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Titan Company Ltd
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Titan Company Limited Q3 FY '23 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.I now hand the conference over to Mr. C. K. Venkataraman, Managing Director, Titan Company Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you very much. Welcome to the quarter 3 earnings call of Titan Company to everyone on the call. As you would have seen from the presentation on the retail sales growth for the quarter has been very satisfying and across all businesses. And the rest of the material is there on the presentation and I presume you have had some chance to look at it and we can straightaway dive into the questions.
[Operator Instructions] We have a first question from the line of Avi Mehta from Macquarie.
Just wanted to -- first of all, congratulations on the performance. Wanted to understand the demand trends, how have they been shaping up in January? And in particular, if you could give us some understanding of the jewellery business, given the sharp price -- sharp increase in gold prices?
Ajoy here. Yes, Jan has been quite interesting as gold prices have been shooting up since December and in Jan as well. But having said that, we are seeing a very good demand in Jan. We are very happy. We know that last year, Jan was impacted by Omicron and therefore, it was a weaker Jan month. But despite that, we are seeing a very, very healthy growth in jewellery, including gold jewellery and both despite the gold price rise. So we are quite happy and gung-ho.
Would you say this is on a 3-year CAGR basis that you're looking at as in pre-COVID just to -- because obviously, Y-o-Y base growth rates might be, as you rightly alluded there's Omicron in the base. So even on the 3-year trajectory it's broadly in line with what we saw in third quarter.
Yes. No, no, it's good. It's very good. Over the 3 years, CAGR, it's even better.
Okay. And on the other segments as well, if it's possible to share, especially in the watches and the eyewear?
Yes. So this is [ Parnami ]. Watches also -- watches and wearables, we've seen a good Jan. And like Ajoy mentioned, this is not only on last year's retail as on the Jan 2020. So quite happy with the retail growth.
Some from eyecare. We had a good month. I mean last year, this is -- growth is about 40%. And if I look at FY '20 January, it is 37%. So [indiscernible].
Okay. Perfect. The second bit also on the margins, especially on the watch side. I mean, last quarter, you had indicated that in the near term, we will -- we see a 13% to 14% margin kind of panning out in the watch business. Just wanted to kind of clarify, was this more the annual expectation or was this -- and whether this quarter or with this quarter kind of changes that expectation in any manner?
No. This quarter, the margin is lower because of some product channel and category mix issues. But if you see the YTD margins, it is in that ballpark of about 15% and our outlook remains in that range.
Okay. Perfect. Just one clarification, Ajoy. When you say good, is there any range that you could share with us? Any understanding of what we mean by good it would be useful to appreciate. That's all from my side.
I wish I could, but I think there are some pretty stringent regulations on what we can share without having put it out on the stock exchange, no. So apologies for that, but we are very happy is the best...
We have our next question from the line of Percy Panthaki from IIFL.
Just wanted to ask on margins. So we've done around 13% in jewellery this quarter. For next year, would you stick to that guidance of 12% to 13%? Or do you actually think that it's probably going to be sort of at the higher end of that band or might even exceed it?
So Ashok here. I think we have been answering this question quite consistently, but it will be 12% to 13% which business is targeting. Higher and lower commenting for next year is too premature, but that's the channel where definitely team is trying to keep it while achieving growth centers, which are industry-leading.
Right, sir. Secondly, just wanted to understand, you did mention that despite gold price going up, the demand is good. So what is really driving that? Because in the past, we have seen that when gold prices are sort of volatile, the customer stays back and does not purchase. So why is it different this time around?
Yes. Actually, it's something which we've been trying to figure out. In the month of November -- mid-November or December onwards, we saw a greater impact of that volatility on customer sentiment for gold jewellery. That time, the studded piece picked up a bit and therefore, we were able to see some good growth. But having said that, in the month of Jan, somehow that has not held back customers. My own hypothesis is that people might have been deferring their purchases in November, December because of this volatility.But come Jan, the outlook also looks like gold may continue to remain high, and it might even climb higher. So -- and there is weddings, et cetera. So therefore, I think people are now kind of decided to get into the market, having waited a little bit in December. But that's a personal hypothesis, I really don't have a deep database insight on this.
Right. And for the quarter Q3, basically, can you give some color on basically the split up of SSSG between how much of it is due to higher transactions and how much of it is due to a higher bill value? I mean even if you can't give the exact numbers, any flavor would also help.
