Arcosa Inc

NYSE:ACA

Earnings Call Analysis

Arcosa Anticipates Growth and Improved Margins for 2024

Arcosa reported an impressive 2023 with a favorable outcome in its growth businesses and cyclical industries. Adjusted EBITDA soared by 38% due to a 17% revenue increase and an expansion in EBITDA margin by 220 basis points year-over-year. Notably, the Transportation Products revenue surged 49%, with EBITDA increasing by 67%, owing to volume and price hikes, leading to a 150 basis points margin expansion. They expect to persist in this trajectory with a 2024 revenue projection of $2.59 billion, marking a 12% uptick from 2023, and a forecast adjusted EBITDA of $400 million, 16% above the prior year's, factoring out a one-time $22 million land sale gain. Their adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to climb another 40 basis points to 15.4%. Capital expenditures for the year are anticipated between $175 million to $190 million, with growth CapEx between $55 million to $60 million. The company closed the year with a strong balance sheet, notably characterized by $523 million in accessible liquidity and no pressing debt maturities.

2023: A Year of Robust Operational and Financial Growth for Arcosa

Arcosa has presented a commendable performance in 2023 with double-digit growth in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA, surpassing their initial forecasts for the year. They achieved a 17% revenue increase and a 38% rise in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, showing strong momentum across all segments. The disposal of the storage tank business was a notable strategic shift that helped the company focus on more lucrative areas, leading to an operational and financial uplift. Arcosa demonstrated their ability to drive improvements, particularly, the Transportation Products business saw its adjusted EBITDA more than double, evidencing successful execution and positioning for an anticipated upcycle in the industry.

Segment Performance Shines, Highlighting Pricing Power and Volume Growth

Construction Products saw a 7% revenue increase, driven by robust pricing and organic and acquisition-related volume growth. Adjusted segment EBITDA rose by the same percentage, indicative of a strong pricing environment and operational improvements. The natural aggregates sub-segment experienced organic pricing gains in the mid-teens, forecasting continued pricing momentum. Similarly, the utility, wind, and related structures businesses grew revenues by 15% with an 89% EBITDA increase, reflecting higher volumes and favorable market conditions. Transportation Products outshined with a 49% revenue jump, led by the barge business benefiting from higher volumes and pricing, culminating in a 67% rise in adjusted EBITDA.

Cash Flow and Capital Expenditures Reflect Strategic Growth Investments

Arcosa generated a substantial free cash flow of $10 million during the quarter, a dramatic improvement from the $60 million deficit in the prior year’s corresponding period. The yearly free cash flow increased by 37% to $94 million, a testament to the company’s stronger net earnings and efficient capital management. With capital expenditures of $204 million in line with forecasts, Arcosa strategically invested in organic growth initiatives that are set to bolster future performance. Looking ahead, they plan to further deploy capital for growth, with expected expenditures totaling $175 million to $190 million in 2024.

Solid Foundation for 2024: Capital Strength and Upside Guidance

Arcosa foresees a depreciation, depletion, and amortization expense in the range of approximately $178 million to $183 million, up from the previous year due to recent large-scale projects and ongoing investment. Ending the year with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 1.3x, the company managed to maintain a strong financial position, with robust liquidity of $523 million and no pressing debt obligations. For 2024, they have set optimistic revenue guidance at $2.59 billion, a 12% increase from 2023, with adjusted EBITDA expected to reach $400 million, marking a 16% year-over-year rise and implying a margin improvement of approximately 40 basis points.

Looking Ahead: Sector-Specific Prospects Indicate Continued Strong Performance

Utility and related structures are gearing up for a stronger 2024, backed by supportive market trends and anticipated volume growth. In addition, the wind towers business, with its $1 billion backlog providing visibility until 2028, is positioned for growth as consumer interest in onshore wind projects intensifies. Meanwhile, the barge business is set for further expansion with improving market conditions, proactive strategic sourcing, and new orders signaling broadening demand. Arcosa thus enters the new year with a positive outlook, ready to take advantage of robust market fundamentals and a balance between growth initiatives and operational leverage.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Arcosa Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Todd, and I will be your conference coordinator today. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Now I would like to turn the call over to your host, Erin Drabek, Director of Investor Relations for Arcosa. Ms. Drabek, you may begin.

[Erin Drabek, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Arcosa's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. With me today are Antonio Carrillo, President and CEO; and Gail Peck, CFO. A question-and-answer session will follow their prepared remarks.

