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TCPL Packaging Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Summary
Q3-2024
Over nine months, the company's revenue has grown by 5%, but this figure is influenced by a reduction in raw material prices which affected net conversion revenue. Employee costs rose by approximately 14-15%, against moderate revenue growth. The company faced challenges such as subdued domestic demand after Diwali, leading to flat total revenue in the most recent quarter, alongside an export slowdown due to geopolitical issues. Currently, the company operates at around 70-72% capacity utilization with headroom to grow 20-25% overall. Looking ahead, the company aims for a double-digit growth target and expects incremental capacity utilization in the coming quarters.
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to TCPL Packaging Limited Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Anoop Poojari from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on TCPL Packaging's Q3 and 9M FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. We have with us Mr. Saket Kanoria, Managing Director; Mr. Akshay Kanoria, Executive Director; and Mr. Vivek Dave, GM Finance of the company.
We would like to begin the call with brief opening remarks from the management, following which we'll have the forum open for a question-and-answer session. Before we start, I would like to point out that some statements made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature, and a disclaimer to this subject has been included in the results presentation shared with you earlier.
I would now like to invite Mr. Saket Kanoria to make his opening remarks.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining us on our earnings call for the period December 31, 2023. I trust all of you have had the opportunity to go through our results shared with you earlier. I will initiate the call by taking you through our business highlights for the period under review, after which we will open the forum to have a Q&A session.
In recent quarters, our company has demonstrated remarkable resilience in navigating through the challenges in the domestic market. This period saw subdued demand growth, particularly in the liquor segment due to decartonization along with a notable decline in raw material pricing. Despite these factors, our performance in export and growing contribution from the flexible segment has supported overall growth in the first 9 months. The impact of reduced volumes post festive season has been notable, especially affecting growth in Q3.
On a consolidated basis, the Q3 FY '24 revenue decreased by just under 4%, standing at INR 363 crores. However, in 9 months FY '24, our revenues expanded by 5% year-on-year to INR 1,141 crores. On the profitability front, though, we reported early stand-alone EBITDA of INR 59 crores, leading to a healthy margin of 16.6%. The performance of our subsidiaries, TCPL Innofilms and creative offset adversely impacted our consolidated margin. As a result, our consolidated EBITDA stood at INR 55 crores with margin at 15%.
In the TCPL Innofilms vertical, we have encountered certain setbacks on our new [indiscernible] line. Our internal team, along with the machine vendor are actively working towards addressing these issues with the resolution anticipated in the next few months. However, despite these setbacks, we are making good progress in the development of sustainable packaging using our MDO PE film. This initiative has successfully supported one of the world's largest FMCG company in introducing their first fully recyclable MDO PE mono-polymer pouch for their key brand in India.
Regarding creative, while domestic electronic demand has remained subdued, particularly after the festive season, the vertical has successfully secured many new customers contributing to encouraging year-on-year growth. Recently, we acquired the remaining stake in creative from the previous promoter, achieving 100% ownership. We remain confident in creative's huge potential despite the near-term challenges. As we actively work on scaling its operations, we expect a positive contribution to our profitability from next year onwards.
On the operational front, we are pleased to announce the successful initiation of our third flexible line at our Silvassa facility incorporation of a new box [indiscernible] into the flexible packaging unit in Silvassa complements the existing 2 lands with the addition of this state-of-the-art printing press along with other balancing and post-press equipment we have significantly increased our production capacity for flexible packaging.
In conclusion, we are actively broadening our reach through customer and sector diversification. Despite short-term challenges, we maintain a positive outlook, recognizing the structural growth trends in Indian manufacturing sector, including packaging. With investments in enhancing our capabilities within both paperboard and flexible segments, we believe TCPL is well positioned to leverage this opportunity.
On that note, I would request the moderator to open the forum for any questions or suggestions that you all may have. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Pavan Kumar from Ratnatraya Capital. .
Sir, on the creative side, I mean, I understand how the predictability of the rest of the business. But on the creative side, sir, what are the factors that particularly drive this particular business? And going forward, what is yet full capacity, what will be the revenues that you would be able to achieve here? And are there any CapEx plans for that?
Akshay. I'll just answer that question. So what drives the business, I didn't understand clearly, but I think basically you mean like what's the industry like? Or...
So basically, actually, what I was asking was, it looks like from whatever numbers that have been put out, the contribution from creative side, at least on the revenues, seem to have almost half compared to the last quarter. So I'm just wondering, I mean [indiscernible] exactly, yes.
