Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd

NSE:TORNTPHARM

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q4

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q4 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call of Torrent Pharma. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sudhir Menon, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director, Finance. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

[Sudhir Menon, executive]

Thank you. Good evening to all, and thank you for joining us for the fourth quarter earnings call for FY '24. We've completed quarter 4 and the year on a good note. All our businesses have performed well. U.S. has registered degrowth this quarter. U.S. should start contributing positively to the overall growth in FY '25.

In terms of financial performance highlights, revenues were INR 2,745 crores, up by 10%. Operating EBITDA for the quarter is INR 883 crores, up by 21%. Operating EBITDA margin stood at 32%. The Board of Directors have recommended a final dividend of INR 6 per equity share and the overall leverage as at 31st March 2024, now stands at 0.87x.

I'll now hand over the call to Aman for India business.

[Aman Mehta, executive]

Thanks, Sudhir. India revenue at INR 1,380 crores registered growth of 10%. As per the AIOCD secondary market data, IPM growth for the quarter stands at 9%. Torrent's chronic business grew at 14% versus the IPM growth of 12%. Growth was driven by new launches in the chronic therapies, particularly anti-diabetic, performance of top brands in our focused therapies and augmented by field force expansion in core therapy areas along with the consumer health business traction.

Shelcal-500 continues to grow robustly across all states and regions where we have invested in advertising and OTC marketing, and we continue to invest further in the other OTC brands, which are Tedibar, Ahaglow and Unienzyme due to the positive response that we've seen in the last few quarters. At the end of the quarter, Torrent has 20 brands in the top 500 of the IPM with 17 brands more than INR 100 crores sales as of March 2024, field force strength at the end of the quarter stands at 5,700.

We expect the India business to continue outperforming the market growth in the coming quarters. And our focus in the new financial year will be to improve our market share in chronic therapies for -- expand through new launches in existing therapy areas, improving fuel first productivity in the expanded divisions and regions and continue to scale up of the consumer health portfolio.

I'll now hand over to Mr. Sanjay Gupta for the international business.

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Thanks, Aman. Suppose to begin with Brazil. So for the fiscal year '23, '24, Brazil became our largest affiliate outside India with an annual revenue INR 1,126 crores. As per IQVIA, during the year, market growth in Brazil was at 10% and Torrent growth was at 14%. For '23/'24, our revenue in local currency was BRL 671 million, growing at a rate of 12%. It brings us a step closer to our goal to reach BRL 1 billion in Brazilian local currency revenues.

In Q4, constant currency revenue was BRL 222 million, registering 11% year-on-year growth. Growth is supported by the robust pricing environment, volume growth and new launch momentum. We've had a consistent pace of new launches, there were 4 in 2022, 3 in '23 and 2 in FY '24. Going forward, we intend to maintain 3 to 5 branded launches per year.

We recently obtained approval of [indiscernible], which will be our first product in the large CNS segment of ADHD. Our generics business continues to show momentum and accounted for annual sales of BRL 92 million at a growth rate of 31% over the prior year.

Moving on to Germany. Our German business has registered a full year revenue of EUR 120 million at a growth rate of 8%. For the quarter, revenue was at EUR 31 million, up by 8%. For the last 5 quarters, we have increased our overall value of wins and tenders. This trend continued during the current quarter and will lead to incremental sales starting from Q2 of '24/'25. The wins are due to cost optimization efforts which are essential to maintain our competitiveness in tenders. New product launches continue at a sustained pace in Germany. During '23/'24, we launched 8 new products with the expectation to launch between 10 to 15 products in '24/'25.

During the year, we also increased the number of sales reps in Germany and increased our pharmacy coverage from 5,000 to 8,000 pharmacies out of a total of 17,000 pharmacies in Germany. Our overall share in the German generic market is now at a 2-year high of close to 6%. In the U.S., we registered constant currency revenues of $32 million, down by 7%. Sequentially the U.S. business has delivered stable revenues backed by new contracts, which have helped mitigate the impact of several new competitors for our leading product, which is Dapsone.