A copy of yesterday's press release and the slide presentation for this morning's call are posted on our Investor Relations website, ir.arcosa.com. A replay of today's call will be available for the next 2 weeks. Instructions for accessing the replay number are included in the press release. A replay of the webcast will be available for 1 year on our website under the News and Events tab.

Today's comments and presentation slides contain financial measures that have not been prepared in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the closest GAAP measure are included in the appendix of the slide presentation.

In addition, today's conference call contains forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements. Please refer to the company's SEC filings for more information on these risks and uncertainties, including the press release we filed yesterday and our Form 10-K expected to be filed later today.

I would now like to turn the call over to Antonio.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Thank you, Erin. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results and the outlook for 2024. I will start with a few key messages.

2023 represented another solid year of operational and financial performance for Arcosa. Our success reflects the effective execution of our strategy and the talent and dedication of our outstanding team. Normalizing for the sale of the storage tank business, Arcosa generated double-digit growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for 2023, outpacing the guidance we set at the beginning of the year. Additionally, we drove solid improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin, reflecting a favorable pricing environment, increased operational leverage in our Transportation Products business and the benefit of wind tower tax credits.

Finally, we reported 50% increase in full year operating cash flow that helped fund key growth initiatives. Strategically, we continue to advance our objectives and position our portfolio for sustainable long-term growth. Following the divestiture of the storage tank business in the fourth quarter of 2022, we redeployed a portion of the sale proceeds to strengthen our Construction Products segment.

Over the past year, we closed 6 bolt-on acquisitions, expanding our geographic presence in key natural and recycled aggregates markets, including Florida, and enhancing our capabilities in trench shoring. Consistent with our disciplined approach to capital allocation, these strategic acquisitions were completed at attractive valuations. We also progressed on several important organic initiatives, which included the expansion of our specialty plaster capacity, completion of our new concrete pole facility in Florida as well as the build-out of our wind tower facility in New Mexico, which we expect will deliver its first tower midyear.

Looking broadly at our 2023 performance, our growth businesses benefited from healthy market fundamentals, proactive pricing actions and reduced inflationary pressures as the year progressed. Our cyclical businesses performed well, led by our Transportation Products business, where adjusted EBITDA more than doubled. Operationally, our wind tower business outperformed our expectations in 2023 and achieved EBITDA profitability for the year, exclusive of tax spreads, reflecting our focus on optimizing our production and managing costs as we prepare for an anticipated multiyear upcycle.

Turning to our fourth quarter results on Slide 11. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA grew 38% on revenue growth of 17%. Similar to our full year results, growth was driven by increases across all 3 segments. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin gained 220 basis points year-over-year, benefiting from higher barge and rail component production, increased volume in utility structures and a favorable impact from wind tax credits. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet and ample liquidity, providing the flexibility to invest in growth initiatives while returning cash to shareholders.

I will now turn over the call to Gail to discuss our segment performance, and then I will return to update you on our 2024 outlook. Gail?

[Gail Peck, executive]

Thank you, Antonio. I'll begin on Slide 12 to discuss fourth quarter segment results. In Construction Products, revenues increased 7% primarily due to higher pricing across our aggregates and specialty materials businesses and both organic and acquisition-related volume growth in our shoring business. On a freight-adjusted basis, segment revenues increased 10% year-over-year. Adjusted segment EBITDA increased 7%, reflecting strong pricing gains as well as operational improvements in our specialty materials business. Excluding land sales from both quarters, adjusted segment EBITDA increased 14% year-over-year, and freight-adjusted segment EBITDA margin improved 90 basis points driven by unit profitability gains and reduced inflationary pressures.

Turning to natural aggregates. Average organic pricing was up low double digits year-over-year on a freight-adjusted basis, with pricing gains across our footprint. Pricing strength was notable in the quarter, especially when compared to strong pricing growth achieved in last year's fourth quarter. Volumes increased low single digits, led by our Texas region, which benefited from favorable weather compared to last year, an uptick in residential activity and the contribution of the new greenfield location in Central Texas.

For the full year, organic pricing grew in the mid-teens, positioning us well for continued pricing momentum in 2024. Full year natural aggregates volumes were roughly flat with the prior year as the volume increase in the back half of the year offset a first half decline. In recycled aggregates, we achieved broad-based pricing strength that more than offset a roughly 20% volume decline, resulting in strong product unit profitability gains and margin expansion. Earlier in the quarter, we entered the Central Florida recycling market with a small acquisition, and the integration is progressing smoothly.

