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Agilent Technologies Inc
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
Agilent Technologies Inc
Agilent Technologies demonstrated resilience and a strategic focus in the third quarter amid various market challenges. Despite a 4.4% decline in revenue to $1.578 billion, this was an improvement from the previous quarter. Operating margins improved to 27.4% as the company began to reap benefits from cost-saving measures announced earlier. Earnings per share of $1.32 surpassed the high end of the company’s guidance by $0.04. This strong performance has led to an increased guidance for both revenue and EPS for the fiscal year.
The company's largest market, pharma, experienced a high single-digit decline, while biopharma faced continued pressure. However, small molecule performance in Europe showed relative improvement, signaling a stabilizing trend. Environmental markets, driven by PFAS testing, continued to excel, especially in Europe under the new EU Water Directive and in China with the nationwide emerging pollutants program. Services and consumables segments saw a mid-single-digit growth reflecting sustained lab activity. Although China showed an 11% decline in revenue, the increased activity in services and consumables foretold a potentially positive trajectory.
Gross margin for the quarter stood at 56.0%, a slight year-over-year decrease, but an improvement sequentially. The net leverage ratio was notably low at 0.6, maintaining a strong balance sheet even with pending acquisitions. Agilent's disciplined approach in cost management is underpinned by its successful execution of a $100 million annualized cost-saving program, on track to be completed by year's end.
Agilent continued to invest strategically, particularly in its digital ecosystem and growth vectors like biopharma. Notable acquisitions include BIOVECTRA, which enhances Agilent's capabilities in oligonucleotides and CRISPR therapeutics, and Sigsense, which improves lab operations through AI-powered monitoring. These investments not only expand Agilent's capability portfolio but also reinforce its commitment to innovation and customer-centric approaches.
The company raised its full-year revenue forecast to $6.450 billion to $6.500 billion, representing a slight core revenue decline. Non-GAAP EPS is projected between $5.21 and $5.25 for the year, suggesting a modest decline year-over-year. The fourth-quarter revenue is expected to be between $1.641 billion and $1.691 billion, with a core basis growth ranging from a slight decline to a narrow growth. Earnings for Q4 are forecasted between $1.38 and $1.42 per share. These projections are based on a cautious yet optimistic view of gradual market recovery, particularly with continued improvements in service and consumables revenues, and a potential rebound in the biopharma sector.
Agilent is gearing up for long-term growth by enhancing its operational efficiencies and maintaining a strong focus on customer relations. The company plans to accelerate value creation through its initiatives and remains a leader across key platforms. There is significant enthusiasm around the upcoming Investor Day, signaling further transformative strategies and innovations aimed at sustaining growth and providing substantial shareholder value.
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Agilent Technologies Q3 2024 Earnings Call. My name is Regina, and I will be coordinating your call today. [Operator Instructions]
I now hand you over to your host, Parmeet Ahuja, to begin. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and welcome, everyone, to Agilent's conference call for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024.
With me are Padraig McDonnell, Agilent President and CEO; and Bob McMahon, Agilent's Senior Vice President and CFO. Jointing in the Q&A will be Phil Binns, President of the Agilent Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group; Simon May, President of the Agilent Diagnostics and Genomics Group; and Angelica Riemann, President of the Agilent CrossLab Group.
This presentation is being webcast live. The news release for our third quarter financial results, investor presentation,and information to supplement today's discussion along with the recording of this webcast are available on our website at www.investor.agilent.com.
Today's comments refer to non-GAAP financial measures. You will find the most directly comparable GAAP financial metrics and reconciliations on our website. Unless otherwise noted, all references to increases or decreases in financial metrics are year-over-year and references to revenue growth are on a core basis.
Core revenue growth excludes the impact of currency and any acquisitions and divestitures completed within the past 12 months. Guidance is based on forecasted exchange rates. As a reminder, beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2024, we implemented certain changes to our standard reporting structure related to the move of our cell analysis business from LSAG into DGG. We have recast our historical segment information to reflect these changes. These changes have no impact on our company's consolidated financial statements.
During this call, we will also make forward-looking statements about the financial performance of the company. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties and are only valid as of today. The company assumes no obligation to update them. Please look at the company's recent SEC filings for a more complete picture of our risks and other factors.
And now I'd like to turn the call over to Padraig.
Thanks, Parmeet. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. The Agilent team executed well in the third quarter and posted solid results, delivering better-than-expected revenue and earnings. Revenue of $1.578 billion declined 4.4%, an improvement of 300 basis points from Q2, reflecting the steady improvement in the market. Operating margin of 27.4% improved sequentially as the actions we announced last quarter start to deliver, and we remain on track to deliver the incremental annualized savings of $100 million by the end of the fiscal year. Earnings per share of $1.32 is $0.04 above the high end of guidance. As a result of our strong Q3 performance, we are raising our guidance at the midpoint for both revenue and EPS, and we continue to make investments in our most promising growth opportunities that are referenced in our Q2 call.
We're investing in our digital ecosystem to further enhance our differentiated customer experience plus, we are mobilizing the organization to accelerate value creation through strategic transformation initiatives, driving margin expansion and growth and increasing our execution capabilities. Separately in the quarter, we were excited to announce 2 acquisitions that demonstrate our focus on biopharma and our digital ecosystem, which I'll talk about in a moment.