To conclude, our focus will remain on deepening our presence in branded generic markets while continuing to grow in Germany and returning to profitable growth in the U.S. Darvin, we can open the call up to questions, please. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We have the first question from the line of Damayanti Kerai from HSBC.

[Damayanti Kerai, analyst]

My first question is on India business. So you ended the year at 14% growth. So how should we look at growth trajectory in FY '25 from this high base? And if you can also talk a bit about the key growth drivers in terms of price volume contribution?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

So if we look at the April external data AIOCD or IQVIA, the market growth rate is about 9%, and we think that's likely to sustain for the rest of the year. And we believe we should be well placed to grow a couple of percent, maybe 2%, 3% higher than that.

In terms of therapy areas our focus areas remain the same, improving chronic market share. In terms of growth breakup, we registered a growth of 15% in the AIOCD data in Q4. So the breakup of that is 3% volume, 8% price and 4% new products.

[Damayanti Kerai, analyst]

So this price contribution, obviously, is on higher side compared to, I guess, in the prior year. So should we assume some moderation there? Or do you think this high single-digit kind of price contribution can be sustained?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

Usually, it's been in this range quarter-to-quarter. The reflection might be slightly different, but we believe that within this range of 7% to 8% should be sustainable.

[Damayanti Kerai, analyst]

Okay. Fine. And also, if you can talk a bit more about your progress in the consumer health market in India, like where are you spending majorly in terms of growing those brands, et cetera?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

So the most visible successful impact that we've seen is in Shelcal and that's purely because of the scale of brand and the established legacy, which added with the consumer spends has given pretty good results. So we'll continue to invest more in Shelcal. Tedibar, we've kind of started in the last 6 months. And again, I mean it's a relatively smaller scale of investment that we've done, but the results are again quite positive. So we might scale up a bit more on Tedibar. Ahaglow and Unienzyme and the other 2, where we put them on a slightly lower priority, at least that was the case in the previous financial year in FY '24. FY '25, we might continue the same mix. So broadly speaking, the priority should remain the same led by Shelcal and Tedibar.

[Damayanti Kerai, analyst]

Okay. And my last question, you have planned to expand the MR team in your India business? Or do you think the current team is good enough to pursue the growth opportunities?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

We have the same plan that we mentioned in the previous quarter that we believe organic growth will require maybe annual expansion of 300 to 400 MRs every year, and that's the plan this year as well. So possibly by the end of this year, we should be about -- at about 6,000 MRs.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Neha Manpuria from Bank of America.

[Neha Manpuria, analyst]

First, Sanjay, on the Brazilian business, obviously, we have seen pretty good growth this year. I know you've mentioned in the past, you're launching more products. How should we look at growth from the current base, should we assume that the growth momentum that we've seen this year sustained going forward, the mid-teens sort of growth that continues on a constant currency basis?

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Yes. I think, Neha, that's a safe assumption. Given that in April, we saw a price increase driven by the government at about 4.5%, plus the volume growth plus new product launches and strong growth in our GT segment, we should be competitively closer to 15% than to 10%. .

[Neha Manpuria, analyst]

Okay. How many product launches are we planning in business? Sorry I missed that?

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

So here, I suffer from a [ surfed ] of riches because we have a lot of products which are filed and approved. But given that we have 3 teams and since you are selling branded generics, we'd like to ideally launch 2 products per team per year. So that would give me [indiscernible] products. So I would launch between 4 and 6 products every year with the current investment that I have.

[Neha Manpuria, analyst]

Okay. And any plans to expand this team given the growth that we are seeing in that market? Could it see more people addition to accelerate this growth?

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Not in the short run because if you recall, last year, we added an entire new CMS team with 120 sales reps. So for now we are good.

[Neha Manpuria, analyst]

Okay. My second question is on margins. Sudhir, we've been doing margin expansion year after year, you've always indicated the scope for margin expansion. Given the base we are, do you still think margin can continue to improve for Torrent going forward?