Within Specialty Materials, we continue to see healthy demand, particularly for our plaster and lightweight product lines, which had solid pricing gains during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved year-over-year, positively impacting the segment margin by roughly 35 basis points as we continue to focus on operational improvements and increased throughput in our plaster facility. Finally, our trench shoring business reported a 14% increase in revenues on higher organic volumes as well as contribution from the Houston acquisition completed in the first quarter. Margin expanded nicely, and order levels remained healthy.

Moving to Engineered Structures on Slide 13. Revenues for our utility, wind and related structures businesses increased 15%, largely due to higher volumes in utility structures. Adjusted segment EBITDA for these businesses increased 89%, and margin expanded 530 basis points. During the quarter, we recognized $10.6 million in AMP tax credits, resulting in full year net tax credits of $25 million, exceeding the high end of our expectations by about $3 million due to additional guidance issued by the IRS in December. This guidance allowed the recognition of tax credits for towers started in 2022 and delivered in 2023.

Fourth quarter margin for our utility structures business improved both year-over-year and sequentially from the third quarter. We expect customer mix to remain a headwind in the first half of 2024, but we remain focused on continuing to enhance margins in this business. We ended the year with combined backlog for utility, wind and related structures of $1.4 billion, more than double our backlog at the end of 2022.

Turning to Transportation Products on Slide 14. Revenues were up 49%. And volumes and pricing increased across the segment led by our barge business. Adjusted segment EBITDA increased 67%, resulting in margin expansion of 150 basis points, despite some additional costs incurred by the barge business early in the quarter to address low river water levels. We received barge orders of $86 million during the quarter, all for '24 delivery, which substantially fills our planned production capacity for the year. We ended the year with barge backlog of $254 million, up 13% year-over-year.

I'll conclude on Slide 16 with some comments on our cash flow and balance sheet position. During the quarter, we generated $10 million of free cash flow, up from a deficit of $60 million in last year's fourth quarter, driven by a combination of stronger net earnings and lower working capital requirements, adjusted for the buildup of the wind tower tax credit.

For the full year, free cash flow increased 37% to $94 million. Capital expenditures in 2023 were $204 million, in line with the midpoint of our annual guidance. During the year, we invested significantly to complete several key organic growth initiatives across Engineered Structures and Construction Products. Additionally, we have made substantial progress on the wind tower facility in New Mexico since announcing the project at the end of the first quarter. We expect to deploy approximately $15 million of additional CapEx in the first half of the year to complete the project.

In late third quarter, we also commenced the build-out of a new galvanizing line in one of our utility structures facilities in Mexico to optimize our costs. We anticipate it will be operational by the end of the year. For modeling purposes, we see full year 2024 CapEx of $175 million to $190 million. This range includes growth CapEx of $55 million to $60 million that is expected to be more first half-weighted based on the timing of projects.

We forecast depreciation, depletion and amortization expense to be in the range of approximately $178 million to $183 million, up $21 million year-over-year at the midpoint of the range, reflecting the full year impact of large organic projects completed in 2023 and additional investment in 2024. We anticipate a full year 2024 effective tax rate of 17% to 18%, taking into consideration the expected impact from AMP tax credits in our wind towers business.

Wrapping up. We ended the year with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 1.3x, up from 1x at the end of the third quarter as we borrowed an additional $60 million under our revolving credit facility in December to help fund the Florida hard rock acquisition in natural aggregates. We ended 2024 with a strong balance sheet with available liquidity of $523 million and no material near-term debt maturities.

I will now turn the call back over to Antonio for more discussion on our 2024 outlook.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Thank you, Gail. Turning to Slide 18. Looking ahead to 2024, Arcosa is well positioned for continued growth. The infrastructure-led demand environment across our portfolio remains favorable. And we expect continued expansion in our growth businesses, complemented by improving production volumes in our cyclical businesses.

From a CapEx perspective, we expect another year of significant investment as Gail mentioned. In addition to our wind tower plant in New Mexico and the new galvanizing line in utility structures, we expect to continue to pursue financially accretive acquisitions that strengthen our capabilities and increase our margins.