As you know well, the pace of change is faster than ever. Our markets, customers and competitors are not standing still, neither are we. We're accelerating our pace of innovation and execution, so we can add to and capitalize on opportunities in front of us. We are sharply focused on key growth vectors, including biopharma, PFAS and Advanced Materials. I continue to meet and connect with employees, customers and shareholders around the globe to listen to their perspectives on how we should build on our strengths and move Agilent forward.
The entire Agilent team is clear on what is vital to the company's future, becoming even more customer focused and even more nimble to continue to win in the marketplace and add value to customers and shareholders. We are evolving our strategy, adapting quickly to market trends and changes while accelerating our pace of innovation, an area of greatest return for long-term growth. We're excited to announce that you'll hear more about these topics and our transformation at our Investor Day we have planned in New York on December 17.
Now let's talk further about our Q3 results. All our end markets except academia and government, which is our smallest, ended the quarter better than expected. Our largest market pharma, declined high single digits, slightly better than our expectations. And while biopharma continues to be pressured, we are seeing relatively better performance in small molecules. Our leadership in providing workflow solutions for PFAS continued to show strong performance in the environmental market. Geographically, Europe exceeded expectations led by small molecule pharma as well as continued strength in environmental. Our other regions performed roughly in line with expectations.
While capital equipment budgets remain constrained, we continue to see good lab activity in Q3, with services plus consumables growing mid-single digits. When looking at our performance by business unit, the Life Sciences and Applied Markets Group reported $782 million in revenue, down 7%, while the instrument side of the business remains constrained, it was encouraging that our instrument book-to-bill was again greater than 1. The group saw a decline across all regions and most end markets with low single-digit growth in environmental and forensics.
Consumers continue to be a bright spot, growing by mid-single digits. The LSAG team also was busy innovating with the introduction of the 8850 GC that helps customers reach their sustainability goals by delivering answers efficiently while using up to 30% less power than other GCs and has a much smaller footprint.
Moving on to the Agilent CrossLab Group, the business delivered revenue of $411 million for the quarter, up mid-single digits. ACG grew in every region except China, where we were down modestly year-on-year, but showed meaningful improvement versus last quarter. Once again, we drove double-digit growth in service contracts which represented nearly 70% of the total business. And beyond another quarter of solid revenue growth, ACG also delivered a record operating margin of 34%, demonstrating that the resiliency and strength of the recurring revenue business continues despite the constrained capital equipment environment.
The continued strength of our business is a testament to our strategy of increasing the net rates on our instruments. And the ongoing value we are providing to our customers and having them reached their productivity goals. The Diagnostics and Genomics Group posted $385 million in revenue, representing an 8% decline, but grew mid-single digits ally and was offset by declines in cell analysis, NASD and genomics.
NASD stepped down sequentially in Q3 as expected, and we are on track for NASD's revenues to step up sequentially in Q4. In the face of a constrained CapEx environment, the Agilent team has remained consistent in putting our customers first and fostering deeper relationships with them. We continue to execute well and be disciplined while investing in high-growth opportunities.
As I mentioned earlier, we were thrilled to announce 2 acquisitions that speak to focus on biopharma and increasing recurring revenue, as well as on strengthening the digital ecosystem for Agilent customers. In late July, we signed a definitive agreement to acquire BIOVECTRA, a leading specialized contract development and manufacturing organization. The Canada-based company builds on Agilent capabilities in oligonucleotides and CRISPR therapeutics by expanding our portfolio of services. BIOVECTRA adds rapidly growing modalities microbial fermentation, antibody drug conjugates and high potency active pharmaceutical ingredients.
It also brings world-class capabilities that when combined with NASD enables us to deliver customers a complete gene editing solution. The company delivered more than $110 million in revenue during the calendar year 2023 and expect double-digit revenue growth this year. The BIOVECTRA acquisition remains on track to be closed by the end of the year, and we're looking forward to welcoming the BIOVECTRA team to Agilent.
At the end of the quarter, we also announced the acquisition of California based Sigsense, a startup that uses artificial intelligence and power monitoring to help customers optimize their lab operations. Sigsense Technology already is available to our customers through CrossLab Connect, a suite of digital applications that improve lab performance. A hearty welcome to the Sigsense team who already is part of Agilent.
During the quarter, we released our annual ESG report, which showcases a large and growing portfolio of products that help our customers reach their sustainability goals. Instruments certified with the My Green Lab ACT label now accounts for 40% of all instrument revenue, and we continue to regularly release products like the new 8850 GC with environmental benefits. We are also proud that we have recently ranked in the top 20 of Time Magazine's 500 most sustainable companies in the world.
Bob will now provide the details on our results as well as our outlook for the remainder of the year. After Bob delivers his comments, I will be back for some closing remarks. Over to you, Bob.
Thanks, Padraig, and good afternoon, everyone. In my remarks today, I'll provide some additional details on revenue in the quarter, as well as take you through the statement and other key financial metrics. I'll then cover our updated full year and fourth quarter guidance. Q3 revenue was $1.578 billion, a decline of 4.4% core, but a 300 basis point sequential improvement, as Padraig noted. Excluding China, revenue declined low single digits in the quarter. On a reported basis, currency had a negative impact of 1.1 percentage points, while M&A had a negative impact of 10 basis points, resulting in a reported decline of 5.6%. Our largest end market pharma declined 8%. Biopharma was down low double digits, were down mid-single digits, excluding NASD. Small molecule performed better, down mid-single digits and was led by growth in Europe.