And so your line is a bit unclear, but that's not correct. Revenue of creative is growing in double-digit, yes, by high double digits. So that way, there's a growth. There's no concern in terms of growth. But it's still at a low base. So the overall business still has a long way to go. And as far as the industries that factory mostly target the electronics business, but we have made some headway with FMCG and cosmetics and food and those kind of customers as well, where we see long term, there being a very good growth potential as those brands start premiumizing more and more. Yes. So I hope that answers your question.
On the capacity and CapEx.
On the capacity and CapEx, on the capacity side, we have enhanced substantially the capacity since we took over the factory, and we recently did a major renovation to the plant as well as upgradation of the printing equipment. So we have enough capacity now to go into triple-digit figures because basically, this kind of product line, there's a very big variation in the value one can output on the machines over there based on the quality of job. Because you can do a box of INR 250, INR 300 also, you can do of INR 20 also. So the capacity does not vary that much. It's not like the same kind of way of working.
And just to add, creative has achieved a 20% growth on top line in the current year, so yes.
I mean, for this particular quarter, what would be the revenues? Can you please outline, if that would be possible?
We don't give the quarter wise revenue for the subsidiary company, but there is a double digit -- high double-digit growth.
That you were saying for the 9 months number, right?
Even for quarter.
30% plus growth, yes.
Okay. And any CapEx plans next year on the creative side to further enhance the capacity? Or as of now...
Noting clear now.
Nothing, [indiscernible]. Yes.
The next question is from the line of Vipul Shah from RW Equity.
For the first time, we are seeing actually a sequential decline in the trailing 12-month revenue and the EBITDA, although gross profit has shown a minor growth. If I read your comments, sir, in the second quarter, you mentioned there was good volume growth. So just wanted to check, sir, in this third quarter, how much of a volume decline have we seen?
Actually, I don't -- as you are saying, trailing 12 months, we have declined, we have not declined. In fact, if we talk about the current year, in 9 months our revenue has grown 5%, per se. But there's another metric which I would like to add, which is the net conversion revenue. Because what's happened is that the raw material prices in the current year has gone down compared to the elevated raw material rates in 2022. And so if we see the FY '21, '22, the company had a revenue of INR 1,055 crores, which grew 32% to a revenue of INR 1,400 crores in '22, '23. And on that base, we are now 5% up.
However, the net conversion revenue last year, that is FY '23, grew 37%. While revenue grew 32%, net conversion revenue grew 37%. And in the current year, the same rate has been maintained. So what we are seeing is that the top line shows that the growth is very moderate, but that is essentially out of raw material pricing correction because the international prices of all feedstock has gone down significantly and that has affected our revenue obviously, because paperboard price and polyester film and BOPP and all substrate rates have gone down significantly in the current year.
That I understand, sir. So is there -- in this third quarter, is there any volume decline we've seen, sir?
Volume is basically flat in the third quarter, yes. Basically after Diwali, where the demand growth has been very subdued.
There was a lot of inventory in the pipeline at our customers end so the uptake was more subdued than -- every year after Diwali, there's a bit of a hangover. This time, it was slightly worse than usual because there was a lot of stock in the system. But that's bouncing back this quarter, what we see, yes.
Because generally, also, if I read the MD's comment, that this liquor decartonizing has also been an issue. Generally third quarter and you see the results of the liquor companies also. So they have actually reported pretty decent numbers. So just one question, sir, which I had is that, is this like decartonizing a temporary setback? Or in your view, it is a much more secular shift to maybe other packaging materials?
I mean, right now the liquor company is not moving to any other packaging materials. They are selling the bottle without packaging at all. And this seems to be a decision taken by these 2 global multinationals, except for limited edition packs for which they still buy some packaging. But yes, it's a big decline.
And how much time it will continue for or whether it will continue forever, it's something very hard to predict that this -- obviously, we would like them to come back in consumers. Ultimately, it's to be decided by consumers and how they perceive the product. So it's a bit early to comment on that. It's a very big impact because while our 9-month growth has been 5%, let's say, if liquor was not declining the way it has, we would have been very comfortable double-digit growth.
Got it, sir. And sir, last, if I may. Is that -- have we also seen some slowdown in the exports this quarter specifically? And going forward with the geopolitical disturbances which are there, do we see envisage more subdued export potential?
In export, the -- in export challenge, of course, right now which is for the last 6, 7 weeks is this crisis in the Red Sea, which is pushing up sea freight and also the time to market, but otherwise export has performed all right. And going forward also, we don't expect any big change. Of course, if the Red Sea continue for another one year or something like that, then that this bound to impact all companies and all types of products.
