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Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
Symphony Ltd
Symphony's earnings call for Q3 and the first nine months of FY '24 revealed various insights about the company's performance. While India's domestic sales suffered due to heavy trade inventory at the summer's end, this was more than compensated for by the improved performance of Symphony's subsidiaries. Gross profit margins and EBITDA margin percentages experienced a healthy increase, benefitted by strategic pricing, value engineering, and the easing of input costs. The Symphony group announced a third interim dividend of INR 2 per share. Subsidiaries reported a 12% growth in top-line for the nine-month period, reaching INR 321 crores, and a 15% growth for the December quarter, with EBITDA margin percentages turning positive compared to a negative 4.30% in the previous year.
Key subsidiary highlights include IMPCO Mexico achieving its highest ever growth for both the nine-month period and Q3. It performed along or slightly above internal business projections. Similarly, subsidiaries in Brazil and GSK China also showed notable growth, all three being in the profitable zone. Yet, Climate Technologies Australia still reports EBITDA losses due to persistent demand headwinds, albeit the losses are narrowing.
Symphony's consolidated revenue dipped by 6% year-over-year for the nine-month period, standing at INR 824 crores. However, a 12% reduction in the cost of goods sold has led to a significant gross profit margin improvement. The company's EBITDA remained stable around INR 111 crores, with a slight increase in PAT. For the December quarter, even though the topline declined by 11%, major gains were noticed in gross and EBITDA margins, leading to a 6% increase in PAT at INR 41 crores.
On a stand-alone basis, Symphony India faced a 16% degrowth in revenue over the nine-month period, attributed mainly to the high inventory levels in the trade channel. Nevertheless, gross margin improved to 49.3%, and the PAT marginally increased. The December quarter reported a top-line decrease and a marginal increase in PAT percentage. Capital employed turned negative for the December quarter, but the company maintains a robust return on net worth (RONW) of 19% and a healthy treasury.
Symphony continues to lead the air cooler industry with a maintained market share of around 40%. The company is optimistic about leveraging the complementary strengths of its international business, such as IMPCO Mexico and Climate Technologies, to outsource many products from India and China. Recognizing the normalization of international sea freight rates and the potential long-term drivers both overseas and domestically due to intensified heat waves, the company sees a strong tailwind for air coolers. It is also noted that Climate Technologies Australia is undergoing a transformation towards a fully outsourced business model, scheduled to begin next year.
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Symphony earnings conference call hosted by Investec Capital Services. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Aditya Bhartia from Investec. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Zeco. Hello, everyone. Good afternoon. I would like to welcome the management of Symphony Limited to discuss Q3 FY '24 results. We have with us today the senior management of the company, represented by Mr. Achal Bakeri, Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Nrupesh Shah, Managing Director Corporate Affairs; and Mr. Amit Kumar, Group CEO and Executive Director.
I would now like to hand over the call to the management for their comments. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yes. So we will have a brief presentation. I welcome all of you to Symphony Q3 and 9 months earnings call presentation. So customary safe harbor statement applies. So the key highlights for this quarter on a consol as well as stand-alone basis. India domestic sales has impacted for this quarter, mainly on account of summer-end trade inventory of cooling industry, that is of air conditioners and air cooler inventory of the peers.
However, as our subsidiaries have performed better than previous year, it has more than made up the loss of profitability of stand-alone and overall gross profit margins as well as EBITDA margin percentage have witnessed decent rise on account of tactical pricing, value engineering, softening of input costs. And now as many international factors, including shipping costs are also getting normalized, we have started leveraging the complementary strengths of our overseas subsidiary companies. Large space ventilated air cooling continues registering the robust performance and growth. And the Board of Directors have announced third interim dividend of INR 2 per share in all amounting to INR 13.80 crores.
Coming to subsidiaries. So subsidiaries as a whole for 9 months have registered top line growth of 12 percentage, which stands at INR 321 crores; while for December quarter, it stands at INR 92 crores, top line grew 15 percentage.
EBITDA margin percentage-wise, now subsidiaries are in a positive zone. So earlier, subsidiaries put together, last year for 9 months, it was negative by about 4.30 percentage, now positive 3.1%. And at a PAT margin still negative, however, decent improvement. The major highlights of subsidiaries are IMPCO, Mexico for 9 months as well as for Q3 has registered highest ever growth and it is performing absolutely in line with or slightly better than our internal business plan, and summer season has been a strong tailwind. Same goes about Brazil as well as GSK, China. And all 3 of them are now in [ black. ]
As far as Climate Technologies Australia is concerned, on account of various measures, its EBITDA loss has reduced. However on account of demand headwind persists, which is likely to continue even in current quarter. Still, there is an EBITDA loss, but it has narrowed substantially.