Services and Pharma continues to perform well, growing high single digits. In Chemical and Advanced Materials, revenue declined 5%, with growth in Americas offset by softness in China. Our Advanced Materials subsegment performed better driven by our business in the semiconductor market. Academia and government, our smallest market, can be lumpy from quarter-to-quarter. We saw a decline of 11% as Europe and China both saw double-digit decline, partially offset by better performance in the Americas region.
Our business in the diagnostics and clinical end market grew 2%, including continued mid-single-digit growth in pathology offset by ongoing softness in genomics. In environmental and forensics, we grew 4%, another great quarter for our PFAS testing business. We saw robust business in Europe led by the new EU Water Directive and in China due to the nationwide emerging pollutants program. Now wrapping up our end markets. Food was down 3% versus last year, but grew sequentially and was led by Asia ex China.
Moving on to our regional performance. Europe was flat overall, beating our expectations while we declined 6% in the Americas and declined 1% in Asia, ex China. China revenue declined 11%, with quarterly revenue improving sequentially, driven by growth in services and consumables. This speaks to some increase in lab activity which is encouraging.
Now let's move on to the rest of the P&L. Gross margin was 56.0% in the quarter, down slightly versus a year ago, but up 40 basis points sequentially. Our operating margin of 27.4% improved sequentially and was better than expected. Despite the dampened demand, we continue to make good progress in driving our productivity initiatives and continuing to manage the cost structure very well while investing for growth. As Padraig mentioned, we are on track to deliver the $100 million in incremental annualized cost savings by the end of the fiscal year.
Below the line, our net interest income was in line as was our tax rate of 13%, and we had 291 million diluted shares outstanding in the quarter. Putting it all together, Q3 earnings per share were $1.32. That was ahead of our expectations but down 7.7% from a year ago as we went up against a difficult compare due to the variable pay reset in Q3 of last year.
Now let me turn to cash flow and the balance sheet. We continue to enjoy a very strong balance sheet and healthy cash flows. Operating cash flow was $452 million in the quarter, and we invested $92 million in capital expenditures. As we committed in Q2, we ramped up our share repurchases starting here in Q3. We purchased $585 million in shares and paid out $68 million through dividends for a total of $653 million returned to shareholders in the quarter. This includes $500 million of the previously announced $750 million opportunistic share repurchase and we expect to complete the additional $250 million repurchase in Q4.
We ended the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 0.6. And even with the upcoming BIOVECTRA acquisition, our balance sheet and leverage ratios will still be in a very strong position.
In summary, we performed well and continue to see a steady improvement in the market and expect that to continue into FY '25. Because of our Q3 results, we are increasing the midpoint of our revenue and earnings per share guidance for the year. We now expect full year revenue to be in the range of $6.450 billion to $6.500 billion. This represents a decline of 5.6% to 4.9% on a reported basis and a decline of 5.0% to 4.3% on a core basis. Currency and M&A combined are a headwind of 60 basis points.
Full year non-GAAP earnings per share are now expected to be between $5.21 and $5.25, representing a decline of 4.2% to 3.5%. This assumes net interest income of $38 million, a 13% tax rate and 292 million fully diluted shares outstanding. We have not included any impact of the BIOVECTRA acquisition in our updated guidance, and Sigsense does not have a material financial impact to the year or Q4.
This full year guidance translates into Q4 revenue in the range of $1.641 billion to $1.691 billion. This represents a decline of 1.9% to 1.1% growth on a core basis and a decline of 2.8% to 0.2% growth on a reported basis.
Currency and M&A or a combined headwind of 90 basis points. Fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to be between $1.38 and $1.42, marking a return to growth at the midpoint. We expect a 13% tax rate, a decrease in net interest income to $5 million due to the lower cash balance and 287 million diluted shares outstanding for the quarter.
Now I'd like to turn the call back to Padraig for some closing comments. Padraig?
These are exciting times at Agilent. With a team that is second to none, we are doubling down on our customer-first culture and deepening our relationships to further enhance our market-leading customer experience that is already the best in the industry. We're evolving our strategy to aggressively pursue our ambition to grow in markets where we have a right to win to both organic and inorganic growth, and we will continue to accelerate value creation through strategic transformation initiatives.
We remain a leader across key platforms, and we're in great long-term growth markets that are beginning to show evidence of recovery. Best of all, our team is engaged, leading to Newsweek including Agilent on its America's greatest Workplaces 2024 list.
Again, thank you for joining today's call. I'm tied by how we are evolving Agilent. Each data team gains momentum in building an enduring company that sets the standard for excellence with our customers and creates value for our shareholders. We are fueled by the future profitabilities, and I look forward to continuing to share our progress.
Parmeet, over to you for Q&A.
Thanks, Padraig. Regina, if you could please provide instructions for Q&A now.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Matt Sykes with Goldman Sachs.
Maybe the first one, just digging in a little bit on the LSAG where you had a pretty solid beat. It looks like that was driven primarily by consumables and services. So I'm curious if you can give any more color on what instruments did. I know you had a book-to-bill above 1. But just how does that inform your view as we go into '25 on the replacement cycle, specifically large biopharma demand and how that might impact your view on when that replacement cycle starts kicking in?
Yes. Thanks a lot, Matt. Maybe I'll kick it off and give it Bob. I think first of all, you're correct. We saw very promising growth in both consumables and services, which shows lab activity is actually improving is very stable. We're still very challenged on the instrument side. But what we're seeing is we're seeing a lot of activity around conversations with lab managers. Our funnel is extremely stable. We haven't seen any cancellations. But what I would say is that deal closure times are still elevated. So we're not at this point seeing any budget towards the end of the year which, of course, for us ends at the end of October, but we're watching that closely. I don't know if anything to add, Bob?
