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Earnings Call Analysis
Q2-2024 Analysis
Strides Pharma Science Ltd
The company has expressed confidence in its progress for the second quarter and is particularly enthusiastic about the newly announced OneSource initiative.
Looking to the medium term, the company has set a goal of reaching a $400 million size within two financial years to maintain its current margin profile in the U.S., coupled with a strong emphasis on accelerating product launches with significant revenue potential. This includes products that are expected to generate more than $20 million each.
Management has underlined fiscal prudence with an operational expenditure (OpEx) forecast that will not exceed $200 million for several years, indicating a sharp focus on cost optimization. This is part of a larger strategy to improve EBITDA margins, which are anticipated to be close to INR 950 crore next year, despite a reallocation of approximately INR 150 crores to OneSource. This will also see a significant reduction in the debt-to-EBITDA ratio, expected to be well below 2%.
The management highlighted their commitment to improving the Cash Conversion Cycle (CoC) from 150 days to approximately 112 days over the next few quarters, which they see as crucial to handling increasing working capital needs accompanying an anticipated top-line growth of 15-16%.
The company's long-term vision was articulated with an intent to build mirrored markets in areas other than the U.S., targeting other regulated markets to match the U.S. business benchmarks. While a $400 million revenue in the U.S. is likely within a couple of years, replicating this success across other markets is a process they expect will take longer, around four to five years to accomplish.
Structural shifts have been implemented within the company to streamline operations for the coming years, targeting robust financial health with no anticipated extraordinary items in the future. A strategic decision was made to change personnel compensation structures by eliminating variable pay for most employees, which is expected to provide more predictability and stability in financial performance going forward.
The future of the company's Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization (CDMO) business, OneSource, looks promising, with an expected launch year revenue between $150 to $160 million and projections to escalate to $400 million by FY '27.
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Strides Pharma Science Limited Q2 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. [Operator Instructions]. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Abhishek. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks. A very good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today for Strides earnings call for the second quarter ended financial year 2024. Today, we have with us Arun, Founder, Executive Chairperson and Managing Director; and Badree, Executive Director, Finance and Group CFO, to share the highlights of the business and financials for the quarter.I hope you've gone through our results release and the quarterly investor presentation, which have been uploaded on our website as well as the stock exchange website. The transcript for this call will be available in a week's time on the company's website. Please note that today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature and must give you relation to the risks pertaining to our business. After the end of this call, in case you have any further questions, please feel free to reach out with the Investor Relations team. I now hand over the call to Arun to make his opening comments.
Thank you, Abhishek. Good afternoon, and good evening to everybody joining in. Really appreciate your time today. I know it's a busy earnings season, so we appreciate your time today. We have reported a very strong quarter. It's our fix constitutes quarter of absolute EBITDA growth and also an all-time high in terms of revenues. Just to avoid some conclusion that could have occurred with our study reporting. I would like to mention that the INR 269 million shown as other income is income earned on IT, which are in our normal course of business, and it is not a one-off income.As a company moves more and more to B2B, it's part of this business model is to license products to partners and also would get upfront payments for licensing income, but also for use of IP. I just want that to be clarified so that there is no confusion on the numbers. Having said that, it's a milestone in terms of revenues for the company [indiscernible]. All businesses have done well. There has been no business that has underperformed. We provided [indiscernible] guidance as we were busy resetting the company since the last 6-odd quarters. And I'm pleased to confirm that all our outlooks are on track.One to stay with revenue growth of 15% on continuing business, this has already been 16%. Historically, the H2 is a significantly stronger half of the year, and we are therefore confident to even beat the revenue growth. The exit run rate of the company in this quarter on constant currency is approximately $500 million of run rate. And I think that's a decent base for those of you who follow us and right about us to consider as a more reset paid after post collection.We are also pleased to guide our EBITDA now to the higher end of the range. This is based on our strong order book in H2. Several product approvals that we received recently, including a critical product as a generic [indiscernible] which would be launched in this quarter thereby giving us confidence that we will be closer to the higher end of the range. We're also pleased to see a significant improvement in our net debt-to-EBITDA ratios. We started the year in FY '22 at the reset at close to 8x. We ended FY '23 at 5.3x. H1 business now improved to about 3.3x. And with the continuing free cash generation, we are very confident of meeting our net debt-to-EBITDA target of under 3% in FY '24, we have committed. Our network optimization program has been complete. As many of you know and as we have guided earlier, we maximized our global unit since the last 2 years, considering that we have now had a manufacturing facility in New York.Singapore, therefore, became