[Sudhir Menon, executive]

Yes. I think as we guide every quarter or every year, that there is a potential for the margin to improve between 50 basis points to 100 basis points, depending upon how the branded segment and generic segment perform. I think positive I see in this year, which is FY '25, is I think U.S. should contribute in a positive way, both to the top line and bottom line. So I think at this point in time, yes, and the margin expansion at least between 50 to 100 basis points, is definitely possible is what I believe.

[Neha Manpuria, analyst]

And this margin expansion that you've seen in FY '24 has come from all businesses. I mean India, of course, would have expanded, but outside India, is it fair to assume that Brazil, Germany and U.S. has also seen margin expansion?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

I would say so.

[Neha Manpuria, analyst]

Understood. And last -- sorry, one last question. Thoughts on M&A, your name keeps cropping up in quite a few deals. So -- and I also thought, obviously, the enabling approval [indiscernible]. So now that ratio is absorbent, you've sort of ramped up that acquisition. How should we think about M&A going forward?

[Sudhir Menon, executive]

So I think Neha, as far as the equity issuance resolution is concerned, it's an enabling resolution, which we take every year at INR 5,000 crores, so that we have the preparedness in case something is happening, right? But so far nothing, I mean, that resolution has not been used so far. So that's number one. I think point number 2 at this point in time, there's no proposal, which I can say, which is in the pipeline, which we have been evaluating.

[Neha Manpuria, analyst]

Okay, okay, okay. In either of your markets, India, outside India.

[Sudhir Menon, executive]

At this point in time, no.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We have the next question from the line of Tushar from Motilal Oswal.

[Tushar Manudhane, analyst]

Sir, just on Shelcal in particular, at least AIOCD number is not reflecting or maybe it's [ reflecting ] 8% to 10%. So -- is it that -- because even if it is [ AIOCD ] it will be sort of picked up from the [indiscernible].So just trying to understand why the growth is not [indiscernible].

[Aman Mehta, executive]

We have said this in the previous call that given that some part of the sales shifts to OTC stock is, they don't get reflected in the AIOCD or IQVIA panel and this is a normal phenomenon in either OTC brands or brands that have been switched. So because of that, the growth reflection wouldn't always reflect what the actual performance is like. But we can just guide you that in the internal numbers, Shelcal-500's growth for the year was in the high teens.

[Tushar Manudhane, analyst]

Understood. And the overall OTC, if you could share how much of the business and how much it is sort of [indiscernible] normal growth, but how much would be the OTC business now for [indiscernible].

[Aman Mehta, executive]

We're not looking at it separately because we have still continued some of the brands in the prescription side as well. So we haven't separated the whole OTC basket into a separate division or separate entity. We look at it still as a combined sales contribution in Rx plus OTC, it is that the spends are looked at separately. So we're investing in consumer plus the prescription spend as well.

[Tushar Manudhane, analyst]

Okay. And sir, secondly, on Germany, so there has been a good amount of tender wins that have happened over the past 9, [12 ] months. But is it safe to understand that FY '24 growth doesn't reflect the tender wins and you should be able to grow much better than FY '24 in Germany business -- FY '25?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

Can you repeat the question again, please?

[Tushar Manudhane, analyst]

This is with respect to Germany business, where we had a good number of tender wins over the past 3 to 4 quarters. But the FY '24 growth in constant currency is about 8%. So safe to assume that FY '25 will be much better than the '24 in terms of growth for Germany business?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

No better I don't know, but at least to the same level, I can tell you that with the wins that we have in high single-digit growth in Germany is a fairly safe assumption. .

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Shyam Srinivasan from Goldman Sachs. .

[Shyam Srinivasan, analyst]

Just the first one, trade generics. So how has the progress been in fiscal '24 for trade generics? And just a related question. Many of your peers have actually made a separate subsidiary of trade generics. The words that one CEO used was agility and focus. So just want to understand what's happening generally in the space in terms of trade generics and what's our strategy there?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

So I would say, overall, it's been a pretty good year for our trade generics business. I don't recall the exact number, but the growth for that segment has been upwards of 20%. So overall, it's been as per plan and profitability-wise, it's also quite -- is doing, let's say, decently when compared to what we anticipated earlier. That's because we've been focusing on brands, which have been shifted from the Rx side to the trade generic side. So there's an inherent kind of demand that's being capitalized on further.