Yes. Thanks, Matt, for that question. And maybe just to and add some additional commentary to what Padraig was saying. When we look at the quarter, we were very pleased actually both our consumables business as well as our instrument business performed better than expected in the quarter. We were down 7% in total. Our consumables business was actually up mid-single digits towards the high end there. And our instruments business was down low double digits, but that was better than what we expected. And as Padraig mentioned, we had a book-to-bill that was greater than 1 on the instrument side again this quarter, which was very encouraging.
Got it. Very helpful. And then just on Academic and government. I know you talked about it, you talked about it for a while, how volatile that can be. But just given sort of the 2 quarters in a row of sort of negative performance there, and you called out Europe and China specifically. Are there any kind of durable trends you're seeing either in funding or in demand that you think might be more persistent in that specific end market as we go through Q4 and then as we look 5?
No, I think, look, we saw a decline of about 11%, and that was really against the comparative feature, the stimulus and EMEA and strong results in APAC and China. So it was a really tough compare. And I think what we're seeing is funding remains stable in most regions. And except I would say Europe, where we're seeing a reallocation of funding towards defense. But I would say no major changes in that market.
Our next question will come from the line of Rachel Vatnsdal Olson with JPMorgan.
To dig into NEC a little bit. Obviously, we had some positive announcements intra-quarter with the HELIOS-B readout. You mentioned that NASD stepped down sequentially as expected and then you're expecting that to then step up into fiscal 4Q. So could you unpack that for us a little bit? How should we think about the magnitude of the step-up into 4Q? And then given some of the updated data readout that we got intra-quarter, how does that underpin your assumptions on NASD next year and then also long term?
Yes. Look, I'll start off and maybe I'll hand it over to Simon, who's on the call here as well. We've seen with clinical batches, of course, there can be changes with customers progress on those patches. We're not seeing any changes in what we're saying for Q4. So we're fairly certain of Q4 on that. What we're seeing as well is that we're -- we've grown our clinical business over 50% this year, which is very promising. The long-range view of the market is very strong with the drugs and the modalities that are being used. But I think what you're seeing is a normal kind of up and down between quarters with that business. But I don't know if you want to add any more color, Simon?
Yes. I just add what Padraig said, I think the Q3 performance that we saw in NASD was largely in life expectations. And in that business, where we see a natural lag between order booking activity and revenue recognition because of the loan that these programs take. And towards the end of last year, we were really seeing the effects of the IRA impacts, and that's still not completely waned, but what we saw in Q3 was pretty strong bookings activity. So as we look to Q4 and into 2025, I think we're cautiously optimistic about seeing a return to growth there.
So I'd really just characterize Q3 is in line with expectations and part and parcel of the lumpiness you see in this business. You also mentioned Helios, I think it's just worth mentioning that we were very happy to see that development, but still very early days in terms of how that's going to ramp up and play out and too soon to say where that's concerned, but certainly no impact in the remainder of '24 and unlikely in '25 as well.
Rachel, this is Bob. Just to add on a little more to answer your last part of your question in terms of the sequential step-up. We had talked, as Simon and Padraig said, we've done a little better actually in Q3 than we expected, and we're expecting a roughly $20 million step-up from Q3 to Q4. Those orders are all in-house, and we're still on track for the long -- the full year estimate for NASD, and that's incorporated into our guidance.
Great. That's helpful. And then for my follow-up, I just wanted to dig a little bit more into 4Q guidance and what that means in terms of an exit rate into 2025. So I appreciate some of your comments earlier. You highlighted in that question that you're not really assuming a budget flush for your fiscal year-end in October. But I guess how should investors look at this 4Q number on an organic growth basis of that down 2% to up 1% on the range, and how that translating into 2025? If I look at consensus right now, consensus is just shy of 5% organic on 2025. Street is also nearing that double-digit EPS growth. So I appreciate it's still a little bit early for you guys to formally give us 2025 expectations. But what do you think about exit rate and where sell-side numbers are right now?
Yes, you were reading my mind, Rachel. This is Bob. And it is a little too early to talk about FY '25. But I think what it does show is our expectation of this continued steady improvement. We improved here in Q3 300 basis points sequentially. We're expecting another improvement here going into Q4. And I would expect that improvement to continue into FY '25. So -- and we do expect -- while it's too early to give you a specific number, we do expect to grow next year. These markets will return. And we've been below the long-term trend, but there's nothing to suggest that the -- or the long-term growth rates of these markets is nothing to suggest that these markets have changed. And so we're optimistic about continued recovery going into FY '25.
Our next question comes from the line of Patrick Donnelly with Citi.
Yes. Bob, maybe one for you. But just on China, how you guys are thinking about the region there? It sounds like it was down 11%. It got a little bit better on the revenue side sequentially. It sounds like you got lab activity maybe look a little bit better. Can you just talk about expectations into year-end? Some of your peers have suggested that you could see a bit of a pause on the capital side into calendar year-end as we wait for more clarity on the stimulus. Just how you guys are thinking about China again, not only into your fiscal year, but just into the year-end on the calendar side? And what's your view in terms of do we see a little bit of an air pocket here until the US dollars get firmed up?
