Varun Beverages Ltd
NSE:VBL
| US |
|
Fubotv Inc
NYSE:FUBO
|
Media
|
| US |
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
Banking
|
| US |
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
Technology
|
| US |
C
|
C3.ai Inc
NYSE:AI
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
Uber Technologies Inc
NYSE:UBER
|
Road & Rail
|
| CN |
|
NIO Inc
NYSE:NIO
|
Automobiles
|
| US |
|
Fluor Corp
NYSE:FLR
|
Construction
|
| US |
|
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
NYSE:J
|
Professional Services
|
| US |
|
TopBuild Corp
NYSE:BLD
|
Consumer products
|
| US |
|
Abbott Laboratories
NYSE:ABT
|
Health Care
|
| US |
|
Chevron Corp
NYSE:CVX
|
Energy
|
| US |
|
Occidental Petroleum Corp
NYSE:OXY
|
Energy
|
| US |
|
Matrix Service Co
NASDAQ:MTRX
|
Construction
|
| US |
|
Automatic Data Processing Inc
NASDAQ:ADP
|
Technology
|
| US |
|
Qualcomm Inc
NASDAQ:QCOM
|
Semiconductors
|
| US |
|
Ambarella Inc
NASDAQ:AMBA
|
Semiconductors
|
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
410.9265
673.5543
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches INR.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
|
|
Fubotv Inc
NYSE:FUBO
|
US |
|
|
Bank of America Corp
NYSE:BAC
|
US |
|
|
Palantir Technologies Inc
NYSE:PLTR
|
US |
|
C
|
C3.ai Inc
NYSE:AI
|
US |
|
|
Uber Technologies Inc
NYSE:UBER
|
US |
|
|
NIO Inc
NYSE:NIO
|
CN |
|
|
Fluor Corp
NYSE:FLR
|
US |
|
|
Jacobs Engineering Group Inc
NYSE:J
|
US |
|
|
TopBuild Corp
NYSE:BLD
|
US |
|
|
Abbott Laboratories
NYSE:ABT
|
US |
|
|
Chevron Corp
NYSE:CVX
|
US |
|
|
Occidental Petroleum Corp
NYSE:OXY
|
US |
|
|
Matrix Service Co
NASDAQ:MTRX
|
US |
|
|
Automatic Data Processing Inc
NASDAQ:ADP
|
US |
|
|
Qualcomm Inc
NASDAQ:QCOM
|
US |
|
|
Ambarella Inc
NASDAQ:AMBA
|
US |
This alert will be permanently deleted.
Varun Beverages Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Varun Beverages Ltd
Despite facing unseasonal rains during the peak season, the company concluded the calendar year 2023 on a high note, exhibiting resilient performance. The narrative unfolds with a 13.9% increase in consolidated sales volume and a 7% rise in the net realization per case, contributing to a significant 21.8% revenue growth.
Strategic initiatives such as commissioning multiple greenfield and brownfield facilities have bolstered the company's manufacturing capabilities and market reach. A vital chapter in the growth story was the acquisition of BevCo, promising to augment the company's African market presence.
The company's EBITDA saw an uplifting 29.5% increase, with margins improving to 22.5%, indicative of operational efficiency and better gross margins, which were up by 137 basis points to 53.8% despite a slight surge in sugar prices. Enhanced profitability was also reflected in the PAT, which grew by 35.6%.
Investments in sustainable practices, such as the utilization of green energy and the reuse of PET, align with the company's commitment to environmental stewardship. The ambition for a greener future is not only ethical but strategic, preparing the company for long-term success.
The company's net CapEx stood at approximately INR 21,000 million by the end of 2023, with significant amounts allocated to developing new production facilities and expanding existing ones. The net debt level was reported at INR 47,345 million, reflecting a balance between growth investments and financial prudence.
In a gesture that reflects confidence in the company's financial health and alignment with shareholder interests, the Board of Directors approved a final dividend of INR 1.25 per equity share, leading to a total annual dividend of INR 2.50 per equity share.
Looking ahead, the company's strategic investments and operational excellence pave the way for sustained growth. The narrative concludes with optimism, suggesting that the company is well-positioned to maintain its growth trajectory in the years to come.