So this is the Sankey chart of consolidated performance at a consol level. Revenue from operations for 9 months stands at INR 824 crores, which is lower by 6 percentage Y-o-Y. However, cost of goods sold, that is nil of material costs and variable costs, is lower by 12 percentage, resulting into improvement in gross profit margin percentage by 320 bps, which stands at almost 48 percentage and leading to EBITDA margin percentage improvement of about 40 bps, that is 13.5 percentage. And despite lower sales, consol EBITDA stands almost at a same level that is INR 111 crores, and PAT is about INR 100 crores, marginally higher than previous year.
Coming to December quarter consol financials. Top line is lower by 11 percentage mainly on account of Symphony India. However, gross margin percentage has improved by 380 bps and it stands at 47.5 percentage. EBITDA margin percentage has improved by 190 bps that is at 17.6 percentage. And PAT is up by 6 percentage at INR 41 crores.
And this is a waterfall chart of December quarter consol EBITDA margin movement. So as it can be seen, it has moved from 15.7 percentage to 17.6 percentage.
Some of the key financial metrics. Capital employed in core business on a consol basis stands at INR 248 crores, leading to ROCE of 18% and return on net worth of about 15 percentage on trailing 12 months.
Coming to stand-alone, that is Symphony India performance. For 9 months, there is degrowth of 16 percentage on account of reasons as mentioned earlier, and it stands at INR 545 crores. Gross margin has improved to 49.3 percentage, and EBITDA is lower by about 2 percentage mainly on account of impact of top line and it stands at 18.9 percentage. And PAT for 9 months is at INR 107 crores, that is 19.6 percentage, marginally higher than previous year.
For December quarter, top line is INR 177 crores. Gross margin is INR 46.3 crores that is INR 82 crores, lower by 19 percentage. And PAT, on a stand-alone basis, stands at INR 43 crores, which is 24.2 percentage, about 1 percentage higher than Y-o-Y. But absolute amount-wise, 17% is lower.
And this is a waterfall chart of EBITDA margin percentage movement from 25 percentage to 23.2 percentage. So some of the fixed overheads show negative, mainly on account of lower top line, which we expect to be taken care down the line once sales normalizes. And on a stand-alone basis, capital employed for December quarter is negative INR 11 crores, RONW, 19%, and treasury stands at INR 455 crores versus INR 635 crores a year before and on account of negative capital employed on a stand-alone basis, there is infinite ROCE.
And coming to outlook. Symphony very much remains numero uno, #1, in air cooler industry. It very much maintains market share around 40 percentage on account of a variety of reasons as discussed and explained from time to time. Now in current scenario, we see a major opportunity of leveraging the complementary strength of our international business, mainly for IMPCO Mexico as well as Climate Technologies, that many, many products are going to be outsourced from India and China.
For Climate Technologies starting next year, it will be 100% outsourced business model. In-house manufacturing will be stopped completely. And now we see even normalization of international sea freight, by and large. And there also seems to be long-term structural drivers in overseas as well as domestic market on account of intensified heat wave, leading to strong tailwind of air coolers. As I explained in the past, the transformation of Climate Technologies Australia is going on and it is as per schedule, except currently there is some slowdown in the demand on account of local factor. Thank you.
So we can take the questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Manoj Gori from Equirus Securities.
Yes. So I just have 2 questions. One, if I look at probably on the domestic business, on sequential basis, we saw some decline in revenues. So probably -- like obviously, this was not expected by me. Probably I would have gone wrong somewhere. Can you highlight like what led to this decline on a sequential basis because ideally it should move in the upward trajectory. Can you throw some light over there?
So Manoj, that's a good question. And like we said earlier also in the presentation, there are 2 core reasons for this. One is that at the end of the season, given the seasonality of the business, part of the channel had the heavy stock of the all kinds of cooling products. So July 2023, air coolers, air conditioners, in many cases, in parts of north, there was the high season ending inventory. So the build-up of the inventory across the channel in early parts of this quarter has been low. That's the core reason.
No, my point was like high inventory levels...