Yes. Patrick, it's a great question. And we had actually a little of that in our Q2 of last -- just a quarter ago here, really on the bid activity, primarily for instrumentation. We are optimistic about the midterm here in terms of the stimulus, That's probably more an FY '25 event probably. What we are seeing is more activity there. And I think what's encouraging, and maybe I can turn it over to Angelica as well. Our services business has seen an increase in a pickup in activity and certainly a consumables as well. So it's still dampened demand. And we did see that impact in Academia and government. That was the biggest impact in China, but we are seeing some pockets of green shoot in terms of recovery.
Yes, Bob, I'll just add. In China, we are encouraged from a services perspective on the nice sequential growth that we saw from Q2 to Q3, which is indicative of continued and somewhat increasing lab activity in China.
Okay. That's encouraging. And then maybe another one for you, Bob. Just as we think about the margin construct as we work away into year-end in '25. Maybe just remind us some of the moving pieces to think about LEVEL as we look ahead to next year. Obviously, the cost out program seems to be progressing multi point. The margins came in nicely here in 3Q. But yes, maybe just the moving pieces as we go ahead to next year, how -- talking too much about the top line, obviously, the volume matters there. But just kind of down the P&L, how to think about some of the margin Algifor next year would be helpful.
Yes. I think as we talked about -- Patrick, it's a great question, and we're committed to continuing to drive efficiencies across all of the P&L line items. And I think you've seen that across the actions that we've taken. We're on track to delivering that $100 million of incremental annualized savings by the end of '24. So there will still be a tailwind, obviously, going into '25 for that benefit. Offsetting that will be some resets of our variable pay and activities like that, but we are committed to covering that.
If I think about it at the highest level, what I would expect us to continue to be able to do is drive leveraged earnings next year. And I think you're seeing that the scale benefit that we're seeing, and certainly, our ACG business here this last quarter, just phenomenal profit contribution. And I think with volume coming back into the instrument business as well that will set us up nicely for next year. So think about a nice incremental tailwind associated with the continued actions or the annualization of that actions that come in FY '25, partially offset by merit and some of the activities and then we'll have our ongoing productivity measures. And so we'll actually share some of the more detail around this probably in our Analyst Day in December. So stay tuned on that as well.
Our next question comes from the line of Jack Meehan with Nephron Research.
I wanted to dig into some of these instrument trends a little bit more. I was wondering if you could talk about just what you're seeing across some of the big categories like LC, LC/MS, GC, SPECTRA. Any color on how those performed?
Yes. I mean in general terms, Jack, I think customers are very, very cautious. But what I will say is that lab manager remain very engaged with our sales teams about future projects, that is true. We see a lot of stability in that. So it's still very challenging. And I would say that our deal close rate is still elevated, but our funnels are very stable with low cancellations. So I think that goes across most of the markets. And as you see going forward, our results, CST and service is growing mid-single digits and bodes very, very well in terms of lab activity increasing. So we're seeing slow but steady improvement.
Jack, just to follow on to that. I think one of the things, as we mentioned in the call, the book-to-bill being at 1 for instruments is a positive sign. It was slightly better than what we expected overall LSAG instruments were down lower digit.
Yes. Where all of the categories kind of right around there?
I would say if you looked at the LC and LC/MS business, they were in the mid-teens. Our spectroscopy business better than that.
Okay. And then just as one end market follow-up. I was curious, in TAM in the third quarter, so it was down 5%. It was a little bit below what I was thinking. Is there anything just within the different categories within that end market that softened a little bit relative to what you were thinking a few months ago?
Yes. So you're correct, it was declined by 5%, and it was really due to the impact of overproduction in China, which negatively impacted market investments globally. But we did see increases in service and consumables, both combined at 7% increase, but there was a decrease of about 14% in instruments. And I think CapEx spending remains slightly challenged there.
Our next question comes from the line of Vijay Kumar with Evercore ISI.
One, I guess, for Bob, if you look at the guidance change over the last 3 months, NASD, China, biopharma in the big categories, right? I think the guide assumes NASD down double digits in fiscal '24, China down high singles double digits, biopharma down. Which of these is expected to get better next year? What is it getting better or worse? And is there a first half versus second half dynamics that we should be aware of?
Yes, Vijay, thanks for the question. I think in terms of what we expect getting better, we expect all of them to improve next year. We raised the midpoint of guidance, $15 million on revenue and $0.03 in EPS. And we see across all those areas, markets improving slowly, and that's reflected in the sequential increase that we're guiding in Q4. So while we had a kind of a solid Q3, the end market environment for capital remains constrained and visibility, while improving is still difficult.
Understood. And maybe on that Q4 commentary for guidance implying up 6% or 7%, which seems generally in line with your historical sequential step-up from 3Q. And is the booking trends that we saw and NASD trends we saw, does it support the historical, I guess, seasonality? Because I think were discrete is debating upon that historical seasonality doesn't bake in some year-end budget flush or what is baked into that sequential step-up?
Yes. So I think what we're seeing is that it's -- we normally see the step up. That's what we're expecting this time. We're not including the budget flush in that. We see a budget flush it's on top, and that would be in our Q1 numbers as we go forward.
Yes. Vijay, this is Bob. And just to build on what Padraig is saying, I mean, you're absolutely right. When we look at the sequential, it is in line with our historical and our order book based on what we've seen today. Obviously, we have to book orders in Q4, but our order book trends would support that.
Our next question will come from the line of Tycho Peterson with Jefferies.
