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Yes Bank Ltd
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Good evening, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 FY '21 Earnings Conference Call for YES Bank Limited. On the management panel, we have Mr. Prashant Kumar, MD and CEO, YES Bank; Mr. Niranjan Banodkar, Group Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Rajan Pental, Global Head, Retail Banking; and Mr. Ashish Agarwal, Global Head, Wholesale banking. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now request Mr. Prashant Kumar to address the participants. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
So thank you, and a very good evening to all of you who are joining us on this quarterly earnings call. And first, I would like to give you some, say, what we feel on the ground in terms of what is the -- how the things are improving or what is their traction.So I think overall, what we are seeing is that confidence coming back. There is a gradual improvement in both for the demand for credit and also in terms of the improvement on the collection efficiency. We are very near to pre-COVID levels in both the cases. But definitely, I think it will take some more time where we will see improvement in terms of the jobs and more on the ground level. On the deposit side, we have been able to increase our deposits by almost 8% quarter-on-quarter and 39% over a period of 9 months. And for the first time in the last 4 quarters, there is an improvement on the CASA ratio, which is at now 26%. And in fact, when we have started our drive for customer acquisition, so earlier, it used to be 45,000, 50,000 accounts per month. Last month, we have reached to almost 85,000. And in fact, in December quarter, we have opened 2.2 lakh CASA accounts as compared to 1.5 lakh accounts last quarter. So we are seeing the momentum on the deposit side, and this is despite our gradual reduction in our rate of interest. And because of that, our cost of funding and cost of deposit is gradually coming down. We are seeing the same traction on the loan side. There is more traction on the retail and MSME, and we have kept a target of INR 10,000 crores for disbursement on the retail and MSME for the quarter 3. And against the INR 10,000 crores, we have disbursed almost INR 12,000 crores in retail and MSME. And on corporate side, our disbursement was around INR 2,000 crores, so in line with our business strategy to have more focus on retail and MSME. Our retail advances mix has improved to 28% from 24% last quarter. And we are seeing, during the current time also, this kind of demand coming from retail, MSME and on the corporate. And we would be very cautious in terms of the risk profile of the customer. But I think we would be able to grow in the same way during the current quarter also. Now coming back on the profitability side. Bank has registered a operating profit of INR 2,286 crores, which is a 68% growth quarter-on-quarter. And out of this operating profit of INR 2,286 crores, coupled with write-back of provisions, we were able to make adequate provisions in our existing NPA and NPI book and also create an additional COVID provision of INR 765 crores. So as of now, the aggregated COVID provision is INR 2,683 crores. Along with this, because of the provisioning made on the NPA and NPI, our provision coverage for NPA has improved to 76.8%. And if we also include the technical write-off, then the provision coverage is almost 81%. On the NPI also, our provision coverage has improved from 70% to almost 78%. And because of this provisioning, our net NPA number has come down to 4% against 4.7% last quarter. So after making these provisions, it's the third consecutive quarter where bank has registered a net profit. For this time, net profit is INR 151 crores as compared to a loss of more than INR 18,000 crores in the corresponding quarter of last financial year. Net interest income has also grown by almost 30% quarter-on-quarter. The NIMs are around 3.4%. The noninterest income has also improved by 70% quarter-on-quarter, and there is a significant increase on the retail fee income. Our operating expenses, though, has gone up in the current quarter as compared to last quarter. But it still registered 13% Y-o-Y reduction. And because of the improvement in the earnings and the reduction on the cost side, our expenses ratio has improved to 43% as compared to 49% as at the end of quarter 2. So overall, if you see, the business is growing, a very decent business growth. And we have been able to reduce our CD ratio to 116% from the earlier of 124% at the end of quarter 2. There is a business growth. There is the improvement on the profitability side. We have also been able