And under sequential [indiscernible] is I believe your question is vis a vis September quarter, why in December quarter, domestic sales is lower even though the same situation was prevailing in September quarter, right?
Right.
Yes. So the point is, even though we do have a decent collection as conveyed earlier. But on account of cooling product inventory line with the trade, trade is not intending to lease them. And hence, we are unable to build that. So even as on 31st December, we do have a decent amount of unbilled collection, which we believe should be transferred to sales in the ensuing quarter.
Right. And sir, so should we expect like as of December, probably as compared to last year, the inventory level should be normal? Or are they still higher?
By cooling product inventory, what we mean is not only air coolers, but all cooling products, including air conditioners, which are lying unsold with the channel, which is weighing down on sales of our products as well.
Right, sir. Got it. And sir, on the subsidiary front, so obviously, it was a very encouraging performance probably when we look at the -- on the profitability side. So Climate, obviously, would be doing better in the coming quarter as well. But should we expect like this kind of -- or the quantum of improvement that we have seen on the subsidiary side is more sustainable in nature? And probably, if you can throw some light like how the demand scenario pans out in U.S. market and even in Australia, and how should we expect during fourth quarter. And also if you can throw some light on FY '25 internal estimates.
Yes. So as far as the influence is concerned, they are much weaker this year than they were last year. And as far as Australia is concerned, things have -- we believe this is about as bad as it can get going forward. This would certainly be better. We have also added a range of new products, which the company had never sold before, including products like coolers from India or portable air conditioners, general air conditioners, panel heaters, or oil-filled heaters, et cetera, et cetera, higher places. We've added a whole range of products, which should also gather momentum in the times to come. So all told, with a wider range of products, as well as having hit probably what I believe is rock bottom, things can only be better from here in Australia.
And as far as IMPCO Mexico and Brazil and GSK China are concerned, they have delivered well. And it is expected to perform in line with what it is delivering.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Pulkit from GS.
Sir, my I think question is...
Sorry to interrupt you. May I request you to use your handset, please.
Okay. Is this clearer?
Yes, sir.
Okay. Yes. Sir, my question is a follow-up to the previous question, more in line of the end market demand. I mean while, obviously, we've had these erratic summer seasons, when I look at the last few years, we have not really seen any growth in the domestic market. While obviously, internationally, there were hiccups that we are trying to fix things. I just want to understand how should one look at the domestic end market demand environment, and is coolers as a category becoming less favorable?
So Pulkit, [indiscernible]. But if you look at a 3-, 4-year time line, the overall market size may give a picture of stagnation. But what we need to keep in mind is that the market has degrown during the COVID years, and the peaks of the COVID was precisely during the peak season of the business. And when we take that out of the picture, then over the last 2 years, the market is getting its momentum back.
So as we go forward, the market is likely to grow. We are also seeing a conversion from the unorganized and metal cooler market into organized fiber-body cooler, so that will provide further thrust to growth of the organized segment of the market. So that's our reading of how things are likely to pan out in the short to medium term.
So sir, okay. So if I was to assume a normal summer, then over a 2-, 3-year period, what is the kind of CAGR the industry, in terms of volume, could see, in your view, and what you are sort of preparing for?
So as per our IR policy, we are not giving any company-specific guidance for the ensuing quarter or year. However, as I understand, your question is about the industry growth and sustainability. So we believe that industry seems to register, on an average, at least about 10 percentage CAGR growth. However, when it comes to the organized sector, the growth should be even higher than that because it is gradually shifting from unorganized to organized, plus higher value as far as organized sector is concerned. And as you know, Symphony commands almost 50% in market share.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Siddhant Dand from Goodwill.
Yes. Can you hear me?
Sorry to interrupt, sir. May I request you to use your handset, sir. You're audio...
Hello?
Yes, sir, this is better. Please, go ahead.
Yes. I just wanted to ask, we have seen that in ACs, the EBITDA margins have come down to mid-single digit across the industry, including for the market leaders. So what justifies the 20% plus margin in coolers? And can we expect it to get competitive on the price front, the market?
No. So as you would have observed, our EBITDA margin percentage even in the past has been substantially higher than air conditioners. In fact, most of the times, even though per unit air coolers face value is lower than per unit air conditioner, but per unit profitability is higher than air conditioner and that is on account of uniqueness of the product, brand, dealer distribution network, et cetera. And we believe that, in fact, we have a decent scope not only to maintain the current margin profile, but to improve the margin profile.