The next question is from the line of Sourav Dutta from Minerva Asset Advisors.
Just for housekeeping...
We can't hear you.
Can you speak up, please?
Yes. Am I audible now?
Yes, yes, little louder.
So just for housekeeping, I wanted to understand how did the EBITDA per converted tonne move in the stand-alone business?
Converted tonne, we don't really measure that metric. But you must have seen the data in terms of percentage of revenue, which has, in fact, increased in the stand-alone company.
Right. But revenue might have noise in terms of how paperboard, plastic is being priced, which is why I wanted to know this metric.
Right. But per tonne is not -- we don't look at that way.
Right. Okay. So I mean, would it be possible to break down the revenue decline in Innofilms and the COPPL business by volume and pricing?
It's not possible to do that. Again, it's not homogeneous procedure. There's no revenue decline, though, in either of those 2 companies.
Okay. Not even for the quarter, in particular?
Yes. No, not even for the quarter.
Okay. And finally, could you -- can you quantify the expected revenue impact in FY '24 from decartonizing in the spirits industry? And also, would you expect to see more of this in FY '25? That's the last question.
I think the FY '24 has borne the blunt of the decline in the carton -- decartonizing for the liquor. So in FY '25, the starting point itself is low. So we won't see any further decline.
The next question is from the line of Jainis Chheda from Spark PWM.
Am I audible?
Yes.
I'm Jainis Chheda from Spark Private Wealth. We already covered TCPL Packaging. My -- more than question, I would like to give a suggestion or a feedback that since now we have started a third flexi packaging line as well. Can we get a quarterly breakup factors in terms of what is the flex revenue versus carton revenues on a quarterly basis and how much is our export revenue versus domestic revenue on a quarterly basis? Is it possible to incorporate that in our quarterly presentations?
See, we'll consider your suggestion. And our presentation is quite elaborate in any case. So we'll discuss and we'll see what -- to the extent we can share.
Yes, thanks very much for your coverage and interest. But the competition is all private. All are looking at our numbers and you will be attending these calls also. So we have to balance the info we share and what we don't share.
I completely understand the privacy aspect of the business, but still some directional data will help us understand a bit more. Secondly, my question is to do with employee costs which has gone up. So any particular reason for that?
Employee cost?
Employee cost?
Yes. Any particular reason behind that?
Employee cost has gone up in line with the big increase in minimum wages in the current year. There has been unprecedented almost 15% increase in minimum wage almost across all our plants. So that is one factor. The second is, of course, the annual increment. And the third is some increase in headcount because of the higher capacity which has been created. So while the revenue has gone up 5%, the employee cost has gone up, I think, 14%, 15%. But it's based for the future really. We should be able to normalize that.
The next question is from Nikhil Shetty from Nuvama Wealth.
So sir, as per our understanding, export growth pace was slow during Q3.when we compare it to Q1 and Q2 this year. Thus, I believe as per our calculation, around 8% to 10% kind of a domestic business degrew this quarter maybe because of the volume or the slower second half of this quarter. Is it the right understanding?
Export has been -- has not grown in Q3 compared to Q2. That is basically on the right track maybe by a quarter or so the difference. But the domestic has not declined, really. The total is about flat in the current year, current quarter, total revenue.
So is there any seasonality in the export market? Or is it because of a base or due to some Red Sea issue?
There's not any major seasonality, I would say. I mean, unlike in the domestic which is quite seasonal nowadays because of the Diwali, lead up to Diwali is generally more buoyant. In export, we don't find any such event as much.
And sir, is there a base left due to cartonization in Q4? or it is already done? Like now, we are at a breakeven and Q4 will not see impact of the cartonization.
Yes, Q4 will see much lesser impact of decartonizing. Because decartonizing started from July, August '22 and then it's slowly the impact came. So we've seen the blunt of it. And this quarter, current quarter, still there will be some impact.
Still there will be some impact, but probably -- but from next year, I guess not -- it should be normal.
Next financial year will be normal, yes.
Q1 onwards, you're saying?
Yes.
And sir, during your opening remarks, you mentioned about adding a new customer in Innofilms. So what kind of opportunity we can expect from this particular customer?
What I mentioned is that we have launched a fully recyclable packaging made out of the film from Innofilm. Innofilm has got great opportunity, but we had some challenges with the -- on the technical side with equipment, which we are working towards for settlement with the machine supplier. But yes, that is -- overall, I think it's -- if you ask me, would you do the investment again, I would say yes, because that is the future.
Right. But how we are going to serve these customers then?