unviable for us to operate because it was mainly meant for the VA business and the government procurement programs, which [indiscernible] produced in Singapore, considering moving all our products to Chestnut Ridge, critical products in Chestnut Ridge Facility in the U.S., this facility had become [indiscernible]. So this was sold, although we incurred a onetime loss, this improves our EBITDA and EPS flow through by almost about INR 60 crores a year, considering that there are several significant part of the depreciation line item included leases which is part of our Singapore set that we've got. This will improve both EBITDA and below EBITDA line items. All of these proceeds will be used to reduce debt further. And with our net debt reduction of INR 62 crores, this is in spite of the fact that we continue to invest in CapEx for our CapEx, for our ongoing CapEx needs in India, but also in the U.S., but also the fact that we grew the business by 16%, our focus on free cash flow generation, reduction in our cash-to-cash cycle times, which has been reduced by 30 working days approximately from FY '22 to now to just under 125, 126 states.And we'll further work through those days as our business quality improves. The business moving more and more to B2B will mean that our licensing income will continue to grow. So also, will there be a reduction in our cash-to-cash cycles to starting further improvements in our netbook. I would specifically if I take regions, the U.S., we guided in the last call of revenue guidance of $240 million to $250 million, considering H2 is a significant part of our U.S. business, which are cold and flu and acute therapies and with some important product approvals like the ones I mentioned in my opening statement, we are now very confident of achieving the higher end of our guidance of $250 million.With the completion and closure of the warning letters issued to Pondicherry, which was closed out last quarter, we are now expecting several new product approvals. And that also and a continuing work on getting products that we acquired through the Endo portfolio, that continues to be brought to India to be more competitive, to have more robust manufacturing processes around them, approvals around them also continues to grow. The stellar performance from our other regulated markets is mainly driven by a continued growth of business in Australia, the Nordic regions and a significant uptick in our business in Continental Europe, consequent to a complete to B2B in these markets.We continue to add new partners. We continue to get several products approved, several products filed, and we believe our front-end operations in the U.K. and the Nordics added by a strong partnership model in the rest of Europe will help us drive this momentum. And our strategy, obviously, is to have the other regulated market mirroring the U.S. market so that we deal with the higher dependency on the U.S. business. We seeded the growth markets, as we call them, as you would see that the growth markets have started to show results.We are continuing to develop these products with these markets with increased focus on new geographies and new portfolio. And we believe in the next 2 to 3 years, the growth market and access market will become as important as a market as the rest of the world, the other regulated markets. So overall, it's been a pleasing result for the quarter. A lot of the work that we have invested in the last 8-odd quarter is now playing through. We're very pleased with our operating leverage, free cash generation, a gross margin improvement, which at close to 60% is almost industry high, considering that we do not have a domestic business.And again, the one-off in Strides with all the work that we have done with network optimization is complete. A loss pickup from our JV, as we guided in Stelis from our associate company, Stelis from H2 will be very negligible. The business in H2 will be EBITA positive. We continue to add significant new contracts in our CDMO business in OneSource. And we expect to close the gene transaction as guided in this quarter. Consequently, our powered debt reduction of about INR 700 crores between the 2 companies will fall in place, but will also release a significant amount of corporate guarantees of strengths.So in all, we're very close to achieving everything that we committed would be our focus. And I think we got the company back to a state of continued growth, you will see significant upsides in terms of new product launches. We have some several nice products coming our way in the next couple of quarters. And we keep you posted as soon as we get those approvals and give you continued information on market share.We continue to see important price stabilization for our portfolio. There are cases where we have price pressures in 1 or 2 products. We apply a very disciplined approach to product market share, and that's not on price leadership. But because of our large portfolio of products, we can afford the luxury of letting your pipeline of products that don't meet our margin criteria. Having said that, we have enough emulation with products approved or under process of site changes from Endo to India for us to be more competitive.So overall, a good result, and we will continue to grow from here. Our focus, obviously, now is the conversion from EBITDA to free cash and to ensure that the [indiscernible] percentage is increased considering the one-offs are all sort of [indiscernible]. So that's the general overview of the quarter. We are excited about the prospects for the second half. And we continue to be very excited about OneSource that we announced recently. And we believe that there will be significant value accretion for all our stakeholders in the coming days. So thank you for your patience, and both of you and I am very happy to take any questions that you may all have.
[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from the line of Rohit Mundra, an investor.
My first question is on the U.S. business. So we have sustainably achieved 60 million quarterly run rate now for our U.S. business. And I think we are very much on [indiscernible] guidance. So what will drive the next level of growth? And how should we look at the base of $240 million growing over the next couple of years?