Question on BIOVECTRA and maybe just synergies with the rest of the NASD business. How do you think about -- does that change views on capacity? And -- maybe just talk a little bit about how much BIOVECTRA business is clinical versus social and any kind of emerging modalities that you're adding here?
Yes, I'll start, Tycho, and I'll bring in Simon in a minute. So we are absolutely delighted by our factory. We think it's a great state that enhances our offerings. And it really allows us to deepen our relationships with our key pharma customers. And what we're really excited about is that it builds on our capabilities on current NAVs around antisense and particularly gene editing with microbiotation and ADC capability. So we're very happy with. So there's a lot of synergies as we bring that forward. So I'll hand over to Simon to talk maybe about capacity in the main business.
And I think Padraig, I note already in terms of the synergies. We already mentioned the complete solution offering in gene editing, which we see a really significant competitive advantage going forward. Sterile fill finish is another synergy that we're excited about. We've had a lot of requests from our customers over the past few years for that capability from the diligence we're doing with BIOVECTRA, we think they've got truly world-class capabilities there. And as Padraig also mentioned with microbial fermentation high potent APIs. There's an existing footprint there in GLP-1 manufacturing. So I think we've got a slightly higher clinicals in BIOVECTRA than we have in NASD. So I think we're just killing several birds with one stone with this acquisition. From a capacity perspective, I'd say BIOVECTRA has been ahead of the curve with capacity CapEx, and we've got some skin to grow into there over the next few years.
Okay. That's helpful. And then a follow-up on China. You had the pull-forward dynamic in the first quarter, $15 million that were back in 2Q. I think you were effectively flat maybe down a little bit. First, is that the right assumption? What are you actually embedding in 4Q for China and guidance? And then how do you think about the return to growth in '25? Could you see that in the first half of the year?
Yes. Tycho, that's -- your recollection is correct. And as we think about implied fourth quarter now mid-single digits in China. We're going up, quite honestly, against some easier compares in full dozer. And we would expect a slight sequential step-up from a revenue perspective as well. And so that reflects the steady improvement. We do expect, again, not a lot of that stimulus to come in our Q4, basically none, but more into Q5, but the bidding activity that we're seeing has ramped up. And then I think the activity that we're seeing in services and consumables, we're expecting that to continue. It's probably too early to tell next year for China. But I would expect it to continue to improve and not be down the way it is. We're expecting a low double-digit decline this year. We would expect to improve from that. It will probably be improvement throughout the year as opposed to an immediate improvement. Certainly, the stimulus will help us with that. Again, that will be in our first and second quarters, most likely. But we're not expecting a huge step up right there. It will be over time because this stimulus is over a 3-year period.
Our next question comes from the line of Puneet Souda with Leerink Partners.
Instrumentation growth, obviously, an important question. Last quarter, you lowered expectations meaningfully. But again, book-to-bill was strong, more than one, again, this quarter, it is more than one. And I think you said that last quarter was the first time you saw growth in the market after 7 quarters. So that looks like it's continued again into the quarter. So just maybe help us understand instrument -- where we sit on instrumentation? And what sort of recovery are you seeing here in August? And what gives you sort of confidence that instrumentation should bounce -- continue to bounce back into 2025 as well?
Yes. Look, at the indications from the team, we have a strategic account team that does a lot of citations with our major accounts. There's -- we're seeing that more positive than negative in terms of customer sentiment, which is a very good sign. We see a lot of activity in our testing labs as well as focusing on PFAS and so on. So there is drivers within the markets that are that are positive. But overall, I would say it's slow and steady, and we're treating it as that. And the teams have really good visibility. Our commercial teams which we've transformed in the last few years are really, really close to our customers. We have really good visibility into that. So it's slow but steady. I don't know if you want to add anything, Bob, to that.
Yes. No, I think you're spot on. And we're not building any budget flush into our Q4, Puneet. So if that does in fact happen, that would be a benefit to our current estimates.
Okay. And the recent drug pricing negotiation with Medicare on the first drugs are out. Obviously, RA is having an impact. But over the next 3 years, annually, 15 drugs will be negotiated and that probably leads to another set of impacts. So what are you hearing from your large pharma customers? And overall, how are they thinking about the R&D spend and the spend that they currently have on Agilent?
Yes. Look, I think in general, they're very cautious, of course, with some of the impacts, the macro impacts that are facing. They're not -- there's a lot of M&A activity going on within pharma, a lot of consolidation, which, of course, takes time and energy for these companies to focus on. And I think what you're going to see over time is it probably even out in terms of impact. What isn't going down, by the way, is the number of R&D programs. We see that increasing in a number of key modality areas, particularly around GLP-1, et cetera. So we need to wait and see. But having said that, people kind of forget in the last few years, the enormous amount of spend that has happened, and we're seeing that normalize now, of course, in the installed base and coming out of that in '25.
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Ryskin with Bank of America.
I want to follow up on -- maybe this is what any was just getting at, but you called out in your prepared remarks at times that with biopharma, a small molecule held up a little bit better or small molecule did a little bit better. tha large molecule, I assume. Just wondering if you could delve into that a little bit more. Was that a particular instrument class or modality that drove that? Was that -- does that have to do with budget cycles. Just what you're seeing there and why there's such a difference in molecule side?