Sure, sure, sure. So happy to share with you same-store growth. I think that 15-odd percent of retail growth, which includes Tanishq Mia Zoya, okay? The Tanishq retail growth is 14% as in the presentation. But if I look at the 3 brands put together, it's around 15.1%. And the same-store growth during quarter 3 is around 9%. In terms of what has driven growth, very interestingly, a majority of the growth has been driven through buyer growth. And some part of it is through ticket size growth.And ticket size growth is a function of both the gold price as well as the diamond prices have been on the higher end. So -- but yes, very happy to hear that -- from our side that it is growth which has been driven by buyers. And specifically, we have gained a little bit more on new buyers.
We have a next question from the line of Arnab Mitra from Goldman Sachs.
My first question was again on the demand side. I think last quarter, you had mentioned that there was some slowdown in the lower end of your portfolio in jewellery. Has that been a trend which has continued and anything that concerns you on that side?
It's a mixed bag. There is some pluses and minuses, which we are seeing in quarter 3. Yes, on the lower price and on studded, there was a little bit of slowing down. But on the gold, it was on the positive. It was not slowing down. It seems to show upswing, maybe driven by festive. But in Jan, again, I'm seeing that that is no longer a concern. It's kind of come back strongly. So it's a bit volatile at this stage.We are at least pushing more aggressively on trying to increase the number of buyers and therefore, feed the top of the funnel in terms of buyer and new customer acquisition and that's working. So right now not a concern, but yes, it's on the -- we are watching out for it more closely.
Got it. And there were some news reports that there have been times anecdotally where gold prices have gone at a bigger discount in the local market. Are you seeing more pressure on gold prices from local jewelers compared to what you were seeing last few quarters because of possibly the import duty having -- gap having increased to segments there?
So yes, I think gold rate and therefore, price competitive intensity in quarter 3 in general was very high, national jewelers, local jewelers, everybody put together. And to that extent -- and I don't know this phenomena of the market being at the discount vis-a-vis MCX is more in the last few weeks in the month of Jan, more than in the month of December and November. So -- but because of that as the gold rate intensity in terms of competitiveness gone up in Jan, I think it's pretty much the way it was in quarter 3. But yes, if it continues like this, there is always going to be pressure because finally, there is a lot of unaccounted gold coming into the country and there is a 15% plus kind of -- 15% CD. And then if you add GST it's 18%, arbitrage.
Got it. And just one bookkeeping question to Ashok. Is there a increase in gold leasing costs because of global interstates moving up, given that these probably are linked to gold cycles?
So Titan, it is minimum so far. We have not seen impact 15, 20 basis points, but not more than that so far.
We have our next question from the line of Siddhant Dand from Goodwill.
My question was regarding [ Deal ]. After all this time, continues to be 1% of revenue still be loss-making. So is there some long-term vision over that company? Or is it is going to be elected
So Deal has 2 distinct businesses. One part of business is continuing to do very, very well. The other part of business, which is automation solution has certain icon, certain cost of demand and which kind of came under something. But if you look at, we are pretty much okay that a full year basis, they would still be profitable. And the order inflow situation, if you have read about that, that business which kind of struggled from the profit point of view this quarter actually won the highest amount of order in this quarter. So future outlook is clear and stable. They will kind of pick up from here and hopefully deliver reasonable profitability. I'm not concerned about that...
Yes, but like we're concerned something smaller piece of the pie and then it's a distraction overall. That's the only concern.
Siddhant, actually, it's not a distraction because the manner in which Titan Company operates, both within the stand-alone and mix subsidiaries is a full leadership team dedicated to running each vertical. So there is no real distraction at all and there is a board which governs the Deal company as well. And if you look at FY '18, FY '19, FY '20 performances, really good. And we must recognize that this is a global company dependent on the airline industry and therefore, in the last 2 years, a substantial churn happening, some travel and all that. So intrinsically, everything is good for this company and for both divisions as well. The last 9 months were not good for automation solutions like Ashok shared, but we are quite convinced about it and committed.
Okay. That's perfect. Could you share some numbers or something about the [ UA ] business because it has been there for a while now? Is this profitable or what is the top line like over there?
This is [ Diny ] here from the international business. UAE, the -- we're up to 6 stores across UAE, 5 in Dubai and the seventh stores -- and the sixth store in Abu Dhabi. That business, all of the stores that we have launched are doing quite well and growing quite strongly. We are pretty much on track for whatever stores that we have launched. We have had some difficulties in terms of rolling out or expanding the stores. They're a little slower than what we had planned because what we realized is operating in some of these new markets requires a bit of time. And that is what we are attempting to stabilize.