So we've mentioned that to maintain the kind of margins that we are focused on the U.S. market, we would peak out closer to $400-odd million. That's our first milestone. We have all the products approved to get there. We believe that this can happen in the next 2 years as we slowly build out this business with the kind of margin profile that we are currently operating at.
Okay. Got it. And secondly, could you provide your view around the current competitive scenario in the U.S. market and something around the price erosion that we faced during the quarter?
So I think that there is generally a more disciplined approach in terms of pricing, both with the buying universe and the selling universe. That doesn't mean that there aren't one-off rational pricing that we see. So it's a lot better than what it used to be, but it's not vanished from the marketplace, although the product shortages are increasing, but rational pricing still continues. Considering that we have a very niche portfolio with over 30 products of us in 1 or 2 in terms of market share for many years. We have been able to maintain these market shares. And therefore, I'm not saying that we are not new to price pressures, but it is relatively small for our type of business.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Aman Vij from Astute Investment Management. Please go ahead.
My first set of questions is on our GLP-1 portfolio. So in the last call, you had mentioned that we had made some solid investments in devices and are a leading drug device player globally. So I would like you to elaborate more on this part. So are we saying that we have started manufacturing the self-injection drug delivery systems also, which is required for GLP-1?
So the GLP-1 is part of Stelis, which is an associate company of Strides. We currently have about 15 customers, and we partner with several companies worldwide. And we have filed all the weight loss and aid drugs which are in drug device formats, not only we [indiscernible] but a lot of other programs, too. So to answer your question, we are in a very strong position, but the patents for this start going off partially in FY '25 and the main patents get off only in 2013. So commercial supplies will not start quickly. But having said that, we do a lot of R&D, we do get a lot of R&D income and we do hold a very large order book for our contract manufacturing opportunities led by GLP in one source, which is a company that we just announced as a cover in the last quarter.
Sure, sir. Just on that clarification was left on this comment of leading drug device manufacturer globally. So you are saying we have started manufacturing this the devices, the delivery system self-injections in that subsidiary also?
Yes. What I was saying is that we have already started manufacturing products for several customers who have made their filings with the regulators. And once the products get approved and when the patent regime opens up, we will start commercial products. At this time, their development and filing matches that we have done for companies.
Sure, sir. And you mentioned there were like 14, 15 customers. And last fall, I think it was also mentioned that they have given some kind of rough visibility of around $300 million number in the next 2, 3 years. So according to your estimates, these 14, 15 customers will have what kind of market share combined? Can we as a CDMO partner for them, can this be like a 30% market share opportunity for us based on [indiscernible]?
We can't predict market share on behalf of our customers. Our model for CDMO is to do services. And if a customer wants capacities, we either get the reserve those capacities on a take-or-pay basis or a contract. And based on certain sensitivities that we do on these forecasts, we believe that our fleet revenues will get to about $300-odd million in the GLP programs, but that is dependent on our partners getting approvals, but also when we can actually start selling given the patent regime in various countries. So I can't give you more specifics beyond that.
Sure sir. And you said Asian sales will happen some part in 2025, so my understanding is, I think this is, you are mentioning for [indiscernible] right? So [indiscernible] sales FY '25, FY '26, can it be like $50 million kind of sales and it will also take time to come in?
Sales will commence, but I'm not going to put a dollar number.
Sure, sir. Just one final clarification on this part. So we used to have a tie-up with international [indiscernible] for this drug delivery devices. So given now we have it in our own subsidy, so that tie-up is no more valid or we will do both the things. We'll have tie-up with international platform companies as well as they will do?
[indiscernible] is not a platform company, it's a device manufacturer. We will have several device manufacturer partnerships. So they make the device, we make the drug device. So we put the drug in the device.
Okay. So devices we are not making for any of our products?
So, we need to get back from the queue because there are other people waiting with questions.
Okay sure, I will get back, thank you.
[Operator Instructions] We have the next question from the line of Shantanu Maheshwaril, an investor, please go ahead.
My question is regarding the other regulated markets performance, which has been quite strong. And we have mentioned in our other regulated market slides in the investor presentation that we have a strong funnel for the European B2B partnerships under the SynergICE to drive growth. Can you please put a little bit of light on this?
So SynergICE is our B2B, the name of our B2B platform. It's a platform that sells capabilities for both [indiscernible] and for Strides under one platform so that we offer multiple services to a customer. And SynergICE is probably our local B2B arm of strengths. And we partner with major companies in Europe and out-license our products, and that is how we get licensing income, profit shares and all of that. And SynergICE is the name, is a logo that we use for customers to differentiate our B2B business from our B2C business.