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Varun Beverages Limited Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Anoop Poojari from CDR India. And over to you.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Varun Beverages Q4 and CY 2023 Earnings Conference Call. We have with us Mr. Ravi Jaipuria, Chairman of the company; Mr. Varun Jaipuria, Executive Vice Chairman and Whole-Time Director; and Mr. Raj Gandhi, Group CFO and Whole-Time Director of the company. We will initiate the call with opening remarks from the management, following which we have the forum open for a question-and-answer session.
Before we begin, I would like to point out that some statements made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature, and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation shared with you earlier.
I will now request Mr. Ravi Jaipuria to make his opening remarks.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our earnings conference call. I hope all of you had the opportunity to go through our results presentation that provides details of our operational and financial performance for the fourth quarter and year ended 31st December 2023.
Despite the abnormally high unseasonal rain in the peak season, we are pleased to conclude CY 2023 on a strong note. We witnessed a healthy double-digit volume growth in both Indian and international markets. Our consolidated sales volume increased by 13.9%, and the net realization per case increased by 7% in 2023. Both these together contributed to the -- to our remarkable revenue growth of 21.8% and an impressive PAT growth of 35.6%.
In line with our strategic objectives, we have successfully commissioned multiple greenfield and brownfield facilities across key geographies during the year. This expansion not only strengthened our manufacturing capabilities, but also extended our market reach. Our distribution network and chilling infrastructure have also seen a substantial growth, further solidifying our presence in the market.
Making a key milestone in our growth journey, we are delighted to announce the acquisition of The Beverage Company, BevCo, subject to regulatory and other approvals. BevCo holds franchise rights for PepsiCo beverages product in South Africa, Lesotho and Eswatini, along with distribution rights in Namibia and Botswana.
This acquisition will -- which aligns perfectly with our strategic goals offers an excellent opportunity to significantly enhance our presence in the African market, a region known for high demand for soft drinks and favorable demographics.
The integration of BevCo into VBL operation is expected to yield substantial synergy benefits in the future. As part of our long-term vision and in line with PepsiCo's global pep+ objective, we remain committed to substantially -- to sustainability and environmental stewardship.
We are making investments that emphasize using green energy as well as reuse of PET, which will be instrument in mitigating environmental impact. These endeavors are aligned with our pledge to the environment and reflects our ambition to nature -- nurture a greener future.
We are also pleased to share that in line with our dividend policy, the Board of Directors have approved the payment of final dividend of INR 1.25 per equity share of the face value of INR 5, subject to the approval of equity shareholders ensuing Annual General Meeting of the company. With this total dividend declared for the year December 31, 2023, stands at INR 2.50 per equity share of face value of INR 5.
As we move forward, our strategy is geared towards sustaining our healthy growth momentum. We will continue to focus on strengthening our market position, both in India and international, and place emphasis on product categories that are aligned with evolving consumer preferences.
Our journey through 2023 has set a solid foundation for continued success, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver sustainable growth and value for our stakeholders in the years to come.
I would now invite Mr. Gandhi to provide the highlights of the operation and financial performance. Thank you.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Good afternoon, and a warm welcome to everyone joining us today. Let me provide an overview of the financial performance for the fourth quarter and the year ended 31st December 2023.
Revenue from operations adjusted for excise/GST increased by 21.58% -- 21.8% to the level of INR 160,425 million in CY 2023. Consolidated sales volume grew by 13.9% to the level of 912.9 million cases in CY 2023 from the earlier level of 801.8 million cases in the CY 2022 led by double-digit growth in both Indian and international markets with an increase of 12.9% and 18%, respectively.
During the year, CY 2023, the consolidated net realization per case increased by 7% to INR 175.7 per case. This is driven by the improvement in the mix of smaller SKUs and the mix of CSD in the Indian market and higher realization per case in the international markets. In CY 2023, CSD constituted 72%, juices contributed 6% and packaged drinking water constituted 22% of the total sales volume.
Our gross margins during the year improved by 137 basis points, taking it to the level of 53.8% from the earlier level of 52.5%, primarily due to the softening of PET chip prices, although sugar prices increased slightly during the year.
As a result of improved realization per case and enhanced gross margins, EBITDA increased by 29.5% to the level of INR 36,094.9 million, with EBITDA margin improving 133 basis points to the level of 22.5% in CY 2023. In other words, the company had been able to had cash to total 137 basis point improvement in gross margins through the EBITDA margin improvement.
