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SJVN Ltd
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2024 Analysis
SJVN Ltd
SJVN Limited has demonstrated strategic growth through significant capacity expansion, particularly in renewable energy. The company's installed capacity has reached 2,227 megawatts, bolstered by the recent commissioning of the 75-megawatt Gurhah Solar Power Project in Uttar Pradesh and the 60-megawatt Naitwar Mori Hydro project in Uttarakhand. These projects not only increase the power capacity by 135 megawatts but also contribute approximately INR 270 crores annually to SJVN's revenue. Looking ahead, SJVN anticipates adding another 240 megawatts from renewable projects, including the 50 megawatt Gujrai Solar Power Project, 100-megawatt Raghanesda Solar Project, and 90-megawatt Omkareshwar floating solar project, all slated for commissioning within the current quarter.
The Indian government's approval of SJVN's joint venture proposals with Assam Power Distribution Company Limited and MAHAGENCO marks a significant step in the execution of 1,000 megawatts and 5,000 megawatts of renewable energy projects, respectively. These collaborations are aligned with SJVN's vision of achieving a 25,000 megawatt portfolio by 2030 and furthering its commitment to renewable energy. In line with national objectives, SJVN has also been assigned the task of implementing renewable energy projects in Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Arunachal Pradesh, targeting the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy's goal of a 500 gigawatt capacity by 2030.
The third quarter results reflected a mixed financial performance. Generation from two main hydro projects, NJHPS and RHPS, declined by over 12% due to reduced precipitation and discharge levels. In contrast, the renewable energy projects saw a generation increase of 13.5%, showcasing a shift in the energy mix. Operation revenues went down by 2.7%, and profit after tax dropped by INR 155.64 crores compared to the previous year's third quarter, mainly attributed to the lower generation and a decrease in capacity incentives. However, the company's net worth saw a marginal increase by INR 163 crores, suggesting stability in its financial standing.
Looking to the future, SJVN is well-positioned to capitalize on India's growing energy needs. With the government's interim budget announcement under the Pradhan Mantri Suryoday Yojana, aiming to add 40 gigawatts of rooftop solar capacity by 2025-26, SJVN is expected to play a key role. The company is set to contribute to this initiative in its allotted states, which could bring substantial savings to around 10 million beneficiaries. Moreover, the company's growth trajectory aligns with the vision that energy infrastructure is fundamental to economic progress, with an 8% GDP growth necessitating around a 12% increase in power sector growth.
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Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q3 FY '24 Earnings Conference Call of SJVN Limited, hosted by Elara Securities Private Limited. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rupesh Sankhe from Elara Securities. Thank you, and over to you.
Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of Elara Securities, we welcome you all for the Q3 FY '24 conference call of SJVN. I think this opportunity to welcome the management of SJVN, represented by Geeta Kapur madam. She has taken the additional charge for Chairman and Managing Director. She is also Director Personnel; and Mr. Akhileshwar Singh Director of Finance.
So we will begin the call with a brief overview by the management followed by Q&A session. I will now hand over the call to Geeta madam for opening remarks. Over to you, madam.
Thank you. A very good evening to all of you present here. In addition, we are also accompanied by Shri Sushil Sharma Director of Projects. I'm extremely happy to share that now installed capacity is 2,227 megawatts with the addition of 2 projects in the recent past. We have commissioned one 75-megawatt Gurhah Solar Power Project in the state of Uttar Pradesh with capacity to generate 160 million units of energy per annum. The power from this solar project is being sold to Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation.
We have also commissioned 60-megawatt Naitwar Mori Hydro project in the state of Uttarakhand with capacity to produce 337 million units of energy per annum. As on date, the power has been sold through power exchange. Thus, in terms of latest addition, 135 megawatts more power has been added resultantly, adding approximately INR 270 crores to our revenue per year.
In the quarter ending March 2023, '24, we are further looking at adding 240 megawatts of renewable energy projects, 3 projects being the 50 megawatt Gujrai Solar Power Project in the state of UP, 100-megawatt Raghanesda Solar Project in the state of Gujarat, 90-megawatt Omkareshwar floating solar project in the state of MP, all these 3 will be commissioned within this quarter. As you are already aware that presently the largest operating hydro project, Nathpa Jhakri hydropower station in Himachal Pradesh is owned by us, SJVN, tomorrow the country's largest hydro project, 3,097 megawatt Italian hydroelectric project in the state of Arunachal Pradesh will also be constructed by SJVN.
As far as the progress of the challenging hydroelectric project is concerned, our manpower has already joined the project site. DPI has been revalidated, land acquisition, R&R awards finalized and forest [indiscernible] cases, likely to be finalized soon.