In fact, as you would have observed in subsidiaries, even though they were having, especially IMPCO Mexico, decent margin, we could further improve upon in terms of GP margin as well as EBITDA margin percentage. And as far as Climate Technologies is concerned, it is in transformation phase. So there, also, we believe that there is a decent scope. And GSK has also registered that.
Okay. So...
But to the extent both are not really comparable because of the type of the business model what we manage and run.
And would our margins be different in modern trade and traditional general trade? Or would they be similar?
No. So broadly similar.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Anirudh Joshi from ICICI Securities.
Sir, 2 questions. Can you indicate the market share trend for us in -- air coolers in India over the past 1 year, means whether we would have gained market share or lost? And any way, again, in the region why if you can indicate further trends, urban, rural, metros and smaller cities or even a region-wide, whether east, west, north and south, any indication for the market share trends. That is one -- question number one.
And secondly, in a way, now we are seeing massive capacity coming in air conditioners. So in order to utilize the capacity, there might be -- next 3 to 4 years, we may not see any material price increase in air conditioner also. The technology change or the -- even the regulatory related price hikes is also behind in air conditioner. So do you see that will result in higher growth in air conditioner sales impacting the -- reducing the gap between AC versus coolers? Yes, those are the questions.
So Anirudh, so for the first part, if you look at the market share pattern over the last 2 years, I would say broadly, we have retained our market share closer to about 50%. Over the last few years, there has not been a material change, so to speak, on either side of this base number. So that's where we are. And I would refrain from baking this into a regional mix. So that's the picture at the pan-India level, which we are maintaining over the years.
In terms of the growth expectations, Nrupesh sir has already mentioned the kind of growth we are expecting in the air coolers market. For air conditioners, there has been sizable growth. For both the products though, as you would note, the penetration levels across the country are very low. So we do expect healthy growth in both the categories and, in many cases, they are complementarily going across the country.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Vignesh Iyer from Sequent Investments.
Sir, 2 questions on more of a order side of the business. Just to understand, since you have been saying that there has been a shift from unorganized to organized, what has been our win share of -- from the business that is moving from unorganized to organized? Do we have any internal estimates of whatever win is of the business that is moving?
So Vignesh, so while we have agreed -- as we said, the overall market share across the cooler category, the organized cooler category that we track, we have retained it broadly at about 50%. So using that information, I would broadly conclude that we are gaining a reasonable share from the -- conversion from the unorganized to organize level. There would be a possibility that some of the -- even within organized segment, there is a premiumization happening, and we might be getting a better share of the premium category. But retaining the market share in the overall scheme of things at 50% would not be possible if you were not getting a share of the conversion from unorganized to organized.
Okay. Right. Understood. Just another point that [indiscernible] this company historically, right? So we have been consistently doing -- in the past done somewhere around 25%, 26% margins as well, right? So now we are seeing that, at consolidated level that is, yes, we're seeing our subsidiary turnaround and reaching breakeven. So is there anything in place that will help this company grow back to that 20%, 25% margin on a consistent basis? I mean is there something that has changed very drastically in the industry itself for us to not go back to that margins, just to get an understanding?
No. So we have a road map and we have internal target to achieve that, and also some strategy in place. So we believe that, certainly, there is a good possibility to improve overall margin profile on stand-alone as well as on a consol basis, including at subsidiary level, particularly Climate Technologies.
Okay. So what would be -- what is the internal estimate maybe over a period of 5 years, if you can tell me. I mean, I'm not asking for a guidance per se. But on immediate basis, what is -- would be the outlook for the company since it is more than -- almost 50%, 55% part of the industry, cooler industry that is organized part, what would be the 5-year vision that the company has, just to share with the investors and the shareholders.
I think let we deliver and let the figure decide actually rather than the can we convey or give direct/indirect guidance in that respect.
Also for us, our North Star is what we had back in 2018, which was a 32% EBITDA margin on a stand-alone basis.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Hardik Rawat from IIFL Securities.
Yes. Can you hear me now?
Yes, sir. Please, go ahead.
Yes. So I just wanted to understand what are the individual -- what are the numbers -- revenue and EBITDA numbers for the subsidiaries individually.