In summary, we forecast a 2024 revenue at the midpoint of our guidance to be $2.59 billion, up 12% compared to 2023. Our 2024 adjusted EBITDA forecast at the midpoint of our guidance is $400 million, up 16% year-over-year, excluding the $22 million land sale gain recognized in the first quarter of 2023. The midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guidance implies an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%, up approximately 40 basis points compared to 2023 as we further optimize our profitability.

Turning to Slide 19 to review our outlook for our growth businesses. We anticipate a solid year for our Construction Products. On the demand front, we expect positive contributions from highway and infrastructure project activity as well as growth in heavy industrial construction and multifamily residential in certain markets. As I noted last quarter, the single-family residential construction market appears to have stabilized, but it's not yet clear when housing starts will return to consistent growth.

Across our construction materials business, we expect overall organic growth to be roughly flat versus prior year. Importantly, inclement weather in January is expected to weigh on first quarter results. We expect our 2023 acquisitions should contribute positively with an accretive overall margin. Pricing remains attractive, and we continue to be focused on driving unit profitability and margin improvement through 2024.

Utility and related structures are poised for a stronger year in 2024, recovering from operational performance challenges in the second half of 2023. Market conditions remain supportive for continued volume growth. Overall, our utility customers' forward-looking CapEx programs are at higher spending levels with a focus on electric grid hardening initiatives and the ongoing transition to alternative energy sources. Meanwhile, our traffic business should benefit from continued favorable infrastructure spending, particularly within our faster-growing Southeast market. Due to the expected -- to expected customer and product mix in our utility structures backlog, we anticipate stronger EBITDA in the second half of 2024 relative to the first half. We were pleased with the sequential margin improvement in the fourth quarter and are committed to building on that progress through 2024.

Turning to Slide 20. 2023 was a transition year for our wind towers business in which we built backlog in preparation for a multiyear upcycle. Our current backlog of approximately $1 billion provides solid production visibility to 2028. While we did not book any additional orders during the fourth quarter, consumer interest in onshore wind projects remains high. And as projects move further along the planning stage, inquiries should convert into additional backlog. Meanwhile, we remain focused on the start-up of the New Mexico facility to support the expected production ramp-up in 2024 and beyond. As our wind tower production volume scales, we plan to continue to invest to strengthen our capabilities and enhance our manufacturing flexibility.

Turning to Slide 21. Our barge business generated significantly stronger results in 2023 as volume and pricing improved from the 2022 cyclical lows. We remain well positioned for further expansion in 2024 as the market continues to recover. We expect to be selective with our orders, prioritizing those that enhance our profitability and generate incremental operating leverage as volume scales. Although steel prices remain elevated, customers have responded favorably when we are successful with strategic sourcing, evidenced by our 1.2x book-to-bill in the fourth quarter.

Additionally, our ability to substitute lower-priced cost roll coil for plate steel in the manufacturing process provides manufacturing flexibility. Strengthening customer demand for barges is evident not only in the fourth quarter revenue, which nearly doubled from the prior year, but also in our backlog, which grew 13% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. We're also encouraged by new liquid barge orders in the fourth quarter, a trend that may point to broadening market demand as we enter 2024. As a result, we have substantially filled our production capacity for 2024, and we are focused on extending our backlog into 2025. Overall, we expect another strong year for our barge business in 2024 with higher production volume and further improvement in profitability.

In our steel components business, the outlook remains positive as market demand is expected to be stable. In addition, we anticipate a more balanced competitive environment for our freight railcar copper products following the favorable outcome of the trade case against China and Mexico, which has positive implications for both the new railcar and maintenance market. With North American railcar deliveries forecast to remain at stable replacement levels, we anticipate our steel components business will generate further gains in profitability on moderate revenue growth.

In closing, Arcosa delivered strong financial performance in 2023, and we enter 2024 with positive momentum. Across our businesses, we remain focused on operational execution, portfolio optimization and capital allocation, both organically and through acquisitions for growth businesses. We expect healthy market fundamentals to continue to drive solid results in our growth businesses, while our cyclical businesses are poised to benefit from increased production and greater operating leverage. We will continue to advance our strategic objectives while investing to capture future growth opportunities across our portfolio.

Operator, now I would like to open the call for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens.

[Trey Grooms, analyst]

Antonio and Gail, congrats on a strong finish to the year.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Thank you, Trey.