to make decent recoveries from our existing NPA and NPI. So in the current quarter, we have been able to make a cash recovery of INR 1,512 crores. And for the 9 months, it was INR 2,947 crores. And the P&L impact of these recoveries is INR 1,283 crores during the current quarter and INR 2,433 crores -- INR 2,430 crores for the previous 9 months. So I think we are continuously going to see this traction, where in the fourth quarter also, we are expecting recoveries and a business growth in line with what we have seen in the quarter 3. We have also given a number in terms of restructuring, so almost INR 8,000 crores, we have invoked as restructuring. And where it will be implemented, during the current quarter or some may slip to the next quarter also because we have a time up to 30th June for implementation of the restructuring. We have also given a number of standstill NPAs. Those standstill NPAs, excluding the restructuring book, is INR 7,058 crores. We have also given a provision of overdue advances between 61 to 90 days. And excluding restructuring part, that is something around INR 3,432 crores. But both the categories, whether 61 to 90 days or more than 90 days, these are those accounts where there is the impact of COVID. And we believe that upgradation would be comparatively much easier as compared to the sticky NPA accounts. But definitely, we need to work on this and the provisions which we are carrying for COVID, this is INR 2,683 crores, is sufficient to take care of the provisioning requirement on the restructuring book as well as on the standstill NPAs. And still, we have the fourth quarter results to have the recoveries and any operating -- PPOP kind of number. So I would stop here, and the entire management team here would be very happy to respond or answer -- respond to your questions or answer any clarification. Thank you so much.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Suresh Ganapathy from Macquarie.
Hello. You can hear me?
Yes, sir. Please go ahead.
Yes. Sure. Sir, a question on -- if you look at Page 17 or Slide 17 of your presentation, so I just wanted to understand or reconcile whether there are any overlaps here. So what you are saying is that the total pool is INR 18,551 crores, which is as per 90-day overdue by Supreme Court, 61- to 90-day and COVID-19 restructuring, right, INR 18,551 crores.
Right.
And if I were to include 31- to 60-day overdue, excluding the overlap of INR 2,575 crores, it means another INR 10,000 crores I have to add to this INR 18,551 crores, right?
Correct.
So the total number is INR 28,551 crores, right?
Correct.
Roughly, roughly. [Foreign Language] Okay. And this INR 28,551 crores, you are carrying a provisioning of INR 2,683 crores.
So I think this is something where we basically disconnect because the provisioning requirement is either for the exchanges in NPA or for the restructuring, okay? And I think if you see any financial institution, and if you see the customer behavior, there are a large number of customers who are always 30 -- either more than 30 days overdue, 30 to 60 days and 60 to 90. So these customers can make payment maybe on the 89th day kind of thing or maybe around 45 days. So this is a normal thing which happens even doing the pre-COVID times. So it is not like everything is at risk. But definitely, the standstill NPA is the NPA. And 61 to 90 days, it is, again, like everything will slip. Some amount would slip here, some amount would come back. And some amount from 31 to 60 days also ultimately move to the standstill NPA category. So we have done a very granular analysis, and our understanding is that the overall restructuring and the slippage would be confined between this INR 18,500 crores kind of thing.
No. So -- okay. So let me hypothetically assume that the total set book, which is more than 30-day overdue without any overlaps, is INR 28,000 crores. And in general, you have got a contingent provision of INR 2,700 crores, which is COVID-19 provisions. I don't want to earmark this book, that's the interpretation. I just wanted to reconcile that there is no overlap here, right?
Yes. There is no overlap. But the only disconnect is with -- I didn't say there is no revenue provision of INR 2,600 crores or INR 28,000 crores. So this is not correct. We are having a provision only for the standstill NPAs and the restructuring.
Okay. Clear. And there is no overlap of this INR 28,000 crores with the INR 42,000 crores that you're reporting as of December '20.
Correct.
Okay. So this INR 28,000 crores is over and above the INR 42,000 crores that has been reported. Okay. This is very clear, Mr. Kumar.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of [ Nikhil Delany ], who's an individual investor.
