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TCPL Packaging Ltd
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to TCPL Packaging Limited Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Jenny Rose from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on TCPL Packaging's Q1 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. We have with us today Mr. Saket Kanoria, Managing Director; Mr. Vidur Kanoria, Executive Director; and Vivek Dave, GM Finance of the company.
We would like to begin this call with brief opening remarks from the management, following which we'll have the forum open for interactive question-and-answer session. Before we start, I would like to point out that some statements made in today's call may be forward-looking in nature, and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation shared with you earlier. I would now like to invite Mr. Saket Kanoria to make his opening remarks. Over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you all for joining us on TCPL Packaging's Q1 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. I will begin the call by taking you through the key financial and operational highlights for the period ended June 30, after which we can open the forum to have a Q&A session. We are pleased to share our first quarter performance with marked promising start despite the challenges presented by the current operating conditions. Our revenue stood at INR 371 crores, up 8% compared to the previous year. This was mainly driven by higher sales volume from our flexible packaging division and exports. Such growth effectively countered the subdued domestic demand and the impact of decreasing raw material prices witnessed during the quarter. Additionally, our EBITDA demonstrated a healthy growth of 13%, with our margins improving by 64 basis points to 16.5% on a year-on-year basis. These positive results were supported by a more favorable product mix and proactive cost management efforts. During the quarter, our PAT and cash profit stood at INR 23.6 crores and INR 48.4 crores, respectively. Building on this, we are pleased to confirm that we remained on track concerning the expansion plan we outlined in the previous quarter. Developments include the installation of a new line at our Haridwar plant as well as establishment of a third line at our flexible plant at Silvassa. These strategic developments underscore commitment to our sustainable business expansion. On the whole, our unwavering dedication to growth has steered us towards diversifying our footprint across varied industries and related segments. This strategy has consistently increased our revenue year-on-year for the past 2 decades. We take great pride in the fact that TCPL is amongst the select few listed companies in India to achieve such a distinction along with an impressive CAGR of 18.4%. We believe our commitment to such sustainable growth would create and is creating long-term value for all stakeholders. Looking ahead, we see immense potential in packaging solutions by FMCG, F&B and other emerging sectors. Our emphasis on sustainable packaging places us at the forefront of environmental stewardship and innovation, contributing to positive change within the industry. With cutting-edge technology, we provide environmentally responsible packaging solutions that improve product quality and shelf life while promoting a greener planet. Overall, TCPL is well prepared to meet the rising demand for sustainable packaging from leading brands.
On that note, I've come to the end of my opening remarks and would like to now ask the moderator to open the forum for any questions or suggestions that you may have. Thank you.
[Operator Instructions] We have a first question from the line of Nikhil Shetty from Nuvama Wealth Research.
Yes, sir, congratulations on decent set of numbers. My question relates to the first quarter revenue. I believe there was a high base of liquor in our revenue during the first quarter of last year. So can you please share Q1 '23 and Q1 '24 liquor contribution to our revenue?
Sorry, I didn't understand. Liquid?
Liquor.
Liquor contribution. Yes, liquor contribution in the last year was -- I can't share with you the exact numbers, but this is the first quarter where we feel the brunt of the big decline in liquor revenue, and now it has reduced to a very insignificant level. So I hope that answers your question.
So I mean, even any ballpark number would help us to evaluate the impact.
The impact is -- in the past, we have mentioned that liquor was a big segment for us. And after the decartonization announced by the majors last year in May, it started from May, so the impact happened really from July, August onwards, it has been declining. And now I would say that the full brunt of that impact has happened, and a small volume is being carried on. Obviously, that will continue to happen because it will never be 0. There are limited-edition packs, there are special packs. There are certain brand -- niche brands. But overall, there's a big decline.
Okay. That's helpful. And also, if you can share the impact of realization due to this passing of raw material prices to the customer.
It's very difficult to calculate exactly and to give you a very credible number. But I would say that the domestic carton volume has been pretty much flat, but the decline in top line could be in single digit because of the decline in the raw material price mainly.
Okay. Yes, yes. So my next question is on margins. So we reported the highest gross and EBITDA margins since the integration of flexible packaging business. So is there a chance that EBITDA margin could increase by at least 50 bps every year for next 2 to 3 years as a result of better product mix and benefit coming from the integration of Innofilms business?