[Operator Instructions]. We have the next question from the line of Nitin Agarwal from DAM Capital, please go ahead.
Thank you for the question. This was alluding back to your earlier remark, just to reconfirm when you said the U.S. business sales for us can be $400 million in the next couple of years?
Yes. I mean, I'm saying that if you want to do this calibrated disciplined approach for U.S. business, in spite of us having so much of approved pipeline, we will believe that $400 million is the right size for us to keep the margin profile that we currently achieved in the U.S. and also to have a backup when we are challenged on certain products.
Right, but by when do you see getting to the $40 million mark sir?
I would assume not later than 2 financial years from now.
That's helpful. Secondly, in terms of some you mentioned about some unit launches being there in the second half of the year, I mean is there a number that you have in mind in these launches of what are we talking about, launching more than $20 million products?
Yes. I mean, Nitin, we have moved up the ante in terms of our average product range being $4 million to $5 million to now products delivering more than $10 million to $12 million. But we do have, I mean, you will appreciate that [indiscernible] should be about $20 million product by result of the size of the market opportunity. And there are several other products that would come our way very soon. So yes, we should have 3, 4 products which are $20 million and above at the end of the year, I mean, except run rates.
And I guess, is it fair to assume that bulk of the revenue realization from these products should be visible next year depending on at what time of the year in the second half when you really hit the market?
Yes.
And secondly, on the opting leverage which is inherent in the business with the scale-up that we're talking about in the business, I mean, is it fair to assume that would it be consistent with our overhead position now over the last 2, 3 quarters. So does this $200 million sort of annualized run rate for overhead sustain and then whatever incremental gross profits you need sort of flows through the EBITDA and PAT?
Yes, you're right. So we don't believe our OpEx levels are going to increase greater than $200 million for several years. And that is because of a very keen focus on costs and also a lot of things that we do in terms of optimization, OpEx leverage and OEE improvements in our plant. Having said that, the only variable would be the fate and associated warehousing costs for increased revenues. But for that, the flow-through from gross margin to EBITDA could be strong. And we believe that will be the singular pointed towards improved EBITDA margins.
And if I take it forward, I mean, what does it really imply for your EBITDA targets for this business [indiscernible] business that you will dispose of, now the [indiscernible], you look at Stride as a business over the next 2, 3 years, where can net debt EBITDA level be for the moment?
You're talking about net debt to EBITDA level? So you're talking about?
Net debt to EBITDA level?
We strongly stand by our guidance that in spite of about INR 150 crores of EBITDA moving to OneSource, we will still achieve our current EBITDA. So effectively, we are telling you that like-to-like, our EBITDA would be closer to INR 950 crore the next year. So in spite of INR 150 crores of that moving away, we will still achieve our current EBITDA and revenues. There'll be no drop in revenues and EBITDA. And we believe that in the next 2 years, our debt to EBITDA, therefore, will be much below 2%, given the strong performance that we are now achieving through our reset.
And second question, last one. In the past, I mean when you look through over the next 2 or 3 years, given the way you're seeing about the business, do you see opportunities or avenues for meaningful inorganic growth given the cash flow that will come through? Or how do you emphasize the business growth over this period of time?
It's not in the case of site. I mean I think there are the cheaper asset side and markets that we probably don't want to expand beyond the site, which is mainly in the U.S. Every other markets are not necessarily cheap. So I think again, we are just signed, we're bringing a lot more EV now considering where we started the reset and I think we need another 2, 3 quarters of consolidation and reduction of debt, which is what we are focusing on.I mean the debt is not an [indiscernible] it's working capital debt. And with $35 million moving away to OneSource, it actually becomes even better for Strides to operate. But I think for the next 2 to 3 quarters, our focus would be to improve our CoC which, like I said in my opening, started off at 150-odd days, is now 127. Our target is to bring that down by another 15 days. So that we don't have to worry about incremental working capital in spite of a 15% to 16% top line growth. So that's our focus. I think maybe you should ask this question to us after about 3 to 4 quarters.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Sarvesh Gupta from Maximal Capital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon Arun and congratulations on a very steady quarter. So just for this clarification on the U.S. business. So currently, we are trending around 16% of annual growth. And while you are saying that we can reach maybe $400 million in a couple of years. So that would mean around 30% CAGR. So are we talking about doubling the growth in the U.S. in the coming 2 financial years?