Is it profitable or no?
Not as yet.
Not. Okay. My last question would be, any thoughts on the [ lab-based ] diamonds of the incentives that were announced yesterday or is it too soon to think on that part?
Just repeat the question?
On lab-based diamonds, yesterday in the Finance Minister -- or even the Prime Minister announced some incentives around lab-based diamonds. Any thoughts on entering that business?
Actually, you will remember that we invested the investments about 7, 8 months back in an American company called [ Great Sites ] which has a brand called [ Dream Origin ] and that is for us to understand the most exciting market for LGDs in the world, which is the U.S. So we already developed some kind of an understanding. We are not in a position at the moment to share any other plans to anyone.
Okay. Last question would be what's the outsourcing mix in jewellery because the competitor ideally they outsource most of their jewellery. So margin that we can gain by manufacturing or sales or something like that?
So it varies between gold jewellery and studded. At an overall level -- so because a lot of the gold jewellery is outsourced and a lot of the studded we make in-house, I think it's about 70% will be outsourced, rough and ready.
Also, nobody really makes gold jewellery concepts, not even other jewelers in the country that makes sense. And there is so much of innovation that the lender partners bring to the table. And therefore, between margin on the one hand and innovation and therefore, sales growth there's a balanced approach that we have taken for a very long time.
We have our next question from the line of Shirish Pardeshi from Centrum Broking.
And hearty congratulations to Venkat from the New Jersey store is operational. I'm sure you would have...
I'm sorry, can you use your handset, please?
Yes, I'm on the handset...
Can you speak louder?
Yes, I said hearty congratulations to Venkat for finally the New Jersey store is operational. I'm sure you would have gone through the pain. But just one commentary, over the next 12 months or 15 months, what kind of store expansion which we'll see in the U.S. geography?
So [ Denise ] here, Shirish, again. After having opened the first store, we are looking at adding more stores. So over the next 6 to 12 months, we should see ourselves in the U.S. expanding across another 4 or so locations. We are going after the cities which have significant Indian populations, which is what makes sense for us. And similarly across the GCC, we have fairly aggressive plans. Having established ourselves quite well in the UAE, we are looking at the other GCC countries that are Oman, Saudi is possible.
So you mean to say that over the next 12 to 13 months, we should move from 7, 8 stores to maybe doubling or tripling that count?
Hopefully, more than that, we intend is to get as high as 20.
Okay. Yes. My second question is on jewellery business to Ajoy. Can you share some numbers? What is the grammage growth out of that 11.2% what you have reported? And maybe new buyer growth number I missed.
Grammage growth actually will not be relevant because we don't use that in any of our modeling growth, whether in top line buildup. But in terms of buyer growth, as I said, we had a higher buyer growth than ticket size growth. That was the bigger chunk. And within that, what I can tell you is that our new buyer contribution is 49%. It was 48% in the last quarter, is 49% in quarter 3.
So similar number -- so Shirish, just one perspective. We are a accessory company, we are not a commodity company and therefore, while of course, we know how many tonnes we bottom sold, that's not a KPI for us.
I do understand, Venkat. The only question...
Volume -- I understand. No, I'm just giving you a perspective. There is a number of customers, number of bills, that is what...
So buyer growths are very healthy and grammage growth, we don't really use as a PPA. And new buyer growth was marginally higher than the overall buyer growth. Therefore, we are now at 49% new buyer contribution to the total for quarter 3.
Okay. That's exactly which I wanted to understand from you, Ajoy. You mentioned that January despite the gold prices are up, you are seeing that. So the question here is that the similar growth is seen in January because I thought that because the winter was delayed, I think there is some spillover which would have definitely happened. And the festive season is also some spillover, which has happened, at least the trade is saying.So maybe the competition is one angle, but the buyer growth which is coming back to the trusted players is one of the things which is at least the trade is saying. So just wanted to understand your take on January with the same buyer growth, what you've said, 49% contribution is continued or it's come down?
I don't have the contribution figure for Jan on new versus repeat and how it was even last year. But overall buyer growth in Jan has continued to be very healthy is what I can say. And even after you discount for a weaker Jan last year. New to repeat, I don't have a Jan data readily available and we'll analyze it for the quarter, not -- it doesn't make sense to see it only Jan because there's activation and therefore, in activation, there are some skews that happen, et cetera.