Depreciation increased by 10.3% in CY 2023 on account of capitalization of assets and setting up of new production facilities. Finance cost increased by 44%, which was primarily led by the increase in the average cost of borrowings by about 30% to the level of 7.95% per annum from the earlier 6 point some basis point in the last year. This is in line with the increasing rate of interest in India.
PAT increased by 35.6% to the level of INR 21,018 million in 2023 from the level of INR 15,501 million in CY 2022 on account of growth in revenue from operations and improved profit margins.
On the balance sheet front, our new -- our net CapEx stood at approximately INR 21,000 million at the end of CY 2023, reflecting our commitment to growth and expansion. Out of the total CapEx, around INR 8,500 million was spent on setting up of 2 new greenfield production facilities in Bundi, Rajasthan and Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh.
Around INR 8,000 million on brownfield expansion at 6 of our existing facilities in India. And the balance for brownfield expansion in the international market, assets written-off and ForEx fluctuation, et cetera, all taken together.
Furthermore, as part of our growth strategy, we have invested approximately INR 1,500 million towards land acquisition, including Buxar in Bihar, Kangra in Himachal Pradesh, in anticipation of construction of plants in the future years. Our -- once commissioned, the combined CapEx for '23 and '24 season will increase the peak month capacity in India by around 45% over the base year of 2022.
Our net debt stood at the level of INR 47,345 million as on 31st December 2023, as against INR 34,096 million as on 31st December 2022. We would like to highlight that major reason for increase in net debt is due to increase in CWIP and capital advances immediately incrementally by INR 12,000 million, which is the composition of closing CWIP of INR 24,000 million minus the opening CIP -- CWIP of INR 12,000 million. This is due to super plant in Maharashtra, which was near about implementation by the year-end and came in production effective from 25th January 2024.
Further, we expect to additionally incur approximately INR 12,000 million towards CapEx for the season of INR 24,000. That's the balance CapEx for the next year. Our debt-to-equity ratio remained healthy at a level of 0.67x, and the debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 1.31x as on 31st December 2023.
To summarize our journey of last 5 years, while our net revenues have grown at a CAGR of 22.5%, our PAT has grown with a CAGR of 45.2%, which is lead by improved EBITDA margins, higher asset utilization to depreciation as a percentage of revenue, reducing from 6.9% to 4.2% in the corresponding period of 5 years.
And it takes rates coming down from 32.2% to 23.3% average primarily because of improved profitability of international operations and the lower corporate income tax in India. All these factors have led to PAT margins improving from 6.6% to 13.1% over the last 5 years.
As we close CY 2023, we are immensely proud of our progress we have made at VBL. Our robust operational and financial performance, significant expansion in manufacturing capabilities have all contributed to a remarkable year. Our growth focused CapEx for the year highlights our commitment in creating a long-term sustainable value.
Looking forward, our strategic investments, combined with our proven execution capabilities and demonstrated operational excellence should enable us to sustain our growth outlook in the forthcoming years.
On that note, I come to an end of the opening remarks and would like to now ask the moderator to open the forum for any questions or suggestions that you may have. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] We have our first question from the line of Vivek Maheshwari from Jefferies.
A few questions. So first is on the EBIT and CapEx for 2024. So Mr. Gandhi, I would imagine INR 1,900 crores, bulk of this will be for the capacity that you commissioned in Maharashtra, right, the CWIP what is lying in -- as on 31 December?
Absolutely, absolutely. About INR 900 crore out of this INR 1,200 crore implemented was for tax, that's right, which got implemented on 25th January.
Okay. Got it. So what will be for the rest of the year? You said INR 1,200 crores cash flow -- outflow on CapEx. Is that correct?
Basically, the plan for the year is INR 3,600 CapEx, out of which INR 3,000 crore in India and INR 600 internationally, and 2,400 crore as CWIP we are carrying on 31st December. The INR 1,200 crore balance is to be spent in the next year, plus any CWIP for '25 season.
Okay. So for '25, so actual cash outlook can be higher than, therefore, INR 1,200 crores, right?
That's right, that's right.
Got it. On the debt side, INR 4,700 crores roughly, and INR 1,300 crores will go for the acquisition. So where do you think at what level, Mr. Gandhi, the debt peaks?
See, I think the best way will be to look at it as a percentage because we have given a percentage that could be 0.67. It will remain under that because the -- all these CapEx is ahead of the season. And capacity, which is being created, will generate enough profit to pay for itself.