These questions have been asked to me in previous quarters also. And my answer to this has always been that it's very difficult to give a guidance on what the margins would be because it depends on so many factors, competitive factors, raw materials, the product mix. So we already had quite a good margin. And to expect a 0.5%, as you said, increase every quarter is, I don't think, practical. But if we can grow our top line and maintain this margin, we should be quite happy.
We have our next question from the line of Pavan Kumar from RatnaTraya Capital.
Sir, have the decline in raw material prices already been passed on to the customers fully? Or there is another portion, which will have to be passed on in the second quarter?
No. Nowadays, the raw material pricing decline has been passed on pretty much. We had some inventory therefore, we have to -- it takes some time. So there's always a one quarter lag. But by and large, it has been passed on.
Okay. And what would be the utilization rate at our flexible packaging line?
About 75%.
Okay. And by the end of the year, what do you expect this utilization to be, sir, around?
Sorry, I didn't get that. End of the year?
What can this utilization level be of the current capacity? I'm not assuming the new line to be operational this year, right?
I mean, we are working towards -- it should be fully utilized, the old lines. Because the new line will also kick in.
Okay. So currently, we have 2 lines, right, sir, and we are saying those lines will be fully utilized?
Yes.
We have our next question from the line of Jainis Chheda from Spark PWM Private Limited.
My question -- first question will be with regards to the rigid packaging. What is your outlook over there and what kind of margins that we expect on the rigid packaging space? And who will be our customers over there?
So in rigid packaging, currently, the performance of -- it's a subsidiary company called Creative Offset, and there the unit because of the total scale of operation is on lower side, so the margin is very low mainly because the overhead is high. So the first step there is to increase the -- expand the revenue side. And once we do that, then the margin would be comparable or higher than our parent company margin. And customers there are these mobile phone manufacturers and other electronic equipment manufacturers, like wearables, that is watches, headphones, et cetera.
So are we going to benefit from that? So it is a -- recently, government announced the laptop bans in -- import of laptops. So those kind of electronic packaging...
It's not part of this -- the type of packaging we do. We do much smaller-sized boxes.
Okay. And what will be the capacity utilization right now over there?
Right now, the capacity utilization is around 50% -- less than 50%.
Okay. And second is to do with your realizations and the margins. What's your look for the next quarter? Will it be under pressure or it will be stable considering the inventory that is there to happen?
I think the current and next quarter is pretty positive because we have the festive season coming up. And generally, these quarters are good quarters. This year, Diwali is also in November, late. Normally, it is end October. So we have that much extra time. So current outlook is positive only overall.
Okay. And one last question. What are the business risks that you see for next 2 to 3 years?
What about the business of next 2, 3 years? What do you mean? Sorry?
What are the business risks that you see for the next 2 to 3 years?
Business risks. We don't see anything different in the next 2, 3 years as compared to what it is now.
We have our next question from the line of Riya Mehta from Aequitas Investment.
My first question is in regards to the rigid packaging. In the mobile side, what would be our market share, around?
Our market share is quite small right now. It is very difficult to quantify how much it is.
And with the newer companies like Apple and all coming to India, will this benefit us?
Yes, the trend is to benefit us. We are not yet a supplier to them. But yes, overall, India is increasing the output of mobiles. So it is a big benefit to people around.
Any marquee customers of the clients?
Yes, there are lots of marquee customers, starting with Samsung and many other smaller mobile phone manufacturers.
Okay. And in regards to our main folded carton business. What kind of -- hello?
Yes. Go ahead.
Do you see the major demand coming from alcobev segment since it's a major driver for us?
No, it's not a major driver for us anymore. The alcobev segment is, in fact, decartonized. So the packaging volume there has declined.
Okay. So what would be the major driver?
There are many other businesses. I would suggest you should study our website and you will get this kind of information.
[Operator Instructions] We have a question from the line of Faisal Zubair Hawa from H.G. Hawa and Company.
Sir, duplex board prices look to be coming down on -- almost like on a very structural basis because of the NR coming up. It's a huge unit almost next to where our catchment area is. Do we feel that, that itself could lead to at least 1%, 1.5% EBITDA improvement in the next at least 3 to 4 years? And secondly, sir, how do you feel the whole iPhone opportunities coming up for us? Is there a chance that we would do a lot of manufacturing for them and probably even export the boxes for them?