SJVN has been allotted 5,097-megawatt in total 5 projects in Dibang Valley of Arunachal Pradesh. Giving you a brief of our projects. As on date, 9 projects [indiscernible] 2 transmission lines are under operation. Four hydro projects of 1,558 megawatts and 7 solar projects of 1,425 megawatts are under construction.
We are excited to inform you that Government of India has approved our proposal for formation of 2 joint ventures. One did Assam Power Distribution Company Limited by execution of initially 1,000 megawatt, renewable energy projects in Assam and the other joint venture is with MAHAGENCO, which is Maharashtra State Power Generation Company Limited for execution of 5,000 megawatts of renewable energy projects. I'm happy to inform that SJVN has been certified as a great place to work by the great place to work institute after rigorous review of our organization.
The 2 main parameters for the assessments are trust and innovation and experience has scored very high on book. In addition, SJVN has secured INR 10,000 crores construction finance facility for its upcoming renewable energy projects from a group of leading domestic and international financial institutions.
SJVN is the first PSP to enter into such an arrangement for financing, recognizing the technical expertise of SJVN of working in fragile Himalayan Geology, National Highway Authority of India has entered into an agreement with us for monitoring and review of their design services and construction work focusing on slow stabilization.
Regarding the third quarter results, generation from our main 2 hydro projects decreased by 13.36% and 12.79%, that is NJHPS and RHPS respectively as compared to the same period last year, this was mainly due to low precipitation in detachment areas and subsequently low discharge in river Satluj.
Our newly commissioned Naitwar Mori hydropower station started generation and has produced 24 million units and recently commissioned Gurhah Solar Power Station has generated 9 million units still now. The generation from our renewable energy projects has increased by 13.50% this year. Revenue for operations decreased by 2.7% over the same period last year because of lesser generation from the hydro project. Profit after tax decreased by INR 155.64 crores compared to third quarter over the last year, mainly due to lesser generation and slight decrease in capacity incentives. However, net worth has increased marginally by INR 163 crores.
You may kindly refer to the speech of Honorable Finance Minister, Shrimati Nirmala Sitharaman, while presenting the interim budget for the year 2024-'25. As to this scheme announced by Honorable Finance Minister under Pradhan Mantri Suryoday Yojana, 40 gigawatts of electricity will be added by rooftop solar by the year 2025-'26. We are extremely happy to share that SJVN has delivered as one of the key players among [indiscernible].
SJVN has been allotted 3 states, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and Arunachal Pradesh. As envisaged in this team, 10 million beneficiaries will get 300 units free electricity every month. This will result into savings of INR 15,000 to INR 18,000 per annum for them. Subsidiary has also been raised from 40% to 60%. In this interim budget, allocation of INR 10,000 crores have been done for rooftop solar scheme. It is said that infrastructure and energy are 2 crucial enablers of economic progress. Rate of growth of consumption of energy is directly related to the rate of economic growth. In order to have 8% of growth in GDP, growth in power sector needs to be around 12%.
As per the budget speech of Honorable Finance Minister for the year '24, '25, the estimated growth in GDP is 7.3%. But corresponding growth in energy is required is 10% to 11%. As on date, maximum growth achieved was 8.89% for the year '22, '23, that will be kindly be appreciated that to keep the momentum of GDP. Growth in energy is still evolving and there is a lot of scope to be added.
India per capita energy consumption is 1,300 kilowatt per hour, whereas world averages 3,300 kilowatt per hour. You must already be aware that SJVN has been listed as one of the renewable energy implementing agency by Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to meet out the 500 gigawatt target by 2030.
As on date solar projects, firm and dispatchable part, 2,368 megawatts has already been awarded by SJVN. Further tenders of 4,500 megawatts are under finalization and likely to be awarded within this quarter. I once again reiterate that SJVN has a clear vision of installing 25,000 megawatt portfolio in operations by 2030 and 50,000 megawatt by 2040. With the present rate, we will not only achieve the targets that may surpassing. As you all may be aware, today my project portfolio stands at 54,370 megawatt. It's open for any questions, please.
[Operator Instructions] We have a first question from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities.
My first question is on the renewable portfolio. Is it possible for you to let us know what is the growth [indiscernible] portfolio and construction? And how much -- how much of the capacity where we are [indiscernible].
Our total renewable portfolio is approximately total, as said, was [ 54 ]. But under construction, we had a total renewable of 2016, 11 projects. And if you want, I would like to name the project, which we hope to be commissioned in the year 2024, Bagodara solar power project in Gujarat, installed capacity is 70 megawatts. Bikaner solar power project Rajasthan 1,000 megawatts. We are expecting to commission by June 2024, with [indiscernible] solar power project should be 50 megawatts February 2024, Raghanesda solar power project Gujarat 100 megawatt, we proposed to commission by February 2024.