We are producing the -- yes, I mean, the machine is in operation and we are able to manufacture the material. The only issue is about the wastage and the productivity, which should be better than what it is.
And sir, we -- I mean, since the installation of this machine, we are facing lots of issues.
Yes.
And I believe in the last one year, you guys are trying hard to stabilize and get this add output, but it is still not able to achieve -- and I know this is the new technology, but still by when we can expect these all things get settled?
We are quite hopeful now that in another month or 2, it should be normalized because a German company has found out the root cause and they are sending us the requisite parts which will be changing. Also they have modified some software. So they expect that they will be able to put this right. And then we have to discuss with them the compensation for the losses incurred by us.
Next question is from Bhavesh Jain from DB Investment Advisors.
So we saw a sequential debt reduction on quarter-on-quarter basis of INR 40 crores, around before it is INR 7 crores. So what is the year-end figure we can expect?
So the debt comprises of working capital and term debt.
I'm talking about the net debt figure you have mentioned in the...
That's the net debt, year-end figure compared to the Q3 figure, I would say, there will be -- it should be pretty much a little lower than the Q3 figure, I would say. Because we have some repayments in the current quarter and draw down on new debt in the current quarter is going to be very marginal, because our CapEx for the current year is almost completed. So there's no new CapEx really in these next 2 months.
Are we targeting for any aggressive debt reduction further on?
No, we are not targeting any aggressive debt reduction because we have -- as you know, we have a constant growth target and therefore we continuously expand capacity. And this current year, we've added 4 new printing lines, which is quite unprecedented. So it depends really on how much is the potential to grow. And based on that, CapEx is going to be planned.
Okay, okay. And my second question is regarding the TCPL Innofilms. So we have seen some operational issues from past 3 quarters. So just wanted you to touch upon what kind of revenue potential we can expect from this subsidiary?
So this subsidiary firstly is getting merged into the parent company. And [indiscernible] has now passed in order, and we hopefully, it will happen. So the revenue will get merged. And essentially, the film produced of this is going to be used in-house only. So it's not that we're going to sell too much of the film. So the potential is to replace raw material, which we buy today with our own film.
Sir, I just asked because in Q2, we mentioned that we will supply -- we will start supply to third party.
We will do some sale, but the focus is to convert on it and to make it into the packaging.
Okay. And my last question is regarding the -- we saw other income of around INR 7 crores this quarter. So like what is it about? What is the nature of it?
That's all operational. It is other income like export benefits and scrap sales, et cetera. So this is a pretty normal figure, nothing exceptional.
Next question is from Harshil Shethia from Ladderup Wealth.
Sir, just wanted to confirm a news. Is there any news that burger packaging is under the weather?
No, I can't comment on this. They are very much in business.
We don't like to comment on competitors on this call, but...
Under the weather, we don't know.
The next question is from Resham Jain from DSP Asset Managers.
I have just one question. In terms of capacity utilization, where are we currently both in carton as well as in flexible? And with the addition of new lines this year, and Innofilms plus creative further getting added, will get ramped up, let's say, next 2, 3 years, so what kind of growth one should expect at a consolidated level over medium term?
I would say that the -- Resham, we are, I would say, around 70%, 72% capacity utilization currently. And I would say that we should be able to target to go up to 85%, 90% ideally and get -- creative has the potential to increase its revenue almost 50% from current pay. Innofilm, as I said, there's not much revenue generation there because it will be more substitution of our raw material. And on the other side, you can say that from 70%, 72%, and we go up to 90%, that's the headroom we have with us. So overall, I would say 20%, 25% of headroom for growth on -- based on current capacity.
The next question is from Riya Mehta from Equitas Investments.
My first question is in regards to the raw material. You've been saying that the prices of [indiscernible] and other packaging material have gone down. So how are the prices currently in the month of January? Are you seeing a further decline?
No. In the month of January, in fact, the prices are going up a little bit because again this Red Sea is causing some disruption in their raw material, but it is not anything significant. It's a marginal increase.
Just to add on that, basically I think we are at the kind of bottoming out of the RM pricing. Now it should start going up slowly, slowly.
Got it. And in terms of -- hello?
Yes. Go on, please.
Yes. In terms of flexible packaging, as you said, that we have our headroom for 20%, 25% growth. Do we have any further capacity on brownfield expansion post this?
So right now, we have completed all our current expansions and nothing immediate on the headroom.
And currently, the utilization level to 70% to 72% for the 2 lines, right?
We are talking about for the company as a whole.
Okay, okay. And for flexible as a segment, if you could help me?