Yes, Mike, this is Bob. You're right. I mean our small molecule business was down mid-single digits in the quarter, which was better than expected. And in Europe, a group, which was a very positive sign. And this does speak to -- you can only hold on to your old instruments for so long before the replacement need happen. We're not calling a replacement cycle inflection just yet. But every quarter, these instruments get older. And one of the things that I think is important here is pill counts and volumes continue to grow. And back to the question around the IRA and the pricing, I think it was generally not the worst-case scenario, maybe a little better than people expected. And where our strength is, is in the development moving into production, and that continues to be long-term positive trends. So that would be our core LC franchise. And then the biopharma, some of that was impacted by our NASD business, which was kind of the air pocket. Actually, if you take our biopharma business, which was down double digits, and then you take NASD out, we're at mid-single digits as well. Not as -- it was down a little more than small molecule, but generally still in that same range. So both of them are actually when you take out the kind of onetime unique aspect of NASD performing better quarter-on-quarter, which is a positive sign.
So also, I would say, just adding to that, Bob, we saw services going double digits in biopharma and mid-single digits and small molecules. So that's a big component of what we see in those different modalities.
Okay. Both of those answer are really helpful. And then for my follow-up, I want to lean in a little bit more on BIOVECTRA, I mean everything you kind of laid out there for the rationale and the financials of the deal certainly makes sense. I'm just curious you've had a presence in some CDMO type capabilities in the past. Just wondering how hard are you going to lean into this. And what I'm alluding to is obviously one of your large traditional tools vendors has a CDMO business has been in that business for a number of years now, and there's a lot of talk of the benefits of having both the instrument, the consumables and the services business on the tail end. Is this something you're going to continue to grow over time? Is it buyback like a Chat acquisition, and we should expect more investment down the road?
Yes, I'll start and maybe hand it over to Simon. When we look at our M&A ambition, first of all, we're -- it's going to be really centered around where our strategy is, what's the strategic fit in faster-growing markets and of course, value creation BIOVECTRA ticks all of those boxes. And it's an area where we're building out more capabilities for customers. So we see that continuing. And so we're really excited about it, but we do see that this business has a lot of runway. It's a business that's growing well, very well run, of course, and has had a lot of capital investment over a number of years. And I think this is only the start of our ambition in continuing to grow BIOVECTRA and NASD. But Simon?
Not much to add really, only beyond that. We've got a very strong existing position in the RNA modality. I'd say, up until this point, it's been a relatively narrow capability position and BIOVECTRA builds on that quite nicely. As we look at future optionality around complementary capabilities and modalities, we think is a rich space. And that's probably all we can say at this point.
Our next question comes from the line of Dan Brennan with TD Cowen.
Maybe just back to China, the down 11% was a bit better than we were looking for. Can you just unpack what specifically got better in the quarter, given the guidance cut that you made last quarter, maybe either by customer type or by product type? And then just to clear up, like, so your guidance for China, I know it was down double digits. Has that changed at all? Have you improved that? So that's my first question.
Dan, thanks for the question. China is still in line with our full year end guidance down low double digits. If I look at where we actually performed slightly better than what we anticipated was actually in pharma. And it gets back to what we were talking about before, the activity both on the services side performing sequentially better as well as our consumables business actually growing. And so we were down close to 30% in Q2 of last year, we were down low double digits in pharma year-on-year. And so that was the big sequential improvement in Q3. And I would expect the -- that to continue into Q4.
Okay. And then starting with NASD, but there's just been a lot of questions from investors after the turns year-to-date in terms of that business really slowing a lot. Can you -- did you say what it did actually in the quarter? I didn't hear the number kind of year-over-year during the quarter? And then kind of if we take in the full year, I know you said step up. Could you just give us some clarity on the fourth quarter? And then any additional color on clinical versus commercial? It sounds like your bookings are improving so that portends well for the outlook, but just trying to act like what's going on right now in the quarter?
Dan, what I would say is we typically don't give a specific number for NASD, but it actually performed in line or slightly better than what we expected. So we had been signaling a step down in Q3, and we actually did better than what we were expecting there. The full year is still in line with where we were, which is roughly a $300 million business. As Simon was saying, the bookings continue to be positive in terms of activity. And we're starting to see some of our customers the readouts of some of activities, which is more a harbinger of long-term opportunity versus short term. But if anything, it was a little better than we expected. So I don't want anyone to take away that it wasn't even though it was down in the quarter, we expected that and communicated that as part of our guidance, and we're still on track for the full year estimate that we had coming into the quarter.
Our next question will come from the line of Catherine Schulte with Baird.
Maybe first, just could you talk about growth rates by segment for the fiscal fourth quarter and maybe your assumptions for instrumentation versus consumables and services in the fourth quarter?
Yes. Catherine, this is Bob. What I would say is if I look at our Q4, all groups, we would expect to do better. And if I went by group LSAG would be -- we're expecting kind of low single digits off of a down 7% this year. Consumables being better than that overall. And with the instrument side still probably down slightly or would be down slightly. DGD down mid-single digits and ACG up mid-single digits towards the high end, that's what we've embedded in our guidance. So all in all, three of those actually performing better than where we were in Q3.
Perfect. And then maybe going back to small molecule, Nice to see the improvement there. What was just small molecule performance excluding China? I know you said Europe grew, but just curious to get more color on what you're seeing elsewhere?
Yes. I think what we're seeing is Europe was a standout and small molecule, a lot of activity there, but probably stable across the different markets on us. And what we did see from the small molecule side, we did see pretty good growth in services that as well as has had that number. But I think overall, Europe ahead but everywhere else stable.
Yes. And so we were down mid-single digits. And as Padraig said, if you took China out, we were down low single digits everywhere else.