So basically, what I said is that if you look at our exit run rate for us to be at 250, the exit run rate will be close to about $280 million, right, to $70 million to $280 million. So if we do an absolute number of EUR 240 million, the excess run rate is about INR 270 to 80. So you calculate from there on. And it is not a 30% CAGR. Obviously, the U.S. growth is going to be stronger because I was explaining to Nitin, we don't have most of our new products are in the $15 million, $20 million range compared to our historical $5 million to $7 million.So that is the reason why we are upping our, I mean, reducing the time while the growth on the other markets will be slower, but a lot more steadier.
Understood. And given the strong traction that we have now found in the other regulated markets, would you like to call out some sort of guidance in terms of growth or where we want to be in a couple of years?
It's too early to call out guidance, I wish. I think our idea is to grow the other regulated market as a mirrored market to the U.S. So if our product design strategy plateau at $400 million in the U.S., we would like the other regulated market to mirror that size. So if you take us a lot more than 2 years to get there considering that currently, our excess run rate is likely to be about $200 million, which is almost 50% growth in the last 2 years. So we think that there's a lot of momentum coming there. And then as you can see, we are also building the growth markets.So we have 3 layers and we would probably plateau the growth for the U.S., not because the opportunity is not there because we may not want to grow that business beyond that because it may kind of embed the festivity of our margin focus for that market. So the idea is to build the other end markets about mirror the U.S. market, but that's not going to happen in 2 years. It's going to take probably 4 or 4 or 5 years. But that's the idea. And we create 2 or 3 mirrored markets in terms of revenue and margin [indiscernible].
Understood. And finally, on the exceptional items. So this facility that we have sold, it looks like we have only realized maybe 50% or lower of the book value of that asset. So any particular reason why we had to incur such sort of a sharp drawdown on the stated book value?
So one is that, obviously, we had [indiscernible] facility now for a good 2 years considering ever since we bought Chestnut Ridge and post COVID, Singapore or generics just became very unviable. So we had a choice to continue to [indiscernible] just move on because like I said, our focus now is the EBITDA to cash to EPS conversion. And while we took a one-off it, this delivers close to INR 70 crores of margin improvements from EBITDA to PAT. And that made better sense to us and also from a ROCE standpoint. So we have completed everything that we needed to do to build the company for the next 3 to 4 years. And we didn't want to have any overhang or any extraordinary exceptional coming forward in the Strides system, which will not be there. I can confirm that. So it's just more on cutting off the [indiscernible] didn't probably add to the strategy going forward.
Understood, sir. And this INR 15 crore one-off cost increase in the other OpEx, what was that in the personnel cost?
We had a policy earlier where a lot of our colleagues in Strides were on variable pay. As part of our banking exercise and other programs that we did, we realized that only about 70 or 80 people make significant direct impacts to the P&L and everybody else, subject that had sports are very important associates of the company. So rather than making variable way of function of uncertainty for employees, especially when we are coming back from a difficult chapter, we decided to cut off the variable [indiscernible] several of these employees but added it back to their CTCs. So that is why we took a one-off. But we are now provisioning that on a quarterly basis. So you will not see this regularly and the new base of INR 185 crores is now a personal cost, which will be more or less steady state going forward except for standard increases on an annual basis.
Understood, sir. Congratulations and all the best for the coming quarters.
[Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Aman Vij from Astute Investment Management.
Sir, if you can talk about where do we see our CDMO business in the next 2 years?
So the CDMO business, once OneSource is up and running, we had put up a detailed presentation, we said that the business will be about $150 million, $160-odd million at launch year, which is next year, once the NCRT process is complete, and we expect the business to hit $400 million in FY '27. Any other question.
Yes, sir. Sir, I was talking about that one of the products which we had launched a few months back.
You can ask me this several times. I am obliged not to give you any of those information. We work with partners. We are committed to confidentiality. So I can't give you the kind of granularity you are seeking in a CDMO business.
No, no. My question is not on that side, sir. My question was on the other products, basically, which is [indiscernible]. So we had launched this product in a lot of markets, and I believe the U.S. opportunity is also coming in. So do we think are we planning to launch the same? And if you can talk about?
Time for the European and other markets, we are not selling this product in the U.S.
Okay. We don't even plan to enter after the [indiscernible].
Thank you. That was the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you all for joining us today, and thank you for your support all these quarters. And if you have any questions, please do not hesitate to call us or we share to us. We'll be very happy to address them. Thank you all. Have a good evening.
Thank you. On behalf of Strides Pharma Science Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you. You may now disconnect your lines.