Hello?
Yes, [ Nikhil ], please go ahead.
Hello?
Hello. We are able to hear you.
Yes. Okay. Sir, my first question is regarding fund raised. What was the need -- I mean, we raised INR 15,000 crores recently. And what was the need for raising INR 10,000 crores more? Because this could lead to an equity dilution and also could affect current shareholders.
So basically, as of now, we don't have the approval of shareholders as a process to raise any equity if there is a need, okay? And getting shareholder approval takes a long time, which is around 45 days to 60 days. So we have just taken the enabling provision to raise capital from the Board and up to INR 10,000 crores. So it is not like in 2 days, INR 10,000 crores. So this is just the enabling provision to raise capital up to INR 10,000 crores. And after that, we will take the approval of the shareholders so that we have the approvals in place that in case if we find good growth opportunities, then those should not be missed only because of the lack of capital. So if there are good growth opportunities, we can try to raise some capital.
Okay. The reason why I asked that, sir, was last time -- I mean during past interviews also, it was mentioned from your end that we won't need any capital and be sufficient for 2 years, including for growth. So I just wanted to understand what changed lately that we thought of going ahead of at least making a provision or a fund raise of INR 10,000 crores?
No. So basically, again, like I would repeat, it's not a fund raise of INR 10,000 crores. This is just the enabling provision that if there is a requirement for growth, then we can immediately step into the market.
Okay. Sir, second question is in recent interviews, you've said that previously, we had considered that there might be a recovery from the old NPAs. It will be close to -- I mean, LGDs will be close to 70%. But recently, in one of the interviews, you said, we could have a recovery of 50%. So basically, that means -- and I'm just assuming, that means the interpretation of that is that 50% could be LGDs. So does that still stand? I mean -- or are we still at 70% LGDs from the old notes?
So I think if you see, there's no point of time we have said that LGD would be 70%. This was the estimate made by the external agencies. They don't test us as a pool. They have calculated that it -- basically, from their part, it was something around 60%. And we were saying that we have made a 75% provision, so -- which is sufficient to take care of even a recovery of 50%. But what we have seen, and again, I would like to review those numbers, if you see the recovery which we have made, almost INR 3,000 crores in 9 months, there, the P&L advantage is almost INR 2,430 crores out of INR 3,000 crores. So if you see overall, our recovery is much better than this. When I said 50%, 50% was on the aggregate basis because we had some assets where we don't have the securities. Therefore, recoveries will be lower. But I think on aggregate basis, a recovery of 50% is something which we are quite hopeful.
Okay. Okay. Okay. And sir, my last question is on pro forma gross NPAs. It's -- as we mentioned before this, during press release, that you -- not press release, but live press conference, that the pro forma gross NPAs are close to 20%. So what are the pro forma net NPAs, I mean, considering the provision that we have taken, if you could share that number?
No. So this is only a gross GNPA number. So question was that as of now, we are nearing 15.5%. So if we also consider the standstill NPAs, then the gross NPA percentage would begin around 19.5% to 20%, okay? Only qualitative...
[indiscernible] numbers...
Sorry?
So in a similar way, would it be possible for us, considering the provisions we have taken, to come up with a pro forma net NPA? I'm just...
So if we see, our net NPA ratio as of now is 4%, okay? So we will see how much provisions we make. But we will make NPA provisions, so that the net NPA ratio remains within that percentage.
The next question is from the line of Mahrukh Adajania from Elara Capital.
Sir, in your pro forma NPAs, on the corporate side, how many accounts would that be roughly?
So if you were talking of number of accounts?
Yes, sir.
So I think that -- you have, Niranjan, that figure?
We'll come back on that question.
We'll come back on this.
Okay. And sir, any sectoral flavor?
No, not any sectoral kind of thing. But definitely, the impact of COVID is more on the hospitality industry, real estate, entertainment. So basically, these are the sectors which have been seasonally affected because of the COVID. And the current standstill NPAs are mostly from these sectors.