In terms of shifting to separate entities, we don't have any plans to do so right now. I think for that, we would probably want to be at a much bigger scale than we are right now. And we had also mentioned this earlier that we don't anticipate this to be a larger segment of the overall business compared to the current scale, which is at 2.5% to 3%. And we think this high growth should continue for at least this financial year and maybe the next financial year, after which it should start tapering down.

[Shyam Srinivasan, analyst]

I mean, just on the market, just the fact that why are some of these companies attempting to do a subsidiary, it's just a scale point or you think you're seeing competitive intensity in this space [ total ]?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

That would be hard to comment on, but obviously, other companies have been looking at this space aggressively as well and which way each company has been approaching it may be different, but can't comment on why that would have happened in other companies cases.

[Shyam Srinivasan, analyst]

Yes. Sorry, and the last question on this trade generic. There was this notion that trade generics may tend to impact acute volumes more and which is why IPM volumes have been generally weaker, but what stops even chronic volumes to also be impacted by trade generics. Is there any impediment that prevents even chronic volumes to start moving towards trade generics?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

Yes. We have tried it ourselves, and we've struggled to gain any traction. So we haven't added many more products in the chronic space. There could be various reasons for that. One is generally that acute is a very short-lived prescription. So every time there is a new acute patient, there would be a new need for a new product or a new brand, and that's where your chance of that change is higher.

But overall, in the chronic space, we still believe that it's difficult to get higher share of generics. In that sense, I don't see the IPM getting impacted in the chronic space because of trade generics, we continue to believe that all the segments will have their own space. Trade generics will grow at its space, branded will grow at its space, and that's been playing out in our case, and we've been seeing that in the market numbers. And I think this year's April data at least shows as well that there isn't really any -- that kind of impact on branded volumes because of trade generics.

[Shyam Srinivasan, analyst]

Helpful. My last question is on the U.S. business. Opening remarks, I think, Sudhir, you mentioned that we are foreseeing growth in the U.S. after many years of decline. So what are the drivers of it? Is it new launches? Is it lower price erosion? And general outlook on the U.S. business in terms of the medium to longer term, how committed are we to maintain or sustain and maybe grow this business also.

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

I'll take your question. So firstly, the reason for why we anticipate growth is we expect about 8 on-time approvals this coming year. So depending upon what products get approved, we expect a positive revenue momentum. So out of the 8, the first one has already launched the 7 more, depending upon which month, et cetera, they get approved. We think they can -- at least 3, 4 of them can generate material revenues [ at this ] for us.

And in terms of U.S. business, we remain committed. We are not disproportionately committed to the U.S. business. It's one of the 4 growth drivers that we have, along with India, Germany and Brazil. But we have no plans of decreasing our commitment to the U.S. market. On the contrary, we are looking ways because our plants have been cared, except for Indrad, all other plants are cleared right now. So they all have no action indicated.

So I think -- and our pipeline and external business development efforts are ramping up. So I think over the medium term, we would anticipate a business of, say, $250 million to $300 million as new product launches come in. So we prioritize it along with our -- I mean, India is, of course, our top priority, but Brazil, Germany and the U.S. are on equal footing. So no plans to scale down.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We have the next question from the line of Harsh Bhatia from Bandhan Asset Management.

[Harsh Bhatia, analyst]

Yes. Just 2 quick ones. One, if at all, that's possible for the Brazil in terms of the constant currency growth, the 12%, 13% that we have reported in this year, is there a way to sort of split that into let's say, pricing versus volume? Or anything that's possible for us to understand how that market is progressing because the new introductions or the new product launches would be a substantial part of the growth over there, given how the market is behaving. So anything in that aspect?

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Yes, yes, one sec, I can give it to you. For Brazil in terms of price volume growth would be -- price growth would be about 4%, new product about 2%, and the rest would be volume growth.