Just a moment, please. So for 9 months, IMPCO Mexico. All figures in INR, top line is INR 126 crores versus INR 80 crores. Gross margin percentage, 45 percentage versus 36 percentage. EBITDA, INR 19 crores versus INR 4 crores, that is 15 percentage versus 5 percentage.
Climate Technologies Australia. Top line INR 142 crores versus INR 173 crores. Gross margin improvement from 29 percentage to 34 percentage. And EBITDA, negative 11 percentage in line with last year. However, noteworthy figure for Climate Technologies Australia is December quarter. In December quarter, we could improve despite, on a similar phase of last year, GP margin up from 28 percentage to 40 percentage, and EBITDA was negative 10 percentage. In December quarter, it is negative 3 percentage.
Coming to GSK China. Top line INR 27 crores to INR 33 crores. And EBITDA, which was slightly negative previous year, now stands at positive INR 4 crores.
And Symphony Brazil, turnover up from INR 7 crores to INR 22 crores. And EBITDA, which was 0, now stands at INR 3 crores. So all in all, subsidiaries put together for 9 months, top line up by about 12 percentage from INR 288 crores to INR 321 crores; and gross profit margin 38 percentage versus 31 percentage. And EBITDA, all subsidiaries put together, positive 3.1 percentage versus negative 4.3 percentage. So this is for 9 months.
Got it. And one more question with regards to -- you mentioned something about the unbilled sales resulting in a -- partly resulting in a sequential decline in revenue. Could you please elaborate on that exactly what happened there?
So Hardik, basically, as you are aware, part of our business model is that we take advanced collections from our channel partners. And then that advanced collection is billed as we move towards the season, starting from the July, August quarter itself. Now this year, while we have been able to get advanced collections from our channel partners, many of them are yet not ready to get the billings done from us because they are across the downstream channel, which is on the secondary side. They are sitting on large inventory across multiple cooling products.
So the billing has been deferred or delayed from the downstream side. And as the category starts moving, the billing will be executed in the current quarter. So that's broadly the larger picture.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from the line of Aditya Bhartia from Investec.
My first question is on the gross margin, which, while on a year-on-year basis expanded, but on a sequential basis, we saw a bit of a decline. And last quarter, we had spoken about some value engineering that we had done and also talked about commodity costs playing through. So how should we read about it? And how should we think about margins going forward, specifically additional inventory build?
Yes. Aditya, I think you might be referring to stand-alone EBITDA margin, which certainly sequentially has come down. But as we talked earlier, gross profit margin percentage in fact has improved. However, on account of the growth in sales, as fixed costs remain fixed, which impacts the EBITDA, and that's where the reduction has come.
No, sir, I'm speaking about gross margins declining versus September quarter. On a sequential basis coming off from, let's say, somewhere around [indiscernible].
Don't read much into that. It's more also about the product mix and sales mix. So more relevant is 9 months and year as a whole. In that respect, it doesn't matter much.
Understood. Understood, sir. And sir, my second question is also somewhat related. You have mentioned that you see the possibility of market moving from unorganized to organized. At any point of time, can you use the pricing lever a bit, as in reduce the pricing a little or compromise a little on margins in order to be gaining market share expedited?
So we have a wide portfolio of products which are priced at various price points. So we -- it isn't that we are only catering to the higher end of the market, we have modeled at lower end as well. But yes, I mean, in one sense, we could do that, achieve volumes over growth or over profitability. But we believe that we could do that more strategically with smart pricing rather than sort of across-the-board reduction in margins.
Sure. Sir, should we not be anticipating any change in strategy of what you've seen in the last couple of years? Is my understanding correct?
I didn't get your question.
Sir, just in terms of pricing, so we should not -- are you saying that there is unlikely to be a major change in strategy versus what you've been following in the last few years?
There won't be any major change in strategy. Absolutely not. Besides, please remember that the gap between unorganized sector and any organized sector company, normally Symphony, is so wide that it would be impossible to bridge. That unorganized sector is a reality in our country, is a fact of life, and you can't do anything about it. And that is true not only in air coolers, but almost every sector that one can think of, where the entry barriers are relatively low. So unorganized sector is here to stay. And there is no way that any company in -- any organized sector company in any sector can reduce the pricing to that level -- to their levels.
Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question of our question-and-answer session. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you for your participation, valuable inputs and questions. I also take this opportunity to thank Investec for hosting this conference call. Looking forward to see you in year-end analyst conference call.
Thank you. On behalf of Investec Capital Services, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.