Got it, sir. Sir, and would you be in a position to quantify the collection efficiency at end December or...
So on the retail side, our collection efficiency has improved to 96%. And pre-COVID level, we were 97%.
Got it, sir. Sir, and there's also a lot of discussion around a bad bank you want to close. Would you have any comments on that?
So we want to set up an ARC kind of a structure, okay? So only thing is that we are waiting for the regulatory approvals for it.
So the regulatory approval comes at any form soon?
Yes.
And so, sir, how will it work? You will transfer all your -- I mean, what proportion of GNPLs would be transferred? How will it look like?
So we would like to transfer the entire stock of the NPAs to this entity at a fair market rate.
Okay. And you will have SRs in return, something like that?
Yes.
Okay. And who will manage the ARC?
So I think this is something which, depending on the regulatory approvals, we need to work whether -- definitely, the management would be an independent body, okay? But depending on the regulatory approval, we need to take over the areas that are truly at stake.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Mahesh M.B. from Kotak Securities.
Just one question, again, extending Suresh's question earlier. When we look at the presentation for 2Q and you see the numbers there, the summary of the labeled exposures that you seem to have given there has seen a very, very sharp jump. So just trying to reconcile what happened in this quarter that you saw such a sharp jump?
So Mahesh, we've -- one, we've seen approximately INR 1,400 crores of book that is -- that distinguish -- the date of commencement of operations has been deferred by 1 year, and we've made the commensurate provisions required as such. So that is one piece. The second is what we have also done is we've also disclosed the exposure, where you will have the -- as of June 7 circular application. So even that, we have brought into the disclosure.
Sir, how does that change so much in terms of -- sorry, I meant as of June 7, sir, I mean, how does this change?
So for example, in case there is any particular, let's say, default in any particular account, there is a certain time line with which -- within which you are supposed to follow the implementation of RP. Now it is possible there is servicing the debt. But technically, if they have not cleared the debt across the banking sector, there could be some provisioning requirements. So we have also brought that into the disclosure.
Okay. And is it a fair assumption to say that the probability of slippages now seems to be extremely high, given that there is a -- the corporate has exhibited a default? Sir, just trying to see -- the basic idea, Niranjan, here is that, look, the numbers suddenly has shot up to a little over INR 28,000 crores. So we're just trying to kind of figure out as to what should we look at in terms of gross and net NPAs in the coming 3 quarters.
No. I think what we need to make a distinction, Mahesh, that when we are talking of INR 28,000 crores, we are taking overdue of more than 30 days, which is a normal thing for any bank to have the overdue position, like suppose if this kind of situation has not been there, banks are having always the exposures which are between 30 to 60 or 60 to 90, which actually does not slip to NPA. So there are customers who always pay after [ the day ].
So -- okay. So you -- as per your expectation, you say that things may have not changed too much as compared to 2Q? Or do you think that there has been a marked differentiation? Because this update that you have given today appears to be a lot more stress for the bank.
So thankfully, right, I think from the very beginning, what we are saying that there is a COVID-related stress on some of the sectors, okay? And that kind of stress we are seeing is getting along with it because like certain sectors, hospitality, real estate, we have still not seen, they have come back to the new normal situation. So definitely -- so initially, if a person is, say, 30 days overdue, and if you don't see any improvement in that sector, that 30 days would become 60 days or 90 days. That may help us.
Sure. Sorry, just one corresponding question to this. You couldn't have moved this exposure to the ECLGS 2.0?
Yes.
Sorry, I'm just asking the question. You couldn't do it? Or...
No. But for the credit line, there were some eligibility criteria. So everything would not be eligible for emergency credit line, okay? So that is one part. And then second thing, that we were also very careful in terms of using the emergency credit line only for genuine needs, not for postponing the problem.