[Harsh Bhatia, analyst]

Okay. Okay. And you mentioned on your previous comments that Brazil should possibly do sort of 14%, 15% growth, if I'm not wrong, in FY '25.

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Correct, correct.

[Harsh Bhatia, analyst]

Okay. Okay. And lastly, in terms of the margins, just to sort of better understand the [ 1500 ] bps potential. I think last quarter, you made a comment that Brazil -- operating leverage in Brazil is higher as compared to the India potential to that extent. So if you could hear it or bucketed categorically, to help us better understand that margin improvement also keeping in mind the OTC part of the India business, how important that is once it scales up to a certain level. I understand that these are already large products to that extent, and you might be adding more and more products, but I'm just trying to understand that margin movement, if at all, and that OTC is an important part or you still feel that a large part of it continues to be at the Brazil division.

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

Yes. I'll take that question. So I think from a margin improvement perspective of guidance, which we've given 50 to 100 basis points assumes all the incremental spend, which we are planning for FY '25 for the consumer health segment. So that's point number one.

I think point number two, when we say 50 to 100 basis points, it's a mix of basically price increases, which are taken across all the branded generic segments and certain amount of operating leverage which plays out both in terms of generic markets as well as the branded markets. And add to that, if the new product starts flowing in, in the U.S. that should also have a positive impact on the overall profitability. So I think combined all, we feel that 50 to 100 basis points is somewhere we should be able to demonstrate margin improvement.

[Harsh Bhatia, analyst]

So if I may, the OTC margins as such are going to be more or less stable because of the incremental investments. So that will not be a part of this overall bucketing as such or at least would be one of the last criterias because of the investment mode to that extent?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

Yes. The only problem is we are not tracking OTC margins separately because these products which we have selected for the Consumer Health segment are the ones which are there on the prescription platform as well, right? As Aman said in this call before, is that expenses is something which we keep on looking at. And the way we track is that wherever we run the programs on these brands from a consumer health segment perspective, we try and compare the growth in these regions versus the other regions where the program is not done. And there, we see positive outcomes which are visible. And therefore, we feel that the spend is becoming more effective as we go on even for FY '25. And therefore, whatever we planned in terms of incremental investment on those 4 or 5 brands, which we spoke about, after considering those incremental investment, we still feel that there's room for the margin to improve by 50 to 100 basis point.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment Managers.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Yes. Sir, a question around gross debt. Can you enumerate the gross debt number? And also how should we think of debt reduction for the coming year and thereafter?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

Yes. I think the gross debt at a consolidated level was INR 3,900 crores. And I think the way to look at it is that at least for FY '25, we should have a similar run rate in terms of repayments, what we had in FY '24, which is roughly 1,300. Maybe 1,300 to 1,500 is something which is possible. We'll see if something additional as possible based on the cash flow generation and achievement, which we have for FY '25. But that's the minimum. I think we should take into consideration.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Right. And the second question is around the tax rate. If you could guide us for the tax rates in the next couple of years as well?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

So I think for FY '25, we should be around 30%, okay? And come FY '26, we should start getting into the new tax regime. That may happen maybe a quarter, a quarter or 2 quarters in FY '26. And so therefore, FY '26, I can take a mix of 30% and 25% and should land up somewhere on a full year basis at 27% is what I feel today.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Okay. And would a softening in API prices have helped gross margin in FY '24? And if so, to what extent?

[Sudhir Menon, executive]

No, I think from our portfolio perspective, when I look at the overall COGS per pill, I don't see a major movement in terms of either the API prices going up or falling down substantially I would say. So it's a normal increase or decrease, which we see in some pockets of API purchases. But nothing significant to really say that that's one of the causes for improvement in margins.