[Trey Grooms, analyst]

You guys continue to execute well on -- and are making nice progress on filling out the construction products, assets through acquisitions. And Antonio, I know there is a strategic focus to continue to simplify the overall asset portfolio and simplify the story, and you guys have made large strides there. Clearly, selling the storage tank business is part of that as well.

But can you update us on kind of where you are in that thought -- or where your thoughts are on that process? And given where we are with the more cyclical businesses starting to kind of start to improve there and just update on those thoughts, please?

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Sure, Trey, and let me give you the big picture. I think you're absolutely right, the way you described it. We have -- and we want to continue to allocate capital into our growth business. As you know, we define our growth businesses as the Construction segment and the Engineered Structures. We see very good opportunities to continue to redeploy capital. We're building a nice pipeline, strengthening our M&A, a small group that we have internally. So we want to continue to expand our capabilities to deploy capital. That's on the redeployment.

On the simplification, it continues to be a priority for us. As I've said before, M&A has a life of its own. It happens when it needs to happen, when the businesses are ready, when the market is in the right time. So what I can tell you is we will continue to pursue that simplification. And we will continue to pursue the reallocation of capital, both in construction and Engineered Structures. So it's top of mind for us and for our Board and for everyone in the company.

[Trey Grooms, analyst]

All right. Antonio, also maybe switching gears just a little bit. There was -- if you could maybe just touch on the demand trends that you're seeing across -- you mentioned residential, maybe starting to see some improvement there. But if you could also maybe touch on the parts of your business, particularly in construction, that touch the nonres and infrastructure. Could you kind of talk about what you're seeing in the demand trends in those end markets as well as we look into '24?

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Sure. As I mentioned on the residential side, we've seen a stabilization of the demand. As Gail mentioned, our volumes in the second half of the year were better than the first half last year. So I think we've seen kind of a bottom. And at the same time, we see very good progress and very strong demand from the infrastructure side. We also see a very nice -- and we expect more on the heavy industrial side. There's a significant trend, I think, across the country on the industrialization of the whole country, not only heavy industrial, but also when you see the AI revolution happening, there's going to be a lot of infrastructure that needs to be developed there.

There's a lot of -- on the energy side, power plants and all sorts of energy-related infrastructure. So I am very optimistic on the industrial side on the -- and that part of the equation. And then multifamily is a regional thing, places were seeing better trends than in others. So it's a little more spotty. But the good news is since we spun, we've grown our footprint. So now we have a lot more exposure than just Texas. So of course, that creates some variability. But at the same time, we are -- I think with the acquisitions we've done, we're getting into markets that are very, very attractive.

[Trey Grooms, analyst]

Perfect.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

As an example, no, we -- just to finish my comment, we closed in -- the acquisition of the hard rock. If you remember in the third quarter, we announced the recycled aggregates in Florida also. So what that proves is that our method of going and setting a foot somewhere, then opportunities start coming to us, and we want to continue to build around our footprint.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Julio Romero with Sidoti & Company.

[Alex Hantman, analyst]

This is Alex on for Julio. My first question is on the guidance and seasonality. Can you speak to what's expected from guidance from a segment perspective in terms of seasonality? Curious which of the business units are expected to follow a traditional seasonal cadence versus -- pardon me, versus a more sequential ramp as they progress through the year.

[Gail Peck, executive]

Alex, this is Gail. I'll take that. That's a good question. As we've said in our comments, as we look to 2024, we see the EBITDA more second half-weighted. And there's a few things that are driving that.

As you're questioning on seasonality, that's certainly one of them. Q1 is normally our most seasonally slow quarter for construction. We did have -- we commented in the scripts that we did face some tough weather in January. So we will have that. We'll fight that headwind in Q1 along with the normal weather seasonality that was in construction for sure, given the outdoor nature of the business. But we felt that weather impact pretty broadly across our portfolio with freezing temperatures and rain where we had some downtime in -- actually in our manufacturing facilities. But we'll push through that.

So you have the typical seasonality with Q1. I think we've been pretty transparent with the large land sale that we had in Q1 last year. So that won't repeat in Q1. And we've given our guidance impacts excluding the land sale. So kind of apart from those typical things, as I think about the businesses, utility structures is another one where we mentioned the second half stronger than the first half. Maybe I would even go so broad as to say the engineered segment is going to be more weighted towards the second half. And there's a few things driving that.

First is the fact as we look at our customer mix in utility structures and how the project timing and the cadence of that, we see a better mix in the second half than the first half. Still very strong demand drivers, robust outlook for that business, but that's the way it plays out based on the backlog visibility we have today.