Okay. Wonderful. My second question is on watches to Suparna. If you can break that 811, what is the core watches and the new introduction, which has happened over last 2 to 3 quarters? So basically, if you can say that the core business, watches and wearables and the new product contribution, which has happened.
So is the question how much is wearables as a percentage? Or is the question how much percentage of total turnover is from new product introduction?
So when we met last time about 2 to 3 quarters before, then you showcased a lot of new products. So I'm more interested on a 9 month if I look at this number, what is the contribution of the new products which has happened?
Contribution of new product is about 20% to 22%. So -- which is quite healthy. And now we are seeing that new product contribution is across all channels. Typically, new product contribution high in retail channels -- but now we are seeing that even in multi-brand outlets, new product contribution is actually around more than 20%. So that's really where the pipeline -- the power of the pipeline of new products have kicked in and given us growth.
Okay. Understood. And my last question on the emerging business. I think finally, we have women's segment accessories, which is back. I can see that and you have introduced very good models and lady products. So any color, any number? What are we doing? What are -- where we have reached and what is the distribution we have done and maybe if number, if you can quantify?
This is Manish. So you're talking about the [ Earth ], [indiscernible] we have 2 brands, Earth and Fastrack. So Earth is what we've launched in October. So currently, it's available on Shoppers Stop, [ Nica ], [ Tarsnick ] and Myntra. And we have about 25% coverage of Shoppers Stop, so like 27, 28 stores. And the response has been really very, very good in the last 60 days. So we're trying to expand in the future across various go-to markets and we are getting their response right now.
So is it, Manish, the strategy is that we will try and look at the large format stores firstly and then maybe try the e-commerce space and then maybe get into retail? Maybe I'm looking for the strategy over the next 12 to 15 months.
So basically we want to be present in departments [indiscernible], as we said. Online, we're already there on the vertical fashion portals like Myntra, [ My Cart ], [indiscernible], these kind of portals. And we also want to be in the retail network as well. So we'll also have recharged the store in the quarter 1.
So I got that. I think what I'm referring that in the discussion when we came and met Venkat and team, there is a strong vision over the next 5 years. But for -- from the modeling purpose, maybe another 15, 20 months, 1 year or 2 years, what kind of revenue this business will drive? That's what I'm looking for your help.
Like the FY '27 target, you are aware, I think in that --
I know for sure.
-- this we want to take to INR 1,000 crore. And I think business is pretty confident and can grow. And preparing themselves, this is very, very initial phase and preparing themselves to reach to that. Next year, while there are internal targets, but I don't think we are willing to share at this point.
But keeping an eye on FY '27, the internal preparation and targets have been moved
Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to answer queries from all participants, [Technical Difficulty] restrict your questions to 2 at a time. We have our next question from the line of Nihal Mahesh Jham from Nuvama Wealth Management Limited, Research Division.
And congratulations on a strong performance. My first question was on the jewellery business. If I look at your growth in the festive period, which you highlighted was 17%, 19%, is it fair to say that November, December saw muted performance and then we've seen an uptick again in January? Has that been the trajectory over the last few months?
In a simplified form, perhaps you can come to that conclusion. But the answer is a little more complex because the like-to-like period of 35 days this year, last year, this year included last week of September and so on and so forth. So actually, the growth can't be derived in an additive form, the weighted average or whatever. But somehow when you look at the entire quarter, that is the reality of this year versus last year. So it is true that our festive period growth was around that 17%, 18%. But it's also true that the quarter 3 figure turns out to be around 15.1%.
December itself was pretty close to the quarter average?
Yes. And December was close to the quarter average and Jan is continuing at -- as somebody asked, the CAGR of Jan -- 3-year CAGR of Jan is, in fact, better than the 3-year CAGR of quarter 3.
Understood. This is helpful. The second question was on the jewellery margin. I know it is in doing, but just to be reconstruct it versus last year on a higher revenue days and similar studded, there has been a Y-o-Y contraction. Just to understand, we look at because of the store addition or the contribution from the international business or any other aspect you could just help highlight?
So a couple of things. One is we knew that the market is volatile and choppy and therefore, when the going is good and customers in the market, we said we will go aggressively after growth. And if that meant that we needed to invest in growth by way of competitive offers by way of higher marketing investments and overall, in general, a higher growth-oriented approach to the market, we have gone ahead and done that.Further, for the quarter, we've also actually ramped up some investments in digital and talent, et cetera, that has also contributed to some extent. So some of these things have possibly shown a slightly downward sense on the EBIT as you are gauging. But having said that, we had always maintained that it is better to look at 12% to 13% range, and it's pretty much in that range. Compared to last year, it looks a little lower, but then last year also had some significant one-offs, which we had mentioned in the earnings call as well.