So in flexible, we have -- we used to have 2 lines. The third has just got commissioned. So the capacity utilization there is obviously lower and there's a big achievement...
[indiscernible] that would be?
That would be about...
I mean, that will become 30% of the total capacity. So that's all 3 right now, plus a little bit from the last 2 lines.
Sorry, I didn't get it.
Basically, the third line has just been commissioned. So therefore, the capacity utilization in the flexible, considering the third line, is the lower than it is in carton. But the third line has just got commissioned as we speak in the current -- I mean, in January month.
Sure. My question was more pertaining towards the existing 2 lines, what will be the capacity utilization there?
Yes, so obviously [indiscernible] percent. Otherwise, then we wouldn't have put the third line.
Okay. And in case you would put a fourth line, is there a possibility?
Yes, there is a space available, if that's your question.
The next question is from Pavan Kumar from Ratnatraya Capital.
Sir, what would be the CapEx plans going forward? I mean, since we have already made the additions, do we see any CapEx plans in the near term? Or how do we look at that?
So in the next financial year, we haven't yet formed up our CapEx plan, but they are kind of moderate. There's not a very heavy CapEx next year unless something new comes up.
Okay. And to fill this flexible -- new flexible line capacity and also the paperboard capacity which we have got extra, how much time do you think it will take us?
This is an ongoing activity. So it will take a couple of quarters at least. But I mean, you will see better performance as we go along.
So are you saying in couple of quarters full utilization?
No, not full. I'm saying there will be a gradual increase quarter-on-quarter.
Okay. Sir, can we expect more than double-digit growth at least for the next year? How do we look at that?
Our guidance is always -- our target is always to grow double digit. And certainly, we would feel let down if we can't do that.
Okay. And one last question, sir. Do we think our current margin levels are sustainable, at least on the EBITDA or EBITDA margin?
You have to see us take up for last few years to answer that question.
Next question is from Pulkit Singhal from Dalmus Capital Management.
First question is on the domestic side. I mean, what is the potential for market share gains going ahead here? I know we have been gaining at a certain rate out there. One of the key competitors has also been growing quite rapidly. I'm just wondering if you could share some initiatives or some white spaces? Or do you see some areas of faster growth than whatever the market is performing?
Pulkit, I'll answer this question. See, specific segments I won't get into, but there are many segments where we have very limited presence still and -- or we have no presence also. There are some geographies of the country where we have no presence. So in these segments and these geographies, there is always a scope for us to grow in future. And there is our general customer growth which has been very subdued these last few years, and we expect or hope rather that it will improve.
And further, there is a premiumization and value addition and whatever we do. So that also adds on some growth. And yes, there is always further scope even within our existing customers to add more share. Now about the competition, certainly, people will try to grow as fast as they can. But it's our job as responsible stewards of the company to ensure that we balance that with the sustainable kind of margin profile. So definitely, we are not in the business of losing share of business.
But the point is that if the basic underlying market doesn't grow, then even the -- no company can't beat that. Ultimately, it depends on the overall market.
Yes. I mean, I guess your ability to increase share is also better when the market growth. I mean, a declining market gets tougher.
Yes.
Okay. And secondly, on the creative side, I mean, good to know that you've increased capacity I mean, what is the peak revenue which is now possible from the enhanced capacity?
Basically, as I said earlier, it can go to triple-digit crore revenue, but it really depends on the product mix because in this rigid box business, it's a very -- it's dependent on the kind of job that you get. So there's -- the capacity figure, per se, is not really very meaningful.
Understood. You had this target of INR 100 crores for this business.
Yes, and we continue to add.
Any sense of like how many years it might take before we reach, sir?
No, but it's growing every year. So the rate of growth is -- it's a very low base. So really 1 or 2 customers can really boost performance up.
Okay. Right, right. And last on the export, any update? I mean, I know you were targeting the U.S. market and you're also trying to build up the sales to address various other markets. Any update out there? And I mean, are you seeing some of those conversations convert into orders or what are the concerns that we might have?
It's a work in progress. It's constant effort. It's going on. And overall, no concern as such.
Yes. It's positive overall.
Yes.
Thank you very much. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference back to the management team for closing comments.
So thank you, everybody. I hope we have been able to answer all your questions. Should you need any further clarifications or you would like to know more about us, do feel free to contact us or CDR India. Thank you again for taking the time to join us on this call, and look forward to interact again with you all in the future.
Thank you very much. On behalf of TCPL Packaging Limited, that concludes the conference. Thank you for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect your lines.