Omkareshwar floating solar power project in the state of Madhya Pradesh 90-megawatt, we proposed to commission by February 2024. In Punjab, we proposed to commission 100-megawatt by June 2024, floating solar power project at Nangal, BBMB, that is Nangal dam, 15-megawatt May 2024. Then we have [indiscernible] SPP project, that is solar power project Gujarat, 100-megawatt by March 2025. Gujarat again Phase 4 solar power project, 250-megawatt, again by March 2025, Phase 7 Khavda solar project in Gujarat 200-megawatt by March 2025, Jamui solar power project in Bihar, 75-megawatt by March 2025. So it's 2,050, that is 2,050 megawatts in the coming year and by March '25.
So my question was [indiscernible] fair amount of projects in this fiscal year, FY '24. And many of them, we want to receive the LoA. Could you please quantify that number where we are L1, where have we ever received LoA?
I would request Director of Finance to brief.
Just where we are the L1.
But trying to figure out 2060 is under construction. Is there any capacity, which cut off for under construction in the next 2, 3 months?
Yes. 5.2 gigawatt is under total portfolio we have owned. We'll provide the least separately because...
Understood, sir. Understood, sir. My second question is on the Nepal, the Nepal Hydro project, have you signed the PDA, what is the status? Do we intend to sell in exchanges? Is it a fair right assumption?
For the project in Nepal, we have signed an agreement with PTC for sale of power, that is Arun 3.
But that for the short term, right? Is it -- does the PTC has a long-term back-to-back contract?
Signed the PDA, agreement with the MoU PTC had renewed.
And back to back here.
Renewed call also. And we are expecting 50% amount -- PPA for 50% of the power will be signed within a month. And balance will be for [indiscernible] we are going to issue tender.
The next question is from the line of Apoorva Bahadur from Goldman Sachs.
So wanted, ma'am what are your thoughts on the HP water cess issue. We have been hearing that the cabinet is considering taking back certain projects, which are executing or increasing the sales. So may be some...
Yes. As far as the HP water cess issue is concerned, the matter is [indiscernible] in the Honorable High Court of HP. And even arguments have been completed and we are expecting result -- and yes, I would say that we are very hopeful that this will not be levered as -- this tax is not as per the [indiscernible] as on date.
Understood. For both the projects, which are under construction, large ones, Arun-3, would you like to share the time lines now by when do we expect commissioning?
For Arun-3, it will be by February 2025. And for Buxar, it will be -- first unit in June '25 -- '24, sorry, and next unit in September '24.
I believe there's some delay in Arun-3 from our previous guidance, Buxar, although we have...
Here, I would like to inform you that as to the power development, PDA signed with Nepal government, the commissioning date was even earlier scheduled in February though for our own purpose, we had squeezed the schedule, but we are very hopeful of commissioning it by as per the PDA in February 2025.
Okay. Another question, we see that this snowfall has been quite poor this year, especially in [indiscernible]. So I wanted to check with you what impact do you see, especially for your hydro generation given that this year itself generation seems to be quite poor.
You're right, there is an over shortfall of -- overall shortfall of 452.57 million units as against our design energy of [indiscernible]. But I would like to inform you that this is a part and parcel of hydro projects. Even in the year 2018 and '19, we were not able to meet our design energy. But this year, again, we've had reasonable snowfall, and so we are hopeful of making it up in next year.
Okay, ma'am. And for this year, whatever revenue under recoveries happened in Q1 and Q3, does that basically coupe in Q4?
Not necessarily because the generation in Q4 will be also same -- in the same pattern. February is on the way and the generation is similar to that, slightly lesser, we can say. So Overall, there is a 10% lesser generation, 10% to 12%.
The peak month for generation are generally June to September, that is very -- it is really not possible to make up in this quarter because it's -- the snow does not melt in this quarter. It is only when the temperature rises, the snow melt.
Right. What I wanted to say is that I believe, as per the regulation, half of our fixed costs get converted to variable cost for hydro projects, right? So in a way, it was fixed cost itself and because the design energy was poor, right? I mean the generation was poor. Hence, should not be design energy also change by the regulator and...
Actually, the design energy is only an indication of the energy for which the project has been installed at the machine can deliver.
Let me clarify you. In fact, currently, in this year, we are not going to meet design energy generation. And for that, we'll be getting [indiscernible] will be claiming compensation for CRC, and we are hopeful that we will get some amount.