So if you noticed in last few years, our debt equity and debt to EBITDA is improving, in spite of doing all this CapEx. I think that's the biggest indicator, and we should draw comfort from there.
Yes, yes. Sure. I mean, yes, there is obviously a comfort. But specifically on debt, given the acquisitions and -- so I understand balance sheet is strong. Cash flows are strong. The new capacities will add to operating cash. But at what level do you think the actual debt level peaks?
I think it's -- because INR 1,300 is equaling to 2, 3 months cash profit actually once the season starts. So that's not a challenge. And look at last year, as the Chairman stated, last year, the season was a washout.
And in spite of that, we are so comfortable, and even INR 1,200 crores CWIP has gone up and funded very easily and without debt equity ratio being -- going up. So this year, hopefully, the season once is much better than the last year and with the plants already executed 45% capacity going up. So the things should remain much more comfortable.
Got it. Moving to P&L, two questions. First, on the realization, you have explained in the past also and on this call, as we look into -- so 7% growth this year, 6% last year. I know last -- as in 2022 had a bit of a base issue, but India realization as well as international did quite well.
2024, where do you think -- so do you think the low-hanging fruit in terms of the mix change has played out and, therefore, the number should be more moderate as we head into 2024 on the realization -- unit realization book?
It could be slightly moderate, but I think if you really look at it in our industry, our peak season is March to July, and that whole 4 months was a complete washout in 2023. So we have -- and if we have done a growth of 13.9% with a complete washout peak season, I mean, I can only -- cannot predict the rain gods. But otherwise, I don't see any reason why it should not be much better.
Sorry. Mr. Jaipuria, that comment was on rupees per case realization you are talking about?
Rupees per case [ automatically ] better because it -- peak season, always the small pack sells more. And the small pack realization is always much higher.
See, Vivek, in the past, we have given a guidance that over a larger period, realization increase in the year is about 2%, if you see a period of 10 years, 20 years, 30 years. So it will never be as sharp, but a lot of juice is left because energy drink category and various other new flavors and Gatorade and other value-added products, dairy, et cetera.
Our other two plants are also starting, which will have value-added dairy, which is high value products. Our Tropicana sale will go up. So I mean, I would not -- we have never said where we are, but I think with the volumes going up, everything will slightly -- you'll see slight more improvements.
Very interesting. Got it. And the last bit is on EBITDA margins. You have in the past -- 2023, you have ended just around 23%, which is higher than what you have historically given ballpark.
Do you think that the margin range will be better than what you historically thought or we should see margins going down as we go forward -- given that you are going...
It's better to do better than what we say, so we'll stick to what we have said before and hope to do better than that. So we have never said 21%, 22% is the EBITDA margins we have stated. I think that's a very high EBITDA margin in our industry, and we would like to stick to that.
Yes. I actually respect that point of view, Mr. Jaipuria, but you are at 23% now given that business is growing strongly. Even if we don't build any operating leverage, unlikely that these margins should go down. So 23% should be the new level. Is that fair?
No. I would not like to say that because there are so many things that are geopolitical today. Certainly, the freight charges have gone up. Some days, the sugar charges go up. So we would not like to say that it would -- we would not like to comment that we would be more than 21%, 22%. And God willing, if things go well, we could be better. But we would not like to predict.
Vivek, particularly for this year, as we stated, PET prices has softened, and the effect of that has been reflected in the bottom line from the gross profit to the EBITDA level.
We have our next question from the line of Aditya Soman from CLSA.
I have a set of question. Firstly, on the India business, what is really differentiating Varun compared with some of the other players that have reported results? Because most of them have reported flattish or even declines -- a decline in revenues. So especially in this quarter, we've seen very strong numbers.
What do you think is the big differentiator there. In a weak macro environment, you have some very strong growth. And second question with regards to the acquisition in South Africa, when do you expect the closure of that acquisition? Any update in terms of time line?
Okay. First, for the growth, I think every call I have said that our -- we are improving our go-to-market. We are adding more chilling equipment. And the key reason for our growth, which some of the maybe other companies are not showing, is our go-to-market. We are enhancing our go-to-market. We are adding close to 400,000 to 500,000 new outlets every year, and that is what the main source of our growth is coming.
And as I had said that power is no longer a challenge in this country. And because power is now available in villages, we are able to please -- place more chilling equipment, and we are able to go more deeper and deeper into the rural markets.