Absolutely. Just one final question, if I may, that this quarter, actually it's significantly different between the [ UCP ] and our reported sales in January. Any specific reason you be stocking to be in 3 channel in the Q3 quarter?
Yes. So actually if I just look at UCP to UCP, it's a 15% growth for all our brands for the quarter. But when you look at primary, it may look like a 10%, 11% growth -- 10% growth in the domestic business. So the difference is entirely due to the timing of stocking, downstocking of LC channel between quarter 2 and quarter 3.
We have our next question from the line of Sheela Rathi from Morgan Stanley.
And congrats on a great set of numbers, especially when I look at the World Gold Council data for the quarter, it suggests that jewellery demand was down 18%. So in that context, the growth has been very strong. I just wanted to understand and just picking up from the presentation itself that the company is pursuing market share growth through high visibility marketing, inventory infusion and competitive offers. So I just wanted to understand what exactly are we doing that has resulted in such stellar performance versus the industry?
Quite a few things actually. There has been expansion of existing retail stores as a program, which has been on for some time which is as big as the new store additions itself for the year. So that has helped inventory infusion and specifically in markets where we are low in market share and the opportunity is high, some south markets, some east markets, et cetera. And even in some of the mega stores, we have a bunch of large stores, which we are pursuing more aggressive growth since we've infused inventory there as well.We have also done a lot more work on the high-value side, both on studded, solitaire as well as on Polkis and that has also given us very good traction. And a lot of theme design collection launches during the quarter, whether it is [ Alaika ] for the rest of the country or [ Cura ] for Tamil Nadu and several other introductions, [ Calami Joy ], which was in December. All of that design collections have also played a very big role. So a combination of many things, very difficult.And we've also seen very good traction on gold exchange program and Golden Harvest enrollments. So we are now back to pre-COVID levels kind of contributions for these 2 growth engines results. So pretty much most of the growth engines are firing very well.
So just a follow-up here, and sorry if I'm wrong in terms of my understanding if I'm wrong, you said that south and east have done well. So probably that would have helped you with respect to the growth. But with respect to the market share gains, is it any particular market where we are gaining market share? Is it the large city Tier 1 cities or something of that sort?
So across regions, I would say -- so I didn't say south and east have done well. I said we have launched specific collections in those areas. East has been a little muted as it has been for the rest of the market as well, perhaps driven by some amount of rural demand still kind of catching up. But this year, metros have done particularly well. And I would say we have gained share certainly in the south, certainly across metros, most definitely across certain markets of the west. In east, I think, might be we have sustained our market share, but the east overall has been a little more muted this year.
Understood. Just one more final question I have is what was the share of wedding demand this quarter? And also in the presentation, you mentioned that high value share has gone up in the overall pie. So if you could just give us some quantitative number there? And is it to do with wedding demand or anything else?
High-value studded has gained a percentage point from auditors and it is now, as I said, pretty much as it was pre-COVID level. So high-value studded has done well. Solitaires have done well. Wedding specifically has been a little more muted in the quarter. I am personally expecting it to become better in quarter 4 and perhaps some of that is showing up in Jan. But wedding has been a percentage point lower in terms of contribution. So we are at around 19% as opposed to the 20% that we were last year.
We have our next question from the line of Nillai Shah from Moon Capital.
Okay. So the question essentially is on the demand again. Ajoy, you were [indiscernible] the actual numbers for January. But can you benchmark sort of medium-term growth targets that you have, are they in line with those numbers? And essentially, over the past few quarters, you have been getting some of these numbers. So even last quarter, you spoke about 17% to 19% growth festive [indiscernible].So given that we are in this uncertain environment, can you be little more precise in terms of what the gram growth was? Or if you don't want to give numbers, just the benchmarking versus the 20% that we've spoken about in the past?
They are certainly better than what have been there if I look at the CAGR over 3 years because it is difficult to conclude on Jan purely on a year-to-year basis because of last year being -- so when I look at the CAGR, as I said, it is certainly better than the 3-year CAGR of Q3. And therefore, is it in line with what we are hoping to grow going forward? Certainly, yes. I would hope it's even better as we go forward into the quarter. So actually, it's pretty positive. We are absolutely happy with Jan.