When you think about -- the other impact to second half for the segment, I would call out the start-up of our new facilities, both the Belen, New Mexico wind tower facility. That will be a drag on first half EBITDA, contributing in the second half. So that's going to be impactful to the cadence as well as the new concrete pole facility within utility structures, we finished that in -- virtually in December of last year.

So we will see positive contributions from that, accretive to the overall segment in the fourth quarter, but there's going to be a climb associated with the ramp-up of that as well. I think the only other place maybe where you might see a slight second half step up to first half would be in barge as we continue to ramp the business. But I think those are the general view of the world as we see it here in February for 2024.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Let me just complement something that I think Gail mentioned it, but I want to -- if you think of Arcosa through 2024, as I mentioned, we closed 2023 strong. We entered into 2024, we're ramping up their concrete [indiscernible] plant. We're ramping up -- we already have a lot of employees in Berlin. They're starting to cold plate, roll plate, well plate. But we are building a tremendous amount of cost in the plant as we go through the first half of the year until they start producing.

And once they start producing, efficiency is very slow climbing. So you have the new concrete pole plant, you have the Berlin plant, you have ramp-up in both of the barge plants. You have a ramp-up in another wind tower plant. So Arcosa is building up capacity as we go through the year and carrying all those costs and inefficiencies as we build up. And as we exit 2024, we should have a very strong manufacturing capacity and ready for the upcycle that we expect.

[Alex Hantman, analyst]

Antonio, great context. And one follow-up and final question for me on the Engineered Structures segment. Curious about the customer hesitation or general sentiment around final guidelines on the 10% domestic content bonus. Curious just how you expect orders and overall demand to trend after that guidance is finalized.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

We really don't expect a lot of -- we have not heard of any pushback from our customers at the moment. So we don't expect any impact to our guidance or to our backlogs with this new guidance. So we're not concerned about it.

[Gail Peck, executive]

Yes. And I guess I would just add, Alex, as it relates to the IRA. Most of the -- virtually all the impacts related to wind have really played out the way we anticipated. So we're pleased with the way things have rolled out on that side.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Yes. And we -- if you remember, most of our manufacturing with the exception of 2 plants in the U.S., so we are very focused on U.S. manufacturing, and that's been our focus.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Jean Ramirez with D.A. Davidson.

[Jean Paul Ramirez, analyst]

Just looking at the legal challenges to the [indiscernible] project, what's the feedback from that customer regarding plans and proposed delivery schedules going forward? How does that look?

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

We haven't heard anything. So we are -- we don't -- we haven't heard any feedback from the customer or from anything else. So we keep going.

[Jean Paul Ramirez, analyst]

Okay. And just piggybacking off the previous question, so the -- any additional inputs from treasury that -- changing the expectations around the credits for the towers. So there's -- looking at your guidance for 2024, so there's no -- you're not expecting any changes into your guidance for how you're utilizing your tax credits then?

[Gail Peck, executive]

So I'll take that, Alex. So how we recognize and account for our tax credits, very similar to 2023. We are rolling those in as a reduction of cost of sales. So no change in regard to that. And generally, as you think about the tax credit, we really manage the business holistically for total EBITDA and total profitability. But as we ramp in wind tower and we expect revenues to grow in wind tower, we would expect the tax credit to grow along with that. Probably there are things, as I've talked about before, that impact the size of the credit. Certainly, the wattage of the turbine, is it a 3-section or 4-section tower, but those things aside, I think generally, we can expect to see the tax credit grow in line with revenue growth, all else being equal. So not that impactful to overall margin because it's going to grow in line with revenue, but certainly it's going to add to our EBITDA growth in 2024.

[Jean Paul Ramirez, analyst]

Perfect. And just one more for me. You would talk about price momentum going into 2024 for aggregates. Is -- are you guys considering any midyear price increases?

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

Normally, we do a price increase in the middle of the year. So yes, we expect to continue to raise prices wherever we can.

[Gail Peck, executive]

And I would just say, Alex, at this juncture, given it's so early in the year, we don't roll those into our guidance, but certainly taking a very price-disciplined approach.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital Markets.

[Garik Shmois, analyst]

Congrats on the quarter. I was hoping, first, if you could go over the variance within your revenue guidance. What would have to happen to reach the low end and the high end of the 6% to 18% range that you've offered?