So duplex board capacity whether NR is coming or someone else is coming is not so relevant. It is a very cyclical business, and it's up and down based on how much they export and what the demand outside India is. So we cannot forecast what's going to happen in the next 3, 4 years. Right now, the trend is that the pricing is downward. And we have a pass-through mechanism, by and large. So yes, of course, when prices are going down, it is overall beneficial to us. And we welcome NR's investment, which is also nearby our facility. iPhone represents a huge opportunity. And Apple seems to be very serious about expanding its presence in India. So far, they are procuring from their global vendors, but I'm sure that they are looking at broad basing that. So in the future, it could be a very good opportunity for people like us.
So would it require like too many approvals and almost like a 1- to 2-year kind of going through their systems, et cetera?
I mean, there's a process for it, and one will have to go through it.
But we are looking at it?
Yes, we would -- yes, we are looking at it.
We have our next question from the line of Pavan Kumar from RatnaTraya Capital.
Sir, Innofilms line, is it now fully fixed and functional? Because last quarter, we had some problems and I guess the production was not at a full capacity. So what is the status now?
It's the same status. We are still awaiting parts, which are expected in the first half of next month. And then hopefully, we feel that we should be able to ramp it up.
Okay. But you are hopeful that by Q2, at least some parts will get some...
We are already operational. It's not that the machine is shut or anything. But it's that the value-added film is the problem. And that we are waiting for these parts. And no sooner do they come, we are hopeful that we can get going on it. So the impact will be felt on the third quarter, not in the second quarter.
Okay. And what are the steps we are taking, sir, to actually ramp up the rate Creative side in the sense -- I mean, if you look at it, stand-alone versus consolidated numbers, we are still losing money.
Yes. So Creative, we are making a lot of effort. We have expanded our marketing setup. We are meeting new customers. There are a lot of opportunities. We have broad based our customer base. We have also modernized the plant. So there's a lot of efforts going on there to expand the customer side.
Sir, do we still expect to ramp maybe Creative to, let's say, around INR 8 crores to INR 10 crores by the end of the year? I am talking about per month revenues.
I mean that was our -- we had given you the -- last time, we had given that indication that, that would be our goal. But whether it will happen in the current financial year, it's not -- I can't tell you that. But that is our strategic objective.
[Operator Instructions] We have a question from the line of Jainis Chheda from Spark PWM.
Sir, so [indiscernible] net working capital days is 89 days currently.
I'm sorry, sir, can you use your handset mode, please, Mr. Chheda.
Am I audible?
Yes.
Our net working capital days currently are around 89 days. Any scope of improvement over there?
No.
So it's has peaked.
I mean it is what it is.
Okay. And so our current asset, what is the peak asset turn that we can clock, fixed asset turnover ratio?
I think we have -- what is it we can do, we can do a little better than what we are doing now because the current utilization can -- has some headroom.
Okay. And the new lines that are coming up in both flexi as well as cartons -- I mean, the rigid cartons -- the cartons packaging, when are they expected to be commissioned? And what is the outlook over there?
So there's a new line coming in Haridwar. We're expecting it to be commissioned towards the end of September or early October. And there's a new flexible line, which we expect in the latter part of Q3.
Okay. So in terms of our cash flow management, how do we look at it? Current debt is around INR 500 crores. So is debt expected to come down? Are we aiming for a 0 debt company?
No, we are not aiming for 0 debt. We think that that's not very wise. But we should have some amount of debt. But our leverage has gone down significantly in ratio terms and our current cash flows are quite comfortable.
We have our next question from the line of Harini Dedhia from Tamohara Investment Managers.
Sir, I have a question regarding the gross block turns. Earlier, we used to have a range of doing turns of about 1.2 to 1.3, 1.4. Now we are in that range of 1.5 to 1.7. What has changed fundamentally in terms of -- I know flexible packaging has higher asset turns, so that must have contributed a little bit. But is the scope of our work with our customers increasing, where we're doing a lot more specialized the metallic prints that we have, the embossing that we have, is that the reason why we're doing better asset turns? Is it the kind of machinery that we are buying today versus what we used to have? What is it that has led to this shift? And you've already said that there is scope for more improvement. So if you can just help me understand how we have consistently been improving on this number.
Yes. Thank you. Very nice question. I must compliment you for this observation. The asset turn has increased a little bit also because there are some older equipment which are depreciated. Number two, we are doing more value-added packaging, which is reflected in our EBITDA margin as well. And number three, there is a general inflation in the economy, which is, let's say, if you compare it to 5 years ago, the base material values are higher. So that also contributes to this. So it's a combination of various factors, product mix and base raw material levels. I would say that, that's the real reason for it.