Perfect. That is very clear. The next question is on the margins in the jewellery business. Now I know that we kind of down at about 13% margins. But if I think out the next 2, 3 years, given the way we are growing, because the 20% growth rate that is sustained, how do we think about the operating leverage slowing down into the margin line for the jewellery business?
It's a good question. We are also trying to put our heads together on this for an upcoming Board meeting in which we are going to discuss the next 4 years. And it's ultimately a conversation around growth, profitability and ROCE and how do we prioritize these 3 different metrics. Sorry to confuse you in some ways on that front, but it is a function of what choices we make. And so I'll leave it kind of...
To add on this, like why the new plan that market is always very dynamic where you need to respond almost on week and month and quarterly basis. So whatever you may have planned and it looks like that this kind of operating business should be coming in, actual may be slightly different than that. Your question on logics is right, as we are growing at the pace we are doing, there should be some amount of operating business coming in. And we should have a positive bias towards improving margin. But as I told you, market is very, very sometimes dynamic and -- so that's where I think you would rather -- so we will place as we go. We are mindful that we -- deliver that.
I should not -- I'm not talking about the next 1 or 2 sort [indiscernible]. Your credit as a basis to say that if we are able to get this 20% growth, we'd be very disappointed if the margins don't expand. So over the medium term, would you still hold the same view that if you are able to grow at this rate and the market remains relatively buoyant, you'd be disappointed if you don't get the operating leverage coming down to the [indiscernible]?
Yes. So the point is that, that is what I'm trying to explain you -- Ajoy tried to explain you that we need to make certain choices. You are right that market competitive intensity and our kind of investments would decide that actually. But we have been maintaining that in the next 12 to 18 months, we want to deliver growth at 12% to 13% EBIT margin back. And that is state and that's the 12 to 18 months.
Nillai, party to the predecessor comment, let me just put a perspective here. Finally, the sales growth coming at the sale gross margin levels in a business helps you deliver expanded EBIT margins and the competitive situation in 2017 and 2018 was of a revenue, the competitive situation on the jewellery industry in 2022 predictably is at a much higher, more intense level.And therefore, the same sales growth may well come at a gross margin value. So that is the dynamic situation that Ajoy was referring to. And therefore, if that happens, and the same leverage, which was possible which [ Subu ] stated in that manner is not only possible today and for us to state it with that much of clarity and certainty.
We have our next question from the line of Manish Poddar from Motilal Oswal AMC.
So just 2 questions. One is, if I look at the presentation, I think there has been a 1% market share improvement from the previous quarter. So I believe this you mainly do when you do some market study. So would you like to highlight any other data point or any other analysis which came out from the datacenter?
Yes. Actually, it's an internal estimate. We are -- because when we were looking at the deck, it looked like we had not reviewed that number. Last year's number looked like a 6% share based on an estimate of about INR 400,000 crores. There are multiple views between INR 380 crores to INR 430 crores. Our internal estimate is about INR 400,000 crores last year's jewellery market size overall and we were around 6%.It looks like if I look at the trailing 12 months, we are 6.8% based on our internal estimates, again. We keep doing this constantly and a competitive assessment month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter. So it's not a 1 quarter phenomena that you should read into. I think it's more like taking the last previous 12 months and likely to be this fiscal kind of number, we may creep up towards 7% from 6.8% or whatever. A lot depends on the next few months as well.
So would you have also done any, let's say, size and dice, let's say, for weighted market share or a stranded market share? And any sort of analysis on that front?
No, not really. It's not easy because the industry quotes a lot of figures when it comes to hedging. They keep claiming 60%. And frankly, I've not been able to figure out how do they get 60%, which is tough and how they calculate it. And on studded certainly our share is higher. On high-value studded, it is certainly lower. Yes, we have some estimates, but I think we would not share a segmented kind of market share because it's all heavy internal estimates and you would rather qualitative, yes.
But just a second question then, would you be able to help me understand what is the pricing inflation which you're seeing in diamond prices?
What is the pricing?
Inflation in diamond prices. Because if I look at wrap-up prices, they are roughly about 35% to 40%. So I'm just trying to understand what is the sort of inflation which you have at this
So our estimate is around 14%, 15%, but this is a mix between solitaire and small. Small have gone up and have not come down and they remain higher, so small could be 20% higher. Solitaire went up and then they have corrected back down. And -- but they're still a little bit higher. So the average between the 2, I would say, is around 15%. A lot depends on your buying efficiency as well as when you bought it. We did take some calls on diamonds pretty early on in broadband mining. So therefore, that's the number we are seeing.