Our next question will come from the of Joshua Waldman with Cleveland Research.
A couple for you. Padraig or Bob, maybe first a follow-up. On your assumption for no budget flushing impact on pharma instrumentation, is that just a function of the timing of your quarter relative to calendar year-end buying from these customers? Or are there other things you're seeing that are leaving you on the sidelines as it relates to end of year pharma spending?
And then a related question, was curious any high-level thoughts you had on '25 based on planning conversations you're having with pharma accounts? Are you thinking next year should be a return to normal growth type year in pharma instrument budgets as budgets are reset? Or is it more of a gradual recovery or return to normal for a couple of year period? Any feedback you're getting from accounts on that?
Yes. I'll take the first one and maybe hand off to Bob for the second one. I think it's a year ago when we were -- people were talking about budget flushes. We didn't expect it, and we didn't see it. We saw a little bit, but not much. We're expecting the same this time, of course, our year-end at the end of October. So if we do see any activity, we'll be in Q1 '25.
Why do we see this is? Because we're very close to our customers. We know exactly when, where the funnel is where the deals are and we're install base. We have a lot of installed base information. So we're not expecting it anything substantial at the end of the year. But what we are seeing is a lot more conversations about next year, a slow, steady recovery and we're hearing that across the board. I don't know if you want to take the second question, Bob?
Yes. Josh, on Padraig was saying, it's probably too early to say. But what I our current indication is that it's not going to snap back November 1 to be back to normal. I do think that you'll continue to see a recovery throughout FY '25. And get back to that long-term growth rate sometime in '25. That's the way we kind of think about it. But I don't think it's another 2- to 3-year estimate either based on our conversation with customers right now. So it's probably in between.
Got it. Okay. And then just had a follow-up on ACG. I was curious if you could provide a bit more context on the dynamics you're seeing there, especially interested in what you're seeing from an RFP and win rate dynamic in the contracted business. And then you mentioned, I think, in the slide decks benefiting from mix. I was wondering if you could flesh that out a bit.
Yes, I'll take the first part of that question and hand it over to Angelica. Extremely pleased with ACG's performance, and that's years of investment in a broad product offerings in key markets that are really being received customers in this environment where they want to get more productivity out of their systems. They want to use their assets in different ways. And we've seen the flow through to our results in spite of the CapEx challenges all year. So the business performs extremely well and the margins are extremely good. So I'll ask Angelica to provide more color on the contract business. But I think what's really interesting is our enterprise service business as well. Angelica?
Yes. So to really dive in on the contracts, right, it's nearly 70% of our business in Q3, and it's continuing to grow double digits. As we continue to see that strong demand in our enterprise service offerings, which are in the mid-teens, it's really about being there to help customers optimize their lab operations, improve their productivity and our offers really facilitate our customers improving the lab operations, the efficiencies and their waste reduction. So we're continuing to see some very strong and sticky behavior within our contract franchise.
Yes. And Josh, just on the comment on mix is when we have business on contract, that generally is good for us and good for our customers as well.
Our final question will come from the line of Doug Schenkel with Wolfe Research.
I know it's late in the call. That being said, I got three lightning round questions which I'm going to rattle through and then listen to the answers. The first is on MAP. Recurring revenue growth was up mid-single digits in the quarter. It seems like instruments have to be down around 20% more base numbers you reported in the 10-Q and Q3 of last year. Bob, I think you said in response to Matt Sykes question, it was down low double digits. What are we missing? It's just not trying to be too picky here, but it just seems important in the context of assessing trends and what way to put on your book-to-bill commentary? So that's the first question.
The second is on China stimulus. Any change in dynamics regarding stalling either in terms of conversions or even cancellations. There's some skeletal that there's been some recent changes as the shape of stimulus becomes a bit more clear. And then the third question is on 2025. If you exit 2024 with flat or growth in Q4 that would obviously be positive trend relative to what we've seen over the last few quarters. That said, it would seem like if you draw a straight line that you'd be on track to exit 2025 at around, call it, 5%, maybe 6% growth rather than growing single digits for the year. So I think you need a fundamental improvement in overall market conditions and/or a real impact from China stimulus to get to mid-singles for the year. I just want to see if any of my logic is flawed there.
That's certainly a light and round dog, but we'll try and we'll answer it. I think, Bob, you can take the for as 1 I'll take China.
Yes. The comment that I had on instruments was specifically related to LSAG instruments, and they were down low double digits. Consumables was up mid-single digits for the total being down minus 7%. So that is -- we do have some instrumentation in DGG as well that was down, roughly the same as where LSAG was. So down 20 is way too negative. I'll turn it over to Padraig for the second 1 and then I can jump back for the last.
Yes. Look, I think we're very close to our China team and the local team has seen an increased activity. We're seeing that improve from last quarter. And for clarity, of course, not building any benefit from the stainless into our Q4 guide. But what we're seeing is we're seeing in early days, we're hearing that the stimulus is broader in terms of its reach over a 3-year period. Having said that, we are hearing the performance tranche will likely be focused on academic and government accounts. But again, it's early days. As it trickles down through provinces as the mechanism of the funding goes, we'll be sure to update as we know that.
Yes. And I think just the last one real quick. It's too early. We're not going to get into what we're looking at for FY '25 other than to say that we expect improvement throughout the year.
And I'll now turn the call back over to Parmeet Ahuja for any closing remarks.
Thanks, Regina, and thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. With that, we would like to end the call. Have a good rest of the day, everyone.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.