And if you would have heard last year, most of the companies were saying rural market was not doing well for them. For us, rural market has done extremely well because of our penetration and going deeper into the market.
And secondly, as far as South Africa is concerned, we are hoping that by February end, we should get the approval. We have already got approval from Botswana. And we are in the process of waiting for the approval for Namibia and South Africa, which we hope we should get it by end of -- before the end of February. But give or take, a little bit up or down, it's in the government.
Understand. And just a couple of follow-ups. So on the first bit in terms of improving go-to-market, how much of that process is done? Or do you feel there's still a long runway for growth?
It's not completed in the next 5 years also to be honest. It's a huge journey, and you can keep on adding. And there is a limit to how much we can add because there's a lot of CapEx involved. There's a lot of people involved. So I think if we can keep on adding even 4,000 to 5,000 outlets, I think we should be very happy.
Understand. And just on that bit, I think there was -- you were talking about manufacturing your own cooler. And where are we on that process now?
We are in the process. We have not finalized it yet. As soon as we -- we hope to do it soon. As soon as we do it, then we'll let you know.
We have a next question from the line of Devanshu Bansal from Emkay Global.
And congratulations on an all-round good set of numbers. Sir, you mentioned 45% increase in capacity. So just if you could provide the absolute peak month capacity ahead of this CY '21 summer season, it would be helpful.
See, it's very difficult, Devanshu, to give you because our capacities depend on the product mix and the sizing. So it's very difficult. But if we look at comparative to what we had done in 2022, we can do 45% more than that.
Got it, sir. Got it. And secondly, sir, we -- there was some news flow around the competition. Coca-Cola also sort of transferring bottling operations to its partners in North and East regions. So wanted to check, do you foresee some increase in competition or competitive intensity because of this?
I think you can't have a more formidable competitor than the parent company. So we wish them all luck. And Coca-Cola is a very strong competitor. We'll keep on fighting. We'll keep on fighting in the market, and the best one will win.
Got it, sir. Very clear. Lastly, sir, on one hand, the [ PPT ] sort of mentioned a good amount of work that we are doing in terms of water usage reduction, PET waste reduction. Some target has been mentioned for recycled PET as well.
And on the other hand, we now see promotional launches in terms of 400 mL SKUs at INR 20 in the market. So just if you could explain how should we see the net impact of both these things on our gross margin.
No. I think PET recycling, we are doing in any case, and we are putting up our -- we have signed a joint venture with Indorama. And we hope to be in production in 2025 and -- which should take care of about 20%, 25% of our requirement, and that is what our commitment is.
So -- and we have a second plant also, which will go into production, which should be also ready by end of '25. So we'll be more than covered for the recycling part.
And more was added by the initiatives taken by the company in the waste reduction in the preform and waste reduction in the closures. And as Chairman mentioned on our PET, so altogether, of course, we are doing whatever test can be done. And target for '25 is 100% of our plastic waste to be recycled.
And sir, these savings are being sort of routed into these promotional launches, like I mentioned, 400 mL at INR 20, which is there in the market. So should...
It will keep on happening. It's a competitive world. We have -- sometimes, they will do something. We will do something. This will keep on happening, and very difficult to say because I don't know what they're going to do next. So we have to keep competing with our competition. Somewhere, we will be ahead. Somewhere, they'll be ahead.
Okay, sir. One last, if I may. The working capital at CY '23 and -- has sort of increased versus last year. So what is the reason for this? Because last couple of years, there was this advanced purchases that we were doing. This time around, what is the reason? And is it expected to sustain at current levels?
See, because the volume has gone up, therefore, the index [indiscernible], these things have gone. If you see with the number of days, it has stayed just the same. And marginally, payables has reduced. So we are -- so otherwise, there is no change.
Also risk protection, we are doing with the geopolitical situation. Certainly, the Suez Canal has got blocked. And we don't want to take any chances for any good safeguarding ourselves. .
Got it. And these payables level are expected to sustain or they are expected to go back to earlier levels, sir, payable days?
Well, depends upon the situation, but we have made the payments ahead of time. Sometimes, we get a good pricing, et cetera.
We have a next question from the line of Nihal Mahesh Jham from Nuvama.
Congratulations on the strong performance. Sir, three questions from my side. First is, if I look at the strong volume growth of 25% that we delivered in the CSD segment, historically, we've given a sense that at times, Sting and, even earlier said, Nimbooz has done well. Specifically, any products which have stood out in terms of giving a larger share of this growth?