But it's for this quarter, this is the 9 months? Could you give the 9-month number at?
This is as it stands for the quarter, but it is a effect of the input cost will be based on what we bought over 9 months, actually. This is cost of goods sold, if at all you want to look at it from that angle in this period, I would think it's about 15% rough and ready.
We have our next question from the line of Aditya Gudibande from Piper Serica Advisors.
I have 2 questions regarding the watches and wearables segment. What kind of contribution does the smart watches bring to the revenue of the watch and wearables segment?
Sir, right now for this quarter, it was 10% of the total sales was from there.
I see. And what kind of growth do you expect in this segment? And what is the strategy for the company to compete with other pure tech competitors in this space?
Sir, we are looking at triple-digit growth numbers in this segment because the opportunity is huge. The smart watch market in India has exploded in the last 18 months and fueled by a lot of new product introductions and a lot of tech features from all the competitors. Our strategy at a broad level is to play with our 2 brands, Fastrack and Titan at -- with the best features and enhanced with better design and our own our own tech team that actually puts together the apps and the experience. Going forward, the strategy will involve customer proposition that go beyond the mere device play that is currently going on in full swing.
[Technical Difficulty].
I'm sorry, you were not audible, sir. Can you repeat
I said thank you very much. That was insightful.
We have our next question from the line of Vishal Gutka from PhillipCapital.
I have just 2 questions. First is what is contribution of gold exchange during this quarter? And has it gone up because the gold rates have been going up, generally, what we have seen in the past that contribution of gold exchange keeps on moving up in the month of Jan, have you seen that? And then gold exchange on similar margins or margins are a bit different versus a normal business?
The gold exchange contribution is up this quarter over last year same quarter. It's around 30%. It has gone up in the quarter also partly because we have driven some aggressive gold exchange-related offers in the market, which is part of the investment I spoke about, especially given the fact that we saw gold prices going up. And we are continuing that this, at least the next couple of months, Jan has been part of that. So yes, that has contributed to the growth.And you are right, the cost economics -- unit economics are different for gold exchange. If we get a certain quantum of upsell, people come in with X grams and they buy X or Y gram. When we sell at a certain level, it breaks even. And so far, so good. We are seeing that. It has some impact on capital because you're buying on spot and sort of -- but otherwise, yes, we are happy. And you are right, when gold prices go up, there is a tendency and we have also pushed for that.
Got it. Sir, my second question on gold-coated silver jewellery, our ground tech suggests that a lot of jewelers have started gold-coated silver jewellery. I just wanted to hear your thoughts on this segment. Are you into the segment or not in the segment? And what is your thought with respect to entering the segment?
No, we are not really into this segment, and I don't think we will be in that segment. In Tanishq, the brand, I think it's better that we stick to what is authentic and direct. If it's gold, it's gold and it's not gold-plated silver. Yes, there is an opportunity. A lot of dealers do that. Price points are low, but we are not operating in that segment. I don't have a comment on the size of that market.
Got it. And then my last question on franchise expansion, even the gold prices are going up. So the working capital requirement for L3 kind of franchisees goes up in a significant manner. So do -- are we expected to see a bit lower through addition with regards to franchisee expansion happening in the upcoming 12 to 18 months? L1, L2 can continue, but L3 format, it could slow down a bit.
Actually, not really because ultimately, even the sales is a function of the gold price. So no, not -- it's not a big deal. I mean there are enough and more franchisees very, very keen to open up Tanishq. In fact, L3 sometimes more than L2 because the margins are sweeter. So no, no issues on that. And we see a lot of opportunity out there for franchisees who are wanting to come in L2 or L3.
We have our next question from the line of Sabyasachi Mukerji from Centrum PMS.
I have 2 questions. First, can you comment on the reason behind the gross margin decline?
Gross margin at company level, you're talking about any particular business? I think -- I think we spoke at great length in the beginning of the call about jewellery segment margin performance in this quarter. And that being the dominant business, it reflects at the company level. And in this quarter, we talked about the -- our pricing growth in offers, et cetera. And we also talked about that in last quarter 3, there was a one-off 1% thing.So you need to make comparison accordingly. And some of the benefits which we are sitting in earlier quarters also like diamond pricing gains, the kind of significance which was there in quarter 2 was custom duty. We are also tapering off quite substantially in this quarter.