Okay. I understood, sir. And now you're saying, the snowfall has been adequate or -- because we saw that it was quite delayed till January, there was no snowfall and...
It was delayed, but we had reasonable snowfall.
In fact, there are the impact of less snowfall also. During summer, this time, the rain was more and the temperature was less in comparison to last year or any other year. There was no -- in fact, in May, June, there was no much heat in the atmosphere. Therefore, the melting was less. It was not due to less snow. It was due to be rising the temperature, less rise in the temperature. So hopefully, it will not repeat.
Generally, it does not get repeated. For example, I will tell you that it was in the year 2018, '19, but then we picked up [indiscernible]. And so generally, the same temperature variations do not get repeated.
It is cyclic only.
It is cyclic.
And ma'am lastly, if you can provide the breakup for incentive income in this quarter?
Incentive, right. The incentive this quarter has been 7.54% and 8.42% was the figure for the same quarter in last year. So there is a difference of about 10%.
Okay. Ma'am, can you provide the breakout of set between UI and data part, capacity sizes?
The data between capacity -- UI and capacity. Right. Right. For this quarter 3, '23-'24, the capacity charges of 42.24% as against 63.47% for the previous year. And UI as I already mentioned was 7.54% this quarter as against [indiscernible] for the year '22-'23. And [indiscernible] for '23-'24 third quarter as against 0.04% last year. So in totality, it is 51.18% this quarter as against 71.93% last year.
We have a next question from the line of Abhineet Anand from 3P Investment Managers.
Just on Buxar and Arun-3, what are the revised project costs?
What is the revised project cost.
In Buxar, there is no change in the project cost .
What is the number?
[indiscernible] will be there. But in Arun-3, there will be slightly change, higher side, and we are expecting that. The entire project, including transmission line will be completed within INR 9,000 crores. It's between INR 8,500 crores to INR 9,000 crores.
And Buxar. So what is the project cost for Buxar?
Buxar project cost is INR 10,400 crores. With some escalation, my -- general escalation, it will be closed within INR 11,000 crores.
Okay. And for Arun-3, you said that presently, there is no PPA, right? 50%...
Presenltly, there is no PPA, right.
I mean 50% PPA saying within a month can be [indiscernible] go for tender and all.
Yes. We are very hopeful within a month, we will sign PPA for 50%.
So what do you have with PTC and renew power? There is an MoU.
We have highlighted some rate also. The PPA under terms and condition, the PPA is under finalization, it is a legal value.
Okay. So I mean, from the RE side, 2,060 megawatt is what you said as a under construction, what is the operational and projects that are won but not under construction.
Operational projects...
I think what you are mentioning is preconstruction strange, right?
Yes. So you can just put in 3 baskets, one that is operational, second that is under construction, which you give. And third is where you have not started construction, but you have LOA or L1 whatever?
Right, I'll give you a complete brief. Under operational as on date, we have 3 projects in hydro, 1,972 megawatts. In renewable energy, 6 projects, 254.5 megawatts, and 2 transmission lines. So that makes a total of 226.5 megawatts to be exact. So under construction hydros is 4 projects, 1,558. Thermal one project, 1,320. Renewable Energy 11 projects 2,050, and transmission line of Arun-3 217 kilometers.
Under preconstruction, we have hydro 4 projects, total megawatts, 4,490, renewables 15 projects, totaled 2,763. Does the total being 7,253 megawatts, 19 projects. Under survey and investigation, Hydro 13 projects, 3,650.9 megawatts, Thermal 1, 660 megawatts, total 14 projects, 4,310.9 megawatts. Under allotment, we have Hydro 10 projects, 2,507 megawatts, renewable in 5 projects, 21,000. PSC 10 projects 12,135, thus total 25 projects 35,648.2.
That's great. I think there is a lot of data. So if we can request the management if somewhere, this could be put, it would be great for all the investors.
Okay. We'll do that.
It will be helpful for everybody, but there is a lot of data that you stored [indiscernible]. And sir, lastly, the 3 Hydro, can you just let us know the regulatory equity separately for all 3.
We will let you know the [indiscernible]. What exactly are you asking for just once again?
Regulated equity for the 3 hydro.
Okay. regulatory equity for the 3 hydro. Right. Right. Fine. So the [indiscernible] hydroelectric project, we have a debt-to-equity ratio of [ 20:20 ] and estimated regulatory equity is 138. For [indiscernible] hydroelectric project, again the ratio we have maintained at 80:20 and 362 is the be regulatory equity. For [indiscernible], again 70:30, this is 70:30 and 784 is the estimated regulated equity.
We have a next question from the line of Santosh Kumar [indiscernible] a shareholder.