Well, I think energy drink is still doing well for us, and our group category has started doing extremely well. If you see the last quarter, our growth has been about 20% on juices, which has been flat. And juices category have a great movement in the peak season. Unfortunately, we lost our peak season last year.
So we expect a huge growth in the juice category and our value-added dairy also because, the last year, we didn't have the capacity. We have tripled our capacity in that. So for Tropicana and as well as our value-added dairy production capabilities have gone up by 200%. So we expect the growth in both these categories to be stronger.
And I'm asking that for this quarter in the CSD, maybe you're doing something that would have given a larger share of the growth.
Mr. Jham, can you use your handset, please?
So sorry. I was asking that maybe in the CSD segment, this -- the energy drink would have given a later share of the growth, if that's fair to understand.
No. Even our CSD is growing. So if you see, our water mix has come down and our overall CSD as well as energy has gone up.
Understood. The second question was in the upcoming season, maybe there would be an increase in the competitive intensity with the third larger player coming in. So what is the changes maybe or the incremental efforts on the go-to-market? Or maybe any thoughts on the advertising side that we are planning to, in a way, take care of this? .
Well, I can't talk about the third competitor. We know he's there, and I'm sure they will do what is right for them. And we will keep on enhancing our go-to-market and do the best we can in the market. And I think the India market is growing at a reasonably good pace. It can accommodate everyone. So I think there's enough room for everyone.
Point taken. Final question was on South Africa. If you could give a sense of the current share of Pepsi and what would be the aspiration from our side. Also if you have a thought of the mix between the share of Pepsi and own brands for BevCo, and I'll do that.
The PepsiCo share is about 1.5% to -- against Coke. And the BevCo share is about 14% -- 12%. So combined, it's about 14%. And Pepsi share is only 1.5%.
Next question is from the line of Percy from IIFL.
First question on the CapEx. A few quarters ago, you had guided that the CapEx on a cash flow basis this year would be about INR 2,800 to INR 2,900 crores. It has come at INR 3,200, plus. So can you explain the reconciliation of this INR 350 crore approximately higher-than-expected CapEx?
Yes. Percy, this is, as we mentioned, in fact, the capitalization of a super plant, which we initially planned for March as per the same call. So we had been able to expedite that by a couple of months, so -- which has resulted into that.
This year's CapEx on a cash flow basis has to be paid for. On the 25th January, we were ready to make it operational. And this is in the light of the logistic issues because Gorakhpur, which we were planning for February may go to March.
So these few things, at least we wanted to cover ourselves. So instead of looking only at the cash flow, we had to ensure, so that we are fully covered for production for the next year.
Understood, sir. And this year also, we are planning on INR 1,200 crore CapEx, plus any WIP at the end of the year, which, let's say, is typically around INR 500 crores, INR 600 crores. So we are talking about INR 1,700 crore to 1,800 crores CapEx on a cash flow basis for this calendar year as well. So what are the projects that would be included in this number?
This is Gorakhpur, which we have already announced, and we had to complete that. And next is Odisha, Khordha, which we have to complete by -- in another 1 or 2 months. We have the new territory, which we had given about INR 400 crores CapEx. We have to complete that and maybe certain brownfield were another couple of hundreds there.
Okay. Understood. Secondly, just wanted to understand your opportunity in the African continent that is -- the announcement that happened until now, which is your Congo and South Africa, plus a few small countries. So I understand that the top line from the South Africa business, which you are taking over, is about INR 1,600 crores. Is that correct?
Yes, around that much. That's right.
Okay. And Congo is a completely new territory, so whatever you generate there will be on your own. So if basically I have to make an estimate for your first full year of operations, that will be CY '25 for the South Africa plus Congo, what kind of very ballpark kind of turnover and what kind of margins should we build in for these operations?
Because there is a certain valuation, which is attached to these new opportunities, which is already sort of reflecting in the share price. So for us, in order to sort of determine the fair value of the company as a whole, we also have to sort of put some fair value to these opportunities, although the business has not yet started. So any kind of flavor that you can give on this will be very helpful.
I think our suggestion would be you give us one more quarter. Let us get onto the seat of South Africa, which is the big part in this, because DRC will not start before May. So it won't even reflect in the second quarter -- next quarter also.