Okay. Understood. Second question, I wanted to understand a bit more on the like-for-like, like-to-like growth of 9%. So if I were to break it down between, let's say, the sales is basically a product of the average unit price of a jewellery and the number of items or articles sold. Now if I look at the gold price movement, it is approximately 9% up year-on-year. In your presentation that is mentioned. Then comes to your comment on that that the buyer growth has mostly delivered this 9% growth. So is it fair to conclude that the buyer growth was there, but then the average item bought by a particular buyer had fallen this quarter? Is it a correct assessment?
No, let me clarify. At the overall 15% growth, the larger contributor is buyer growth. But when you come to same-store growth of 9%, I don't have an exact fix, but I think both ticket size and buyer growth are there. Now normally, when the gold prices go up, let's say, in this case, 9% or 10%, the ticket size does not go up in the same proportion. People do adjust the -- because they have a certain budget. So they do adjust grams that they purchase, may not be units, may be units, may be grammage depending on whatever works. We operate with a certain budget. And therefore, in that sense, we don't -- so there is buyer growth and there is ticket size growth, but the ticket size growth may not be exactly equal to the gold rate increase.
And between these 2, the buyer growth and the ticket size growth, out of the total 9%, is it evenly poised, evenly split between 2 or there is a scheme in one of these 2?
It's good. Both are good. I wouldn't be able to go further on that. Let's say, it's a mix of both. It's not one or the other.
And any guidance on this same-store growth for the medium- to long-term that you do call out?
In what? In Titan -- is on like -- we say certainly, every store has a business plan and there's a same-store growth plan. So we hope to do better than that in the future. But yes, there is -- and depending on the age of the store, of course, but overall like-to-like growth has to continue to grow because stores have to be -- continue to remain as profitable, if not more.
Safe to assume 8% to 9% kind of a growth you would be able to achieve in the medium- to long-term?
Should be better. Why only 8% to 9%?
We have a next question from the line of Devanshu Bansal from Emkay Global Financial Services.
Sir, we are making inventory investments through additional infusion at stores. While this is reflecting in a stronger growth profile, but do you expect working capital to increase from current levels?
Working capital has gone up. But in our case, because of GOL, the capital employed is still under control and pretty much where it was. But yes, of course, we expect inventory to go up. But it may not go up to the same extent because on capital employed, we might be able to do a more efficient play out there.
There are 2, 3 levels, like one is of course gold rate and diamond rate also contributes to rupee value of inventory. So while that's the number which kind of you see in the reported numbers, not this quarter, but last quarter and you will see that number. Then there is -- so one is that rupee value and then that term part of it. We keep our eyes on the term, but it is right by some of these places and we are taking [ consensus ] call of some inventory intensity going up. But overall basis, we are keeping a close eye on our inventory efficiency over. And that trade-off decision also some time, again, growth margin carrying costs than meticulous.
Got it. So the incremental growth, et cetera, should not necessarily result in to increase in ROCE profile for us? Is that a good understanding?
So right now idea is not to kind of significantly include one again in inventory terms, but over the medium- to long-term period, some improvement can be affected.
We'll take our last question from the line of Latika Chopra from JPMorgan.
I have just one question. I'm sorry, it's again around the whole demand scenario. I wanted to know what's your read on the consumer sentiment at a broader level? For jewellery, I can understand there are various nuances. Probably there are more wedding dates. There's anticipation of gold prices going further up. And of course, your own initiatives to drive market share gain. But when you look at other categories and we do now operate across host of discretionary categories, how are you sensing demand consumer sentiment? Because most of the other companies are kind of calling out some caution on urban discretionary demand.
Latika, this is Venkat here. I think the biggest advantage that Titan and other companies like Titan have is the consumer segments from which the bulk of the business emanates. And those consumer segments are sitting in the top half of the intent class segment in the country. And they are much at the time substantially removed from results of inflation.And therefore, from a near-term and FY '24 point of view and even further, that is an advantage that Titan has, one. The second is that the exceptional database that we have got 20 million plus in-circle membership with a deep understanding of their preferences, of their purchase history. And on top of that, many millions of them personally known to our staff and therefore, a sale is a telephone call away in a sense because of that relationship.So the intrinsic ability of these segments to buy things and the relationships and the understanding that we have with many millions is the difference that Titan Company has in this overall situation that you're looking at. And therefore, we are quite positive about calendar '23 and IFRS '24.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Venkataraman for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you very much for all the probing questions and all the best wishes as always. See you in the next quarter.
Thank you. On behalf of Titan Company Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.