I think the second thing what we have done is in order to become more cost efficient from a Germany portfolio perspective, there's a good amount of work which has been done in terms of reengineering certain processes and looking at alternate API, which has played out from a Germany business perspective. But I think on an overall basis, I wouldn't say it's a significant contributor.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Okay. In the current sort of chart spike in freight trade costs and transit times around Red Sea. Do you foresee any impact from that?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

So we have seen an impact coming in quarter 4. So my freight expenses have gone up by around INR 10 crores compared to quarter 3.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Okay. And does the increased transit time impact your working capital loss?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

No, not really. In fact, I think FY '24, the underlying working capital has come down from 110 days to 90 days.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Yes. Sir, final question. The OTC policy is expected to be notified fairly shortly, if I understand it correctly, how do you see this sort of leading to an evolution in the India business for Torrent, specifically and generally in the market, in terms of offering you newer distribution channels and perhaps channels with a different business economy?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

Yes. So it's unclear yet what form or final shape it would take. But any such policy is implemented, would provide an opportunity for brands which are categorizes OTC to increase their reach. So we would obviously be able to capitalize on that.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

But do you see it making or causing a mark to benefit to your India portfolio? Or you think it's a development which might on a margin hill but not push or move the needle.

[Aman Mehta, executive]

It may not move the needle that much. It will help, I mean, incrementally, but we don't see it changing that much of operational -- I mean, no significant impact, I would say.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Right. And on the U.S. pricing environment, do you foresee the next year also to be benign?

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Not too quick. It's too far away. I think it's never benign. It might be a temporary item. The buyers are always looking for selling incremental savings. So the [indiscernible].

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Punit Pujara from Helios.

[Unknown Analyst]

So out of this INR 10,700 crores revenue that you [ close ] this year, what is the share of branded generics market put together as a whole?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

Around 73%.

[Unknown Analyst]

Sure. And in the rest of the world market in the past, you have highlighted that there are [ 7 ] key markets where you have been focusing. So could you just update about the strategic outlook and the kind of growth that you are expecting in this market because I think this is a while since you spoke on these specific rest of the world markets.

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

So I think historically, this the 7 markets which you're talking about has been registering 12% to 13% growth, right? Probably last year, the growth was a little lower because of certain countries having political issues, economic crisis and so on and so forth. But I think things are now settling down, and I think the outlook for that market should be 12% to 13% growth continuing over the next 2 to 3 years.

[Unknown Analyst]

Sure. And a very quick one. What is the revenue from the rest of the market for the year?

[Sudhir Menon, executive]

So those 7 markets you're talking about, right? I mean, which is Philippines, in Malaysia, Nepal and all, right? I mean...

[Unknown Analyst]

I mean I meant for the ROW markets as a whole, which you used to report earlier as a separate line item. .

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

Right. So I think that's around 85 million, I'd say 85 million. Yes, 85 million around.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Dhawal Khut from Jefferies. .

[Dhawal Khut, analyst]

You are increasingly sounding bullish towards your U.S. business. So will that entail some increase in R&D -- what's the outlook for R&D? And out of the total R&D ballpark, how much is towards U.S.

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

I think that's a wrong impression which you've got that we are very bullish on U.S. business. I think from our perspective, we wanted to at least make U.S. business profitable, right? I mean that's the journey or objective, which we have taken over the next 2 to 3 years. And how it helps is that since the plants are cleared and there's some amount of pipeline which we see playing out over the next 2 to 3 years, what we meant is the growth momentum should start as far as the U.S. is concerned.

And within this pipeline, our approval, which is going to flow over the next 2 to 3 years, we feel there could be an opportunity to make a reasonable amount of revenues and profits in terms of those products getting approved on time. So therefore, U.S. which has been negative so far will start contributing positively to the overall top line and bottom line. For example, if you look at quarter 4, our overall growth is 10% ex of U.S., the growth is around 12%.

So at least the U.S., which has been contributing negatively, at least from FY '25 we should see a positive momentum and therefore, a better growth on an overall basis. So that's something which we were trying to convey.

[Dhawal Khut, analyst]

Okay. And on India business, top players, large players in India, they are increasingly moving towards differentiated product like launching in-licensed patented product, launching biosimilars. So can you subjectively give some initiatives that we are taking? And what's in our pipeline in terms of differentiated products, these products which can stand out in the Indian market?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

I mean most of the business is driven with the patent expiration pipeline where we have been in the top 3 ranks in almost every launch in the last 2 years. And that's been really our focus on maximizing market share. In terms of differentiated products, we have also been looking at licensing in last 1 year, we've had 2 deals, both in the chronic space, both are doing quite well.