Got it and congratulations on a great performance, sir.
Thank you.
We have our next question from the line of [ Srinath N., ] an individual investor.
A couple of my questions have already been answered. My question was what is the CapEx you're looking at this year and say over the next couple of years, annual CapEx?
This year, we are looking at the CapEx of around INR 100 crores. Next year -- currently, we don't have any very significant CapEx plans, but we are forming them up as we go along.
Right. And are we getting into the other forms of flexible packaging as well? I mean you were considering installing the metallizer and so on. So are we going ahead it there? Or we are still focusing on...
We haven't yet taken a final call on that.
Okay. And last one was a slightly technical stock market question. Stock price is running into high 4 digits. So to improve liquidity on small stocks, would you consider things like stock split or bonus issues?
I don't think these things really work in the long run. So it is something that we may consider at some point, but no immediate plans as such.
Because there's no downside to it. And who knows...
Right. But there's no -- it doesn't really -- there are companies with INR 1 lakh price also and have high volume. So it's not necessary that that's the answer.
We have our next question from the line of Dhavan Shah from AlfAccurate Advisors.
So my question is on the breakup of the volume and the price growth for this quarter. So we ended up with the 8 percentage top line growth. Can you break it up between the volume and price?
In our business, to break up in volume and price is very challenging because it depends really on the product mix that we are talking about. So it's not very easy to give you a very credible number. But overall, I would say that the -- but the pricing has been lower per tonne. However, there has been a growth in total top line. So the lower price has been offset by a higher volume growth overall.
And what was the exit utilization for folding cartons and the flexible packaging for the first quarter?
Folding carton was at about 70%.
What the last quarter utilization was?
Last quarter utilization was slightly higher than that, but not much significant change.
And the flexible packaging?
Flexible was at 75%.
Got it. And would it be possible to share the EBITDA per tonne between these 2 segments?
No, this is not something that we share.
Okay. And was there any inventory loss during this quarter?
Yes, the inventory loss is kind of notional. It is always there when prices are falling. So to quantify that is also very challenging because sometimes we have inventory covered for customers and the pricing is then reset after that inventory is utilized.
Got it. But the majority of the impact is already factored in?
Yes, yes, yes.
We have our next question from the line of Riya Mehta from Aequitas Investment.
My first question is in regards to what would be our export contribution this quarter?
Exports have done very well this quarter. But to give you an exact percentage is data we are not sharing, but it has been quite high.
Could you guide us to what kind of double-digit growth can we see in the export business?
Yes, double-digit growth.
And in terms of rural packaging, we have been hearing statements on the management of the FMCG companies that it is growing at almost high single digit. So do you see a similar trend happening with your business?
You mean in oral?
Rural. Rural.
Rural. No. I mean, for us, it's not possible to track rural and urban. Overall FMCG, I would say, is around 4%, 5% growth.
Okay. And that would continue?
As reported by most of our customers, volume growth is not more than 3% to 5%. Yes. Now if the rural may be higher, urban may be lower, that I cannot tell you.
Yes, yes. So in fact, the growth for your customers was mainly value-led. So going forward, the commentary is that the volumes would come back...
Yes. That's the expectation because now there is no inflation for them to pass on.
Right, right. And in terms of -- you were mentioning about value-added packaging that we have been recently increasing our share. So what kind of -- if you could just give a ballpark direction as to what percentage it would be and how do we take it forward?
This is kind of a very subjective question. So value-added is something where you add some embellishment into the packaging or you have a better quality raw material. So this is an ongoing kind of trend. And in some -- most brands are upgrading most of the time. So this continues. It's not really -- I would say, year-on-year, this would keep improving.
So on an upward trend from these levels?
The number trends -- I don't have such a figure to share with you.
Okay. And my last question would be, since the raw material prices are decreasing, our realizations have also been on a decreasing trend. Do you foresee the rest of the year the volumes to be offset by the lower realization like we did this quarter?
Yes.
We have a next question from the line of Naysar Parikh from Native Capital.
I just wanted to understand the mix -- the segment mix between F&B, pharma, cosmetics, if you could give that mix. And going forward, where are you seeing better growth trajectory? If you could give some color on that?
