&D rates.

So we're looking forward to entering into negotiations with staff and with other interveners to really talk about what's the base CapEx and what are the clean energy kind of requirements for New York investments in order for them to meet their aggressive timeline for the clean energy transition.

[Michael Sullivan, analyst]

Sorry, just to be really clear, the $2.9 billion you filed that -- understand there's moving pieces, but what is the apples-to-apples staff number on that?

[Catherine Stempien, executive]

It's hard to put exactly the pieces because they excluded all of the Phase 2, pushed that off on most of those investments are investments that we would be making and putting into rate base post 2026. So they're really focused on the portion of -- it's a little bit over $1.5 billion on the Phase 2 -- Phase 1 investments, rather.

And so they would accelerate a large part about $900 million of those Phase 1 investments into the rate case here. Our rate case proposal was focused more on the base CapEx needs of the system.

So if you compare, again, if you look at what they ask for versus -- or what their testimony supported versus what we requested, they're not that far off. It's just a mix of how you get to that total rate impact and the CapEx investments needed for the system.

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

And remember in our base case for the projections in our steel plant a month ago, we assume nothing in CLCPA, okay? So it'd be important if anything into the model about CLCPA.

[Operator]

We now have the next question from David Arcaro from Morgan Stanley.

[David Arcaro, analyst]

Could you just give an update on what you're seeing for the inflationary backdrop? Just any inflationary pressure on O&M, whether it's labor, materials, components, other things in the business right now?

[Patricia Cosgel, executive]

Sure. So I guess I'd just like to say in terms of inflation, we -- there certainly are impacts on labor and there's certainly impact on cost. But I think in our Networks business, we have -- it is really about 80% of our net income and our earnings we're pretty well protected over time because our commodity prices are passed through.

When we're looking at gas and commodity costs, we lack at those, we don't purchase them all at once, and we store them for the winter. We were also entered into rate case filings where we have included updated inflation estimates and we actually have request for inflation trackers in those cases.

And going forward, we're looking at a strategy where we minimize the gap between rates. So we are updating and accounting for these new costs going forward. And then just a reminder that the transmission rates are reconciled annually.

We look at on the offshore businesses. As Pedro had mentioned, we actually have secured all the solar panels for 2024 and we have been renegotiating successfully some contracts to adjust inflation as well as supply chain challenges. And then finally, if we look at our offshore renewable project, Vineyard Wind 1, we've secured all the CapEx, and we're actually actively and on target with our construction. So we have -- do not have that exposure for that project.

And we've spent some time already talking about future projects beyond our plan and offshore and how we're addressing that.

[David Arcaro, analyst]

Got it. That's really helpful color. I appreciate it. And then back on just the asset recycling potential here for $2 billion of proceeds going forward. I was just wondering if you could give your latest thinking around what assets could get priority, which might have the most interest in the market, most appeal in the market?

And would you also be considering minority interest sales in regulated utilities?

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

I think the appetite for our assets, I think, is any of the assets. I think you know that a lot of people are keen on renewable assets. A lot of people are keen on minority stakes in businesses, not in regulated only, but also in renewable companies.

So from that point of view, I think we just -- we're just reviewing the portfolio, making sure we put on the table the right approach. And I think we will go into action very soon. So from that point of view, I think we don't rule out anything.

Probably the first focus for us is the renewable business, where we have a lot of assets, and I think there is a lot of appetite for those assets and probably that should be the first area of focus for us in terms of opportunities in that asset rotation.

[Operator]

We now have a question on the line from Angie Storozynski from Seaport Research Partners.

[Agnieszka Storozynski, analyst]

So my first question is about what we've seen in Nova Scotia, the proposal to cap customer utility rates, nonfuel rates and how you actually see this risk in New England or Northeast in general, given how high electric customer bills are about to go?

And then secondly, the PURA decision about the implementation of bill discounts for low-income customers and how you're going to recover those discounts in cash in your future rate cases.

[Catherine Stempien, executive]

Thanks, Angie. So first, with respect to your first question, I kind of see it as the risk with respect to rising cost and will that follow over on to utility rates. And that's why we're focused so much on affordability for our customers.

And when we found our rate case is really focused on balancing the needs of the system with the affordability of that. But our systems really do require investment, and I think our regulators and stakeholders understand that reliability is a priority, especially as we move into change in climate and also the aggressive goals that our states have with respect to clean energy.

So it's all a balance when we talk about that and look for various REIT mitigators to help smooth out that transition for our customers. With respect to low income, a couple of things there. First, in our Connecticut rate case, we actually, for the first time, had offered up a special rate for low-income customers that's directly in response to some of the feedback that we have had from some of our stakeholders.

And so we'll be discussing that type of a proposal in Connecticut and see what the appetite is for that proposal. Then with respect to our existing kind of rates in our customers, we're really proud of the work that we were able to do in New York in order to get some arrearages paid off for some of those low-income customers.

And those were accessed from funds that the New York State legislature had set aside to particularly target the impacts of COVID on low income customers. We're continuing to look for options like that on a federal and a state level to see if we can work with our states as well as with, for instance, the joint utility group in New York to see if there's additional funds that we can access to help those particularly vulnerable customers.

[Operator]

We have no further questions. So I'd like to hand it back to AVANGRID's CEO, Pedro Azagra for some final remarks.

[Pedro Azagra Blázquez, executive]

Okay. So to close today's call, I'd like to bring you back to one simple question, why AVANGRID? Why us? As part of our plan is a commitment to execution as well as decisive focus on regulated growth and value creation.

And also, our company is -- our heart is our regulated utility business, which is contemplated by additional renewables opportunities. This unique and balanced mix positions us to accelerate transformation in the energy sector for multiple angles. Across all sectors, businesses are facing a challenging economic environment in the near term.

We are responding with realistic targets and a steady disciplined approach, knowing that the wait is in the longer term is at our back. The energy transition is here to stay. There is no turning back and diversified utility companies like ours are poised to benefit.

As we look at the next 3 years, we expect to grow our earnings and adjusted earnings per share at a healthy compound annual growth rate of 6%, 7%. We don't announce quarterly guidance, we just go to annual, and I think we're comfortable to provide a clear guidance of '23 versus '24 and '25 to make it always very clear what we're expecting year-over-year on a compound basis for the period.

Our core regulated network business continues to be our key driver for growth, representing as we discussed, approximately 80% of our planned investments. We are determined to maintain a supportive balance sheet and leverage value-creating opportunities like asset rotation and partnerships to further improve our position while maintaining our credit ratings and strong liquidity.

We are closely aligned with accelerating the state and federal policy targets ahead of many of our peers. And as a result, we are positioning ourselves to deliver investments in offshore wind, onshore renewables and transmission that we create jobs, stimulate economic development and support our own long-term growth as well.

Furthermore, we have substantial upside opportunities to generate value over and above what is assumed in our plan, including approximately $2 billion in asset rotation option, incremental investments in our rate case proposal and unprecedented policy support from the IRA.

Our justice is execution, execution and execution as our team works to deliver, we will benefit very step up the way from the strong backing of Iberdrola. Its strongest global expertise and proven track record of success. Thank you again for joining us today on our third quarter call. If you have any other questions, please follow up with Alvaro and the IR team, and have a great day. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you all for joining. That does conclude today's call. Have a lovely day. You may now disconnect your lines.