I, along with my son, [indiscernible], we are holding 10 lakh shares of SJVN. I'm very happy to find that the Board has maintained the interim dividend of 1.15. Since we are a long-term investor, I would like to know your -- as your ongoing projects, namely Buxar, Arun-3 and Bikaner are going to add substantial power generation capacity to SJVN. I would like to know the approximate commissioning date of these projects period.
Okay. Buxar as I had already indicated was June '24 first unit and...
For Buxar. Arun-3?
Yes, February 2025.
I see. And Bikaner?
And Bikaner June '24.
December '24.
December '24. Right.
Completion. Project will start, partial commissioning will start by September, but we are expecting to complete the entire project 1,000 megawatts by December '24.
I read somewhere that Bikaner 1,000 megawatt will be commissioned by April. Is it true or...
It was there, but it is not possible because the BCR sales today in this model to be manufactured from the domestic sale and the domestic sale capacity has not come up. It is constructing a plant in [indiscernible] but this plant is delayed. Everything is ready. [indiscernible] model, it is delayed, and we are expecting to get first supply by June '24. And from there, we will start part commissioning and will complete the project by December '24.
In fact, more than the dividend you are getting a market value for this year.
Yes.
Yes. I'm happy that you have declared 1.15 per share.
But the dividend will not be much for you.
Dividend will be?
Interim dividend is much value for you in the market...
Yes. It is. It is much value for me.
Congratulations.
We have a next question from the line of Rohit from Antique.
My first question is with the strategy that we earlier wanted to maintain that is in my part, Mori or Arun-3, our maximum sales will happen through the stock market. Is that continue or do we want to explore PPA given from political noise that we have heard.
For Naitwar Mori, currently, we are selling in the market to exchange a selling and easy to exchange. And we are trying to tie up also long-term PPA. But currently, we are getting a very good rate in December that were not good, but in the market, we are getting a very good rate.
If Arun-3 got to be sold into the stock market, let's say, INR 6.5 or INR 7. What could be that additional windfall EBITDA that you would make, say, from your typical fixed cost that you incur.
Yes. This INR 6 plus will be the rate from which we will be getting [Technical Difficulty] we are trying to tie up long-term PPA. But currently, we are selling in the market through exchange. And -- and for Arun-3, 50% capacity, we are going to tie up within a month or 2. And for rest of the capacity, we will be floating a tender for wet power. And hopefully, within a month or 2, we'll be closing that also. And with all this Arun-3 power will be sell as a merchant power. And the RPO obligation has also been given by the Government of India -- allowed by Government to India on credit-based basis.
Can you just elaborate more on the firm hydro part where exactly are we in what stages of construction are we?
Which hydro?.
[indiscernible] project.
[indiscernible] hydro in fact, all are in the 3 stage only. We have to prepare the DPR and finalized sheet [indiscernible] then we'll go for the...
We have a next question from the line of Mohit Surana from Monarch Networth Capital.
Ma'am just one question. We had guided for a capacity of around 12 gigawatt by the end of financial year 2026. Can you please look let me know whether we can achieve that or will there be some kind of delay on execution?
No. I think by the year '26, we surely achieved, as I said, a number of projects are under construction, which will soon be finalized. In this -- in this quarter, it says in March, we are adding 3, as I said, Raghanesda we adding, Gurhah we adding, Omkareshwar we adding and other projects, which are listed to be added for year '24, '25. Total 11 in number and 2,060 from renewables. And then we'll also be commissioning [indiscernible]. So we are very close to our target.
Understood. And one last question related to the rooftop solar. I just wanted to understand what kind of contribution that [indiscernible] can receive in terms of revenue or tariff to the installation and out of the 40 gigawatt, how much -- I mean, you said 3 states are allotted to SJVN. So how much could be the share of SJVN and what kind of numbers can we think of [indiscernible]?
Numbers are yet to come up. We have been around 1 crore households are to be provided rooftop. SJVN has been allocated 3 states. Households have already been identified and soon that list will be shared to us. So what we can say is that the government is aiming at 40 gigawatt, and the SJVN is one of the main peers. And so around 4 to 5 gigawatt will fall in our pocket.
In fact, the modality for the implementation is yet to be finalized. When mobility is unlike, then one we can work out our revenue and profitability.
[Operator Instructions] The participant's line is disconnected. Due to time constraints, we'll take that as the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rupesh Sankhe from Elara Securities for closing comments. Over to you.
Yes. So we thank SJVN management for giving us an opportunity to host this call. And we also thank all the investors and the analysts for joining this call.
Yes, please go ahead, ma'am.
Thanks a lot.
On behalf of Elara Securities, that concludes the conference call. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.