Just want to add one point, which is very important, you were talking more 30 plus. So normally, you would always see, in any earning portfolio, [ a check of ] -- and the rest of the portfolio is maybe anything between 6% to 8%, right? We have seen some elevated levels with the industries of -- over a period of time, but the resolution also is around 97%, 98%. It's the best sort of thing. So I think you should segregate these and then look both of them separately. That is a way to understand it better.
Sir, the reason we're asking is that, look, there is an accounting provisions which the balance -- the P&L has to take, and it has consequent impact on capital as compared to the recoveries that you are talking about or resolutions that you're talking about here. If there's a timing mismatch between the 2, then it creates a problem on the stock price. So just trying to understand how do we see this entire movement? That's the whole point of this entire exercise of asking this question.
Very absolutely. So -- but basically, in our own estimate, the book at risk is around this INR 18,000 crores, including a restructuring book of around INR 8,000 crores.
[Operator Instructions] Next question is from Mahrukh Adajania from Elara Capital.
Sir, could you share the disbursement under ECLGS 2 and the total under ECLGS 1 so far?
So total disbursement this quarter is approximately INR 1,000 crores. And the cumulative disbursement would be INR 3,200 crores, including this quarter, INR 1,000 crores.
Okay. But how much would be ECLGS 2 out of that?
The INR 900, INR 1,000 crores that I mentioned would be the ECLGS 2.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Utsav Gogirwar from B&K Securities.
Yes. This is Jai here. Could you share the pre-quarter exposure in the restructuring, where they have been invoked?
So restructuring, we have shared, is always around [indiscernible]. If you see the Slide 17 of our presentation, so far, INR 8,000 crores we have invoked.
Right, sir. The top 3 sectors in that or the top 3 accounts, actually, by sector?
That would be the -- between the real estate and hospitality sector.
Sorry, sir, there's some disturbance. So one is the real estate.
Real estate and the hospitality sector.
Okay. Sure. And second, sir, if you have shared the collection efficiency for corporate, I missed that number, sir.
So I think that collection efficiency always works for the retail part, okay, which is 96%. On the MSME and corporate, we always see in terms of how the throughput is there and how the utilization or the overview. So what we have seen, throughput has improved where there were channeling the portfolio. And even the utilization of the limit, it has still not improved. So that gives us the signal in terms of really prudent utilization of even the existing lines.
Okay. Okay. And sir, in corporate restructuring, I think the number that you have given is the proposal that you have received. And at least on the larger proposals, how confident are you in terms of it getting invoked -- sorry, in getting implemented? Because it seems that the restructuring would have to be passed through ratings, the rest through [ defined IP ], et cetera. So do you see that at least the predominant restructuring earmarked in corporate should at least -- sir, a large part of it should get restructured without any hurdles? Because otherwise, it would have to go through the downgradation part.
No. So I actually agree with you. When we have done the invocation, it is like we have seen overall whether it would qualify or not, but they have to get a rating. They have to get their [indiscernible] in place, and we need to do a due diligence on them. And unless it will be able to clear all these filters, the restructuring would not be implemented.
Right. So these accounts should be restructured, right, without any material hurdle?
Sorry. Again, can you repeat?
Sorry, sir. So I'm saying that the bank is confident that these accounts will get restructured without any hurdle, procedural hurdles?
Correct. Correct.
Right. Sorry -- and sir, the FITL amounts, if you have, for the bank as a whole where the -- FITL money, which is outstanding at the bank level?
Do we have it? No, I think we don't have that number at this point.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Kunal Shah from ICICI Securities.
Yes. So just -- maybe just to, once again, clarify. Last time was you highlighted in terms of 30 to 90 which was INR 6,700 crores. Now it is fair to assume that, that amount is INR 19,000 crores.
Yes.
INR 12,000 crores plus INR 6,500 crores.
Correct.