[Gail Peck, executive]

I'll take that, Garik. See if I can pull some of it apart for you. There's a lot of moving parts, as you know. I think as we think about our cyclical businesses, and maybe I'll start there. We've got good backlog visibility. So when you think about our barge business, we have $255 million of backlog at the end of 2023. We said that is all for 2024 delivery. We've substantially filled our production plans, and we're taking order inquiries for 2025.

So you look at the ramp, you look at where we finish 2023, we have our marine components revenue in addition to our backlog. So you could be approaching close to 20% revenue growth in the barge business. With the backlog that is solidified, we feel pretty comfortable about that. Likewise, in wind, we have good visibility for 2024. So I don't see any risk to the wind backlog. There's potentially upside if we take additional orders. I think the focus for us really is on orders for '25 and beyond.

I'll let Antonio comment there when I wrap up. But not a lot of risk associated with the downside on barge or wind and potentially some upside, but I'd say somewhat limited on '24 with more growth in '25 for those businesses. Utility, same thing. We have a good backlog. We have a shadow backlog that we don't include in reportable backlog. High single-digit revenue growth in utility structures is -- feels comfortable.

And then on construction. We feel very confident in the outlook, the demand outlook, as Antonio said, a rough start with weather. We're used to that. We've got some inorganic contributions that we will see in 2024. I think the way maybe to think about top line in construction is we had close to 7% top line revenue growth last year. Maybe 100 basis points or so of that was inorganic, and we could expect maybe a slightly larger inorganic piece in 2024 to get you in that high single-digit area of revenue growth for construction next year. That is the one business where we don't have a backlog. But we feel pretty confident in the demand drivers that we see in the tailwinds from the infrastructure rolling in more strongly in 2024.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

The only thing I would add to Gail's comment is the other thing that we know how to do it, we do it constantly but ramping up facilities, it's always a risk. There's always things that can happen, and we need to hire a lot of people. And we need to train people, and we need to produce products. And it's always a risk. It's going to be a heavy lift for the year. But the good news, I think, is the demand side. I mean the demand side is there. And it's up to us to perform well for the year because we have everything to be successful.

[Garik Shmois, analyst]

That's great color. I appreciate that. I just want to follow up on the inorganic growth opportunities. I think just to be clear, first off, the stronger inorganic growth in Construction Products, that assumes the acquisitions in both the fourth quarter and the recently announced one. I guess that was in the fourth quarter as well in South Florida. So I just want to confirm that, and it doesn't include any new acquisitions.

And then just as a follow-up to that, just how are you thinking about acquisitions more broadly within Construction Products? Maybe talk about bolt-ons as opposed to new platforms. Are you in the markets that you want to be in now? Or are there other regions that you want to expand in? And just maybe speak to how that looks in 2024.

[Antonio Carrillo, executive]

You're correct. The guidance on the first slide does not include any new acquisitions. Last year, we had very little inorganic EBITDA coming from previous acquisitions. So this year, we expect a little more because we made them at the end of the year. And these acquisitions, it takes time to integrate them. There's some integration costs and things. So normally, it takes a little time for them to start being accretive, but we do expect them to be accretive to our margins in 2024.

On the future acquisitions. I would say -- I've said it before, but it's -- do we like bigger ones? Of course, we like bigger ones. They're not available in -- most of the time. When we see something bigger, we'll be interested in that. As you've seen some of the multiples that are being paid for the larger ones, one of the things we believe is we believe in buying in disciplined capital allocation. And we're buying these acquisitions at multiples that we believe are good and generate value for our investors.

So we'll continue to look for acquisitions. On the bolt-on side, a larger also if we can find them at reasonable prices. And we are still looking for additional platforms in other regions. We still have several regions we're interested in where we do not have a presence.

And so -- but today, we have a lot more opportunities to redeploy capital than we had 5 years ago when we were only in Texas. Today, we can redeploy it in California, in Arizona, in Texas, in Florida, along with the Gulf Coast, in Tennessee. So we are building a nice platform that we can expand. And we need to get good at buying these small opportunities at reasonable prices.

We also see opportunities to redeploy capital in Engineered Structures. There's gaps in our product portfolio that we need to fill. We can do it organically or inorganically, and we're working both sides of the equation. So I think you'll see us continue to be active on the M&A market.

[Operator]

We have no further questions at this time. This will conclude the Arcosa Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.