Mr. Parikh, I'm sorry, we don't share segmented numbers. So it'd be difficult to share with you that. But I would say that growth in pharma, F&B or FMCG doesn't follow a very divergent trend. It's pretty much similar.
Okay. Got it. And would you have some sense of how do you think about market share? And what are the areas where you grow beyond your current customer volume growth? What are those areas? Or what are the segments that you would want to grow in? And if you could give some sense of your market share and competition, how are you positioned versus some of your peers.
It's a very large industry. And given the fragmented nature of it, it's very tough to really calculate our market share. And I mean, when I say that we want to give some number out, it has to be backed by some solid data. So it's not so easy. But we are looking at penetrating into a lot of categories and new categories like electrical, electronics, toys, FMCG, food and beverage, pharma to an extent. So across the board, really.
If I can ask this differently. In your top 10 clients, you would have a sense of your share of wallet with them? I mean do they work with 2, 3? How many people do they work with?
Yes, in some cases, it could be even 50%, 60%. In some cases, it could be 30%, 35%, something like that.
Got it. And just last question in terms of the 2 subsidiaries that you have, can you give some sense of how the revenues from that will be? Is it fair to assume the next 2 years, the revenues from both may not be significant and your 2 main divisions will only be driving it? Or how do you see that?
So the operating subsidiary, we have 2, which is TCPL Innofilms, which is being merged into TCPL Packaging. And then there's Creative, which is currently very small subsidiary. So I think in relation to the parent, it will be always very small.
But in either of them, are you seeing any traction? Or are you seeing significant growth opportunities or order inquiries or something that is there, which could mean an upside?
There is a lot of opportunity. And we feel that with the growth in the electronics segment in India, we are very well poised to capture part of it. So I would say the outlook is very positive.
Got it. And can I just slip in one last one? You don't obviously, I think, talk about order book, but would you have a sense of -- for the next quarter or something over the next part of the year, what is the kind of order book position that you have or orders...
Similar to the previous participant, I said that this current quarter and next quarter is looking positive overall. So the order book is not bad right now.
We have a question from the line of Riya Mehta from Aequitas Investment.
Sorry, just a follow-up question. You told in the folded carton segment, the capacity utilization was around 70%. At the peak, how much utilization can we go up to in the current capacity?
We can go up to 90% as well.
We can go up to 90%. And by when do you see that we're using our current facility to the optimum?
I think you -- I can't tell you because this keeps changing.
We have our next question from the line of Pulkit Singhal from Dalmus Capital Management.
Great performance during times when RM prices are declining and you had that one-off industry factor of impacting alcohol volumes. Question is, if you were to exclude those alcohol volumes, how much would have the carton industry revenues grown for you or volumes grown for you?
I think it would have been a very, very good quarter. I can't tell you the exact how much it would be. But yes, it would be quite a nice quarter.
Understood. And secondly, I think most FMCG companies are calling out 2Q and 3Q to be better than what they have experienced in 1Q. Is that something that you are witnessing as well?
Yes.
Okay. Thirdly, I think the margin performance is also quite robust. I mean, I'm surprised because, obviously, the revenue decline has been there in the overall carton business. So what would explain high margins in a declining domestic carton business? I mean, is it the product mix of alcohol was inferior, and excluding that, has become better? Or there is an element of lower RM prices also somewhat benefiting you?
No. First point is that our export has outperformed the domestic, and export generally is at a higher margin. So that is the principal reason.
Understood. Okay. And the kind of growth rates you've seen in export over the last 3 to 5 years annually. Is that the kind of levels we are sustaining at?
Right now, we are heading towards that direction. What happens in future is to be seen. But yes, we are -- it's quite strong.
Understood. Just last question. Any new trends in exports that might be benefiting you, I mean, versus what you've seen previously?
Yes, we are looking at newer markets. We have now started initial exports into the U.S., which we were never doing, and it represents a big opportunity. As you know, because the U.S. is a massive market. So it's also a very tough operating market because of the distance and the expectations. So early days, but if we can do a good job there, then I feel that we have a very big potential.
I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you.
So thank you, everybody. I hope I have been able to answer your questions. Should you need any further clarification or you would like to know more about us, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations team or CDR India. We hope to have your valuable support on a continued basis as we move ahead. On behalf of all of us here at TCPL, I once again thank you for taking the time to join us on this call. Look forward to interact again with you soon. Bye-bye.
Thank you, sir. On behalf of TCPL Packaging Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.