So I think give us a couple of months for us to fully understand that market. We have understood it, but before we start seeing any numbers, I think it will be only fair for us to understand it. It will be better than what it is. That's the only thing I can tell you.
Okay, okay. And lastly, if you can give some idea of your new initiatives. So you have mentioned 3 things, right? Juices, Gatorade and dairy-based beverages, these are the 3 new growth initiatives of the company.
So just wanted to understand that how much could these 3 initiatives add or boost your overall growth. Will it be 200 basis points, 300 basis points? Any kind of rough sort of estimate on that or any kind of way as to how you're thinking on that will be helpful.
No. First of all, these are not the only 3 initiatives we are taking. These are some of the categories where we have now got the capacity, which will give us the growth, where we were constrained with capacity last year.
But our core CSD business as well as the energy business is doing extremely well, and that is growing on its own pace. So these will be additional growth where the volume will be much more higher than anticipated.
Yes, exactly. So these additional growth drivers, the other is business as usual. And you obviously every year have some of the other projects and initiatives in all parts of this business. But this is relatively sort of new.
So apart from, let's say, if you are targeting, in normal course of business, an organic growth of 12%, with these opportunities, can it go to 14%, 15%, is what I just wanted to have a flavor of?
I can't predict numbers. We have never predicted that numbers. We even explained that last year was a peak season was a wash out. So I think you have to imagine the numbers a little bit yourself because it's very difficult for us to predict. And after a wash-out, if we have done 14%, so I'll leave it to you.
We have a next question from the line of Jay Doshi from Kotak.
Congratulations on a good year and Bottler of the Year award. I've got a couple of questions. The first one is a couple of years back, you called out that when Sting's salience was about 5% of volumes, it indicated that the potential can be up to 15% volume salience based on the way it has been in some other markets.
I believe that number, Sting would be now close to that number or would have crossed that number. So can you give us some more color whether now that where can it settle, what in a normalized salience of Sting for your business in India?
Well, a lot of markets. And especially the emerging markets, energy drinks are 14% to 15% of the mix. So Sting has reached, I think, 14%, 15% of our mix. That doesn't need mean the mix of the industry. So I think there is enough room for us to play. And...
Industry mix, it would be still 6%, 7%. Is that right understanding, overall energy drink today?
Yes. That's what it should be, 6%, 7%. Maybe a little lower, it could be.
And Jay, this is a ballpark figure. Impact in cost when we were at 5% and optimistically, we -- at that time, and this is because you're interested upon giving some number. And if you ask today, again, we are in a fix situation.
Because if we look at markets like Vietnam, where the mix for PepsiCo is 30%, Pakistan, I think, mix of energy drink, still maybe 25% of the -- for PepsiCo. So it all depends. Let's keep and watch and keep on doing the good -- our go-to-market improvement. We can only say this.
Understood. Sorry. So 25%, 30% is mix of Sting in PepsiCo's .
Of PepsiCo portfolio.
Of PepsiCo portfolio, you are right.
That's very helpful. Second is a bookkeeping question. You mentioned earlier that you had 400,000, 500,000 outlets every year. So the end of CY '23, what is the total reach in India and international, if you can share both?
3.5 million.
3.5 million is our reach share in India.
And international would be, if you have the number handy?
International, we don't have the exact numbers. And I would not like to comment. A lot of places, very difficult to even -- still, the whole systems are very old and very old. We don't have the exact numbers right now. There are a few markets, and the whole thing is still not, but -- next time, we'll -- if you come offline, we'll try and get you the exact details.
We have a next question from the line of Amit from Elara.
Sir, just on the juices and Gatorade part. I wanted to understand if this could be the growth drivers, would the mix would have a good effect or a better effect on the realization as well as it move forward?
Well, I think I had mentioned that value-added dairy and Tropicana and Gatorade, we have added -- we have doubled out -- we have added our production capacity by 200%, but that still will be very significant in our overall growth. And it will just add to our -- and these are high-value products, so it adds to our overall value.
But that cannot be the only reason for our growth. Our key growth will still come from energy and our CSD portfolio. It should be an additional support to the overall growth.
Sure. And sir, on the base of that 200% expansion, which year should be taken as a base from that?
It will be from this year onwards. One is already commissioned, which is Maharashtra. And the other one is Gorakhpur, which will be commissioned by March or April.