Okay. And when we look at it in terms of the interest treatment for this entire pool of INR 18-odd thousand crores, maybe in terms of this standstill plus risk, so we are seeing that this is a pool which is at risk. Plus when we look at it in terms of the GNPLs, the other accounts which are there in terms of the standard restructure, which are again not the part of -- now instead of restructure on [ 16 ] and restructure on [ 17 ], there is no over left. So then what would be the overall interest treatment on this entire pool which is at risk?
So the only thing is that interest treatment for the standstill NPAs, okay? And they would slip into that category after the verdict. Then we need to reverse the interest on their group from the date of the NPA, okay? But whereas in case of restructuring, it will not be a reversal. It would be more in terms of how we will take it, how the [indiscernible] would happen, what kind of treatment we give for the interest. But everything would be as per the [indiscernible].
Yes. But as of now, we are accruing the interest on this entire INR 18,000 crores.
Correct. Correct.
And it's there in our margins as of now?
Absolutely. Absolutely.
Okay. And lastly, in terms of retail also, okay, when we look at it in terms of the standstill accounts plus maybe the overdue, so almost like INR 1,600-odd crores coming in from retail and maybe INR 800-odd crores coming in from the SME as well. And last time, maybe we highlighted that maybe we are not seeing such a stress on the retail and the SME portfolio compared to that of the reported GNPL. And incrementally, I think there are still disbursements going on. So would there be more worry in terms of the further stress flowing onto the retail side? Or maybe this 4%, 5% of retail/MSME, which is currently getting reflected, that seems to be more or less as well given the kind of growth which we have seen?
So on the retail side, if you actually break it up, so first of all, there are segments which have -- which will take a little longer to come back to the normal business cycle. And we have an exposure on the commercial side of the loans. But having said that, most of them, majority of them, which we had explained last time also, were actually never [ instructed ] before. So there would be -- we had given a guidance that quarterly, from retail, it can actually go to 3.2%. And similarly, for MSME, it can also go up 3.5%. But that would be a temporary phenomenon. We are already seeing that -- those corrections happening. We are seeing the limit utilization still hovering at around 70% to 75%. We are also seeing the collection efficiency actually going back to the normal level of 95%, 96%. So if you look at these indicators and possibly for the entire industry, I know that you are getting competitive data also, there is definitely a increase, but I think this increase is temporary. And within 1 year's time, this would actually start leveling down, both for retail and SME.The second part is on the 30 plus. See, normally, what you see in the industry is the typical write-off at the -- on 6-month basis. We carry it till 12 months. So the overall stock is very, very high. But our initial bond sales have -- which had peaked up to around 18%, are actually now down to around 9%, with the best [indiscernible] 7.6%. So we see in the next 1 to 2 months, I think it is actually heading back towards the normal levels. So I think this is absolutely going as per the guidance and not anything away. As far as the new business is concerned, obviously, in line with the industry. And particularly, we are introducing safe zone market space with our presence. We have made some changes, but then we also -- in the criteria [indiscernible]. But then we are also seeing our demand pick up, and most of it is, whether it is internal or it is the business is sourced through the dealers, et cetera, those are the businesses which are seeing an upswing. So both commercial vehicle and auto industry have actually seen an upswing. And even less is a lower NPV of hovering at around 60%, 65%, there is a good demand coming from 700-plus scores. So these are good customers to attain. So I think that with that basis on -- which is growing also in the [indiscernible] segment of the market.
Sure. Sure. And just to recap, so there is no overlap between the restructured on 16 and 17, right? It's all together at INR 28,000 crores and whatever is the restructure. And so they are like over and above that.
That's correct. But that said, Kunal, Slide 16 will have restructure that has been fully implemented, 17 is -- which has been invoked but not yet implemented.
Okay. And this is invoked, then -- which will get implemented over the next [ 10 ] months. Okay.
Yes.
That was the last question. There are no further questions in queue.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Thank you. On behalf of YES Bank Limited, that concludes the conference. Thank you for joining us, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect your lines.