We continue to look at more licensing deals and should hope to close at least one in the next coming quarters. So our focus remains the same that the biggest kind of growth initiative is to maximize market share in the patent expiration launches, and they should be aided by these licensing deals or licensed products.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment Managers.

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Sir, for the U.S. business, is it possible to sort of help us understand like what sales run rate do you foresee turning around? And secondly, at optimal levels, what sort of margin when you get optimal profitability, what sort of margin swing on an overall basis, it can -- I mean it can contribute to?

[Sudhir Mehta, executive]

Gagan, I think at this point in time, the U.S. business is very small for us, right? I mean, so all the efforts are being made to see that at least the base starts increasing. So at this point in time, if you ask me all these questions, it's very difficult for us to really tell you at what point it will be profitable, what is the margin we are aiming at. I think the immediate objective over the next 2 to 3 years is to see I think post all the expenses, we get into a positive zone as far as U.S. is concerned. Now that can happen in 2 years, it can happen in 3 years.

Maybe at some point where we see positive momentum happening for the U.S. That would be the right time to talk about those aspirations and when and what margin profile we are looking at based on the pipeline which we are developing. .

[Gagan Thareja, analyst]

Okay. And you indicated that over the medium term, you aspire to go to USD 250 million to USD 300 million. When you say medium term, is it possible to enumerate it? I mean what's the time line for this?

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Sure. I mean a lot depends upon new launches, right? So in my mind is we're talking about 3 to 5 years time.

[Operator]

The next question is from the line of [ Dinesh Pathak ] from [indiscernible].

[Unknown Analyst]

This new OTC policy whichever form or shape, it is currently, I'm sure you have been consulted and giving your feedback. So if you can just share like what are the key salient points or features that are expected to -- or are being discussed in this OTC policy?

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

I think it's out in the public domain. So I think whatever has been the intention is to ensure that OTC brands firstly, are safe and only the safe products and safe brands are available for patients or consumers without a prescription. Then the other is obviously how can these products reach as many patients or consumers as much as possible.

And I mean, looking at in the other markets that we operate, there are other channels that usually are involved in OTC which are a non-chemist, but I mean, in our case, the brands that we're looking at doesn't -- they don't really need that additional push because they're predominantly in the chemist channel. So in our case, while we are optimistic that the OTC policy should be beneficial for us and the overall industry as well, it should be an incremental impact and not a significant change.

[Unknown Analyst]

And in our current India portfolio, what is it that we Shelcal is OTC or Shelcal is non-OTC.

[Aman Mehta, executive]

So we classify our consumer brands, which are 4 of them. So Shelcal being one, Tedibar being another, Ahaglow and Unienzyme, these 4 .

[Unknown Analyst]

And these would make up 1% of the India revenue?

[Aman Mehta, executive]

It's how much the Shelcal plus Tedibar plus roughly about what -- we don't have an exact number, but maybe 10% to 15%, so between that, I would say.

[Unknown Analyst]

Okay. So based on what you just explained about the policy doesn't seem to be like anything meaningful, either positive or negative for at least our portfolio in a way, right? Because you're already promoting it through whatever base, and it explained, I, at least didn't get the impression that it is positive or negative [indiscernible].

[Aman Mehta, executive]

It's hard to say. We'll have to wait for the policy to be finally -- I mean, in its finance form, whatever the benefits are, we'll have to take a look. But as of now, it's hard to comment on how to quantify the impact.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, we have no further questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Sanjay Gupta, Executive Director of International Business for the closing comments. Over to you, sir.

[Sanjay Gupta, executive]

Thank you, Darvin. To conclude, I'd just like to say that we continue with our business focus on deepening our presence in the branded generic market as well as continuing to grow in Germany and trying to return to profitable growth in the U.S. Thank you for your interest and your participation in the call today. Bye.

[Operator]

Thank you. On behalf of Torrent Pharma Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.