Okay. So versus CY '23, CY '24 would have a 200% higher capacity.
Yes.
Okay. And sir, just, you highlighted on some challenges, which may be there because of your particular reasons. Any impact that right now you are witnessing in the international market or India market with respect to...
No, not really. The only impact we are seeing is some of the freights have become more expensive, so the cost of raw material has gone up. And some of the shipments are getting delayed.
So we are having to overstock ourselves just for safety reasons. And those are costing some -- it is creating some cost, but nothing beyond that. So that's why we are making it very safe for ourselves and not worrying about additional inventory cost.
So that would be both for India as well as international or it will be largely stood...
To some markets. So every market is different, whichever like -- whichever comes under the Suez Canal where the products are coming, that's getting more affected. What is not coming in that is -- but the freight rates are going up for everyone.
Okay. And this would force you to take any pricing action, right?
No, no. It's not that large. Our imports are not that large. So...
Okay, okay. And sir, just, if you could give some insights on Gatorade, how has been the response since our...
the response has been very good, but Gatorade is a very small part of -- it's not even 0.5% or less than 0.5% of our category. So I think it's really not relevant right now.
It's just add-on. It's a good value item. Long term, it's a great product. And I think we'll do well with it. But just, I think our other product, which is doing extremely well, is Nimbooz, which will be a decent mix for us.
We have a next question from the line of Anand Shah from Axis Capital.
Just most of the questions have been answered. Just one, can you comment quantitatively on the growth in the international markets and within your core markets, how the share has been?
Share market, we have grown at 4%.
It's 16% in this quarter. And overall, I think, broadly in line with the India market.
Yes. But within this, how Zimbabwe, Zambia, Nepal and Sri Lanka would have grown? And did they contribute?
So overall, we've grown 16% in December, and 18% has been the year growth for the international market.
Yes. But within this, Zimbabwe would have grown how much for the full year, not quarterly for Zimbabwe?
Yes, yes. 23% for Zimbabwe.
23% for Zimbabwe.
Okay. Got it. And in international, this year, we have seen some margin correction. Normally, we have seen that margins grow in the range of 21%, 22%. We've come down to 18%, 19%. So is there any margin here? And do you expect this to now stabilize going ahead? .
The currencies are going up and down so much in the international markets. I think our overall -- what you should look at is that our overall margin of 21%, 22% is very healthy, and that's what we are overall. So one country will go down, one country will go up. Sri Lanka at 100% devaluation, now it's stabilizing. So it's very difficult to base it on each country.
Sure, sure, sure. But Congo at peak capacity, what kind of cases would it be sort of targeting?
It's too early. We are putting 2 small lines, so it's too early to say. Once we see the market developing, then we'll keep on adding.
30 million.
But we're looking at maybe about 30 million cases.
We have a next question from the line of Sumant Kumar from Motilal Oswal.
Can you talk about daily base beverages' current contribution? And going forward, what kind of growth we are looking for and which market we are growing?
Yes. Contribution daily.
Our daily -- yes, one second. Under 0.5%.
It's only 0.5% at the moment, and we hope to minimum double it or maybe even a little better than that.
In the next year?
Yes. This year, '24.
We have a next question from the line of [ Tanek Gupta ], an individual investor.
Am I audible?
Yes, yes.
Sir, I would like to know with the maintenance CapEx for the quarter ended December '23 and for the year-ended December '24.
What CapEx?
Maintenance.
Maintenance, yes.
See, Mr. Gupta, we don't capitalize it. It's a P&L item in the -- so it's charged to the PL, like earlier years from the beginning.
Okay, sir. Sir, could you do it like a percentage of the capital?
That doesn't work like that. It depends on the utilization of the machine and a lot of other things. So I think we charge 100% of our maintenance to our P&L, please.
Okay, okay. So just one more question, sir. On the dairy products availability, has the availability come from North to other areas, sir, like South and other places? Has it moved?
So that's why this year, our only plant was in North. We have just started our dairy production in West, and we will be starting in East. So we will be covering the full India region this year. That's why we expect the growth to be quite strong.
Ladies and gentlemen, we'll take that as the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you very much. I hope we have been able to answer all your questions satisfactorily. Should you need any further clarifications or would like to know more about our company, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team.
Thank you once again for your interest, support and for taking the time out to join us on this call. Look forward to interacting with you very soon. Thank you very much.
On behalf of Varun Beverages Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.